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War On Iran: – All Signs Point To Escalation
On Sunday U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to devastate Iran:
‘We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran,’ Trump wrote.
‘NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years.
‘IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!’
The deal Trump is offering is, of course, neither reasonable nor fair.
Masoud Pezeshkian @drpezeshkian – 15:34 utc · Apr 20, 2026
Honoring commitments is the basis of meaningful dialogue. Deep historical mistrust in Iran toward U.S. gov conduct remains, while unconstructive & contradictory signals from American officials carry a bitter message; they seek Iran’s surrender. Iranians do not submit to force.
To surrender is something Iran can not and will not do.
Larry Johnson, Alastair Crooke, Gideon Rachman of the FT and others find it likely that war will further escalate. Michael Tracey points out that Trump has not and is not bluffing. He will order to bomb all power plants and bridges.
The current ceasefire, which the U.S. has already broken with its blockade of Iran and by last night’s high-jacking of an Iranian container ship, will run out Tuesday evening. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Islamabad, if they happen at all, will likely not start before Wednesday.
U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran might well restart before they happen. Trump may wait though until the markets have closed on Friday.
If it happens it will be absolutely massive – as will Iran’s retaliation.
Iran Open Thread 2026-080
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-079
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-078
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex – 18:31 utc · Apr 17, 2026
When simulation becomes the norm, it weakens the human capacity for discernment. As a result, our social bonds close in upon themselves, forming self-referential circuits that no longer expose us to reality. We thus come to live within bubbles, impermeable to one another. Feeling threatened by anyone who is different, we grow unaccustomed to encounter and dialogue. In this way, polarization, conflict, fear and violence spread. What is at stake is not merely the risk of error, but a transformation in our very relationship with truth.
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-078
War On Iran: – Trump Claims Victory, Lays Grounds To Resume Fighting
In yesterday’s summarization of the state of the war on Iran I had warned that the announced ceasefire and re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz was standing on a fragile base:
After the announcement of the original ceasefire the U.S. [had] announced a blockade of all shipping to, from, and related to Iran. Earlier today Iran had hinted that it will close the Bab-al Mandeb entry into the Red Sea should the U.S. blockade persist.
It is jet unknown if, how and when the issue of the blockade is to be solved. Should the U.S. be unwilling to lift it, the conflict is sure to re-escalate.
Meanwhile U.S. President Donald Trump was all over social media pretending that the conflict with Iran had been resolved (archived):
President Donald Trump declared Friday that Iran has agreed to virtually all his demands to end its nuclear program forever and said that talks to finalize the deal, “probably” held this weekend, “should go very quickly.”
In a flurry of social media posts and media interviews, Trump said the United States “will work with Iran” at what he called “a leisurely pace” — with no need for American ground troops — to retrieve all of its buried highly enriched uranium and turn it over to the U.S. He said Iran would receive no money for agreeing to an “unlimited” halt to all nuclear activities.
With U.S. help, Trump said, Iran was removing all sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz — which Tehran, earlier in the day, said it would reopen to commercial shipping. He said Iran has agreed “never to close” the waterway again.
Trump’s flurry of positive claims lifted the stock market while oil prices slumped.
That may well have been its sole purpose:
BREAKING: Just 20 minutes before Trump’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open, massive trades hit the market.
Investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures, a $760 million bet that oil would go down.
These orders were much larger than anything else at the time.
The traders made huge gains.
Soon after Trump’s victory jump Iranian officials stepped in to counter his claims (archived):
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Trump Claims Victory, Lays Grounds To Resume Fighting
War On Iran: – Ceasefire In Lebanon, – Hormuz Re-opened, – Talks To Continue
On April 8 2026 the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States had agreed on a ceasefire:
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has been mediating negotiations, said early on Wednesday that the ceasefire was effective immediately.
…
Trump said he had agreed to “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” if Tehran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and other exports from the Gulf.
…
Iran has agreed to allow vessels through the Hormuz Strait for two weeks, with their passage coordinated by the Iranian military.
Unfortunately there was one issue that had prevented the ceasefire from being implemented in full:
According to Sharif, the ceasefire will also take effect in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting the Iranian-backed armed group Hezbollah.
Israel has backed the deal but says it “does not include Lebanon”, renewing strikes on Wednesday in the Tyre and Nabatieh areas in the south of the country. Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt later also said that Lebanon was not included in the deal.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) promised a “regret-inducing response” if strikes on Lebanon continue.
As USrael were unwilling to commit to the inclusion of Lebanon in the ceasefire, as negotiated, Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz closed.
