Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 14, 2026
Palestine Open Thread 2026-015

News & views related to the war in Palestine …

Ukraine Open Thread 2026-014

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Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2026-013

News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Palestine …

January 13, 2026
Iran Riots – Now What Does This Mean?

There is no Internet connection with Iran (except for a few white-listed officials). To whom then is this addressed?

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump – Jan 13, 2026, 14:43 UTC

Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA!!! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP

And what does it mean?

January 12, 2026
Regime Change Riots In Iran Fail Faster Than Expected

Just two days ago I opined that the riots in Iran would lead nowhere.

Iran Shrugs Off Another Round Of U.S./Israel Sponsored Regime Change RiotsMoA, Jan 10 2026

I especially pointed out that the U.S. had delivered Starlink satellite terminals to organizers of the riots – 40,000 of them is a rumored number – but that the Iranian government had acquired the means to detect them and to shut down their traffic.

Just a day later Forbes reports that the government did indeed used its new tools:

‘Kill Switch’—Iran Shuts Down Starlink Internet For First TimeForbes, Jan 11 2026

The Iranian government did not bother to track down single terminals but used the new Russian and Chinese equipment to shut down all Starlink traffic in Iran. Packet loss rates of 90% have made the connections unusable.

Today pro-government marches are held in all major cities of Iran. They are much bigger than anything the opposition could ever assemble. The Iranian system has again demonstrated that it is astonishingly stable. Not one official has changed side.

The riots are, for now, over. The streets tonight will likely be quiet. During the next weeks the riot leaders and instigators will be tracked down and punished – harshly one hopes in sight of the casualties on the government side.

The total blocking of Internet traffic and international phone communication in Iran was the decisive step taken to end the riots.

Without Internet access the CIA/Mossad agents directing the rioters were unable to command and control their on-the-ground forces. The lack of ‘horror’ propaganda videos from Iran, submitted via the Internet and used by the media to rake up support for western intervention, is also important. Color-revolutions à la CIA require these tools.

In 2022 the wave of U.S. induced protests in Iran took nearly three month before it subsided. This wave, started on December 28 by a massive short-selling attack on Iran’s currency, took just two weeks before it died down.

Trump, who had threatened to bomb Iran in support of the rioters, will have to pull back. The U.S. military says that it is not ready (archived) for the revenge Iran would unleash on it.

The failing of this regime change attempt shows that the methods used in it have become too obvious and can be countered. It will likely take a while before new methods are developed and new attempts will be launched.

January 11, 2026
Palestine Open Thread 2026-012

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Ukraine Open Thread 2026-011

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The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-010

Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:

  • Jan 10 – Iran Shrugs Off Another Round Of U.S./Israel Sponsored Regime Change Riots
    Related:
    WaPo (archived)

    The internet monitoring group NetBlocks said Saturday that the internet shutdown had reached 48 hours and counting, and Filterbaan, a digital rights group that focuses on Iran, said international phone calls were being blocked. Iranians in the diaspora reported being unable to reach loved ones inside the country.

    NY Times (archived)

    Yet each of the 10 protesters interviewed by The New York Times by phone — all of whom requested to withhold surnames for their safety — said …


Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-010

January 10, 2026
Iran Shrugs Off Another Round Of U.S./Israel Sponsored Regime Change Riots

Every two years or so the CIA and Mossad are instigating regime change riots in Iran. These attempts inevitably fail.

Currently a few thousand young men are during nighttime burning cars, mosques, shops and police offices in various cities of Iran. Armed agents are firing at and killing policemen. All these cells are coordinated via Internet connections.

It usually takes a week or two until Iranian government forces find the connections, trace down the ring leaders and shut them down. That process may take a little longer this time because some of the terror cells have been equipped with Starlink terminals.

As the unofficial CIA spokesman David Ignatius at the Washington Post writes (writes):

A harder question for Washington is whether to smuggle in Starlink terminals to reverse the internet blackout that Tehran imposed Friday. The Biden administration weighed that strategy during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests in 2022 and 2023 but decided against it — fearing it would put at risk crucial smuggling routes used by the CIA and Israeli intelligence. Perhaps this time, the benefit outweighs the cost.

