From gung-ho in Najaf to closing cinemas in Thailand:

Just five days after they arrived here to take over from Army units that had encircled Najaf since an earlier confrontation in the spring, new Marine commanders decided to smash guerrillas loyal to the rebel Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.
8-Day Battle for Najaf: From Attack to Stalemate

Cont. reading: Unintended Consequences

Either some journalists have no idea of math or economic numbers, or persistent general price increases do not make good headlines when wages are stagnant.

Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the newest Consumer Price Index (CPI). Today some media come up with these headlines:

• The Journal News – Prices drop in July
  
• Independent – US prices fall as housing market grows
  
• Forbes – Consumer Prices Decline, Housing Rebounds
  
• Reuters – Consumer Prices Drop, Industry Output Up
  
• Toronto Star – US consumer prices dip

These headlines contradict what US friends tell me. What happened? Picked up BLS table CUUR0000SA0 (Not seasonally adjusted, U.S. city average, All items) and crunched it to show the year-over-year inflation rate:

The inflationary year-over-year increase in consumer prices, as measured by the BLS, was 3,0% for July 2004 – slightly smaller than the 3.3% y-o-y increase for June 2004.

BTW: There are valid reasons to believe, that the CPI, as measured by the government, is significantly smaller than the inflation that actually occurs. Well, if you would have to increase your payments for social security recipients, veterans, interests for TIPS-bonds etc. in line with the CPI increases, would you not like to tweak the numbers down a little bit?

Looking at the US election from the outside, makes one wonder about the choices presented. On the one side Bush, elite offspring with deep relations to big money, on the other side Kerry, elite offspring with deep relations to big money. There are some nuances and probably Kerry would be “not as bad as Bush”.

Cont. reading: Bad Choice

in·tim·i·date: to make timid or fearful : FRIGHTEN; especially : to compel or deter by or as if by threats

Knock, knock:

• Will you take part in that demonstration?
• Is your neighbor planing to do so?
• What about your sister?
• Will your parents be there too?
• At that demonstration, are you planning disruptions?
• Are you planing violence?
• Do you know anybody who is doing so?
• Do you realize, that it is a crime to withhold such information?
  Thank you. We´ll be back!

Cont. reading: Knock, knock

In an Los Angeles Times Op-Ed, Sam Harris rants about religion as “Holly Terror”

President Bush and the Republicans in the Senate have failed — for the moment — to bring the Constitution into conformity with Judeo-Christian teachings. But even if they had passed a bill calling for a constitutional ban on gay marriage, that would have been only a beginning. Leviticus 20:13 and the New Testament book of Romans reveal that the God of the Bible doesn’t merely disapprove of homosexuality; he specifically says homosexuals should be killed: “If a man lies with a male as with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination; they shall be put to death.”

Cont. reading: Gods and Daemons

While the barkeeper is out, there is still a lot to be talked about.
If you have a theme for a thread in mind, please let me know or send me your texts.

yuck – it´s Friday, 13th – Open Thread …

Billmon on a CIA asset.

The barkeeper on one good reason to vote Bush.

CNNMoney.com currently names a “Second Day of Pain” on its frontpage. They of course refer to falling stockprices and rising oil. But there was no pain for people who were short and used the financial instruments available to bet on falling markets (like I did).

But how can one counter the pain that comes up, when one of the most magical cities of this world gets bombed and destructed in senseless fighting?

Would it help to short an index that reflects the values of:

the library of Al-Haidariyah, the library of Al-Ilmin in At-Tusi’s university, the library of Ash-Shushtariyah Husainiya, the library of Al-Qawam school, the library of both schools of Al-Khalili Al-Kubra and Sughra, the library of Shaikh Jafar Al-Kabir, the library of Shaikh Fakhrul Din At-Taraihi, the library of Ar-Rabitatul Ilmiyah, the library of Abdul Aziz Al-Baghdadi, the library of Muntada An-Nashr which has been moved to the jurisprudence college which locates at Kufah street, the Public Library, the library of Al-Burujirdi, the library of university of Najaf, the library of Shaikh Mohammed Baqir Al-Isfahani, the library of Al-Aakhund, the library of Ar-Rahim, the library of Bahrul Ulum, Sayyid Al-Hakim’s library, the library of Amirul Mu’minin (Commander of Faithful) (peace be upon him), the library of Al-Ya’aqubi, the library of An-Nuri, the library of Al-Balaaqhi, the library of Al-Khutaba’a, the library of Al-Malali (which is related to Aal Al-Millah), the library of Shaikh Aaqa Buzurg At-Tehrani,

and many other libraries in Najaf city?

It doesn´t feel likely to me today.

For a few moments sanity has -maybe-, -hopefully- resurfaced as US troops have halted their planed total assault on Al Sadr´s fighters in Najaf. Any attack on Najaf´s shrine of Imam Ali, where Al Sadr is trying to give himself the same cloud as Imam Ali himself, would be the equivalent of the total destruction of the Vatican and killing of the Pope by non Christians. US troops, NYT: says, would probably be eager to do this:

Cont. reading: Rove Trapped on Phoneline to Najaf

Billmon on the message of the supply siders.

