News & views related to the war on Iran …
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August 6, 2026
Iran Open Thread 2026-168
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Making hay…
21 Mossad Mercenaries Arrested in SE Iran
August, 06, 2026 – 16:26
| Society/Culture news
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/08/06/3665187/21-mossad-mercenaries-arrested-in-se-iran
Posted by: Trubind1 | Aug 6 2026 13:33 utc | 3
Gaze upon the features of the antichrist.
https://www.starkrealities.net/p/join-us-military-kill-die-for-israel
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 13:35 utc | 4
For the moment—at least according to Western media—Trump has achieved his goal and managed to buy some time… oil prices are collapsing… the economy is calming down.
And that was precisely the greatest danger for him… A side effect of gaining time is that it allows for reinforcements; it provides the opportunity to work on Iran’s neighbors, forge alliances, and silence critical voices (such as Turkey regarding its F-35s)…If the channel is now made even somewhat navigable again… we might well be talking about the orchestrated collapse of Iran in about 10 to 15 years.
Time wears down any stone—or system. Whoever has time has time for sabotage, bribery, shaping public opinion, sanctions, and organizing resistance… and the USA will remain in its Middle East bases…
Posted by: genesiss | Aug 6 2026 13:36 utc | 5
@Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 13:35 utc | 4
The Entanglement. The Genocidal, racist, thieving, warmonger Entanglement. Truly, an antichrist by any measure.
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 13:39 utc | 6
Zionist huddle at Foggy Bottom:
Miliband says reopening Strait of Hormuz ‘essential’ as he meets Rubio
Danger Will Robinson!
Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 6 2026 13:41 utc | 7
Zionist huddle at Foggy Bottom: Miliband says reopening Strait of Hormuz ‘essential’ as he meets Rubio Danger Will Robinson!
Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 6 2026 13:41 utc | 7
“They reiterated their shared commitment to safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring Iran never develops or obtains a nuclear weapon.”
In other words, “the war must go on.”
“Israel” doesn’t really care about nuclear enrichment, it wants subjugation of Iran and the nuke issue is just a means to keep hostilities alive.
Even were the Strait of Hormuz to reopen to the satisfaction of all there is still “Israel” and its goals.
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 13:52 utc | 8
Join The US Military – Kill And Die For Israel
Once again, US service members are thrown into an unjust war for a foreign power
The title of the article, written in March, and linked @4 would be different today. The article was written before Israeli leaders told their people that if there is a ground invasion of Iran then Israel will sit back and watch US soldiers being sacrificed. No Israelis will join the ground invasion.
So the title of article from March would be different a few months later:
“Join the US Military – Kill and Die for Israel, because Israelis Won’t”
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 14:00 utc | 9
@two scents, 2 above:
What’s the slow-walk path for Iran? If ships pass, econ pressure abates. Leaves all current pieces in place (US economy, petrodollar, Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Israel) to mount next assault once they recover, restock, etc. Iran has to push US out, neutralize Israel, build trade and investment within BRICS and other neighbors free of interference. How is your slow-walk going to accomplish that?
And to Arch Bungle, 1 above:
What’s the make-hay checklist? What gets taken out well enough, and sufficient pressure applied to repoint US, Saudi, UAE, Israel, et. al on a more-permanent compass heading, and also to preclude shipping and financial meddling? Keeping in mind that any “deal” that gets made with the US will not last a moment beyond the point of ready-to-attack again.
Rest of the Bar: feel free. I’m interested to hear your assessment.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:03 utc | 10
If ships pass
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:03 utc | 10
—
Ships aren’t passing.
Selling naked future contracts has only made the unresolved oil-shock worse.
The total volume of oil flow has been reduced for years to come, and China has fully decoupled from the US $ energy market.
No hurries. No worries. It is all downhill from here.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:13 utc | 11
My checklist, fast or slow, is:
a. Get and keep the US bases in Mid-East vacated
b. Allow preferential passage of friendly ships. If the US interferes, it’s not Iran that’s preventing the trade.
c. Keep attacking unfriendly ships
d. Keep the Red Sea blocked until Saudi capitulates. All US bases out, any new construction is destroyed
e. Evacuate Jordan US bases. Rockets regularly till out
f. Israel out of Gaza, Lebanon, West bank, etc. No immediate withdrawal, then ports, refineries, etc. get rockets till out. Every week, some new rockets.
The general idea is to retain the initiative, keep the pressure on at all times, and strike immediately after the US et. al attacks. Any attack on Iran, the rocket schedule for the week gets new targets added.
Iran tells the West: we can go fast, we can go somewhat slow. Every week you vacate a new base, or rockets arrive. Any new econ, shipping, etc. obstruction gets implemented means more oil capacity (not shipping, but capacity to produce) gets taken off the table (for a long time. Not fast-repair stuff; many years repair stuff.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:14 utc | 12
@too scents: you said “ships aren’t passing”.
Isn’t the deal with Oman to allow ships to pass? It’s a “conditional passage” deal, right? Iran needs to keep the choke-hold applied, so the “conditions” have to enforce that.
And the US seems to be handling the supply shock well. I’m not hearing reports of accelerated SPR release, I see reports that diesel production and stocks are perfectly adequate in the US. I’m not seeing sufficient hurt on the US to get it to change behavior yet.
Got links to latest SPR draws, production (gas, diesel) in US, industry inventory stocks, etc. so we can gauge US hurt?
