Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 05, 2022

Ukraine SitRep - Casualties Leak - Ukraine Admits Russian Breakthrough - Southern Front Paralysis

There is an report on Ukraine making the rounds that was allegedly written by the higher command of the Ukrainian army and leaked from somewhere.

Dr.Snekotron @snekotron - 12:50 UTC · Aug 5, 2022

Ukrainian channels are discussing what might be a leaked data from AFU General Staff:

- The AFU are only at 43-48% strength
- medical workers at their limit
- small arms and armor are not enough
- 191 thousand soldiers were killed and wounded (only AFU, not including others)
- there is not enough hydraulics and liquid nitrogen for M777 howitzers
- no one cares about the missing - there are no statistics
- the equipment transferred by the West is running out
- western weapons are operated by amateurs, since there are no qualified specialists
- no way to repair weapons on the spot due to the lack of spares and specialists - everything is sent to Poland

BTW, even with this dire report, I would caution against predicting a decisive break in morale. As with Peski, the walking wounded are sent straight back into the trenches

There are some pictures of documents written in cyrillic script attached to the above tweet.

The documents look legit. The overall numbers and issues mentioned seem plausible to me. The high number of casualties (plus the missing) is not astonishing. It would be astonished though if the Russian army and its allies have more than one tenth of those. This is mostly an artillery war and the Russian side has had a vast superiority in guns and missiles.

I wonder about the M-777 need for hydraulic oil and nitrogen. Both are used in the hydraulic recoil mechanism of such guns. Back when I was in the military we had similar mechanisms in our tanks. But they did not consume oil or nitrogen due to normal operation. Only larger maintenance, like changing the gun barrel, would require a readjustment of that mechanism. Is the 'light' howitzer M-777 so badly constructed that those fluids and gases can leak out and thereby become consumables?

The Ukraine has acknowledged that its main reinforced defense line west of Donetsk city has been broken:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy this week described the pressure his armed forces were under in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine as "hell". He spoke of fierce fighting around the town of Avdiivka and the fortified village of Pisky, where Kyiv has acknowledged its Russian foe's "partial success" in recent days.

The Ukrainian military said on Thursday Russian forces had mounted at least two assaults on Pisky but that its troops had managed to repel them.

Ukraine has spent the last eight years fortifying defensive positions in Pisky, viewing it as a buffer zone against Russian-backed forces who control the city of Donetsk about 10 km (6 miles) to the southeast.

General Oleksiy Hromov told a news conference that Ukrainian forces had recaptured two villages around the eastern city of Sloviansk, but had been pushed back to the town of Avdiivka's outskirts after being forced to abandon a coal mine regarded as a key defensive position.

The Russian defence ministry confirmed its offensive.


Source: LiveUAmap - bigger

Everything red on the left of the red line marks recent progress. It looks small but was achieved against the most fortified positions the Ukrainian side had.

Here is an aerial view of a part of Pisky.


bigger

There are ditches (black lines) everywhere and after eight years of artillery war all houses have been more or less destroyed. Still their basements are good fighting positions which are difficult to overcome.

The breakthrough happened after the Ukraine had moved many artillery units from the Donetsk to the southern front. That also explains the lack of counter-battery fire in the east an eyewitness recently lamented about.

Ukraine is still dreaming of a counter-offensive in the south:

Ukraine said the Russian offensive in the east looked like an attempt to force it to divert troops from the south where Kyiv's forces are trying to retake territory and destroy Russian supply lines as a prelude to a wider counter-offensive.

"The idea is to put military pressure on us in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk over the next few weeks ... What is happening in the east is not what will determine the outcome of the war," Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said in an interview on YouTube.

Arestovych is of course wrong. The war was decided in the east when the Ukrainian military followed its bosses orders and moved everything it had to that front. That gave the Russian artillery the chance to take it apart. The Ukrainian tactic, ordered from above, was to hold onto every position until it was completely destroyed. A more mobile defense would likely have been more effective and would have cost less casualties.

The units that Ukraine pulled back from Donbas and has send down to Kherson for its 'million men' offensive were already heavily mauled. They have now been waiting for weeks for the offensive to launch. Meanwhile Russian missiles have hit several of those repositioned units and caused a high numbers of fresh casualties. The removal of Ukrainian artillery from the Donetsk line allowed for the breakthrough at that line.

The long time it took for all that repositioning to happen has also given time for the Russian forces to strengthen its troops around Kherson. There are by now sufficient numbers for the Russian's to launch their own offensive in the area.

General Hromov said Russia might launch its own offensive in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson to try to win back momentum in the war after building up its forces there.

The general got that right. The Russian offensive in the south may launch as early as next week.

There seems to be again a disagreement between the Zelensky regime and the general staff of the armed forces of Ukraine.

The general staff knows that a counter-offensive against Kherson makes no sense as it would cost many more casualties and is likely to be defeated.


Source: Military Land - bigger

(Under NATO symbology friendly artillery is marked as a rectangle with a fat dot in the middle. An X above says the unit is a brigade. Three vertical lines mark a (smaller) regiment  and two a (smaller) battalion.)

I count 4 Ukrainian artillery brigades and three artillery regiments on the southern front. There is currently only one artillery brigade on the eastern front. While mechanized brigades in the east have their own organic artillery units those do not have the big guns that can do the counter-battery fire. 

The general staff does not want to attack in the south. It wants to move a least some of the artillery brigades there back to the Donetsk line.

But Zelenski and his crew want to prevent the referendums that will be held next month in Kherson and other regions under Russian control. That is why they are pushing for a counter-attack there.

The disagreement has paralyzed the Ukrainian army. The units sitting in the south waiting for orders while they get decimated by daily Russian missile strikes. This while they are urgently needed in the east.

Zelensky and Arestovych may be good at making movies. Military geniuses they are certainly not.

Posted by b on August 5, 2022 at 16:49 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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To the last Ukrainian! I really wonder how EU, especially Germany, will survive the winter. And then what happens after winter?

Posted by: leaf | Aug 5 2022 16:55 utc | 1

Poor precious dears.

Sacrificed on the alter of the latter-day saint, Zelensky.

He is my hero.

/sarcasm off

Posted by: Ant. | Aug 5 2022 17:01 utc | 2

Is the 'light' howitzer M-777 so badly constructed that those fluids and gases can leak out and thereby become consumables?

Or just past their expiration date? And I do not even watch military porn, but I do know old stuff of all kinds can often leak.

Posted by: William Haught | Aug 5 2022 17:05 utc | 3

I do not think the M777 howitzer uses liquid nitrogen for anything.

MANPADs, like the 9K38 Igla use nitrogen to cool the seeker head. The nitrogen is located in a small sphere attached to the launcher. I guess this would be liquid nitrogen, although I do not know how one would keep liquid nitrogen pressurized at room temperature or above.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 17:13 utc | 4

It's interesting that people might look at lines drawn on a map and use the position of a line to judge winners or losers when holding that line costs lives.

They want areas on the map to clarify self conceived presumptions in terms of square km and decide one side or the other is 'failing' without every considering the line itself has a cost.

Posted by: S.O. | Aug 5 2022 17:13 utc | 5

I really wonder how EU, especially Germany, will survive the winter.
Posted by: leaf | Aug 5 2022 16:55 utc | 1

---

The aid package being collected for UA will be diverted to the EU core states.

Posted by: too scents | Aug 5 2022 17:17 utc | 6

The reason they're short on Nitrogen is that the Dutch cut their production of it by 30%.

Posted by: JohnBoy | Aug 5 2022 17:17 utc | 7

Who in US/NATO officer corps is actually running this disaster? Have their been any personnel replacements? Putin was right, the US should have realized they lost as soon as the SMO started.

Posted by: casey | Aug 5 2022 17:22 utc | 8

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 17:13 utc | 4

I do not think the M777 howitzer uses liquid nitrogen for anything.

Posted by: William Haught | Aug 5 2022 17:05 utc | 3

Is the 'light' howitzer M-777 so badly constructed that those fluids and gases can leak out and thereby become consumables?

