The war on Iran continues to escalate. Last night the U.S. again bombed various cities in Iran hitting military as well as civilian targets. Iran responded by hitting U.S. installation in various Gulf countries.
Remarkable was an attack on the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia:
Iranian ballistic missiles struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Al-Kharj on July 18, wounding twelve US service members — two critically — and hitting KC-135 Stratotankers on the flight line while a second rotation was still climbing out. Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense Authority cleared the sirens six minutes later without naming the weapon, the origin, or the damage, and neither Riyadh nor Washington has issued an official statement since.
Several U.S. tanker air planes were damaged. For several months Saudi Arabia had not been a target of Iranian strike. During previous engagements the Saudis have lost a major parts of their air defenses. Out of an original stash of 2,800 Patriot air defense missiles only 400 are said to be left.
The U.S. had hit a desalination plant in Iran. In response Iran attacked a desalination plant in Kuwait which is much more dependent on such facilities than Iran is. The response strike was thus a very severe warning.
The U.S. has moved a large part of its air fleet out of its bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Emirates and transferred them to Jordan. Further reinforcement coming from Europe were also stationed in Jordan and Israel. Iran however has followed the move and attacked the Muwaffaq al-Salti air base in Jordan as well as U.S. installation near Akabar, Jordan’s only harbor. The strikes left extensive damage and several dead and wounded:
In the week leading up to the Iranian attack on Friday that killed two U.S. soldiers and left one service member missing in Jordan, Iran carried out three other strikes against U.S. forces in the country.
Those attacks injured dozens of U.S. service members and damaged several helicopters, according to several U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
But the Pentagon did not disclose the earlier strikes, nor the casualties and damage they inflicted.
It is expected that the U.S. air fleet will move further west to Israel with the hope to slip under a more reliable air defense umbrella. Iran however seems to be waiting for that. It has already proven that it can hit targets in Israel and any assemblies of U.S. jets and tanker air planes on the few well known air bases in Israel will be juicy targets for more of its drones and missiles.
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Several ships which have tried to run through it under U.S. protection were hit and severely damaged.
Today Ansarallah in Yemen declared the “imposition of a maritime navigation ban” for all ships related to Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have held Yemen under a blockade for some eleven years. It is time to pay back.
Oil tankers which have loaded Saudi oil at the Red Sea harbor of Yanbu will no longer be able to leave through the Bab al-Mandeb strait to world markets. The only outlet left for Saudi oil is the Suez Canal which can not be passed by the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) used today. The flow of Saudi oil to the world markets will thus be reduced from some 5 million barrels per day to about 1-2 mbpd.
The U.S. has no good option to change the course of the war. Any invasion of Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz would be prohibitively costly:
Retired US General Barry McCaffrey reckons a ground war over Hormuz would require a force of 600,000 troops and might take a year.
There is also a lack of munitions:
“The U.S. is planning for a wider war,” said one U.S. official familiar with internal administration discussions, adding that the Pentagon was increasing the number of military aircraft in the region.
But the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, cautioned that the expansion of U.S. operations will be limited by dwindling stockpiles of air defense and long-range munitions and constraints on the ability to surge more troops and aircraft into the area because of battle damage.
“We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the official said.
Further air attacks on Iran will not change the strategic picture.
The economic blockade of Iran will need many months to show some minor effects. Regime change in Iran is also back on the table (archived) but the chances to achieve it are meager.
Meanwhile demand for oil in the global markets continues to exceed the available supplies. Reserves are at minimal levels. Diesel and jet fuel are already very expensive. Gasoline and other oil derivatives will follow that trend.
Trump has lost the war on Iran. How long will take him to find a way out of the mess?