News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
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July 19, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-152
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Ukraine and World Affairs (Including Iran/ME): Weekly Update, 17th July 2026: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs (Including Iran and ME): Weekly Update
Posted by: The Busker | Jul 19 2026 13:20 utc | 1
Nearly Half Of Poles Now Want To Stop Arming Ukraine, Andrew Korybko, Jul 16
The reason is Poles’ radically shifting views towards Ukraine since the start of their spiraling dispute sparked by Zelensky’s state-level glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits.
Picked up by Tyler Durden.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 19 2026 13:36 utc | 2
And couple of days at AFU casualties above 1500, and weeks near 1500.
meanwhile a lot of major advances.
fresh Marat , but yesterday’s also worth checking if you didn’t
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-july-18th-883
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 19 2026 13:41 utc | 3
Russian court pundit Vladimir Solovyov, who for years has been smearing Russian critical thinkers as “whiners,” “panic-mongers” and “sixth column,” has finally had enough of it (source in Russian):
Who is responsible for our domestic air defense system? Is there a single person who commands all the services that exist—whether in uniform or without it, civilian or military? Someone who receives reports on every strike, analyzes them, draws conclusions—and then changes happen. All stakeholders gather, determine whose mistake is whose, what needs to be done, what needs to be purchased, and how much it should cost. Not the insane sums paid to a highly respected individual who has long been producing something completely inappropriate for today’s times. Instead of saying, “We deeply respect you, but let’s manufacture your products en masse, see how they work, and make sure they don’t cost the insane amount of money that it can’t possibly cost even in a drunken delirium, but something completely different,” let’s distribute the resources across the production line. And at the same time, let’s send all these representatives of the mega-regulator, who are incapable of anything but complaints and understand nothing of today, far away—for them, there is no war. Instead, we’ll begin direct treasury funding for everything needed for the front and for Victory.
Weapons supplied by the West—marked “Made in Ukraine” or whatever—will increase, and increase rapidly. This means the approach to air defense shouldn’t be “oh, we’ll just sit back and pretend it’s not our responsibility,” but a systemic understanding. Organizational changes are needed, a return to effective forms of governance in times of crisis. A State Defense Committee with special powers must be established, there must be representatives of the Stavka, the Stavka itself. There must be a Lavrenty Beria in charge of the entire project, to whom everyone reports. And not like now: my friends go to China, study effective interceptors, but they’re told, “You’re businessmen, you can’t buy something with a warhead. Defend yourself, but only with something that can intercept kinetically.” What the hell? And when you try to import it into Russia, you’ll be charged duty and all taxes.
Are you serious? Why? Why isn’t this issue being addressed systematically?
Posted by: S | Jul 19 2026 13:47 utc | 4
Posted by: S | Jul 19 2026 13:47 utc | 4
Calling Solovyov “Russian court pundit” is an outright display of idiocy, complete ignorance, or malevolence. Who are those “Russian critical thinkers” ?
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 19 2026 13:56 utc | 5
Meanwhile Russian defense industry finally starts producing “steel nets”—a (relatively) cheap way to protect oil refineries, power stations and other critical objects against long-distance horizontally approaching drones (but not against ballistic missiles and potential “diving” drones):
Oil storage facilities and substations are being covered with Pautina: Rostec tests are underway (EADaily, July 16, 2026 — in Russian)
Tests of a comprehensive anti-drone protection system for oil storage facilities, substations, and other strategic facilities are underway in Russia. Rostec has stated that modular metal structures can be rapidly developed and scaled up. Experts believe it is now necessary to prepare for protection against heavy drones and missiles.
RT-Proyektnyye Tekhnologii, a Rostec company, has unveiled its first comprehensive anti-drone infrastructure protection system. The state corporation stated that the product was developed in partnership with Standart Elektrik and is currently undergoing pilot testing at several fuel and energy facilities.