The “naked shorts” only get hurt when oil supply shuts off _to the US_. Not seeing that yet, are you? If oil deliveries were actually not happening, the shorts would get busted out pronto. Doesn’t seem to be happening. Why?
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:21 utc | 13
Selling naked future contracts has only made the unresolved oil-shock worse.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:13 utc | 11
—
repost … important video to understand fundamental change in the energy trade
32m35s backgrounder on China’s petroleum buildout.
CNOOC: How China Spent 20 Years Not Needing Us
The video presents an explanation for China leaving the US oil market.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:22 utc | 14
“Israel” doesn’t really care about nuclear enrichment, it wants subjugation of Iran and the nuke issue is just a means to keep hostilities alive. Even were the Strait of Hormuz to reopen to the satisfaction of all there is still “Israel” and its goals.
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 13:52 utc | 8
I would add that if there were no longer a nuke issue the Entanglement would demand that Iran give up its Comets (Shahab ballistic missiles) and more.
“Show me the enemy and I’ll show you the pretext for hostilities.”- Who?
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 14:26 utc | 15
Isn’t the deal with Oman to allow ships to pass?
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:21 utc | 13
—
“The deal” is hypothetical. There is no hurry. Time is on Iran’s side.
The missing oil will not be backfilled. Past volumes will never resume.
A longish (1hr+) video on oil prices.
The mid-terms trade ==> https://youtu.be/FammZzQJN-g
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:27 utc | 16
“Show me the enemy and I’ll show you the pretext for hostilities.”- Who?
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 14:26 utc | 15
Better still…
“Show me someone in my way and I’ll show you the pretext for hostilities.”- Otto
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 14:30 utc | 17
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:27 utc | 16
…“The deal” is hypothetical. There is no hurry. Time is on Iran’s side. The missing oil will not be backfilled. Past volumes will never resume…
Is Iran able to export oil? If not, then I would disagree with the notion that time is on its side.
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 14:31 utc | 18
Isn’t the deal with Oman to allow ships to pass? Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:21 utc | 13
As I understand the deal between Oman and Iran, in its current iteration, Iran controls traffic going in and Oman supervises traffic going out.
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 14:32 utc | 19
Is Iran able to export oil? If not, then
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 14:31 utc | 18
—
40+ years of sanctions has hardened Iran’s autarky.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:39 utc | 20
Is Iran able to export oil? If not, then I would disagree with the notion that time is on its side.
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 14:31 utc | 18
When people say this expression avout time, they are comparing relative ability to hold out over a period, and in this case I agree time does appear to be on Iran’s side, given the low American appetite for real conflict and the impact a prolonged closure of the strait will have on the USD.
Unfortunately, like catdog, every single post of yours is partisan ameribro ra-ra jingoist pseudointellectual dribble. Id love to be wrong – so contribute something that isn’t foolishly one sided boosterism. Or like Trump you can tell us again how much America has won for the 50th time. It definitely gets more compelling with the constant repetition, like mumbling priests insisting they have the True True.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 6 2026 14:43 utc | 21
@ too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:39 utc | 20
Iran was still exporting oil during the last 40 years. What is the present situation – does anyone know?
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 14:44 utc | 22
Drivel of course. I dont think youre a basketball player.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 6 2026 14:47 utc | 23
What is the present situation – does anyone know?
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 14:44 utc | 22
—
Watch the video I linked upthread @ 16
The mid-terms trade ==> https://youtu.be/FammZzQJN-g
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:48 utc | 24
@too scents, who said:
“The deal” is hypothetical. There is no hurry. Time is on Iran’s side.The missing oil will not be backfilled. Past volumes will never resume.
Apparently, Iran feels the need to consummate a deal with Oman, or they would be in active negotiations, with Iran regularly reporting “progress”. So Iran is motivated to – minimally – get Oman on-board. So there’s some form of time pressure that Iran is feeling.
Next: you have not sufficiently responded to my assertion that US oil stocks are not nearing “can’t deliver” status, which means that the shorts driving down futures prices are currently in no danger, e.g. can go on for “a while”. So there’s really no pressure on the US to change behavior. They can interfere with Iran shipping, fin txns, internal politics, get proxies to stir up trouble… for the forseeable future.
Per genesiss | Aug 6 2026 13:36 utc above, time and gradual force wears down all rocks. Iran needs to remove the force, and keep it removed, or they will eventually run out of political and economic resources to keep up the fight.
Recall that the Bar was discomfited with Russia re: slo-mo. Then Russia started actually using its levers (close Odessa port, for ex), and Russia did so after it was treated to the show Iran put on to (temporarily, so far) back the US out of its bases in the Persian gulf.
Iran has two levers: got missiles, controls oil flow (short and long-term). Those levers aren’t going to last forever.
Fast or slow, Iran has to effect permanent change. What its doing now (done so far) isn’t sufficient to achieve permanent change.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:49 utc | 25
Correction in 25 above: “would be in negotiations” change to “wouldn’t be in negotiations”.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:52 utc | 26
@25
Tom,
EIA report for 31 July. US crude stocks unchanged 2.4 mbbl draw from SPR, 2.4 mbbl fill to commercial. US crude imports up a bit still off from before war.
US crude imports can cover input to refinery at the expense of other countries.
Risk from world recession is an issue to consider.
