A new NATO like agreement between three major Sunni states throws up various questions:
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign defence pact – MEE
Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defence agreement on Friday, connecting the three largest Muslim countries in the world under one security umbrella for the first time.
The deal, which has been under negotiation since last year, creates a significant new trilateral framework amid a deepening regional crisis following Israeli and US attacks on Iran.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the deal in Mecca in a joint ceremony.
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“The Agreement aims to bolster collective deterrence against all forms of aggression and stipulates that an armed attack carried out against any one of the three states shall be considered an attack against all of them,” the joint statement said. “The Agreement also provides for the development of defense cooperation among the three states in all its dimensions.”
The phrase “shall be considered an attack against all of them” is copied from Article 5 of the NATO Treaty:
an armed attack against one or more of them … shall be considered an attack against them all …
But the following parts of Article 5 spell out rather vague consequences:
… they agree that … each of them … will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking … such action as it deems necessary …
In contrast to popular believe Article 5 does not stipulate that all NATO would go to war because of an attack on one of its member countries. If a protest letter is ‘deemed necessary …’ to assist – that may well be it.
We do not know what consequences of an attack on one member are spelled in the new Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani agreement. I suspect that any of them will be even more vague than those in the NATO treaty.
I find it hard to understand how this new agreement could possibly have more than symbolic value.
Pakistan is currently in a conflict with the Pashtun people in its own country as well as with their brethren in Afghanistan. It recently had a clash with India which could soon resume. India is working on diverting the Himalaya water resources Pakistan needs to survive as a state. If that does not stop Pakistan will be, in a few years from now, pressed to go to war for its own survival. India, as well as Pakistan, are nuclear armed.
Neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia have any interest to fight against India or Afghanistan.
The Saudis are at war with Ansarallah in Yemen. The ‘Houthi’ have recently announced that they will blockade all Saudi seaports until the Saudis lift their long standing air and sea blockade on Yemen. Just yesterday they attacked military installations within Saudi Arabia as well as Saudi proxy forces in south-eastern Yemen.
Pakistan has already sent forces to Saudi Arabia. But these have been, so far, for purely (air-)defensive purposes. It is hard to imagine that Pakistan or Turkey would send their soldiers to join an unwinnable war in Yemen. (They will remember that in the 1960s Egypt received a bloody nose when it sent ground troops into Yemen.)
Saudi Arabia also hosts U.S. forces which have become targets of Iranian attacks. If the U.S. decides to attempt another bombing campaign on Iran the revenge strikes will hit Saudi assets. This could, in theory, trigger the new agreement. But Turkey as well as Pakistan have fairy good relations with Tehran. Any intervention from their side would be a risky and high cost endeavors. Their populations would perceive a war against Iran as taking part on the (very much hated) U.S. side.
It is therefore implausible that the new defense pact is meant for or will have any influence in the ongoing conflicts.
Pakistan’s interest in the agreement comes down to Saudi money which it needs to prop up its state.
Turkey wants to sell weapons. The clause on “development of defense cooperation” within the new agreement will likely mean new contracts for Turkish drone makers.
Saudi Arabia has become distrustful of its U.S. alliance. It is preparing for the U.S. to leave and is seeking other strong partners. In the longer run its potential enemy is likely not Iran but Israel or maybe even the United Arab Emirates, which have Israel’s backing.
While this new agreement may have no short term consequences it may however, over the years, develop into something stronger.
A sign for that would be the stationing of Turkish troops in Saudi Arabia to take up the bases the U.S. will soon be leaving.