The White House is eager to return to outright war on Iran.
According to the Wall Street Journal U.S. President Donald Trump requested new plans to attack Iran but was briefed (archived) that any attempt to do such was too much of a risk:
President Trump has weighed a return to all-out war with Iran, holding multiple conversations in recent days with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine on more strikes, but has decided to stick with diplomatic talks for now, according to U.S. officials familiar with the discussion.
The conversations have centered on whether the U.S. should abandon negotiations and resume full-scale attacks on Iran, the officials said, a move some of them describe as “finishing the job.”
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[T]he latest discussions suggest [Trump] is looking for ways to break the deadlock with Tehran and hasn’t yet ruled out a return to fighting.
All reasonable military options the U.S. got are still no better than they were when the U.S. filed for a ceasefire.
Iran’s deterrence, which comes in two forms, is still sufficient. Its ballistic missiles and drones are able to hit any target in the Middle East. Its ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz make any campaign against Iran a very risky endeavor. The consequences of a new blockade could easily ruin the global economy.
As Trump acknowledged weeks ago:
“If we go and bomb, which we can do very easily if we want, and we spend another two or three weeks bombing, they’ll have nothing left whatsoever, but you won’t have the strait opened for months.
At the same time Iran’s geography and defense capabilities make any attempt to invade or occupy even parts of it a suicide endeavor.
That said – Trump’s current reluctance to renew an attack on Iran is unlikely to hold forever. Even with a low chance of winning he well get enticed to again throw the dice.