Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 27, 2026
Iran Open Thread 2026-213

News & views related to the war on Iran …

Comments

Breaking: Major ‘counter-terrorist’ investigation at RAF Fairford which is used by US forces in attacks on Iran. Arrests made in connection with a ‘major incident’ involving ‘explosives’.
 
False flag provocation or people’s anti-imperialist resistance operation?
 
Power to the people.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 12:39 utc | 1

‘counter-terrorist’ investigation at RAF Fairford
 
—
 
Color me skeptical.  
 

Posted by: too scents | Sep 27 2026 12:56 utc | 2

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 12:39 utc | 1
 
All seems a bit conveniently staged to me. Suspect the unohus in the first take.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 12:57 utc | 3

Nothing to add. 
 

@Narjes_Rahmati
Sep 25
“War crime is their fun. Genocide is their most beloved practice… Deception, lying and victim playing are the core elements of their strategy.”
 
Iranian diplomat Naser Asadi formally replied to Netanyahu’s speech today at the UN.
 
Sep 25, 2026 · 9:24 AM UTC
 
@Bratt_world
Sep 26
I could never have imagined 7 months ago that Iran would rise to such stardom
 
This is wild 🤣 people are gathering to hear what the foreign minister has to say, over the president of the United States
 
The geopolitical shift happening in real time is fascinating.
 
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:02 AM UTC
 

Posted by: DunGroanin | Sep 27 2026 13:36 utc | 4

Ukraine and World Affairs (includes Iran/ME): Weekly Update, 25th September, 2026: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs (includes Iran/ME)

Posted by: The Busker | Sep 27 2026 13:37 utc | 5

The United Nations General Assembly – New York – The Speakers

Posted by: The Busker | Sep 27 2026 13:40 utc | 6

In case this hasn’t already been posted, here are two videos that show the true value that Khamenei brought to Iran and its struggle. He saw all along what would only become apparent to many Iranians as a result of his own martyrdom, the perfidy of the US. Over the years he prepared for the coming battle that we have now seen break out over the field, and which continues.
 
Sharmine Narwani at TheCradle talks with Ali Alizadeh, the originator of a short documentary on Ali Khamenei’s life, and the political struggles within Iran, most notably the tension between those who wanted to accord with the west, and those who didn’t trust the west. This is a great insight into what an open democracy Iran has actually been, while striving at the same time to be true to its revolution:
 
The Ghost Commander: The Invisible Hand in the US-Iran War
 
The documentary itself is a tight storyline of Khamenei’s career, culminating in the times we see today. One can truly understand how Iran’s destiny hung by a thread, in some ways, and how one man steered the course finally to success, how much this is Khamenei’s triumph:
 
Khamenei’s Last Move
 
I highly recommend them both for a better understanding of Iran and its revolutionary struggle against the powers that still threaten all of the world.

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 27 2026 13:47 utc | 7

DW: Pravin Sawhney: ‘Hormuz Under Attack’
 
https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/streams
 
“BREAKING: Iran launches missiles and drones in Strait of Hormuz after Trump rejection.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 13:52 utc | 8

I should have added, thanks to Amarynth and her crew at sovereignista.com for posting the Cradle interview.

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 27 2026 13:52 utc | 9

🔴 Iran’s IRGC Navy announced that it captured a US Remus 600 unmanned underwater vehicle operating in the Strait of Hormuz for espionage, following a coordinated intelligence and electronic warfare operation. 

https://t.me/presstv/208528
 
 

Footage of a US Remus 600 unmanned underwater vehicle captured by Iran’s IRGC Navy in the Strait of Hormuz.

https://t.me/presstv/208529
 
 

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 27 2026 14:04 utc | 10

Re: Oui | Sep 27 2026 8:11 utc | 187
 
Allied Power Operations
 
Complicity in war on Ukraine and logistics support for criminal bombing runs on the Islamic Republic of Iran invites blowback from Russia and Iran respectively.
 
Primary targets UK RAF bases, Cyprus, German NATO Command center in Ramstein and Italy NATO airbase @Aviano.
 
At Chicago, former Dutch PM Rutte proud of European support for President Trump’s “Op Epic Fury”
 

“NATO, its Allies, is one big platform of power projection,” Rutte stated, revealing that 5,000 sorties had been launched from European bases in support of the war between February 28 and mid-April alone.

Posted by: Oui | Sep 27 2026 14:15 utc | 11

🇬🇧 UK airbases raised to MAXIMUM threat levels
 
RAF Fairford has been thrust onto Delta alert, the highest possible threat level, reserved only when an attack is imminent.
 
RAF Lakenheath has been raised to Charlie alert, the second highest.

Posted by: Oui | Sep 27 2026 14:16 utc | 12

Posted by: Oui | Sep 27 2026 14:16 utc | 12
 
Security theatre now in full swing. OMG, be afraid…
Police were banging on the door’: villagers near RAF Fairford describe evacuation
 

But in recent weeks, people have noticed dramatically increased security measures, with the gates of the base newly barricaded.
 
“In the prior few weeks they have put heavy, very heavy vehicles across all gates,” one person said.
She described them as “very big tractors and things like that” parked behind gates into the base, adding: “So obviously they’re taking security seriously.”
The resident said “great big concrete walls” had also been placed behind some gates, including on Dunfield Loop and Whelford Road.

 
LOL – anti-drone defences…
 
IIRC our dear friend and sometime poster Mark2 lives nearby, maybe he will give us an update if he hasn’t been locked down/detained/’evacuated’.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 14:39 utc | 13

Bad form to pimp your blog on someone else’s.

Posted by: Jeremy | Sep 27 2026 14:59 utc | 14

From TPO
 
Fars News Agency, citing sources, reported that seven ships were targeted last night and 12 ships described as violating ships were targeted the previous night.
 
 
Is Trump going to wait until after the midterms or be forced to respond sooner and risk the escalation that Iran is promising?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 15:09 utc | 15

Thai authorities probe Chabad-Lubavitch centers over Israeli land-grab network
 
 
(excerpt).,..,,
Governors were told to carry out on-site checks and work with relevant agencies to confirm the legality of the land holdings, building permits, and funding behind the centers.
 
 
Early inspections have already uncovered “irregularities in the construction permit process, such as rooftop extensions and unauthorized structures,” Suwannachawi said.
 
 
In Phuket, authorities confiscated goods from a Chabad house while checking whether they had been imported and sold without authorization.
 
The minister also questioned how projects with no income-generating purpose were bankrolled with investments running into tens of millions of baht.
 
Questions over the movement’s money trail are not confined to Thailand. A 2020 FBI memo, released on 30 January among the Epstein files…….
 
The FBI memo names Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as a Chabad supporter.
 
 
The FBI memo further recommends investigating the Kushner family’s charities for money laundering, describing it as a common Chabad practice.
 
Thailand’s crackdown on the Chabad houses comes as anger boils over at the conduct of Israeli tourists, many of them discharged soldiers. Some took part in Israel’s genocide in Gaza, enforced apartheid in the occupied West Bank, or fought in Israel’s wars on Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. 
 
Residents cite displays of arrogance, contempt for local customs, dodged restaurant bills, and damaged rental properties, grievances that have fueled campaigns to ban the visitors from the country.
 
 
That frustration spilled onto the streets as hundreds rallied outside the Israeli embassy in Bangkok under the banner “Thailand is not for sale.” They condemned alleged land purchases and Israel’s genocide in Gaza, and demanded that foreigners respect Thai law and culture.……
 
https://thecradle.co/articles/thai-authorities-probe-chabad-lubavitch-centers-over-israeli-land-grab-network

Posted by: Amalek (ne Exile) | Sep 27 2026 15:10 utc | 16

Comments …
 

US President Donald Trump tells reporters that the men arrested near RAF Fairford on Sunday were “looking to do big damage”.
 
