Once a while the writers at RUSI, the British Ministry of Defense think tank, produce some valuable research. Mostly though they are out to push war mongering nonsense. A recent piece in Foreign Affairs by Jack Waitling is of the later kind.

Ukraine’s Hardest Winter – Foreign Affairs, Nov 11 2025
With the Donbas in Peril, Europe Must Pressure Russia Now

I’ll leave the dozens of outright lies, false assertions and delusions therein for others to mock.

Waitling’s main thesis is that more (economic) pressure on Russia will somehow press it towards a ceasefire without concessions from the Ukrainian side. But his suggestions on how to do that are all designed to drag Europe into an even more direct battle with Russia.

To support the Ukrainian campaign against Russia’s oil industry the Europeans should close the Strait of Denmark:

For Ukraine’s international partners, the question is whether they are prepared to match Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s oil infrastructure with comparable real rather than performative pressure on Russia’s economy. Above all, this means targeting Russia’s shadow fleet: the hundreds of decrepit tankers, operating under flags of convenience, often without insurance or trained crew, to move its oil to India and China. This will require denying the 80 percent of Russian seaborne oil exports that pass through the Strait of Denmark and threatening secondary sanctions against the ports where shadow fleet vessels unload.
…
Some European governments—including Denmark—have cited the 1857 Treaty of Copenhagen, an international agreement that established tariff-free transit of commercial shipping through Danish waters, as a legal barrier to action. But this is an excuse rather than a real obstacle. The countries that have a Baltic coastline today, excluding Russia, could agree to a new treaty requiring ships to meet certain standards of insurance and certification to be allowed to navigate the Baltic—for example, on grounds of ecological protection. Since the aging vessels of the shadow fleet do not meet these requirements, such a treaty would deny them entry into the straits. This would not impinge on the principle of tariff-free transit for commercial shipping through Danish waters.

Nice idea. But would enforce such nonsense and how?

Cont. reading: How To Start War With Russia – A British Think Tank Has Ideas

There has been a severe power struggle going on in Ukraine which the circle around acting president Vladimir Zelenski fighting against the former president Petro Poroshenko and his clique.

Today the power struggle went into a new round with fresh corruption accusation raise against intimate allies of Zelenski.

Zelenski has control over the ruthless Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). The group around Poroshenko is allied with ‘grant structures’ previously close to the US Democratic Party.

‘Grant structures’ are the ‘civil society’ and the ‘anti-corruption’ parallel government organizations in Ukraine which were, until recently, financed by U.S. funds and controlled by Democrats. After Trump had blocked the funding for those groups Poroshenko jumped in with financing and the European Union took over.

The fight has been ongoing since 2022 when the war in Ukraine started for real. During the mid of this year the fight went public:

An intense information operation has been launched to remove Ukraine’s (former) President Vladimir Zelenski from office. Behind it are a cabal of Ukrainian opposition figures in coordination which western media and parts of the Trump administration.

The current campaign follows a earlier one which was directed against Zelenski’s main advisor and head of the office of the president Andrei Yermak.

Several pieces in major western outlets were launched against Zelenski and his clan. They were the preparatory fire for a wider attack which would accuse people around Zelenski, and finally himself, of large scale corruption schemes.

Zelenski tried to preempt the attack. On July 22 he put the whole anti-corruption vertical, including the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, under his control. That move caused open protest in Kiev by various non-government organization. The EU pushed back and Zelenski had to concede defeat. The Anti-Corruption vertical was released from supervision:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – Zelenski Friend Accused In Energy Sector Corruption Case

This frontline report and the maps it presents are one of a kind:

Frontline report: Ukrainian drones with loudspeakers broadcast surrender instructions as Pokrovsk counterattack succeeds – Euromaidan, Nov 7 2025

General Oleksandr Syrskyi launched a focused Ukrainian counterattack near Dobropillia to divert Russian attention from the brutal push on Pokrovsk. Using drone-mounted loudspeakers to broadcast surrender instructions and exploiting autumn mud, Ukrainian forces cleared encircled Russian pockets and forced mass surrenders, while Russian reinforcements became bogged down trying to respond.

bigger
The report claims that the Russian front that did envelope Pokrovsk and Myrnograd from the north has been broken up by a counteroffensive. Resupply of the Ukrainian forces in the two cities seems to be again possible.

