Ukraine Open Thread 2022-97
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The current open thread for other issues is here.
The MoA Week In Review - (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-96
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
- Jun 20 - Ukraine SitRep - Lysichansk Cauldron - Sinking Morale - More Provocations
- Jun 24 - Ukraine SitRep - Zolote Cauldron Closes - Lysichansk Blocked (Corrected twice)
Related:
- What do events in the Donbass have to do with Russian victory? - Thomas Bergman
- Severodonetsk is not a Pyrrhic but a telling Russian victory - Asia Times
- SCOTT RITTER: The Fantasy of Fanaticism - Consortiumnews
- Jun 21 - This New Import Law Will Hurt U.S. Consumers
Related:
- US ban on imports from China's Xinjiang region takes effect - BBC
- We need a reset in US-China relations - Asia Times
- US-China détente on the horizon - Indian Punchline
- Interpreting history - Interview With Chas Freeman - Week in China
- EU companies in China pay the price for Brussels stance on Xinjiang - SCMP
Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand - 1:19 UTC · Dec 15, 2021> The new "Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act" that's about to be adopted by U.S. lawmakers might just be one of the most cynical pieces of U.S. legislation ever, and that's saying something.
A short 🧵
...
So here is a bill based on lies, presented as designed to "help people" when it in fact aims to destroy their livelihood, and to top it all will have disastrous effects on climate change. <
- Jun 22 - The Neocon's Dream - Decolonize Russia, Re-colonize China
- Jun 23 - Two Big Errors About Russia - By Helmholtz Smith
- Jun 26 - Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim]
Related:
- An Iron Curtain descends on Europe and the USA - Gilbert Doctorow
- The Return of Industrial Warfare - RUSI
The U.S. is collaborating with Lithuania, but not with the EU, to provoke Russia. Lithuania issued false claims that EU sanctions force it to shut down Russian traffic to Kaliningrad. The U.S. issues 'leaks' about Lithuanian troops in Ukraine. All this for the purposes of baiting Russia into attacking a NATO country.
- Kamala Harris in Munich: We stand with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - Feb 19, 2022 - Estonian World
- EU sanctions against Russia explained - Consilium Europe
"The ban does not affect mail services and goods in transit between Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia." - Lithuania limits truck transit between Kaliningrad region, rest of Russia - regional authorities - Jun 21, 2022 - Interfax
- Lithuanians Stick New Finger in Eye of Russian Bear - Jun 21, 2022 - Antiwar
- Russian anger at Lithuania puts spotlight back on US troops in NATO battlegroup near Suwalki Gap - Jun 22, 2021 - Stripes
- European officials scramble to douse Kaliningrad tensions - Jun 23, 2022 - Politico.eu
Senior EU diplomats warn the situation is serious and could get worse, fast. - Oped: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda: Now is the time to make NATO even stronger - Jun 23, 2022 - Washington Post
- Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say - Jun 26, 2022 - New York Times
At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine.
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-96
Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim]
The main stream media have no problem with contradicting their own reporting:
- U.S. Lacks a Clear Picture of Ukraine’s War Strategy, Officials Say - Jun 8, 2022 - New York Times
Intelligence agencies know far more about Russia’s military, even as the United States ships billions of dollars in weapons to the Ukrainians. - Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say - Jun 25, 2022 - New York Times
A secretive operation involving U.S. Special Operations forces hints at the scale of the effort to assist Ukraine’s still outgunned military.
> [S]ome C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine. <
Another such scheme:
Cont. reading: Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim]
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-95
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Ukraine SitRep - Zolote Cauldron Closes - Lysichansk Blocked (Corrected twice)
[Corrected (twice) below]
In the last situation report about the war in Ukraine I discussed the situation near Lysichansk.
The Ukrainian leadership is still sending new units into the Lysichansk cauldron in the east. The Russians do not mind that. Their job is to "demilitarize" Ukraine. To enclose more troops in one swoop makes that easier.
biggerThe distance between the red Russian held area at the the top to the one at the bottom at the most narrow gap is a mere 15 kilometer or some 9 miles. There is only one open road running through it from west to east which is used for pushing resupplies to the Ukrainian troops in Lysichansk.
The map has since changed significantly:
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep - Zolote Cauldron Closes - Lysichansk Blocked (Corrected twice)
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-94
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The current open thread for other issues is here.
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2022-93
News & views (not related to Ukraine) ...