Per this article describing the M777 "The Elevating Mass comprises an open-structured Cradle pivoted from the saddle and a 155mm Cannon mounted in the cradle. The Cradle consists of four large thick-walled tubes with lightweight perforated side frames, and linked together by yokes. The four cradle tubes perform a useful secondary role as nitrogen gas and hydraulic fluid pressure vessels for the recoil systems and the ‘ equilibrators’ or balancing gear."

Link to M777 Description

So nitrogen and hydraulic fluid are part of the recoil absorbing mechanism of the howitzer. I remember discussions by experienced military veterans after the M777s were being sent to Ukraine that the M777 was very lightweight and would not stand up to heavy usage which seems to be what is happening. Hearing this is happening to other NATO gear as well. Maybe the simple, solid, sturdy designs of Russian equipment are better suited for prolonged conflict....

Posted by: mtw | Aug 5 2022 17:24 utc | 9

An NC-17 grindhouse tragicomedy Z movie brought to you live worse than the previous worst movie ever made, Plan 9 from Outer Space, most violent and gory content, absolutely no artistic interest

Posted by: William Haught | Aug 5 2022 17:25 utc | 10

I'd say Russian casualties over the entire war are over 1/10th of the Ukrainian ones, considering the losses from 1st phase / month. Ukrainian numbers are high, even taking into account a 1/3 ratio for killed. Such a senseless loss of lives.
Of course, this could be Russian disinformation to decrease Ukrainian morals, but then to be effective, it should look mildly credible, so Ukrainians must be aware that war doesn't go greatly for them and that they have a lot of casualties.

About the recoil mechanism, could it be because they use them a lot, as in non-stop, meaning they wear fast and either cause leaks or have to change barrels often? There were reports NATO advisers didn't expect them to fire that many shells, and never went for that firerate themselves - meaning barrels are under a lot of pressure, wear down, heat up a lot.

If it took time to reposition Donbass troops South to attack Kherson, then it will take some time before they can be brought back as reinforcements to Advinka and Pesky. Most probably, Russia will achieve a sizable breakthrough before they can come back.
We also know that the few HIMARS they have are down South, we've seen them used on the bridges. Obviously, they don't have any left near Donetsk.

Last but not least, indeed, Russia might attack South as well. Though were I their HQ, I would wait a few weeks for Ukrainian army to try its own counterattack, so that Russian artillery can maul it as much as possible, before committing my own troops to an attack - there would be far less resistance and able men to defend.
Obviously, the best would be for Kiev and Moscow to begin serious negotiations before any of this happens, so that this insane waste of life and resources on both sides can end.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Aug 5 2022 17:29 utc | 11

A wee bit of interesting info on the M777 Howitzer and its weaknesses, and how it leaks all sorts of fluids.


"According to Shashank Joshi, editor of the Economist, artillery provided by NATO countries is difficult to use in the Ukrainian battlefield, due to its high maintenance requirements. This is different from artillery of Soviet origin, which is easy to use and requires little maintenance; it resembles the M16 and AK-47 assault rifles.

On the other hand, the M777 howitzer is considered an “ultra-light” cannon, that is, it weighs only about 4.2 tons compared to its predecessor, the M198 (7,154 kg). And the lighter it is, the more complex and expensive the components are, requiring strict maintenance and proper use.

One of the mechanical parts, with the most complex structure of the M777 cannon, is the anti-repulsion system, the push-up mechanism of the cannon recoil reduction mechanism. This is a very complex gas-hydraulic system, consisting of a hydraulic damper, which reduces recoil, and a pusher, which returns the barrel to its original firing position.

Because the rate of fire must is very fast, in order to avoid detection and counterattack by the Russians, causing continuous hydraulic oil leakage at the joints of the high-pressure pipes, as well as the condition of oil and gas in the reverse-repulsion unit. The howitzer rise is “overheated”, when the M777 has to fire beyond the allowed features. However, even experienced American units often let their artillery fail, for such technical reasons.

Another important factor affecting the accuracy of the M777 cannon is that the barrel is “curved” for reasons of movement. Since the M777 is pulled by a tow hook, attached to the top of the barrel; with the howitzer weight is 4 tons, so when it has to constantly move on rough terrain, it affects the accuracy of the barrel.

When the barrel is affected by external forces, it will lead to bending (even if it is very small), this technical factor will greatly affect the accuracy of the bullet when fired. In other words, under “fire and run” conditions, the accuracy of advertised weapons, such as the M777, turns out to be low."

https://www.defenceview.in/the-fatal-weaknesses-of-the-american-m777-howitzer-in-ukraine-battlefield/

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Aug 5 2022 17:30 utc | 12

@8

Lt. General Roger Coulter -- of course.

Where is he now anyway?

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Aug 5 2022 17:31 utc | 13

@5 S.O.

Just so. Not many people realize that the Kiev (US?) - controlled forces have been indulging in a low-level genocidal campaign against the Donbass people for close to eight years.

Because the west won't recognize Nazi thuggery that dominated the post-Maidan syndrome? Heavenly One-Hundreds?

How many people in the beautiful western democracies do not understand why the LDPR would not accept Kiev control over their oblasts?

Did none of them hear about the Odessa massacre that immediately prompted the Donetsk/Lugansk peoples rejection of Kiev authoritism, and casue them to declare autonomy?

https://www.counterpunch.org/2014/05/09/videos-and-photos-of-the-odessan-massacre/

I guess not. Like most I meet, led and bled by mainstream news. Lost a few friends because they won't understand there are always two sides to a story.

Posted by: Ant. | Aug 5 2022 17:31 utc | 14

That Dutch reduction, I recall, was announced several months prior to the start date of the SMO. When that reduction is lumped in with various shortages taking place around the world since then, it suggests a larger move to reduce farmers' abilities to do their work. Nitrogen; an 800-lb gorilla in the room, sitting next to the RF vs. Ukraine military players' chessboard. But it's not the only gorilla with a ring-side seat. Nor the only military chessboard.

Posted by: ERing46Z | Aug 5 2022 17:32 utc | 15

The latest via LiveUAmap:

SUSPILNE NEWS 📰 @suspilne_news - 18:41 UTC · August 5, 2022

Russian militaries shelled the #Zaporizhzhia NPP for the second time in the last few hours: three hits were recorded on the site of the station. The nitrogen-oxygen station and the combined auxiliary building were damaged.

#Ukraine
#RussiaIsATerroristState

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 17:32 utc | 16

Kill the people who live in the motherland and destroy the infrastructure and then there's no one who's going to defend Ukraine from the jackals. Truly a sad situation.

And by jackals I do not refer to Russia.

Posted by: osi | Aug 5 2022 17:34 utc | 17

I think the oil dampens the recoil, and the gas pushes the tube back into position. Under heavy use these leak
https://www.defenceview.in/the-fatal-weaknesses-of-the-american-m777-howitzer-in-ukraine-battlefield/

Posted by: David W | Aug 5 2022 17:35 utc | 18

Early on there were supposed complaints of the barrels on the 777 getting crooked from overheating due to prolonged rates of fire and needing to be replaced. Perhaps they've finally received replacement barrels to get these systems back into service, but someone forgot to include the necessary accoutrements?

Posted by: Skiffer | Aug 5 2022 17:41 utc | 19

@12 Petri

Read the entire tweet thread. Says a bit more than you accuse. Mendacious trolling.

Posted by: Ant. | Aug 5 2022 17:41 utc | 20

@Petri Krohn

Zaporizhzhia is in Russian hands. The Ukrainians are targeting it.

Posted by: b | Aug 5 2022 17:51 utc | 21

What can you believe about this war? anything is possible. We are probably due for many surprises if the truth ever comes out.

Posted by: paul | Aug 5 2022 17:52 utc | 22

@23

That's why you try to look at both sides.

You cannot understand any argument unless you see either side of the story.

If you only listen to one, you are necessarily jaundiced in that direction.

