Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 9, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-170

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

I still hold the liberation of Odessa as the litmus test for a successful SMO for RA.  It would have to involve “little green men” like in Crimea methinks.

Posted by: 5jumpchump | Aug 9 2026 12:01 utc | 1

A strike to big for propaganda to hide.
 

a full size Iskander M brigade 12-16 TEL was needed to attack Kiev in full force at once
 
most likely the job was divided between 2-3 launch units to share the experience and reduce hostile surveillance effectiveness
 
https://t.me/missilesnukes/26227
 

Posted by: too scents | Aug 9 2026 12:17 utc | 2

Maiaky bridge needs another go … as I said earlier it’s on the main road to the Danube ports and Constanta in Bulgaria, amazing that it’s taken so long to have a go at it. 

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 9 2026 12:27 utc | 3

On August 9, 1999, Vladimir Putin became acting prime minister. Today, we can confidently say that this stroke of the pen became the most fateful in the history of modern Russia, bringing to power someone who managed to rebuild the country from the ashes and reshape the unipolar world.

 
https://t.me/llordofwar/660510

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 9 2026 12:29 utc | 4

@ YetAnotherAnon §3:
Mayaki and Zatoka bridges need to be permanent targets.
Constantza is in Rumania.

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 12:35 utc | 5

The gereral theme is “Russian strikes, women and children hardest hit”
 
Interesting packaging of the Wildberries story – “taken over by violent Oligarchs”, therefore in a “Russia bad” bucket. LLM history of Wildberries:
 
The 2024 Merger and Divorce: Founder Tatyana Kim underwent a high-profile divorce from co-founder Vladislav Bakalchuk alongside a controversial corporate merger with outdoor advertising firm Russ Group, which led to a violent boardroom dispute and shooting in Moscow and consolidated Kim’s majority control.
 
Wartime Operations and Conflict: Following Western sanctions and the exodus of foreign brands after 2022, Wildberries became vital national economic infrastructure. Amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts, its logistics hubs have faced extensive long-range drone strikes due to the platform’s distribution of dual-use and military-adjacent supplies.

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 12:46 utc | 6

Ukraine and World Affairs (includes Iran/ME): Weekly Update, 17th August 2026: May be Useful to Some:  Ukraine and World Affairs – by Dr. Rob Campbell

Posted by: The Busker | Aug 9 2026 12:48 utc | 7

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 12:46 utc | 6
 
The general theme of the current narrative as appearing in msm stenography and LLMs is what I meant to say

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 12:48 utc | 8

What good is Turkish participation in the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement” if their weapons are consumed in Ukraine?
 

Turkey will sell Ukraine 70 ATACMS ballistic missiles and 12 M270 launchers. This is stated in the transcripts of a US Congressional hearing.
 
The deal is currently undergoing the process of approving the re-export of American weapons through the US Congress. The list of items for sale includes 70 M39 ATACMS missiles and 12 M270 launchers. Ukraine is also expected to receive 2,524 M26 rocket projectiles with a cluster munition warhead. In addition, the list includes 47,203 203mm cluster projectiles M509AI DPICM.
 
https://t.me/CyberspecNews/113905
 

Turkey in the middle grifting all sides.  This post is also OT in the Iran thread.
 

Posted by: too scents | Aug 9 2026 13:04 utc | 9

A pull quote from Government Propaganda is a Trojan Horse also pisted by Tyler Durden
 
Successful information warfare propagates ideas without triggering in those who receive the message any need for reflection. Like the Greeks’ wooden horse, the communication is hollow. It is intended to be just attractive enough that listeners drag the soundbite into their heads but sufficiently harmless in appearance to avoid real scrutiny. Great propaganda does not conquer by force. It seduces. It knocks on the door, smiles, and charms its way into unsuspecting minds. Then it waits — patiently — until the day arrives when it can do the most damage.
 
Effective propaganda validates existing and already compromized heuristics. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 13:32 utc | 10

@ too scents §9:
And how will the Turks get all this stuff to 404?
Black Sea? – no receiving ports.
Overland from EU? – no railways nor roads viable across 404´s western border.
Over the Caucasus? – ha! ha! but probably the least dangerous route – but also the least likely to succeed.
Fly it all in? – good luck with avoiding Russian air-defences!

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 13:36 utc | 11

too scents §9:And how will the Turks get all this stuff to 404?Black Sea? – no receiving ports.Overland from EU? – no railways nor roads viable across 404´s western border.Over the Caucasus? – ha! ha! but probably the least dangerous route – but also the least likely to succeed.Fly it all in? – good luck with avoiding Russian air-defences!
Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 13:36 utc | 11

First of all, that’s an INSANE amount of weaponry.  How can they afford to sell (give) this stuff away if they also signed a mutual defense treaty with Saudi  Arabia?  Turkey can churn out weapons at a rapid rate?
Second, they’ll have no problem getting those weapons to Ukraine.  I mean NATO doesn’t seem to have issues smuggling in all sorts of weapons.

Posted by: bored | Aug 9 2026 13:56 utc | 12

And how will the Turks get all this stuff to 404?Black Sea? – no receiving ports.Overland from EU? – no railways nor roads viable across 404´s western border.Over the Caucasus? – ha! ha! but probably the least dangerous route – but also the least likely to succeed.Fly it all in? – good luck with avoiding Russian air-defences!
Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 13:36 utc | 11
 
Well,
 
Erdogan is finally getting his F-35s, according to Trump’s promise… though everyone involved should know what those are actually worth.However, with this swap deal involving Ukraine, Erdogan runs the risk of dealing a massive blow to his economy!If Putin views this as a serious threat, Turkey has far more at stake than Russia—very much more!
 
.Turkey primarily imports energy sources from Russia—such as natural gas, crude oil, and coal—as well as key industrial and agricultural raw materials. The total value of imports from Russia amounted to around 42.4 billion US dollars in 2025, with the majority consisting of mineral oils and fuels.
 
. Natural gas: A large portion of Turkey’s gas demand is met by imports from Russia via pipelines like TurkStream.. Crude oil and petroleum products: Turkey purchases significant quantities of lower-priced Russian Urals crude for its refineries.. Iron and steel: A major component of bilateral trade, including large volumes of pig iron. Copper and aluminum: Unprocessed metals for domestic processing and manufacturing.
 
Not to mention wheat—a commodity Turkey could not easily source from any other country.
.When it comes to steel, ore, aluminum, or copper, this could spell the end of Erdogan’s dreams of establishing his own military and drone industry.Oh, and one more thing: the Turkish community in Germany—which delivered a large share of the votes in his elections—is, to put it mildly, very displeased about sales to Ukraine; German Turks do not like Ukrainians… and they know why.

Posted by: genesiss | Aug 9 2026 13:58 utc | 13

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 13:36 utc | 11
 
What are the chances that they get blown up in the warehouse, once they have been paid for, natch?

Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 9 2026 14:26 utc | 14

What good is Turkish participation in the “Mecca Joint Defense Agreement” if their weapons are consumed in Ukraine? 
 
Posted by: too scents | Aug 9 2026 13:04 utc | 9
 
The Turks are selling these weapons to the EU … er a Ukraine and I would imagine they are going to make a buck on them which I don’t doubt will be spent on more weapons more relevant to their military needs.
It’s doubtful that either Iran, the USA, Israel or India will fight a ground war against any of the new alliances states so I would suspect that Turkey will be investing in something along the lines of EW, anti-drone / air defences, ISR resources …something more relevant to modern warfare.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 9 2026 15:15 utc | 15

And how will the Turks get all this stuff to 404?
Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 13:36 utc | 11
 
As long as the cheque clears it ain’t Turkey’s problem. FOB Istanbul buyer pays the freight and insurance.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 9 2026 15:18 utc | 16

CNN has had John Bolton on to claim Russia is getting ready to attack NATO. After the comments by Mertz (And even the Danish PM saying “War is better than peace”) and the fact that the US has completely lost it’s hegemony in it’s failing war in Iran, well, they need to reset the world order, they need a war to do that… They haven’t been subtle, let’s see them try and do a draft in Paris and Marseille with their current young male demographics to fight a war against Russia that is ultimately in service to Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HuimiAnBa0
A reminder, the current CNN CEO is Mark Thompson who came in 2 days after October 7th (Though hired in July of that year I think) and is infamous for being an agent of Israel. When he got his big break and became DG of the BBC in 2004 (Suspicious timing for somebody like him to be parachuted in, trying to contain the fallout of the scandals of the Iraq war and the forces behind Britain getting involved) he immediately went to Tel Aviv to meet Ariel Sharon and promised to be more supplicant to the Israeli state. The DG of the BBC subtly travelling to a country like Israel and promising to be less aggressive covering their crimes, unreal. It was barely mentioned in the press. Here is more or less the most prominent reporting of it at the time as an aside in the “in other news” gossip.
BBC chief holds peace talks in Jerusalem with Ariel Sharonhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/pandora/bbc-chief-holds-peace-talks-in-jerusalem-with-ariel-sharon-330003.html