Two Big Errors About Russia - By Helmholtz Smith
by Helmholtz Smith
American and Western policy towards Russia is founded on two serious errors. (A considerable understatement, of course – the past thirty years show that conventional Western ideas of Russia are almost completely wrong.)
But these two are endlessly repeated and, no matter how many times they are proven wrong, they remain the foundational assumptions of the West's attempts to change or control Russia.
First is the idea that the Russian economy is feeble, unbalanced and dependent on income from the West. The second is that Putin is the chief of a band of thieves who, who if made to feel pain, will get rid of him. Sanctions will collapse the first and bring the pain to cause the second. (Another delusion is that once Putin goes, everything will be to the West's liking – but I did say there was a multitude of misconceptions.)
First let's consider Russia's economy. Op-eds that say that the Russian economy is the size of Texas or Belgium or Luxembourg or whatever simply translate rubles into dollars and gallop to their preassigned conclusion. They never ask how big the space program of the country Russia is compared to is, or how many nuclear submarines it makes, or new subway stations, airports or bridges it opens, or whether that country makes all kinds of airplanes and trucks, or how much food it grows and exports or anything else that actually measures a real economy.
As soon as they did, of course, they would see that the Russian economy is much bigger than the puerile ruble-dollar comparison suggests. And, a slightly closer look would reveal that Russia's economy is almost self-sufficient. But the West carries on confident that Russia is a "gas station with nuclear weapons" and its feeble economy can be easily collapsed. RAND based a whole strategy on "Russia’s greatest vulnerability... is its economy, which is comparatively small and highly dependent on energy exports
They persist in the face of all experience to the contrary. The EU cut food exports to Russia to, I suppose, bring people out into the streets protesting the disappearance of exotic cheese (remember Masha Gessen's heartbreak about my little cheese?) Russia responded intelligently and is now self-sufficient in food and Europe has lost that market. Biden was going to reduce the ruble to rubble but Moscow effortlessly countered him and the ruble is now tied to energy – one of the strongest foundations a currency can have.
And still the sanctions pile on. But it's educational – now we know a lot more about what potash is used for and where it comes from. And neon – who knew that was important? Rare earths! Beer bottles! Moscow is only just now starting to counter-sanction and the world is discovering that Russia is a major producer of a lot of important things and if you sanction them, you will find yourself running short of lots of things you'd never heard of. (You'd think anyone who owned an atlas would be able to figure out that a country as large as Russia must be a big producer of most resources).
Biden can blame Putin all he likes, but sanctioning energy and potash is a certain way to drive up prices all round. Biden used to think that Russia had "nuclear weapons and oil wells and nothing else". Maybe the people running Russia are better at thinking things out and seeing reality than we thought they were. (Yet another mistaken Western assumption – what is there in the last twenty years that suggests we're smarter than they are?)
The idea that Russia is a big criminal conspiracy and Putin is the Boss of Bosses is the foundation of the personal sanctions strategy. So-and-so is deemed "close to Putin", whatever that means, and he's prevented from going to Paris to buy cheese and his yacht is stolen confiscated. Angry, he sits down with the other capos and decides it's time the Boss was found face down in a bowl of kasha and blood. The think tankers tell us that Putin is the Chief Thief holding onto power by spreading the loot around, fake elections and making critics disappear. (By the way, wasn't he supposed to have tried to kill Navalny, where's the oped savant explaining why he's still alive?)
All elections in Russia are fake, all opinion polls are fake, all media is controlled by the Kremlin, the underbosses are hurting so why is Putin still there? It surely couldn't be that he is the very popular and respected elected head of state – to suggest that would be to call into question three decades of US and EU think tankery. Therefore he must be just one more sanction away from being whacked out. And so more names – all "close to Putin" – are added to more lists. But nothing changes.
These two errors run on and on. Russia is now the most sanctioned country ever and Western politicians still think another round of "tough sanctions" will do the job. But the more sanctions it survives, the more sanction-proof Russia becomes.
Wars are irruptions of brutal reality into fantasy and the Ukraine war is laying bare the empty complacency at the root of the West's view of Russia. It's going to be a cold hungry winter in Europe and in parts of America. Can't blame Putin forever.
But the depressing truth is that minds are rarely changed, you have to change the man. How much longer will the West's leaders outlast their repeated failures?
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-92
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The open thread for other issues is here.
