Last Friday, August 28, the U.S. Central Command claimed to have removed all sea mines from the Strait of Hormuz:
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced that U.S. forces have cleared Iranian sea mines from the internationally recognized shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, saying the routes are now open to commercial shipping.
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The announcement follows earlier statements by President Donald Trump that U.S. forces had removed or detonated mines in international waters in the strait. Cooper’s latest video provides CENTCOM’s formal operational confirmation that the Traffic Separation Scheme has been cleared.
From the position of the U.S. this was, of course, good news.
There was the slight problem that no one believed it:
U.S. allies have privately assessed that some mines may not have been cleared. Earlier estimates from the International Maritime Organization and industry groups placed the number of mines in the historic shipping lanes at around 80, with some assessments higher.
Allied officials have also warned that sea currents can move mines and that residual risks could remain outside the main monitored lanes.
The International Maritime Organization and maritime information centers continue to advise vessels to exercise maximum caution in the area. Shipping companies and insurers are also conducting their own risk assessments.
Iran continued to warn ships to not use any routes besides the one’s designated by it.
(However, there has been no evidence yet that any mines had indeed been laid.)
On Sunday Iran said that the U.S. had attacked Iranian military positions on the island of Larak which sits in the northern edge of the Strait of Hormuz. This was the first attack after a month of relative peace. The strike resulted in the death and injury of several Iranian servicemen.
CentCom later confirmed the strike:
U.S. forces attacked two Iranian rocket launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, according to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), marking the first publicly confirmed strike on Iran in weeks.
In a statement to TIME, CENTCOM spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins confirmed the strikes on the launchers on Larak Island, adding that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces “were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines” into the strait.
Iran has Fajr-5 missiles which can lay mines up to a 100 kilometer distance. Fired from Larak the mines can be deployed all over the Strait and up the western and eastern coast of the UAE.
The Iranian Republican Guards Corp (IRGC) promised revenge for the U.S. strike. Within a few hours it launched missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan:
In a statement issued on Monday morning, the IRGC said a combined missile and drone operation, codenamed “Punishment of the Aggressor,” targeted the King Hussein and Al-Azraq military bases hosting US forces.
The operation hit “technical and repair infrastructure, as well as the enemy fighter deployment sites,” inflicting significant damage on the aggressor’s military assets.
Video from Jordan showed the launch of several air defense missiles. There are no reports yet of impacts from the Iranian strikes.
An additional Iranian response was launched with drones targeting U.S. positions in the United Arab Emirates:
The army said in a statement on Monday morning that the attack involved dozens of suicide drones, and struck locations housing US military helicopters and personnel at al-Minhad Air Base, located approximately 24 kilometers (15 miles) south of Dubai.
The UAE said its air defenses engaged some drones but gave no information of the results or impacts.
Iran then announced a third strike against U.S. assets:
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says its air defense forces have shot down a US MQ-9 long-range unmanned aerial vehicle over the Strait of Hormuz.
In a statement on Monday, the IRGC said the drone was struck by missile fire from the force’s modern air defense units and crashed into the waters of the Persian Gulf.
In total more than 50 MQ-9 drones, at a price of $30 million each, have been shot down by Iran during the conflict.
Three strikes against U.S. positions and assets is a intentionally disproportional response for the U.S. strike.
In an additional announcement the Islamic Republic reported that a supertanker in the Strait had hit two mines:
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)’s Navy says a rogue supertanker attempting to navigate an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz struck two sea mines, triggering massive fires on board the vessel and bringing it to a complete stop.
In a statement issued on Monday, the IRGC Navy said the tanker had attempted to pass through a route not authorized under the Islamic Republic’s maritime security regulations.
While the damage of the ship has yet to be confirmed by independent sources it is reasonable to assume that the Iranian official statement is true.
The CentCom scheme of declaring all mines cleared to reopen the Strait has thus been defeated.
It is obviously still Iran which has the total control over the Strait.
While some tankers carrying oil are allowed to slip through, rumors have it that some of these are also carrying Iranian oil and are thus defeating the blockade of Iran which the U.S. imposed.
As the consequence of the above skirmishes Brent crude oil prices rose 2%.
Meanwhile the U.S. military continues to ‘leak’ reports to the press which condemn the whole Iran operation:
Several U.S. military leaders have advised Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that prolonging large-scale operations against Iran is unsustainable and risks weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere, including the U.S. homeland, according to people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief.
The warnings — detailed for Hegseth by the heads of the Army, Navy and Air Force and the four-star commanders overseeing U.S. operations throughout Europe, Asia and Latin America — appear in the Aug. 14 edition of the Secretary of Defense Orders Book (SDOB), these people said. They described the assessment to The Washington Post on the condition of anonymity because the document is classified.
This leaks come after others claiming a lack of ammunition and discomfort with the long deployment of U.S. assets.
It is obvious that the bowels of the Pentagon are quite uncomfortable with its head’s decisions.