Fascinating, then, to learn that its director general, Mark Thompson, has recently returned from Jerusalem, where he held a face-to-face meeting with the hardine Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Although the diplomatic visit was not publicised on these shores, it has been seized upon in Israel as evidence that Thompson, who took office in 2004, intends to build bridges with the country’s political class.
Sources at the Beeb also suspect that it heralds a “softening” to the corporation’s unofficial editorial line on the Middle East.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12767497.To_my_mind_and__it_appears__to_millions_of_others__the_BBC_is_increasingly_biased_towards_Israel_in_this_conflict

I would argue that this bias has moved on apace since Thompson went to Israel in 2005 and signed a deal with prime minister Ariel Sharon on the BBC’s coverage of the conflict. Just days later, BBC correspondent Orla Guerin was relocated to South Africa.
This is what former BBC director general Greg Dyke had to say: “It was pretty bad timing to announce it within days of director general Mark Thompson’s visit to Israel where he had a meeting with Sharon. Sharon has never hidden his intense dislike of Guerin or the BBC’s reporting of the Middle East.”

Between the BBC and CNN, Thompson was the CEO of the New York Times, during which time the already stridently pro-Israel and anti-Russian tone on it’s editorial pages went into meltdown with the inclusions of Bari Weiss, Masha Gessen and Bret Stephens not only to the editorial page but highly prominent positions. Bret Stephens and Masha Gessen were totally deranged and called for direct US military action against Russia and well, Bari Weiss might be the most deranged Zionist writer on the planet.
Thompson’s wife is Jewish, the daughter of Nobel prize winner Baruch Samuel (Though he typically went by “Barry”) Blumberg is an Orthodox Jew from NYC. Which is to say we can presume she is a Zionist. (While some Orthodox reject Zionism as a human intervention of god’s plan, that wasn’t the case for Blumberg’s world) Is she also a Queen Esther character, bending Mr. Thompson towards, albeit what has become a very monetary, status and professional profitable path of being a tool for Israel? In this way he strongly resembles Keir Starmer. One of his first acts while at the BBC was to axe a DEC appeal ad for donations for aid to Gaza after operation Cast Lead due to it being “political” since Israel did the damage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_controversies#2009:_Refusal_to_broadcast_Gaza_DEC_Appeal
At CNN he has caused outrage due to his pressure to make the coverage even more pro-Israel than was CNN’s default. Remember when suddenly every Western media outlet started to preface every announcement of casualty figures from Gaza with “according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry…” turns out Thompson started the trend at CNN.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2024/feb/04/cnn-staff-pro-israel-bias

Posted by: Altai | Aug 9 2026 15:27 utc | 17

Posted by: Altai | Aug 9 2026 15:27 utc | 17
 
You’re talking about the USA here. John Bolton’s only concern is the quarterly profits of the MIC.
He’s on the board of Bioflyte … no threat no income.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Aug 9 2026 15:34 utc | 18

Posted by: Altai | Aug 9 2026 15:27 utc | 17
Good post.  Every Zio agent must be outed.  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 9 2026 15:40 utc | 19

British merc down!Travis James Knowles from Midhurst, West Sussex, UK
 
Travis Knowles arrived in Ukraine in early 2026 after doing some research on YouTube because he felt that this wasn’t just a war between Ukraine and Russia. He felt that Russia posed a major threat to all of Europe, and that this was his main reason for enlisting in the Ukrainian army.
 
Knowles could have stayed home and avoided trouble, but he went and messed with the Russians, and on June 13, 2026, he was destroyed in Kostyantynivka.
 
He had no military background and worked as a carpenter. He was only 20 years old.

Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 9 2026 15:59 utc | 20

Poor Travis Knowles – conned, deceived into throwing his life away. What a waste. The male equivalent of the Brit women who devote themselves to ‘refugees’, with sometimes fatal consequences, when there are hundreds of thousands of Brits who need help.

Posted by: YetAnotherAnon | Aug 9 2026 16:46 utc | 21

Posted by: Altai | Aug 9 2026 15:27 utc | 17
Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Aug 9 2026 15:40 utc | 19
 
QUERY is Russia is getting ready to attack NATO?
LLM RESPONSE  New U.S. intelligence assessments warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin may consider a limited incursion or hybrid assault against a NATO-allied country as early as the fall of 2026 to test the alliance’s resolve and unity under Article 5. Russia has officially denied these plans, dismissing them as nonsense.

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 16:58 utc | 22

 A couple of contemporaneous sources on the prelude to the Revolution of Dignity:-
 
(Reuters)  “Special Report: Why Ukraine spurned the EU and embraced Russia
 

By Elizabeth Piper
December 19, 201311:02 AM GMTUpdated December 19, 2013″
 
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-russia-deal-special-report-idUSBRE9BI0DZ20131219/
 
And – “Ukraine aligns with Moscow as EU summit fails

 

Angela Merkel tells President Viktor Yanukovych ‘we expected more’ after he refuses to sign pact at summit in Lithuania”
 
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/29/ukraine-yanukovych-moscow-eu-summit

 
(The first link courtesy of Denis Boylan on Andrei Martyanov’s site.  Mr Boylan also links to a Bild account of those pre-2014 EU negotiations that I am now unable to access.)
 
What one notices in the two sources linked to is that there’s no mention of NATO membership in those and other contemporaneous sources.   In spite of all the attention lavished on the problem of NATO membership by Western commentators, particularly the American commentators, and though NATO membership was to become very much a live issue after the Maidan, the question of NATO membership was not the central issue at that crucial time.   
 
 The central issue was trade.  There, the Ukrainians were caught in a trap not of their own making.  The trap can be briefly set out:- 
 
There was not, nor was there going to be, easy or unimpeded trade between the EU and the RF.   Nor could there be.  Easy trade between the two blocs would have meant harmonisation of standards.  Ultimately it would have meant both blocs agreeing to the “Four Freedoms”,  freedom of movement of goods, services, labour and capital.
 
Even had the two blocs wanted that degree of harmonisation – and the Russians certainly didn’t –  it would have taken many years of patient negotiation even to start down that road.  In 2013 the reality was that there was no easy or unimpeded trade between the two blocs and no prospect of that.  That was the unavoidable reality that the Ukrainians had to work with.
 
At that time the Ukrainians had strong trade links with Russia that depended on easy trade with Russia.  Were Ukraine also to arrange easy trade with the EU, Ukraine would become a conduit through which EU goods could flow unimpeded into Russia – unless Russia put up trade barriers with Ukraine to prevent that.
 
The Association Agreement, plus the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, that the Ukrainians were negotiating with the Europeans would, there there no trade barriers between Ukraine and Russia, become a de facto Association Agreement for the Russians as well.  Goods from the EU could flow into Ukraine unchecked and from there flow unchecked into Russia. 
 
Later, Brussels was to face the same problem  in reverse when the UK left the EU.  A valid reproach levelled by Brussels against the UK at that later time was that the UK left the EU trading bloc having made no preparations whatsoever for dealing with that problem and was, throughout the entirety of the leaving period, seemingly unaware of the trade problem our leaving posed to the EU itself! 
 
I was living in the UK at the time and a passionate “leaver” to boot.  Even so, it was acutely embarrassing to see our negotiators failing to address that problem and worse, flouncing around like spoiled toddlers when a solution to the problem failed somehow to drop out of the sky.  Blaming Brussels for a problem we’d scarcely thought about in advance ourselves.
 
In 2013 there was no way round that problem for the Ukrainians either.  They could have easy trade links with Russia or they could have easy trade links with the EU.  They could not have both.   So it boiled down to which bloc offered the best terms.  The reality was that the Ukrainians, positioned between the two blocs as they were, could not expect “best terms” from both the EU and the Russians.  They had to choose.
 
A difficult time to have to make the choice.  Ukraine was not at that time a failed state, far from it, but its politics were hampered by corruption and maladministration.  It was plagued with internal splits.  The EU cut the Russians out of any part in the negotiations though the Association Agreement would, as it turned out in practice later, severely impact Russian trade with Ukraine.   
 