Posted by: Ant. | Aug 5 2022 17:58 utc | 23

Just playing devils advocate here, maybe Zelenski & his HQ isn't so dumb at strategy, maybe Russians are playing maskirovka and feeding Ukies intel that they will try some big offensive south (or that they are too weak to defend it) - hence good reason for Ukies to try offensive/reinforce it in the first place there.

True details will probably come out in following months or years.

Posted by: Abe | Aug 5 2022 17:59 utc | 24

Ant. @21, b @22

I am sorry for my retweet at @17. I did not think anyone here considers LiveUAmap or the sources it uses as reliable. Yes, the Zaporizhzhia NPP is in Russian hands. If it is hit, it is targeted by Ukrainians or their NATO handlers.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 18:02 utc | 25

@25 Abe

Zelenski is an actor. That's it. Playing his role according to NATO script.

Got fingered in the Panama papers, along with Porky Peroshenko, and his master Koliimoisky. To the disappointment of all, Putin had no foreign accounts.

Yes, he is dumb. Just another figurehead with no substance.

Posted by: Ant. | Aug 5 2022 18:10 utc | 26

They always do that. Quickly spread on twitter it's Russia. Everyone ignores it's Russian areas, Borell and others reply quickly. Part of the well planned propaganda, like the prison himars.

As we speak they're shelling Donetsk and Makeevka, multiple deaths already.

Posted by: rk | Aug 5 2022 18:10 utc | 27

They have cleaned out and burned off the old stockpile of Rusian weapons from Eastern Europe. The west has sent in mostly light arms. If the west was really hell bent on helping Ukraine they woud have a better job and sent better weapons systems.

Now the MIC can replace and refit Eastern Europe with NATO weapons systems. Blood and treasure. Someone elses blood and their treasure. If I could only place Lindsey and company on the zero line for a month.

Posted by: circumpsect | Aug 5 2022 18:10 utc | 28

The war might continue another 1.5 years, after which Western audiences could find that one million Ukrainians have died trying to stop mere thousands of Russian troops, and that reports of Russia's defeat were fake. They will learn all the sacrifice and proclamations about democracy were fake and Ukraine will still receive every beating over the Donbass war that it would have received if it had stayed still, and more.

Posted by: Clubofinfo | Aug 5 2022 18:13 utc | 29

@29 circumspect

NATO have done the deed, trashed the former Federation of Yugoslavia for some mad reason, utterly destroyed Libya which used to be the
African state with the highest standard of living... and turned it into a failed state. Like they tried to do with Syria.

Well done. Fucking heroes. You got admire that.

/sarcasm off again.

Posted by: Ant. | Aug 5 2022 18:19 utc | 30

Question of logic !
Why would the Russians destroy a nuclear power plant under their control?
How can you spread such nonsense and.... how can the mob believe something like that?

Posted by: mm4 | Aug 5 2022 18:28 utc | 31

Yeah, bombing your own prison, that's a bold claim, but well, Ukraine could come up with some reasons why Russia would do it. Bombing a nuclear plant you control, with your own troops stationed around, is peak ludicrous claim from Ukraine. It's even more stupid that it comes just after two Ukrainian claims about Russia bombing Azov POWs - the fact the nuclear plant claim is stupid on its face will reflect on the prison-bombing claims and will discredit them to an extent. You don't make such a series of bold claims so close to each other if you want to maintain a veneer of credibility.

As for maskirovka, some of the troops that took part in the Severodonetsk-Lysyshansk operation might have gone to other fronts indeed, though I wouldn't bet on Kherson. We'll see, but I wouldn't be awfully surprised if things heat up in the Kharkov-Izyum area.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Aug 5 2022 18:36 utc | 32

The Ministry of Defense of Russia on the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Zaporozhye NPP:


On August 5, 2022, from 16.20 to 17.24, Ukrainian armed formations carried out three artillery strikes on the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and the city of Energodar. A total of twenty 152-mm shells were fired.

As a result of the shelling, electricity and water supply are partially absent in the city of Energodar, part of the equipment of power unit No. 3 has been de-energized at the NPP, the generated power of power unit No. 4 has been reduced. In addition, the hydrogen pipeline has been damaged, which caused a flare ignition of hydrogen at the hydrogen station.

By a lucky chance, the Ukrainian shells did not hit the nearby oil and fuel economy and oxygen station, which managed to avoid a larger fire and a possible radiation accident at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe.

The special cynicism of this provocation of the Kiev regime is given by the fact that it was carried out during the international conference of the NPT in New York, under the auspices of the UN.

Posted by: Zaporozhye NPP | Aug 5 2022 18:39 utc | 33

@ Zaporozhye NPP | Aug 5 2022 18:39 utc | 34 with the report about the attack on the Zaporozhye NPP

Empire is desperate and destroying things like the Zaporozhye NPP are examples of that.

I expect Russia to increase their efforts to stop the crazy.

Others around the world are seeing this desperation as well and wondering when it will effect their lives directly.

How fast can the Wurlitzer spin and not disintegrate?

I hope the shit show ends soon.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 5 2022 18:48 utc | 34

Cursedze is acting like shitler in his last days. Delusional, with a big mouth - and no combat experience - he cares NOTHING for the ukrainians used as cannon fodder.

Posted by: Ralph | Aug 5 2022 18:52 utc | 35

Zaporozhye NPP | Aug 5 2022 18:39 utc | 34

They may even be trying to make the area radioactive. Zelensky and the Galicians wouldn't care much - until the wind blew in the other direction.

Thinking of making an area uninhabitable between Donbas and Crimea might sound like a good idea to the US too. They are far enough away.
OR,
There were attempts to make something (dirty bombs) with the radioactive rods and so on, and they are scared that the evidence is still there.
***

However, the actual damage is to the infrastructure and surroundings so all they may really trying to do is a PR exerise, so that Russia is seen as non-capable of defending it.

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 5 2022 18:55 utc | 36

@ Yenwoda | Aug 5 2022 17:24 utc | 10

ROFLMAO

Posted by: Figleaf23 | Aug 5 2022 18:59 utc | 37

Stonebird | Aug 5 2022 18:55 utc | 37

It is PR and fun for Vicky in Washington. Not only npp was hit but also Donetsk. More dead people.
Also Ukr power grid is connected to EU, they send energy to EU. It's revenge because the largest npp isn't sending power to Ursula.

On the other hand the fact is they were unable to prevent repeated shelling of an npp and at least one city in the same day. MSM is quiet in the West, everything is planned

Posted by: rk | Aug 5 2022 19:17 utc | 38

Joe Biden announces $1 billion weapons package for Ukraine.

Posted by: rk | Aug 5 2022 19:20 utc | 39

I forgot to add: this 1bn package includes long range weapons.

Posted by: rk | Aug 5 2022 19:23 utc | 40

"Joe Biden announces $1 billion weapons package for Ukraine."

Don´t forget the 10% vor the Big Guy.

Posted by: Hunter B. | Aug 5 2022 19:26 utc | 41

rk | Aug 5 2022 19:17 utc | 38
"everything is planned",

Tell me when you find out by who. I get the idea that all the best plans are made by mice and not men. (and the worst by Generals hiding in Bunkers) The electricity production angle is interesting as this being cut would add to the energy shambles in the EU, and the power of the US over subsequent EU decisions. (ie. NSII cannot be started without US approval- why, I have no idea.)

Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 5 2022 19:27 utc | 42

In response to
"
Joe Biden announces $1 billion weapons package for Ukraine.

Posted by: rk | Aug 5 2022 19:20 utc | 39

I forgot to add: this 1bn package includes long range weapons.

Posted by: rk | Aug 5 2022 19:23 utc | 40
"

When does a proxy war stop being a proxy war? Even if the US is singled out, the global bankers will continue to chortle about the quality of their Devil curtain hiding them.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 5 2022 19:32 utc | 43

Re: Zaporozhye NPP | Aug 5 2022 18:39 utc | 33 Would you happen to have a link to that post? Thanks

----

I am unable to access the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense website: https://www.mil.ru/

Is this site blocked in the US? I tried several different browsers, including Yandex, but was unable to bring up the site.

