News & views related to the war on Iran …
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October 1, 2026
Iran Open Thread 2026-216
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Comments
Despite the title, this week’s *Pepe Café* focuses—for more than half its duration—on events linked to the major wars in Eurasia. For this reason, I thought it appropriate to post it here and in the open thread as an introduction to some information I will be providing regarding the situation in Latin America and the Brazilian elections. Pepe Café – the week the whole world lives in danger. A sovereign Brazil versus a neocolony: the impact on the future of the Global South. https://youtu.be/2goglZUQ3yo?si=isaRTXRrjXQ4JZPM In Portuguese Posted by: Soviético | Oct 1 2026 22:57 utc | 101 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J091Zl9kXzg Posted by: snake | Oct 1 2026 23:13 utc | 102
Maybe. But also remeber that both Russia and China have publically had old decrepit satellites break up recently, China’s specifically with the assistance of a missile. There is a distinct air of performance that mirrors each nations way of diplomacy – China is nonchalantly upfront about it, Russia doesnt talk about it, and the USA is as ambiguous as possible to avoid any show of weakness. However, its still all publically reported. Posted by: eps | Oct 1 2026 23:17 utc | 103 There is a non zero chance that it was a demonstration of space theater capabilities. Posted by: Harmonic Resonance | Oct 1 2026 23:25 utc | 104 A sovereign Brazil versus a neocolony: the impact on the future of the Global South. Posted by: Woke American | Oct 1 2026 23:48 utc | 105 fuckanyahu is trying 9again) to trigger a conflict that he lost 3 times already: Posted by: David | Oct 1 2026 23:56 utc | 106 Re: “Maybe. But also remeber that both Russia and China have publically had old decrepit satellites break up recently, China’s specifically with the assistance of a missile. There is a distinct air of performance that mirrors each nations way of diplomacy – China is nonchalantly upfront about it, Russia doesnt talk about it, and the USA is as ambiguous as possible to avoid any show of weakness. “ Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 2 2026 0:06 utc | 107 I would like to apologize as it looks like I was wrong – I made a comment yesterday suggesting that no Youtube commercial pilot channel would touch this ‘story’. Posted by: Persona Non Grata | Oct 2 2026 0:08 utc | 108 To The Canadian Prime Minister…(&vid) Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 2 2026 0:23 utc | 109 More good news – Posted by: Persona Non Grata | Oct 2 2026 0:27 utc | 110 David 107 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 0:27 utc | 111 Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 2 2026 0:30 utc | 112 /in Vicky Pollard from “Little Britain” voice Posted by: titmouse | Oct 2 2026 0:33 utc | 113 Persona non grata 111 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 0:39 utc | 114 Trump’s newest: Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 0:41 utc | 115 Titmouse 114 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 0:45 utc | 116 George Wendell 116 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 0:50 utc | 117 Where is Peter AU1 when you need him? Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 0:53 utc | 118 I don’t buy the hijack plot was an attempt to convince Orange Turd to attack Iran. Posted by: Suresh | Oct 2 2026 0:59 utc | 119 False flags a plenty. Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 1:02 utc | 120 The ZOG is no longer an anti-Semitic conspiracy theory. Posted by: fuller&tang | Oct 2 2026 1:04 utc | 121 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 0:39 utc | 115 Posted by: Persona Non Grata | Oct 2 2026 1:05 utc | 122 Speaking of False Flags….. Posted by: Suresh | Oct 2 2026 1:06 utc | 123 michaelj72 113 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 1:09 utc | 124 “I don’t buy the hijack plot was an attempt to convince Orange Turd to attack Iran.” Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 1:10 utc | 125 Suresh 124 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 1:11 utc | 126 “Will the suspect be Iranian, “Houthi”, Iraqi or dual passport holder?” Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 1:12 utc | 127 “Is the irony of a Drunken Trump pathetically threatening to beat up his tormentors tomorrow, when he will be in prison, or Patagonia, something that should make us scared?” Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 1:17 utc | 128 Persona non grata 127 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 1:24 utc | 129 see the two photos at the first link Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 2 2026 1:36 utc | 130
Posted by: Asian Frog | Oct 2 2026 1:40 utc | 131
