Back in mid July Saudi Arabia reignited its war with Yemen’s Ansar Allah government and the Houthi movement:
Saudi-led forces bombed the international airport in Sanaa, Yemen, on Monday, reigniting the war with Yemen’s Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, which has been in a state of ceasefire that has held relatively well since 2022.
The attack was claimed by Yemen’s so-called “internationally recognized government,” which is based in Saudi Arabia and doesn’t have an air force of its own, meaning the strikes were almost certainly launched by Saudi warplanes.
In response, Ansar Allah’s military spokesman, Yahya Saree, vowed Yemen would hit back and said the era of “de-escalation” between the two sides was over. A spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition later claimed that Saudi “air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile threat launched by the terrorist Houthi militia towards the southern region.”
Yemen did retaliate. Missile’s were fired against Saudi airports and oil installations. Ansar Allah set out to block the Red Sea for Saudi related ship traffic. It fired missiles against several vessels which tried to pass through.
Saudi Arabia had circumvented the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by pumping oil from its eastern oil fields through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea coast. As the southern Bab el-Mandeb strait was blocked by Ansar Allah the only outlet left for the Saudis was the Suez Canal, which does not allow for the passage of fully loaded Very Large Crude Carriers. Still some 5 million barrels per day were exported through that route.
More Saudi bombing of Ansar Allah positions followed. Yesterday Ansar Allah hit back where it matters.
The map shows the positions held by Ansar Allah up to September 9. While the area constitutes only a third of Yemen it is home for about 80% of its population. The southern coast and the large desert in the east are ruled by the ‘international recognized government of Yemen’, which had been installed by Saudi Arabia, and held by various militia hired by Saudi Arabia and other militia hired by the United Arab Emirates (UAE):
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The blitz operation gave Ansar Allah full hands-on control of the main Red Sea entry without having to resort to the use of longer range missiles.
Though unconfirmed it is believed that Ansar Allah has additionally fired missiles into Saudi Arabia which destroyed at least parts of its East-West pipeline. This all together leaves no export route for Saudi oil.
The UAE supported forces in Yemen are also in trouble. While they hold the city of Taiz their western resupply route from Mocha harbor is closed. Ansar Allah forces are also near to the road between Taiz and Aden. Taiz may soon be cut of and encircled.
The Saudi government is in a twist. Its proxy forces in Yemen have been routed and are in conflict, not only with Ansar Allah, but also with the ‘allied’ militia paid by the UAE. They have also lost most of their trucks and equipment.
A few weeks ago the Saudis had announced a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan. But that agreement is only includes the defense of Saudi Arabian territory, not offensive Saudi measures against its southern neighbors in Yemen. The Pakistanis have thus declared that they see no reason to intervene in the conflict.
Muhammad bin Salman, the current ruler of Saudi Arabia has twice asked the U.S. for help to bomb Ansar Allah in Yemen. The White House, burned by earlier losses in fights against Ansar Allah, has rejected any new active participation in that war. It has instead sent an intelligence unit to help the Saudis find targets. But finding targets is not what matters.
Bombing Ansar Allah has been tried for years with little results. The Saudis do not have the manpower for an invasion. They will have to find a political solution for the conflict with their neighbor.
There are signs that yesterday’s surprise attack by Ansar Allah will not be further expanded:
Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a Houthi political official, said in an interview that the group’s goal was to “fully restore Yemen’s sovereignty and independence” and to confront “the Saudi enemy,” rather than expand its territory.
“Other factions” in southern Yemen can “retain the areas under their control” until a Yemeni political process is held, Mr. al-Bukhaiti added.
Ansar Allah is allied with Iran. With Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and Ansar Allah in now full control of the Bab el-Mandab oil export from the region has become extremely difficult.
The price of crude oil is above $100 per barrel. Ten year treasuries are near 5%. Inflation in the U.S. is stubborn at an official 3.4% while the price of diesel has breached the $6 per gallon mark.
All these numbers, and the upheaval in Yemen, are a consequence of Trump’s decision to launch a war against Iran.