On Friday the 24th the U.S. unexpectedly stopped its bombing campaign on Iran. My hunch was that this was a sign of negotiations. However – Iran later denied that any negotiations with the U.S. were happening.
But it has joined the U.S. at this moment in not firing its weapons:
Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday. The development comes as the United States pressed pause on its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump’s advisers told him they were running out of targets and expressed worries about depleting the U.S. arsenal.
After 13 nights of intensifying U.S. airstrikes on Iran, the Pentagon suspended the campaign late on Friday, with no U.S. attacks reported on either Saturday or Sunday. Iran, which had been following each night of U.S. attacks with its own strikes on neighbouring countries that host U.S. bases, has also so far held fire for two days.
The Iranian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that Tehran’s position “remains ‘attack for attack’: if the attacks stop, Iran will also halt its operations. That message has already been conveyed to the United States.”
U.S. sources claim that the stop was initiated because the military was running out of air defense missiles. That may well have been the case. But the larger reason is that the U.S. strikes on Iran have not been effective. They did not induce Iran to change its position on its effective control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is blocked, oil can not flow, and higher prices at the pump will diminish votes for Trump’s party in the upcoming elections.
The U.S. military has only stopped for a moment – it has not ended its war on Iran. There are still more than 100 U.S. tanker airplanes in the Middle East together with additional fighter jets and special operations units. The U.S. could any time be back at full escalation.
Meanwhile the war continues on other levels.
On Sunday, in response to Saudi Arabian strikes on Hodeidah harbor in Yemen, Ansarallah forces attacked two Saudi refineries:
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis say they carried out operations targeting Saudi Aramco oil facilities in the southern cities of Jizan and Yanbu, according to a statement by the group’s military spokesperson Yahya Sare.
There is no immediate Saudi confirmation, though footage shows plumes of black smoke rising into the air from the Aramco refinery in Jizan.
Saudi Arabia earlier issued brief warnings to residents in Jizan and Yanbu after the Houthis vowed to retaliate against the kingdom for attacks this week.
Both refineries are currently still burning. While the Yanbu refinery is an older one, the new Jizan (also Jazan) project, at the Red Sea cost near the Yemeni border, is a very valuable asset:
In 2006, Saudi Arabia drew up ambitious plans to build a new industrial city in Jazan, in the far south-west of the Kingdom. The main aim of this initiative, the Jazan Economic City Project, was to expand the economic development of the region.
At the heart of the project is Aramco’s fully integrated Jazan Refinery and Petrochemical Complex — the result of an estimated $21 billion of investment — which, when operational, is expected to produce both high-value products, and power, in a more sustainable way.
Today Saudi Arabia said it was additionally attacked by drones from Iraq which were aimed at its east coast petroleum assets. Fire was detected at the ARAMCO processing facility at Abqaiq in the eastern Saudi desert. This is the world largest crude oil processing facility.
The Saudis will see these attacks as coordinated by Iran and executed by its proxy assets. The attacks come on top of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the Bab al-Mandeb outlet of the Red Sea by Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s oil output is severely diminished. It is in for a very big squeeze.
Another sideshow happened in the Caspian Sea where a Ukrainian drone attack damaged an Iranian ship that was transporting goods to Russia. No such attack could have happened without U.S. intelligence information. Its effects though will be nothing more than a PR stunt for Ukraine’s acting president. Iran will, when time comes, retaliate against him.
Where is the U.S. going from here?
The USrael has lost its war on Iran. It does not have the will and means to defeat the country. Geography is Iran’s asset. It can control the Strait and the oil flow through it no matter what the U.S. or Israel try to do.
Trump had already acknowledged that when he, in mid June, had signed the Memorandum of Understanding. He however immediately ignored several of the agreed upon clauses: Trump continued to threaten Iran, there was no ceasefire in Lebanon, Iran’s exclusive right to control the Strait was ignored and Iranian assets withheld by the U.S. had not been released.
Soon thereafter the U.S. reinstated its blockade of Iranian traffic and resumed its bombing campaign. Iran again blocked the global oil flow by closing the Strait.
Trump may now try to reinstate the MoU as it had been agreed six weeks ago. Iran will of course reject such a proposal. It will at least demand that the U.S. fulfills ALL clauses of the MoU down to the letter BEFORE it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
To get out of his current dilemma Trump will have to push Israel out of Lebanon. He will have to remove his forces from the Middle East and will have to pay out Iranian assets.
It is hardly conceivable that he will do any of this.
This week the Prime Minister of the Zionist entity Bibi Netanyahoo will again be in Washington and meet with Trump. His aim will be to again push for regime change:
“We see that Trump is interested in reaching an agreement,” said Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence commander and an Iran specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “Israel doesn’t want to hear about an agreement, so there is no alignment of interests,” he said.
Israeli leaders view returning to war as preferable, he said, because any U.S. peace agreement with Iran will strengthen the regime in Tehran that they want to see toppled.
…
What goes on behind the scenes between the two leaders, however, has proved to be inscrutable and surprising at times. Mr. Netanyahu has managed to influence Mr. Trump in the past, analysts say, and it can be impossible to know if the pair are at loggerheads or in cahoots.
My current assumption is that Trump, under Israeli influence, will soon try for another military intervention. Only when that fails, as it is likely to do, will he finally be ready to concede defeat.