The report is one of a kind because no one else is reporting such nonsense.

The Ukrainian counterattack north of Pokrovsk, which was launched a week ago, has failed. The pocket is closed. Pokorvsk is to 90% under Russian control. Ukrainian forces left in Myrnograd have no way out.

That is at least what other observers of the conflict, including western media, are claiming:

Cont. reading: This Ukraine War Report Is One Of A Kind

Yesterday the Democrats had a better day than they deserve. Their candidates did win in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City:

Zohran Mamdani, a young democratic socialist who shot to stardom and shook up Democratic politics, will be the next mayor of New York City.

Less than 40 minutes after the polls closed at 9 p.m. on Nov. 4, the Associated Press and CNN called the race for Mamdani, the Democratic nominee. With 91% of the vote counted, Mamdani had 50.4% of the vote, 9 points of his next closest opponent, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo with 41.6%. Cuomo ran as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary.

Mamdani, 34, will be the first Muslim mayor and first Asian American mayor of the nation’s largest city. The state lawmaker won after a contentious campaign defined by Democratic infighting over his ambitious proposals and past criticisms of Israel and the NYPD. Billionaires such as former Mayor Mike Bloomberg spent millions on efforts to defeat him.

It was remarkable that Zohran Mamdani did not pledge fealty to the Zionists (yet). It is somewhat uplifting that this likely enabled him to win.

But the hype around reminds me of the hype around one Barack Obama shortly before he became a bloody and bad president. It makes me suspicious of his verbalized aims and opinions.

There is also this:

Alex Soros @AlexanderSoros – 3:05 utc · Nov 5, 2025

So proud to be a New Yorker! The American dream continues!
Congrats, Mayor @ZohranKMamdani
pic

Hmm …

Marx Engels Lenin Stalin Mao Institute @MarxEngelsLnin – 12:40 utc · Nov 5, 2025

If you think the Soros family endorses actual socialists then I have several bridges and a miracle cure to sell you.

—

Michael Tracey @mtracey – 12:56 utc · Nov 5, 2025

Who wants to bet that within six months Zohran will be considered centrist/establishment by much of the Left

That bet looks like a sure win.

I am not in the mood to write about the death of former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney. Alan has caught the gist of what needs to be said of it.

Alan MacLeod @AlanRMacLeod – 12:20 utc · Nov 4, 2025

The only thing sad about Dick Cheney’s death is that it did not happen inside an Iraqi prison.

Over the years there have been a few MoA post on Cheney:

• The VP – Why is Cheney so full of hate?,  Nov 22, 2005
• Cheney Fails Again,  Feb 12, 2006
• Cheney Administration Expresses Self-knowledge,  May 27, 2007
• Cheney and Friends – by Antifa,  Jun 21, 2008
• Chimera – Chemera – Chenera – Chener – Cheney,   Sep 6, 2008

The one written by Antifa is probably the best of them. The last one is also of current interest.

This blog had diligently followed the case of the Belorussian regime changer Roman Protasevich and his Ryanair flight to Minsk. Last week the case reappeared but the quite sensational news of it caught little attention.

To recap a summary of the case as published here in May 2023:

Two years ago a Ryanair flight from Athens to Lithuania was diverted after the Belorussian flight control informed the pilot that it had received an email which said that the plane carried a bomb and would explode during landing in Lithuania.

The plane diverted to Minsk. All passengers stepped off board and where bused to the terminal. When they passed through passport control the immigration officers found that two of the passengers had outstanding arrest warrants against them. These were one Roman Protasevich and his Russian girlfriend and co-worker Sofia Sapega.

The ‘western’ media and politicians were up in arms over the ‘unprecedented’ incident. But the event was far from unprecedented.

Western media also failed to report that Roman Protasevich had been a western government financed neo-nazi who had fought with the fascist Ukrainian Azov battalion before working for U.S. sponsored regime change media in Poland. He was one of the persons who had directed the failed 2020 color-revolution in Belarus.

Belarus had handled the airplane incident by the book. During the following days claims were made that Belarus received the terror threat email after the plane was informed – i.e. the whole thing was a setup. However, Belarus has claimed that it received the threat email twice, once before it notified the pilots and another copy later.

