|
Meta: On MoA Moderation
MoA commentator Karlof seems to be pi**ed because some comment he tried to post here did not appear. As he writes at his own blog:
I provided what follows in a comment made to the current Iran thread at Moon of Alabama, but the site owner trashed it for some unknown, unexplained reason despite its obvious vital importance to understanding the events surrounding this war. What follows are a portion of Lavrov’s opening remarks that relate to the topic followed by an excerpt from the first Q&A that’s then followed by the most important question posed:
[1684 words long quote from Lavrov’s press conference]
The blog software Moon of Alabama is running on has, like others, functionalities which somewhat protect against being overwhelmed by spam comments. The system will filter comments following certain criteria into three buckets.
Most of the comments entered at MoA will be published without further review.
– Spam:
Comments which come from known spam addresses or include advertisement for certain products will be deleted automatically. Each day there are some 50 to 100 “Buy Viagra” or similar comments that fall under this criteria. This part of the system is astonishing reliable. That’s why I rarely review the comments which are being filtered at this stage. They simply vanish.
– Moderation:
Comments which:
- exceed a certain length
- include more than 5 links
- include certain swearwords
- come from certain IP addresses
will be withheld from immediate publishing for review by the moderator. Karlof’s comment, which included a lengthy Lavrov quote, was caught by this filter.
– Manual review:
Cont. reading: Meta: On MoA Moderation
War On Iran: – Not ‘Getting’ Iran – War Delusions – Losing The Status Of Superpower
Trump’s speech on Wednesday night did not offer anything new. But taken together with his threats to bomb Iran back to stone age, points to the further escalation of the war.
Trump and some around him still do not ‘get’ Iran. They never in their own life held any principle they would not deviated from if money was to be made. Iran, in contrast, does have principles that are not up for sale. It is beyond Trump’s comprehension that such exit:
In a phone interview the next morning [Apr 2], Trump told TIME that Iran was eager to make a deal to end the fighting. ‘Why wouldn’t they call? We just blew up their three big bridges last night,” the President says. “They’re getting decimated. They say Trump is not negotiating with Iran. I mean, it’s sort of an easy negotiation.”
Iran does not work like that. It is not ruled by sell-outs.
Trump and those who support him are still deeply delusional about their real power. Consider the Washington Post‘s opinion writer Marc Thiessen who insists (archived) that the U.S. has the military means to win the war within a few weeks:
Rather than waiting for Iran to agree to the conditions he has put on the table, [Trump] can simply impose the peace terms he has set unilaterally.
Here’s how to do so in five steps:
1. Complete all remaining military tasks. Trump said the war will “continue until our objectives are fully achieved.” So which tasks remain? Seize or destroy Iran’s fissile material so the regime cannot easily restart its nuclear program (or give what Trump calls its “nuclear dust” to terrorists for a dirty bomb). Take out all the remaining targets on the military’s list. Implement the innovative plan that sources tell me Centcom Commander Adm. Brad Cooper has prepared to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, and then hand the mission over to a multinational armada made up of countries who receive oil from the strait, which must take responsibility for keeping it open. Or, alternatively, the United States can charge a substantial “escort fee” for each ship passing through the strait, which would be waived for countries participating in the mission. And then, finally, either take control of Kharg Island, by seizing or blockading this linchpin of Iran’s energy export sector, or destroy it to cripple Iran’s ability to fund terrorist proxies and a military rebuild.
If the U.S. completes these tasks, it will have a stranglehold over Iran, and the regime will never again be able to hold the world’s economy hostage. U.S. military commanders believe that these objectives can be achieved in the next two to three weeks, …
Trump, probably after reading Thiessen’s pamphlet, seems to agree with this:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Not ‘Getting’ Iran – War Delusions – Losing The Status Of Superpower
Iran Open Thread 2026-067
News & views related to the war in Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-066
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-065
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
War On Iran: The Best Choice Is To Retreat – More Likely Though Is Escalation
U.S. President Donald Trump will give a live speech tonight at 9:00pm ET.