Or is their another site where I can find the news briefs and updates by the Russian MOD? Thanks in advance

Posted by: Steven Starr | Aug 5 2022 19:34 utc | 44

@Figleaf23, yep - pretty funny to see real investigative journalism juxtaposed against total gullibility toward the latest fake "leak" - been plenty of those from the other side supposedly showing the "real Russian casualties" which were bogus as well.

Interested to see what's in the latest aid package. Since 155 shells were just announced that should last 3-4 weeks and plenty of 105 shells delivered for the light guns, it might be ATACMS time. Or maybe M109s, which Ukraine is already operating from Norway.

Posted by: yenwoda | Aug 5 2022 19:35 utc | 45

Ant. | Aug 5 2022 17:31 utc | 14
jesus h on rubber crutches made in China, people need to review that article you linked. even for a refresher, cuz we need wings to keep above the bullshit. and, apparently like the light Howitzer, we get leaky with age. speaking for myself and olestra...

but with all the info the article presents, the author still feels compelled to defend the Democratic party and assert that maybe in 2014 Nazis were installed in Kiev by accident. it's fascinating, really. two excerpts:

"...and many of whom were unapologetically “National Socialist,” some even overtly pro-Hitler. The U.S. had indirectly (if not directly) placed them in control, after we forced Viktor Yanukovych out." as if the US doesn't know who it's allied with.

"...only at the very top level was the Democratic Party 100% corrupt. Most congressional Democrats, for example, are not corrupt. They’re not populists, but they take into account not only the interests of their big financial donors: they care somewhat about the public, too." 400 or so lesser evil Dembots in the House can do just as much harm as 90 greater evil war elephants in the Senate.

more lesser evilism!

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Aug 5 2022 19:40 utc | 46

> "Only larger maintenance, like changing the gun barrel, would require a readjustment of that mechanism"
there are reports that in Germany got complains that the delivered contactors would have to be repaired after only 4 weeks of use. In Germany, there are comments that the Ukrainians would fire more fast then planned in construction. German weapons are not built for continuous fire.

Posted by: Peter | Aug 5 2022 19:46 utc | 47

>"Zelensky and Arestovych may be good at making movies. Military geniuses they are certainly not."
All is directed from USA, they say Zelensky what to do, and they have their own goal and strategy

Posted by: Peter | Aug 5 2022 19:53 utc | 48

DOES UKRAINE CASTRATE ALL PRISONERS?

At the beginning of the SMO, a leading Ukrainian military doctor stated publicly, that all wounded Russian prisoners of war should be castrated.

A month ago 144 wounded Azovites were exchanged for 144 captured DPR soldiers. The first news claimed that all had been castrated. None of this was ever officially confirmed. Later it was said that all had been tortured. I think it was Colonel Cassad who said, based on his private sources, that at least some had been castrated.

I posted the above question on a Telegram chat on the Slavyangrad channel. Someone named Sneska replied: "I can confirm via private sources that trophy taking and amputation is common."

Yesterday I watched a live stream on YouTube. One of the participants was a Finnish journalist Kosti Heiskanen, who had just visited the military hospital in Saint Petersburg. My friend Leena asked about the castrations. Kosti Heiskanen confirmed, that the doctors had told him about castrated POWs.

Kosti Heiskanen also wrote about his visit to the military hospital in Uusi MV-Lehti. The relevant passage is as follows:

Lääkäreiden mukaan eniten vammoja ovat aiheuttaneet tievarsipommit, raketit, kranaatit luodit ja ukrainalaisten harrastamat rajut kidutukset. Akatemiassa työskentelevien luotettavien lähteiden mukaan sain tiedon, että siellä hoidetaan sotavankien vaihdon yhteydessä vapautettuja joita on kidutettu ja jopa kuohittu.

For some reason Google translate refuses to properly translate the word kuohita = castrate, and instead offers the word "beaten".

According to the doctors, roadside bombs, rockets, grenades, bullets and brutal torture practiced by the Ukrainians have caused the most injuries. According to reliable sources working at the academy, I was informed that those released in connection with the exchange of prisoners of war are treated there who have been tortured and even beaten (castrated).

Based on this and other evidence I infer, that most or all of the 144 exchanged prisoners had been mutilated. So far we have seen these forms of injury:

  1. Shooting through legs to cause amputation or death.

  2. Blinding by eye-gouging (Kosti Heiskanen mentions this on the video)

  3. Cutting of fingers (Also mentioned by Kosti Heiskanen)

  4. Branding skin in the shape of a swastika. (The naked and murdered girl in the basement of the Azov base in Mariupol. Other former prisoners have shown similar scars or given testimony.)

  5. Castration

On the latest castration video:

I have researched war crimes and massacres for the last 11 years. I have viewed and collected tens of thousands of photos of dead massacre and torture victims. Practically nothing shocks me anymore. A dozen barbecued Azovites for breakfast, with a side dish of guts is just routine.

The previous thing that shocked be were photos of child victims of the Houla Massacre, with their sculls crushed open. The most shocking was the photo of a young girl with a face and eyes, but no brain.

Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 5 2022 17:24 utc | 10

Incredible work by Bellingcat identifying the location where a bound Ukrainian POW was castrated and subsequently executed on video. They even found the likely identity of the perp and got in contact with him - he remains unnamed pending verification.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/08/05/tracking-the-faceless-killers-who-mutilated-and-executed-a-ukrainian-pow/

I am sorry Yenwoda, but I did not open your link. I saw one screenshot from the castration video. It was the most horrifying thing I have seen for nine years. I have no desire to see more of it. The video is a perfect example of massacre porn. According to my own definition:

Massacre porn is video material created, edited and distributed to arouse maximal emotional response.[1] Massacre porn shows victims of violence but generally lacks any context, time, place or any way to identify the victims or their killers. It focuses on gory details and the suffering of surviving victims. This nature of massacre porn discourages any critical analysis of the content.

This is my belief of the origin of the castration video. Oleksiy Arestovych ordered Ukrainian troops to torture and kill Russian POWs and make videos of the massacres. Some of the videos showed Ukrainians killing Russians, but some where staged to look as if Ukrainians were the victims and Russians the perpetrators.

Ukrainians then sent the staged videos to Bellingcat or a similar group in British intelligence, and asked them to "identify" the perpetrators on the videos. The task was made difficult, as none of the edited videos showed faces. The latest video surfaced when a "perfect" match was found. Sometime recently RIA Novosti interviewed a Buryat solder of the Russian Armed Forces. The solder was wearing a Texas-style hat. The castration video showed a perpetrator with a similar-looking, if different color har. The hat is available for sale on ALiExpress for US $17. The match was perfect, as it fit the racist stereotype of Russians as Asiatic hordes. As the video shows no faces, it is impossible to know if any of the people are actually from Buryatia.

I may be wrong. Bellingcat may have found some detail that disproves my analysis.

Russian investigators have noticed, that the perpetrators on the video wear Ukrainian issue shoes, some specially made with the colors of the Ukrainian flag.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 19:53 utc | 49

psychohistorian @ 43

Interesting article. I continue life with a significant amount of research into "the cabal". The cabal is derived from the word Kaballah which can be also spelled Caballah. It is deep dark hole where one can be easily lost.

It is a religion and it has been around for a long time in many forms. By a long time I mean prior to the rise of Egytptian civilization. A work of fantasy, speculation, reality, and a mutitude of religions. A spiritual force of great darkness that easily move from generation to generation through organizations that rise and fall.

As such is is nearly impossible to talk and write about but it is an epic story that should be put to music.

Posted by: circumspect | Aug 5 2022 19:57 utc | 50

... Lt. General Roger Coulter -- of course. ... Where is he now anyway?

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Aug 5 2022 17:31 utc | 13

He turned up in public Jun 4th,, there’s YouTube video, google “roger cloutier rotc san diego”. Another commenter provided the link but I can’t remember who, sorry.

Not a word on where he’s been all this time, almost as thought there was never any question as to whether he was trapped in Azovstal with his mail-order nazis or not .... almost.

