Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-216

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Ukraine SitRep: End Of The Kursk Incursion - Long Range Missiles - Ending The War

The Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk oblast is coming to an end.

The Ukrainian command had sent its best troops and equipment into the area. It had even pushed its last motorized reserves into the operation. Last week it reinforced the contingent. But four weeks of steady Russian bombing and artillery attacks have taken their toll.

Whatever the aim of the incursion was has not been achieved. It created a short sugar-high in Ukrainian morale but that has already dissipated. 

The price was high. Half of the troops and material invested in the incursion are now gone.

Russia seems to believe that there is not much more for it to gain from this trap and started to shut it down. Yesterday a fast attack by Russian Marines and paratroopers cleared ten towns and hamlets of Ukrainian forces. Today at least three additional towns were liberated.

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Most of the tanks and armored fighting vehicles the Ukrainians had brought to the fight are gone. They will have to retreat in whatever vehicle they may find. This while being under steady bombardment. In two or three weeks the Ukrainians who survive will likely be back inside of their borders.

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken is in Kiev today. He will likely inform the Ukrainians that they will now be allowed to use U.S. weapons, especially longer range missiles, against targets in Russia.

There are two questions:
- How many U.S. missiles with longer reach does Ukraine still have?
- How many military targets are there left in Russia that have not yet been evacuated or have not received additional protection?

I believe that both of those numbers are low.

There was a fight within the Biden administration about the issues. The Pentagon was reportedly against allowing Ukraine to do such. The generals know what Russia can do and fear that it will retaliate. The warmongers in the State Department though seem to have won the discussion.

But it is the Pentagon that will, or will not, carry out any resupply. The Ukrainians wont get any additional missiles if the generals are determined to block those.

The Wall Street Journal reports about pressure on Ukraine to think of an endgame:

Some European diplomats say Ukraine needs to be more realistic in its wartime aims. That could help Western officials advocate to their respective voters the need to funnel arms and aid to the country.
...
Senior European officials say Kyiv has been told that a full Ukrainian victory would require the West to provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of support, something neither Washington nor Europe can realistically do.

Zelenski will have to present a Plan B, something that is more realistic than his current uncompromising stand on negotiations. For any ceasefire or peace Ukraine will have to give up on land, on quite a lot of it, and will have to fulfill additional conditions.

Should Zelenski be unable to come to such a solution someone else will be found to take up his role.

Harris And Trump Debate Whatever

Tonight the U.S. will have an election debate and the media will accompany it with their usual horse race reporting.

The pre-debate attack on Donald Trump claims that his rambling way of public talking is a sign of his old age:

At 78, former President Donald J. Trump exhibits more energy and speaks with more volume than President Biden does at 81, but he, too, has mixed up names, confused facts and stumbled over his points. Mr. Trump’s rambling speeches, sometimes incoherent statements and extreme outbursts have raised questions about his own cognitive health and, according to polls, stimulated doubts among a majority of voters.

In 2016, during his first campaign, Trump also held rambling speeches, confused facts and stumbled over points. It was and is his special way of talking to crowds and his followers love him for it.

To now claim that this very unchanged style is a sign of old-age Trump is inconsistent with that history.

But the point will be repeated as soon as the debate is done.

Trump'ss program, as far as he has one, does not differ much from his previous one. Some social red meat for cultural conservatives and economic lunacies for libertarians. Add a few crud ideas he will soon forget about. I generally like his somewhat isolationist stand on foreign policy but there is little chance that any of it will be implemented should he win the election.

The be-partisan foreign policy blob which rules in Washington will sabotage any attempts to make peace with Russia and/or to discard NATO.

Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is an empty vessel. Voters have never liked her. I have seen her nicknamed Incitata. It fits. The favorite horse of Roman Emperor Caligula was named Incitatus (from Latin 'incitare' - 'to encourage'):

According to Suetonius, in the Lives of the Twelve Caesars (121 AD), Caligula planned to make Incitatus a consul, and the horse would "invite" dignitaries to dine with him in a house outfitted with servants there to entertain such events. Suetonius also wrote that the horse had a stable of marble, with an ivory manger, purple blankets and a collar of precious stones.