Posted by: paddy | Aug 6 2026 14:55 utc | 27
Also picked up on Andrei Martyanov’s site. Courtesy of “Gankanas”. Vanessa Beeley documents the use of Ukrainian forces outside Ukraine.
“The Phantom Proxy: How the West Delegated the Dirty War in West Asia to Ukraine
“”More details on Ukrainian intelligence operations in West Asia in support of the US-Zionist war against Iran and the Resistance Axis
Aug 06, 2026″
Posted by: English Outsider | Aug 6 2026 14:55 utc | 28
you have not sufficiently responded to my assertion that US oil stocks are not nearing “can’t deliver” status
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:49 utc | 25
—
Watch the two videos I linked upthread.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:55 utc | 29
@Paddy: thanks for report, tracks with what I’m seeing. Yes, the oil squeeze is felt by rest of world, not US. So the pressure is going to be quite gradual. Might take a year or 2 to really bite here in US.
@too scents: thanks for the links. I have too much to do today to watch vids. Please – and I would really appreciate it – give us a bullet list of the main points from the vids.
and I’ll thank you again for your continued posts. We all benefit.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 15:03 utc | 30
give us a bullet list of the main points from the vids.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 15:03 utc | 30
—
From upthread
- Ships aren’t passing.
- Selling naked future contracts has only made the unresolved oil-shock worse.
- The total volume of oil flow has been reduced for years to come, and China has fully decoupled from the US $ energy market.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 15:08 utc | 31
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:22 utc | 14
significant data driven new info. Worth every bit of those 32 minutes. Thanks for the repost.
(now going to ride my bike to get raw milk from the farmer lady )
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 15:12 utc | 32
Aparently the deal between Iran and Oman is dependent on…
‘No out side interference’
We all know that meens america and israel.
Pigs might fly.
So this deal is another none starter.
So at best Iran buys a bit more time, until the enevitable US shock and awe attack on Iran.
Iran is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Its about Gaza, its about Lebanon , israel and america have sucssesfully moved the goal posts.
The insurence companys have said without US approval any ship going through this new aproved shipping lane will have its insurence canceled.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 6 2026 15:23 utc | 33
Do the Iranians understand why the US is so persistent?
Do they believe it’s just about support of Israel to control ME energy?
Likewise with Russia & China, do they understand the base motivations of the Reich?
It’s not just about global conquest as an objective to satisfy manifest destiny, a realization of self absent some other meaningful goal.
No, it links back to (true) AI – not this LLM nonsense, rather the promise that true SGI could free men of their physical bounds.
In this context, anyone not participating in the drive forward are essentially dead wood ie useless eaters.
And at current population levels and EROI, the weeds are encroaching on the garden.
Total global domination is a necessary prerequisite to implement population reduction and control, the classification and management of slaves to further the advances of science.
IOW, the reconstituted dream of the 1k year reich.
So back to my original question: does RIC comprehend the gravity of their situation?
Posted by: Hobbes | Aug 6 2026 15:24 utc | 34
PressTV.uk ”
Iran to launch most advanced National Primate Laboratory this year”
Purpose to to research Western aligned states (NATO, EU, Canadian, American, British and British, Argentinean, Peru and Australian/New Zealand’s, Phoenix and Line Islands (Kiribati)and Israel Genocidal Regime. Melanesian nations on the current RULES BASED ORDER
Progress at this study has accumulated 12 specimens from each group except for Phoenix and Line Islands (Kiribati). Apparently they have not been able to find one single gender of the 256 known genders that would qualify.
They did however find two gay penguins that are non co-operative.
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 6 2026 15:24 utc | 35
@ Doctor Eleven | Aug 6 2026 14:43 utc | 21
The irony here is that if I were posting from a pro US perspective, I would pretty much do what you are doing here. Shout down any discussion that could expose the true extent of US aggression. Mainstream media would have us convinced Iran is the aggressor, shutting down commerce and attacking neighbours while completely obfuscating that it is in fact the primary agreived party having endured savage military and economic attacks. Same thing with Yemen, Lebanon, etc.
Now I’m asking about a shipping embargo, because I’m pretty certain it would be a big deal for the Iranian economy, but somehow that kind of question is not appropriate according to you.
Remember, this is a bar, not a support group.
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 15:30 utc | 36
Toll bridge analogy: at one time toll bridge operators charged in both directions until someone with an IQ over 90 figured out you charge twice as much one direction while the other direction is free. Less expenses but the same revenue. Hormuz is a similar idea. No boat can exit if it hasn’t entered so the Persians need only control and toll one direction. Meantime, the joo owned yanks are lost and awaiting for instructions from tel aviv as to a path forward. The yids have to be laughing their asses off……
Posted by: 24ouncer | Aug 6 2026 15:33 utc | 38
And to Arch Bungle, 1 above:
What’s the make-hay checklist? What gets taken out well enough, and sufficient pressure applied to repoint US, Saudi, UAE, Israel, et. al on a more-permanent compass heading, and also to preclude shipping and financial meddling? Keeping in mind that any “deal” that gets made with the US will not last a moment beyond the point of ready-to-attack again.
Rest of the Bar: feel free. I’m interested to hear your assessment.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:03 utc | 10
From my perspective there is one, and only one action which is now critical for Iran:
Continue the rollback of American bases to israel itself.
Achieve a scenario where the only American bases in the middle east are those in occupied Palestine.