“We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort, and working with the British worked out great,” he says.

Posted by: Oui | Sep 27 2026 15:43 utc | 17

Journalist Suhaib Al-Masalmeh

-“The occupation closes the Mughrabi Gate in Jerusalem after 1,143 settlers stormed Al-Aqsa Mosque”

Daily bombings continue on Gaza and Lebanon , restrictions and displacement in west bank.

Gaza , graphic content

https://t.me/TPOnow/66493

-“The U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt is preparing to move to the Middle East” TPO

-“President Trump on the RAF Fairford incident:
The arrest in the UK was fantastic. Working with Britain, it was an amazing job.

We had them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage to our fort, and working with the British worked out great.

We had them under view for a long time, and we got them” Tabz

– “When a local civilian attempted to report three suspicious vans to RAF Fairford airbase police, ‘they didn’t answer the phone’

So the case was referred to the normal police instead” MES

One of several ships targeted last night:

https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/23987

– “Ansar Allah (Houthis) media said the Yemeni Air Force targeted a vegetable market rather than military camps, gatherings, and combat vehicles, alleging that 7 people were killed and 40 wounded; preliminary information put the number of dead and wounded at the reception camp alone at more than 100, with the toll expected to rise” TPO

Initially reported as a military gathering here

https://t.me/TPOnow/66510

In Saudi alerts, weather warnings, closing of classes, and missile strikes continue.

Unexplained phenomenon in Saudi

https://t.me/TPOnow/66513

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 15:55 utc | 18

That frustration spilled onto the streets as hundreds rallied outside the Israeli embassy in Bangkok under the banner “Thailand is not for sale.” They condemned alleged land purchases and Israel’s genocide in Gaza, and demanded that foreigners respect Thai law and culture.……
 
https://thecradle.co/articles/thai-authorities-probe-chabad-lubavitch-centers-over-israeli-land-grab-network
 
Posted by: Amalek (ne Exile) | Sep 27 2026 15:10 utc | 16
Disgusting.  To imagine those rapey, baby killing Israeli psychopaths running around loose in Thailand and assaulting those wonderful people makes me sick.  
Death to the IDF.  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 27 2026 16:11 utc | 19

https://youtu.be/dvaq0Ymh0Lc?list=LL&t=844
 
Diesen:has it gone too far now?
 
Krainer: No, I think it’s gone too far. But it

 

definitely the the United States has much better maneuvering uh space than other nations. The United States can use

14:13

its uh military muscle to force nations into the dollar system. Uh Venezuela was

14:22

perhaps an extreme example where the president was basically abducted and the

14:28

other people were were told you’ll do as we say or else. Uh and so

14:34

I don’t think the the Venezuelan oil itself in reality will easily over you

14:42

know reverse those pressures because my understanding is that Venezuela’s oil

14:48

industry will require very very heavy investments before uh that oil will

14:56

have a a very substantial impact on the American economy. But what the Americans

15:02

can do is use Venezuelan oil as collateral to issue a lot of uh a lot of

15:10

uh loans which then become assets on the balance sheet of American banks. So

15:17

let’s say if the estimate that it will take $100 billion dollars

15:22

uh to uh bring Venezuelan uh oil

15:28

industry to its potential. Well, uh, you know, Wall Street banks can issue, uh,

15:35

$100 billion worth of loans to Venezuela, and then that 100 billion

15:42

becomes brand new assets on the books of the of the uh, Wall Street banks.

15:47

And uh, if the oil industry comes back to life, then the the cash flows that

15:53

result from the oil sales in Venezuela will all uh, flow towards the Wall

15:59

Street banks. So in that sense that that’s that’s that maneuvering space

16:04

that the American banks have thanks to the you know uh American superpower

16:09

status. Then we’ve seen also that the Americans were able to bring Venezuelan gold from London to New York. That too

16:17

uh represents collateral against which V you know Venezuelans were not allowed to

16:23

sell their oil and obtain uh dollars. But they can use that oil as

16:29

a as collateral to raise loans to raise credit. again, you know, uh the the gold

16:38

will remain in the United States and the loans will become

16:44

assets on the books of Wall Street banks. So, you know, the United States can probably

16:50

do this also with Greenland. I think that the Canadian uh Canadian resources have largely been

16:58

already taken as um you know the 75 billion barrels of Canadian oils I think

17:03

has it’s all already uh been used as collateral for Wall Street

17:11

banks but you know definitely the United States has that power to coersse and

17:17

force other nation into its system and in that ca in that sense it has a much

17:23

much better maneuvering space. The British cannot do the same thing. The Europeans cannot do the same thing. So I

17:30

think that uh European financial system, British financial system, Japanese financial system are all looking uh at

17:38

the future that will probably resemble uh the the collapse of the Vhimmer

17:44

Republic in the 19 in the early 1920s of last century, 100 104 years ago about.

17:53

Well, um well, it looks like the wider picture here though is um that well the

18:00

whole economic model is now being run into the ground or it’s hitting a wall. It can be possibly extended but uh but

18:08

we do see that it’s this whole financialization of the economy um yeah

18:13

it’s not working anymore especially as the US also loses its dominance on the global scene. This seems to be a bit of

18:20

a everything turned on its head from what was expected after the cold war. As you remember then we had this uh thesis

18:27

put forth by Fukuyama that we were at the end of history and it essentially had two components. One was the whole

18:33

world would have to essentially remodel itself after the United States adopt its economic model and the US leadership. Uh

18:41

that was the only way countries could grow and become powerful. So uh but now

18:48

um we we we see essentially alternatives that is uh the Chinese are pushing

18:54

forward forward a new economic model. I think dismissing it as communism kind of

19:00

I think it looks more like the industrial capitalism that the Americans had in the 19th century. uh but uh I I

19:07

was wondering you know we we do see with the failure of one system you will have unavoidably some uh discussions and uh I

19:16

guess competing models for how to run economies. Uh and again it’s hard not to

19:22

take the Chinese model serious these days given the immense success it had. I mean we’ve never seen this in the human

19:28

history how fast this amount this many people hundreds of millions of people

19:33

were taken from poverty to now the being the leading economy in the world at least in purchasing power parity. I was

19:40

wondering how do you see this now the the the Chinese economic model rising

19:46

possibly r well discrediting the US model especially now that it’s running into

19:52

this uh financial problems. Well, that’s a that’s a great question,

19:57

Glenn. And this is one of the one of the great misconceptions that practically took me my lifetime to figure out

20:04

because you know if you go to university and you study economics then you basically are always you’re the

20:12

curriculum is always centered on the you know the classics Adam Smith and David

20:18

Ricardo 

Posted by: frito | Sep 27 2026 16:24 utc | 20

Thanks, Frito, for that Krainer excerpt.  He is a heckuva analyst, and always brings new insight into events.
 
The US is remarkably able to push the rest of the world around.  I note that no one walked out on Trump’s demonic speech at the UN.  While dozens of diplomats felt perfectly comfortable walking out on Netanyahu, no one dared to upset the US.
And no world leader (that has been reported) managed to denounce Trump’s lies and threats of genocide of an entire country.
 
That is some power.   This may not end well.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Sep 27 2026 16:50 utc | 21

@Norwegian | Sep 27 2026 14:04 utc | 10:
 
I’d be very careful of those. They could be boobytrapped and at a later time, like those Israel pagers, detonated.

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Sep 27 2026 16:51 utc | 22

wagelaborer@21:
 
Cuba walked out on Trump, and denounced him afterwards.  But your points are well taken and the kowtowing to the American Psycho is both disgusting and revealing.  America Inc. is humanity’s enemy #1 and should be treated as such. 