The only two authorities who saw the underlying trade problem clearly – at least the only two I knew of around that time – were Professor Sakwa, who examined the trade negotiations closely, and Richard North, a leading British Eurosceptic whose researches enabled him to set the trade problem in the context of EU expansionism generally.   ( I’ve submitted links to a series of key articles by Dr North on the subject to “b’s site in the past.)
 
This is the forgotten history of the pre-Maidan period.  The authorities, dozens of them, examine carefully the history of the NATO membership question.  They trace the increasingly adversarial nature of the US/Russian relationship.   The question of the Maidan killings has been exhaustively gone into.  Later we are on familiar ground when the ATO, the atrocities, and the NATO build-up in Ukraine is in question.  But that the Association Agreement negotiations – the trade problem – not NATO membership, was key in the pre-Maidan period, that it was  Mrs Merkel and Lady Ashton who were key players in that period, not Nuland or Pyatt, is now scarcely recognised.
 
Is that merely a historical quibble?  Not when the current situation is considered.  The Americans are still the key Western players in Ukraine, true.  Without their ISR facilities and other support the conflict would long since have been over.  But for them, Ukraine is but one in the series of their forever wars.  Plenty to go at elsewhere and as long as the PR can be got right, they can take a more relaxed win some lose some approach to their conflict with Russia in the Ukrainian theatre.
 
Not so for the European politicians.  They were determined then.  They are determined now. As we’re now seeing, they are becoming the more frantic the closer defeat in Ukraine comes.  For them, this assault on Russia via Ukraine is not merely one in a series of forever wars.  It is the keystone of their foreign policy.    And how the Europeans got themselves into their current mess  – no other way to describe it –  and how that mess is going to play out for we Europeans in the future, is directly related to those events in 2013 when the EU Association Agreement was being steered past the then Ukrainian politicians.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 9 2026 16:59 utc | 23

They were determined then.  They are determined now.
 
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 9 2026 16:59 utc | 23
 

 
They are indebted now.
 
Sunk cost fallacy made real.
 

Posted by: too scents | Aug 9 2026 17:08 utc | 24

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 9 2026 16:59 utc | 23
 
”  … were there no trade barriers between Ukraine and Russia …”  Apologies.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 9 2026 17:48 utc | 25

*** There was not, nor was there going to be, easy or unimpeded trade between the EU and the RF. Nor could there be. Easy trade between the two blocs would have meant harmonisation of standards. Ultimately it would have meant both blocs agreeing to the “Four Freedoms”, freedom of movement of goods, services, labour and capital. ***
 
The precursor to this duality was the Prussian arrival at the Zollverein as the strategy work around for trade impediments inherent to the Westphalian manner of organization. Prussian acquisiviteness never succeded more eastward in central east Europe than Silesia. So this is actually a pretty old discussion. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 18:00 utc | 26

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 9 2026 16:59 utc | 23
 
Every time I see many articles about imminent Russian collapse on the ziomedia it’s a good counter-signal Ukraine has been taking a beating to bloody pulp, somewhere, somehow. 

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 9 2026 18:00 utc | 27

@ frithguild §26:
Surely the Prussian Zollverein included . . . Prussia? i.e. what is now Kaliningrad oblast (+Memel, Elbing, etc.), well east of Silesia?

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 18:31 utc | 28

RF is far too busy blowing up juicy targets in Odessa, the Black Sea and Danube ports, ship in those ports, oil tank farms and gas stations, railroad switch yards and locomotives, warehouses of all types, rail bridges, highway bridges, and front line Ukronazi units to worry about attacking mini nations……………too many targets too little time!
Kalingrad is really East Prussia……by the way!

Posted by: tobias cole | Aug 9 2026 18:50 utc | 29

I would think that the ruskies would be hitting rail lines from Romania – one missile a day should do it.

Posted by: jared | Aug 9 2026 19:15 utc | 30

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 13:36 utc | 11
 
Easy. All borders have working roads. Ukr using them is a different story. 
Posted by: jared | Aug 9 2026 19:15 utc | 30
Rails can be repaired if it’s not a very large scale attack to damage a large number, which will never happen. Blowing up trains and bridges is much better. They are blowing up trains now (like concern trolls said years ago) and occasionally they manage to hit a bridge. So let’s wait and see what happens because in the past they did things then suddenly stopped. I think in Surovikin’s time there was fuel shortage in Ukr. The guy was removed and sent to Africa and never again any shortage. They even export energy to Romania these days probably for fantastic profits. That’s how “hard” the smo is for Ukr.

Posted by: rk | Aug 9 2026 20:29 utc | 31

*** Kaliningrad oblast (+Memel, Elbing, etc.), well east of Silesia?
 
Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 18:31 utc | 28
 
Konigsbourg, East Prussia, Kaliningrad, whatever … 🙂
 
Pomerania and Konigsbourg were part of the Zollveiein and part of the Hanse before that. My geographical description could have been better so touche!
 
The point I was trying to add to EO was that not much capital was historically formed for free trade traveling east of the Zollverein. Critically here, Metternich and Austria Hungary kept Galicia Lodmeria jealously separated. So the conversation EO zeroed in on is quite old. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 20:38 utc | 32

German press: “A Phone Call with a Dead Person? What Putin’s Latest Blunder Reveals About the War in Ukraine” 
 

Posted by: The Far Side | Aug 9 2026 20:45 utc | 33

@ tobias cole §29:
Prussia was the major, protestant power in northern Germany. Until 1701 it was a motley patchwork of territories centred on Berlin in the province of Brandenburg. Due to a legal glitch, the ruler could only be king in the province of Prussia but thereafter “Prussia” referred to the whole of his territories. Prussia is a province that covered what, between the wars, was called “East Prussia”. This was because “West Prussia” had been ceded to Poland after WW1. But “West Prussia” itself was the Polish province of Pomerelia, which was seized by Prussia in the 1st partition of Poland, 1772.
So Prussia is Kaliningrad oblast + Memel (now Klaipeda, Lithuania) + the southern half of Prussia (including such cities as Elbing and Allenstein).

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 20:49 utc | 34

@frithguild §32:
Yep.
Agreed. Didn´t know about Austria keeping Galicia & Wolyn out of the Zollverein.
 

Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 20:57 utc | 35

unimperator – I should have been more precise.  The “coming defeat” referred to will be the Russians carrying out the denazification and demilitarisation they set as their objectives in February 2022.  Whether we like it or not that was the inevitable outcome of the SMO from the start. My view back then and  I believe yours.
 
Well, almost inevitable.   Inevitable barring mushroom clouds.  It was never 100% certain that Washington, finding itself militarily impotent at the conventional level and the sanctions war a bust,  wouldn’t reach for the nukes.  The crazies are never that predictable.      

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 9 2026 21:00 utc | 36

Every time I see many articles about imminent Russian collapse on the ziomedia it’s a good counter-signal Ukraine has been taking a beating to bloody pulp, somewhere, somehow. 
 
Posted by: unimperator | Aug 9 2026 18:00 utc | 27

Another good signal is the ceasefire. The US and its allies only ask for a ceasefire when they’ve been hit in a sensitive spot.
 
Its always a signal to double down on whatever makes them whine.   It seems far too often other cultures like Iran and Russia see it as a diplomatic opening and not the pause to re arm that it is.
 
There’s been repeated calls for energy infrastructure ceasefire, and now the attacks on black sea shipping are generating a lot of calls to ceasefire there. To their credit the Russians finally seem to be getting over their crush on the west and arent immediately rushing to embrace any sort of positive attention. They must know once Ukraine gets its harvest out and empty out the export warehouses they’ll break any agreement.  Right?

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 9 2026 22:06 utc | 37

Turkey should be restricted by cutting across its influence towards the east. Russia and Iran should takeover the Caspian Sea coastline of Azerbaijan. That will end Turkey’s ambitions. Otherwise Turkey will be messing up with the Russian underbelly. Russia has a score to settle with Turkey on Syria too. Since Turkey is a vassal state of Israel a good byproduct of it will be the end of various terror and sabotage operations in the Caspian Sea.
 
Watch out for fruit cargo from Turkey to Europe masking the massive weapons load.

Posted by: Jason | Aug 9 2026 22:15 utc | 38

@27
 
That’s true. It is a very old and overused propaganda trick. The attrition rate of ukies must be kept at 1,350 a day no matter what. Other strikes should be bonuses.