Why?
Not merely to push the Americans out of range.
Not merely to destroy American infrastructure around its borders.
But to provoke the Americans into either continuously exhausting their resources in counter strikes (if they take the bait), or making their humiliation on the global stage even more undeniable and explicit than it is now.
Nobody likes a loser, especially when the loser was meant to be the bodyguard.
Political foundations will be shaken, allegiances and trust will shaken. The vassals will begin to tremble, seeking new allegiances, new patrons to whore themselves out to, and consequently American power will die an imperial death in West Asia.
And the secondary reason is to consolidate the target on israel itself.
When every operation in the middle east must be conducted from an American base in occupied Palestine, when every retaliation returns to an address near Tel Aviv …
Thats when the Iranians force the israelis to decide if they are part of the American empire or not.
That’s when we find out which is the tail, and which the dog …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:45 utc | 39
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 6 2026 15:24 utc | 35
That is truly necessary and beneficial scientific research and addresses serious gaps in human knowledge in these times.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:50 utc | 40
Posted by: 24ouncer | Aug 6 2026 15:33 utc | 38
Also from notes of the draft agreement with Oman:
- Iran retains freedom to act on the outbound Oman path based on security needs.
- Iran’s Hormuz authority will be responsible for security and safety, so unfriendly vessels might still be stuck in a long queue to be safety inspected. (As China now does with Panamanian flagged ships)
- If fees are voluntary, see bullet above if no donation(required bribe) is made.
I think the agreement can be made to work well for Iran. Just need to be willing to shahed any vessel that’s doesn’t comply with the mandatory safety and security inspection.
Posted by: misplaced citizen | Aug 6 2026 15:51 utc | 41
Do they believe it’s just about support of Israel to control ME energy?
Posted by: Hobbes | Aug 6 2026 15:24 utc | 34
It is one and the same, because israel is the lynchpin of all the outcomes you alluded to.
World domination is the plan.
israel is the vessel.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:54 utc | 42
(now going to ride my bike to get raw milk from the farmer lady )
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 15:12 utc | 32
Don’t squeeze too hard …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:57 utc | 43
Is Iran able to export oil? If not, then I would disagree with the notion that time is on its side.
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 14:31 utc | 18
Yes, Iran is able to export oil. Do you have information to the contrary?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:59 utc | 44
On Iranian economy; submitting for consideration.
Before 1979 79% of Iranian economy depended on oil exports. Today, that number is less than 29%. (no links)
Iran has an opaque economy ( outside of 5-eyes purview). As a sanction busting measure, Iran relies on a system called Hawala (Havaleh in Farsi). A Rolodex of Haveleh-dar(s) that was shared with Russia.
I recommend people familiarize themselves with this system. A safe and sound system.
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Aug 6 2026 16:00 utc | 45
Iran was still exporting oil during the last 40 years. What is the present situation – does anyone know?
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 14:44 utc | 22
You can tell, because, very occasionally we receive reports about an Iranian tanker or tanker reported to be carrying Iranian oil, being struck by the US navy.
They can’t patrol the entire gulf and Indian Ocean, and they can’t stop middle of the ocean oil transfers.
This has been going on for decades so we know that the USN is unable to suppress the oil trade, just carry out symbolic actions against tankers occasionally.
If they hit one or two tankers every few months imagine how many successfully get through?
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 16:04 utc | 46
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 14:22 utc | 14
Excellent find.
Long story short: state strategic planning under communism beats financial capitalism, again.
The end of the End of History.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 6 2026 16:04 utc | 47
The insurence companys have said without US approval any ship going through this new aproved shipping lane will have its insurence canceled.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 6 2026 15:23 utc | 33
Result – Lloyds loses even more market share. There are plenty of ways to insure shipping using 87% of the world. 🤣
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 16:08 utc | 48
Do not miss this monologue by Nima on the big picture, very instructive to understand the situation in Iran
Nima R. Alkhorshid: The Middle East Dynamic Just Collapsed Overnight
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 6 2026 16:14 utc | 49
Posted by: 24ouncer | Aug 6 2026 15:33 utc | 38
Control of the straits have been a “must have” of every wannabe thalassocracy since the 17th century. To allow a passage you need the two side of a strait , to deny a passage , one side is enough.
Speaking of witch , the US seems keen to help Moroco to get back Ceuta (About Gibraltar strait.)
Quote : Morocco.—The Committee continues assistance for Morocco in support of United States national security interests and directs not less than $20,000,000 under National Security Investment Programs and not less than $20,000,000 under Foreign Military Financing Program.The Committee notes the historic alliance between the United States and Morocco, as formalized in 1786 by the Moroccan-American Treaty of Peace and Friendship. The Committee notes that the Spanish-administered cities of Ceuta and Melilla are located in Moroccan territory and remain the subject of Morocco’s longstanding claim. The Committee supports efforts by the Secretary of State to encourage diplomatic engagement between Morocco and Spain on the future status of Ceuta and Melilla.
Awwwn , that’s nice … now , will you also help Spain to get back Gibraltar Mr ‘Murica ?
So , just to clarified : Melillia never was Moroccan to begin with (Fezzan before Spain and Umayad before that). Ceuta was Portuguese … someone want a side of a strait just in case …
Posted by: Savonarole | Aug 6 2026 16:16 utc | 50
Oil moving up in the futures but I don’t see any new news.