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 17:06 utc | 23

” ‘Iran’s IRGC Navy announced that it captured a US Remus 600…’
 
…
 
‘Footage of a US Remus 600…  ~ Norwegian | Sep 27 2026 14:04 utc | 10

Romulus Remus
by Orpheus at Metempsychosis.com
____
 
“Romulus and Remus are legendary twin brothers in Roman mythology who are credited with the founding of Rome in 753 BC. According to the myth, they were the sons of the god Mars and the Vestal Virgin Rhea Silvia.Abandoned as infants by King Amulius, the twins were rescued by a she-wolf (lupa) and raised by the shepherd Faustulus and his wife Acca Larentia.
 
As adults, the brothers overthrew Amulius and restored their grandfather Numitor to the throne, but a dispute over where to build their new city led to tragedy.Romulus favored the Palatine Hill, while Remus preferred the Aventine Hill; after consulting augury, Romulus claimed victory when he saw more vultures.When Remus mocked and leaped over Romulus’s newly built walls, Romulus killed him, becoming the sole founder and first king of Rome, which he named after himself.
 
Modern historians generally treat the twins as legendary figures rather than historical individuals, as there is no contemporary evidence to confirm their existence.However, archaeological findings confirm that the area of Rome was developing significantly during the early Iron Age, aligning with the timeline of the myth. The story serves as a foundational narrative for Roman identity, highlighting themes of divine lineage, rivalry, and the violent origins of the city’s power.”
~ Brave search, consolidated results quote
____
 
What is a bond market collapse and what is its significance? Please explain as though I am 12 years old.
 
“A bond market collapse is a sudden, dramatic drop in the prices of bonds, which are essentially loans people or institutions give to governments or companies.Think of it like a popular trading card that used to be worth $100 but is now worth only $50 because everyone is trying to sell it at the same time. This happens because bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions: when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to fight inflation, new bonds pay higher returns, making older, lower-paying bonds less valuable, so investors dump them, causing their prices to crash.
The significance of this crash is that it acts as a warning light for the entire economy. Since bonds are considered a safe place for money, a collapse shakes the confidence of banks and investors, often causing them to pull money out of the stock market as well. This can lead to a “double whammy” where both stocks and bonds lose value at the same time, destroying the traditional strategy of using bonds to protect investment portfolios.
For everyday people, a bond market collapse is significant because it drives up borrowing costs for everyone. When bond yields (the effective interest rate) spike, the cost of mortgages, car loans, and credit cards also goes up, making it much harder for families to buy homes or for businesses to expand. In extreme cases, if the crash is severe enough, it can threaten the stability of banks that hold these devalued bonds, potentially leading to bank failures and a broader economic recession.”
~ Brave search AI
____
 
“metempsychosis
noun
me·​tem·​psy·​cho·​sis mə-ˌtem(p)-si-ˈkō-səs ˌme-təm-ˌsī-
 
: the passing of the soul at death into another body either human or animal”
 
~ Merriam Webster dictionary

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Sep 27 2026 17:12 utc | 24

 
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/37095#
Middle East Spectator — MES 
 
—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Iran has seized another advanced American AUV (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle), the REMUS 600, that was conducting surveillance in the Strait of Hormuz 
 
Iranian engineers are currently working to recover its data and begin reverse engineering efforts.
 
——————————
 
https://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/09/27/777131/Yemen-Saudi-attacks-market-Taiz
Saudi attacks on market in Yemen’s Ta’iz leave 50 killed, injured 
 
Some 50 people have been killed or injured in Saudi air strikes on a marketplace in southwest Yemen. 
 
The spokesman of Yemen’s military said on Sunday that Saudi fighter jets had carried out two attacks on the main market in the city of Ta’iz around noon local time. 
 
Yahya Saree said that the same fighter jet had carried out four other attacks on the province of Jawf in northern Yemen. 
 
Saree said the attack on the Mawiyah marketplace in Ta’iz, which killed civilians, would carry huge costs for Saudi Arabia…….. 
 
….Mohammad Abdul Salam said on his X account that the attack is a clear sign that Saudi Arabia is determined to ruin the civilian infrastructure in Yemen…..

Posted by: michaelj72 | Sep 27 2026 17:16 utc | 25

Footage of a US Remus 600…  ~ Norwegian | Sep 27 2026 14:04 utc | 10
 
—
 
That’s the 2nd confirmed tech-bro mini-sub the Iranian’s have captured.  Is their coastal heritage betraying their maritime skill?
 
Reminds me of Musk’s pedo mini-sub incident, when Elon first exposed his nature.
 

Posted by: too scents | Sep 27 2026 17:25 utc | 26

Bad form to pimp your blog on someone else’s.
Posted by: Jeremy | Sep 27 2026 14:59 utc | 14
 
Tell that to Karlof1 and see what else happens….

Posted by: Harmonic Resonance | Sep 27 2026 17:29 utc | 27

Last word on the Fairford Incident, before the narratives get turbo charged into whatever the warmongers want:
 
From the few details we have either the detainees were rank amateurs or paid patsies*, who may or may not have had some dangerous explosives…
 
*my bet, like the Ukrainian rent boys caught arsoning Keith Starmer’s back door.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 17:29 utc | 28

Mahmood OD: ‘Iran Bombs 19 Vessels’
 
https://www.youtube.com/@Mahmood_OD/videos
 
“Major Iranian attacks after Trump rejects ceasefire proposal.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 17:40 utc | 29

– “One of the Iraqi tribal sheikhs in Basra says he gives the Iraqi government a 48 hours ultimatum to reverse its decision to halt flights to/from Iran.

“If the government does not reverse its decision, we will enter Basra airport and prevent all flights.” ” Fotros

– “Significant U.S. Air Force heavy aircraft activity in Erbil Governorate, Iraqi Kurdistan. Likely U.S. forces withdrawal ongoing; the September 30 withdrawal deadline is three days away” Tabz

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 17:45 utc | 30

Posted by: frito | Sep 27 2026 16:24 utc | 20
Thanks for the helpful outline.

Posted by: Pacific Observer | Sep 27 2026 17:50 utc | 31

Thanks for that update Ornot…
 
 
R2R: Trump Chooses War
 
https://www.youtube.com/@reason2resist/videos
 
“US rejects 7 conditions: oil crisis set to worsen.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 17:51 utc | 32

That frustration spilled onto the streets as hundreds rallied outside the Israeli embassy in Bangkok under the banner “Thailand is not for sale.” They condemned alleged land purchases and Israel’s genocide in Gaza, and demanded that foreigners respect Thai law and culture.…… 
Posted by: Amalek (ne Exile) | Sep 27 2026 15:10 utc | 16
 
Is the genocide something Thailand really cares about? All the Israeli funding and bombs used to destroy Gaza are from the US. Thailand is a major US partner.
 
They also recently repaired the US carrier that came back from bombing Iran and made available their prostitutes to service the thousands of bored US sailors that were on it.
 
Hard to give respect to the sex capital of SE Asia that whores itself so hard. The Israelis are treating these boot lickers just as they like to be treated.
 

Posted by: Reza | Sep 27 2026 17:58 utc | 33

Fairfield….seems like an amateurish event was “allowed” to happen to make a point.
 
Encouraged??? Someone started an idea to prove a point when Iran said UK was in the blame game?

Posted by: Jo | Sep 27 2026 18:07 utc | 34

The Israelis are treating these boot lickers just as they like to be treated.
 