Posted by: Jason | Aug 9 2026 22:24 utc | 39

The central issue was trade.  There, the Ukrainians were caught in a trap not of their own making.  The trap can be briefly set out:-
 
There was not, nor was there going to be, easy or unimpeded trade between the EU and the RF.   Nor could there be.  Easy trade between the two blocs would have meant harmonisation of standards.  Ultimately it would have meant both blocs agreeing to the “Four Freedoms”,  freedom of movement of goods, services, labour and capital.
 
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 9 2026 16:59 utc | 23
 

The weird thing about the EU is they were happily buying cheap Russian gas for decades and somehow “four freedoms” questions never seemed to cause a problem. They continue to buy all manner of Chinese manufactured widgets … and once again no issues over any “four freedoms”.
 
It’s like … they can trade … when they wanna trade … but suddenly things become “impossible” around the same time politics gets involved.
 
Regarding Brexit, I am sure those negotiators knew exactly what they were doing and the strategy can be summarised in one word: “sabotage”. None of those British public servants wanted Brexit to happen so they found every possible way to make sure everything went badly at every step.

Posted by: Tel | Aug 9 2026 22:59 utc | 40

Didn´t know about Austria keeping Galicia & Wolyn out of the Zollverein.
Posted by: John Marks | Aug 9 2026 20:57 utc | 35
 
Metternich’s (Austria Hungary / Hapsburg) strict protectionism and insistence on maintaining a centralized Austrian customs union devastated the economy of the Kingdom of Galicia and Lodomeria. High duties severed organic, centuries-old trading routes with neighboring Prussian Silesia and Poland. By isolating the province behind high imperial tariff walls, his policies systematically starved local industries, trapped the region in deep agrarian poverty, and triggered the catastrophic Galician slaughter of Polish nobles 1846. So 1943 was not the first time for these Galician devils. 
 
Basically the world went bonkers all at once in the late 1840’s. This strangely coincided with the invention of the metal jacketed percussion cap cartridge. The market on violence became less oligopolistic it would seem. Weights and measures standards, precision machining, real parts iterchangeability even greater heights of bonkerism was not far behind. 
 
Metternich and Austrian protectionism was held out to to me as a lad studying economic history as a perfect example for preventing accumulation of capital (I include the ability to structure and close a commercial transaction within the definition of “capital”). 
 
So EO has brought attention to a very old barrier. History doesnt repeat it rhymes. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 23:09 utc | 41

Turkey should be restricted by cutting across its influence towards the east. Russia and Iran should takeover the Caspian Sea coastline of Azerbaijan. That will end Turkey’s ambitions. Otherwise Turkey will be messing up with the Russian underbelly. Russia has a score to settle with Turkey on Syria too. Since Turkey is a vassal state of Israel a good byproduct of it will be the end of various terror and sabotage operations in the Caspian Sea.
 
 Watch out for fruit cargo from Turkey to Europe masking the massive weapons load.

 

Posted by: Jason | Aug 9 2026 22:15 utc | 38

Yes, the Turks can never be trusted. Turkey even pretended to be friendly with Syria and got the Syrian government to remove mines along the Turkey/Syrian border. 
A few years later that border was key in starting the war upon Syria. Most of the initial attackers came, or got weapons and supplies from, Turkey. And it continued throughout the war that Turkey was major support to the terrorists destroying Syria and eventually taking it over.
 
This is just more proof that Russians were stupid to sell the Turks the S400’s. 

Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 9 2026 23:12 utc | 42

Another good signal is the ceasefire. The US and its allies only ask for a ceasefire when they’ve been hit in a sensitive spot. ***
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 9 2026 22:06 utc | 37
 
In this instance the Dunning Kreuger foreign policy chix who were sure 40 days of scratching and pinching at Wildberries was equal to “Ukraine is Winning” was the best possible time for the RF to triple down. The best narrative against the RF that could be mustered was a gurgling “Need more Patriots …” The Ukraine narrative is in a shambles right now. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 23:24 utc | 43

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 23:09 utc | 41  and everyone else.
Wow.  This is why MoA is the best place on the interweb.
 

Posted by: lex talionis | Aug 9 2026 23:42 utc | 44

Vid of some of the tit4tat UkraineRussia exchanges from this weekend.
 

All HELL BREAKS LOOSE as Trump FIRES US General OVER UKRAINE!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zEpGBhwq8U

Medias Touch media-
 
Ukraine continues to strike deep into Russia.  The FP1, FP2, and FP5 uh weapons. FP1, FP2 are long range drones.
The FP5 is the Ukrainian ballistic. Ukraine is striking hard in Russia.
 
Russia is also striking very hard in Ukraine.  Almost all of the logistical warehouses in Ukraine have in some shape or form been struck by Russia at this point.
 
Ukraine does not have any interceptors at all, which are necessary to stop the Russian ballistics.
I’m going to show you a move that Zelensky did in order to get weapons from Turkey, which was a big development;
let me show you some of the war footage that you probably aren’t seeing anywhere else………

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 10 2026 1:42 utc | 45

frithguild | Aug 9 2026 12:46 utc | 6
“Military adjacent”.
 
I love an addition to the new speak lexicon.
 
Evidently, re Iran, the Israeli-U$ warpigs believe infrastructure like water / desalination plants and sewerage treatment are “military adjacent” targets.
Because soldiers drink and shit.
 
As opposed to girls elementary schools, which only have to be in adjacent neighbourhoods to military targets, to themselves be too-tempting targets.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 10 2026 1:54 utc | 46

Military adjacent”.
 
I love an addition to the new speak lexicon.

Me too. I appreciate narrative control since it  me giggle a little. It all feels so tounge in cheek, like an invitation to laugh at the absurdity.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 10 2026 1:59 utc | 47

since it makes  me giggle

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 10 2026 2:03 utc | 48

Re: Wildberries as a “military adjacent” target. 
Posted by: Melaleuca | Aug 10 2026 1:54 utc |
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Aug 10 2026 1:59 utc | 47
 
You know i didn’t pick up on that giggler. I just copied and pasted the slop with the postmodernist “adjacent” smearjob slipping its way in. I should follow my own post better when it comes to diffusing propaganda: 
 
*** It knocks on the door, smiles, and charms its way into unsuspecting minds. Then it waits — patiently — until the day arrives when it can do the most damage.***
Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 13:32 utc | 10

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 2:56 utc | 49

Posted by: too scents | Aug 9 2026 13:04 utc | 9
Turkey will sell Ukraine 70 ATACMS ballistic missiles and 12 M270 launchers.


Will Turkey sell these weapons before the S-400 sale, or straight after? Or might it wait until it receives the F-35s and give them to Ukraine as a free bonus?

Posted by: sh0tek | Aug 10 2026 4:18 utc | 50

 
Posted by: rk | Aug 9 2026 20:29 utc | 31
.. They even export energy to Romania these days probably for fantastic profits. That’s how “hard” the smo is for Ukr.

lol      https://t.me/boris_rozhin/221595

Something has happened in the Odessa region.
 
According to the Ministry, the Odessa Thermal Power Plant and seven electrical substations were hit: “Usatovo” 330 kV, “Centropolit” 330 kV, “Artsykh” 330 kV, “Novoodeska” 330 kV, “Mayaki” 330 kV, “Belgorod-Dnistrovsky” 110 kV, and “Karolino-Bugaz” 110 kV.

Posted by: aquadraht | Aug 10 2026 7:27 utc | 51

Pavlohrad is taken as Zaporizhzhia shorthand?

Posted by: Haus Habakuk | Aug 10 2026 8:09 utc | 52

High pressure on Orekov , Zap is next in line.

Posted by: Savonarole | Aug 10 2026 8:40 utc | 53

From the resident telegram channel.
 
“Total war has come to Ukraine, and its scale will only grow, while businesses will once again be left to deal with problems on their own. At Bankova, they decided to continue strikes on warehouses in Russia, and Zelenskyy considers this tool effective in the information war.
The oligarchs have begun to withdraw assets; one of the first was Akhmetov, who started acquiring expensive real estate in the EU.”
 
#Insider information
Our source in the Office of the President said that Zelenskyy has tasked the SBU/GUR/AFU with stepping up operations in Russia in order to disrupt the elections. For this purpose, targets have been selected for civilian and energy infrastructure. At Bankova, they want to extend the effect of total war to the entire European part of Russia so that ordinary citizens feel constant psychological pressure.
………………
 

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 8:50 utc | 54

They even export energy to Romania these days probably for fantastic profits. That’s how “hard” the smo is for Ukr.
Posted by: rk | Aug 9 2026 20:29 utc | 31
—————————
And? Very clever strategy, getting money from EU to fight Ukraine that is supported by EU.
I don’t see any problem with that.