He might announce that:
- the U.S. will retreat from the War on Iran he had launched or
- that U.S. troops have started to invade Iranian territory.
No. 1 seems unlikely as AIPAC, hawkish Republicans and Zionist Democrats are all against a U.S. retreat.
No. 2 seems irrational as any invasion of Iranian territory is destined to end in defeat.
The U.S. has deployed additional A-10 ground fighter airplanes to the Gulf. Deploying these points to a ground operation, probably to seize some islands.
Meanwhile the severity of the global energy crisis the war has caused is starting to get recognize.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telgraph is warning (archived) of the even bigger oil shock we need to expect if things escalate from here:
The world has lost over a tenth of its daily oil supply, along with critical volumes of jet fuel, diesel and refined petroleum products. Now prepare for loss of the next tenth, hitting just as all the short-term fixes are exhausted.
…
The pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen have finally joined the Gulf war, opening a second front in the Red Sea and endangering a further 6pc of global oil supply.
…
David Fyfe, the chief economist at Argus Media, says prices will reach traumatic levels if the Red Sea now comes under fire and remains closed for weeks.
“You can pick any arbitrary number – $200[/bbl], or anything you want – the risk is that we’ll see huge demand destruction, inflation going through the roof and global growth shuddering to a halt. It is a horrible thought,” says Fyfe, who used to run the oil division at the International Energy Agency.
…
Every corner of the globe will be hit by Apr 20 or thereabouts. Regional prices will converge via arbitrage and there will then be a planetary oil crisis with very few places left to hide.
The horror this means for us average people – including mass starvation in the global South – seems hard to imagine but will soon become real.
There is pressure on Trump to “do something” about this. The best he could do to lower the consequences of an energy crisis is to retreat from the Middle East.
But to give up control over a major sea lane, one through which much of the blood of the global economy is flowing, means to give up on the U.S. status as a super power and global hegemon. It would be a huge step, a necessary one in the long term, but one that is likely to only be taken after years of war and, like in Vietnam, a deeply punishing defeat.
War On Iran: It Is Cheaper To Pay For Hormuz Passage Than To Wage War
U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly ready to give up on the Persian Gulf passage:
Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz (archived) – WSJ
In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.
There are also military options the president could decide on, but they are not his immediate priority, they said.
Trump is considering to give up because he has no ability to reopen the Gulf by military or other means. The U.S. Navy is lacking the basic equipment to reopen sea passages – de-mining vessels – and it is lacking the arsenal depth needed to defend against the onslaught of missile, drones and torpedoes that would slaughter its ships should they try to pass through the Strait.
Iran controls 270 degrees of the bent of the passage. Its coast is mountainous with many hide outs from where weapons can be released. To reopen the passage by force, a 100,000+ strong army would need to invade, take and hold the Iranian coastline. There is no such forces as no country is willing to commit its soldiers to such a suicide mission.
Trump is now searching for other he can push into opening the closure he himself with war on Iran has caused:
All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT
(TS: 31 Mar 07:11 ET)
After 32 days of Trump’s “My war, your Hormuz problem …” has gone through many phases:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: It Is Cheaper To Pay For Hormuz Passage Than To Wage War
War On Iran: “And then? What?”
Trump’s latest outburst, intended to cool the market, issued about an hour ago:
The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.” Thank you for your attention to this matter.
President DONALD J. TRUMP
Fitting:
bigger
Cartoon via Rob CampbellA relevant and revealing response to any of Trump’s proposed actions is: “And then? What?”
From the latest War Update by Hamidreza Azizi:
Iranian planning is no longer centered on absorbing strikes but on shaping the battlefield in advance. A concept described as “preemptive destruction” is emerging, involving continuous targeting of U.S. bases, logistics hubs, and staging areas in countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain to disrupt any potential ground or heliborne operation before it can be executed.