 
Posted by: Reza | Sep 27 2026 17:58 utc | 33
Do the wonderful Thai people control their government or is it controlled by Thai bourgeois?  Please tell me by some miracle, does the Thai government reflect the actual will of the people (working class) in the age of Zio Imperialism?  
Seriously, this monolithic nationalist thinking is just stupid and disqualifying.  When I hear it, I know the speaker is a totally unserious student of the world or a conscious deceiver of the working man.  
And by that reactionary logic, you conclude that those Thai are all just boot lickers who deserve it, eh?  
On behalf of my working Thai brothers and sisters: fuck yourself, Zio gimp!  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 27 2026 18:08 utc | 35

Harmonic Resonance | Sep 27 2026 17:29 utc | 27—
 
I’ve been alerting Barflies to my writings for 6 years without one complaint. Indeed, several thousand people routed from MoA to subscribe to my substack, while beforehand many suggested I establish that site. In other words, I enjoy the vast support of those who comment and much more by those who lurk. And those are the facts.    

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 27 2026 18:21 utc | 36

 
I decided to give an update on the current Iranian situation and a little side-line into the Russia-Ukraine situation (mostly because the US is increasingly linking the two regional  crises into a single world crisis).  
 
We are about 37 days out from the US mid-term election and Trump has made it abundantly clear he plans to escalate the war with Iran as soon as the elections are over and before the new house and senate seats are taken over in January.  In the prior week ago Trump has 1) Unequivocally rejected the Iranian 9 point peace plan that Iran formally presented to the Americans last week during the UN forum.  The peace plan itself was simply a return to the previous memorandum of Understanding that the US previously signed on June 17/26 – so this was effectively a graceful chance for the US to retreat from the current crisis, but Trump killed it by declaring ” that deal would not be acceptable”, so Trump has effectively blocked the US from returning to a peaceful resolution to the conflict.  2) during Trump’s speech at the UN, he once again threatened to “annihilate the Islamic Republic.”, this is the 6th or 7th time Trump has publicly threatened to annihilate/destroy/kill/devastate/unleash hell on the Republic of Iran in the prior 30 days and it has gotten to the point that that one could legitimately argue these repeated threats constitute a call to commit genocide against the people of Iran.  Something that former New Jersey Superior Court judge Andrew Napolitano has publicly and repeatedly mentioned during interviews.  3) The Wall Street Journal has reported that Trump has privately told Whitehouse staffers that he will start the attack after the elections. 4) The U.S. Department of Defense has officially ordered the activation of the Empire State VII, one of the Maritime Administration’s new National Security Multi-Mission Vessels (NSMV). Usually serving as a training ship for SUNY Maritime College, this vessel is now heading on a 170-day mission to the strategic base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, it will take roughly 28 days to arrive at  Diego Garcia (so around the 1st week of November).  Capable of housing 1000 sailors, the Empire State VII will probably be used in a logistical role to house sailors rotated off of the various Destroyers in comparative luxury (If given the choice I’d rather be on a naval cadet training ship than an actual warship).  There are only 5 of these NSMV ships in the US and there are rumors that a 2nd ship of this class (The State of Maine) will be activated in the next 2 weeks and sent to Diego Garcia as well.  Each of these ships play a vital role in training sailors so suddenly losing one or two of these ships for a 6 month commitment will throw US naval training into chaos.  As I mentioned in my prior emails the US disastrously failed to pre-position resources for the conflict with Iran when it started and now it appears that the US is moving to build up the only naval logistical hub it has left to support operations against Iran.  I also mentioned that Diego Garcia while far, is still within range of the longest range Iranian missiles.   The US Department of War has also quietly updated the “official list” of wounded American increasing it by 37 soldiers AND sailors, strongly supporting earlier rumors that several US ships were in fact hit and damaged by Iranian drones and missiles in the initial stages of the conflict.  Currently the official number of wounded stands at 861 (while unofficial numbers place it at more than 5,000).  5) lastly, on Thursday the US senate once again voted against (50 vs 49) a resolution calling on Trump to end the conflict with Iran.  Taken together, all of these actions reaffirm that the US political and military class has consolidated in favor of reigniting the conflict.  I strongly suspect that in doing this the US political class (Democrat and Republican) are hoping to smash Iran with another quick large scale bombing campaign, this time targeting critical civilian infrastructure (sewage, electricity, gas storage, water) to try and force a collapse of the Iranian state, within 6-8 weeks.  Unfortunately for the Americans I don’t believe the Iranian state will collapse in such a brief timespan and more likely the underground Iranian missile cities will continue to operate unimpeded (Remember originally the US media was claiming that the US destroyed 90% of Iranian missile launches, then 67%, then less than 50%, then 13% and most recently they are reporting that the number of Iranian missile launchers are higher now than at the start of the conflict, they are also reporting that Iran has more missiles now than it had at the start of the conflict, 20,000+ all because of Chinese and Russian support).   Once the US resumes the war, the fighting will last until the end of the Trump presidency, at which point the new US government might be able to walk away from the conflict by abandoning the Middle East.  There will not be a formal agreement to end the conflict the US will simply fall back to its’ remaining allies, Israel and Turkey to lick its’ wounds and return in 2-3yrs.  A permanent end to the conflict can ONLY happen if China and Russia intervene with security guarantees for Iran and it is far too early in the crisis to expect that.  
 
A world-wide energy/fuel/oil crisis is now baked in the cake as it were.  Ireland and France are both reporting fuel shortages of diesel and our entire Western economy depends on diesel to operate.  Trucks, tractors, trains, airplanes, farm equipment, all run on diesel or diesel derivatives to operate.  Energy insiders now expect world-wide fuel supplies to be disrupted until the end of 2027.  For this reason, food and transportation costs are expected to rise throughout all of 2027 and most (perhaps all) of 2028 as well.  Trump’s recent suggestion that he will impose a diesel export ban for the US (US diesel is roughly 10% of all diesel used by the EU) has further thrown the world energy markets into chaos making It increasingly likely that parts of the EU will need to introduce gas rationing in early 2027.  As of Sept 1/26 Germany’s fuel reserves are at 57% capitacity compared with 77% capitacity in Sept 1/25.  Germany will be hard-pressed to avoid heating restrictions if the winter of 26/27 is colder than last year and restrictions will be impossible to avoid if the US imposes a fuel export ban.
 
Tying this subject to Russia and China.  During the prior month Trump issues a rare public rebuke to Ukraine, blaming Ukraine attacks on Russian energy infrastructure (and not Trump’s own war on Iran) as the cause of the diesel crisis shaking Europe.  Trump’s rebuke was particularly odd in that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are only possible because the US is providing GPS coordinates for the drones to use in targeting.  If Trump, really wanted to stop these strikes he could simply order the CIA and the Pentagon to block out the GPS coordinates of Russian fuel sites.  Obviously, Trump is not doing that so it must be assumed that the US deliberately wants to provoke an energy crisis in Europe and the international markets, presumably to force European companies to move production out of Europe and into the US. 
 
