Once again the U.S. president threatened to bomb Iran to smithereens. Once again he pulled back, while, once again, claiming that Iran was begging for negotiations, which, once again, Iran denied.
Welcome to Monday.
It is the fifth time Trump TACOed on bombing Iran.
Last Saturday, while the U.S. military was getting ready to (again) bomb Iran. Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister of Iran, picked up the phone and called up his colleagues in the Arab Gulf states. He read them lists of the individual targets in their countries which Iran would destroy should Trump, for once, do what he promised.
The Gulf countries consulted each other. Mohammad bin Sultan, the Saudi ruler, was chosen to tell Trump – in diplomatese – to shut the fuck up:
HRH the Crown Prince stressed the need to prioritize dialogue to reduce escalation and the importance of making every possible effort to achieve calm that paves the way for diplomatic solutions, preserves the region’s security and stability, and prevents a wider conflict whose repercussions would affect regional and international security and stability.
Without exporting oil Saudi Arabia would not be able to import U.S. weapons. It would have to sell treasuries to finance its living.
Explaining such second order effects might well have been what moved Trump:
The crown prince also asked for clarity over U.S. strategy on Iran and the planned strikes, the officials familiar with the matter said.
Behind the scenes, Gulf countries are frustrated with what they see as a lack of a clear strategy from the U.S. as the war drags on, subjecting their territories to frequent Iranian attacks, people familiar with the matter said.
Not everyone has yet come to their senses:
Not all Gulf countries are pushing for de-escalation. Some, such as the United Arab Emirates, have lobbied Trump in recent days to take more decisive action against Iran, according to senior Gulf officials familiar with the discussion. The officials have suggested Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps won’t compromise until the U.S. escalates, takes control over the strait and perhaps considers ground operations.
The UAE itself, despite having bought a bunch of Israeli weapons, is unable to defend itself. Its rulers seem to be in need of some serious whacking.
The U.S. can not take control of the Strait. It does not have the manpower needed for the necessary ground operation. Its military is out of ideas:
“We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran,” an officer in US Central Command’s intelligence branch wrote in a message sent Wednesday to a broad group of military analysts, according to a source familiar with the message. A second source also said that a senior US military officer sent the message last week soliciting new ideas for how to deal with Iran.
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Both the Central Intelligence Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency have recently assessed that the kind of bombing the US is carrying out is unlikely to shift the Iranian negotiating position, CNN has reported.The president’s most senior military adviser, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, has acknowledged publicly that bombing alone is unlikely to accomplish all Trump’s previously stated objectives for the war.
“Air power has its limits,” Caine told lawmakers last month.
It is Iran which has escalation dominance. The U.S. has pulled out from the Kurdish region In Iraq. Its troops have left Kuwait and Bahrain. Iran has already hit Jordan, where some U.S. troops have moved to. Those U.S. troops who have moved into Israel are next on the menu.
Iran no longer believes in a peace deal. It is content to keep going until the U.S. fundamentally changes its hostile strategy.
But Iran is unlikely to wait for the U.S. next strike. It will instead soon start its own escalation. There will be more ‘surprises’ for U.S. ships and installations.
The Strait of Hormuz will stay closed. Additionally the Bab al-Mandab exit from the Red Sea is closed for Saudi exports. Iran will keep it that way until the economic consequences will make themselves felt more urgently in Donald Trump’s own country.
That may still take awhile as we have yet to reach ‘tank bottom’:
The tank bottoms narrative misjudges two critical factors. First, it glosses over the huge accumulation of oil stocks in China over the last decade that today provides an impressive cushion. Before the war broke out, Beijing had more than 1,400 million barrels in strategic stocks; since then it has drawn, perhaps, about 100 million barrels or so. China still has plenty in reserve to keep its imports below pre-war levels.
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The second problem with the tank bottoms narrative is that it exaggerates the depletion of the strategic reserves held by rich nations. … [They] still have another billion barrels or so held in reserve for future disbursement if the disruption continues. Japan and South Korea, in particular, have plentiful inventories.
Then again – you don’t want to run reserves to zero.
Besides – the not-so-rich countries with no reserves are the ones getting screwed by this.
There is no predicting when and how this might end. A week or two from now me may see a repeat of the same story. New threats by Trump, new counter threats, and another TACO.
The man-child in the White House it out of options but also too stubborn to give in.