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War On Iran: Crude Price Nears $100 Barrel While Trump Still Hopes To Win
Another attack by Ansarullah of Yemen has damaged three oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia. The ARAMCO refinery in Jizan, with a capacity of 400,000 barrel per day (bpd), went offline. Crude oil prices increased:
By 08:00 GMT, Brent crude futures had increased by $2, or 2.06%, reaching $99 per barrel (bbl), reported Reuters.
Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $94.41/bbl, up $2.93, or 3.2%.
Earlier in the session, Brent touched $99.22/bbl, its strongest mark since 24 July, while WTI reached $94.60/bbl, a peak last seen on 8 June.
The Ansarullah government of Yemen, often called the Houthi after one of its main groups, controls only some 33% of the country but 80% of the Yemeni population. The Saudi are arming and sponsoring its local opposition. There is little chance that it could win in a fight against the Houthi.
The reduction of Saudi output may be the final straw that breaks the oil price’s back.
Despite the U.S./Israeli war on Iran, oil had so far not breached the psychological mark of $100 barrel. The use of national reserves and the reduction of Chinese oil imports had kept the price unnaturally low. The reserves however are low by now and Chinese importers are back in the markets. Thus the loss of crude production due to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is finally making itself felt.
Product prices of oil derivates had already risen a lot. Refinery owners have made record profits. U.S. consumers has to spend an extra $100 billion on energy.
U.S. President Donald Trump has finally acknowledged the problem. He admitted that his war he is waging on Iran is far from being won:
President Donald Trump on Monday claimed that oil prices will “drop precipitously” when the U.S. wins the ongoing war with Iran.
“Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran,” the president wrote in a post to social media. “Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA!”
Oil traders do not see lower oil prices (archived):
Oil may rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which recommended bets on natural gas and diesel as a way to capture gains.
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The standoff after more than six months of war has boosted a wide array of energy prices, with gains in natural gas and petroleum products outpacing crude oil. Industrial fuel diesel has more than doubled this year.
Iran has announced that it will extend its control zone around Hormuz and intensify its measures against the U.S. blockade:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: Crude Price Nears $100 Barrel While Trump Still Hopes To Win
The ‘Longstanding Tradition’ Of Defense Corruption In Ukraine
Corruption in Ukraine is a long standing issue. As the Guardian headlined more than a decade ago:
Welcome to Ukraine, the most corrupt nation in Europe – Guardian, Feb 6 2015
The inflow of money to Ukraine since the beginning of the war has only increased the problem. With billions of dollars flowing in everyone in a position to capture some of it will give it a try.
Western media mostly ignore the issue. It only comes up when it is needed to interfere in favor of this or that faction within Ukraine.
Yesterday’s double NY Times serving about corruption within Ukraine’s weapon procurement, must be seen in that light.
In Ukraine, Fraud and Waste Are Rewarded With More Weapons Contracts (archived) – NY Times, Sep 6 2026
4 Things We Found in Secret Ukrainian Military Audits (archived) – NY Times, Sep 6 2026
From the first piece:
A Ukrainian arms factory, it turned out, had supplied the military with thousands of defective mortar rounds. A burly weapons factory boss, Leonid Shyman, would eventually be arrested and charged in one of the war’s most public examples of defense-industry fraud.
But even as the officials noticed that weapons were arriving faulty, government audits obtained by The New York Times show, Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency continued to award Mr. Shyman’s factory new contracts.
The case reflects a persistent phenomenon of the war in Ukraine. Seven of Ukraine’s top 10 military contractors won new business despite open criminal investigations for fraud, failures to deliver on earlier deals or the arrest of chief executives for corruption, according to the government audits obtained by The Times, court records and Ukrainian news accounts.
The second piece sums up the worst cases:
- Auditors found repeated examples of inflated prices, yet nothing was done.
- Companies failed to deliver, or provided faulty ammo, and still got more contracts.
- Companies won contracts without proving they could deliver.
- Arms companies reported rising profits, while Ukraine’s losses piled up.
Auditors found that in just one year, 2024, Ukraine lost about $1.2 billion to fraud, waste and mismanagement.
U.S. and European tax payers have spent quite a lot to learn about the national sports of Ukraine:
“Anything that isn’t nailed down in Ukraine will be stolen,” said James Wasserstrom, an American anticorruption expert who has tried throughout the war to draw attention to defense industry fraud. “This has been a longstanding tradition.”