If we adopted a ruthless view of international relationships from the US oligarchy’s viewpoint, I believe we can get an idea of what the US political and economic elite are trying to do.   Under the US dollar system the US forced all nations to trade in the US dollar in order to power their economies.  However as fuel and energy production expanded outside of the Middle East into new regions uncontrolled by the US.  Simultaneously with this, the US oligarchy adopted financialization and rent seeking behaviour over industrial production, destroying US competitiveness on international markets.  The US dollar system and US control of financial systems and their regulation (copyright, insurance, banking, etc…) allowed the US to conceal the declining purchasing power of the US economy on international market, but also led to wealth consolidation into an ever smaller group of multibillionaires and now we have Elon Musk, the world’s first Trillionaire (as measure in US dollars).  Actual real material wealth production in the US can not keep pace with the rapid growth of easy credit, financialization, stock value manipulation, rent-seeking and wide-scale, cheap energy availability.   Since the existing physical wealth of the US is already consolidated into a small group of multibillionaires, the US now attempting a “re-capitalization” of the US domestic economy by destroying the international market system it helped build over the prior 40 years (i.e. US workers will be distracted from calling for internal US economic reform with manufacturing jobs, while the new US Trillionaire class becomes normalized within the US).  The US is attempting to force foreign wealth producers to relocate to the US by destroying alternative energy sources outside of US control, destroying international trade routes by imposing unilateral blockades, imposing sectoral and trade sanctions on whole countries blocking them from the international economic system and destabilizing all forms of material wealth production that are not based in the US.  In effect, the US is trying to recreate the international situation in the aftermath of World War 2, with all of Europe, the Middle East and Asia economically and politically destabilized, forced to rely on US material wealth production for their daily needs for survival. 
 
Needless to say, this is an insanely dangerous thing to attempt, as many of these countries will fight back against this sort of behaviour and the US is effectively paying chicken with states like Russia, China and Iran, betting that they won’t “want to be responsible for starting World War 3” by defending themselves from US aggression and that they will allow themselves to be economically ruined instead.  What makes this utter madness is that these countries will fight back conventionally and will be able to defeated the US in conventional terms.  The US domestic manufacturing base is already destroyed, China alone makes more steel, makes more chemicals, makes more medicine, makes more rare earths, makes more drones, makes more missiles, makes more ships, makes more trains, makes more of everything.  Even little Iran is prepared to fight, with a population of only 90 million has issued mobilization orders for a one-million strong army which will be ready in mid-2027, this is more than enough troops to maintain order in Iran and even invade both Kuwait and Iraqi Kurdistan if necessary.  The US media doesn’t report it, but for the past 200 days in Tehran there have been nightly protests in the thousands demanding Iran declare war on the US and close the Straits of Hormuz completely.  Trump has recently bragged that shipping is back to normal, but it remains at roughly 10% of prewar levels and every ship that passes the straights, even if they use the US path, continues to pay the Iranians for the privilege and more than a dozen ships that attempted to sneak pass the straights without paying have been damaged or sunk in the past month alone. 
 
The US is not a rational actor, instead it is a drunk at a roulette table, doubling down on every spin hoping for red.  This will not end well.

Posted by: Kadath | Sep 27 2026 18:34 utc | 37

@32 John

Thanks

I’m thinking they will not start a larger confrontation until Iraq is emptied.

The negotiation/non-negotiation I am finding very confusing. Though we might be quite sure the US will not return to anything close to MoU, at the moment it seems like they are stringing it out for some reason, in spite of what Trump has said.

I don’t know, but it is all unsettling.

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 18:50 utc | 38

I’m thinking they will not start a larger confrontation until Iraq is emptied.
 
Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 18:50 utc | 38
 
—
 
You can’t be suggesting that the Green Zone will be emptied.
 
https://greenzone-oasis.com/
 

Posted by: too scents | Sep 27 2026 18:54 utc | 39

@38 Ornot

End date for US withdrawal from Iraq is 30th, but just now…

“Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told Sky News Arabia that U.S. forces have now “completely completed their withdrawal” from Iraq” Tabz

Also there are reports Qatar is proposed as intermediary in new talks between US and Iran…

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 18:57 utc | 40

I see both Occupied Palestine and Trumperica wanting to wait until after “elections” before they use the nukes we keep hearing about.
 
If they use nukes before the voting it may make a big difference in the outcome but if done after then the public reaction like can and will be ignored.
 
I am hoping that Iran and the axis of resistance force their hands before “elections”.
 

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 19:05 utc | 41

@39 too scents

It is under (nominal at least) Iraqi control:

“The largest embassy in the world, namely, the U.S. embassy is located in the southern part of the International or “Green” Zone overlooking the Tigris River. On 1 January 2009, full control of the International Zone (formerly “Green Zone”) was handed over to Iraqi security forces, though the Zone remained off-limits to the public. This changed on 4 October 2015, when it was opened to the public with certain restrictions, and again on 10 December 2018, when parts of the Green Zone were opened to the public without restrictions for the first time in over 15 years” Wiki

Now called ‘International Zone’ but there is talk it might be renamed again to Trump Zone…just hearsay…

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 19:07 utc | 42

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 18:57 utc | 40
 
Well, the Iraqi PM is a dubious source having been installed at US insistence.
 
Either way, the US has its foot on the neck of oil revenues and I would think it smart to give the withdrawing forces time to get where they are going and unpack their bags before kicking anything off. Once setted those people will be more reluctant to return no matter what the crisis.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 19:09 utc | 43

It is under (nominal at least) Iraqi control:
 
Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 19:07 utc | 42
 
—
 
Iraq has no sovereign foreign trade.  It is all handled by US Treasury proxies in the Green Zone.  Iraq’s foreign reserves are held in a US Treasury custodial account and are managed by the US.
 
Iraq survives on a US allowance.  
 

Posted by: too scents | Sep 27 2026 19:15 utc | 44

Breaking: Major ‘counter-terrorist’ investigation at RAF Fairford which is used by US forces in attacks on Iran. Arrests made in connection with a ‘major incident’ involving ‘explosives’.
 
False flag provocation or people’s anti-imperialist resistance operation?
 
 Power to the people.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 12:39 utc | 1

 
😮
🙁 No! Not the laundromat at Fairford… all the way in the UK, somewhere. They too are catching the laundry fire flu! I mean, it is far too distant for an Iranian missile of any sort, as I am told, so it obviously cannot be related.
 
🙁 Influenzas are scary. They took out so many birds years ago on the other side of the planet. And now they’ve raised the warning on all those UK bases. They might have to return back to employing people hand washing clothes!
 
🙂 You’ll just have to eat foods with less staining sauces — or fly naked. It’s not so bad. You might get used to it. But I hear it is wet and cold in the UK. Just puff out your feathers and hide under a leafy branch. 

Posted by: titmouse | Sep 27 2026 19:18 utc | 45

Nawfal (boo) talks to Philip Pilkington who cuts through all the war propaganda about Hormuz and who controls it:
 
IRAN ARMS MINE ROCKETS THAT COULD SHUT HORMUZ, TANKERS UNDER FIRE – w/ Philip Pilkington
 
Lots of back and forth but Pilkington prevails.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 19:21 utc | 46

@43 Chat

Presencecat declared bases and related hardware are not exactly easy to hide, the movement has been covered somewhat in the press, as well as not wanting a haphazard evacuation like Afghanistan with much left behind. I’m sure there are hidden outfits remaining but nothing compared to previous. In other words the withdrawal was because of proximity to Iran and other instability, so they are not likely to be returned.

@44 too scents

US might fold on Iraq, especially if an objective is to reduce oil supply. Those dispersing US allowance are often seen as corrupt, and currently the (half) government has no money to pay wages, oil revenue is way down due to SoH.

In theory when times are difficult everyone cows to what is offered , in reality often conflict ensues, Iraq has various divides, local claims and dissent.

I don’t know – I’m not sure the government and military could hold the country together if conflict starts.