Are all those clowns (Roger Cloutier, Trevor Cadieu and Eric Olson) going to silently and belatedly ease themselves back into non-Azovstal society as thought nothing happened?

I wonder if they will all, on reflection, appear to have just a few too many miles on the clock and absolutely no verifiable story to account for their whereabouts during and after the Azovstal siege.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 5 2022 20:09 utc | 51

@Petri Kohn, the Bellingcat article does not include or link to the video itself, or any screenshots from the graphic portions of it. So you can read it without fear of coming across that. I will just note that if Ukraine staged the video, they managed an impressive information coup by getting a pro-Russian telegram channel to be the first to publish it. I don't think that is within the realm of serious possibility, frankly.

The evidence they collect, summarized briefly:
- geolocation of the site of the torture/execution
- confirmation that "Akhmat" group was separately filmed at the site, including cowboy hat guy w/face shown
- further videos of same group previously at Azot including clearer view of face, plus images of hat, distinctive bracelet, combat shirt that match execution film
- white car w/black Z - same model, identical markings in execution film and Azot footage

Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 5 2022 20:11 utc | 52

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 17:32 utc | 16

Why are you posting fake news, such an outright lie?

Only psychopaths can do that.

Posted by: Olivier | Aug 5 2022 20:18 utc | 53

The inexorable embrace of freedom is progressing westward.

All those nazi forces drawn to the Russian magnet and demising in their self constructed 'fortification trenches'. Good news day.

I see vids of massive traffic jams as Nikolaev residents head west and outta town asap.

Freedom approaches.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 5 2022 20:19 utc | 54

Ey B, just by the way - Vielen Dank für diese Erfrischende Oase! :)

Posted by: Macpott | Aug 5 2022 20:21 utc | 55

Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 5 2022 17:24 utc | 10

Incredible work by Bellingcat

Bellingcat is a branch of MI6 and fucking manipulative liars. It was created two days before the MH17 crash.

Posted by: Olivier | Aug 5 2022 20:32 utc | 56

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 19:53 utc | 49

Imho should be deleted.

Posted by: Olivier | Aug 5 2022 20:33 utc | 57

Barfingcat = guaranteed false narrative

If barfingcat vomits the hairball up you know it's bogus. Pro-empire disinformation is the sole reason barfingcat exists. There is literally no other purpose to that organization. It was created because everyone already knows VoA and RFE-RL are CIA mouthpieces so something new was needed.

Furthermore, referencing barfingcat as some kind of authority marks a poster as a guaranteed troll and imperial representative. The way aware and genuine posters use barfingcat assertions is as proof of the falseness of a claim: "We know this is fake because barfingcat claims it is true."

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 5 2022 20:50 utc | 58

re: William Gruff | Aug 5 2022 20:50 utc | 58

How did you know they were lying?

They were talking!

Posted by: Perimetr | Aug 5 2022 20:54 utc | 59

I have had more than a little sympathy for the people of Ukraine since the beginning of (((Blinken's))) War. When (((Blinken))) rejected Putin's plea to discus NATO's proximity to Russia's border, I thought "Wow! Don't the morons in charge of Ukraine realise that Russia has spent the last 20+ years preparing for possible military confrontation with US-NATO!? And US-NATO have already chickened out!!??"

One can only assume that there is a helluva lot of people in Ukraine addicted to Blind Faith and an apalling lack of curiousity.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Aug 5 2022 21:01 utc | 60

I am unable to access the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense website: https://www.mil.ru/

Is this site blocked in the US? I tried several different browsers, including Yandex, but was unable to bring up the site.

Or is their another site where I can find the news briefs and updates by the Russian MOD? Thanks in advance
Posted by: Steven Starr | Aug 5 2022 19:34 utc | 44

I just tried it.

"Access denied."

Maybe they aren't allowing access from US computers?

Posted by: Michigan Dude | Aug 5 2022 21:02 utc | 61

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 5 2022 19:32 utc | 43

I can’t shake the suspicion that we’re in a phase where US crazies have made enough money, sacrificed enough Slavs to Moloch, and now want to force RF into a ceasefire at the current lines so they can keep Odessa, keep most of their newly acquired farmland, keep Transnistria behind their own lines to menace when needed, and then gradually rearm Kiev for another hot phase somewhere down the road. Without Odessa and sea access, Ukraine becomes an airless dung heap.

I was half expecting hits near Zaporizhzia NNP, it’s so extreme it almost has to be US ordered, it’s a threat to EU countries that buy electricity from UA but it’s mainly a threat to RF because they care about the territory whereas US/UA crazies manifestly do not.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 5 2022 21:06 utc | 62

@ Michigan Dude RE mil.ru/.
The original Russian language works fine here (France). But I can't get the Fr version nor the Eng one. Could indeed be blocked by FreeWorldSanctions.

Posted by: chb | Aug 5 2022 21:08 utc | 63

anon2020 @62

Doubtless the Empire and its NATOadies can see that they are losing and would like to cut their losses, but it will take some very serious losses on Russia's side to convince them to freeze the conflict where it currently stands. Demilitarization and denazification of the entire Ukraine is still the Russians' minimum demand. While the Russians' preference is clearly for minimal damage to the Ukraine, that does not take priority over demilitarization and denazification. By the same token, demilitarization and denazification necessitates rooting out what there is of US influence in the Ukraine, since the Nazis are how the US has chosen to express its influence in the region. In other words, as things stand there is no way for the empire to cut their losses. The US losses in the Ukraine will have to be complete before the Russians call it quits.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 5 2022 21:24 utc | 64

191 thousand casualties, at 1 death to 2 injured (1d/2i), is almost 64k dead and 127k injured. Even at 1d/3i the numbers of definitive losses are huge: almost 48k dead and 143k injured.

At phase 1, Russia had lots of casualties, Ukraine had images of these every day. Russia MoD announced the total was 1351. Multiply that by 2 if you will.
But there's no way that in phase 2 Russia had 1/10th of those Ukraine's casualties. If it had, there would also be lots of images in Ukraine's propaganda.

The 1/10th ratio was just the one announced for artillery by Ukrainian sources. It could be even a higher difference in reality. And then there's all the casualties that Ukraine can't do: long range missiles and aircraft missions against places with high concentration of personnel (as Russia's MoD phrases it).

For each time Russia uses a Kalibr to destroy 100 or 200 Ukrainians at once, how many Russians are killed by Ukrainian artillery or sabotage missions or civilian drones or territorial defense hiding inside trenches? One? Two? So, considering this, a 1/50 or even 1/100th ration of casualties in phase 2 would be more credible.

So, if Russian TOTAL definitive casualties (dead) are above 3k (and from 6k to 9k injured considering the 1d/2i or 1d/3i ratio), I'd be surprised.
And as 'b' and Österreich Bundesheer said after full Lugansk liberation, Russia was conquering terrain since the start and now even has a numbers advantage that it didn't have in February. With more experienced troops, that can rest while their substitutes keep grinding, and come back later.

If on the other side is an army at 45%, drinking from reserves and/or cannon fodder, and running out of everything, what do these lunatics in Kiev are waiting for to negotiate the surrender? Just so they can be popular among the North/Western Ukrainians that like to hear "no surrender" or "counter-attack coming next"? It's easy since they're not the ones dying... And some of them are getting richer...
This is the opposite of leadership. This is madness.

And that's why that coup in 2014 was needed. With Yanukovych in power, there would be no war against Donbass and Russia, and definitely no war "until the last Ukrainian". And Crimea would still be in Ukraine. And Ukraine would be negotiating better terms to join European Union. And Europe would not suffer with USA imposed sanctions "against Russia". NATO would still be brain-dead. Russia would still sell its gas to Germany. Inflation would be under control. The €uro wouldn't have dropped to parity with the dollar.

But after retreating from Afghanistan, the MIC (military Industrial Complex) oligarchy wouldn't have as much profit. There would be no big military conflict to justify the contracts the Congress/White House like to sign where they decide to so many billions from the taxpayers. And that's what's unacceptable to those in Washington/London/Brussels. Doesn't matter if they're blue, red, or yellow. All they care is about their green, and no one else!
God bless the offshore account.