Posted by: arby | Aug 6 2026 16:17 utc | 51
World domination is the plan. Israel is the vessel. Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 | 42
For the ME; the two other theaters have different dynamics.
However, the larger issue is one of capability. The three essential components for success – offense or defense – is intelligence, organization and motivation.
Let’s assume RIC can match, equal or perhaps even surpass the West in terms of IQ and organization – I’m referring of course to the elite classes among leadership, science and engineering.
But how does an insular, defensive oriented society compete with the sheer desire of will of their opponent, the motivation to dominate, control and manage the entire globe?
Logically, at least to me, it appears that the advantage falls to the attacker, which can be ancedotally demonstrated by simply referencing the continual ebb and flow of empires. (No one remembers the losers except as a footnote eg Gaul.)
If that’s the actual case, then what do we conclude as the solution? Yes, dear readers, the “peaceful”, cooperative societies must adopt the very same anti-human, amoral, militaristized philosophies if they are to successfully defend.
Ultimately, we’re back at the concluding pages of Animal Farm, where we cannot distinguish any meaningful distinction between (former) adversaries.
Posted by: Hobbes | Aug 6 2026 16:18 utc | 52
@ Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:57 utc | 43
Congratulations! You just won the thread. 😁
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 6 2026 16:20 utc | 53
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Aug 6 2026 16:00 utc | 45
So this is an Islamic version of the Knight’s Templar money scheme – allegedly they ‘invented’ international banking, though it seems more likely they learned it during the Crusades.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 6 2026 16:23 utc | 54
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:59 utc | 44
Yes, Iran is able to export oil. Do you have information to the contrary?
Well there have been many soundbits indicating that Iran is in fact under a US embargo. So I did a quick search and came up with a recent Financial Post piece. I’ll refrain from posting it here as it could be construed as endorsement of American aggression by the Keepers of the Good Word that roam this schoolyard.
Posted by: robin | Aug 6 2026 16:24 utc | 55
Mark2 | Aug 6 2026 15:30 utc | 37
Lay off the weed.
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 6 2026 15:24 utc | 35 That is truly necessary and beneficial scientific research and addresses serious gaps in human knowledge in these times.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:50 utc | 40
I live in Newmarket, Ontario Canada.
Justina Trudy ” Pierre Trudeau’s illegitimate son by Maggie and Mick Jagger’s love child from Toronto’s very iconic bar was conceived in the Men’s washroom
Pierre is restive in his Montreal Grave…
I do one custom rolled aficionado Joint a day…sometimes just half of one.
I hate cigars and cheap liqueurs
I love fine Italian Brandy and $160 CAD FINE Madeira wine. That is 94.04 euros plus 32% vat is 211.20 CAD I’ve only ever bought 1 bottle which lasted 4 years.
Yummy yummy in my tummy.
Life is Beautiful is a great movie as well as in life.
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 6 2026 16:33 utc | 56
Amazing really. If you believe some of the, ahem! posters here, Iran is losing the war and will fold any day now, while the US empire has ‘plenty of missiles’ ( © D.Trump) and is producing more heavy oil than it can handle. In the same story, the F35’s have more new super-duper radars than they have planes to fit them into, F35 maintenance is easy, US shipyards are over stocked with subs and new destroyers, which are far superior to Chinese ones, all USN sailors are eating so many gourmet meals that they can’t find clothes big enough to fit them – (true for the officers, anyway), and D. Trump is the sanest and most reasonable and pacifist president ever. Elon Musk is a genius, B. Gates is a true philanthropist, etc. etc.
What are these people on?
Posted by: Jams O'Donnell | Aug 6 2026 16:33 utc | 57
Norwegian@49:
“Do not miss this monologue by Nima on the big picture…”
Excellent. Thanks for posting.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 6 2026 16:36 utc | 58
What are these people on?
Posted by: Jams O’Donnell | Aug 6 2026 16:33 utc | 57
They are on the nasty,,,nasty side of the evil marda.
last post for me…feel depressed that Arch got the Gold already.
Hell not even a silver or Bronze for.
Time to cut the grass out front.
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 6 2026 16:39 utc | 59
@ Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:57 utc | 43 Congratulations! You just won the thread. 😁
Yup. Fast or slow, that spells it out very well. Those are indeed good objectives.
Now to the “how”. Iran needs to keep the initiative, and keep pounding while it’s got missile advantage. The problem with these temporary pauses is it stops momentum. Next step is announce weekly missile attacks (not where, but when) with no letup until, as Arch points out, all the bases save Israel are vacated.
Momentum matters a great deal on all fronts: the physical time to move material, the psychological effect (rout them, make them flee for their lives), the lack of time to collect info and plan based on it.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 16:39 utc | 60
@Angelo | Aug 6 2026 16:39 utc | 59
Angelo – Arch has been at it for years. Come back tomorrow, and get some more batting practice.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 16:41 utc | 61
Wow Kurt Volker sky news. Tonight UK…DT is stuck with this war and situation is worse than when he started. Will probably “revisit” again after mid term elections.
Posted by: Jo | Aug 6 2026 16:43 utc | 62
Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency has shared the initial text of the proposed ‘Strategic Control of Hormuz Act’ being prepared for Parliament
NOTE: This is a separate Iranian parliamentary law, in addition to the agreement between Iran and Oman.