“Comprehensive anti-drone protection allows for the construction of a continuous, robust net around the facility to ‘catch’ drones. In its basic version, it can stop a 200-kilogram drone flying at 250 kilometers per hour. Furthermore, the Pautina’s defenses can be significantly enhanced without additional development. The solution can protect oil storage facilities, fuel terminals, electrical substations, warehouses, and other facilities from most long-range drones used by adversaries. Combined with Rostec’s other anti-drone solutions, including electronic countermeasures and kinetic weapons, the system provides a high level of security for critical civilian infrastructure,” said Aleksandr Nazarov, Deputy General Director of the state corporation.
The Pautina system can protect objects over 25 meters tall and of any size, Rostec explained.
“The protection system consists of load-bearing columns, a net, and supports. It is assembled using bolted connections only and requires no welding, allowing for installation in confined spaces and in areas with increased fire hazards. This reduces costs and increases the speed and safety of installation,” the state corporation reported.
As Vasiliy Zuykov, CEO of RT-Proyektnyye Tekhnologii, noted, comprehensive anti-UAV protection can be applied to facilities of any complexity due to the ability to quickly develop and manufacture additional components.
“All metal structures receive factory-applied anti-corrosion protection through hot-dip galvanizing. This eliminates the need for the customer to paint the structures during installation and operation, significantly reducing costs and extending the product lifecycle,” he said.
This year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been carrying out large-scale attacks on oil refineries and oil depots, forcing some refineries to undergo unscheduled maintenance, and fuel production has declined. Many regions have imposed restrictions on sales at gas stations.
Maksim Shaposhnikov, advisor to the Industrial’nyy Kod management fund, notes that the Pautina system protects against a drone weighing 200 kg, which is slightly smaller than the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ UAVs that can reach Russia.
“We see how quickly the enemy is progressing, so we need to aim at 400–500 kg. However, the double contour of Pautina may work quite reliably for the time being—for the next year or year and a half,” says Maksim Shaposhnikov.
According to him, technically, creating the necessary steel structures for the Pautina supports will not be a problem for the domestic ferrous metallurgy industry: there is spare capacity and experience in producing building structures.
“The question is the technological feasibility of the net itself. This is not yet clear, but most likely, the designers have considered the issue of production feasibility, so today this technology appears promising. Of course, it will not provide a 100% guarantee of the safety of facilities, especially given the adversary’s acquisition of heavy missiles. But, at a minimum, Pautina could significantly complicate the task of destroying important industrial facilities. If the issue of installing the product at industrial and fuel and energy enterprises can be quickly agreed upon with regulatory authorities, then it is entirely possible to equip most of the country’s enterprises with such systems within a year,” believes the advisor to the Industrial’nyy Kod management fund.
Posted by: S | Jul 19 2026 14:10 utc | 6
I see those Ukrainian Nazi criminals /Nato hit the Russian equivalent of AMAZON killing several and wounding others yesterday, what are you doing about it Mr Putin?
Posted by: Englishman | Jul 19 2026 14:11 utc | 7
Who are those “Russian critical thinkers” ?
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 19 2026 13:56 utc | 5
Everyone who disagreed with the moronic “Russian Army has everything” line, everyone who warned that the enemy is getting stronger, not weaker, and that we are not sufficiently prepared for it. We were called “whiners,” “panic-mongers,” “sixth column” and so on. Now we’re reaping the fruits of that complacency.
Posted by: S | Jul 19 2026 14:25 utc | 8
what are you doing about it Mr Putin?
Posted by: Englishman | Jul 19 2026 14:11 utc | 7
Arresting critics of surrender apparently. The Ursula-style of censorship does not allow media to say more:
“The founder of the Paladin private military company was arrested for justifying terrorism”
en.topwar.ru/286531-osnovatelja-chvk-paladin-arestovali-za-opravdanie-terrorizma.html
Posted by: rk | Jul 19 2026 14:36 utc | 9
Rybar explains how Ukraine routinely exaggerates the damage caused by Russian strikes to acquire more Western aid and trick Russian military leadership into a false sense of success (source in Russian; emphasis mine):
The wailing about grainInfrastructure is “destroyed,” but exports have only increased
The Agrarian Union of Ukraine stated that Russian military strikes on port and grain infrastructure have destroyed approximately a third of the country’s export capacity—a figure that has already been widely reported in Ukrainian and Western media as a sign of an impending collapse of grain exports.