That pretty much confirms that those terminals are already there.

Meanwhile Russia has developed equipment that allows to detect active Starlink terminals from the air. Iran has already received copies and will soon produces enough of its own to cover its cities.

Ignatius also claims that the riots are different this time because they are aimed to install a U.S./Israel sponsored puppet:

Cont. reading: Iran Shrugs Off Another Round Of U.S./Israel Sponsored Regime Change Riots

January 9, 2026
Winter Strikes Kiev

Last night Ukraine was finally confronted with the consequences of attacking Russian infrastructure.

And no, I do not mean last nights Oreshnik strike on the large gas storage facility in west Ukraine. The seismic impulse from that strike likely damaged the geological structure that allowed the gas to be stored in caverns. It can now escape and has been seen burning. Those were the Ukrainian reserves for the rest of the winter. The strike was in revenge for the late December drone strike on Russia’s strategic command facility and Putin’s home near Novgorod. It was also a warning, mostly to Europe.

But the real hurt came with a medium-sized drone and missile strike on Kiev. At least three combined-thermal-electric facilities were taken out. These used to provide water, heating and electricity to the blocks of Soviet era high rises that cover much of Kiev. These strikes, as the Russian Ministry of Defense empathizes in its reports, are in retaliation for strikes on Russian infrastructure facilities. Russia at a time, offered a ceasefire on infrastructure strikes. Ukraine did not keep to it.

Now nearly half of Kiev’s high-rise apartments have lost water, heating and electricity supplies. This while the temperature has gone down to minus 20° Celsius at night. Municipal workers have started to drain (in Russian) all water from intra-house systems. Otherwise the risers and pipes would freeze and break open. But it also means that water and heat supplies will not come back to those high-rises until the temperatures are back in a positive Celsius range.

The buildings have thus become unlivable. Hundreds of thousands if not millions will have to live elsewhere.

The mayor of Kiev Vladimir Klitschko has called on residents to leave the capital:

Half of Kyiv’s apartment buildings, almost 6,000, are currently without heat supply after critical infrastructure in the capital was damaged in a large-scale Russian attack.

“Municipal workers have connected social facilities – in particular hospitals and maternity hospitals – to mobile boiler houses. And together with energy workers they are working to bring electricity and heat supply back to Kyiv residents’ homes,” Klitschko said.

He added that the combined attack on Kyiv on the night of 8-9 January was the most painful for the capital’s critical infrastructure facilities.

“City services are operating under emergency conditions. And unfortunately weather conditions are forecast to be difficult in the coming days.

I also appeal to residents of the capital who have the opportunity to temporarily leave the city and go where there are alternative sources of power and heat, to do so,” Klitschko concluded.

A similar situation exist in Dnipro, one of Ukraine’s most industrial cities, since yesterday.

During the war the parts of the Ukrainian population that were not directly involved in fighting seemed to have little interest in what was happening. There was still a lot of nightlife in Kiev, all goods were available and even the few short interruptions of electricity were not much to bother with.

This will now change. Electricity is off for most of the time. Shops are closing because running business on generators is unprofitable. Local public transport is mostly down. Longer range tail transport is interrupted. Apartments are unlivable. The consequences of the war have become personal.

This will change the mood even of those who want to prolong the war. The numbers of those willing to accept the loss of territory in exchange for peace will rise.

After a while a change of policies will follow for this.

Trump Has Changed And TDS With Him

When Trump did win his second term there were many people, including here, who were a bit in panic. Other characterized that as a ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ (TDS).

I had preferred Trump over the blabbering incompetent person the Democrats had put up as their candidate. I did not like Trump’s policies but I also thought that he would do just minor damage just like during his first term in office.

At first it looked like I had been right. The Alaska meeting with President Putin went reasonably well. The war in Ukraine seemed to move towards some sane outcome. His domestic policies were a bit wild but not far off from the expected trajectory.

Things have been going downward since. Something has definitely changed. But why and how this derangement happened is yet unknown.

The late December CIA attack on Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region, which includes strategic command facilities, has broken the rules that have governed relations between nuclear powers over many decades. Those relations have now deteriorated beyond fixing.