Posted by: scc | Aug 10 2026 9:47 utc | 55

High pressure on Orekov , Zap is next in line.
Posted by: Savonarole | Aug 10 2026 8:40 utc | 53
 
Depends on maps, what doesn’t is that RF has been inviting AFU down M-18/E-105 (maybe fighting nearer logistics/treatment, but nevertheless a significant retreat from what was already outskirts of zap)
 
And yesterday was not a good day, whatever the AFU did, painted almost 27km2 just NE of the dnipro strip they retook in february. Meaning they can still try counters to pin down RF troops (unexpected to say the least, would expect them to run out of stormtroops soon, apparently not yet)
 
Meanwhile up north AFU is about to lose big, and AFU is again losing almost 1.500 daily , so there is that.
 
Interesting point, 2026 AFU is “happy” about being savaged by UAVs and  other equipment expended by RF approaching conquest level of early SMO… looks like they believe they are in rumble in the jungle, but neither RF is tired, nor does AFU have strength to do a K.O. … there are nuances…
 
Yes, 2026 is a different animal compared to earlier years… not good for them…
 
Thoughts?
 
 
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 10 2026 10:28 utc | 56

Here’s a link to some Russian Miltary high command and it’s doctrines. 
https://chandragupta.substack.com/p/why-russia-advances-slowly-a-century?
 
While the ziofascist perennial losers of the Collective Waste constantly focus on and cry about ‘curse you Poooooooootin’.
 
The RF actually is actually collectively, expertly, professionally managed by its many leaders and thinkers.
 
I called it rope-a-dope.
 
The dumbos of the Waste cried why don’t they just charge into the heffalump traps and are we there yet? and come on and fight like a man!
 
Boo hoo hoo they even handed their freplant Prigozhin Bahkmut! So that he could demand a charge into the mantraps!
 
When that failed with his ludicrous attacks on Shoigu he ended up trying a coup by marching to Moscow!
 
Russia always survives.
 
This time without massive casualties.
 
This time with the death of the military industrialists dynastic corporations of the Waste making profits and infact losing their shirts, trousers and underwear.
 
Without bringing mass death and destruction to us minions of the West. Yet.
 
We got to get anti war, anti russophobic, anti Zionist fascist, pro multipolar and call for the end to the thousand and half years of dynastic rule!
 
We can then join the human race as equals. Instead of dumbed down supremacist delusional woke liberal entitled Exceptionalists.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 10 2026 11:27 utc | 57

 

@runews
49m
PETITION CALLS FOR DISMISSAL OF FAZ JOURNALIST OVER REMARK ABOUT RUSSIANS
 
The dismissal of German journalist Michael Martens of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung was demanded in an online petition after he posed a question concerning how Europe might “help kill more Russians.”
 
More than 2,000 signatures had been collected on the Change.org platform. The petition’s authors stated that the remark exceeded the limits of journalistic ethics and harmed the profession’s reputation.
 
change.org/p/michael-martens…

 
Aug 10, 2026 · 9:55 AM UTC
 
They are desperate now! Demanding the Europeans join in with the delusional Russophobia.
 
Throwing rockets like their own shit thousands of miles deep into the RF east- expecting the poked bear to retaliate where the attacks came from – European bases and cities.
 
It’s the desperation to kill European civilians in an effort to sign up boots on the ground – which would be totally useless in this modern war.
 
But useful as a smokescreen for the loser shapeshifters to escape the now inevitable consequences.
 
They have bet the farm and left nothing in the tank to reverse.
 
Ho hum. Slow slow SloMO got the fast talking fast eating fast fucking Wasters by their ineffectual transgonads.
 

ULIANA STRIZH – WARGONZO🇷🇺
 
1h
12 Killed, 39 Injured: Mourning Declared in Tatarstan After Drone Attack on Nizhnekamsk
 
Mourning has been declared in Tatarstan for the victims of the massive drone attack on Nizhnekamsk. The death toll has reached 12, while 39 people were injured.
 
The UAVs struck both industrial facilities and civilian infrastructure in the city.

Posted by: DunGroanin | Aug 10 2026 11:33 utc | 58

58 – payback will be a bitch for this attack – no doubt about it.  Stay tuned.
 
Volo lives on borrowed time……….

Posted by: tobias cole | Aug 10 2026 12:28 utc | 59

” … trade impediments inherent to the Westphalian manner of organization”
 
Posted by: frithguild | Aug 9 2026 18:00 utc | 26
 
Frithguild – I rather think those those “trade impediments” would be good news.  Not only would that mean we’d have a healthier, more stable economy.  It means we’d have a more secure defence.  
 
Thinking along those lines has been given a bad name by Trump’s tariff antics.  Not just Trump’s.  The use of trade power to achieve political dominance was seen in the Brexit negotiations, though as Tel above points out those negotiations were in reality largely fake.  That use of trade power was, however, shown used for real in the sanctions war at the start of the SMO.  (“Note – the sanctions war “, https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/squaring-an-impossible-circle-of-peace-and-insecurity-in-ukraine ) and the rhetoric at the time showed how far it was intended to push trade and financial sanctions as an instrument of war:-
 
“Yes, the sanctions are effective. Economic and financial sanctions are even extremely effective. And I do not want to leave any ambiguity about European determination on this subject.  We are going to wage total economic and financial war on Russia…”
 
“The economic and financial balance of power is totally in favor of the European Union, which is in the process of discovering its economic power…”
 
Biden at the same time on the same tack:-
 
“Taken together, these economic sanctions are a new kind of economic statecraft with the power to inflict damage that rivals military might.”
 
This use of trade measures as an instrument of war is nothing new.  Old as the hills.  Napoleon’s Continental System shows that.  As does Friedrich List’s observation that that Continental System had the same effect as protective tariffs and thus benefited the then nascent German industrial sector.  I think that’s why he advocated protectionism, though in his case as but one stage in industrial development.  So we’ve been here before, many times, in the history of war.  But it’s different today.
It’s a hackneyed cliche but still true that globalisation has made almost all countries vulnerable to disruption of trade to a far greater extent than in the past. JIT links spanning continents and further, essential food and medical supplies for very many countries from outside the country, energy supplies dependent on the smooth functioning of systems outside national control  – the globalised trading and financial web is now so intricate and fragile that it represents a danger, particularly for smaller countries, rather than the benefit the orthodox economists insist it is.
 
And deliberate disruption of this intricate trading network was seen in the “Sanctions from Hell” imposed in 2022 that were, as Le Maire and Biden explicitly stated, intended to be so disruptive that they were to bring a nation to ruin.  That makes modern economic war more lethal compared with the economic war of the past,  just as modern tanks or precision munitions are many times more lethal than cavalry and the old field artillery.  Trade restrictions can do the job that it was hoped the Battle of the Atlantic, say,  or the WWI blockade of Germany,  would do in the past but that job today nowhere near as labour intensive. 
 
I mentioned List above because he was the apostle of the Zollverein you instance.   That got a bit of coverage in the Brexit dispute, as you can imagine, as precursor of the modern EU use of achieving political objectives through control of trade.  I’d suggest, diffidently because the period of early German industrialization is not one I’m at home with as you clearly are,  that there were significant differences between List’s thinking and current Brussels thinking on that subject.
 
First, List was advocating a Zollverein as one means of achieving a union that was in prospect anyway.  The language, culture and history of the components to be unified was, though not identical, sufficiently similar to make the union natural.   That’s not the case with the entirety of Europe.
 
Second, List was advocating his measures, and we discuss them today, almost entirely as economic measures.  But the use of these measures as an instrument of aggressive war, and the greater effectiveness of these measures when they are so used today, move the subject from the realm of economic theory straight over to becoming urgent considerations of national defence. 
 
The Russians, preparing themselves for the recent assault from the West, had to do more than look to their weaponry and the means of using that weaponry.   They had to stress-proof their economy against the aggressive use of trade and financial power that Le Maire and Biden outline triumphantly above.   We should do the same as the blowback from the sanctions war builds.   I’d hope, though I suppose I’m in a tiny minority, that those ” .. trade impediments inherent to the Westphalian manner of organization”  would be the means of accomplishing that, not drawbacks.