Moon of Alabama has followed the case throughout. Those interested in the details of the original incident can find them in our June 2 2021 post. For a wider political view of the ‘color revolution’ business in east Europe see this piece by Kit Klarenberg. Links to all MoA posts about the case are listed at the end of this piece.

A week after the incident, during a long TV interview, Protasevich spilled the beans about the whole regime operation. He also says that he has come to believe that one of his regime changer colleagues had sent the bomb threat email to get him arrested.

A few weeks later Roman Protasevich and Sofia Sapega were released and put under house arrest. A trial followed and, in early May of this year, he was sentenced to eight years in prison.

Only a week or two after receiving his prison sentence Roman Protasevich was pardoned. A few days later his girl friend and partner in crime Sofia Sapega was also released. Little was heard of either of them since.

Until on October 31 the President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko let the cat out of the bag. He said that Protasevich had all along been a spy for his country.

As TASS summarizes:
Cont. reading: Belorussian ‘Regime Changer’ Roman Protasevich Was An Intelligence Asset

Last week U.S. President Donald Trump published a confused tweet about nuclear testing:

…  Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis.  …

Some media panicky wrote that Trump had ordered to detonate nuclear warheads.

I disagreed with that interpretation:

All nuclear warheads the U.S. has are under the control of the Department of Energy. It is the sole agency that can do test explosions of nuclear warheads. The nuclear delivery vehicles which are used to deploy the war heads are under the control of the Department of Defense (or ‘Department of War’ as Trump calls it).

Trump said “Because of other countries testing programs” and “start testing … on an equal basis” both in reference of nuclear delivery vehicle tests of other countries.

Trump thereby likely meant to order the DoD to test its nuclear delivery vehicles, just like Russia has recently done. He did not order the DoE to test nuclear war heads.

The testing of nuclear delivery vehicles, like intercontinental missiles, is a routine that has been done every year since those exist.

It is nothing to panic about.

On Sunday the Energy Secretary confirms that no nuclear explosions are involved (archived):

The nuclear testing ordered by President Trump will not involve nuclear explosions, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday, adding that the testing would involve “the other parts of a nuclear weapon” to ensure they are working properly.

Mr. Wright’s comments came four days after Mr. Trump made the declaration that he was ordering the U.S. military to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other countries, raising the specter of a return to the worst days of the Cold War.

“I think the tests we’re talking about right now are systems tests,” Mr. Wright said in an interview on the Fox News show “The Sunday Briefing.” “These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.”

Noncritical or subcritical explosion test are those where, for example, the chemical explosives which, within a nuclear warhead, are supposed to initiate the nuclear fission are tested for their stability. That is, like testing the wiring of a warhead detonator, routine stuff which every country that has nuclear weapons does on a regular basis.

The Los Alamos National Laboratory is where the U.S. is doing these tests:
Cont. reading: Trump’s Nuclear Weapon Tests Won’t Include Nuke Explosions

The Ukrainian army has lost control over the Pokrovsk / Myrnograd agglomeration. Russian forces had over months slowly enveloped the cities from the east and the west. The corridor leading out of it was put under Russian drone control. Any vehicle trying to pass through was attacked.

biggerThe Ukrainian leadership had thrown any reserves it had to reopen the corridor to the city. All such attempts were destined to fail. A last Hail Mary move was the helicopter insertion of a dozen special forces commanded by the Military Intelligence Service GRU.

Ukraine lands special forces in embattled Pokrovsk, sources say – Reuters, Oct 3 2025

Ukraine landed special forces to fight in embattled parts of the eastern city of Pokrovsk earlier this week, just as Russia said it had surrounded Kyiv’s forces in the area, two Ukrainian military sources said on Friday.
…
The Ukrainian special forces landed in a Black Hawk helicopter a few days ago in the operation, which was complicated by Russian drone activity, a source in the 7th Rapid Response Corps said.

The operation was overseen by military spy chief Kyrylo Budanov, and the troops headed to areas of the city claimed by Russia and seen by Moscow as vital for Ukrainian supply lines, the other source said.

At least 10 servicemen could be seen dismounting from a helicopter in a field in a video seen by Reuters. The news agency could not independently confirm the location or date when the video was filmed.