Posted by: Carlos Marques | Aug 5 2022 21:26 utc | 65

I have many queries about what is really going to happen in Germany when the gas crisis really hits. I have not really seen much discussion of this anywhere in the press. What is the state of politics in Germany?

First will ordinary consumers actually accept the levy on gas which will mostly be given to the big gas importers?

Second what will be the impact on Germany's more than 2 million guest workers and immigrants. If as is expected the big industries- chemicals, glass and ceramics have to cut back production will not these guest workers be the first to be laid off? Surely there will be massive negative spin off for Turkey in particular.

Third What is happening to the German green movement, now that coal and nuclear are back. is there any blow back or rage, or have they just completely accepted it. if so they must grasp that their dream run is over- forever.

Perhaps this topic is well covered in the German media, but I see little in the English media

Posted by: watcher | Aug 5 2022 21:30 utc | 66

@Petri Krohn
Much respect for the work you are doing. that's got to eat at the soul. I've definitely seen some disturbing things over the years, watching these wars unfold. But what you have described is beyond brutal!
these savages need to be held accountable for their crimes.
the work you do might make this possible! koodos to you my friend!
much love and respect!

Posted by: BurnEye Minds3rdEye | Aug 5 2022 21:30 utc | 67

@Steven Starr #44:

Or is their another site where I can find the news briefs and updates by the Russian MOD?

Russian MoD Telegram channel: https://t.me/s/mod_russia

It’s in Russian, so you will have to use Google Translate, Yandex Translate or Telegram app’s built-in translation feature.

While we’re at it, I also recommend checking out Russian MoD Rutube channel: https://rutube.ru/channel/24675435/videos/

Posted by: S | Aug 5 2022 21:39 utc | 68

I can see high pressure nitrogen being part of the recoil system. The gas struts in my car used for the hood and trunk lid W use HP nitrogen too - but it isn't a consumable. Why on earth would you design something for use on a battlefield that required resupplying liquid N2.?
Interesting how many people keyed on that right away.

Posted by: ian | Aug 5 2022 21:39 utc | 69

casey @8 asking why the US handlers don't realize the war is lost and let the Ukrainians negotiate.
That presupposes that the goal of the US is to help Ukraine win.
The goal was actually stated openly by Lindsey Graham - to empty Ukraine down to the last Ukrainian (so that the US can loot more easily).

Posted by: wagelaborer | Aug 5 2022 21:43 utc | 70

Perimetr @59

Precisely.

If the empire uses barfingcat as the origin for a story then you know it is fake. If there were any hint of truthiness at all that a publisher could lean on then the story would be given to the Washington Bezos Post or the New York Langley Times.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 5 2022 21:44 utc | 71

all work from bellingcat I've seen is literally incredible==no credibility whatever. unbelievable. not based on reality.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 5 2022 21:47 utc | 72

Eight years to prepare and this is the best they can do. The SMO, in terms of military-political strategy, is Shite, Manure & Offal.

Posted by: quasi_verbatim | Aug 5 2022 21:52 utc | 73

wrt liquid nitrogen for M777 howitzers perhaps I can help. In the old days we used compressed air to charge the accumulators and such on aircraft. The accumulator is a vessel (also found in your home heating system if you have hot water heat) that cushions shocks. When the gun is fired the barrel moves back forcing hydraulic fluid into this vessel. The air inside is compressed which makes the resistance increase as travel increases. When the lateral motion has been absorbed, the high pressure air in the vessel pushes the gun barrel back to its firing position so it can be loaded and fired again.

though I am not an artilleryman I sat next to a former one for many years and he related that on the mobile artillery he worked with, the air pressure would sometimes leak out and there would not be enough oomph to make the barrel return, so troops would push it back to where it belongs. this was only a temp fix and as air pressure was lost it became harder and harder to do so and the firing became much more violent as there was no longer a cushion of air to absorb the force of firing the gun. any time you have hydraulic cylinders there is always the possibility of leakage. happens all the time. it can be repaired.

as for liquid nitrogen, the gun does not use liquid nitrogen but does use high pressure nitrogen gas in those accumulators or expansion vessels. The reason for using nitrogen is that it is non flammable, the atoms are fairly big, the gas is dry which helps control corrosion of the metal parts. In the old days we used high pressure air compressors to do this with the associated gasoline or diesel engines to run them. Now Liquid Nitrogen (LIN) carts are used that are filled with liquid nitrogen but are able to provide high pressure gas for use as required. the boiling of the liquid nitrogen provides enough pressure to charge to 3000 psi (more than 200 bar) or more

Posted by: dan of steele | Aug 5 2022 21:55 utc | 74

William Gruff @64--

The US losses in the Ukraine will have to be complete before the Russians call it quits.

That's been apparent since SMO day 1 but so damn many are blind to that point. As you've noticed, I ceased trying to educate on the reasons for all SMO aspects as the explanations are necessarily long and are scrolled past.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 5 2022 22:03 utc | 75

And then we get pukes like the one @73--just another fruit fly.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 5 2022 22:05 utc | 76

ian @69: "Why on earth would you design something for use on a battlefield that required resupplying liquid N2.?"

I am not an expert but it doesn't surprise me that the N2 and hydraulic fluids would need replacement. Keep in mind that the M777 was intended to be used in rapid deployment, air-lifted or paratrooper operations. Lots of engineering trade-offs were made in favor of cutting weight. This means that the carriage must be lightweight and thus cannot be expected to disperse much of the gun's recoil. Next the recoil mechanism itself will have to be lightweight. In absorbing the gun's recoil much of the energy of that recoil gets entropied into? Yep, heat.

Experiment: Rapidly open and close your trunk lid several times forcing it to open and close much faster than normal, then place your hand on the struts. Ouch!

The M777 can apparently be reloaded and fired again faster than the lightweight recoil mechanism on it can shed the heat from the previous shot, and they don't have the thermal mass to absorb more than a few shots worth of heat. Overheating the recoil mechanism will cause the seals to break down and then your gun turns into a hot oil fountain on the next shot.

This is all just guesswork based upon the knowledge that the gun's design was steeply biased towards being lightweight. You never get features like that for free in engineering.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 5 2022 22:08 utc | 77

karlof1 | Aug 5 2022 22:03 utc | 75

"... as the explanations are necessarily long and are scrolled past."

I read everything you post... short or long ... and am grateful for all. No scrolling here.

Posted by: crone | Aug 5 2022 22:10 utc | 78

Posted by: Yenwoda | Aug 5 2022 20:11 utc |

Do better. The Buryat with the cowboy hat is PMC Wagner not with the Chechens. This is just lazy propaganda at this point. But please explain the shoes in the video and why everyone happens to be wearing Ukr issued clothes. I’m not even arguing Russians wouldn’t do this sort of thing, I’m saying this is not that. Referencing a site known to “adjust” evidence to fit a narrative is not convincing. And getting the film onto Russian telegram channels wouldn’t be that hard in a world where everyone wants to break news rather than provide reliable information.

Posted by: Lex | Aug 5 2022 22:13 utc | 79

karlof1 @75

Yeah, that's why I try to pitch in every now and then.

It really is amazing how so many people insist upon thinking this conflict is just a land grab by the Russians and that some amount of territory will satisfy them. They don't understand the conflict even the slightest bit.

Posted by: William Gruff | Aug 5 2022 22:14 utc | 80

@Petri Krohn #4
Recoil mechanisms are generally some type of hydraulic or pneumatic compressor. As the M777 is intended to be light, it seems pneumatic is likely.
And in turn, keeping the pneumatic cylinder filled is non-trivial especially if you want to do things like maintenance or repair damage. I can see liquid nitrogen being used to fill the cylinders after repair/maintenance and resealing; the subsequent regasification would fill the pneumatic cylinder to desired pressure.
You wouldn't want to use oxygen or any other flammable gas, for example, as that could be explosive if the recoil mechanism is ruptured.

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 5 2022 22:36 utc | 81

Now Saker is effectively gone.
Everyone intelligent is compromised or copied.