The Neocon's Dream - Decolonize Russia, Re-colonize China
On March 26 U.S. President Joe Biden called for regime change in Russia:
Speaking in Warsaw, Poland, on Saturday, President Biden said of Russian President Vladimir Putin: "For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power."
The White House immediately rushed to talk back that call for regime change and a day later Biden himself denied that he was calling for regime change:
President Joe Biden told reporters on Sunday he was not calling for a regime change in Russia when he said a day earlier that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power,” a surprising comment the White House quickly tried to walk back Saturday.When a reporter asked if he was calling for Putin’s removal from office, Biden replied “no” as he walked out of church Sunday afternoon, according to Bloomberg pool reporter Courtney Rozen.
However, other parts of the U.S. government makes unmistakeably clear that its aims in Russia go even much than regime change. Tomorrow the US Government's Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) will hold a briefing on the "Moral and Strategic Imperative" that makes it necessary to "Decolonize Russia".
bigger
As Nicolo Saldo points out:
Cont. reading: The Neocon's Dream - Decolonize Russia, Re-colonize China
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-91
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The open thread for other issues is here.
This New Import Law Will Hurt U.S. Consumers
Today the the U.S., suffering from high inflation caused by a lack of supplies, is launching the dumbest sanction regime ever:
A new law, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, goes into effect in the United States on Tuesday and will bar products that were made in Xinjiang or have ties to the work programs there from entering the country. It requires importers with any ties to Xinjiang to produce documentation showing that their products, and every raw material they are made with, are free of forced labor — a tricky undertaking given the complexity and opacity of Chinese supply chains.
...
In theory, the new U.S. law should block all goods made with any raw materials that are associated with Xinjiang until they are proven to be free of slavery or coercive labor practices. But it remains to be seen if the U.S. government is willing or able to turn away such an array of foreign goods.
The 12 million Uighurs live predominantly in the south of China's Xinjiang province. The area is arid and there is not enough water for the growing population. Over the years this had led to poverty, social unrest and, with the help of some Saudi educated Wahhabi preachers, to terrorism against non-Wahhabis.
Cont. reading: This New Import Law Will Hurt U.S. Consumers
Ukraine SitRep - Lysichansk Cauldron - Sinking Morale - More Provocations
The former CIA and intelligence bigwig Graham Fuller predicts a gloomy outcome of the U.S-Russia proxy war in Ukraine. Gloomy for Ukraine, the U.S. and Europe:
Contrary to Washington’s triumphalist pronouncements, Russia is winning the war, Ukraine has lost the war. Any longer-term damage to Russia is open to debate.American sanctions against Russia have turned out to be far more devastating to Europe than to Russia. The global economy has slowed and many developing nations face serious food shortages and risk of broad starvation.
There are already deep cracks in the European façade of so-called “NATO unity.” Western Europe will increasingly rue the day that it blindly followed the American Pied Piper to war against Russia. Indeed, this is not a Ukrainian-Russian war but an American-Russian war fought by proxy to the last Ukrainian.
Contrary to optimistic declarations, NATO may in fact ultimately emerge weakened. Western Europeans will think long and hard about the wisdom and deep costs of provoking deeper long term confrontations with Russia or other “competitors”of the US.
Europe will sooner or later return to the purchase of inexpensive Russian energy. Russia lies on the doorstep and a natural economic relationship with Russia will possess overwhelming logic in the end.
Europe already perceives the US as a declining power with an erratic and hypocritical foreign policy “vision” premised upon the desperate need to preserve “American leadership” in the world. America’s willingness to go to war to this end is increasingly dangerous to others.
All the above had already been said on this website in late February and March. But it is good to see that seasoned intelligence people are now coming to similar conclusions.
Two weeks ago I wrote that the Ukrainians will soon reach a breaking point. Today's 'clobber list' by the Russia Ministry of Defense has an additional part about Ukrainian troop loses that supports that take:
Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep - Lysichansk Cauldron - Sinking Morale - More Provocations
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-90
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The open thread for other issues is here.