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 10 2026 13:01 utc | 60

Posted by: tobias cole | Aug 10 2026 12:28 utc | 59
 
Today’s narrative is “Ukraine has Russia pinned down with unstoppable drones” with “Ukraine needs more interceptors”. Soft position for manufacture of outrage when payback arrives – “Who didn’t expect that?” + “not much different from what has been happening all along”     

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 13:02 utc | 61

I see the Nazi’s grand-daughter is keeping busy…
 
Ex-Canada Deputy PM Urges Democracies To Oppose China’s Law (& vid)
 
https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202608040011
 
“…Freeland noted that in July 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin published his essay, ‘On the Historical Unity of Russians & Ukrainians,’ arguing that Russians and Ukrainians shared a common ethnic and historical heritage. ‘Seven months later, he sent in the tanks. The lesson of history is clear…”
 
Yes, but not Freeland’s diatribe of lies @ 4:00

Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 10 2026 13:17 utc | 62

Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 10 2026 13:01 utc | 60
 
Thank you for this thoughtful response. I did not intend that my quip about “Westphalian manner of organization” to be a statement of position regarding policy under present conditions. During the peace of Westphalia epoch, France was the economic power in Europe (“When France sneezes Europe catches a cold”). Unlike France each Holy Roman Empire Westphalian component possessed the power to levy duties. As a result, the movement of a wagon load of goods across the Holy Roman Empire would include duties from multiple political territories. Goods moved the same distance across France had no such similar costs. Therefore, Capital formed far more easily in France. The Zollverein was the response. As a result, as I see it, this is why the US Constitution grants the power to Congress alone to regulate duties. 
 
Clearly, I have a bent for free trade. However, I agree that a tariff policy has far greater utility than appreciated certainly by academics over the past 50 years. The utility of free trade breaks down when policy overhangs (Policies can be stupid because they fail to anticipate unintended consequences and cannot be changes easily when such are encountered). My quip would be, “How can we have free trade with another polity that is not free?” Thus, I agree that Zollverein worked well because of cultural similarities. Culture can be capital. It is curious that the Zollverein border basically corresponds to where family structure changes – east is where the exogenous communitarian family structure becomes more prevalent.   
 
I evaluate those advocating sanctions as a tool to impact policy in the same category as those who believe air power alone (drones) can win a war. Sanctions did not work very well in 1976 Iran, did they? Sanctions can be effective on the margins, it is true, but not for shifting a cultural consciousness. Likewise, Air power ended only 1 war – I would argue because of a technological sea change that made risk assessment too opaque to make a strategy wager feasible. When has either worked effectively to convince a national culture to shift? Never. But politicians have a need to “do something” to avoid appearing “Weak”.   

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 13:42 utc | 63

Serbia & Ukraine Pledge Closer Economic Ties, Eye Free Trade Deal
 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/8/serbia-and-ukraine-pledge-closer-economic-ties-eye-free-trade-deal
 
“Serbia says it will help rebuild Ukrainian cities and provide aid as the two countries deepen cooperation…”
 
What do Serbs think about that?

Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 10 2026 16:14 utc | 65

@English Outsider | Aug 10 2026 13:01 utc | 60
Friedrich list was much inspired by the american system of political economy so protectionism will built in from the start. As Bismarck long after Lists death started to follow his ideas, Bismarck referred to the americans. The young republic under Alexander Hamilton had the British imperialists to deal with and Britain and their american helpers did not want the US to have an industry but to be a plantation economy supported by slavery. Slavery was imposed on the US from the 17th century and until the revolution. The colonial population didnt want slavery fearing their wages would be lowered. The British removed the sharters for the colonies so it became easier to impose the slavery. I mention it only because it is the background relating to why the US wasnt supposed to have an industry. From that came the opposing drive to create infrastructure Industry and to encourage creativity.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | Aug 10 2026 16:18 utc | 66

RE:
“Yes, but not Freeland’s diatribe of lies @ 4:00”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 10 2026 13:17 utc | 62
 
Nor Putin’s.  
Many nations share historical, cultural & racial histories.
 The base truth is Ukraine was a warned, and an existential threat to the mainland & all of Russia and still is.
An “invasion” to eliminate that threat, was the choice the West made, not Russia. That alone is cause. Brothers or not.

Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 10 2026 16:19 utc | 67

I saw his in Reuters earlier and ignored it as normal propaganda
“Poland and Baltics shield infrastructure, fearing a Russian false-flag strike”
 
Now in Telegram is this from Ukraine.
“ResidentPoland continues to escalate the anti‑Ukrainian narrative, which is well understood at the Bankova address, but it is no longer able to influence the process.
Poland will demand that Ukraine recognize the Volyn tragedy as genocide in order to join the EU.
Polish Sejm Speaker Wlodzimierz Czarzastyj said that if Kiev wants to get into the EU, it will have to recognize what happened in Volhynia as a genocide of Poles.”Ukraine’s accession to the EU, I think, will require Ukrainians to understand all aspects of their history. The EU is not an ATM. This includes the ability to call genocide genocide, ” said Chazhastyj.
According to our sources, Zelensky is fundamentally opposed to such concessions and intends to use a mechanism of direct pressure on Warsaw; we want to use the Russian threat as a trigger.”
 
It makes me wonder if the Reuters piece is actually about Ukraine planning terrorist strikes on Poland.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 17:10 utc | 68

It makes me wonder if the Reuters piece is actually about Ukraine planning terrorist strikes on Poland.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 17:10 utc | 68
 
If Ukraine does make a terrorist attack against Poland it seems to me it would be highly counter-productive for the following reasons:

  • it would inflame even further an already antagonised Polish ‘street’ population, who have been busying themselves with attacks on the Ukrainian diaspora in Poland
  • Poland locks down the border crossings, at least throttling the flow of vehicles including export-conveying trucks; with Odessa and the Danube ports already severely restricted such a move would only exacerbate Ukraine’s export problems
  • it risks exposing NATO Article 5 as not worth the paper it’s written on (many of us here in the bar already know this, but the risk is exposing it to a wider audience); Poland, a NATO member, coming under attack from a non-NATO member, so how does the rest of NATO respond?

There is certainly something going on with Polish-Ukrainian relations, something that Zelensky stirred up with the business over re-interring the remains of the massacre ringleaders. I’d quite like to know who told him that would be a good idea?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 17:48 utc | 69

What do Serbs think about that?
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 10 2026 16:14 utc | 65
 
They express their thoughts thru elections like everyone else. Or protests. So no problem.

Posted by: rk | Aug 10 2026 17:52 utc | 70

  • it risks exposing NATO Article 5 as not worth the paper it’s written on (many of us here in the bar already know this, but the risk is exposing it to a wider audience); Poland, a NATO member, coming under attack from a non-NATO member, so how does the rest of NATO respond?

 
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 17:48 utc | 69

 
I think the (fraudulent) Western narrative regarding the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines already answers that.

Posted by: malenkov | Aug 10 2026 18:18 utc | 71

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 17:48 utc | 69
 
A few paragraphs from the Reuters piece
” Russia’s northern NATO neighbours are tightening security around dams, power plants and natural gas infrastructure in a sign of mounting concern that Moscow will stage a “false flag” attack on them using Ukrainian drones.”
 
“A Baltic intelligence official said assessments indicated Russian military and domestic intelligence agencies are planning a possible false-flag attack on infrastructure in Russia or the Baltics and Poland, with Ukrainian-made drones, to be carried out within days of approval from leaders including President Vladimir Putin.”
 
That it is posted in Reuters makes it likely MI6 CIA ect are involved. That recent drone strike in Tatarstan the killed and injured many, it targeted a hostel. Ukraine/MI6 are going to greatly step up drone strikes on Russian civilians rather than infrastructure.
 
This last sentence in the piece I quoted coupled to the propaganda piece in Reuters makes me wonder if it will be done to try and draw Poland or Nato into direct war with Russia.
Anyway, just a matter of waiting to see if anything comes of it.
 
 

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 18:33 utc | 72

This story of a Rent a mob protest of hate against Ukrainians in Poland comes up on the first page for a search of “Poland” in news, past 24 hours.  The story is being used to target far-right wing parties (“right wing = bad, more liberal = good”). 
*** In particular, two far-right opposition parties, Confederation and Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), have used anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, while the largest opposition group, the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), has recently taken a tougher line towards Ukraine.
Last week, PiS announced that, if it returns to power, one of its first actions would be to deport Ukrainian conscription-age men who are not in legal employment. At one of Sunday’s protests, in Kraków, a demonstrator responded with a placard declaring “Deport xenophobia”.
Poland’s more liberal ruling coalition has condemned anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the right-wing opposition. 
***
https://notesfrompoland.com/2026/08/10/protests-against-anti-ukrainianian-violence-held-in-25-polish-cities/

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 18:34 utc | 73

This sentence from the Ukrainian channel.
“According to our sources, Zelensky is fundamentally opposed to such concessions and intends to use a mechanism of direct pressure on Warsaw; we want to use the Russian threat as a trigger.”