A few of us really don't give a shit.


Fuck you everyone.
Except you b


Lottsa luv
Serious my bro

Posted by: ButtholeSurrfersButN | Aug 5 2022 22:44 utc | 82

The english retelling of the leak is compacted even over the already compacted retelling in Russian in last pictures.


- no way to repair weapons on the spot due to the lack of spares and specialists - everything is sent to Poland

This, for example, was specifically said about M777 fire control units, which allegedly proved very vulnerable to devris and shards.

* * * * *

B asked if 777 is bad quality weapon. To me it more looks a narrow niche instrument abused. It is like using air rangers to stop tank army, their performance would be awful. And 777 was made to be air ranger of howitzers. Everything was sacrificed for weight. 777 had to be jetissonned or airlifted at best, so the ranger could have heavy fire for their first hours when creating a new bridgehead. They were not supposed to last long or pledge "general war". Now they are being abused for roke they were not created for and of course they fit badly. It was all just about PR...

* * * * *

As for Russia using Avdeevka and Peski offensive to "divert Ukraine from Kherson" i believe to be half-true.

I believe it was the "n+1 threats" strategy that Russia uses in Ukraine ever since Phase 2 was declared. Last week it was discussed in RuNet and there were more potential directions identified, west of Kharkov (toward Sumy) and east of it (to cut away Kharkov from south).

Basically Russia just creats more threats than Ukraine can counter, then asks Kiev "which one you gonna give away? You can protect almost all of Your targets, but one you would have to live unprotected, we would come and take it, just choose for US what it will be"

This time Ze decided tk reinforce southern front and to keep Kharkov region well defended, which meant no rei forcement for Donetsk region. Okay, says Russia, you made the choice, we abide - and went for Peski.

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 5 2022 22:46 utc | 83

Bellingcat are clowns, known to have vomited after cup of kvass.

Posted by: NJH | Aug 5 2022 22:54 utc | 84

It’s in Russian, so you will have to use Google Translate, ...

Posted by: S | Aug 5 2022 21:39 utc | 68

Dude, that's lame. They have pre-translated channel from get go!!!

Install Telegram application to phone or/and desktop and read it in English

Example: https://t.me/mod_russia_en/3145


* * * * *

www.mil.ru

Access denied."

Maybe they aren't allowing access from US computers?

Posted by: Michigan Dude | Aug 5 2022 21:02 utc | 61

Probably. Because a lot of DDoS probably coming from USA.

Also remember, there are two mil.ru servers, one for Russia and one for West. It was all discussed in comments here in February, when DDoSes started. You probably can peg mil.ru to Russian IP address locally, or you can use some VPN service with exit point in Russia. But i thinj you can just get all the same from Telegram.

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 5 2022 22:58 utc | 85

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 19:53 utc | 49

If Russian POWs were routinely being mutilated, the Russian government and Russian media would not be silent about it. They'd be on the floor of the UN, showing everybody the victims.

Unfortunately, lurid stories of the enemy doing unspeakable acts of bestial evil are as old as war itself. Most of the time, war is just the banal type of evil.

Posted by: ZX | Aug 5 2022 23:02 utc | 86

William Gruff @64--

The US losses in the Ukraine will have to be complete before the Russians call it quits.

That's been apparent since SMO day 1 but so damn many are blind to that point. As you've noticed, I ceased trying to educate on the reasons for all SMO aspects as the explanations are necessarily long and are scrolled past.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 5 2022 22:03 utc | 75


Completely agree! The idea that Russia would even entertain the possibility of a partition and preservation of some part (e.g. Western Ukraine) under the current regime is preposterous. But people still toy with the idea, presumably because they cannot fathom that this war is not fought for territory.

I am convinced that Russia would be quite content to have New Ukraine in its current borders but politically neutral and under a friendly regime. I am afraid, however, that we are way past that arrangement, considering the level of atrocities and hate mongering. It is as if the atrocities (like in Yugoslavia) are committed on purpose to make coexistence impossible.

Posted by: Pagan | Aug 5 2022 23:07 utc | 87

History Legends contributes to understanding the current maneuvering.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evV-ef2lsAc

Skip past the promo as there is excellent analysis in the latter part as well.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 5 2022 23:08 utc | 88

Posted by: c1ue | Aug 5 2022 22:36 utc | 81

Recoil mechanisms are generally some type of hydraulic or pneumatic compressor.

I have not read anything about this, but just by looking at how howitzers operate I made this analysis.

The recoil cylinders operate in two phases, one pneumatic and the second one hydraulic.

  1. In the the first phase, as long as the shell is still in the barrel, the compression of the cylinder is only pneumatic. The barrel is relatively free to move backward, without dislodging the gun or affecting its aim. The compression force is only strong enough to slowly return the barrel to its initial position.

  2. After the shell has exited the barrel, the cylinder begins hydraulic compression. Hydraulic oil is bled through some tight hole. This phase captures the kinetic energy of the backward moving barrel, before the piston hits the end of the cylinder. The even deceleration of the barrel limits the force exerted by the spades against ground, thus limiting the movement of the howitzer between rounds.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 23:12 utc | 89

re: S | Aug 5 2022 21:39 utc | 68

Thank you!

Posted by: Steven Starr | Aug 5 2022 23:13 utc | 90

William Gruff @80--

Thanks for your reply. An addition to your excellent surmise @77 is Airborne operations are meant to be swift with the strike forces quickly reinforced by regular troops and standard weapons. By their nature, Airborne troops aren't expected to engage in counter-battery duels, their light howitzers are for very local support to hold the airhead/dropzone. You may have noted gliders are no longer employed is such operations. They were tasked with transporting heavier support weapons engineered for longer operations. Helos replaced them. I'm sure you've seen pictures from 'Nam of Huey's with a howitzer dangling from a cable underneath it while in-flight to a firebase.

The US Army has very few types of artillery:

M119A3 105mm light towed howitzer;
M777A2 155mm medium towed howitzer;
M109A7 Paladin 155mm self-propelled howitzer;
M142 High Mobility Rocket Artillery System (HIMARS), a wheeled launcher capable of firing 227mm rockets or Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles; and
M270A1 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), a self-propelled launcher capable of firing 227mm rockets or Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles.

Russia has five towed, tube-type pieces, nine self-propelled types, and six MLRS types, all listed here. As you can see, the difference as b has noted is impressive and immense.

NATO could send Ukraine ALL its artillery, towed and self-propelled, and still not match Russia's. It's become very clear that NATO's lack of logistic ability will allow Russia to easily win--to the point where the Full-Scale War Jens warned about can't happen because NATO can't mount one.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 5 2022 23:26 utc | 91

William Gruff #80

It really is amazing how so many people insist upon thinking this conflict is just a land grab by the Russians and that some amount of territory will satisfy them. They don't understand the conflict even the slightest bit.

It is so sad to see so many people just screaming 'hate russia, hate russia' as they sit in their armchairs. They are incapable of recognizing the simple fact that Russians and especially Ukrainians want peace just as much as themselves.

Programmed robots until you or they push the reset button.

I recall in the early days of the liberation action, so many kept insisting on a line here or a river there as some imaginary 'enough point' for Russia. Delusion and wilful ignorance of the enormity of the nazi infestation of the Ukrainian media and government apparatus fully enabled by the west. As if the Ukrainian people could have the temerity or will to live outside of the yoke of the oppressive nazi machinery. This is so sad and so unnecessary.

I can understand the trolls motivated by their pieces of silver but the ignorance is truly oppressive some days.

I keep my eye on the prize and every day appreciate that such a major transformation in global affairs and communications is manifesting and am blessed to be alive to witness and participate in standing up against repression in all its forms. Tonight I will sit by a small fire and toast these times with past comrades who would so enjoy this turning around. Stay well and savor the free air while we can.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 5 2022 23:26 utc | 92

Posted by: S | Aug 5 2022 21:39 utc | 68

Russian MoD Telegram channel: https://t.me/s/mod_russia

It’s in Russian, so you will have to use Google Translate, Yandex Translate or Telegram app’s built-in translation feature.