The NY Times revelation, laudable though late as it is, comes with a political intention . It is promoting a Ukraine figure as ‘clean’ even while that person is part of the swamp:
Cont. reading: The ‘Longstanding Tradition’ Of Defense Corruption In Ukraine
Iran Open Thread 2026-195
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-194
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-193
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-193
U.S. Military Attacks Private Iranian Assets – Expect Iran To Respond In Kind
The U.S. military is (again) disregarding the rules of war.
U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM – 13:38 UTC · Sep 5, 2026
CENTCOM Destroys 3 IRGC Oil Tankers After Iran Targets 2 U.S. Navy Warships
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces struck three Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 5, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missiles toward two U.S. Navy warships patrolling regional waters.
A U.S. aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple unprovoked Iranian attacks. No American personnel were harmed.
Following Iran’s failed attacks, CENTCOM permanently disabled the IRGC crude oil carriers M/T Downy off the coast of Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask. American forces also completely destroyed the unladen crude oil carrier M/T Kylo (also known as the “Noxen”) in the Gulf of Oman, striking the vessel in multiple critical locations to render it inoperable after the crew was directed to abandon ship.
The three Iranian crude oil tankers are part of a multibillion-dollar shadow network that funds the IRGC and its regional proxies. Iran has no means by which to defend them. …
Iran had been attacked by the U.S. and responded in kind. The parties are at war. The U.S. is currently blockading the Iranian coast. In response the Iranian military has targeted two U.S. warships who are part of the blockade force. This was, under the rules of war, a legitimate attack against legitimate targets.
U.S. strikes against military targets in Iran would have been a legitimate response.
The three tankers the U.S. has hit instead are not military targets.
There is no such thing as an “IRGC oil tanker”. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps isn’t a shipping company.
The ownership of the M/T Downy, IMO 9218480, is not public. It is under Iranian flag. Kharg island, near to where the ship was hit, is in the upper east of the Persian Gulf – far away from the U.S. maintained blockade line.
The M/T Stark 1, IMO 9171450, is also under Iranian flag and owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company which:
.. is a subsidiary of the National Iranian Oil Company, which was privatized in 2009. As of 2011, NITC was owned by funds managing pensions for 5 million Iranians. It is the biggest tanker company in the Middle East.
The M/T Stark 1 was near Jask in the Sea of Oman.
The M/T Kylo, previously M/T Noxen, IMO 9189146, is under the flag of Cameroon. The ownership is not public. The ship was at anchor in the Gulf of Oman.
All three ships are civil carriers. They were unarmed. None of them was attempting to break the U.S. blockade or in any way involved in military activities. None of them was in any way a justifiable military target.
Why does this matter?
The U.S. military is breaching the rules of war. It is highly likely that Iran will respond in kind.
The CentCom strike on these ships give Iran a public justification to respond with hits at any and all civilian, privately owned, assets which are somewhat related to the U.S. of A. There are thousands of those within Iran’s neighborhood.
It is probably wise for now to avoid any visit to any McDonalds in an area near or in the Middle East.
Inside The Fight Of MI6 And CIA Proxies Over Who Is To Lead Ukraine
This fight over the future of Ukraine is intensifying.
Not only on the frontline, or between local power centers in Kiev, but also between the security services of the Anglo-American ‘allies’.
On Wednesday Kiev experienced a gun fight between units of the main (military) intelligence service GRU and forces of the internal security service (SBU) of Ukraine.
The confusing incident has a multifold background. Events in Ukraine attempts to summarize the reasons:
First, the old conflict between the SBU and the GUR. In this case, it’s actually a question of the SBU and the new GUR leadership against the old leader of the GUR, Kirilo Budanov, and the legions of GUR warriors who remain loyal to Budanov. On the side of the SBU, we have its ruthless leader Oleksandr Poklad, also known as ‘the Strangler’.
Mapping onto this first conflict is a second one. On the side of the SBU is Zelensky’s power clan, which has long been frustrated with Budanov’s excessive ambitions. The fact that Budanov still wields a private army of prominent, ideologically fanatical warlords displeases the president and his private court. Budanov has also been trying to foil Zelensky’s plan to appoint the ultra-loyal Poklad as de jure head of the SBU. …
Third and most importantly, revenue. More precisely, competition over control of the highly lucrative scam call centre business, which employs around 60,000 Ukrainians and brings in $1 billion USD a month. The Europeans have been pushing Zelensky to crack down on the industry, which very obviously operates with the sanction of Ukraine’s ‘law enforcement’ agencies, particularly the GUR and SBU.