The attack on Venezuela was likewise beyond any reasonability. There is little chance that the U.S. will ever get what it wants from the country without on the ground intervention. But any commitment of troops to Caracas would end in disaster.

The administration defense of ICE goons, who clearly broke all rules of policing when they killed an innocent women, is also beyond all reasonability. There are certainly ways to explain the incident but they decided to smear the obvious victim.

That such behavior has become and will stay the norm for the Trump administration can be concluded from two recent interviews.

The first was on January 5 at CNN with Trump aide Stephen Miller:

Cont. reading: Trump Has Changed And TDS With Him

January 8, 2026
Palestine Open Thread 2026-009

News & views related to the war in Palestine …

Ukraine Open Thread 2026-008

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Open (Neither Ukraine Nor Palestine) Thread 2026-007

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More Ideas On How To Counter The Mafia’s Increasing Activities

I have asked for suggestions on how Russia, Venezuela and others can respond to U.S. lawless behavior.

Commentator Tom Paine answers thus:

A number of points which are probably more an effort to summarise than to add novelty.

  1. US has no legal, moral or geopolitical constraints. It wants war with Russia and China. It will provoke until that happens.
  2. The current strategy is to make Putin look weak. Russian prudence may be a rational answer but it is no longer the right one.
  3. Much of US behaviour is conditioned by its feeling that it is too remote to suffer. Europe can be made to suffer because it is a satrapy. Logically, the US must be forced to recognise its own vulnerability.
  4. Since the US is now attacking and plundering Russian-flagged shipping, the situation is familiar and uncomplicated. Tactics for blockade-busting are well known. Arm your merchantmen, protect them using convoys, seize hostile assets, destroy attackers. The advent of real-time communications and precise missile targeting should decimate exposed USN forces. When in doubt, be a Houthi.
  5. Russia and China must stop attempting to wage war with words. Actions speak for themselves.
  6. If you do not effectively support your allies, you send a message that you cannot be relied on. Russia must be seen to be active in Iran, VZ, Cuba and elsewhere.
  7. Yes, bullies are stopped by fighting back. Bullies are psychologically unable to think except in terms of superior/inferior relationships. Efforts to negotiate rationally just demonstrate that you are not on their ‘ladder’ of relationships, and therefore are weak and must be attacked. Fight first. Establishing that connection will result in much less long-term damage than efforts at rational compromise. It could have avoided Gaza or Syria.
  8. US strength is its infinite cash supply, which supports a nearly-infinite collection of CIA cutouts and regime change NGOs. Cut it off.
  9. US weakness is its reliance on a financialised PR military with lots of highly-visible targets. The Houthis are right. It must be shown to be overpriced, ineffective and feeble. The US itself has never been weaker militarily.
  10. The answer to dirty war and guerilla ops is the same. Russia will always be blamed for black ops so there is no visible gain in avoiding them.
  11. Unity, unity, unity. The real fight is about unity. Russia and China can see that they fight for survival. The West fights only for plunder. One is a great force for unity, the other is not.

I mostly agree with the above. To the last point I would add any other country, Iran etc., that wants to retain some sovereignty. It must be a big, global coalition, not just three superpowers fighting it out.

(Meta note: I am in blocking mode. Derailing the comments from the content and context of the post will get you banned.)

January 7, 2026
Mafia Increases Activities

Both of these current news items about criminal U.S. behavior trigger the question “What are you going to do about it?”

RT.com

US military breached UN maritime convention – Russia

The Russian Transport Ministry has confirmed that the oil tanker ‘Marinera’ has been captured by the US military.

Earlier on Wednesday, the US European Command announced having taken possession of the ship, previously named the ‘Bella 1’, for alleged “violation of US sanctions.”

The tanker was boarded by US military personnel “in the high seas outside the territorial waters of any state,” and that “contact with the vessel was lost,” the Russian Transport Ministry has said.

“On December 24, 2025, the Marinera received a temporary permit to fly the Russian flag, issued in accordance with Russian and international law,” the ministry stated, adding that the attack on the vessel came in violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which ensures freedom of navigation in international waters.

