The government of Iran under President Masoud Pezeshkian is in a difficult position. The war the U.S., Israel, and their proxies are waging against the country has created huge damage. The local economy suffered. The blockade the U.S. enacts against Iran has blocked its oil sales.
There is little chance for the Iranian government to solve the problems by its own interior measures. From a short term utilitarian standpoint it would make sense for it to file for peace.
But unlike other heads of governments the President of Iran does not have full control over war and peace. That is job of the Supreme National Security Council, which includes the president, but also the military and intelligence leadership as well as representatives of the leader who has a veto over its decisions. The councils considerations are long term and focused on the country’s independence. Economic issues take second place.
Pezeshkian’s calls for peace negotiations must thus be seen as internal lobbying:
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Friday it was time to end the months-long Middle East war with the United States because Tehran was in a position of strength over Washington.
…
“It is better that we bring the war to an end now as we are in a position of power and dignity,” Pezeshkian said in a meeting with doctors.“The whole world acknowledges our victory and emphasizes that America has attacked our schools, hospitals and infrastructure in violation of all regulations and is hated around the world.”
Pezeshkian was referring to the Memorandum of Understanding which U.S. President Donald Trump signed while immediately disregarding several of its clauses.
The problem with wishing to go back to the MoU is that there is no one on the other side who is willing to do so. The U.S. is still looking for regime change.
While Pezeshkian might want to go back to diplomacy the ‘hardliners’ in the Security Council can rightly point out that there is no one to talk to. There is no off-ramp Iran could take.
The Trump administration seems to believe that there is sufficient oil flowing from the Gulf to support the global economy:
The U.S. military has quietly established a shipping corridor in and out of the Strait of Hormuz to transport millions of barrels of oil each day — a notable success even as the broader war remains at a stalemate, two U.S. officials told Axios.
– Under the operation, which has been underway for the last several weeks, 15–20 tankers have entered and exited the strait each night through a southern channel along the coast of Oman.
– About 10 million barrels of oil a day — roughly half the pre-war volume — are being transported out of the strait and injected into the global energy market, the officials said.
Those claims are of course bollocks as independent sources account:
Kpler assesses three to 12 crossings daily for the last several days, including tankers, bulkers, boxships, and traffic through the Iranian-controlled lane on the north side of the strait – not just oil through the Omani side. The consultancy’s methodology includes SAR satellite radar imaging, making its counting independent of AIS transmissions, which can be easily manipulated.
and:
Seven commodity ships sailed along the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, just half the previous day’s tally, showed data from shiptracker Kpler, …
Of the total, four ships entered and three exited the waterway, … The seven did not include any very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers.
On top of that three Chinese VLCCs have U-turned in the Strait of Hormuz during the past 48 hours.
Despite those facts the Treasury Secretary (and failed bond trader) Scott Bessent says that he does not understand why oil prices spike.
Bessent was also stupid enough to ask China to join upcoming new sanctions on Iran. His call was promptly rejected:
“Sanctions and pressure will not help resolve the issue,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters at a briefing, urging all relevant parties to take responsible measures and resolve the crisis through political and diplomatic channels.
Bessent’s fevered attempts to find ways to put economic pressure on Iran is telling everyone that the Trump administration does not want to go back to fighting. It wants to keep the blockade on Iran but without further bombing.
Iran can not live with that.
That is why Iran’s Security Council is likely to escalate and to increase its pressure on the U.S.
It can ask its friends in Iraq and Yemen to launch new attacks on U.S. aligned targets. It can seize ships trying to pass the Strait. It can attack U.S. vessels which attempt to enforce the blockade.
Trump is under pressure. The price of oil, gas and diesel will keep rising. Bessent’s failed attempt to intervene in the Treasuries markets demonstrates the administration’s nervousness.
I expect Iran to slowly increase its activities against U.S. targets. These will probably look like pin pricks but they will hurt. It will try to avoid U.S. retaliations and will, for now, avoid more massive measures.
One must remember that this is not the first time Iran had to struggle with hostile economic measures:
Barack Obama @BarackObama – 1:18 UTC · Oct 12, 2012
VP Biden on Iran: “These are the most crippling sanctions in the history of sanctions. Period.”
When Obama tried that Iran did not give in. It was the Obama administration which had to make concessions (Iran was allowed to enrich) to finally get to the nuclear agreement.
Trump will likewise have to find a way out.