The Russian MoD also has an English language Telegram channel at https://t.me/s/mod_russia_en

This is their latest:

​​🗓 Top News Today

⚠️ On August 5, 2022, between 16.20 and 17.24, Ukrainian armed formations carried out three artillery strikes on the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and Energidar city. A total of twenty 152-mm shells were fired. As a result of the shelling, Energodar city is partially without electricity and water supply, part of the equipment of power unit No. 3 is de-energized at the NPP, and the generating capacity of power unit No. 4 is reduced. In addition, hydrogen pipeline was damaged, resulting in a hydrogen flare ignition at the hydrogen plant. The fire was quickly extinguished by the emergency services. Fortunately, the Ukrainian shells did not hit the oil and fuel facility and the oxygen plant nearby, thus avoiding a larger fire and a possible radiation accident at Europe's largest nuclear power plant.

💥 It has been reliably established that the Ukrainian leadership continues to actively prepare and carry out cynical provocations with civilian deaths in order to further discredit and accuse the Russian Armed Forces of carrying out indiscriminate strikes against social infrastructure.

◽️ 9 locals have been injured in a conflict with unit commanders of 92nd Mechanised Brigade of AFU In Kharkov Region. The compound's command attempted to evict civilians from their homes in order to house foreign mercenaries, as well as equip military and artillery positions. Nationalists and foreign mercenaries opened fire to suppress the protests, leaving 4 local residents in Shestakovo and 5 in Verkhnyi Saltov with gunshot wounds of varying degrees of severity.

📹 Ministry of Defence continues to publish footage of Russian servicemen's combat operations in the special military operation zone: operation of Orlan-10 multifunctional unmanned aerial vehicle crews and operation of Western MD’s flamethrowers.

◽️ Russian Ministry of Defence continues to recount the exploits of those involved in the special military operation.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/3145

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Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 5 2022 23:27 utc | 93

> Posted by: ZX | Aug 5 2022 23:02 utc | 86

As for castration, i saw no reports that happening, and i hope it did not. However
...

1. Ukrainian official saying on Ukrainian TV he already ordered military doctor to castrate Russian POWs was real.

Babbling on TV is not the same as issuing written and registered paper order, and even if such was registered (but never leaked) the grunts might sabotage it. So, hopefully it was kot happening, but the claim was made, proudly and in public, by Ukrainians.

2. Shooting POWs in the legs was done public, as was beating interrogation of a dying man who could speak no more.
So, while castration could happen or kot, other "transgressions" were real. You might call them lesser atrocities.

Now, if we "scroll past" SMO and back to 2014, then EuroMaidan falks were recoding their gorging eye of a capured Berkut policeman. There were some calls to call medics cut short to "no medics for him, he is of Berkut"

The "White book" also writes about hand joints being drilled as a matter of intensive interrogation.

This was made in 2014 by "nationally-aware Ukrainians" over wrong Ukrainians. Why would them not do the same to "Russian orks" when they can if they did tk their own? Any practical reason to keep hopes high?

Posted by: Arioch | Aug 5 2022 23:30 utc | 94

I can’t shake the suspicion that we’re in a phase where US crazies have made enough money, sacrificed enough Slavs to Moloch, and now want to force RF into a ceasefire at the current lines so they can keep Odessa, keep most of their newly acquired farmland, keep Transnistria behind their own lines to menace when needed, and then gradually rearm Kiev for another hot phase somewhere down the road. Without Odessa and sea access, Ukraine becomes an airless dung heap.

Posted by: anon2020 | Aug 5 2022 21:06 utc | 62

I doubt RF will wish to deal with the US who have no legal status within Ukraine, indeed their presence means that demilitarization and denazification will not have been achieved. They wish to deal with a sovereign state at the end of this or new sovereign states set up following the SMO police action. Both the current Ukraine regime and the US are 'agreement-incapable.'

I think the only way Ukraine can sue for peace at this point is first by overthrowing Z, then establishing an entirely new government and mission, then unconditional surrender and then kicking out all non-Ukrainian nationals until terms are fully negotiated. Something like that.

This seems highly unlikely. More likely is that they gradually lose all territory between Odessa and Kiev at which point the Urainian regime is no more and there is a tabula rasa situation giving the Ukrainian people a chance to create a genuinely neutral and independent state or new oblasts within RF or whatever. In all cases they will have to be completely separate from the US-NATO-EU interference.

China just announced it has ceased interfacing with the US on a broad array of issues. Russia is already there with the US, I believe, and treating most EU nations as officially 'unfriendly.' The bifurcation of the two major blocs continues and as long as Ukraine kinetic operations assist in this dynamic RF has little reason to want them to end and certainly no reason whatsoever to want to deal with any 'agreement-incapable' regimes like current Ukraine govt or USG.

Posted by: Scorpion | Aug 5 2022 23:54 utc | 95

First a thank you for MoA for picking up my tweet. I'd like to make a couple of comments on some of the discussion here.

The Russian OSINT group Rybar reportedly used a Ukrainian General Staff source on losses, which only included the Armed Forces (no national guard, territorial defense, foreign militias, etc). When that source stopped reporting at the beginning of May, they were tracking 30k+ deaths just for the AFU. 3 months in, another 3 months, double that, and you get to 60k+

However, there is a huge category of uncounted casualties in the territorial defense, which are increasingly being tasked with heavy fighting. MIAs are also uncounted. With all these caveats, that 60k+ becomes 100k+ easily.

On the Russian side, most credible estimates put the number somewhere between 9-12k, with the Donbass militias suffering about half of that. These aren't insignificant either.

During the worst years in Vietnam, one saw deaths of 100k combatants dead, north and south together. Not counting civilians, as that's another story. This really makes the scale of this war unprecedented, and I have had many conversations with Europeans who are mentally unable to grasp the concept of white people suffering industrial scale death. But really this is the heaviest fighting since WW2.

Also, on a final note, regarding prisoner mutilations, unless you know something, I would ask you to refrain from commenting about things you have no frame of reference for. It's a taboo topic in Russia, suppressed by authorities, but people talk privately. In fighting for the Donbass over the last 8 years, mutilations and trophy taking (including castration) was a common practice. Do you think that they've stopped? Well, I can answer that for you. They haven't. They are the same people who for decades regarded Russians as subhuman and treat them as hunting game. "Big atrocities" just mean more "small atrocities" that get overlooked. I'm not going to get into details of how I know, but returned POWs and corpses are frequently missing body parts. You can take that as a fact.

Posted by: Snekotron | Aug 6 2022 0:06 utc | 96

@13...From Azovstal to...Lubyanka, maybe?

Lt. General Roger Coulter -- of course.

Where is he now anyway?

Posted by: Fiji Refugee | Aug 5 2022 17:31 utc | 13

Posted by: Richard Whitneyy | Aug 6 2022 0:16 utc | 97

"For some reason Google translate refuses to properly translate the word kuohita = castrate, and instead offers the word "beaten"."

The Finnish reporter's story, I'll have to comment on it. Thank you for pointing this out to me.

Posted by: Snekotron | Aug 6 2022 0:17 utc | 98

Posted by: ZX | Aug 5 2022 23:02 utc | 86

If Russian POWs were routinely being mutilated, the Russian government and Russian media would not be silent about it. They'd be on the floor of the UN, showing everybody the victims.

No! If Ukrainian POWs were routinely being mutilated, the Ukrainian government and Western media would not be silent about it. They'd be on the floor of the UN, showing everybody the victims. They would do this, even if no victims ever existed.

In Russia castration is a shameful and private issue. Do not expect the victims to come out publicly. I do not even expect this to be discussed in open court, if the Ukrainian mutilators are are ever captured and brought to a court of justice.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Aug 6 2022 0:24 utc | 99

I remember hearing in the first days of the SMO that a US project building a military base at Odessa had been destroyed.
But I have heard nothing more about that.
Does anyone know anything about that?

Posted by: wagelaborer | Aug 6 2022 0:26 utc | 100

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