Calligula's idea was to mock the Senate.

The blob is doing likewise with the public by offering someone who has no initiative of her own but will faithfully defend the implementation of anything the blob will desire. She is the most more-of-the-same candidate I can think of.

Harris and Trump are the two politicians with the most negative public ratings. That they are the only choices available makes the whole theater a mockery of the public.

One can conclude that U.S. is some form of oligarchy with a facade that is supposed to look like - but is not - a democracy.

Zionists Are Calling For More War And May Well Get It

The daily Israeli murder campaign in Gaza continues unabated.

Netranyahoo is blocking (vid) any proposal for a ceasefire by adding new conditions to the already agreed upon details. His latest quest is to get permanent military control of the so called Philadelphia Corridor which designates the borderline between Egypt and Gaza.

There are two international agreements, brokered by the U.S. and agreed upon by Egypt and Israel, which prohibited anything more than a temporary light force in the corridor:

The US had assured Egypt that Israel's actions along the border would comply with both the 1978 Camp David Accords and the 2005 Memorandum of Understanding. These agreements place clear limitations on Israel’s military presence near Egypt's borders, allowing only small Israeli units for security purposes, and were designed to ensure stability and avoid prolonged occupation in sensitive areas.

Netanyahoo does not care at all what the White House might have promised to Egypt. Biden's timidity in punishing him lets him ignore all interventions.

Zionist settler pogroms in the West Bank, supported by the government, threaten to turn the situation there into the same as in the Gaza strip. As Haaretz editorializes (archived):

Cont. reading: Zionists Are Calling For More War And May Well Get It

Palestine Open Thread 2024-215

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine - CIA/MI-6 Chiefs Push For New Terror Campaign Against Russia

U.S. officials admit that there is no way left for Ukraine to win the war.

The acknowledgment should lead to change in policies. But the U.S. is out of ideas. It will continue to push the downtrodden Ukraine along the Primrose path.

Here is Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin:

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned on Friday there was "no one capability" that would turn the war in Ukraine in Kyiv's favour after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged the West to let his forces use its long-range weapons to strike Russia.
...
"There's no one capability that will in and of itself be decisive in this campaign," Austin told reporters at the end of the meeting.

There are no super weapons left on the shelves that could change the picture. Everything that could be used has been used and failed.

The Kursk incursion was the last but short lived attempt to change the picture.

It did create some illusions ...

The War in Ukraine Is Already Over—Russia Just Doesn't Know it Yet - Reason
A front-line report from the Kursk offensive reveals that in the battle for hearts and minds, Ukraine’s resolve outpaces Russia’s crumbling morale, signaling an inevitable conclusion.

... only to soon be caught up reality:

Outgunned and outnumbered, Ukraine’s military is struggling with low morale and desertion - CNN

The Kursk incursion has failed.

Cont. reading: Ukraine - CIA/MI-6 Chiefs Push For New Terror Campaign Against Russia

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-214

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

Palestine:

• Sep 2 - Ukraine - U.S. 'Experts' Throw The Towel
• Sep 3 - Ukraine - Russian Missile Strike Hits Swedish Instructors
• Sep 6 - Ukraine SitRep: Ukrainian Army Chief Reveals Lack of Strategy Behind Kursk Incursion
  Related:
  - Sweden’s foreign minister announces shock departure from politics - AP
  - The British illustrated the praise of Kiev from the Swedish Foreign Minister with a picture from the cemetery - EADaily
  - Glenn Diesen – The Increase in Ukrainian Casualties - BraveNewEurope

• Sep 7 - Caitlin Johnstone - Trump Vs. Cheney
  Related:
  - The Zweikaiserproblem of the US Empire - Agit Papadakis

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-214

Caitlin Johnstone - Trump Vs. Cheney

Busy.

But please read Caitlin:

It’s The Trump Party Vs The Cheney Party
One of earth’s most evil living beings, Dick “Darth Vader” Cheney, has officially endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

I agree and see nothing that could be done about it.