Iran Open Thread 2026-064
News & views related to the war in Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-063
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-062
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-062
On The Failure Of Shock And Awe In Iran
One Sergey Poletaev (quoted here) writes in RT about the Shock and Awe doctrine:
Russia also succumbed to the idea of the shock and awe doctrine.
After the war with Georgia in 2008, the Russian military was restructured to carry out rapid and destructive military interventions. However, Russia was the first to stumble on this doctrine. In spring 2022, it faced a critical choice: Either fight a serious, bloody war of attrition or settle for a disgraceful peace. Moscow chose war, and the Ukraine conflict has now entered its fifth year.
Trump now finds himself at a similar crossroads: Fight or to concede defeat. The problem is that the entire Western military-industrial complex has spent decades adapting to the shock and awe doctrine; NATO and the US possess unparalleled and exorbitantly expensive airstrike capabilities, but don’t have many other resources. If a targeted nation can withstand the initial air assaults, time will be on its side – unlike Russia, the West lacks the resources for a prolonged military campaign.
This explains the ‘gestures of goodwill’ Trump is currently making toward Iran. Just like Putin in spring 2022, he needs to buy time and figure out his next move: Continue fighting, launch a highly risky landing operation, or settle for a humiliating peace. The first option could spell disaster for Trump in the upcoming midterm elections, while the second could bring the US the most significant strategic defeat since Vietnam.
MoA commentator English Outsider replies to it: (Please read his use of “we” in scare quotes. It obviously does not include MoA readers 😉
Cont. reading: On The Failure Of Shock And Awe In Iran
War On Iran: Exorbitant Munition Spending + Lack Of Success = Iran Is Winning
There are a few new numbers out on munitions availability on either side of the conflict.
The Washington Post says (archived) that the U.S. has fired some 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles onto Iran. The total available stock of Tomahawks is somewhere between 3,000 and 4,000.
But the limit for the use of these long reach weapons is elsewhere. The missiles are usually fired from U.S. Navy vessels. They have limited loads of up to 72 Tomahawks each. When those are expended the vessels need to leave the scene to go to a friendly harbor for reloading. (Reloading large missiles at sea has been tested by is still in its infancy.)
The 16 or so destroyers and submarines the U.S. has around the Gulf are by now mostly ‘Winchester’, i.e. out of Tomahawk missiles to fire. But they can no leave the scene yet as their air-defense capabilities are still needed to take on Iranian missiles.
Air-defense missiles are also lacking. As the British Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) reported three days ago:
[O]ver a dozen munition types have been expended by the coalition at a rate that appears to be unsustainable. Already, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger noted on 19 March that global stockpiles are ‘empty or nearly empty’ and that if the war continues another month ‘we nearly have no missiles available’.
…
Given that Iran has damaged at least a dozen US and allied radars and satellite terminals, the efficiency of interception decreases; using 10 or 11 interceptors for one missile or 8 patriot missiles for one drone becomes unsustainable.
…
[T]he US military is approximately a month, or less, away from running out of ATACMS/PrSM ground-attack missiles and THAAD interceptors. Israel is in an even more precarious spot, with its Arrow interceptor missiles likely to be completely expended by the end of March. While the war could proceed with other munitions, this implies accepting greater risk for aircraft and tolerating more missile and drone ‘leakers’ damaging forces and infrastructure.
RUSI provides some tables and background on the industry difficulties to replenish the stockpiles.
On the other side of the equation is the damage the USraeli campaign has done to Iran. Over 10,000 ‘targets’ have been hit but the main aim of defeating Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities is, despite President Trump’s claims, still far from being reached:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: Exorbitant Munition Spending + Lack Of Success = Iran Is Winning
War on Iran: – Just A Few Links …
Trump has set mid May as the new date for his visit in Beijing. He seems to assume that his war on Iran is over by then. I doubt that.
—I do expect some U.S. operation on this Friday after the financial markets have closed. What is planned is a PR stunt – some spectacular, low-risk, high-visibility operation. Some seizure of some small island would fit this – probably in conjunction with second operation in form of an in-out raid. There simply aren’t enough troops in the area for any bigger sustained action.