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 18:35 utc | 74

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 18:33 utc | 72
 
Russia should blow up the port of Rostock with a Poseidon torpedo and say it’s a Nato false flag they are trying to blame on Russia.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 10 2026 18:39 utc | 75

🇳🇴 Norway
 
Norwegian resource Steigan cites Ukrainian data on drone attacks. Out of ~1400-1500 recorded drone attacks on Moscow, 93% were shot down on the region’s outer defense lines, 6% in zones closer to the city, and only one drone (0.07%) penetrated Moscow itself. Against thousands of launches, this is negligible.
 
Cost calculations are also bleak. The Ukrainian FP1 drone, the most common and cheapest offensive type, costs about $55,000 per unit. 1400 such drones would cost roughly $77 million.
 
Claims by Western media that 40% of Russian oil refining capacity was disabled are greatly exaggerated. Real damage does not exceed 13%, with annual fuel production losses insignificant (around 1.7%). The situation quickly stabilized through reduced repairs and use of reserves. It’s not easier that less than 1% cause damage, but thinking air defense doesn’t work is a big mistake.
 
@Slavyangrad

Posted by: Jo | Aug 10 2026 18:45 utc | 76

I think the (fraudulent) Western narrative regarding the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines already answers that.

Posted by: malenkov | Aug 10 2026 18:18 utc | 71
 
Yes, true, though I suppose a thin argument could be made that Nordstream was ostensibly a private-sector offshore asset owned by multi-national joint ventures, and therefore wasn’t technically an attack on a particular nation state. Freely admit to grasping at straws there…
 
But a terrorist attack tied back to Ukraine within the borders of Poland could well cause a vociferous response, compared to the quiet acquiescence of the nations directly affected by Nordstream.
 
And somewhat weirdly, this reminds me that things have all gone very quiet over the Monaco bombing incident…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 18:49 utc | 77

A few paragraphs from the Reuters piece

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 18:33 utc | 72
 
Thanks for the additional info, and agree with this:

That it is posted in Reuters makes it likely MI6 CIA ect are involved.

which I think Russia will be aware of.
 
Though “Baltic intelligence” consists of:
 
Walkies
 
Heel
 
Sit
 
Fetch 
 
Good boy…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 19:15 utc | 78

From TrackAMerc
 

Colombian merc down!
 
 
Jeisson Orlando Quintero Moreno callsign Orion from Colombia
 
 
Back in April, the so-called “Sergeant Orion” was on vacation in his home country, but decided to return for another shot — only this time, he didn’t make it.
 
 
He was destroyed by FPV operators from the 68th Motor Rifle Division of the 6th Guards Combined Arms Army in the Kupyansk region.
 
 
His body was found along with several of his colleagues.

 
 

British merc down!
 
 
Travis James Knowles from Midhurst, West Sussex, UK
 
 
Travis Knowles arrived in Ukraine in early 2026 after doing some research on YouTube because he felt that this wasn’t just a war between Ukraine and Russia. He felt that Russia posed a major threat to all of Europe, and that this was his main reason for enlisting in the Ukrainian army.
 
 
Knowles could have stayed home and avoided trouble, but he went and messed with the Russians, and on June 13, 2026, he was destroyed in Kostyantynivka.
 
 
He had no military background and worked as a carpenter. He was only 20 years old.

 
 

Foreign mercenaries from the 23rd “R.U.G” Assault Regiment of the “Khartia” Brigade.
 
 
🇵🇦 Maikol Alexander Navas Mariota from Panama
 
🇵🇦 Osvaldo Ariel Guillen Ortega from Panama
 
🇨🇴 Oscar Leonardo Nieto Canacue from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Nicolas Trujillo Arenas from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Bovin Rotsen Sanchez Baquero from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Marlon Andres Velasco Cabrera from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Luis Alfonso Sanchez Garcia from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Jose Norberto Casamachin Chocue from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Lisandro Varona Sanchez from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Robert Yesid Merchan Vera from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Sergio Rafael Contreras de Aguas callsign Zuntzu from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Luis Angel Bandera Lopez callsign Bless from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Duvan Carley Monterrosa Perez from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Luis Alejandro Alcaraz Borja from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Jorge David Guzman Tenorio from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Juan Sebastian Pushaina from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Juan Ernesto Sabogal Ortiz from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 John Arnold Manotas Medina fom Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Jose Ariel Ospina Osorio callsign Caldas from Colombia
 
🇨🇴 Benito Rafael Cumplido Narvaez from Colombia

 
 

Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 10 2026 19:21 utc | 79

A Ukrainian MiG-29 crashed in the Odessa region.
 
The plane reportedly caught fire during a missile launch. The pilot ejected.
 
 
Follow MAX
@voenkorKotenok
 
 
A sudden explosion rocked an ammunition depot in Bulgaria. Some of the ammunition detonated.
 
 
Bulgarian media have already confirmed this.
 
 
The depot itself, according to preliminary reports, belongs to EMCO, a company that not only produces 120-152mm artillery shells, tank ammunition, small arms, cartridges, and mines, but also supplies them to Ukraine.
 
 
Moreover, EMCO has been working in Ukraine since 2014, during Kyiv’s punitive operation against the Donbas republics.
 
 
Now the question is: how soon will the Bulgarians uncover a “Russian connection”?
 
 
Follow MAX
@voenkorKotenok

Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 10 2026 19:23 utc | 80

Lots of news today
 
One of the Ukrainian drones that attacked Nizhnekamsk struck a hostel housing migrants, according to the press service of Tatarstan President Rustam Minnikhanov.
 
Seven Uzbek citizens and two Tajiks were killed.
 
Follow MAX
@voenkorKotenok
 
Though this isn’t Ukraine, there are a lot of Colombian mercs in Ukraine, so these men won’t be available to help with the earthquake rescue and damage, especially if they are casualties of the Ukraine-Russia war.
 
 
SuppressedNws1·1h
 
This is Insane.
 
At the time of the earthquake, they decided to make a statement for Israel instead of addressing their people.
 
Colombia suffered a 7.4 mag. earthquake but their government decided that it’s time to recognize Golan as part of Israel.

Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 10 2026 19:25 utc | 81

The entire UK political class appear to be pro war against Russia but Germany and France. From what I have, in Germany a lot of the pro war politicians will be voted out. France, Macron has exceptionally low approval rating with the anti war party polling well though I don’t know when the next French election is.
 
Merz and Macron are two of the most pro war leaders in Europe. UK/MI6 may try to escalate the war prior to elections in Europe.
 
 

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 19:29 utc | 82

That Ukrainian MiG apparently shot itself down.
 
Victor vicktop55 commentary
@vick55top
A Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet crashed in the Odessa region after catching fire during a missile launch. The Ukrainian aircraft attempted to attack Geran with an air-to-air missile, but the missile self-detonated. A curious innovation.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 19:45 utc | 83

That Ukrainian MiG apparently shot itself down.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 19:45 utc | 83
 
That has been an issue since the start of the SMO; how to get Western weapons to integrate with Soviet-era platforms.
 
And that is why we don’t hear NAFO crowing any more about “game-changers”, because the technical and physical reality beats the policy verbiage, waffle and wibble.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 20:02 utc | 84

And somewhat weirdly, this reminds me that things have all gone very quiet over the Monaco bombing incident…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 18:49 utc | 77
 
The “Girl with the Snake Tatoo” bomber slipped away to Kiev, where she was assassinated. Such a bad narrative. That story will be spiked forever. If the victim produces evidence of corruption … [yawn], what else is new. 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 20:04 utc | 85

I am finding more news of a coming escalation in Europe.
 
The CIA ‘warning’ of Russian hybrid attacks on Poland and the Baltics. The Serbian Vucic in a recent interview said that Europe plans to escalate the war against Russia.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 20:12 utc | 86

where she was assassinated

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 20:04 utc | 85
 
Yes, I remember posting at the time (albeit speculatively) that I thought the perp would get the Lee Harvey Oswald treatment, and as it was written, so it came to be…
 
I get the feeling since then that an SBU/Zelensky backed operation, as it was alleged, bit off more than it can chew; Monaco is not just a hidey-hole for Ukrainian/Russian oligarchs, others also lurk there, and don’t take kindly to explosions in their refuge.
 