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 19:41 utc | 47

I don’t know – I’m not sure the government and military could hold the country together if conflict starts.
Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 19:41 utc | 47

 
Agree with that but I would assume there are Gladio-style stay behind groups ready to push events one way or the other.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 19:44 utc | 48

– “Top cleric calls upon all Iraqis to break ‘unjust, inhumane’ US aerial blockade on Iran

The head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, Sheikh Humam Hamoudi, has appealed to all Iraqis to assume their religious responsibilities toward breaking the US aerial blockade on Iran, characterizing any sort of involvement in the siege as “religiously forbidden.”” Fotros

The stand-off at political level…

– “Iran’s Foreign Minister, in response to a question from NBC news on whether or not Iran is prepared for a war, says:

“We are fully prepared. We’ve learned our lessons from the 2 previous wars and have changed our tactics. We are fully prepared, even if it reaches doomsday.””

https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/23992

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 19:51 utc | 49

Posted by: Reza | Sep 27 2026 17:58 utc | 33
Do the wonderful Thai people control their government or is it controlled by Thai bourgeois? 
 
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Sep 27 2026 18:08 utc | 35
 
The Thai live under a crushing regime of rich, westernised elites from which there is no escape beyond the prison walls of poverty and deliberately kneecapped education.
 
A corrupt laiety, monarchy and state treats Thai national resources as a casino and are all too happy to sell off everything to the Jewz while murdering their own Thai civilians in the streets.
 
The king is a useless fuckhead of epic proportions, nothing like his father, who actually contributed to Thai social development.

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 27 2026 19:53 utc | 50

@48 Chat

…or even just to start a conflict rolling.

I followed the last several years in Iraq from quite a distance, how hardline resistance would go political but then entrench for example, or local or regional disatisfaction, and much else – enough to know that it is all way beyond what I know to guess at, but that the country is not nearly as settled as it would seem, with a lot of paused or part-adapted ambitions and rivalries.

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 20:01 utc | 51

Police investigating potential Iran links to suspected bomb plot, Sky News understands

Counter terrorism police are investigating whether Iran is linked to a suspected bomb plot at an RAF base where US bomber aircraft are located, Sky News understands.
However, the origin of the thwarted operation is not yet known.

 
http://youtube.com/post/UgkxhLq_ONATtC1y5ef15CWpFwLsp8SHxcMw?si=Obf36bsEaF_4RMz4
 
You know its propaganda when they disable comments on the YouTube post.
 
Because we can’t have anyone questioning the narrative, can we?

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 27 2026 20:03 utc | 52

Documenting that it was a market that was bombed in Yemen

https://t.me/tabzlive/105577

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 20:09 utc | 53

Footage of a US Remus 600…  ~ Norwegian | Sep 27 2026 14:04 utc | 10 
 
Iran might be better off destroying these drones from now on.
 
They could be booby trapped.

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 27 2026 20:21 utc | 54

Eighteen minute Youtube about a new Chinese narrative film “Once Upon a Time in the Middle East” (2026), a blockbuster in China. Not really a review as an exposition comparing the spurious dehumanizing Hollywood approach to West Asia to the Chinese realistic and humanizing approach. Now to find the film in English.
Recommend to all here, BTW Wave Media is a very good channel:
 
The Chinese blockbuster that Destroys Hollywood’s Middle East Narrative

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 20:33 utc | 55

Nawfal (boo) talks to Philip Pilkington
 
Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 19:21 utc | 46
 
—
 
Nawful believes the satellite data isn’t doctored.  He is either naive of complicit.
 

Posted by: too scents | Sep 27 2026 20:34 utc | 56

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 27 2026 20:03 utc | 52
 
How long before we hear Ms. May’s classic “highly likely”…?

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 20:38 utc | 57

From TPO
 
Reports of a Pakistani military cargo plane, landing at Aden airport in Yemen come after the Chiefs of Staff of the Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani armies held an urgent meeting in Riyadh.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 20:45 utc | 58

ChatNPC @ 46
 

Nawfal (boo)

 
Anyone catch Nawfal trying to bait Marandi with into admitting Iran is truly, madly, deeply an Islamofascist state, or at least trap him into a bumbling uncomfortable response with an unexpected, unrelated question? Nawfal is the young social/indie media version of Piers Morgan, and controlled opposition. I was meh about Nawfal, but this nasty trick revealed him:  
 
@ ~18:30 min:
 
BREAKING: TRUMP REJECTS PEACE OFFER, PLANS STRIKES AFTER MIDTERMS – w/ Prof. Marandi
 
 

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 20:57 utc | 59

@ LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 20:57 utc | 59 about Mario Nawfal..agreed
 
I hope Mario is stupid enough to stay in Dubai until the sand dunes bury him and the rest of the exceptionalist GCC countries…..he really is a pompous ass, IMO

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 21:02 utc | 60

“The European Commission has urged EU member states to reduce gas and electricity consumption to help contain rising energy prices amid disruptions to global supplies caused by the war in Iran, according to POLITICO.

In a September 25 letter to EU energy ministers, Commissioner Dan Jørgensen called for demand-reduction measures to remain in place “for as long as necessary,” warning of constrained supplies and volatile prices.

He stressed, however, that there are currently “no immediate risks to security of supply.”” Tabz

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 21:03 utc | 61

@52  “You know its propaganda when they disable comments on the YouTube post. “
 
You mean like in the you tube link below? 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4gNgHfZ-v4

Posted by: golddigger | Sep 27 2026 21:15 utc | 62

The UK currently holds only 42 days of diesel in its emergency stockpiles. While the UK stands at just 42 days, countries like Italy hold 347 days, the USA has 677 days and Canada and Japan maintain over 1,000 days of supply.
 
In the early 2000s, Britain held over 100 days of diesel reserves. However, as major domestic oil refineries closed down over the years, the country’s massive storage tanks disappeared with them, leaving the UK heavily reliant on just-in-time imports.
 
That is the jeopardy facing every supermarket shelf, every hospital delivery, every harvest, every bin collection and every freight train that still keeps Britain functioning. And the system that supplies that fuel security has been allowed to grow dangerously thin.
 
Meanwhile the UK’s ability to make that fuel itself has been dismantled. From eighteen refineries in the 1970s to nine at the turn of the century, Britain is now down to just four: Domestic demand already exceeded refining capacity before those closures. The gap is filled by imports – more than half of the diesel that goes into British tanks.
 
 
The UK currently holds only 42 days of diesel in its emergency stockpiles. While the UK stands at just 42 days, countries like Italy hold 347 days, the USA has 677 days and Canada and Japan maintain over 1,000 days of supply.
 
 
In the early 2000s, Britain held over 100 days of diesel reserves. However, as major domestic oil refineries closed down over the years, the country’s massive storage tanks disappeared with them, leaving the UK heavily reliant on just-in-time imports.
 
 
That is the jeopardy facing every supermarket shelf, every hospital delivery, every harvest, every bin collection and every freight train that still keeps Britain functioning. And the system that supplies that fuel security has been allowed to grow dangerously thin.
 
 
Meanwhile the UK’s ability to make that fuel itself has been dismantled. From eighteen refineries in the 1970s to nine at the turn of the century, Britain is now down to just four: Domestic demand already exceeded refining capacity before those closures. The gap is filled by imports – more than half of the diesel that goes into British tanks.
 
 
This has happened through a long succession of terrible government choices and neglect that treated energy security as an afterthought. Carbon costs were loaded onto plants that operate here, while higher-carbon fuel could be imported without equivalent burden. Almost every government over the past 20 years helped to create this looming crisis.
 
 
Diesel is the engine room of the economy. And successive governments have allowed the tanks to run towards empty.
 
 
This has happened through a long succession of terrible government choices and neglect that treated energy security as an afterthought. Carbon costs were loaded onto plants that operate here, while higher-carbon fuel could be imported without equivalent burden. Almost every government over the past 20 years helped to create this looming crisis.
 
