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August 30, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-188

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

Ukraine and World Affairs (includes Iran/ME): Weekly Update, 28th August 2026: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs (including Iran/ME): Weekly Update

Posted by: The Busker | Aug 30 2026 14:15 utc | 1

The general narrative today is focused on burying the elensky admission of negligence for the Myla warehouse siting decisions (War crimes). The aluvium is stories about Russia strikes “food warehouses” and “Russia will not talk” after Ratcliff proposed bilateral talks. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 14:17 utc | 2

I’ll just repost something that got lost between the change of page and change of thread, I think the RF 265 ktons vs AFU 55 ktons is worth exploring. Another sign of the true results of the SMO.
 
30.000 was always a floor, not a ceiling.It always goes down to the big question, losses and replenishment .
 those who know me already heard several tangential analysis.
 i have a new one. Traditionally it takes 75kgs of explosives to neuter a soldier (seems a lot but there are a lot of wasted shots in a war)thing is , AFU lost the artillery race long ago, no plane bombing worth talking about and had an early edge on drones, so a “measly” 55 million kgs . 735k RF permanent casualties at 75kg , 1.1 m at 50kgs assuming better kill chain and targeting information.
 now RF we’re talking about 10x in shells, parity in drones and exclusivity in hard hitting FFABs.265 million  kgs. At 75kgs per soldier a mind blowing (pun intended ) 3.5 m permanent casualties, and even with a wasteful 100kgs per soldier? 2.65 m. 
Even the 100kg number, leads not to 30.000 but 50.000 monthly needs for AFU. 
RF barely needs 21k. Both these numbers in worst scenario , AFU buying casualties at 50 kg, RF spending 100kgs. 
not to mention the lethality profile, drones mainly maim, shells it’s a coin toss, FABs obliterate … 
so that’s my take  
Posted by: Newbie | Aug 30 2026 11:14 utc | 93

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 30 2026 14:39 utc | 3

…  most EU peasants being inherently anti-Russian so they will refuse to accept any reality where Ukraine would lose, resulting with accelerated timetable of Nato and EU states/UK ending up de-militarized and bankrupt.
 
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2026 11:41 utc | 97
 
Well of course we EU peasants are mostly anti-Russian, imperator.  The Russians mounted a barbarous attack on an innocent neighbouring country, that attack now genocidal, and if we don’t look sharp they’ll carry the attack further and the men with snow on their boots will be marching through Bielefeld and Tunbridge Wells.  Wouldn’t you be anti-Russian in those circumstances?
 
It’s a nice simple story, easy to understand in the few minutes we have to spare from making a living, and tens of thousands of information warriors have been telling it to us for the past five years.
 
More like hundreds of thousands.  We’re living in the most expensive and well-manned information war in history.  I’ve long since lost count of the number of NATO units deployed for  information war and that’s even before starting on the press and internet.  It’s massive.  Compared with the information war we saw in Iraq 2, or even in Libya, this one’s totaler Krieg and it carries all before it. 
 
What have the Russians to put up against that?  Nothing much.  A long tale of resisting NATO aggression.  Or some dubious excuse about protecting the Donbass.  They would say that, wouldn’t they, and everyone knows they were the ones who stirred up trouble in the Donbass in the first place.  It’s no contest.  Our information war is better than theirs and it’s won hands down. 
 
It’s won hands down in the West, that is.  A few years back I adapted the old joke to modern circumstances.  1945.  A couple of Russian Generals picking their way through the ruins of a shattered Berlin.  “By the way, who won the information war?”  “Oh, they did, no question about it.  We were never in with a chance.”
 
As for “… Nato and EU states/UK ending up de-militarized and bankrupt,”  I don’t know about the US and Canada and Australia.  Big countries, ample resources, and if they play it right – not sure they will, mind you – they’ll do fine whatever.  But Europe, afraid so.  Those of us who weren’t bankrupt anyway.
 
But it won’t be the Russians who’ve defeated us.   We Europeans must be the first countries in history to have been so comprehensively defeated  by our own information warriors.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 30 2026 14:40 utc | 4

Massive missile attack on Belgorod as we speak.  How does Ukraine still have missiles?  Why are they so hard to detect? 

Posted by: bored | Aug 30 2026 15:03 utc | 5

  • Bravo à l’Empire US, désintégrer cet immense station d’essence qui ne sert à rien, sinon a engraisser ses oligarques, aucun apport sur la race humaine, que des armes pour tuer,,,

Posted by: Moustapha | Aug 30 2026 15:10 utc | 6

I’m surely not the only one who has noticed that shortly after Radcliffe’s visit in Moscow, a large number of government flights Moscow <-> Novosibirsk can be tracked on FR24, possibly to other cities as well. It seems that the planes land for a brief time only and then head back again.
What’s going on there?

Posted by: Verdant | Aug 30 2026 15:14 utc | 7

More like hundreds of thousands. We’re living in the most expensive and well-manned information war in history. I’ve long since lost count of the number of NATO units deployed for information war and that’s even before starting on the press and internet. It’s massive. Compared with the information war we saw in Iraq 2, or even in Libya, this one’s totaler Krieg and it carries all before it. 

Whatever else happens the Ukraine war is one for the history books in its 24/7 total news coverage.  Its straight out of 1984, and the best part is so many otherwise smart and discerning people accept their two minute hates and we were always at war with Russia catechisms completely.   This antithesis of freedom is the celebration of freedom.
 
Literally freedom is slavery has been implemented. Its is literally crazy.  I am seriously impressed.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2026 15:18 utc | 8

@Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2026 15:18 utc | 8

Literally freedom is slavery has been implemented. Its is literally crazy.  I am seriously impressed.

That was the objective of the 2020 obedience training event.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2026 15:26 utc | 9

Folks still repeating the nonsensical notion that Ratcliffe went to Moscow to propose face to face 3-way peace negotiations. Clearly that was something that could have been done on the phone, as has happened before.
 
That story was leaked as a distraction for the masses, surprising that some here give it any credence. Clearly whatever was discussed was something that needed an ultra secure forum.
 
How about this speculation? The CIA advised Russia that Trump will be gone after the mid-terms, either voluntarily or via a coup. 

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Aug 30 2026 15:27 utc | 10

@ Fool Me Twice | Aug 30 2026 15:27 utc | 10
 
You mean the CIA rat flew to Moscow to pre-announce to the Russians another CIA Dallas event?

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2026 15:34 utc | 11

You mean the CIA rat flew to Moscow to pre-announce to the Russians another CIA Dallas event?
 
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2026 15:34 utc | 11
 
I doubt it will come to that. Recall that Nixon left voluntarily, Watergate was just the pretext. Rather than face a circus of impeachment and/or 25th amendment proceedings Trump will resign and the family gets to keep the billions they have obtained from their influence peddling and extortion schemes.

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Aug 30 2026 15:45 utc | 12

*** I’ve long since lost count of the number of NATO units deployed for information war and that’s even before starting on the press and internet. ***
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 30 2026 14:40 utc | 4
 
I think the general model for any issue that is truly consequential, 10-20% agree, 10-20% oppose and 60-80% will trade a little something just to be left alone. During the Clinton Presidency the message became more important than the truth with rewards being realized especially with the “low information” middle. If the consequence seems minimal, the low information middle doesnt care. Resultingly the government blob doesnt care. Truth stopped mattering. 
 
Over time, governments deveoped a toolbox with foreign policy being in the bullseye of the do not care sweetspot. So here we are. 3 million dead and nobody really cares. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 15:45 utc | 13

Ratcliff went to Moscow to provide cover for Burnham et als to escape the Kiev 35th aniversary before Myla, etc. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 15:50 utc | 14

Over time, governments deveoped a toolbox with foreign policy being in the bullseye of the do not care sweetspot. So here we are. 3 million dead and nobody really cares. 
 
Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 15:45 utc | 13

Indeed.  I think that one could add in all wars by the US and perhaps other countries in their wars since 1984 and the Grenada invasion.
 
I think Russia has been trying to find that sweet spot too since 2022. But that has been difficult as the results of its foreign policy has been evident to many of the low information middle.  Ukraines strikes have seen to that, but I would wager Ukraines attacks force more of the middle to the support side.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2026 15:52 utc | 15

During the Clinton Presidency the message became more important than the truth 
 
Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 15:45 utc | 13
 

 
The post-truth paradigm has become a subject of inquiry.
 

Post-truth assertion and assertoric competence
 
Journal of Pragmatics
Date: October 2021
Pages: 179-191
 
Abstract
 
This contribution looks into the illocutionary act of assertion which takes part in weaving contemporary digital-age narratives through the lens of Frankfurt’s notion of bullshit from two perspectives, the speaker’s and the hearer’s, as they evaluate assertoric competence for different public asserters. It focuses on the action component of asserting, which is an act of engaging the speaker’s responsibility, and attempts to problematize bullshit assertions through the notion of fact-checking. The discussion is conducted using examples of bullshit assertions performed in strategic interaction contexts – contexts in which speakers pursue a strategic goal and attempt to anticipate the acts of their interlocutors, as speakers and hearers work to project a particular social image of themselves.
 
Introduction
 
The everlasting interest for the speech act of assertion is enough to speak for itself – assertion represents (non-exhaustively) a significant way to impart information, to claim or display adherence to a belief, to take responsibility for something’s being the case, to project oneself as possessing a particular set of qualities. The voluminous body of assertion studies typically involves considerations about the norms that govern the issuance of assertive acts (e.g. Jary, 2010; Lackey, 2008; Williamson, 2000), investigating the nature of the assertive act (Brown and Cappelen, 2011), the rationale of their performance (Pagin, 2009, 2011) or their philosophical significance (Goldberg, 2015). Largely due to the nature of the act itself, the difficulty to cut a clear definition of the assertoric practice has led to the predominance of versions that highlight the epistemic competence to perform assertions (embodied in its strongest version by the knowledge norm for asserting, for example). Some have questioned the utility of such approaches, arguing that performances that ostensibly violate the preferred norm do not differ in any significant way from performances that do not (e.g. Cappelen, 2011). Indeed, as a content-act, which involves a description of a state of affairs, assertion is assessable in terms of truth and falsity; further, as demonstrated by Moore’s paradox, it is an expression of the speaker’s belief, or at least expresses a purported belief. Assertion, thus, flirts with the notions of truth, belief and knowledge in significant ways, both at the performance end and the reception end: the speaker has at least the aim of saying something which is true/ correct/ the expression of their belief/ belief the speaker wishes to be associated with them; conversely, the hearer assesses the performance in terms of truth and reliability.
 
The past decade has amplified a tendency which can be dated back to the end of the 90s – the post-truth era, which Keyes defined as the time when the boundaries between truth and lies become gradually erased (Keyes, 2004). …
 
continues ==> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378216621002691
 

Posted by: too scents | Aug 30 2026 16:03 utc | 16

Telegram channels are reporting continuous attacks on Kyiv, as well as on Lviv and Odesa.
Kyiv has been under attack for 102 hours now, and a new offensive has developed in Zaporizhzhia.
At 5:45 PM, I am receiving reports of a new wave of attacks on Kyiv…

Posted by: genesiss | Aug 30 2026 16:09 utc | 17

As English Outsider, Neofeudalfuture & Norwegian have alluded to, the total colonisation of the Western mind by the Intel-media-nexus in relation to the NATO-Russian war has manifested a new level of hypnotic influence & control.
 
That’s possobly why most of us don’t see the CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Russia for what it truly is, the historical analogue of Third Reich intelligence alumni Walter Schellenberg or Reinhard Gehlen landing in Moscow for a chat with NKVD head Lavrenty Beria.

Posted by: FakeBelieve | Aug 30 2026 16:16 utc | 18

But it won’t be the Russians who’ve defeated us. We Europeans must be the first countries in history to have been so comprehensively defeated by our own information warriors.
 
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 30 2026 14:40 utc | 4
You vastly overestimate the Zio Imperialist propaganda when it is in fact at its weakest.  Stop scrolling and go speak to some of these Euro wage slaves, you call peasants. 
You’d be surprised.  They’re just as up on things as you, beautiful soul.  The issue is, again and again, what the fuck are we to do about it?  If you can’t answer that question, don’t insult the imagined ignorance of the wage slaves. 
You’re pessimism is frankly a prognosis.  You expect the Zio Imperialists to win at the point they are clearly weaker than at any point in living memory.  
Why would anyone take you seriously?  Why would any worker in his right mind give such pessimism any serious thought?  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 30 2026 16:20 utc | 19

So here we are. 3 million dead and nobody really cares. 
 
Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 15:45 utc | 13
Speak for yourself, sad sack.  
Is it demoralized petty bourgeois boomer day at the bar today?  
Stop crying in your beer, you miserable old hags.  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 30 2026 16:23 utc | 20

Re: Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2026 15:18 utc | 8

Whatever else happens the Ukraine war is one for the history books in its 24/7 total news coverage.  Its straight out of 1984, and the best part is so many otherwise smart and discerning people accept their two minute hates and we were always at war with Russia catechisms completely.   This antithesis of freedom is the celebration of freedom. Literally freedom is slavery has been implemented. Its is literally crazy.  I am seriously impressed.

8
 
Don’t kid yourself, most people never think about the Russia-Ukraine never ending conflict, and don’t care about it either.
 
 They haven’t been “brainwashed” – they don’t care.
 
 
 
 
 

Posted by: Julian | Aug 30 2026 16:35 utc | 21

*** Largely due to the nature of the act itself, the difficulty to cut a clear definition of the assertoric practice has led to the predominance of versions that highlight the epistemic competence to perform assertions (embodied in its strongest version by the knowledge norm for asserting, for example). ***
Posted by: too scents | Aug 30 2026 16:03 utc | 16
 
Will you have ranch, balsamic vinegarette or blue cheese dressing with that?
 
 
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 30 2026 16:23 utc | 20
 
Your triggering by my assertoric practice and challenge to my epistemic competance to perform assertions is noted. Now you please have a nice day. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 16:39 utc | 22

Re: Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Aug 30 2026 15:27 utc | 10

How about this speculation? The CIA advised Russia that Trump will be gone after the mid-terms, either voluntarily or via a coup.

 
An interesting theory. Perhaps it’s even true.
 
Certainly JD Vance would be happy to step up – but only in 2027.
 
Stepping up in 2026 would allow him only 1 Presidential Election.
 
But, if it is true, I’m sure the Russian response would have been – “We’ll believe it when we see it.”
 
 

Posted by: Julian | Aug 30 2026 16:41 utc | 23

I have recorded a ride along video on the UK ‘conscription’ and ‘war’ with Russia. We will release it Monday.
 