A video of the helicopter insertion is here

Other videos, according to AMK mapping, show that none of the inserted soldiers survived:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – Hail Mary Operation To Unblock Pokrovsk Has Failed

Just a few days ago I stated that Trump is targeting Venezuela under the pretext of countering drug trafficking. But the real reasons for this are clear:

Venzuela is, as Politico points out, not known for drug trafficking. It does not have ‘cocaine facilities’. But it does have the largest oil reserves in the world. That has always made it a target for a U.S. regime-change operations.

But Venezuela is also a huge country double the size of Iraq with a mountainous and often densely wooded countryside. The U.S. military is unable to invade, occupy and control it.

But what the U.S. might want to try in Venezuela is a variant of the Israeli plan for Iran.

A decapitation strike killing President Maduro and the military leadership accompanied by a bombing campaign to take out air defenses and primary defense units. Meanwhile the CIA and special forces will have to work on the ground in Caracas to organize local thugs for an assault on the main government sites and radio/TV buildings.

A few days ago the U.S. ordered the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford to move from the Mediterranean towards Venezuela. The carrier is expected to arrive in early to mid November. I had expected that the U.S. would wait with any attack on Venezuela until the carrier force is in place. Until than it would continue its intimidation strikes on random fishermen at sea.

The Wall Street Journal though says that the U.S. is already ready to strike on land:

U.S. Eyes Striking Venezuelan Military Targets Used for Drug Trafficking (archived) – WSJ

The Trump administration has identified targets in Venezuela that include military facilities used to smuggle drugs, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter. If President Trump decides to move forward with airstrikes, they said, the targets would send a clear message to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro that it is time to step down.

While the president hasn’t made a final decision on ordering land strikes, the officials said a potential air campaign would focus on targets that sit at the nexus of the drug gangs and the Maduro regime.
…
The potential targets under consideration include ports and airports controlled by the military that are allegedly used to traffic drugs, including naval facilities and airstrips, according to one of the officials.

The Miami Herald says that the decision to attack Venezuela has been made and that strikes are imminent:

Cont. reading: U.S. Ready To Bomb Venezuela Under Absurdly False Pretext

A Truth Social tweet by U.S. President Donald Trump on nuclear weapons has led to some confusion and, as I assume, misinterpretations.

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Oct 30, 2025, 1:04 utc

The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

The Washington Post interprets it as a test of nuclear warheads:

Trump directs Pentagon to test nuclear weapons for first time since 1992 (archived) – Washington Post
The president said he wanted testing to occur “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The Kremlin condemned the move, and there was no indication of when tests might take place.

President Donald Trump on Thursday morning said he directed the Pentagon to begin testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, an apparent attempt to flex the United States’ military might ahead of a high-stakes trade meeting here with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Trump’s announcement on Truth Social signaled a reversal of decades of United States nuclear policy that could have far-reaching consequences for relations with U.S. adversaries, though his post included very few details about what the tests would entail. The last nuclear weapon test in the United States was held in 1992, before President George H.W. Bush implemented a moratorium on such exercises at the conclusion of the Cold War.

Trump wrote that the process would begin immediately and was in response to other countries’ testing programs.

The president posted about resuming nuclear weapons testing as his helicopter, Marine One, was in the air on his way to meet Xi at Gimhae Air Base.

The Trump tweet is wrong in that it asserts that the U.S. has more nuclear weapons than any other country. All public sources say that Russia with about 4300 nuclear warheads has slightly more than the United States with about 3,600. China has about 5-600 nuclear warheads and is building up its nuclear weapon arsenal to about 1,000 warheads by 2035.

However Trumps next sentence is not about testing nuclear warheads. It is about testing of carrier systems that can deploy nuclear warheads.

Trump says: “Because of other countries testing programs, …”

No country has recently exploded a nuclear bomb or warhead for testing or other purposes. The last known nuclear test was done by North Korea in 2017.

It is important to distinguish between testing a carrier designed to deliver a nuclear war head and testing, i.e. exploding, the nuclear war head itself. A nuclear carrier can be a bomber, a land based (intercontinental) missile or a submarine based missile or torpedo.

Russia has recently announced a successful test of the Burevestnik cruise missile. This is a potential nuclear warhead carrier driven by a nuclear-powered jet engine:

Cont. reading: A Nuclear Delivery Vehicle Is Not A Nuclear War Head

English Outsider comments in response to my Ukrainian glasshouse post:

“I seriously doubt that these people are sane.”