Posted by: Asian Frog | Oct 2 2026 1:47 utc | 132 I believe Trump will just kick the can down the road, pretending he is doing something against Iran (3 carriers in the area, few bombings) while waiting for the Democrats to be in charge of the mess. Posted by: Asian Frog | Oct 2 2026 1:52 utc | 133 RE: Posted by: titmouse | Oct 2 2026 0:33 utc | 114 Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 2 2026 1:52 utc | 134 Posted by: Giyane | Oct 2 2026 1:24 utc | 130 Posted by: Persona Non Grata | Oct 2 2026 2:05 utc | 135 Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 2 2026 1:52 utc | 135 Posted by: Persona Non Grata | Oct 2 2026 2:11 utc | 136
Posted by: malenkov | Oct 2 2026 2:14 utc | 137
Posted by: titmouse | Oct 2 2026 2:28 utc | 138 RE: Posted by: Persona Non Grata | Oct 2 2026 2:11 utc | 137 Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 2 2026 3:01 utc | 139 From Middle East Spectator …ignore Axios source, though destination is speculation most outlets are saying middle-east… officially just deployment e.g. https://news.usni.org/2026/09/29/makin-island-amphibious-ready-group-deploys-from-san-diego – “According to Axios, the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group and the 13th Marine Expediationary Unit have left San Diego Naval Base to the Middle East The ARG consists of an amphibious assault ship, the USS Makin Island, and two amphibious transport docks, the USS Anchorage and USS John P. Murtha. They will bring about a dozen F-35B Lightning II fighter jets and around 2200 U.S. Marines, as well as infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers” – “Hypothetically, if the U.S. wanted to carry out a naval landing in Iran, they would do it somewhere outside the Persian Gulf, most likely Chabahar or somewhere else in the flat open coasts of Sistan-Balochistan Province. That way, they don’t need to risk their ships entering the Persian Gulf under heavy anti-ship fire and incoming drones while trying to land their soldiers on a rugged coastline full of fortified positions and artillery emplacements. In Chabahar, they could bring their ships close enough to the shore with relative safety, under heavy air cover. U.S. jets, drones, and attack helicopters would suppress any anti-ship batteries heavily, and create sufficiently safe conditions for the initial ‘landing’. This might be coupled with increased Balochi terrorist activity across the Iranian rear lines, complicating logistics and the transfer of equipment / reinforcements towards the front. One also cannot rule out the possibility of deploying U.S. airborne forces to secure key sites before an amphibious landing is attempted. In Sistan-Balochistan, Iranian ballistic missile platforms, MLRS systems, and armored formations capable of confronting the invading force are also fairly limited in quantity. The initial phase of resistance would focus mainly on assymetric warfare; small squads of Iranian ATGM crews, FPV drone operators, IEDs, drones, and what little precision-guided artillery & air support (UAVs) could be scrambled. However, in my assessment, time will tell a different story. The longer the American force remains on the Iranian shores, the harsher their conditions will deteriorate. The Iranians will reorganize, MANPAD squads and remaininf SHORAD systems will likely form too much of a risk for U.S. aviation to provide effective long-term air cover, local civilians would resist occupation with guerilla tactics, and Iran would have moved sufficient amounts of MLRS, missile, and artillery systems to the area to make any sustained American presence a nightmare. I believe the U.S. is currently not willing to tolerate the sheer amounts of losses such an operation would entail. The public is already very opposed to the war, and this opposition would increase 10x. Dozens, if not hundreds, of American soldiers would die within the first month of such an operation, possibly thousands after several months. And what’s the strategic goal here? What purpose does it serve? The answer is: None. A limited amphibious landing would not bring any benefit to the United States, unless they go all-out. That would entail deploying tens of thousands of troops and securing the entire southern coastline towards the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to stop the disruption of shipping & bring Iran back to the table. Realistically? Impossible. The disasters such an operation would bring to the region are unimaginable, and senior U.S. military officials will *hopefully* realize it is a non-starter, before they ever embark on this campaign. Iran would treat such a scenario as total war. A divine war, magnitudes greater than the 8-year long Iran-Iraq war. All red lines would have been finally crossed. And in such a case, the IRGC Aerospace Force will take the entire region down with it. All economic, military and civilian infrastructure in the Gulf will cease to exist. Millions would be mobilized, and it will be a bloodbath on both sides” Posted by: Ornot | Oct 2 2026 3:10 utc | 140 LaLaLa….go on Bessent….screech… Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 2 2026 3:22 utc | 141 Thanks for all the replies. Posted by: Suresh | Oct 2 2026 3:23 utc | 142 From TPO Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 3:26 utc | 143 RE: Posted by: Ornot | Oct 2 2026 3:10 utc | 141 Posted by: Trubind1 | Oct 2 2026 3:34 utc | 144 From MES Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 3:48 utc | 145 An interesting set of postings at MES Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 3:54 utc | 146 From ZH