Key points that most sleepers don’t see as a possibility:
 
1. Expect a UK False Flag attack soon, likely kids will be killed too [to be more inflammatory], with drone “made in Moscow”.
[maybe with a pristine passport with a ‘Vlad’ picture near the explosion? 😆]
2. Media and war hawks to conduct fake media blitz and ‘manufacture consent’ for the ‘war to end all wars’!
3. Sacrifices to be made, we are all in this together, the conflict can be won quickly, soldiers home soon. Folllowed by the reality check, of a meat mincing machine, and they will need the women too, for a final offensive before victory.
4. In transit new immigrants hired informally as press gangs for indigenous whites to be picked up off the streets.
5. Both nations will be practising white male slaughter by drones. A precursor that is far more foreboding for all civilians, once this tech is perfected and directed towards the ‘divergent’ populations of the world.

 
https://x.com/themarketsniper/status/2094018211150790902

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2026 16:41 utc | 24

If UK does a false flag, Russia should help them out by blowing up major ports in UK with Poseidon torps. You want a false flag? There you go…

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2026 16:51 utc | 25

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 16:39 utc |
 
    Writing 101. Course book, Strunk’s Elements of Style.  “Write Plain”.
Fail.

Posted by: kupkee | Aug 30 2026 16:52 utc | 26

Ok let’s speculate…. RatCliff>? Let’s say he was summoned, since the real-estate guy and the twink were not taken seriously. “Come get your bodies, or they are going into the incinerator….you have have 3 days.”
While we are at it, you HAVE crossed a red line and we are going to open up the floodgates. Any last requests (said with a grin)? ……. …………….. …. ……………. …………….
Ok good. No you will not get a single one of those concessions and now that the gloves are off, nothing is off limits for us…… Clearly that’s fine with you since you have exercised very little restraint in attacking us in our home. Best of luck, now GTFO and take your surveillance gear and the frozen corpses with you!

Posted by: Chevrus | Aug 30 2026 17:22 utc | 27

Sure is amusing to see EVERYONE swallowing the ‘Official’ bullshit and pontificating endlessly upon it. 
Just goes to show how ingrained ‘ Doublethink’ is at this point.
Once again, people who know that lying liars always lie, run with the official narrative that Ratface Ratcliffe flew to Moscow to tell the Russians……what, exactly?
A swap, Iran for Ukraine? Don’t mess with NAFO or you Russkie commies will be sorry? Let’s get Putin, ‘elensky and Rubio to sit down together and jaw-jaw?  Come on, let’s have a Cease-fire?
Gee, do you think everyone is looking tbru the wrong end of the telescope, again?
What if Moscow TOLD the U.S. to fly someone to Moscow they can actually talk to, for a change? And do it quickly if the U.S. wants to avoid WW3? I think there is a very strong possibility that Ratface was SUMMONED for a face to face “Come To Jesus” meeting and was TOLD, something along the lines of, “If you so much as lift a finger to ‘help’ the UK and Coalition of the Willing, your ‘assets’ will also be struck, cuz we got plenty of non-nuke Oreshnik’s and Sarmats to go ’round.
The West has become, to paraphrase Dostoevsky, the ultimate derangement – they have been lying for so long and had those lies reflected back to them, that they forgot it has been a lie all along. 
Tney truly believe they can murder Russian children on the beach and in their beds, forever, with impunity.
I believe Ratface got told in no uncertain terms what is coming. While he winged back home, Russia began hitting one huge ammo warehouse, in civilian areas, after the other.
Kiev is now under 24 hour bombardment. The MOD just announced that energy infrastructure is about to join the party.
Remember waaay back at the start of the SMO, when Putin remarked, ‘We haven’t even started yet…”?
Seems to me the Russians have finally cinched the saddles and gotten their boots on and are finally ready to start ridin’.
Does any of tbis make any sense to all y’all?
Because the “Official” narrative sure doesn’t
Not to me.
But, Hey – I could be wrong. Who am I and what do I know anyway. 
Just my 2 cents
Blessings
Xx
L
 
 
 
 

Posted by: Lauren | Aug 30 2026 17:26 utc | 28

Don’t kid yourself, most people never think about the Russia-Ukraine never ending conflict, and don’t care about it either.
 
 They haven’t been “brainwashed” – they don’t care.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Posted by: Julian | Aug 30 2026 16:3 utc | 21

Yeah they dont care but they’ll do it to be left alone. That’s the sweet spot of foreign policy indifference by the public that allows for at least incorrect at most ghoulish decisions made by our largely self appointed rulers.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2026 17:31 utc | 29

I could easily forsee the english channel turning hot, similar to the Hormouz straits.
 
Could get very messy if so.
 
Lose lose rather than win win for the west.
 
Mines anybody  ?

Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 30 2026 17:32 utc | 30

I could easily forsee the english channel turning hot, similar to the Hormouz straits.
 
Could get very messy if so.
 
Lose lose rather than win win for the west.
 
Mines anybody ?
 
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 30 2026 17:32 utc | 30

That’s an interesting idea and could be applied to waters closer to Russian ports.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 30 2026 17:34 utc | 31

Posted by: Lauren | Aug 30 2026 17:26 utc | 28
Makes a lot more sense than anything else I’ve heard or read.

Posted by: Merv Ritchie | Aug 30 2026 17:49 utc | 32

I too belive he was summond .. to be read the riot act. Was my first thought.

Posted by: blueswede | Aug 30 2026 18:28 utc | 33

If Ratcliffe was summoned, why did he take a C-17 with him? Was there nothing else available, not even the CIA’s own executive jet fleet?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 30 2026 18:43 utc | 34

Posted by: Moustapha | Aug 30 2026 15:10 utc | 6
——————
Superbe description de l’Empire US.

Posted by: scc | Aug 30 2026 18:58 utc | 35

So did Ratcliffe just invite his friends to party at his enemy’s house?

Posted by: Avtonom | Aug 30 2026 18:58 utc | 36

The idea of Ratcliff being summoned sounds not bad. However, how and whom did they submit that request to? Should be a person (i) taking the Russians serious, (ii) being in a high enough position and (iii) understanding the seriousness of the situation.
For (ii) – there aren’t many persons. For (i) and (iii) there is one person who tends to follow the last person he was talking to. Did Putin call Trump while Rat was in Riga boarding his plane?
 

Posted by: BG13 | Aug 30 2026 19:00 utc | 37

Bored @ 5
 
Because it is not that massive and because it is wholly orchestrated from Langley. Making just enough “Boom!” to fool the idiots is the only objective. That objective can be achieved

Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 30 2026 19:16 utc | 38

sono andati a supplicare i russi di non attaccare la britannia e chi sa cosa hanno offerto in cambio. ma penso che questo era ultimo avvertimento agli inglesi.. la prossima volta riceveranno gli oresnik

Posted by: sicario | Aug 30 2026 19:23 utc | 39

Did the Ratcliffe visit set off the bombing we are hearing Russia is doing to Ukraine?
 
If the reports are true that Ukraine is going down for the count, what does a surrender by Z mean?
 
This is not a Z battle but a Trump one just like Iran……..It is just our little civilization war, get over it Donnie!

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 30 2026 19:24 utc | 40

Am I the only one who saw the video of Ratcliff’s motorcade? 3 big black suburbans and 1 white van. That’s what was on the C17. He also had Russian police escort.
 

Posted by: Leroy | Aug 30 2026 19:36 utc | 41

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 30 2026 16:20 utc | 19
 
Ahenobarbus – take a look at this clip from the early days of the SMO.
 
U.S. Is in a Proxy War With Russia: Panetta
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWu7cPPVv0
 
You think Panetta and his fellow hawks ever thought there was a chance of victory for the West in this war?  I don’t.  There was never a prospect of military victory and hopes of defeating Russia in the sanctions war, our main line of attack, were never realistic.  Even the dumbest could see the sanctions war wasn’t working after a few weeks or so.
 
It was a scam, start to finish, that Ukrainian war.  What we were told was that the Russians mounted an unprovoked attack.   “Unprovoked” was the term always used by the politicians when talking of that war.  Still is, most times.  But as you’ll know, we provoked the Russians to take pre-emptive military action so we could impose the sanctions we hoped would destroy them.
 