AP:

Trump’s Energy Department outlines new policies for Venezuelan oil

The Trump administration is “selectively” removing sanctions to enable the shipping and sale of Venezuelan oil to markets worldwide, according to an outline of the policies published Wednesday by the Energy Department.

The oil sales are slated to begin immediately with the sale of 30 million to 50 million barrels from the South American country, and “will continue indefinitely,” the outline says.

Proceeds will settle in U.S. controlled accounts at “globally recognized banks” and then be disbursed to the U.S. and Venezuelan populations at the “discretion” of the Trump administration, it says.

If I were in Russia’s position I would look for valuable U.S. assets, at sea or elsewhere, to seize and hold hostage.

I do not know enough of Venezuela’s alliances and capabilities, but I not do see any other way out for it but to fight the pirates by all possible means.

Please comment with suggestions of other serious means of response.

January 6, 2026
Why ‘Might Makes Right’ Is Dangerous For All of Us

Jaqcues Baud, who was recently sanctioned by the European Union, is lamenting on Dialog Works that –  The World Is Entering a Lawless Era (vid).

He is right of course, but late.

International law, developed over centuries, has been broken by the U.S. and other imperial forces ever since it was established.

But after World War II such breaches, even when obvious, were clad in propaganda which claimed that each of those was about the enforcement of higher values. Villains had to be fought, dictators opposed, evil communists had to be prevented from stealing from their people. The old and new neo-conservatives were masters in this. The blatant imperial attacks of Iraq and Afghanistan were sold as good men’s missions to bring democracy to the downtrodden and suppressed poor people in those countries. We had to liberate their women.

That propaganda that covered the brutal wars of conquest under the mantle of democracy promotion held up for a while. It served two purposes.

It allowed U.S. vassals to justify their co-operation with the imperialists. It also allowed a significant part of the ‘western’ populations to still feel good about their countries. When the wars went southward and losses increased they acknowledged that waging those wars were bad. But the consoling feeling was that at least “We Meant Well“, as one of those imperialists ransacking Iraq titled his memoir.

It worked for a while for some people. The Iraq war was protested against in Europe. Germany and France rejected the war and Congress renamed french fries into freedom fries.

But even their moral high ground has further deteriorated since.

Cont. reading: Why ‘Might Makes Right’ Is Dangerous For All of Us

January 5, 2026
Trump Abducted Maduro But Did Gain Nothing

In my last piece on Trump’s assault in Venezuela I pointed out that the plan was missing a piece :

One wonders what the next steps are the U.S. is planning to take. It does not have enough forces to invade Venezuela. Nor would a blockade of the country lead to a change of its government. An internal revolution is unlikely to succeed.

The U.S. gnomes managed to steal the underwear. Now comes step 2. Then profits. That sounds like a good plan.

But nobody seems to know so far what step 2 might entail.

It turns out that phase 2 of this underpants gnomes business plan is to do the same as before (archived):

When asked how the United States planned to govern Venezuela, Mr. Rubio did not lay out a plan for a U.S. occupation authority, like the one that the George W. Bush administration put in place in Baghdad during the Iraq War, but instead spoke of coercing a Venezuelan government run by allies of the jailed leader Nicolás Maduro to make policy changes.

U.S. forces will continue to prevent oil tankers on a U.S. sanctions list from entering and leaving the country until the government opens up the state-controlled oil industry to foreign investment — presumably giving priority to American companies — and makes other changes, he said on “Face the Nation” on CBS News.

“That remains in place, and that’s a tremendous amount of leverage that will continue to be in place until we see changes, not just to further the national interest of the United States, which is No. 1, but also that lead to a better future for the people of Venezuela,” he said.

Nothing changed. Venezuela continues to be governed by Chavistas who adhere to the Bolivarian revolution. It continues to be pressured to let U.S. companies explore its oil. The Chavistas, including Maduro, are willing to allow that but they have certain conditions. Those have not, and I believe will not, change.

The whole bombastic action was a virtual war:

Cont. reading: Trump Abducted Maduro But Did Gain Nothing

January 4, 2026
Palestine Open Thread 2026-006

News & views related to the war in Palestine …

Ukraine Open Thread 2026-005

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