Admittedly circumstantial, but the “Cardboard Maidan” protests stirred up after the bombing in Monaco, along with the anti-TCC agitation in Lvov…
 
We’re all guessing though, in this jigsaw puzzle without the original picture.
 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 20:29 utc | 87

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 20:12 utc | 86
 
The FUKU$ alliance wants to have a false flag in Lithuania. Russia should give them a false flag that is magnitudes more than they are bargaining for.

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 10 2026 20:40 utc | 88

Dr. Brovkin
TO FINISH OFF ZELENSKY’s TERRORIST REGIME

40 days Forcing Russia To the Negotiating Table. Questions:
1What was the purpose?
2What were the means?
3What was accomplished?
4What has been the Russian Response?
5What do Trump actions show?
6 What does 1,5 billion stolen Russian money to Ukraine mean?
These are the questions we shall consider today.

 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zc58isQD4CY

Posted by: unimperator | Aug 10 2026 20:42 utc | 89

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 10 2026 20:29 utc | 87
 
It’s so bad, even PBS was called in on damage control
 
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The woman suspected of trying to kill a Ukrainian business tycoon in a bombing attack in Monaco last week was found dead in Ukraine with gunshot wounds to the head, Ukraine’s Security Service said on Tuesday.
A Ukrainian military intelligence officer confessed to killing the bombing suspect, Anastasiia Berezovska, with the help of a former law enforcement officer, said the security service, known as the SBU. The military intelligence officer said he acted on his own and without the knowledge of his superiors, the SBU said.
***
“I hope it will not have a serious impact. But our allies deserve an explanation,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, a lawmaker from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s party.
“The unusual thing is that the perpetrators were caught so quickly. That could be interpreted as evidence of a swift and effective operation by our law enforcement agencies,” he added. ***
 
hahahahahahahahha. And now for something completely different: 
 
Monaco’s Prosecutor General has confirmed that the Principality is actively cooperating with Ukrainian authorities over the attempted assassination of businessman Vadym Iermolaiev and his family, in the first official statement from the office since the case took a dramatic international turn.
The communiqué, received by Monaco Life on Friday 7th August, comes after both Iermolaiev and reports quoting Ukrainian authorities raised concerns that Monaco was not participating in a joint investigation into the 29th June bombing. ***
 
So Monaco is hiding the mastermind. Wow. Monaco bad. 
 

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 20:56 utc | 90

🇷🇺🇩🇪 German owned company, Kromberg & Schubert has suspended operations after strikes by the Russian MoD on its facility in Zhitomir.
 
The company specialized in the production of cable systems, electrical components and plastics, employing over 3,500 workers.
 
A new reality for all western companies in Ukraine, for so long the Kremlin was silent on your contribution to the conflict, all EU’s facilities in Ukraine are legitimate targets.

Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 10 2026 21:26 utc | 91

We know the UK has been helping Ukraine with their navy drones. I wonder if the Russians are aware of this:
 
Cyber vulnerability sweep picks up Royal Navy drones sending data to China
 
Didn’t the Russians capture a navy drone intact recently?
 
From the article:
 

An MoD spokesperson told The Reg: “A thorough investigation found no evidence of MoD data or systems being accessed, compromised or transmitted externally.”
 

That’s ok then, however all anybody need do to detect an incoming drone is to listen out for a ping aimed at a Chinese server.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 10 2026 22:12 utc | 92

*** The company specialized in the production of cable systems, electrical components and plastics, employing over 3,500 workers. ***
Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 10 2026 21:26 utc | 91
 
The company specialized in the production of military adjacent cable systems, electrical components and plastics, employing over 3,500 workers. 
 
Fixed it

Posted by: frithguild | Aug 10 2026 23:41 utc | 93

Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 10 2026 22:12 utc | 92
knowing the starlink routing
 you probably guess where it is….

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 11 2026 1:10 utc | 94

Posted by: rk | Aug 10 2026 17:52 utc | 70
They express their thoughts thru elections like everyone else. Or protests. So no problem.
You meant to say “free and fair elections,” right?  I’m sure the EU leaders would respect the will of the Serbian voters./S
 

Posted by: Paranaense | Aug 11 2026 4:08 utc | 95

The entire UK political class appear to be pro war against Russia but Germany and France. From what I have, in Germany a lot of the pro war politicians will be voted out.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2026 19:29 utc | 82

And God willing – the brouhaha that resulted from the comments of Michael Martens of FAZ has unfortunately led to some netizens jumping to the conclusion that most or all Germans are like him – differences between the Anglo-controlled West Germany and the Soviet-controlled GDR are conveniently left out as if the split never happened and/or Germany has been sovereign at any point after 1945.
One of the more level-headed comments on X claims that

The absolute majority in Russia understands that this is the personal opinion of one idiot populist and that it’s not worth drawing conclusions about people in Germany based on it.
https://x.com/vor1an/status/2086233628678234498

Now it needs to be seen if that is the case and the thousands of angry netizens who think Stalin was too lenient in 1945 are a mere drop in the bucket.

Posted by: joey_n | Aug 11 2026 4:58 utc | 96

A nice overview of the fabled Russian Operational Arts and its proponents.
 
Why Russia Advances Slowly: A Century of Russian Operational Art from Svechin to Gerasimov

Posted by: Suresh | Aug 11 2026 5:30 utc | 97

employing over 3,500 workers
Posted by: MiniMO | Aug 10 2026 21:26 utc | 91
 
In the past, Putin loved Germany so much it looked like he’s a manager controlling occupied Russia. In present day he offers gas thru the remaining NS pipe while his government says Germany has become the main supporter of Ukr after Us moved to second place. What’s wrong in this story? 
And he even started to supply UK thru the ice because why not? ( en.topwar.ru/287819-kitaj-zapuskaet-reguljarnyj-kontejnernyj-marshrut-v-britaniju-cherez-sevmorput.html )
Now I’m supposed to believe German interests were affected and in a blown up 3500 factory there were not hundreds dead instantly? Not plausible. It was either empty or another fantasy story to keep the Russians thinking there’s some smo going on, like the videos with drones hitting already demolished houses. Or the photos of some smoke on unrecognizable distant ships in Black Sea that never sink.
That reminds me how Slavyangrad still copy-pastes the daily Ukr propaganda ( t.me/Slavyangrad/172848 ) and the almost daily burning Wildberries ( t.me/Slavyangrad/172871 ) so maybe the Bard of Baku is correct, these guys could be Ukr psyop.

Posted by: rk | Aug 11 2026 6:54 utc | 98

JRL @ 77, Frithguild @ 85:
 
My belief is that Anastasia Berezovska and the intended victims of the bomb attack were not supposed to have survived. Berezovska clearly expected a reward (cash most likely) for her part in the attack. Had the attack gone as planned, any story that could put the blame on Russia could be spun. 

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Aug 11 2026 7:57 utc | 99

S on new arena M active protection for armored vehicles 
 
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russian-arena-m-active-protection
The arena-M could be particularly useful for vehicles that go up-front doing two things, clearing mines and seeding smoke screens for a column to use…
 
something else , not on article, I’d like to discuss, lately FAB usage has been close to 270 daily
 
between over pressure and collapsed structures , FAB are 100%(ish) kill weapons. 
and you don’t kill flies with FABs. I’d assume it’s used for likely targets with a minimum of  4-6 AFU soldiers. 
So, I’d expect , even discounting 25% for physical targets (bridges etc ) 1.000 volatilized AFU… daily (500 as a bare minimum)
 
And I remember seeing something about RF hit mix on AFU being 50% good old artillery far deadlier than drones  , 25% drones mostly WIA and 25% FAB plain dead (but hardly any recoverable bodies )
 
small reminder, RF has drone parity, 5-10x more artillery and FAB exclusivity ….
 
Another, long term issue is that on average dropping 270 FAB means (let’s mix match them at 3 per sortie) 90 su-34 sorties, with another sortie for the escorting su-35. 200 sorties (maybe 150 if fighter escorts two bombers) maybe as many or more airframe/engine hours. Per day…
 
But 150-200 daily runs , within 50-100 km from LOC? No casualties means a level of air superiority bordering on local supremacy.

Posted by: Newbie | Aug 11 2026 10:19 utc | 100