They’re psychos.  Gaza shows that past doubt.  But there’s logic to their insanity.  Although we’re heading for straight military defeat in the Ukrainian theatre they still have the Russians over a barrel.  The problem of remnant Ukraine, the problem that has been staring all in the face since February 2022, it still one to which the Russians have no good solution.  It’s clear that the Western politicians,  Trump included, will not assist with coming to any good solution.

The future of Eastern Ukraine is already determined though we don’t yet know how much of it the Russians will decide to incorporate within the RF.  But remnant Ukraine, whatever that turns out to be in territorial terms, poses a problem as insoluble as ever,

First, Eastern Ukraine.

Lavrov:

And when we now liberate remaining parts of Zaporozhye, this is the Russian way to pronounce it. And Kherson, the people, in spite of the attempts of Ukrainian army to pull them into mainland Ukraine, most of them are not leaving. They’re staying, and they’re welcoming the Russian soldiers who liberate them. So this is not our will, our “imperialist desire”, some people say. This is our concern for the future of the people who feel being part of the Russian culture.

This fits with statements from the Ukrainian authorities to the effect that they were having difficulty evacuating Kupiansk.  Many did not wish to be evacuated.  The same was seen in Bakhmut and in other towns and cities.

Later on Lavrov returns to the subject:Cont. reading: English Outsider On Solving Ukraine

Yesterday U.S. President Donald Trump visited Japan and met with its new Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi. Both are conservatives and agree on many points. Japan is a trusted vassal which rarely collides with the U.S. demands.

But one serious point of contention is open between the two nations and threatens to blow up the relation.

Earlier this year Trump had imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. imports from Japan. The previous prime minister had ‘sold the house’ to lower that rate:

So desperate was now-former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to lower Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Japanese products to 15%, especially on automotive products, that he signed on to an incredible surrender regarding Tokyo’s promise for the government to invest $550 billion in the US over the coming three years.

Not only does Trump get to choose the projects and the US get the lion’s share of any profits, but if Japan dares to reject any of Trump’s schemes as nonviable, Ishiba has given Trump permission to impose even higher tariffs. The jointly-signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) says that, “In the case where Japan elects not to fund [a project Trump has named—rk], the United States may also impose tariff rate or rates on Japanese imports into the United States at the rate determined by the President [emphasis added].”

The total surrender took the form of a Memorandum of Understanding which did not require a vote in the Diet. But the enormous amount of money it pledges to invest in the U.S. would need parliamentary approval. There was and is practically not chance that anything like it would pass. The ‘investment’ would blow up Japan’s government budget. It would also increase the U.S. trade deficit with Japan.

The completely unbalanced agreement was one reason why Ishiba was ousted from his position.

I had wondered how Takaishi would handle this most important issues. But it seems that both sides have agreed to ignore it:Cont. reading: How Can Japan Handle Its $550 Billion Trump Problem?

Ukraine: “Let’s attack Russian refineries. The Russians will run out of gasoline and diesel. There will be protests and Putin will be deposed.”

Result:

Emergency power outages have been introduced in the city of Kyiv as well as Kyiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and other oblasts on the morning of 27 October.
…
“On the orders of Ukrenergo [Ukraine’s state-owned electricity transmission system operator], emergency power outages have been introduced in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.”
…
In addition, Sumyoblenergo, Sumy’s distribution system operator, announced emergency outages for its consumers.

The same situation is occurring in Cherkasy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv oblasts.

Reaction (machine translated):

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has threatened Russia with “expanding the geography” of long-range strikes.

Zelensky wrote about this in his telegram channel after the stavka meeting.

“Russian oil refining is already paying a significant price for the war and will pay even more. We have defined tasks to expand the geography of our long-range range, ” the Ukrainian president said.

I seriously doubt that these people are sane.

One never know how serious Trump’s ‘leaked’ plans are. Their purpose often seem to be solely to increase pressure on opponents, to move things into a direction he likes. If that does not work the plans may just be discarded. Or may, just may, be carried out.

Trump considering plans to target cocaine facilities inside Venezuela, officials say – Politico

President Donald Trump is considering plans to target cocaine facilities and drug trafficking routes inside Venezuela, though he has not yet made a decision on whether to move forward with them, three US officials told CNN.