Diesel is the engine room of the economy. And successive governments have allowed the tanks to run towards empty.
 
 
https://x.com/JamesMelville/status/2103424918930997421

Posted by: UWDude | Sep 27 2026 21:22 utc | 63

The European Commission has urged EU member states to reduce gas and electricity consumption 
 
—
 
Remember when the Commission shut down the air conditioning for the low level staff during the heat wave?
 

EU Commission HQ shuts down air conditioning for lower staffers, but keeps it on for most commissioners
 
‘It’s like feudalism,’ commission staffer tells Politico, referring to how the upper floors occupied by commissioners – the EU executive – kept their air conditioning
 
27 June 2026•Update: 27 June 2026
 
The European Commission’s headquarters in Brussels shut down the air conditioning on its lower floors on Friday as extreme heat swept across Belgium, but the offices of the European Commission president and most of the commissioners remained unaffected, according to Politico.
 
The 13-story Berlaymont building houses Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the bloc’s 26 commissioners, and around 3,000 staffers. Von der Leyen’s office, located on the 13th floor, was not affected by the shutdown, while most commissioners’ offices on floors eight and above also continued to receive air conditioning.
 
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/eu-commission-hq-shuts-down-air-conditioning-for-lower-staffers-but-keeps-it-on-for-most-commissioners/3979743

 
Expect more of the same hilarity.
 

Posted by: too scents | Sep 27 2026 21:23 utc | 64

wierd….  what I copied did not double like that…

Posted by: UWDude | Sep 27 2026 21:24 utc | 65

In response to
”
@52  “You know its propaganda when they disable comments on the YouTube post. “ You mean like in the you tube link below?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4gNgHfZ-v4
Posted by: golddigger | Sep 27 2026 21:15 utc | 62
”
 
In the last day or so Youtube has turned off CC or close caption for all the sites I go to….but the adds have been reduced as well for folks like me which is nice…I always skipped over what I could of them.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 21:30 utc | 66

Australia could face diesel rationing within weeks and prices above A$4 a litre, nearly 40% above today, if the US goes ahead with its export ban, the most worrying development in global fuel markets since the war began, per MST Marquee’s head of energy research.
 
Australia is the world’s largest importer of diesel in absolute terms, accounting for 1% of global fuel demand but 10% of the world’s seaborne diesel imports, and it runs an economy weighted to agriculture and mining. A ban could force the government to stage 3 and 4 of its National Fuel Security Plan, which covers demand reduction and directed allocation of supply.
 
The US exports about 1.3 million barrels of diesel a day, a quarter of its refining output, and has been covering the gap left as Russia and China stopped exporting refined fuels.
 
The UK is now preparing rationing plans of its own, with 42 days of diesel left as of July.
 
 
https://fxtwitter.com/HormuzLetter/status/2104290675869032471

Posted by: UWDude | Sep 27 2026 21:33 utc | 67

Australia burns more diesel per person than any OECD country.
 
At 1.10 tons of oil equivalent per capita, Australia sits almost double the OECD average.
 
Mining, agriculture and transport are the reasons why.
 
Norway is second at 0.90.
 
Canada follows at 0.75.
 
Both tell a similar story: resource extraction and long hauls across empty land.
 
The bottom of the list looks completely different.
 
Japan sits at 0.30, Mexico at 0.16, both well below the US at 0.60 and Germany at 0.59.
 
Diesel demand tracks industry, not wealth.
 
Rich countries built around mining and farming use far more of it than rich countries built around dense cities and rail.
 
graph:
 
 
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2096549798249656720/photo/1

Posted by: UWDude | Sep 27 2026 21:34 utc | 68

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 20:57 utc | 59
 
There’s only so much Nawfal (boo) I can take in one day, might take a look later.
 
I do find him intensely annoying, doubly so because he has some interesting guests on.
 
One thing is for sure: you will never hear him take a pop at the autarchic Emiratis and their passport-slave enclave all of whose obscenities he happily embraces.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 21:56 utc | 69

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 21:30 utc | 66
 
Firefox + uBlock Origin ftw.
 
You can even block the nag popups telling you not to use an adblocker 😀

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 22:01 utc | 70

There’s only so much Nawfal (boo) I can take in one day, might take a look later.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 21:56 utc | 69
 
I don’t bother with Marion Awful at all these days. He seemingly popped up out of nowhere (a bit like that weird Chinese guy whose name I can’t remember right now) and suddenly everyone everywhere pays attention.
 
I find him shallow, often uninformed and too fond of quoting the conventionally-accepted narratives; a strong whiff of “limited hangout” with him. An apprentice Helmer, perhaps?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 27 2026 22:07 utc | 71

I appreciate both Karlofi’s and Rob Campbell’s outstanding work, and I also appreciate that they provide links to make it easy to get to their websites.
Anyone who doesn’t like it can scroll on by.  No harm, no foul.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Sep 27 2026 22:12 utc | 72

psychohistorian @ 60
 

I hope Mario is stupid enough to stay in Dubai until the sand dunes bury him and the rest of the exceptionalist GCC countries…..

 
Nice, the modern pharaonic fetish Gulf States buried under the sands of time like the ancient pharaonic fetish city of Akhetaten buried for 3000ys. Let’s hope it takes equally long for future archeologists to find the GCC ruins and dig them out. Granted it’ll take quite a big of blowing sand to cover the Burj Khalifa, maybe the 1000 foot top spire will be the only thing left sticking out of the sand dunes and future Morlocks will wonder what the strange obelisk ever represented?

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 22:14 utc | 73

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 27 2026 13:47 utc | 7
 
Speaking of Khamenei, some people are working hard to suppress even clerical details such as Khamenei’s name in Persian from English-language Wikipedia.  For the record, the name is spelled علی خامنه‌ای in Persian-Arabic script. 
 
One of the WP “editors” responsible for this manipulation has clocked up no fewer than 13,613 edits on various topics related to the Middle East.  https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Special:Contributions/NeoSyria&target=NeoSyria&offset=&limit=500
 
Other versions of Wikipedia, e.g. the French version, have no qualms about including the Persian spelling of Khamenei’s name.   
 
In a related development pertaining to the Ukraine, Wikipedia has purged all personal and place names in the original Russian language spoken by most Ukrainian residents, including the name of Ukraine’s still-acting president Vladimir A. Zelenskiy, a Russian speaker who grew up in Krivoy Rog (not Kriviy Rog).

Posted by: Pacific Observer | Sep 27 2026 22:22 utc | 74

future Morlocks will wonder what the strange obelisk ever represented?
Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 22:14 utc | 73
 
LOL, they’ll never figure out all it meant was ‘Duty Free Shopping’.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 27 2026 22:22 utc | 75

I find him shallow, often uninformed and too fond of quoting the conventionally-accepted narratives; a strong whiff of “limited hangout” with him. An apprentice Helmer, perhaps?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Sep 27 2026 22:07 utc | 71
 
Popped up from nowhere and infesting your YT feed by the algorithm.
 
I’ll add Transactional Protocol to the list. A slightly more sophisticated effort at misdirection/confusion/disinformation.
 
Both seek to target “alt” commentators who should just stick to their shows or the ones that have been around for a long time now, before it was fashionable. 

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 27 2026 22:25 utc | 76

Hint.
 
When viewing a recently “discovered” channel check the Description option. Tells you if its AI generated but also when it was first set up.
 
More info

 

http://www.youtube.com/@Transition_Protocol

 

United States

 

Joined Jun 9, 2026

 

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 27 2026 22:29 utc | 77

😉 What, you don’t like your Mario Nawfal serving you Blue Steel or Le Tigre pouts as he lobs interview softballs? I kid. I’m sure he’s much better than Hansel, the new kid on his scooter.
 