1. The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, Israel, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.
2. Shipments related to Israel, whether military or civilian, will not have the right to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Vessels or cargoes that play any role in actions against the Resistance Front will also be subject to the ban.
4. Countries and individuals that have caused damage to Iran will not receive permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf until compensation is paid.
5. Heavy fines, including up to 20% of the value of the cargo, are planned for violators.
6. The government will assume responsibilities such as guiding navigation, monitoring vessel traffic, and protecting the security and environment of the Persian Gulf, in cooperation with the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic.
This draft is still in the review stage, and the parliament has asked experts to submit their suggestions for completing it.
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/35765
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 16:47 utc | 63
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 14:14 utc | 12
Many observers believe that causing the destruction of oil production capacity, the kind that “takes years to repair,” as you put it, is one of the goals of Trump’s war.
And that is likely one of the reasons why Iran is in no rush to do them that favor.
Iran bears no grudge against the entire world and has no interest in depriving the global economy of oil for years.
It is America that wants this for its own interests, that actually needs it.
There are plenty of other strategic targets and objectives capable of punishing the aggressors and their accomplices, many targets that have not yet been hit.
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 17:01 utc | 64
BP british petroiliam.
Profit margin has doubled in the last year.
Posted by: Mark2 | Aug 6 2026 17:05 utc | 65
@Sebgo, 64. Concur re: Iran not wanting to harm non-combatants on global scene. That’s why I advocated for selective passage for some ships, fits with too scents’ post at 63. That principle / goal seems to be well-understood by Iran’s gen assembly of lawmakers.
Regarding the “plenty of other targets” point you made. I’d be very interested to hear what, in general, e.g. the type of target – you’re alluding to.
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 17:09 utc | 66
the destruction of oil production capacity, the kind that “takes years to repair,” as you put it, is one of the goals of Trump’s war.
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 17:01 utc | 64
—
The tight correlation of energy costs with bond yields should disabuse anybody of the idea that production capacity is being destroyed deliberately. It is nonsense.
You’ve said you background is in energy. See the video I posted @ 14 for China’s petroleum emancipation.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 17:09 utc | 67
https://x.com/tiberiusfiles/status/2084907849382260826
Tiberius @tiberiusfiles
Israel has broken so many records in its genocidal campaign, and now it sets a new record: it has created the biggest single funeral in history
The common benchmark of evil in history was Nazi Germany, now it’s Zionist Israel
—————————–
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2085374777389117449
MenchOsint @MenchOsint
⭕️ ⚡️The Yemeni Armed Forces (AnsarAllah) fired Ballistic Missiles & Drones at Saudi mercenaries gatherings in the areas of Al-Rawik, Al-Ubour, Al-Thaniah, and other camps belonging to 1st and 3rd Emergency Brigades, claiming hundreds of casualties. – Statement
Posted by: michaelj72 | Aug 6 2026 17:18 utc | 68
Congratulations! You just won the thread. 😁
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 6 2026 16:20 utc | 53
Sadly, for my least relevant post.
Ah, well. The bar could use some comic relief.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 17:18 utc | 69
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Aug 6 2026 17:09 utc | 66
Military. Logistics. High Tech. Energy intensive industries.
Very costly, harmful for America and locals, but not critical for the world.
For example, you don’t even need to destroy an aluminum plant.
If production is interrupted for a few hours and the metal solidifies, the entire plant is lost.
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 17:29 utc | 70
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 17:09 utc | 67
It’s not really as if they had a wide range of choices.
To put it briefly, projections indicate that America will be producing oil at a cost of $90–95 per barrel, while the market price stands at $75–85.
Driving up prices for everyone by using war under false pretenses may seem like an appealing solution to greedy, warmongering, and corrupt individuals, especially if it enriches the military-industrial complex and the major oil companies in the process.
But there are always other goals included, of course.
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 17:32 utc | 71
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 17:09 utc | 67
It’s not really as if they had a wide range of choices.
To put it briefly, projections indicate that America will be producing oil at a cost of $90–95 per barrel, while the market price stands at $75–85.
Driving up prices for everyone by using war under false pretenses may seem like an appealing solution to greedy, warmongering, and corrupt individuals, especially if it enriches the military-industrial complex and the major oil companies in the process.
But there are always other goals included, of course.
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 17:33 utc | 72
Sorry for double post.
I don’t understand what is the problem with editing today.
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 17:34 utc | 73
Strait of Hormuz: West-to-East Liquid Tanker Transits
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2085391797308502319
“From July 30 through August 5, 18 tankers carrying about 21.05 million barrels of liquids, 3.007 million bpd transited the Strait of Hormuz west-to-east, per Kpler.
Four of the 18 transits were Iran-linked, according to Kpler. Important: these are specifically west-to-east transits, meaning vessels leaving the Persian Gulf through Hormuz, not total 2-way traffic…”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 6 2026 17:42 utc | 74
Nima R. Alkhorshid: The Middle East Dynamic Just Collapsed Overnight
Posted by: Norwegian | Aug 6 2026 16:14 utc | 49
Nima just pointed out how Iran International received over 800 million dollars to prepare Iranians for protests and riots. this is the news service that Psychohistorian is presenting here for info. Obviously a very questionable news source. Around 20 or 21 minutes in.