Ukraine SitRep: Ukrainian Army Chief Reveals Lack of Strategy Behind Kursk Incursion

With the help of a CNN interview the Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Syrski is hoping to gain more support from western sources.

Exclusive: Ukraine army chief reveals the strategy behind Kursk incursion - CNN, Sept 5 2024

In his first television interview since becoming military chief in February, the general told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that he believed the Kursk operation had been a success.

“It reduced the threat of an enemy offensive. We prevented them from acting. We moved the fighting to the enemy’s territory so that [the enemy] could feel what we feel every day,” Syrskyi said, in a rare interview that offered a candid assessment of the war.
...
Speaking to Amanpour at an undisclosed location near the frontline, the general, who took over as army chief in February, said Moscow moved tens of thousands of troops to Kursk, including some of its best airborne assault troops.

And while admitting that Ukraine was under immense pressure in the area around Pokrovsk, the strategic city that has for weeks been the epicenter of war in eastern Ukraine, Syrskyi said his troops have now managed to stall the Russian advances there.

“Over the last six days the enemy hasn’t advanced a single meter in the Pokrovsk direction. In other words, our strategy is working.” he said.

Maps as provided by the pro-Ukrainian LiveUAmap:

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Ukrainian Army Chief Reveals Lack of Strategy Behind Kursk Incursion

Palestine Open Thread 2024-213

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-212

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2024-211

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine ...

Notice Of Absence

@all - I will be offline for the next two or so days.

Please behave.

b.

Ukraine - Russian Missile Strike Hits Swedish Instructors

A Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian Military Institute of Communications in Poltava has at least killed 41 and wounded two hundreds. Other sources claim higher numbers.

Poltava is about 120 kilometer from the Russian border. The warning times after the missile launch was allegedly too short for everyone to reach the bunkers.

The Institute of Communications is training radio and radar operators. Its main multi-story building has been completely destroyed.

Britta Ellwanger, a (former?) Swedish volunteer with the Ukrainian army wrote that Swedish friends of hers, also volunteering with the Ukrainian army, were among those who died in the strike.

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Sweden had promised to gift two Swedish AWACS planes to Ukraine:

Sweden has announced sending its Saab 340B AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning and Control) aircraft to Kyiv, as per an announcement made by its defense ministry on May 29, 2024.

Given the nature of the Institute of Communications in Poltava it is likely that the Swedes were training Ukrainian operators for those.

One wonders why the training was not held elsewhere.

The Swedes should have remembered the history of that city:

The Battle of Poltava[e] (8 July 1709) was the decisive and largest battle of the Great Northern War. The Russian army under the command of Tsar Peter I defeated the Swedish army under the command of Carl Gustaf Rehnskiöld. The battle put an end to the status of the Swedish Empire as a European great power, as well as its eastbound expansion, and marked the beginning of Russian supremacy in eastern Europe.

Swedish and NATO attempts to change that status of Russia in eastern Europe more than 300 years after it had been achieved has ended in failure.

Ukraine - U.S. 'Experts' Throw The Towel

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee are U.S. experts who have visited the Ukrainian front-lines several times to then write positive hopeful pieces, in the sense of the West, about the conflict.

Their latest longer piece, published in Foreign Affairs, deviates from their older ones.

Ukraine’s Gamble
The Risks and Rewards of the Offensive Into Russia’s Kursk Region

They describe the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Kursk oblast and the resulting lack of troops on the eastern Donbas front at some length.

They seem, like many others, not to be sure what it is all about. Neither Ukraine nor the countries that supports it seem to have any theory of victory.

Determining what this operation says about Ukraine’s overall strategy and the implications it has for the broader war effort is essential. In some ways, the offensive raises more questions than answers.
...
For much of 2024, the West has been supporting a Ukrainian strike campaign in Crimea without a good explanation for what was meant to follow. It was serviceable as an end onto itself, degrading Russian air defense and support infrastructure. But that campaign now seems disconnected from Ukraine’s efforts in Kursk and its broader drone strike campaign against economic infrastructure in Russia. A series of disparate efforts do not a strategy make.
...
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally worried about the prevailing gloomy narrative and the sense that Ukraine is losing the war. The Kursk operation helps address the latter at the risk of doing damage to the former. Whether or not Kursk succeeds, at least it is not an attempt to refight the failed 2023 offensive, a set piece battle in which Ukraine held no decisive advantages. That said, Kyiv’s present theory of success remains unclear.