There have previously been such incidents between the GRU and SBU. One shootout was over the control of a luxury vacation retreat. Others over more valuable businesses:
Today’s shootout comes right as Zelensky announced a new law to target the scam call centres. Just in time, because over the past few months, there has been a spate of terrorist attacks and murders around the world, all linked to the GUR and its scam call centres — torture and decapitation in Bali, explosions in Monaco, and worst of all, naive European burghers scammed out of their savings. Constantly linked with this transnational web of violence is the GUR’s bizarre menagerie of fanatical warlords, along with more traditional mafia bosses.
These mafia like turf wars have long become normal in Ukraine.
But there is more behind the recent one than a hassle about phone scam revenues.
As head of the GRU Kirilo Budanov had become a serious competitor for the (acting) president Vladimir Zelinski. He was promoted away from the GRU, and thereby cut off from most of his resources and soldiers, to lead the office of the president. While this is a powerful position, the step was taken to keep Budanov under control.
Even deeper behind this is a fight between the Zelenski allies in the British MI6, and the CIA over who is to take the lead in Ukraine.
As Black Mountian Analysis writes:
Cont. reading: Inside The Fight Of MI6 And CIA Proxies Over Who Is To Lead Ukraine
Cause And Effect Of High Diesel Prices
The Trump administration has yet to learn of cause and effect …
Bessent Blames High Energy Prices on Ukraine’s Russia Strikes (archived) – Bloomberg, Sep 2 2026
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities were one reason for rising global energy prices, citing those attacks before mentioning the war against Iran when asked about the elevated cost of living in the US.
“We are going through an energy shock right now, due to both the war in Ukraine, because Ukraine has decided that they want to blow up Russian energy assets and refined products — so that is creating upward price pressure on a global basis — and then the conflict in Iran,” Bessent said on Fox News on Wednesday.
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The strikes have forced Moscow to extend a ban on diesel exports through the end of the month. That development, combined with relatively fewer cargoes of fuel making it through the Strait of Hormuz than crude, has tightened supplies worldwide.
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US intel guided Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy sites (archived) – FT, Oct 12 2025
The US has for months been helping Ukraine mount long-range strikes on Russian energy facilities, in what officials say is a co-ordinated effort to weaken Vladimir Putin’s economy and force him to the negotiating table.
American intelligence shared with Kyiv has enabled strikes on important Russian energy assets including oil refineries far beyond the frontline, according to multiple Ukrainian and US officials familiar with the campaign.
The previously unreported support has intensified since midsummer and has been crucial in helping Ukraine carry out attacks that Joe Biden’s White House discouraged. Kyiv’s strikes have driven up energy prices in Russia and prompted Moscow to cut diesel exports and import fuel.
Iran Open Thread 2026-192
News & views related to the war on Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-191
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-190
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
How Ukraine’s 40-Day Campaign Has Influenced Russia
On June 24 the (acting) president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelinski announced a 40-day campaign:
“I approved a 40-day operation by the Service to influence the aggressor state in order to press for an end to the war,” Zelenskiy wrote on Telegram.
Ukraine has for months engaged in waves of medium-range and long-range strikes on targets in Russia or Russian-held areas, mainly focused on the oil industry.
The campaign was launched while life in Kiev was still relative peaceful. Russian attacks were aimed at industrial sites but tried to avoid civilian targets. Ukrainian im- and exports via Odessa harbor were fully functional. The whole country had sufficient energy supplies.
During the campaign the Ukrainian forces used drones to attack Russia’s oil industry. Strikes on power installations in Crimea, Moscow and St. Peterburg followed. Ukraine soon added all Russian shipping and harbor installations in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea to its target list. Last but not least it started to strike at purely civilian targets in Russia like the warehouses of Wildberry, the Russian Amazon.
The campaign was designed to influence Russian politics as well as Ukraine’s supporters in the West:
Lutsevych suggests Ukraine’s successes in bringing the war to Russia – before and within the 40-day campaign – may have contributed to a change of attitude in the Trump administration towards Ukraine.
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“I think it shows it is done for Russia in its attempt to conquer Ukraine and is important for the strategic posture of Ukraine’s forces in the future, although it is more symbolic at the moment.”
Zelenski’s campaign however did not take into account that Russia could react and would hit back.
The Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, intended to create transport problems for Russia, were responded to by drone attacks on Ukrainian gas stations. More than 300 of those throughout the country’s east have been destroyed by Russian drone strikes. Additionally, Russian forces targeted Ukraine’s railways. So far nearly 500 locomotives have been destroyed or damaged.
Both measures have made the re-supply of Ukrainian front line groupings increasingly difficult.
Attacks on Russian related shipping in the Azov and Black Sea were likewise mirrored.
Cont. reading: How Ukraine’s 40-Day Campaign Has Influenced Russia
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