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 4:08 utc | 147 Norwegian | Oct 1 2026 15:23 utc | 16 Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Oct 2 2026 4:17 utc | 148 psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 3:54 utc | 147 Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Oct 2 2026 4:22 utc | 149 @ CrazyCanuck | Oct 2 2026 4:22 utc | 150 with the MES critique…thx Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 4:54 utc | 150 Fortunately, I would almost certainly be denied entry due to the mandatory disclosure of five years of social media history. Posted by: necromancer | Oct 2 2026 5:09 utc | 151 Seems to me many voting Americans comprehend Trump’s costly obsession with using the USA to destroy Iran has produced outcomes that show up at the gas pump, in food costs, in building costs, in interest cost, in home financing cost, in vehicle financing cost, and in household economics. Posted by: snake | Oct 2 2026 5:09 utc | 152 Posted by: Asian Frog | Oct 2 2026 1:47 utc | 133 Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 5:14 utc | 153 Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 5:14 utc | 154 … It is better in my country where you have to be elected to get any meaningful position in government representation in key ministerial positions and for the Senate. Posted by: snake | Oct 2 2026 5:45 utc | 154 see the 10:22 video at the first link Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 2 2026 6:18 utc | 155 American ‘democracy’ is an illusion Posted by: Menz | Oct 2 2026 6:20 utc | 156 It’s an Arc de Triomphe race but Pete Hegseth must be the worst and most dangerous as any American Defence Secretary. Posted by: Menz | Oct 2 2026 6:41 utc | 157 😉 I’d say let us birds have the franchise, but I think the pigeons would vote like they play chess. (Love ya, cousins, but yeah… not great chess players. Neither am I, mind you.) But yeah, that and Canadian geese would throw off the voter rolls with attempted dual citizenship — and probably vote angry out of sheer spite. Aggressive big shits, they are. Literally. Posted by: titmouse | Oct 2 2026 7:11 utc | 158
Posted by: Asian Frog | Oct 2 2026 7:26 utc | 159 Posted by: Menz | Oct 2 2026 6:41 utc | 157 Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Oct 2 2026 7:28 utc | 160 @Asian Frog | Oct 2 2026 1:47 utc | 132
In the US they call it “voter fraud” to deflect the responsibility. Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2026 7:55 utc | 161 But AfD and RN haven’t been in national power (yet).
Posted by: too scents | Oct 2 2026 7:58 utc | 162 .For a nation to be democratic those who are the governed must rule, and those who govern must adhere to that rule. BR:TG Posted by: Nor am I | Oct 2 2026 8:08 utc | 163
I thought that the “A* in AfD stands for “Alternative” rather than “Alliance” and if Vijay didn’t put in the minimum effort of research to figure that out then there’s a chance perhaps they guy is simply full of shit all round. Posted by: Tel | Oct 2 2026 8:18 utc | 164 @CrazyCanuck | Oct 2 2026 4:17 utc | 148
No, that only plays into the “religious fanatics” nonsense the murderers are projecting. The Iranian leadership are rational people with at least 5000 years behind them. Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2026 8:18 utc | 165 @ Tel | Oct 2 2026 8:18 utc | 164 Posted by: too scents | Oct 2 2026 8:33 utc | 166 see the numerous videos at the second link Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 2 2026 8:46 utc | 167 AnsarAllah targeted ….Aden Posted by: michaelj72 | Oct 2 2026 8:46 utc | 167 Posted by: necromancer | Oct 2 2026 9:12 utc | 168 Since Trump and cronies only care about market manipulation, which depends on broadcasting total deception, is it not time to address the media war? Posted by: necromancer | Oct 2 2026 9:18 utc | 169 Mary Kostakidis Posted by: Menz | Oct 2 2026 9:21 utc | 170 Yes – oppose Zionist expansion and this is what happens to candidates and commentators with guts……. Posted by: Arch Bungle | Oct 2 2026 9:27 utc | 171 Ukraine and World Affairs (includes Iran/ME): Weekly Update, 2nd October 2026: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs (includes Iran/ME): Weekly Update Posted by: The Busker | Oct 2 2026 9:28 utc | 172 Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 4:08 utc | 147 Posted by: Suresh | Oct 2 2026 9:41 utc | 173 Rachel Blevins on the Farcical Flydubai Fight: Posted by: ChatNPC | Oct 2 2026 9:52 utc | 174 @ChatNPC | Oct 2 2026 9:52 utc | 174 Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2026 10:48 utc | 175
Posted by: Tel | Oct 2 2026 11:10 utc | 176 Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 2 2026 3:54 utc | 146