Outward signs on Friday pointed toward a major potential military escalation, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordering the Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier strike group currently stationed in Europe to the Caribbean region amid a massive buildup of US forces there. Trump has also authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela.

The president has not ruled out taking a diplomatic approach with Venezuela to stem the flow of drugs into the US, two officials said, even after the administration cut off active talks with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in recent weeks.

Venzuela is, as Politico points out, not known for drug trafficking. It does not have ‘cocaine facilities’. But it does have the largest oil reserves in the world. That has always made it a target for a U.S. regime-change operations.

But Venezuela is also a huge country double the size of Iraq with a mountainous and often densely wooded countryside. The U.S. military is unable to invade, occupy and control it.

But what the U.S. might want to try in Venezuela is a variant of the Israeli plan for Iran.

A decapitation strike killing President Maduro and the military leadership accompanied by a bombing campaign to take out air defenses and primary defense units. Meanwhile the CIA and special forces will have to work on the ground in Caracas to organize local thugs for an assault on the main government sites and radio/TV buildings.

As soon as those are captured the U.S. selected regime-change puppet, as identified by the Nobel Peace Prize committee, can declare herself president.

The rest is just media work. Unless – and that is a big question – there will be some real resistance.

The Venezuelan Bolvarian movement can motivate its youth to resist the U.S. coup even a well planned operation may end up like the Bay of Pigs.

A month ago I discussed a new hair-brained scheme by which the EU would confiscate Russian government money parked in Belgium.

The Russian money would be used to finance a EU ‘reparation loan’ to Ukraine which would only have to be paid back when Russia would pay war reparations to Ukraine. That at least was the official pronunciation which turned out to be a quote obvious fake.

Another Crazy Idea On How To Steal Russia’s Assets: Make EU Taxpayers Pay For It

A look into the details left many question which no one had answered:

Why would this scheme, as [German Chancellor] Merz say, ‘require budgetary guarantees from member states’? Doesn’t that mean that the tax-payers of those member state will eventually have to pay it? Who’s money is at risk when Russia wins its litigation? Who pays if something goes wrong?

Russia will of course never pay reparations to Ukraine. Nor would the loan be spend on repair or rebuild things in Ukraine. Instead the money would be used to buy weapons from Europe to continue the war for another two years.

The whole idea was a scam. Merz or others did no say so directly but in the end it would obviously be EU taxpayers who have to pay for the ‘loan’.

Earlier this week a Financial Times column confirmed (archived) my interpretation of the deal:Cont. reading: EU Commission Plan Of ‘Russian Assets’ Loan To Ukraine Ends In Defeat

It there any politician who is less reliable than U.S. President Donald Trump?

At the August summit in Anchorage with President Vladimir Putin of Russia Trump had aimed at a ceasefire along the frontline in Ukraine. But Putin made clear that the war required a long term solution of the underlying problem, NATO enlargement, and that a preliminary ceasefire would not be helpful in that regard. Russia also demanded full control of the Donbas and other regions.

Trump did agree to that and announced it as the brilliant result of the talks. This was his first turn on the issue.

But Ukraine’s (former) President Zelenski rejected any retreat from the regions Russia intends to acquire. European politicians, who fear losing the war against Russia, chimed in. Republican war hawks in Congress likewise put pressure on Trump.

A month after the talks in Alaska Trump again changed his position. This was his second turn. He criticized Putin and threatened Russia with new sanctions. Talk about sending Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine crept up.

A day before Zelenski was supposed to visit the White House Putin preemptively intervened by holding a phone call with Donald Trump. There followed another, the third, change in mind. Trump announced that there would soon be another summit. The Kremlin was more cautious with that claim. It said that a summit would need extensive preparation.

The Europeans, Zelenski and Republican hawks immediately renewed their campaign against any agreement with Russia.

A phone call between the Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov followed. After the call any further preparations for another summit were called off.

Trump turned again – the fourth time – and again demanded a ceasefire in Ukraine. The Russians said that this constitutes a breach of the agreements reached during the Anchorage talks.

While Trump nixed any talk of Tomahawks for Ukraine he lifted restriction on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles (archived) to be fired into Russia:

The unannounced U.S. move to enable Kyiv to use the missile in Russia comes after authority for supporting such attacks was recently transferred from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon to the top U.S. general in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, who also serves as NATO commander.