An uglier scam than that because we were sacrificing our proxies in order to kill Russians but without putting our own forces in the firing line, or not officially.  The chickenhawk war, we must term it, because that’s what it was for us who were never at risk.
 
The scam’s backfired.  The sanctions war has, on balance, given the Russians a boost.  As said above, it’s accelerated our decline in Europe.   But the comment to which you were kind enough to reply is more about the way we were scammed rather than the scam itself.
 
I’m getting no indication, by the way, that most In Europe have seen through the scam.  None I know personally in Germany or England have.  Maybe some elsewhere in Europe?  Seems unlikely.  The Americans are more savvy and I think quite a lot over there have, but the comment was about Europe.  The dumbass continent, is what those Americans sometimes call us and they’re not far off, looking at what’s coming our way.
 
On “Zio”, I think you’re off track if you believe the Israelis were main players in this war.  Bennet did try his hand at negotiation early on, as Panetta may be mentioning, but that didn’t make the Israelis players of any significance.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 30 2026 19:39 utc | 42

3 big black suburbans and 1 white van

Posted by: Leroy | Aug 30 2026 19:36 utc | 41
 
Yup, vehicles capable of carrying the mortal remains of deceased senior CIA and possibly NATO personnel…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 30 2026 19:55 utc | 43

Did the Ratcliffe visit set off the bombing we are hearing Russia is doing to Ukraine? ***
 
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 30 2026 19:24 utc | 40
 
Delayed it one day. Explosions of military hardware in a residential neighborhood while the 35th Aniversary was full swing would have been bad optics. They used a c17, like any good magician would, to draw your attention away frow what they were doing to something shiny. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 19:56 utc | 44

Thank you to all for your very tboughtful responses! This bar has amazingly erudite clientele, for sure! 
As to how contact was initiated to get Ratface in the air, who knows….the Russians never break OpSec, so it may be years until we know the real story. 
As to why a C17 – well, Ratface needed his little motorcade/security detail for the 45 minute commute into Moscow proper. The real stumper is why did Ratface stop in Lithuania? Since all these fools know is kibuki theater psyops, it was probably just performative vis-a-vis the ‘Official Narrative’ of laying down the law as regards the Baltic chihuahuas.
IF Russia really did light a fire under their @sses – it makes sense to throw the vehicles in a Globemaster, grab your toothbrush and shaver and strap in. If it was up to me, I’d tell them to be here in 12 hours because our strikes are going to begin shortly afterwards, whether you show up or not!! 
Another element that bolsters all this suppostition is Escalation to Descalate or premptive deconfliction.
Slightly off-topic — 
Anyone else see that OSINT about that brand new, uber cheap jet powered drone/cruise missle w/ a 267 kg warhead, 5000k range?
Evidently, Russia has been cranking them out like pancakes and has 1,000’s of them ready to go…..Yikes! This could just be Ukr/MI6 FUD.
BUT – the Iskander 1000 IS ready to start hitting targets in Kiev and beyond.
So, get your popcorn and a refreshing beverage and settle into the comfy chair -because tbings are going to very quickly get very interesting.

  1. Because 404 is quickly sliding into the abyss of Time. Lenin’s qoute about history is ringing true-  “There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen”

Blessings
L
 
 

Posted by: Lauren | Aug 30 2026 19:57 utc | 45

I dunno, how many times does a CIA director take his own vehicle fleet with him on a foreign visit?
 
Is the local US embassy fleet not good enough? Has the local embassy fleet been compromised somehow? Presumably if anyone would know it would be the CIA…
 
After all, they might well have done the compromising themselves…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 30 2026 20:03 utc | 46

I figured the motorcade was just an ego trip. Nothing more. The reason for the visit? I have no idea. It doesn’t make sense to me.

Posted by: Leroy | Aug 30 2026 20:09 utc | 47

@Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 30 2026 20:03 utc | 46
 
Wasn’t the US vehicles in Moscow observed with Russian US Embassy plates? 

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 30 2026 20:12 utc | 48

Not sure about the plates. They were moving quickly. 

Posted by: Leroy | Aug 30 2026 20:28 utc | 49

Just watched the video again. The plates did not look like US plates.

Posted by: Leroy | Aug 30 2026 20:32 utc | 50

As long as there are enough sheeple in europe to accept what’s going on with their governments support towards ‘Ukraine’ then the conflict will inevitably come directly to them 
 
the war is clearly widening 

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 30 2026 20:42 utc | 51

Dima – 20 mins – an hour ago
 
(7) ENERGY WAR Declared🚨 Ukraine Strikes First💥 Sumy Defense Collapse⚔️ Military Summary 2026.08.30 – YouTube

Posted by: Don Firineach | Aug 30 2026 20:47 utc | 52

Dialogue Works
 
Stanislav Krapivnik: Russia Intensifies Kiev Strikes – MASSIVE Secondary Explosions Rock Capital

 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uI1KrpFVb6c

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2026 20:57 utc | 53

EU economy is collapsing. That means less money for Kiev. Zelensky wants to funds to today from late-2027.

 
If they force more money for Kiev then the EU will just be destroyed faster.

 

EU is in WINTER PANIC. Gas storage is down to just 64%, while Germany sits barely above 50%. Gas prices have MORE THAN DOUBLED this year, topping €66/MWh. Brussels dumped Russian energy. Now Europeans may pay the PRICE.
 

https://x.com/GlobalDiss/status/2094151675976024068

 

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 30 2026 21:04 utc | 54

unimperator: yes, let’s hope EU breaks. It’ll be painful either way but political collapse (EU) and economic collapse seem unavoidable, so they better come fast. Was happy today that the Icelanders did the right thing.

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 21:20 utc | 55

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 30 2026 16:20 utc | 19
You vastly overestimate the Zio Imperialist propaganda when it is in fact at its weakest.  Stop scrolling and go speak to some of these Euro wage slaves, you call peasants. You’d be surprised.  They’re just as up on things as you, beautiful soul.  The issue is, again and again, what the fuck are we to do about it?  If you can’t answer that question, don’t insult the imagined ignorance of the wage slaves. You’re pessimism is frankly a prognosis.  You expect the Zio Imperialists to win at the point they are clearly weaker than at any point in living memory.  Why would anyone take you seriously?  Why would any worker in his right mind give such pessimism any serious thought?  
I must take exception there at least as far as my countrymen here in supplicant Oz are concerned and I’m pretty confident it would be similar in all western country’s, they are utterly and completely infected with the propaganda spewed forth by the TV everyday, period. The end. No debate at all needed. The fact is they just believe what the TV says. They do not think, they do not question or try to hear another version, the TV tells all and it is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help them god, period. You say otherwise and the looks of heresy and disbelief are astounding and you cannot convince them otherwise, at all, period. Sound familiar Mooner’s?

Posted by: Bearish Panda | Aug 30 2026 21:35 utc | 56

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 30 2026 19:39 utc | 42

It was a scam, start to finish, that Ukrainian war. What we were told was that the Russians mounted an unprovoked attack. “Unprovoked” was the term always used by the politicians when talking of that war. Still is, most times. But as you’ll know, we provoked the Russians to take pre-emptive military action so we could impose the sanctions we hoped would destroy them.

All of this is true. But starting the war put assets of great value (to US capital!) at risk. I still find it hard to square these two facts. Yes, Washington wanted this war, and that’s largely independent of the government / party / president,although Team Biden was particularly invested. They had the means to get their war, and they’ve been working on that goal for a long time, longer than 2014 but quite visible since at least then.
 