Your views and news off topic elsewhere …

Billmon about the new CEO of a Bush subsidary.

The barkeeper on Greenspans Catch 22.

Billmon on a heat-seeking missile and its traget(s).

Updated – (Chalabi) at end of post

Light Sweet Crude Oil was slightly below $44 per barrel this morning. There is currently nearly no reserve capacity left on this planet and now this:

Iraq Stops South Oil Output After Militia Threat
BAGHDAD, Iraq (Reuters) Mon Aug 9, 2004 12:48 PM ET – Iraq stopped oil production from its southern oil fields Monday after a Shi’ite Muslim uprising led by radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr spread to the oil sector for the first time since the late-June handover of power to Iraqi authorities.

An Iraqi oil official said militiamen from Sadr’s Mehdi Army threatened to sabotage operations by the state Southern Oil Company, based in Basra city.

“Pumping from the southern oil fields to storage tanks at Basra was stopped today after threats made by Al-Sadr,” the official told Reuters. “It will remain stopped until the threat is over.”
…
Iraq’s southern fields have been supplying the Gulf Basra terminal with about 1.9 million barrels a day. Exports from Iraq’s northern oil fields have operated only sporadically since the U.S. occupation last year and remain closed after a series of attacks on the main northern export pipeline from the Kirkuk fields.

Now it will be proven by Al Sadr and others that oil is the most effective weapon against the US. Others will recognize this too (Venezuelan recall referendum?). Can anyone expect this threat to end anytime soon?

What may follow now economically? Here are my € 0.02:
– Light Sweet Crude Oil: (far) above $50/bl
– Fed: will not hike rates tomorrow
– Treasuries: will rally
– Stocks: will fall
– US economy: will grind to a halt
– Prices: will rise fast
– US$: down (maybe after a short rally)
– Worst case: stagnation and inflation, given some time developing into hyperinflation, loss of confidence in the US$, US economy crashing into a deflationary depression, others follow.

CHOAM Economic Analysis of Materiel Flow Patterns says:

Melange is the financial crux of CHOAM activities. Without this spice, Bene Gesserit Reverend Mothers could not perform feats of observation and human control, Guild Navigators could not see safe pathways across space, and billions of Imerial citizens would die of addictive withdrawal. Any simpleton knows that such dependence upon a single commodity leads to abuse. We are all at risk.

The Preacher at Arrakeen minds

This is the fallacy of power: ultimately it is effective only in an absolute, a limited universe. But the basic lesson of our relativistic universe is that things change. Any power must always meet a greater power.

Update – 3:58 PM

The stop of the Iraqi oil flowing to Basra seems to have a more sinister background than threats by Al Sadr. As Nemo pointed out in the last open thread, Chalabi is pulling the strings.

When NeoCon darling Achmed Chalabi came back to Iraq after the invasion, a gang of US trained thugs guarded him. Later these men were “integrated” into the security forces of ERINYS, the British company that has the contract to guard all Iraqi oil installations. ERINYS is connected with Chalabis INC organization and reportedly Chalabi was paid $2 million for his helpful recommendations on the contract. Chalabis nephew Salem was hired as a lawyer by ERINYS as were thousands of foreign “security trainer” mercenaries.

Yesterday the CIA asset Prime Minister Iyad Allawi issued arrest warrants for NeoCon asset Chalabi and for his nephew. Today the Flow Of Spice was stopped because militiamen from Sadr’s Mehdi Army threatened to sabotage operations by the state Southern Oil Company.

Maybe the guards of the Iraqi oil assets could step up the security again and hinder sabotage, if … and if … and if… .

Wolfowitz and Negroponte must be negotiating at each others throat by now, while Secretary John Snow prepares to distribute Prozac.

The barkeeper on the actions of the “Department of Reelection”.

Juan Cole writes:

The story of how the Bush administration prematurely outed Muhammad Naeem Noor Khan, a double agent working for Pakistan against al-Qaeda, has finally hit cable television news. MSNBC picked up the story on Saturday.

On Sunday at around 12:30 pm, Wolf Blitzer’s show referred to it. New York Senator Charles Schumer criticized the Bush administration for revealing Khan’s name. He noted the annoyance of British Home Minister Blunkett (see below) and Pakistani Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat with the Americans for blowing Khan’s cover. He said Hayat complained that if Khan’s name had not been reveaeled to the New York Times by the Bush administration, he might well have provided information that would have led to the capture of Usamah Bin Laden himself!

Blitzer then revealed that he had discussed the Khan case with US National Security Adviser Condaleeza Rice on background. He reported that she had admitted that the Bush administration had in fact revealed Khan’s name to the press. She said she did not know if Khan was a double agent working for the Pakistani government. (!!!)