The accumulating economic damage caused by the closure put pressure on the U.S. to rectify the issue. Yesterday, after increasing pressure from Washington DC, Israel finally agreed to temporarily cease its war in Lebanon:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Ceasefire In Lebanon, – Hormuz Re-opened, – Talks To Continue
Iran Open Thread 2026-077
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-076
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-075
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
Please Support Moon of Alabama
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War On Iran: – Closing The Red Sea
To break the stalemate caused by the U.S. blockade of its country the military of Iran announced that it will restrict commercial traffic across the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
It will not require much action from Iran to do so. A few drone strikes against civilian ships near Arab Gulf countries and a few threats by Ansarallah in Yemen against ships in the Red Sea will up the insurance costs sufficiently to make any traffic in those areas unprofitable.
The danger zone in the Persian Gulf/Arab Sea/Red Sea area has thus expanded to a much larger area.
The move will block another big share of oil exports from the region.
Saudi Arabia had circumvented the imposition of traffic control through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran by re-routing oil through its east-west pipeline to Yanbu in the Red Sea. Some 4 to 5 million barrels per day are exported from there. The closure of the Red Sea at its southern opening will block most of that traffic.
biggerMarine Traffic shows a large number of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) near Yanbu waiting to be loaded. With the Red Sea exit to the south closed at the Bab al Mandeb (Gate of Tears) these carriers are, as I had predicted a month ago, caught in a trap. They are too big to escape north through the Suez Channel.
biggerThe Iranian move does not change the trajectory of the conflict. It will only accelerate it. The enormous economic damage caused by the unprovoked USraeli attack on Iran is already baked in. The world economy is moving towards a severe depression.
The lack of oil and fertilizer supplies in the markets will necessitate large scale demand destructions. In the case of oil this means less driving, less air condition and fewer air planes. But the lack of fertilizers means large scale famines and deaths.
Only an immediate end of the conflict can prevent the worst of it.
War On Iran: The Stalemate Of Blockading Blockades
Following the unprovoked attack by USrael in late February, the Islamic Republic of Iran announced a (virtual) blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the Strait decreased from some 130 ships per day to less than 5 per day.
The lack of oil, gas and fertilizer coming through the Strait is going to cause a global depression.
Six weeks after its attack on Iran had cause the problem the U.S. Central Command responded by blockading all ships going to and coming from ports of Iran:
More than 10,000 U.S. Sailors, Marines, and Airmen along with over a dozen warships and dozens of aircraft are executing the mission to blockade ships entering and departing Iranian ports. During the first 24 hours, no ships made it past the U.S. blockade and 6 merchant vessels complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around to re-enter an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman.
The blockade is being enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. U.S. forces are supporting freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.
In response to the blockade of its own ports Iran announced to block all traffic from and to harbors in the wider Persian Gulf region.
Thus the situation is (again) at a stalemate. But the clock is ticking. Iran’s economy is battle hardened. It can sustain itself much longer throughout a blockade than the world can sustain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the lack of commodities following from it, and the social uproars that will be caused by this.
Something – someone – will have to give in. It is unlikely (archived) that it will be Iran doing that.
Trump And The Devil
President Donald Trump has for some time been in a public dispute with Pope Leo of the Catholic church.
Within the context of the quarrel Trump posted a picture of himself depicted as saint healer overseen by a devil.
And no – this isn’t a late April’s fool joke …
On February 4 2026, the X/Twitter account NickAdamsinUSA posted this AI slop picture of Trump as a saint healer.
biggerYesterday Trump himself posted a similar picture on his Truth Social account. It was reproduced on X/Twitter.
Cont. reading: Trump And The Devil
War On Iran: – Loser Tries Setting “Terms” – The Strange Idea Of Blockading Blockaders
The first round of talks between the U.S. and Iran has failed to achieve any progress.
The U.S. negotiators thoroughly misjudged their positions and tried to set terms (archived):
Mr. Vance said little about what took place during more than 21 hours of negotiations, suggesting he had handed the Iranians a take-it-or-leave-it proposal to forever terminate their nuclear program, and they left it.
“We’ve made very clear what our red lines are,” Mr. Vance told reporters, “what things we’re willing to accommodate them on.” He added, “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”
The U.S. has so far lost the war. None of its war aims has been achieved. Its attempts to steal Iran’s enriched Uranium ended with the biggest air force losses since the Vietnam War era. It is not in a position to set any terms:
In that respect, this negotiation appears to have differed little from the one that ended in deadlock in Geneva in late February, …
Mr. Trump’s chief leverage now comes in his ability to threaten to resume major combat operations. After all, the fragile two-week cease-fire ends on April 21. But while the threat of resuming combat operations may be invoked in coming days, it not a particularly viable political choice for Mr. Trump — and the Iranians know it.
Mr. Trump declared the cease-fire last week in large part to stem the pain from the loss of 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies, which was sending the price of gasoline soaring, creating shortages of fertilizer and, among other critical supplies, helium for the production of semiconductors. Markets rose on the prospect of an agreement, even an incomplete or unsatisfactory one. Should the war resume, the markets would likely decline, the shortages would worsen and inflation — already up to 3.3 percent — would almost inevitably rise.