And the first thing that raises questions: this is not an objective audit of Odessa ports ablaze and ships sunk, but a statement from an industry lobby directly interested in attracting international attention, insurance payments, and additional assistance from Western partners.
Overall, the problem with this narrative is that it directly contradicts Ukraine’s own data. According to figures from the Ukrainian Grain Association, the first week of the new 2026/27 season saw 713,000 tons of exports—almost double the amount for the same period last year.
If the infrastructure has truly lost a third of its capacity, exports should be collapsing, not doubling.
We’ve already examined this pattern using the example of the Odessa ports: in June, the Ukrainian Union of Agrarians also declared a critical situation due to “systematic” strikes, but satellite analysis showed that the actual damage was extremely limited, and the largest oil depot and terminals remained intact.
A similar story occurred back in 2023, after Russia withdrew from the grain initiative. Kiev authorities cited huge figures for grain destruction in Danube ports, but satellite imagery confirmed only a fraction of the strikes, and in many cases, grain trade was not disrupted at all, even though the port remained formally intact.
However, the current relatively comfortable situation for Ukrainian exporters is not guaranteed for the future. For now, the ports of the Odessa region are being attacked primarily with Geran’ missiles with limited warheads, while the massive use of anti-ship cruise missiles is still being avoided. Oil depots—including the largest one in Odessa—have remained virtually untouched since the beginning of the SMO.
If this approach changes and strikes move toward truly systematic destruction of fuel infrastructure and vessels at anchor using anti-ship weapons, the actual damage to shipping and exports could become incomparably more severe than what Ukrainian lobbyists are currently claiming.
The pattern here is the same as we’ve already seen with the premature triumphant reports of hundreds of damaged gas stations and the annual talk of Ukraine’s “inevitable cold death” this winter: the enemy has well-studied the effect of loud declarations of its own suffering and is using it for two purposes at once: to extract more money and equipment from Western sponsors under the pretext of a catastrophe, and simultaneously to mislead the Russian command by creating the illusion of a far greater effectiveness of the strikes than is actually the case.
The only reasonable response here is not to be swayed by emotional figures from vested interests and the media, but to verify any claims of “damage” with actual export trends and satellite imagery.
Posted by: S | Jul 19 2026 14:43 utc | 10
Who is responsible for our domestic air defense system? Is there a single person who commands all the services that exist—whether in uniform or without it, civilian or military? Someone who receives reports on every strike, analyzes them, draws conclusions—and then changes happen. …… Are you serious? Why? Why isn’t this issue being addressed systematically?
Posted by: S | Jul 19 2026 13:47 utc | 4
What Vladimir Solovyov is seeking already exists – but someone needs to make a decision and get real first.
The exact institutional composition and bureaucratic hierarchy of the Russian National Antiterrorism Committee (NAC)—established under Federal Law No. 35-FZ “On Counteraction of Terrorism” and formalizing Presidential Decree No. 116—is structured as a rigid, highly centralized inter-agency vertical.
The NAC is a collegiate body designed to strip away departmental duplication by legally subordinating all other security organs, ministries, and regional administrative heads directly to the leadership of the Federal Security Service (FSB).
The precise composition, structural hierarchy, and operational arms of the NAC break down into three distinct, interconnected levels:
At the absolute apex of the bureaucratic pyramid sits the Chairman of the NAC. Law No. 35-FZ permanently anchors this role to the Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) (currently Army General Alexander Bortnikov)
The Centralization Matrix
Through this exact bureaucratic configuration, Law No. 35-FZ created an unbreakable loop of executive power.
