There is a lack of diesel in the global markets. It is the most important fuel as it is used most land transport services, all agricultural machinery and lots of independent power sources.
The reasons for the lack of fuel are obvious:
For more than a year the U.S. has provided targeting data to Ukraine to damage or destroy Russian refineries:
Ukraine hit Russian energy sites with US help (archived) – FT, Oct 2 2025
The US has for months been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities, in what officials say is a co-ordinated effort to weaken Vladimir Putin’s economy and force him to the negotiating table.
American intelligence shared with Kyiv has enabled strikes on important Russian energy assets including oil refineries far beyond the frontline, according to multiple Ukrainian and US officials familiar with the campaign.
The previously unreported support has intensified since midsummer and has been crucial in helping Ukraine carry out attacks that Joe Biden’s White House discouraged. Kyiv’s strikes have driven up energy prices in Russia and prompted Moscow to cut diesel exports and import fuel.
Russia’s prohibition of diesel export continues to this day.
Another obvious reason is the U.S-Israeli war on Iran launched in February of this year. Iran responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz through which, in normal times, 20% of the global crude oil and oil product supplies flow. Several refineries in the Persian Gulf are unable to export the diesel they make.
A third reason is the reignition of the Saudi war on Yemen. Ansar Allah, the ruling government of Yemen, has responded to Saudi air strikes with missiles against Saudi refineries. Additional drone strikes have disabled the Saudi East-West pipeline which will soon cause the still functioning Saudi refineries on its west coast to run out of stock.
The situation for Saudi Arabia is so bad that its main export company for crude and oil products is now searching for imports:
Aramco Hunts for Fuel Supply in the Mediterranean After Attacks (archived) – Bloomberg, Sep 17 2026
Oil giant Saudi Aramco has been looking to secure thousands of tons of diesel in the Mediterranean after a series of attacks on its energy facilities over the past few weeks.
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Aramco has been bidding for diesel cargoes in a pricing window operated by Platts, a unit of S&P Global, over several weeks, according to brokers monitoring the activity. Traders active in the market said Aramco has also been looking for gasoline in Europe too.
The Saudis have warned European trading partners that they will unable to fulfill their current contracts:
Saudi Aramco has informed at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will receive no crude oil next month following an attack on the kingdom’s main pipeline to the Red Sea, according to a report from Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter.
European customers typically receive Saudi Arabian crude through term contracts that provide steady monthly supply. These deliveries will not occur next month, the people said. The decision affects all European buyers, they added.
The Saudis are rushing to circumvent the three pumping stations on its East-West pipelines that have been destroyed. But the lack of pumping capacity will lessen the pressure in the pipelines. The throughput will thus be throttled for the several months it will take to rebuild the pumping stations. Even then there is no guarantee that the Yemenis will not just repeat their successful attacks.
The only country that is currently producing its own oil, refines it to diesel, and exports it into the global market is the U.S. of A. This year the U.S. has exported up to 1.5 million barrel of ‘distilled fuel oil’ (i.e. diesel) per month.
That is however likely to soon come to an end.
At the same time U.S. refineries are running 24/7 at their highest possible capacity the diesel price within the U.S. has nearly doubled:
“Consumers should plan on higher prices for longer,” said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, which tracks U.S. fuel prices.
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De Haan said diesel could hit $6.60 a gallon as early as this weekend. A handful of states have already exceeded that benchmark, including California, where diesel costs an average of $8.35 a gallon, according to AAA.
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In addition to consumer goods, elevated diesel prices could also increase Americans’ utility bills, Kloza said. Northeast residents in particular could also be in for an expensive winter, given that around 4 million households rely on heating oil, made from diesel, to keep their homes warm, he said.“They’re looking at prices in the $6 range,” he said. “If you use 1,000 gallons in a winter, that’s $6,000.”
Eight weeks before the mid term election higher fuel prices are a political issue.
Due to the short time frame that Trump administration has little abilities to influence the prices except by blocking diesel exports.
This would decouple U.S. fuel prices from global demand. There is political support for such a move:
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said Tuesday he was “open” to the discussion about an export ban, ..
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The White House did not rule out an oil export ban in a statement to Axios.
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Congress could pass legislation to enact restrictions. Additionally, the president has emergency powers to enforce export bans, according to the Congressional Research Service.
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Crude oil exports were once heavily restricted — though not completely banned — for decades before Congress lifted the limits in 2015, per the Energy Information Administration.
Following an export ban prices in the U.S. would sink while they increasing significantly elsewhere.
Europe would be screwed. Without crude from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States its refineries will soon run dry. The U.S., as one of the few current net producers, will soon stop or limit diesel exports to Europe. This while the EU has sanctioned itself out of imports from Russia. It is even urging Ukraine to destroy more Russian fuel supplies. It additionally has taken measures to hinder and limit Russian seaborne exports.
Diesel prices in Europe are already at record heights. Some fuel stations have breached the €3 per liter mark ($11,40/gl). Inflation caused by high fuel prices will soon be out of control. There will be protests and social unrest.
Europe could of course solve the problem by immediately lifting the sanctions against Russia and by pushing Ukraine to stop its U.S. directed campaign against Russian refineries.
That however would require European politicians with their people’s interests at heart.
It has been quite a while since any such people have been around …