And that leaves the most urgent issue: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
After the end of the negotiations a tweet by Donald Trump pointed to a piece which asserts that his best next move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is to blockade Iran:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Loser Tries Setting “Terms” – The Strange Idea Of Blockading Blockaders
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-074
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-073
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
Please check your wallet. If there’s a spare dime or so left please consider to donate it.
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-073
War On Iran: – Negotiators To Become Scapegoats For U.S. Defeat
The U.S. has threatened Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz if it wanted a ceasefire. Iran was not interested and did not agree with it. A ceasefire, it said, would require the U.S. to acknowledge that Iran stays in control of the Strait.
The Trump administration, under immense pressure due to the economic consequences of the Strait closure, acquiesced. But it needed an excuse to do so to calm the hardliners in its own camp. It thus put out a story that gave some reason to keep the Strait closed.
Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says (archived) – NY Times
Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
The development is one reason Iran has not been able to quickly comply with the Trump administration’s admonitions to let more traffic pass through the strait. It is also potentially a complicating factor as Iranian negotiators and a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance meet in Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
Iran used small boats to mine the strait last month, soon after the United States and Israel began their war against the country. The mines, plus the threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks, slowed the number of oil tankers and other vessels passing through the strait to a trickle, driving up energy prices and providing Iran with its best leverage in the war.
Iran left a path through the strait open, allowing ships that pay a toll to pass through.
This is one of the most laughable stories I have read for some time.
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Negotiators To Become Scapegoats For U.S. Defeat
War On Iran: – Selected Writings And Reports
Selected writings of interest on the War on Iran:
A long-read on how Netanyahoo pushed Trump, against all other advice, into launching the war:
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran (archived) – NY Times
In a series of Situation Room meetings, President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president and a pessimistic intelligence assessment. Here’s the inside story of how he made the fateful decision.
Mr. Netanyahu delivered his presentation in a confident monotone. It seemed to land well with the most important person in the room, the American president.
Sounds good to me, Mr. Trump told the prime minister. To Mr. Netanyahu, this signaled a likely green light for a joint U.S.-Israeli operation.
—The relation continues. After Trump had agreed that the ceasefire would include Lebanon and Iraq, Netanyahoo turned him around:
Lebanon emerges as potential spoiler to Iran deal – CBSnews
Multiple diplomatic sources told CBS News that President Trump had been told that the ceasefire announced Thursday would apply to the Middle East region, and he agreed that included Lebanon. Mediators believed the ceasefire to include Lebanon, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that it did. Araghchi also said it was included.
On the day of the ceasefire, a White House official told CBS News that Israel had also agreed with the terms of the deal that Pakistan had helped to broker.
However, the U.S. position shifted following a phone call between Netanyahu and Mr. Trump. Two sources familiar with the matter told CBS News that the changing U.S. positions, and the disjointed remnant of the regime in Iran, are making the diplomacy highly complex.
—The result of Netanyahoo’s push for war:
Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser (archived) – Economist
There is a reason he wants an exit from Iran
The war has shown that the value of America’s might is easy to overestimate. Its factories cannot resupply its armed forces fast enough, whereas Iran fought an asymmetric war with limited weapons. Too much testosterone leads to wretched judgments that confuse lethality with winning. Overwhelming firepower without a strategy saps American strength.
—On the psychology of real estate developers like Witkoff, Kushner and Trump and how it fails them at war:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Selected Writings And Reports
War On Iran: – Ceasefire Sabotage
The Trump administration’s self-congratulations for the ceasefire with Iran immediately fell apart after Israel bombed Lebanon and killed more than 250 people.
This was a breach of the ceasefire agreement which Pakistan had arranged and announced and which had included Lebanon and other areas of the conflict.
The Trump administration had been begging for a ceasefire for several days. It had been involved (archived) in formulating the message the Pakistani Prime Minister had issued. Trump himself had endorsed the 10-point condition sheet the Iranians had proposed by calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate”.
With knowledge of the imminent ceasefire members of the Trump administration had (again) waged bets on commodities and won large amounts of money.
But just a few hours after the Israeli attack the Trump administration repudiated two central points of the ceasefire. Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire, it suddenly claimed, and Iran’s 10 point sheet had been “thrown into the trash” even before Trump had endorsed it.
Iran reacted by immediately closing the Strait of Hormuz (archived) for good. Only four ships, all coming from Iranian ports, have passed during the last 24 hours.
The statement by Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is plain:
The repeated aggression by the Zionist entity against Lebanon is a flagrant violation of the initial ceasefire agreement and a dangerous indicator of deceit and lack of commitment to potential accords. The continuation of these aggressions will render negotiations meaningless; our hands will remain on the trigger, and Iran will never abandon its Lebanese brothers and sisters.
While there is currently no bombing of Iran ongoing, and no new launching of Iranian drones and missiles on USraeli targets, the quietness is unlikely to hold.
Further talks, supposed on happen on Saturday in Pakistan, are in doubt.
I expect the war to reignite before they take place.
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-072
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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