Posted by: arby | Aug 6 2026 17:43 utc | 75
partisan ameribro ra-ra jingoist pseudointellectual dribble
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Aug 6 2026 14:43 utc | 21
That’s the best description I’ve ever seen. Saved my day.
Posted by: Avtonom | Aug 6 2026 17:45 utc | 76
Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 17:29 utc | 70
I would suggest thinking past conventional arms.
Rather, focus on the AI trajectory. And no, not primitive LLMs that no one actually believes (will) work. (But do provide excellent fodder to which B can rebut.)
Consider autonomous AI agents contained within nano devices that can alter (personalities/allegiances), injure/incapacitate or kill.
Full spectrum clandestine (micro/nano) surveillance in conjunction with individualized genomic mapping to support customized targeting.
This just for mere starters; the only real player with the technical/IQ ability to challenge the Empire is China.
But they have to be hyper vigilant about losing key assets to the West, drawn by the allure of wealth, toys and women.
If you step back and consider the big picture, the macro view over just a generation or so suggests Russia & Iran are going to have real problems.
That’s why they are using their existing available time to secure their perimeter threats and go into full lockdown turtle mode. Thus the slow SMO, Iranian defensive posture, etc
Unlike the fan boys here, they understand the long game. Both RI can lose the game if they’re not careful, thus the strategic posture both are taking.
China is of course fully exposed – they can only win by achieving complete victory. They’ve certainly got the IQ and organizational abilities, but do they have the will power to prevail?
That’s the key variable I watch. If they waiver, buckle or fold, say hello to the 1k year juden Reich.
Posted by: Hobbes | Aug 6 2026 17:48 utc | 77
DW: Richard Wolff & Michael Hudson: ‘Bluff Called – Iran Stands Firm’
https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/streams
“The bill comes due: Trump & Netanyahu’s war spirals out of control.”
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 6 2026 17:50 utc | 78
4(now going to ride my bike to get raw milk from the farmer lady )
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 15:12 utc | 32 Don’t squeeze too hard …
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 15:57 utc | 43
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 17:50 utc | 79
Arch Wins the thread, the week, and the entire month with that post.
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 17:52 utc | 80
arby | Aug 6 2026 17:43 utc | 75 about my using Iranintl news to share here.
I view Iranintl like I view ZH and Reuters which I use to share as timely news aggregators and work hard at not sharing the propaganda or do so with qualifications.
I see other barflies re-reporting stuff I share from Iranintl hours and days later from other sources……and I am not going to “un-color” their characterization of timely events.
Below is a Iranintl posting I would not normally share but will because it shows why we might be back to war this weekend…hubris unleashed
16 minutes ago
US official says temporary Hormuz routes would have no approvals or tolls – CNBC
Any temporary shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz would operate without approvals, permissions or tolls, CNBC reported on Thursday, citing a US official who said passage would be “without any impediments.”
Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 6 2026 17:56 utc | 81
1. The passage of vessels belonging to the United States, Israel, and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz will be prohibited.
Posted by: too scents | Aug 6 2026 16:47 utc | 63
If true, then Iran has decided that this week, they feel like getting bombed some more. They’re like toddlers that immediately go back to misbehaving minutes after getting spanked.
Posted by: catdog | Aug 6 2026 17:56 utc | 82
Sadly, for my least relevant post.
Ah, well. The bar could use some comic relief.
Posted by: Arch Bungle | Aug 6 2026 17:18 utc | 69
That, of course, is why you won!
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 6 2026 18:06 utc | 83
@1 arch versus @2 too scents
Speed up. Slow down. It feels like we are settling in for another ukraine-like protracted conflict.
This can be viewed a couple of ways: as a reverse vampiric-force for the empire or as an opportunity to pilfer more from the imperial coffers, drive up inflation, and print, print, print.
I am beginning to side with Patroklos on the subject: until something happens, nothing has happened.
The great tectonic plates of history are impressed by no man. They lay in the grass and stare at the cumulus clouds sauntering by, echoing their own lack of care as they fiddle the dandelions with their prostrated arms.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 6 2026 18:07 utc | 84
You just know that the Israelis are going to pull some stunt.
Posted by: jpc | Aug 6 2026 18:15 utc | 85
Reposting this interview with Ali Alizadeh for some additional nuance to the present discussion and analysis of Iran strategic decision-making.
Syriana Analysis: Ali Alizadeh: ‘What’s At Stake’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLA8j3Tpj7Q
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 6 2026 18:21 utc | 86
Posted by: John Gilberts | Aug 6 2026 18:21 utc | 86
That one was better than I expected. Recommend.
Posted by: ChatNPC | Aug 6 2026 18:26 utc | 87
posted by Larry the cat/chihuahua bitch at 82
(gāyidan) is Farsi for …
https://www.tiktok.com/@sch_mehri/video/7630520672615238945
irrumabo off in Latin
(gāyidan) is Farsi for …
https://www.tiktok.com/@sch_mehri/video/7630520672615238945
va seva se foder in Pork and Cheese
cazzo in Sicilian mafioso
отвали in Putin’s evil communist regime
vá se foder
pruḥ ma’ḵa (ܦܪܘܚ ܡܐܟܐ) in the language of Jesus“Gei kakn afn yam!” in the “Gei kakn afn yam!” the genocidalists regime of the last 78th year of the the 3rd Nazi Reichin plain engrish – Pulp Fiction | ‘Say What Again’ (HD) – Samuel L. Jackson, John Travolta | MIRAMAX
just in the batters cage practicing … getting ready to take on Archie
va
irrumabo off
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 6 2026 18:26 utc | 88
I nominate Larry the cat/and the little barking bitch for the Gilligan Hat Award
Sharpening the blade on the lawn mower out front
Posted by: Angelo | Aug 6 2026 18:28 utc | 89
I am curious why China, India and Russia don’t form a common SPR or oil reserve system for the sake of ending the charade of Western sanctions.