—Cont. reading: War on Iran: – Just A Few Links …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-061
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine) Thread 2026-060
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine …
War On Iran: – U.S.-Iranian None-Talks – The Battle Continues – Bad U.S. Options – Proxy War Escalation
When President trump TACOed out from his threat to bomb Iran’s infrastructure he asserted that there had been “good and productive conversations” with Iran. I suspected that there had been no talks at all with Iran.
This turned out to be correct. There had only been a third party which had delivered a U.S. request for talks:
Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.
He recently reached out to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, proposing that Pakistan host talks between Iran and the United States, said an Iranian official and a Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive communications.
According to Israeli media the U.S. administration conveyed 15 conditions to Iran as its terms for ending the current war. The conditions repeat the demands the U.S. made before the war started – nothing nuclear, no missiles, no proxies – and in return offer the relief of only some of the sanctions imposed on Iran:
12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
What about U.S. imposed sanctions? The paper does not mentioned them …
This is not an offer but a demand to surrender. Iran has of course rejected these and repeated its own conditions for ending the war:
- A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy.
- The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic.
- Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations.
- The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region
- Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is and will remain Iran’s natural and legal right, and it constitutes a guarantee for the implementation of the other party’s commitments, and must be recognized.
—As the economic troubles caused by the war continue to deepen, especially in Asia but also in the U.S. and Europe ( archived), time is on the Iranian side: Cont. reading: War On Iran: – U.S.-Iranian None-Talks – The Battle Continues – Bad U.S. Options – Proxy War Escalation
War On Iran: – Trump Cashes Out – Social Unrest – Arabs Joining The War – Iran Invasion
Yesterday, just minutes before President Trump’s most recent TACO, insiders placed bets on rising stocks and lower oil prices. They made a killing:
Traders placed $580mn in oil bets ahead of Donald Trump’s social media post on Iran talks (archived) – FT
Traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting “productive” talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling and ignited volatility in other assets.
Roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands between 6.49am and 6.50am New York time on Monday, just a quarter of an hour ahead of the US president’s post on Truth Social that there had in recent days been “productive conversations” with Tehran to end the war in Iran. The notional value of those trades was $580mn, according to FT calculations based on Bloomberg data.
Trading volumes for Brent and WTI leapt at the same time, 27 seconds before 6.50am. Futures tracking the S&P 500 share index jumped in price moments after the oil trade, with volumes also rising significantly during that timeframe.
It was not known whether one entity or several entities were behind Monday’s trades.
Trump’s next threat to Iran – re-open the Strait of Hormuz to traffic or else – will most likely come on Friday, after the markets have close. It would not be beyond Trump to again play this week’s game and to offer another TACO shortly before next Monday’s opening.
In between the conflict continues. The U.S. continues to bomb Iran. As does Israel. Barrages of Iranian missile continue to strike the Zionist entity. There are vague reports that energy infrastructure in Iran has been hit. If that has indeed happened expect Iran to hit back at infrastructure in Arab Gulf region.
—Oil prices are creeping up again. The conflict has not been defused by Trump’s TACO but threatens to intensify. The market interruptions it causes will be lengthy. I have warned that this will lead to public unrest first and foremost in those Asian states which have the biggest dependencies on Middle East oil. Here are the first signs of it:
Philippines Declares National Emergency Over High Fuel Prices (archived) – NY Times
Earlier on Tuesday, the Philippines’ Department of Energy said it had enough gasoline in reserve to last 53 days, enough diesel for 46 days and enough jet fuel for about 39 days. Diesel prices have doubled since the war began, surpassing 120 pesos, or $2, per liter.
Many government offices have switched to a four-day workweek to save energy, and Mr. Marcos has called on the public to car pool. The government has also been handing out 5,000 pesos each to tens of thousands of autorickshaw and jeepney drivers around Manila who are suffering from the higher prices.