Kofman and Lee are unhappy:

Cont. reading: Ukraine - U.S. 'Experts' Throw The Towel

Palestine Open Thread 2024-210

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...

Ukraine Open Thread 2024-209

News & views related to the war in Ukraine ...

It seems that the Ukrainian army is now betting on holding Pokrovsk, a rail and road hub which happens to also hold the only coal mine usable for coke production. Without the Ukrainian coke the already damaged Ukrainian metallurgic industry will be in a steep decline.

The 72nd brigade was ordered from Ugledar in the south, where it had been in defensive positions over the last two years, towards the Pokrovsk salient. Following that move the Russian army launched an all out attack on Ugledar.

The Ukrainian units involved in the Kursk invasion are reportedly also getting called back to move towards Pokrovsk. But they have by now received a serious beating and have lost a lot of their armored vehicles and fighting capabilities.

Troops on the move are targets. Lets see how many are left when they arrive.

...

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-208

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

Ukraine:

• Aug 26 - Ukraine Develops 'Its Own' Cruise Missile
• Aug 27 - Ukraine's Air Defense Success Numbers Are Likely Fake
• Aug 28 - Ukraine SitRep: The Collapse Of The Donbas Front
• Aug 30 - Ukraine SitRep: Patriot Airdefense System Vs. Ukrainian F-16 - 1:0
  Related:
  - Free book to download: The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine - The Mass Killing that Changed the World - Ivan Katchanovski
  - Ukrainian defense minister tells CNN ‘I hope we were heard’ after presenting list of targets inside Russia to US officials - CNN
  - Kiev should not expect more long-range missiles from US – CNN - RT

Palestine:

• Aug 28 - Israel Starts Ethnic Cleansing In West Bank
  Related:
  - Israel’s war on Gaza live: Israeli siege cuts off water, power in Jenin - Aljazeera
  - West Bank attacks: To western leaders, there are no red lines for Israel's slaughter - MEE
  - Renowned Surgeon and Lead Author of New Lancet Study Tortured by Israeli Military - Drop Site
  - “We told Israel, ‘Look, if you guys have to go, we’re behind you all the way’” - Alastair Crooke / SCF
  - ‘Nothing is left’: Israel’s military tells Gaza residents to go home but they find only rubble - Yahoo/CNN

---
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review - OT 2024-208

Ukraine SitRep: Patriot Airdefense System Vs. Ukrainian F-16 - 1:0

Ukraine had received 6 F-16 fighter jets. On Monday, during a mass Russian missile and drone attack, 16.7% of them came down. A local administration was first to announce the death of its pilot.

The F-16 trained pilots, not the airplanes, are a resource that is missing most in Ukraine.

There were various theories how the plane was terminated. The Ukrainian Air Force Command made a hero out of its pilot. Stephen Bryen is quoting the Russian source Rybar:

The Ukrainian Air Force Command has released an official obituary for pilot Oleksii Mesia, who was flying an F-16 fighter jet.

According to the text, the fighter he was piloting was hunting Russian cruise missiles and kamikaze drones during the massive missile strike on August 26. It claims he shot down three cruise missiles and one UAV, but was killed himself. This wording suggests that the F-16 either was shot down by Ukraine's own air defenses, which were also engaging the missiles and drones, or crashed into one of the aerial targets, which has happened before.

However parliament member Mariana Bezuglaya, known for her previous criticism of General Zaluzny and other military staff, has claimed that the F-16 was shot down as a result of "friendly fire" (machine translation):

Cont. reading: Ukraine SitRep: Patriot Airdefense System Vs. Ukrainian F-16 - 1:0

Palestine Open Thread 2024-207

News & views related to the war in Palestine ...