There’s this. But what about the biolabs, the fertile soil, the industrial infrastructure and the natural resources? I understand that nobody in Washington gives a shit about Ukrainians but with each village liberated by the Russian Army, more of those assets permanently disappear. (There is a theory on this: US and Russian capital are in on this together. I see the logic but I don’t agree.)
 
This leaves me with only two possible answers:

  1. They genuinely hoped that Ukraine would “win”. Not necessarily militarily but a quagmire bad enough for “regime change” through election would already have been fine. And if the planned Ukrainian attack (that the Russian SMO forestalled) wouldn’t have done the trick, then the “sanctions from hell” will keep Russia busy with itself for a while. I know that Russian observers were positively surprised with the little effect of the 2022 sanctions.
  2. Or, if Washington knew that the Ukraine operation was doomed and that Russia would go to war to prevent NATO membership (a policy clearly announced by Russia and by US diplomats for a long time) — in this case, I can only infer that the crisis is so bad that the Ukrainian investments are to be written off. US Middle East policy points in a similar direction: they stir up chaos, intentionally as the new ground on which everything takes place.

I’m getting no indication, by the way, that most In Europe have seen through the scam.  None I know personally in Germany or England have.  Maybe some elsewhere in Europe?”

I know a few people who have. But I’d never bring up any of this in polite society. It’s the kind of topic where you drop a hint, get a knowing nod by someone who drops another hint before you get talking one-on-one. (This, by the way, is standard prodecure in totalitarian societies.) Normal people, regardless of intelligence / education, have no idea what we’re talking about here. It sounds crazy, stupid and dangerous to them. An entire subcontinent has been dumbed down for at least one generation, it’s quite something. I’d like to say it can’t go on like this forever but actually I’m not sure about that. This is why my hope is resting on China: the advent of the other super power is what can hopefully keep another in check.

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 21:39 utc | 57

Zelensky wanted the press coverage of Russia hitting apartments:
 
>https://www.npr.org/2025/04/12/g-s1-59428/ukraine-drones-russia-war
 
>KYIV, Ukraine — In the courtyard of a group of ordinary-looking Kyiv apartment blocks, a stairway leads down to a small basement apartment.
 
Three big dogs run out into the hallway when newcomers arrive. Inside a main room, three people sit hunched over desks.
 
Around them, tables are laden with parts and small hand tools like pliers and tweezers. Boxes of tiny plastic propellers sit on the floor and wall shelves are stacked with carbon-fiber frames.
 
This is the workshop for a secret drone-making operation. It turns out about 100 attack drones for Ukraine’s military every month.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 30 2026 21:54 utc | 58

Larry Johnson is reporting on Nima’s show that Russia attacked Ukraine for 80 straight hours.
 

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 30 2026 22:05 utc | 59

The Nato awac squawk 7700 is commonplace; highest number of flight hours in entire airforce, over 50yrs old planes!, plagued with mechanical failure, no longer reliable awacs, poor Boeing assembly problems, old fleet, pilot errors, turbulence, replacement parts difficult to source, birds, weather, misidentified, maintenance-intensive, had transponders turned off, atc miscommunication overworked, collision with refueling tanker, crosswinds. soon to be replaced by Globaleye gothenburg möinlycke.
Flying so close to battlefields, coincidently high value targeting is deemed collateral damage accidents, especially within international waters 

Posted by: Time will tell | Aug 30 2026 22:14 utc | 60

I would appreciate some informed comments with regard to –
 
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2019049831/documentary-on-death-of-new-zealand-aid-worker-in-ukraine
 

Documentary on death of New Zealand aid worker in Ukraine
Nine To Noon31 August 2026

A new documentary finds it almost certain that New Zealand aid worker Andrew Bagshaw was murdered by Russian soldiers. Andrew was killed in Ukraine in 2023 but his family’s quest for his death to be recognised a war crime is yet to happen. A postmortem showed he and British volunteer Christopher Parry were killed by gunshots. A British coroner found “some evidence” of involvement by the Wagner Group – a Russian-state funded private military company. The documentary is from true crime investigator Bryan Bruce.

Posted by: tucenz | Aug 30 2026 22:14 utc | 61

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 21:39 utc | 57
 
There are similarities between the Ukrainian conflict and that in Iran. In both cases the USA and allies relied on information from expats and the elite oligarch/Epstein classes. These people have a distorted view of their own country (just as did Hillary Clinton with her “deplorables”). It is in fact just sloppy intelligence work, where lack of real cultural understanding and language skills means that they only hear voices that reinforce their own views and wishes.
 
There was a time when the UK (MI6) were the spymasters and I suspect that the USA relied on this UK skill.  I realised that the UK skill set had disappeared back in the Iraq conflict – cannot quite remember the event but it was in Basra and it seemed clear to me then that the UK skill set had gone.  I think this skill set has further depleted and is now non-existent. The USA always deficient in language skills and with an attitude of exceptionalism was never likely to develop these skills, which essentially require the spy to go native and genuinely immerse themselves in the culture of the country. 
 
Yes it was just a novel but written by a smart observer. Read Kim the novel by Kipling to understand the British spy service in India/Afghanistan. However all the elements we still see today were there. Tibetan monks, Pashtun (Afghani traders), pedophilia (implied), Irish independence, were all there. The British enemy was Russia. My point is that it is not really still there. Perhaps it is the loss of colonial outposts that has done the damage.

Posted by: watcher | Aug 30 2026 22:21 utc | 62

I know a few people who have. But I’d never bring up any of this in polite society. It’s the kind of topic where you drop a hint, get a knowing nod by someone who drops another hint before you get talking one-on-one. (This, by the way, is standard prodecure in totalitarian societies.) Normal people, regardless of intelligence / education, have no idea what we’re talking about here. It sounds crazy, stupid and dangerous to them. An entire subcontinent has been dumbed down for at least one generation, it’s quite something. I’d like to say it can’t go on like this forever but actually I’m not sure about that. This is why my hope is resting on China: the advent of the other super power is what can hopefully keep another in check.
Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 21:39 utc | 57

IIRC, Konami, you experienced life in the former Deutsche Demokratische Republik. For this reason I find your contributions very interesting and valuable.  Here in the U.S., it’s difficult for me to tell what the average citizen thinks in terms of support for the fiascos in Iran and Ukraine but what I would observe is that part of the support for Trump in his second campaign was because he campaigned on getting out of Ukraine and not getting involved in other foreign wars, but instead on concentrating on domestic problems.  As we can easily observe all of those campaign promises were overt lies.  Now that kernel of support that got Trump elected has evaporated….Trump is as unpopular as any politician in U.S. history.  And, as the economic consequences of his perfidy become clearer, his popularity will suffer even more….Americans have not suffered from the effects of the actions of their politicians yet but we will for sure and soon.  Unfortunately for you folks, the suffering will be greater and sooner in the EU. 
 
I think that the Chinese hold a lot of winning cards right now…their culture has been led by people with more economic intelligence than the “leaders” in the west.  Instead of committing valuable resources to a destructive venture like conquest, the Chinese have built a trading empire like none other.  As I tell my friends, burning real resources in an attempt to steal the resources of other countries is much more expensive than just trading for them.  This is what the Chinese understand and what the west miserably fails at. Further, the BRICS and similar efforts are offering developing countries a significantly better deal than the shenanigans of the IMF etc…..between those developments and the alternatives to SWIFT that are being developed, the western powers seem on the decline because the Chinese model is operationally superior.  I certainly hope you are wrong about how dumbed down westerners have become, but I see no evidence of it…..