Mr. Marcos is under intense pressure to deal with the situation. A coalition of transportation workers has called for mass protests around Manila, the capital, on Thursday and Friday about the price spike and what they consider inadequate measures by the government. On Tuesday, the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a major newspaper, published a column with the headline, “Nation on brink: This oil crisis may destroy everything we built.”
—There are again reports about Arab Gulf States allegedly pushing Trump to extend the war. Other reports claim that the Gulf states are ready to join with their own forces. I recommend to take such reports with a boatload of salt.
Saudi Prince Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls – NY Times
Gulf States Edge Toward Joining Fight Against Iran (archived) – WSJ
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates get tougher on basing and finances
The U.S. would love to see the Arabs to join the fight. They would have to buy lots of expensive weapons and take the damage. This while the U.S. could skip out of the conflict (see Ukraine).
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are sitting in glass-houses. Their existences depends on a few hard to defend desalination plants, electricity generation facilities and energy export outlets. They are in range of short range missiles of which Iran has plenty. There are also the Houthi… . If the Arab states were to actively join the bombing of Iran it would be their end.
—The U.S. has ordered two Marine Expeditionary Units into the Gulf region. There are also alarms out for the 82nd Airborne Division, an ‘Immediate Response Force’ of some 3,000 soldiers which would add the the 1,600 Marines ground forces in the MEUs.
Pentagon Officials Weigh Deployment of Airborne Troops for Iran War (archived) – NY Times
Given the circumstances these are paltry forces usable only for very limited purposes. But it may well be the advance party of a much larger force that will take months to build.
There are still talks about taking Iran’s Kharg island, the main export station for Iranian oil. I did explain two weeks ago why that is no option. There are also three small islands in the middle of the Strait, Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb, which are held by Iran but claimed by the Emirates:
Due to the depth of sea, oil tankers and big ships have to pass between Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs, which makes these islands some of the most strategic points in the Persian Gulf.
These islands could be taken but, despite the above Wikipedia claim, their strategic value in this conflict is limited. Iranian reconnaissance drones, long range radar and anti-ship missiles have eroded their roles as interdiction stations. Taking those islands may have some PR value. But it would not lift the blockade of the Strait and the cost of holding them would soon become prohibitive.
Another potential target for an incursion into Iran could be its south-eastern city of Chabahar. It has a deep sea port and would be a good staring point for a larger invasion force. But Chabahar, with some 100,000 inhabitants, is a too big city to take with a mere 5,000 strong raiding force. Chabahar borders the Baluchistan region of Pakistan which makes any incursion of it politically complicate.
War On Iran: Trump Chickens Out – Who Lobbied For War – The Energy Dominance Aim
On Saturday U.S. president Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran’s electricity network and other infrastructure within 48 hours should it not reopen the Strait of Hormuz for all shipping:
“If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!” Trump posted on social media around 7:45 p.m. EDT (2345 GMT) on Saturday.
Iran responded by threatening retaliation against the infrastructure of U.S. client states in the Gulf. Any such attack would have devastating consequences:
“If Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy infrastructure, as well as information technology…and water desalination facilities, belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted pursuant to previous warnings,” Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari said, according to state media.
On early Monday morning the markets reacted nervously. Treasuries, stocks and gold were all down.
As the markets threatened to tank, and shortly before the deadline Trump had given to Iran, he chickened out:
biggerI suspect, and Iranian sources confirm, that there have been no talks with Iran. Trump is inventing these talks to save himself from the catastrophic consequences any attempt to fulfill his threat would have entailed.
In five days, after the markets have closed for the week, Trump may well renew his threat.
—I had warned that, even if peace would happen today, it would still take many months to recover from oil and gas supply slumps. The Economist has made some calculations on how long it will it take for the oil and gas market to normalize:
Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous (archived)
Even if Donald Trump and Iran reached a deal to stop fighting tomorrow, it would thus be another four months before markets regained some semblance of normality. Producers elsewhere cannot crank up output fast enough to recover past losses. The result is to shave off some 3% of planned global oil production this year. Every month Ras Laffan stays shut, the world loses around 7m tonnes of lng—nearly 2% of projected annual supply. And full capacity will, owing to the latest strikes, be lower than before. The upshot is that production will fall 4% short of demand this year even if Qatar started pumping what it can today.