The U.S. also issued sanctions against two major Russian oil companies (archived) and their subsidiaries:
Cont. reading: Trump Fails To End His Proxy War With Russia

This war will be won on the battlefield. Ukraine will prevail and rise back even stronger – WeAreUkraine, Apr 10, 2022

“This war will be won on the battlefield,” said [EU foreign policy chief Josep] Borrell on Twitter. “Ukraine will prevail and rise back even stronger. And the EU will continue to stand by you, every step of the way.”

—

Speech by President [of the European Council] Charles Michel to the Verkhovna Rada in Kyiv – Consilium, Jan 19 2023

We are determined to help you win on the battlefield. When President Zelenskyy called me on February 24th, he said, “Charles, we need weapons, we need ammunition”. Three days later, we formally decided to provide lethal equipment to a third country for the first time in the history of the EU.

—

Boris Johnson vows Ukraine ‘will win’ as he visits Kyiv on two-year anniversary of war Independent, Feb 24 2024

Mr Johnson said: “On this grim second anniversary of Putin’s invasion I am honoured to be here in Ukraine. With their indomitable courage I have no doubt that the Ukrainians will win and expel Putin’s forces – provided we give them the military, political and economic help that they need.”

—

Ukraine Must Win, Regain Full Territory: Germany’s Merz – Kyiv Post, Jan 21 2025

Merz said he wants peace in Ukraine but not “at the price of submission to an imperialist power” and stressed that “Ukraine must win the war.”

“To me, winning means restoring territorial integrity,” said Merz, whose conservative CDU-CSU is leading in polls ahead of Germany’s Feb. 23 election. “Winning also means that Ukraine must have complete freedom to choose its political and, if necessary, military alliances.”

A few months later … and the delusion of ‘winning’ is gone …
Cont. reading: EU-NATO Retreats From ‘Ukraine Is Winning’ To Begging For A Ceasefire

In his latest essay Emmanuel Todd compares the various -isms of foregone and current times:

Hitlerism, Trumpism, Netanyahuism, Le Penism, Macronism

Two of many good points deserve to be highlighted. The first in on Trump’s active service for Zionism which is in fact anti-semitic:

In my opinion, Trumpism’s radical pro-Israel stance masks a visceral and vicious anti-Semitism: the identification of all Jews with Netanyahuism, a truly monstrous historical phenomenon and a cancer in Jewish history, will only serve to renew the Nazi conception of a monstrous Jewish people. I am talking here about anti-Semitism 2.0.

Another, totally different point to highlight, is his analysis of European centrism à la Macron:

Some European middle classes between the [world] wars went mad. The working class was more reasonable. But are today’s middle classes, particularly the upper middle classes, reasonable? Are they peaceful? What are their dreams?

They are crazy. The construction of a post-national Europe is a delusional project when one considers the diversity of the continent. It has led to the expansion of the European Union, cobbled together and unstable, into the former Soviet space. The EU is now Russophobic and warmongering, with its aggression renewed by its economic defeat at the hands of Russia. The EU is trying to drag the British, French, German and many other peoples into a real war. But what a strange war it would be, in which the Western elites have adopted Hitler’s dream of destroying Russia!

The comparison by social class therefore allows us to make a major intellectual breakthrough. Europeanism, and therefore Macronism, fall, through their external aggressiveness, on the side of nationalism, on the side of the pre-war far right. If we add to this the increasingly massive and systematic violations of freedom of information and popular suffrage within the EU, we come even closer to the notion of the far right. Founded as an association of liberal democracies, Europe is mutating into a far-right space. Yes, the comparison with the 1930s is useful, even indispensable.

In the grandiose Europeanist project, we find a psychopathological dimension already observable in Hitlerism: paranoia. Europeanist paranoia focuses on Russia. Nazi paranoia made the Jewish threat a priority, without however neglecting Russian Bolshevism (known as Judeo-Bolshevism).

Todd goes on to expand on that by looking at the irrational European Union reaction to the war in Ukraine. A bizarre reaction that is destined to destroy the EU itself.