Posted by: Giuseppe | Aug 30 2026 22:23 utc | 63

Posted by: watcher | Aug 30 2026 22:21 utc | 62

There are similarities between the Ukrainian conflict and that in Iran. In both cases the USA and allies relied on information from expats and the elite oligarch/Epstein classes. These people have a distorted view of their own country (just as did Hillary Clinton with her “deplorables”). It is in fact just sloppy intelligence work, where lack of real cultural understanding and language skills means that they only hear voices that reinforce their own views and wishes.

Yes, all of that sounds alright. It means that US elites permanently overestimate the chances of their operations/wars. On top of that, there’s the fact that wars are good by themselves: the US empire cannot run on peace. (This is only partially about direct profits from arms production; there is much more than that.) Different track but similar process: the lies are eternal — no US / EU politician can come clean, as they are all sitting on iterations of institionalised lies.
 
Nonetheless, investing heavily for >20 years in Ukraine and then blowing it all up seems… costly. In particular because there have been ample opportunities to preserves those investments: Istanbul 2022 and especially Anchorage 2025 were IMO a lot about that.
 
Perhaps the great grift –funneling a lot of EUropean money into US hands– is enough to offset the losses.

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 22:33 utc | 64

They haven’t been “brainwashed” – they don’t care.Posted by: Julian | Aug 30 2026 16:35 utc | 21

 
But you have ‘stood with Ukraine’ for four years, so clearly somebody cares.
 
Is it only you?

Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 30 2026 22:35 utc | 65

Lets cut to the chase …….
 
If Russia decdes to attack england, in the next  weeks. Will amarica jump in and support england,
 
Or walk  away saying your on your own.
 
Russia would have asked ratcliffe that very question.  I suggest.

Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 30 2026 22:38 utc | 66

Julian @ 21 and ChatNPC @  65
 
Both can and are true at the same time.
 
Yes they have been brain washed  and no they dont care.

Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 30 2026 22:42 utc | 67

Giuseppe: yes, I experience the late DDR which was a totalitarian state but a really soft one. (Dictatorships that last more than one generation go through waves of oppression / relaxation.)
 
The good thing: any population, including US citizens or West Germans will get used to the new rules in no time 🙂 Already now >50% of Germans say that “you can freely voice your opinion”. That’s a realistic take, so progress. It should be the same all over EU, US, Canada, more pronounced in the bigger centers (France, UK, Germany).
 
Trump: I don’t think he matters much. Just like Biden didn’t make the policy, neither does Trump. The style has changed massively (especially if you compare Clinton, Obama, Biden, Trump) and it’s interesting to discuss why and how — but politically, the changes are minimal. I guess Trump represents the empire best right now.

I think that the Chinese hold a lot of winning cards right now

Gotta go, so my last comment is on this one: you’re using a very American metaphor here 🙂 Since Trump’s been in office, it is all over the place: “X has no cards”, “We have all the cards”, “showdown”, “play the man not the cards”. I say this because I believe that the Chinese mode of thinking is entirely different from this. Much less zero sum game, much more about division (trade), saving face and mutual gains. I may be naive but I currently believe that Beijing would *not* take the unipolar hegemon role even if they effortlessly could.

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 22:44 utc | 68

typo fix on German polls: >50% say they cannot freely voice their opinion — sorry!

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 22:46 utc | 69

psychohistorian | Aug 30 2026 22:05 utc | 59
 
That’s now 106+ hours.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 30 2026 22:51 utc | 70

*** I realised that the UK skill set had disappeared back in the Iraq conflict – cannot quite remember the event but it was in Basra and it seemed clear to me then that the UK skill set had gone. I think this skill set has further depleted and is now non-existent. ***
Posted by: watcher | Aug 30 2026 22:21 utc | 62
 
Mr. too scents pointed out why competance has evaporated. Look at what passes for scholarship:
 

Post-truth assertion and assertoric competence
 
Journal of Pragmatics
Date: October 2021
Pages: 179-191
 
Abstract
 This contribution looks into the illocutionary act of assertion which takes part in weaving contemporary digital-age narratives through the lens of Frankfurt’s notion of bullshit from two perspectives, the speaker’s and the hearer’s, as they evaluate assertoric competence for different public asserters.
***
Posted by: too scents | Aug 30 2026 16:03 utc | 16

 
My niece was at Columbia during the general period of time you noticed competance falling off the table. The more time spent in thought following anything to do with the Frankfurt school, the less the student will be capable of grasping objective reality (a construct). At some point the student’s incapacity goes parabolic. This is the basis for bonkerism.
 
All of these educational products flooded the foreign service, intelligence and diplomatic beaurocracies. So the missing skill set was being actively disregarded because os systemic oppression, lacked assertoric competance or whatever other bonkerism justification could have been concatenated. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 22:51 utc | 71

That’s now 106+ hours.
 
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 30 2026 22:51 utc | 70
 
That’s 106 hours of epistemic reality right there. Longer than the hangover from the 35th Aniversity party. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 30 2026 22:58 utc | 72

re: tucenz | Aug 30 2026 22:14 utc | 61
 
This interview was on NZ state radio. The “documentary” was state funded, NZ On Air and will be shown on the main state channel TV1 probably in primetime – how the narrative is fed to the masses lacking in critcal thinking.
There might be some pushback but there will be no overt recognition of contrary views.
Soon after the start of the SMO Russia started banning various NZ ers (for good reason!)
 
28 June  2024
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/520782/russia-bans-another-36-new-zealanders-from-entering-borders

Russia has banned a further 36 New Zealanders from entering its borders.

Among them are journalists, scholars, defence personnel and public servants, as well as a number of mayors; Tory Whanau in Wellington, Kirsten Wise in Napier, Paula Southgate in Hamilton, Nick Smith in Nelson and Neil Holdom in New Plymouth.

In a statement, the Russian foreign ministry said it was in response to the sanctions New Zealand had placed on Russia, and entry for these people should be “closed in perpetuity”.

“Considering that Wellington does not intend to renounce its anti-Russia policy and continues to approve new sanctions, the work to update the Russian stop list will be continued,” it said.

This was the fourth list of its kind, bringing the total number of banned individuals to 229.

The first list, released in April 2022, included all 120 members of the Parliament of the day, and Governor-General Cindy Kiro.

Further lists included senior executives at RNZ, Stuff and NZME, and the partner of then-prime minister Jacinda Ardern, Clarke Gayford.

 

Posted by: tucenz | Aug 30 2026 23:01 utc | 73

Massive missile attack on Belgorod as we speak.  How does Ukraine still have missiles?  Why are they so hard to detect? 
Posted by: bored | Aug 30 2026 15:03 utc | 5
 
Remember scud hunts in the Iraqi desert? The USA had complete air supremacy. They had satellites, E-3 joint stars and special forces on the ground and the iraqi’s were able to launch over 30 Scud missiles against the USA. Scuds are big missiles and needed to be fuelled before launching … it takes a convoy of vehicles to fuel and launch these things so it’s not a small footprint and they were operating in the open desert … no forests, tree lines, ravines or buildings to hide in and the USA couldn’t find a single one of them.
 
Now look a Ukraine. Forests, tree lines, farms villages. Their missiles are small by comparison and are solid fuelled so they can drive up to the launch site, fire up their missiles and be gone in minutes. About the only way your going to find them is to put eyes on them with a drone and follow it until they can get some sort of asset in the air to strike it.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 30 2026 23:16 utc | 74

Posted by: too scents | Aug 30 2026 16:03 utc | 16
Now let us translate into English from gobblydook
Post-truth assertion and assertoric competence (Propaganda today) Journal of Pragmatics (Using Propaganda) Abstract This contribution looks into the illocutionary act of assertion (oratory) which takes part in weaving contemporary digital-age narratives through the ( discusses ideas and information) and whether the person is deliberately lying to hide reality or is just gabbling on to make an impression. The listeners need to judge which is the real intent of the speaker.
But hey in the original you can impress grandma who doesn’t understand a word but thinks you are ever so clever.