The MoA Week In Review - (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-89
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
- Jun 13 - Media Tune Down Ukraine Hysteria - Continue To Print Falsehoods
- Jun 14 - Ukraine - Killing Surrendering Soldiers, Shelling Civilians
- Jun 17 - Ukraine - The U.S. Is Moving Towards Escalation
Related:
- Kaliningrad sanctions to take effect, Lithuania says - Reuters
- Lithuania enforces EU sanctions on goods to Russia’s Kaliningrad - Al Jazeerah
- NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point—the Suwalki Corridor - Foreign Policy
- Jun 16 - Trudeau Is Lying - Canadian Air Patrols Near China Are Not On 'UN Mission'
Related:
- China Defends Pilots After Accusation They Gave Canadians the Middle Finger - Newsweek
- Canada says world cannot allow Russia, China to dominate critical minerals market - Houston Today
- Jun 18 - Ukraine - The West's Response As It Meets With Reality
Related:
- Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief - BBC
- With scant options in Ukraine, U.S. and allies prepare for long war - Washington Post
- NATO warns of long Ukraine war as Russian assaults follow EU boost for Kyiv - NYPost
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - (NOT Ukraine) OT 2022-89
Ukraine - The West's Response As It Meets With Reality
This morning I watched an hour long discussion (vid) by 'experts' at the Center for Strategic & International Studies about assessing Russia's war in Ukraine. I have to say that these folks know nothing that is relevant. They seem to have never heard of Sun Tsu's dictum 'Know your enemy':
Sun Tzu says, “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy,” but how do you become your enemy? You need to put yourself in the place of your enemy so you can predict his actions.
Not once did the CSIS people consider the view of Russia or its real intent. They talk about this or that U.S. option but do not even once consider how the other side would react to it.
One of the CSIS 'experts' says that Russia had planned to take Kiev but failed. Take Kiev with what? There were some 20-30.000 Russian soldiers near Kiev which has some 3 million inhabitants. Historically one needs one soldier for every 40 civilians to occupy a city or country after the fighting is mostly over. Russia would have needed more than two and a half times the number of troops it had around Kiev to take and hold the city.
Several of the CSIS 'experts' have previously held high government positions in the security state. With folks like them it is no wonder to see how badly the U.S. plan to drag Russia into a long war in Ukraine is playing out.
As Daniel Larson correctly writes: We should’ve known sanctions on Russia wouldn’t work as intended
Cont. reading: Ukraine - The West's Response As It Meets With Reality
Ukraine - The U.S. Is Moving Towards Escalation
The catastrophic economic consequences of the 'western' proxy war with Russia are setting in. As a result the high inflation, caused by supply side constrains due to sanctions and far too much spending, will ruin the middle classes of many countries.
To those who did not wear blinders and who knew of the real economies of the 'west' and Russia this was very predictable and predicted:
The U.S. is pushing its European 'allies' to commit economic suicide by sanctioning everything Russia. The U.S. should be more careful. It is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and its aircraft industry depends on titanium from Russia. Russia surely knows who is trying to hurt it the most and it surely knows how, and has the means to, hurt back.
The hurt has not at all reached its peak. This winter will be very difficult for Europe. Poor countries are even worse off. Many will experience hunger crises and riots.
Today the Russian president Vladimir Putin held a speech at the Petersburg economic forum. The transcript isn't out yet but here are excerpts from a Twitter thread:
Cont. reading: Ukraine - The U.S. Is Moving Towards Escalation
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-88
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The open thread for other issues is here.
Trudeau Is Lying - Canadian Air Patrols Near China Are Not On 'UN Mission'
Canada falsely claims that it is implementing international law when its airplanes are in fact spying on China.
On June 2 the Canadian Globe & Mail reported of a Chinese interdiction of a Canadian reconnaissance aircraft:
Canada’s military has accused Chinese warplanes of harassing its patrol aircraft as they monitor North Korea sanction evasions, sometimes forcing Canadian planes to divert from their flight paths.On several occasions from April 26 to May 26, aircraft of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) approached a Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CP-140 Aurora long-range patrol aircraft, the Canadian Armed Forces said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Such interactions are of concern and of increasing frequency, the Canadian military said, noting that the missions occur during United Nations-approved operations to implement sanctions on North Korea.The Canadian aircraft were part of Ottawa’s “Operation NEON”, which sees military ships, aircraft and personnel deployed to identify suspected sanctions evasions at sea, including ship-to-ship transfers of fuel and other supplies banned by United Nations Security Council resolutions.
Did the United Nations really give Canada a mission or even a right to identify sanction evasions at high sea or near North Korea? I would find that astonishing.
Four days later the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was asked about the incidents. His answers came after China had explained its position:
Cont. reading: Trudeau Is Lying - Canadian Air Patrols Near China Are Not On 'UN Mission'
Ukraine Open Thread 2022-87
Only news & views related to the Ukraine conflict ...
The open thread for other issues is here.