In his latest part of his argument on why the EU needs to be dismantled Thomas Fazi makes a somewhat related point:

It is worth stressing that the European Commission, led by von der Leyen, played a crucial role in devising the sanctions regime against Russia and ensuring the bloc’s alignment with (or better, subordination to) the aggressive US-NATO strategy. By using the Ukraine crisis to surreptitiously broaden the powers of the Commission, at the expense of the Council and member states, von der Leyen was able to assume the role of de facto “commander in chief” of the Union, ensuring a much more hawkish response — and a much more destructive economic blowback — than a more consensual intergovernmental approach would likely have led to. In other words, the search for the underlying structural causes of the EU’s lack of competitiveness leads us once again right back to… the EU itself.

The question left about the EU is how to peacefully end it.

Today the Ukrainian former president Vladimir Zelenski will be in Washington to convince U.S. President Donald Trump to further turn the screws on Russia.

A call yesterday between President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Trump was initiated by the Russians to preempt any concessions from Trump to Ukraine.

A major headache for the Russians was the potential introduction of U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles onto the battlefield. While these weapons are old, and can easily be defended against, they are, in principle, nuclear capable. They are also complex and can not be fired without the input from U.S. satellites, U.S. intelligence analysis and specialized software.

Tomahawks are naval missiles. There are less than a handful of ground launchers which were only recently introduced to the U.S. military. Any launch of a Tomahawk from Ukrainian ground would thus have to be done by the U.S. military. Any U.S. firing of a potentially nuclear armed missile towards Moscow would have to have serious consequences.

Russia would HAVE to respond to such an attack with a direct attack on major U.S. assets. Otherwise its means of (nuclear) deterrence would lose of all of their values.

Putin wanted to avoid that situation and the decisions that would have followed from it. Thus his call to Donald Trump.

So far that part of the call of seems to have been successful:

In recent days, Mr Trump had shown an openness to selling Ukraine long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, even as Mr Putin warned that such a move would further strain the US-Russian relationship.

But following Thursday’s call with Mr Putin, Mr Trump appeared to downplay the prospects of Ukraine getting the missiles, which have a range of about 995 miles (1,600km).

“We need Tomahawks for the United States of America too,” Mr Trump said.

“We have a lot of them, but we need them. I mean, we can’t deplete our country.”

After the call Trump announced that there would soon be a new summit between him and President Putin:
Cont. reading: A Preemptive Putin-Trump Call And The Prospects Of A New Summit

There are a number of indicators which lets one predict that the Trump administration, during the next election, will use government forces to severely attack and disrupt all opposition to it.

Trump has send the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents into the cities to harass and arrest alleged illegal immigrants. Due cause is disregarded and the methods used by the agents are brutal.

Trump has also sent National Guard troops into cities where, he claimed, riots were taking place. There were no riots or ‘terrorist incidents’ but the presence of troops is used to create a militarized atmosphere.

A new National Security Presidential Memorandum, NSPM-7 issued by Trump has defined new classes of internal enemies:

With the mainstream media distracted by the made-for-TV drama of James Comey’s indictment, Trump has signed a little-noticed national security directive identifying “anti-Christian” and “anti-American” views as indicators of radical left violence.
…
In NSPM-7, “Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence,” President Trump directs the Justice Department, the FBI, and other national security agencies and departments to fight his version of political violence in America, retooling a network of Joint Terrorism Task Forces to focus on “leftist” political violence in America. This vast counterterrorism army, made up of federal, state, and local agents would, as Trump aide Stephen Miller said, form “the central hub of that effort.”
…
The Trump administration isn’t only targeting organizations or groups but even individuals and “entities” whom NSPM-7 says can be identified by any of the following “indicia” (indicators) of violence:
anti-Americanism,

• anti-capitalism,
• anti-Christianity,
• support for the overthrow of the United States Government,
• extremism on migration,
• extremism on race,
• extremism on gender,
• hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on family,
• hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on religion, and
• hostility towards those who hold traditional American views on morality.

“The United States requires a national strategy to investigate and disrupt networks, entities, and organizations that foment political violence so that law enforcement can intervene in criminal conspiracies before they result in violent political acts,” the directive states (emphasis mine).

That all may sound laughable but these are unfortunately serious policies .  The target list includes organizations which do not exist:
Cont. reading: Trump’s War Against ‘Left-leaning’ Groups Extends Further