The SPR could be physically located deep in China, with oil supplied by Russia over land routes (pipelines, rail) that would essentially be unreachable by deep strikes from either the US Navy or any Eastern European troublemakers.
India would get preferential status to buy any oil needed in case of idiotic, toothless Western sanctions. All transactions would be settled in Rupees, Yuan, or cryptocurrencies. Such a system would be easy to set up financially. The hard part would be establishing enough trust between China and India. As long as the oil is physically in China, India would need to trust that the oil would not be used as leverage over any outstanding disputes with China, such as border disputes along the Himalayas.
Keeping in mind that the China-India border would render any attempt by the US to embargo Russian oil deliveries to India functionally castrated.
The beauty of this system would be that in the future any oil transactions between China, Russia, and India would be sanction-proofed to the point of applying an aluminum baseball bat to the skull of the US treasury secretary.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 6 2026 18:28 utc | 90
Sebgo – “Driving up prices for everyone by using war under false pretenses may seem like an appealing solution to greedy, warmongering, and corrupt individuals, especially if it enriches the military-industrial complex and the major oil companies in the process.”
Not if it’s making $$$ for 10% of the masters but losing for the other 90%. Not everyone wins all the time, but in general, the empire corrects to the interests of the majority of the owner class. And high bond rates and energy costs are not in their interest …
Posted by: Caliman | Aug 6 2026 18:30 utc | 91
I am curious why China, Iran, and Russia don’t form a common SPR or oil reserve system for the sake of ending the charade of Western sanctions.
They already have , you just don’t know it yet.
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 18:34 utc | 92
If true, then Iran has decided that this week, they feel like getting bombed some more. They’re like toddlers that immediately go back to misbehaving minutes after getting spanked.
Posted by: catdog | Aug 6 2026 17:56 utc | 82
The only one who routinely acts like a toddler is Trump. Everyone knows it except you.
Iran’s message has been remarkably consistent. It only seems otherwise because you listen to Trump’s market manipulation messaging as if it’s factual.
Posted by: Centinel | Aug 6 2026 18:38 utc | 93
Congressional recess, how does that, if at all, affect war decisions?
I understand that the House is in recess right now, but the Senate is not, but will be soon. If Zios are going to do a false-flag against the Senate they are nearly out of time, else will have to wait a month. Guess the Zios will soon have to find another target.
Posted by: Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 18:49 utc | 94
Trump’s market manipulation
Posted by: Centinel | Aug 6 2026 18:38 utc | 93
Expect that to get worse over the next few days, Tuesday next week marks the start of the August round of US Treasury sales, starting with 3-year, 10-year and 30-year auctions all on the same day.
Wonder if there’s an ETF for popcorn suppliers…?
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Aug 6 2026 18:50 utc | 95
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 18:34 utc | 92
They may indeed have already set up such an arrangement. Certainly, the Western press would never report it.
Modi is the biggest question mark, in my mind. After he went to Israel the day before Taco’s illegal war, he seems suspect as far as a reliable ally for China. Perhaps, though, the course of events has changed his mind.
Posted by: Ghost of Zanon | Aug 6 2026 18:50 utc | 96
Posted by: Caliman | Aug 6 2026 18:30 utc | 91
I don’t think I’m making myself clear.
Or perhaps your fixation on financial markets is causing you to overlook the real economy.
In a few years, the US will face a choice: produce expensive oil or no oil at all.
“Preferring” cheaper oil won’t change that reality.
Conventional oil production in the country is nearing its end, and the remaining shale oil comes with high production costs.
If global prices remain low, investors, even with subsidies,won’t produce at a loss.
Consequently, the country will become a net importer, dependent on foreign sources.
And those foreign sellers might not always accept dollars printed “out of thin air.”
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 18:52 utc | 97
@ Otto Penn | Aug 6 2026 18:49 utc | 94
Congressional approval isn’t needed for the president to wage war, and it rubber stamps everything after the fact anyway. So it might as well be in recess — permanently even.
Posted by: malenkov | Aug 6 2026 18:56 utc | 98
Posted by: Exile | Aug 6 2026 18:34 utc | 92
I can’t recall if it was Shoigu or Lavrov, but a Russian official recently proposed a strategic reserve for the BRICS.
Karlof1, who follows these matters, should be able to shed some light on this.
Posted by: Sebgo | Aug 6 2026 18:57 utc | 99
Re: Common SPR ?
No need to formally have a joint-common SPR. All that needs to be is informal coordination between national SPRs. besides both Iran, Russia, and the PRC have ginormous reserves just waiting to be pumped out of da’ ground.
As for India – forget any real independence. India went from prime member of the non-aligned movement with deep economic ties to the USSR as part of its anti-colonial culture….to now being a full fledged vassal of the Epstein Class. There is a lot to unravel with that transformation…..
Posted by: exile | Aug 6 2026 19:19 utc | 100