…
Oil and gas traders are still banking on a spring miracle. The world is praying for one. But even if Mr Trump and Iran’s ayatollahs grant this wish, the logistics of oil and gas will not be easily appeased. Energy markets will be living with the war’s fallout well into northern winter.
My hunch is that these estimates are on the optimistic side of things.
—While crying crocodile tears over alleged innocent people sitting in jail in Iran the U.S. has been attacking prisons in Iran:
The Iranian Prisons Where Bombs Are Threatening Dissidents and Americans (archived) – WSJ
Airstrikes have damaged complexes used to hold political detainees, according to a Wall Street Journal visual investigation—putting their lives in danger
—A few more background pieces on how the war on Iran unfolded are coming out. It is hard to say how much these are myth-building or reality. Anyway – here is the gists of they are spreading:
Israel Thought It Could Spur Rebellion Inside Iran. That Hasn’t Happened. (archived) – NY Times
President Trump’s hopes that an Israeli plan to ignite an internal uprising against Iran’s theocratic government could bring the war to a swift end have so far been dashed.
Within days of the war’s beginning, said David Barnea, the Mossad chief, his service would likely be able to galvanize the Iranian opposition — igniting riots and other acts of rebellion that could even lead to the collapse of Iran’s government. Mr. Barnea also presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January.
Mr. Netanyahu adopted the plan. Despite doubts about its viability among senior American officials and some officials in other Israeli intelligence agencies, both he and President Trump seemed to embrace an optimistic outlook. Killing Iran’s leaders at the outset of the conflict, followed by a series of intelligence operations intended to encourage regime change, they thought, could lead to a mass uprising that might bring about a swift end to the war.
“Take over your government: It will be yours to take,” Mr. Trump told Iranians in his initial address at the war’s start, after saying they should first seek shelter from the bombing.
Three weeks into the war, an Iranian uprising has not yet materialized.
Trump’s Iran War Drive Exposes Limits of ‘Yes Sir’ Cabinet (archived) – Bloomberg
Those privately pressing Trump to strike Iran included Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, media mogul Rupert Murdoch and some conservative commentators, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. The News Corp. founder communicated with Trump several times as he urged the president to take on Tehran, according to one person briefed on their interactions.
Meanwhile, some of Trump’s closest advisers were more muted about the prospect of an armed conflict, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, the people said.
Few, if any, told him directly it was an ill-conceived idea. Wiles tried to ensure the president understood his options, the people said, while Vance urged top officials to speak candidly to the president and about the possibility of war. In private meetings before the attacks, Vance asked questions about how any war would work.
The above ‘blame Netanyahoo’ pieces are missing the big picture view. This war fits a long term U.S. strategy and thus had to happen:
America is Achieving Full-Spectrum Energy Dominance — And Nobody is Paying Attention
I have said it many times, and I will say it again: the United States does not lose wars. If it did, it would stop waging them. Whether Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, or Libya — failed states are not failures of Empire. They are the victories of Empire. And Empire is on a roll.
Now the same chorus rises over Iran. Left and right, the refrain is identical: this will be a disaster, America is overreaching, Iran will be its graveyard. The same voices. The same blindness. The same century-old script.
…
Medhurst argues that the United States, far from stumbling into another disastrous West Asian quagmire, is executing a calculated seizure of the planet’s energy supply — and that the wars on Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, and now Iran are not separate blunders but sequential steps toward a single goal: total energy dominance.
While energy dominance may be the over-arching aim Washington has there are doubts that it is achievable:
How the Iran war is turning America’s energy dominance into a mirage – The National
There are non-fossil energy alternatives coming up and penetrating the markets. Any attempt to monopolize fossil fuels and to ramp up its prices will increase the adoption of non-fossil alternatives and thereby defeat itself.
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-059
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
|