Posted by: watcher | Aug 30 2026 23:23 utc | 75

Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 30 2026 22:38 utc | 66
 
I’m sure they’d want to but I doubt they can. They got their hands full in Iran and Russia has to have been watching the US movements during the Iran war.
 
It’s not like the USAF can send in strike aircraft into Russia and bomb shit. To send in a strike aircraft they need EW, AWACS, fighters and tankers. There may be a bottleneck in say tankers … or aircraft mechanics. They may need 2 -3 times the number of tankers in the air to operate in the Persian Gulf than they accounted for in February and who knows how much aviation fuel they have given their efforts to use their strategic oil reserves to keep the price of oil down.
 
Then there’s the question of air defence assets at NATO air bases.  So the question I ask is can the USA fight Russia and Iran at the same time and still defend Taiwan and even the US homeland?
 
Even then can the USAF even match the Russians on Russian turf? Russia’s air defence missiles out range USAF strike assets and if Iran can strike US air bases and drive the USA out of the gulf what are the chances can’t drive the USAF out of Europe. If the Russians crater runways at the same time as shooting down a few tankers what do their fancy F-35’s do? ditch in the Baltic? These US aircraft need special hangers with special equipment to keep them flying … I doubt they can operate off a highway for very long.
 
As I write this the USAF has started bombing Iran again. Given the timing I wonder if Ratcliffs trip to Moscow was to tell someone that if the USA has to come to the defence of Europe there is a demented man baby in control of the launch codes and not many conventional options left to the USA … obviously in other words but that’s the drift.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 30 2026 23:43 utc | 76

In response to

 That’s now 106+ hours.
Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 30 2026 22:51 utc | 70

 
Thanks for the update Karl.
When does surrender come, what does it look like and how does this effect the Iran theatre?
 
 
The price of oil is rising………..

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 30 2026 23:45 utc | 77

HB_Norica @ 76
Thanks for your comprehensive and very informative reply.  Kudos.
 
I’l add ther is no love lost between trump and england, and thats true in both directions.
Trumps an object of ridicule to nearly all brits.
 
To a mega egotist like trump, thats a red rag to a bull.

Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 30 2026 23:53 utc | 78

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 30 2026 23:16 utc | 74
 
Ultimately the best RUAF defense against AFU drone and missile strikes are hunting and destroying the fuel tanker trucks. After you get rid of most of them the drone launches will fizzle out gradually.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 31 2026 0:22 utc | 79

So nobody found interesting the RF 265 ktons vs AFU 55 ktons… @3
 
I have been mostly absent lately, might as well ….
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 31 2026 1:07 utc | 80

@45 Lauren.
 
Is the missile/drone you are referring to the one that goes by the suggestive name Dan-T?
 
https://ukrmedia.news/en/viyna/raketa-dan-t-kharakterystyky-rosiia-2027/

Posted by: Soviético | Aug 31 2026 1:28 utc | 81

Trump: I don’t think he matters much. Just like Biden didn’t make the policy, neither does Trump. The style has changed massively (especially if you compare Clinton, Obama, Biden, Trump) and it’s interesting to discuss why and how — but politically, the changes are minimal. I guess Trump represents the empire best right now.

I think that the Chinese hold a lot of winning cards right now

 
Gotta go, so my last comment is on this one: you’re using a very American metaphor here 🙂 Since Trump’s been in office, it is all over the place: “X has no cards”, “We have all the cards”, “showdown”, “play the man not the cards”.

Perhaps…..but when forced to play that kind of non-cooperative game, as the western powers seem to insist on, the Chinese do have advantages. Look, the so-called leaders in the EU and the US and NATO are openly corrupt and none of them seems to care about the welfare and/or wishes of their respective populaces. I agree that Trump is merely a convenient mouthpiece but consider this pattern….the Trump family is openly grifting using market manipulation to increase their wealth by billions of dollars…..in this respect we have a mirror image of the corruption in Ukraine. That said, there’s something like the end state of entropy looming for the West, and it’s a shame that the promise was wasted by venal parties.

 

 
I say this because I believe that the Chinese mode of thinking is entirely different from this. Much less zero sum game, much more about division (trade), saving face and mutual gains. I may be naive but I currently believe that Beijing would *not* take the unipolar hegemon role even if they effortlessly could.

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 22:44 utc | 68

Perhaps you are right and I infer that we have a similar view of the China approach vs. the western/US approach….to my observation China seems to want all of its trading partners to succeed and they have been pushed into a position of conflict because that’s the only model the west knows.  It makes no sense to me from a rational PoV to think in terms of polarity at all.  Larry Johnson wrote recently about the concept of multi-nodal relationships, a model where all nodes benefit from interconnections. https://sonar21.com/nodes-not-poles-why-the-new-geoeconomic-order-is-multinodal-not-multipolar/
In any case, thanks for the reply….we are living in interesting times.

Posted by: Giuseppe | Aug 31 2026 1:41 utc | 82

Larry Johnson claims that the reason Ratcliff took C17 to Moscow was to pick up remains of US soldiers fallen in Ukraine. Says C17 is used for this because it has refridgeration. Says US embassy in Moscows has more than enough cars and these are what was seen in videos.
 
No doubt Ratface had some things to say while bodies were being loaded.

Posted by: jared | Aug 31 2026 1:43 utc | 83

Additional to the long list of provocations leading up to and escalating this war: Browder, Skripal, Navalny, all leading to sanctions and the Browder scam resulting in the ersatz Magnitsky Act, for which I am confident every government that imposed sanction knows damn well that Browder is a fraud, including my own Canadian government. Lucy Komisar:
MSNBC killed reporter Ken Dilanian’s exposé of the Wm Browder-Magnitsky hoax. State Department knew about it.
https://www.thekomisarscoop.com/2024/12/msnbc-killed-reporter-ken-dilanians-expose-of-the-wm-browder-magnitsky-hoax-state-department-knew-about-it/

Posted by: nwwoods | Aug 31 2026 2:15 utc | 84

@80 Novato.

I found it interesting.
It serves as another basis for my somewhat maximalist calculations regarding Ukrainian casualties (and Russian casualties as well).

In my opinion, most calculations underestimate the number of casualties from the first year and a half of the war

Posted by: Soviético | Aug 31 2026 2:19 utc | 85

English Outsider | Aug 30 2026 14:40 utc | 4
EO,  – as usual – I enjoyed your post immensely.  You emphasize correctly the information war, and the huge effort, the huge Wurlitzer – which is employed by a virtuoso organists in the West. They play the tunes so skillfully, and so unisono that it is – for me at least – a sure sign that there is a very central, very small, very secret general staff of the information war.   
 
that info war will require a massive ‘climb-down’ sooner or later, and the same secretive infomafia will lead the charge. By that we will find out, who is who. Robert Kagan is perhaps the first such ‘musician’,  in my humble opinion. 

Posted by: fanto | Aug 31 2026 3:57 utc | 86

Larry Johnson claims that the reason Ratcliff took C17 to Moscow was to pick up remains of US soldiers fallen in Ukraine. Says C17 is used for this because it has refridgeration. Says US embassy in Moscows has more than enough cars and these are what was seen in videos. No doubt Ratface had some things to say while bodies were being loaded.
Posted by: jared | Aug 31 2026 1:43 utc | 83

I think that makes the most sense as there has been no significant talk about policy changes nor have Russia and Ukraine pulled back on their strikes, instead it has been keeping up with a trajectory of escalation.

Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 31 2026 4:17 utc | 87

@ English Outsider | Aug 30 2026 14:40 utc | 4
 
good commentary eo.. goes well with the transcript that juliania left of michael hudson interview with glenn diesen on the topic of money and who goes into debt and pays for the wars, right up to the present… you and others would enjoy the transcript and it will shed more light on who is paying for what.. 

Posted by: james | Aug 31 2026 4:45 utc | 88

Neutrality studies – 40 mins
 
NATO’s New Plans To Destroy Russia | Prof. Jeffrey Sachs

Posted by: Don Firineach | Aug 31 2026 5:39 utc | 89

The really alarming thing is the almost complete failure in the West to acknowledge just how close this whole thing may be to exploding exponentially.
 
Forget the comforting assumption that escalation will remain slow, linear and manageable. That is not how major conflicts necessarily develop. You can spend years climbing the ladder one rung at a time and then suddenly go through five rungs in a week.
 
Ukraine is conducting increasingly ambitious deep strikes. Russia is intensifying its missile campaign and hybrid activity. NATO states are becoming progressively more entangled. Threats that would once have sounded extraordinary have become part of the background noise.
 
Yet much of the Western discussion continues as though escalation is a tap that can simply be turned up and down at will.
 
That’s the dangerous assumption.
 
The biggest risk isn’t necessarily that either side wakes up one morning and decides it wants a Russia–NATO war. It’s that the accumulation of strikes, retaliation, covert activity, threats and counter-threats reaches a point where one event suddenly changes the character of the conflict.
 
We are considerably closer to that threshold than the public discourse in the West is prepared to admit.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 31 2026 5:39 utc | 90

I would appreciate some informed comments with regard to – https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2019049831/documentary-on-death-of-new-zealand-aid-worker-in-ukraine 
 

Documentary on death of New Zealand aid worker in UkraineNine To Noon31 August 2026

 

A new documentary finds it almost certain that New Zealand aid worker Andrew Bagshaw was murdered by Russian soldiers. Andrew was killed in Ukraine in 2023 but his family’s quest for his death to be recognised a war crime is yet to happen. A postmortem showed he and British volunteer Christopher Parry were killed by gunshots. A British coroner found “some evidence” of involvement by the Wagner Group – a Russian-state funded private military company. The documentary is from true crime investigator Bryan Bruce.

Posted by: tucenz | Aug 30 2026 22:14 utc | 61
 
Know nothing about the incident, but it does occur going to a war zone where foreign mercenaries are common would be rather dangerous. Would Wagner have shot them? Wouldn’t surprise. Is that what happened? Who knows? As aid workers what were they doing within range of Russian troops anyway? If they were aiding Ukrainian troops they would be targeted. If NZ news is as trustworthy as Australia, then they could have been killed by Ukraine but they would still frame it as Russian anyway. No doubt their families were devastated but expect it will remain in fog of war for the foreseeable future.

Posted by: Organic | Aug 31 2026 6:29 utc | 91

Ukraine is conducting increasingly ambitious deep strikes.
Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 31 2026 5:39 utc | 90
 
The strikes are conducted by the US gang not “Ukraine”. The US gang has had a project, running continuously since it was started by Truman in 1945, to destroy Russia and take all its stuff. Trump has recently articulated it so that nobody can misunderstand. “You’ve got it, we want it, we take it.” Surely even the Russians can understand that. If you are being attacked and you refuse to recognise who is attacking you, you will lose.

Posted by: acementhead | Aug 31 2026 6:48 utc | 92

There is a possibility that China has warned Russia about escalating the war because China’s foreign policy is to honor the political sovereignty of every state and to invest in that state so its citizens can afford to buy Chinese goods and services. China has learned that the people’s welfare and financial capacities depend on adequate infra structure and good educational opportunities. 
.
.
 China is interested in trade.. and war brings destructions that interrupts Trade.. I think the same Chinese foreign policy is holding Iran back.. 
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The bigger the destructive event the more likely wwIII. Its time for the bottom up to express their concern.. 

Posted by: snake | Aug 31 2026 7:36 utc | 93

Posted by: Konami | Aug 30 2026 21:39 utc | 57 
 
And English Outsider.
 
Dietrich Bonhoeffer describes it perfectly:
 
https://www.platoscave.org/2021/10/bonhoeffer-on-stupidity-entire-quote.html
 
Excerpt:
 
“The fact that the stupid person is often stubborn must not blind us to the fact that he is not independent. In conversation with him, one virtually feels that one is dealing not at all with a person, but with slogans, catchwords and the like that have taken possession of him. He is under a spell, blinded, misused, and abused in his very being. Having thus become a mindless tool, the stupid person will also be capable of any evil and at the same time incapable of seeing that it is evil. This is where the danger of diabolical misuse lurks, for it is this that can once and for all destroy human beings.”
 
As with Corona, with regard to Ukraine even well educated and smart people have lost the ability to understand the most simple facts.

Posted by: Cherrycoke | Aug 31 2026 7:38 utc | 94

There is a possibility that China has warned Russia about escalating the war because China’s foreign policy is to honor the political sovereignty of every state and to invest in that state so its citizens can afford to buy Chinese goods and services. China has learned that the people’s welfare and financial capacities depend on adequate infra structure and good educational opportunities.  China is interested in trade.. and war brings destructions that interrupts Trade.. I think the same Chinese foreign policy is holding Iran back.. 

Posted by: snake | Aug 31 2026 7:36 utc | 93
 
There is some truth to this. China has a very strong interest in stability, trade and functioning economies. Wars destroy infrastructure, impoverish populations, disrupt supply chains and ultimately reduce the number of people able to buy Chinese goods. So I can quite believe Beijing has used its influence to caution both Russia and Iran against uncontrolled escalation.
 
The problem for China is that this can only hold back strategic realities for so long. China can advise, pressure and offer economic incentives, but it cannot simply override what Moscow regards as its fundamental security interests or war aims. If Russia eventually concludes that escalation is necessary, whichI believe it now has, Chinese restraint may affect the timing of that escalation, but it probably cannot prevent it indefinitely.
 
In other words, China may be acting as a brake. A brake is not the same thing as a steering wheel.
 

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 31 2026 7:54 utc | 95

@Cherrycoke | Aug 31 2026 7:38 utc | 94
 
Very valuable contribution, thanks. I am also thankful to Konami (If you understand Norwegian language you will laugh here), English Outsider, Neofeudalfuture, FakeBelieve and others for the thoughts on propaganda and the effects on western minds.

Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 31 2026 8:00 utc | 96

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 31 2026 7:54 utc | 95
 
The strategic reality is thta for morew than 80 years the US has been continuously carrying out a campaign to destroy Russia and take all its stuff. The US could stop the Russians by confessing what they have been up to closing all their offensive bases outside the US and returning to the arms limitaions agreemnts that they withdrew from when they got the ‘super fuse’.
 
The US will not do that because they believe that they are very close to success.

Posted by: acementhead | Aug 31 2026 8:17 utc | 97

The US will not do that because they believe that they are very close to success.

Posted by: acementhead | Aug 31 2026 8:17 utc | 97
 
They are nowhere near success which is why they are flailing around with the likes of Ratcliffe

Posted by: Night Tripper | Aug 31 2026 8:31 utc | 98

Cherrycoke @  94
b should pin your comment to the top of every new post for at least the next month.

Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 31 2026 8:34 utc | 99

Snake
 
Dont you think China should put the brake on the perpitrator and not the victem ?
 
But of course, your american arent you.

Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 31 2026 8:45 utc | 100

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