🙂 Anyway, I wonder if the UK Fairford base concern is there to distract from something else. Maybe the tankers in Strait of Hormuz recently targeted? Or maybe the reasonable and mature response by Iran at the UN? I dunno, feels like the rodeo clowns are out to distract the bull before it gores the cowboy further.

Posted by: titmouse | Sep 27 2026 23:08 utc | 78

In response to
”
I dunno, feels like the rodeo clowns are out to distract the bull before it gores the cowboy further.
 
Posted by: titmouse | Sep 27 2026 23:08 utc | 78
”
 
Your perspective is perfect and exceeding expectations for a birdbrain…grin…thanks

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 23:33 utc | 79

The UK is now preparing rationing plans of its own, with 42 days of diesel left as of July. 
Posted by: UWDude | Sep 27 2026 21:33 utc | 67
 
If they had 42 days of diesel left as of July, aren’t we well past the 42 day mark?

Posted by: Kentuckian | Sep 27 2026 23:47 utc | 80

Three ballistic missiles and drones on Erbil Iraq from Tabriz in Iran according to TPO. Saying US jets intercepting drones…not sure where US jets are based nearby now, or if only ground forces left Iraq …

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 23:48 utc | 81

@ titmouse 78
 
3 days ago Miliband threatened Araghchi that the UK won’t tolerate acts of aggression on its soil.
 
Cue, bombs found at Fairford.
 
I suspect this is to justify further deployment in Yemen as the ‘easier” option for SAS/SBS activities. 

Posted by: Suresh | Sep 27 2026 23:50 utc | 82

@64 too scents

These are only commission recommendations, they are for the good of the majority and unfortunately it is inevitable that some do not profit from such measures…

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 27 2026 23:57 utc | 83

LightYearsFromHome@59:
 
Despite sometime great guests never doubt Nawfal is awful. Weasel through and through. Apparently a stupid weasel too to try sucker punching Marandi who can so easily eat him for breakfast. 

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 27 2026 23:58 utc | 84

And those are the facts.    
Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 27 2026 18:21 utc | 36

 
Thanks for your contribution over the years, Karl. I for one have benefited immensely and am better educated.

Let it be known that the barkeep was an active commenter on goingtotehran.com site back in the day (pre 2015 when the site went defunct after JCPOA). That’s how I found out about him and this site, and what a good find it was, too.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Sep 28 2026 0:04 utc | 85

@80 Kentuckian

Reserves can go up or down depending on imports…I guess they are going down…usually a working minimum is set and then rationing imports (tries to) keeps it at that level…

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 28 2026 0:05 utc | 86

“Civilian aircraft remain grounded in Saudi airspace and, according to the data, are avoiding King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh by 160 kilometers” TPO

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 28 2026 0:18 utc | 87

After official denials of diesel export ban…

“Fox News: What about an export ban on diesel?

Trump: Well, we’re thinking about it very seriously. That can oftentimes lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars.

So we’re looking at it very seriously. We may do it” Tabz

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 28 2026 0:23 utc | 88

I am hoping that Iran and the axis of resistance force their hands before “elections”. 
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2026 19:05 utc | 41

 
No worries ph. Iran will abide.
 
How many October Surprises is Iran responsible for?

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Sep 28 2026 0:42 utc | 89

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 20:57 utc | 59
 
Watching it now, Nawfal plays the shitlib hatchling to disguise a cheap piece of ambush journalism.
 
Marandi could have easily shot him through by pointing out that Emirati police are not the most tender and the laws pertaining in Dubai really do not fit his liberal values (even if they do look the other way for grifter rich kids).

Posted by: ChatNPC | Sep 28 2026 1:03 utc | 90

“A powerful explosion rocks areas in northern Jordan” TPO

Unknown origin for now…

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 28 2026 1:04 utc | 91

Reserves can go up or down depending on imports…I guess they are going down…usually a working minimum is set and then rationing imports (tries to) keeps it at that level…
Posted by: Ornot | Sep 28 2026 0:05 utc | 86
 
 
Then they really didn’t have only 42 days left.

Posted by: Kentuckian | Sep 28 2026 1:04 utc | 92

Smotrich calls for ‘war’ on the West Bank. Death to USrael soon please.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 28 2026 1:07 utc | 93

Re: Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Sep 27 2026 20:57 utc | 59
 
yes,  we all got the news how Trump rejected Irans 7 day proposal…
 
So why then is Araghchi staying and meeting Witkoff  tomorrow,  through now, a Qatari mediation??
 
 
“Next round of indirect US-Iran talks to take place September 28 —“ Axios
According to the sources, Qatari mediators continue to engage in “shuttle diplomacy” in an effort to broker an agreement between Washington and Tehran
 

 

WASHINGTON, September 27. /TASS/. The United States and Iran will hold another round of indirect talks on Monday, September 28, Axios reported, citing sources in the Middle East.
“According to the sources, Qatari mediators continue to engage in “shuttle diplomacy” in an effort to broker an agreement between Washington and Tehran. They will hold separate meetings on September 28 with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Presidential Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.”
 
“It remains unclear whether the sides will be able to overcome their existing differences during the talks, the news outlet noted.”
 
 I also heard Marandi state on a podcast that “they were back home” and that’s why they were free to excel their mining and “warning” campaign targeting the ships,  that the U.S. was taking advantage of their people in NY, getting ships out, and Iran didn’t want to fire on them ect until their people got home safely.
 
Since above is an Axios article, hard to k ow if just lies.
 
However, I admit, there seems to be confusion atm. 

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 28 2026 1:22 utc | 94

@92 Kentuckian

Hormuz Letter missed out the words ‘of reserves’…a reddit conversation says that it tends to skew info … IDK …

Posted by: Ornot | Sep 28 2026 1:31 utc | 95

@ Trubind1 | Sep 28 2026 1:22 utc | 94 about Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still being in the US for supposed negotiations…thx
 
I have been watching this and conjecture that Trump is playing this along and will hold/restrain Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi if he feels it will help with negotiations somehow.
 
I expect if Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is harmed in any way or kept from returning to Iran if negotiations breakdown the IRGC will leash significant attacks on US interest in the region and maybe beyond.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 28 2026 1:32 utc | 96

RE:
“Smotrich calls for ‘war’ on the West Bank. Death to USrael soon please.”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Sep 28 2026 1:07 utc | 93
 
The census of 2917 shows: 
2, 467,000 Palestinian Arabs in West Bank
784,000 USRealis
NONE of them overthrew their idiot Abbas and joined the Hamas Movement during the full in bombing and Genocide of the West Bank
 
They decided to drink the Abbas cool aid while their brothers and sisters were pummeled under the rubble in Gaza, believing they’d never be next.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 28 2026 1:40 utc | 97

I made a lot of mistakes in post #97

  • 2017. Not 2917
  • Not “West Bank” genocide – Gaza

sorry

Posted by: Trubind1 | Sep 28 2026 1:44 utc | 98

The US is remarkably able to push the rest of the world around.  I note that no one walked out on Trump’s demonic speech at the UN.  While dozens of diplomats felt perfectly comfortable walking out on Netanyahu, no one dared to upset the US.And no world leader (that has been reported) managed to denounce Trump’s lies and threats of genocide of an entire country.
 That is some power.   This may not end well.
 
Posted by: wagelaborer | Sep 27 2026 16:50 utc | 21
—
Well said. I had not thought about wondering if anyone walked out on Trump. Good pickup. I’m so used to Trump saying stuff like that I just go ‘wow.’ 

Posted by: frito | Sep 28 2026 1:46 utc | 99

Posted by: Pacific Observer | Sep 27 2026 17:50 utc | 31
—
You’re welcome. Krainer is one of the few I will listen to now.

Posted by: frito | Sep 28 2026 1:49 utc | 100