Posted by: Sebgo | Oct 2 2026 11:12 utc | 177 @ Tel | Oct 2 2026 11:10 utc | 176 Posted by: malenkov | Oct 2 2026 11:27 utc | 178 Posted by: Menz | Oct 2 2026 6:41 utc | 157 Posted by: Savonarole | Oct 2 2026 11:31 utc | 179 To stick a bit more to the topic, we saw a lot of “unattributed” strike in Syria these past days. Some are saying the genocidal maniacs might attempt a dash at Damascus. Posted by: Savonarole | Oct 2 2026 11:47 utc | 180 too scents@162: Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 2 2026 12:19 utc | 181 Asian Frog @ 132 Posted by: oldhippie | Oct 2 2026 12:32 utc | 182 Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2026 10:48 utc | 175 Posted by: ChatNPC | Oct 2 2026 12:36 utc | 183 @necromancer Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Oct 2 2026 13:34 utc | 185 Omg. No one knows what happened on the UAE flight. A Zionist and a not Zionist flying the plane…rich. Posted by: Duck n cover | Oct 2 2026 13:37 utc | 186 @Duck n cover | Oct 2 2026 13:37 utc | 186
‘AI’ will kill billions confirmed! Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2026 13:42 utc | 187 Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 1 2026 15:47 utc | 21 Posted by: English Outsider | Oct 2 2026 13:42 utc | 188 DW: Elijah Magnier: ‘Dubai-Tel Aviv Hijack’ Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 2 2026 13:44 utc | 189 No one dare question Trump’s or Burnham’s intervention into the judicial procedures that supposedly follow accusations of crime, a la the “attack” on the “RAF” base. Neither have a clue what happened and its already Iran doing it. Posted by: Duck n cover | Oct 2 2026 13:49 utc | 190
She worked as a GS trainee straight out of school, left after 1 short year. Posted by: Amalek (ne Exile) | Oct 2 2026 14:21 utc | 191 Moral Resistance: Sulaiman Ahmed Posted by: John Gilberts | Oct 2 2026 14:28 utc | 192 @144 trubind “… all could be useful for a Lebanon push, or to take on or 2 of those islands of Ansar Allah. some say tactics change to tying up all of Irans allies In resistance groups, with ground forces…” Yemen seemed a more obvious destination to me… in Lebanon that is already claimed by the entity and a reaction ground force during say a civil war is too tidy probably… as am not sure what Iran anti-ship capability actually is, nor shore defences, cannot comment on what would happen if a landing was tried on Iran, nor one way or the other because we don’t know what either are capable of… I would expect several days of heavy air attacks based on opening SoH, possibly across all of Iran, then an attempt at securing positions, even if symbolic, to draw Iran into further conflict …would all likely be very drawn out, to ‘win’ would be a bonus but to degrade Iran and the region primarily, to reshape it all. Resistance to bombing and missile is limited (so far), but Iran does not seem to be relying on that ability, more on ground forces and depth of defence. All very wrong, what Iran is asking for resolution is a pittance by comparison, but the contest and animosities with regard to “Israel” and US are entrenched, are antagonised continuously by western actions … So am not very positive in any way about the current direction… even if Iran had to start sinking ships, US would cause a lot of damage before leaving… if it even left … and it or entity would still carry on attacks or economic blockade of some kind from a distance even then. Posted by: Ornot | Oct 2 2026 15:38 utc | 193 English Outsider | Oct 2 2026 13:42 utc | 188— “Babak Zanjani says that in 2016 Bank Kunlun in China was ready to transfer about €2 billion in Iranian oil revenues from a Malaysian bank to Iran, but Hassan Rouhani (the president at that time) blocked and rejected the transfers. This was happening while Iran was getting hit with painful economic sanctions and the reformist Rouhani administration was deliberately sabotaging relations with the east in order to restore relations with the west” https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/24020 Posted by: Ornot | Oct 2 2026 16:06 utc | 195 “The European Union “fully rejects” the threat made by the U.S. to ban diesel exports if Europe does not release more of its fuel stock…” Reuters 5hrs “Europe has agreed to release “a massive amount of their heavily stocked diesel oil,” following days of pressure to take action to cool surging…” CNN 3hrs “G7 leaders have agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel within four months as European nations scramble to prevent Donald Trump’s …” Independent 1hr “EU members discussed that any agreement on further diesel stock releases should include a US commitment to avoid a unilateral diesel export ban” bbc 50 mins In other words, they had to release reserves ‘not because of conflict with Iran or Russia but because Trump’ ? Posted by: Ornot | Oct 2 2026 16:15 utc | 196 Posted by: arby | Oct 2 2026 16:23 utc | 197 Posted by: Ornot | Oct 2 2026 16:15 utc | 196 Posted by: ChatNPC | Oct 2 2026 16:24 utc | 198 Posted by: arby | Oct 2 2026 16:23 utc | 197 Posted by: ChatNPC | Oct 2 2026 16:26 utc | 199 Grown ups need to intervene… Posted by: arby | Oct 2 2026 16:40 utc | 200 Leave a Comment |
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