By legally binding the head of the territorial FSB as the automatic leader of the regional combat headquarters, the law ensures that while local civilian governors (via the ATCs) are forced to foot the bill for security infrastructure, they retain zero actual authority over the deployment of armed force.
When a Counter-Terrorism Operation is declared, the regional vertical locks shut. The local FSB chief reports straight to the FOH in Moscow, bypassing regional politics entirely and giving the central apparatus total, unhindered administrative and military closure over any designated zone in the federation.
https://russiatruthdotcom.substack.com/p/the-natoankara-sycophancy-and-the-7f7
Hat tip to Jo.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 19 2026 14:52 utc | 11
(2) above a from a comment submitted to “b’s” site yesterday that was too long. The “Flash” source was the Simplicius site. Also here:-
https://antikor.info/en/articles/850463-ni_odna_sistema_ne_javljaetsja_idealjnoj_sergej_flesh_beskrestnov_raskryl_kak_ukraina_uznaet_o_puskah_raket
Many thanks to Paddy (97) for his information.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 19 2026 14:56 utc | 12
Why not bomb the bridges on the Dnieper, and the tunnels at the border , that will fix 40% of the problem , my 2 cents
Regarding the evolution of drone technology Russia vs. Ukrainian approach:
https://open.substack.com/pub/maratkhairullinarticles/p/welcome-marat-khairullin-july-18th?r=bclrk&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 19 2026 15:19 utc | 14
Last night in Kiev:
https://southfront.press/russian-forces-pummel-kyiv-in-mass-strike-targeting-defense-industry-logistics-hubs/
Posted by: Elmer Fudd | Jul 19 2026 15:22 utc | 15
Re: Posted by: Newbie | Jul 19 2026 13:41 utc | 3
meanwhile a lot of major advances. fresh Marat , but yesterday’s also worth checking if you didn’t https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-july-18th-883
What are these “major advances“?
From what I can see.
Russia has NOT captured Kharkiv.
Russia has NOT captured Sumy.
Russia has NOT captured Dnipropetrovsk.
Russia has NOT EVEN captured Zaporizhzhia! (Part of a Russian oblast/province).
Russia has NOT EVEN captured Kherson City (which it used to hold!) (Part of a Russian oblast/province).
Russia has not even captured Slovyansk/Kramatorsk!?!? (Part of Donbas!)
So, what exactly are these “major advances” you talk about? Which major cities have been captured in 2026?
Posted by: Julian | Jul 19 2026 16:00 utc | 16
The bottom line is that the commentators here have completely fallen for the propaganda of Zelensky and Western intelligence agencies…
It is a ploy designed to spread panic and to bait Putin into trying to put NATO in its place—perhaps targeting facilities in Berlin or Munich linked to Ukraine’s production capabilities.
Precisely such an attack would unite a NATO that is currently deeply divided and financially on the brink of collapse.That is exactly the goal: to give NATO nations a common enemy that compels them to strike back, rather than waiting until NATO—and Europe—are completely finished.
Putin simply needs to keep such idiots in check until the right moment arrives.
Posted by: Old tree | Jul 19 2026 16:14 utc | 17
I have ranted at this bar that sociopaths an dark tedrad personality types are drawn to the imunity that government work brings.
Here is an interesting discussion with Mercouris and Christoforus with Mel K about her book INFILTRATION INSTEAD OF INVASION. America Betrayed, 1944–1954.
As relevant to this thread, it is no surprise to any regular in this bar that operations in Galicia Volhynia have been ongoing since at least 1945. Mel K focuses repeatedly how immunity permits subversion. It may be tiresome to some, but this is why I always advocate for decreasing the franchise of government.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 19 2026 16:16 utc | 18
Old tree | Jul 19 2026 16:14 utc | 17The bottom line is that the commentators here have completely fallen for the propaganda of Zelensky and Western intelligence agencies…
Not “the commentators” but a well organized group of ranters, trolls, and NAFO activists. Some useful idiots fallen for their propaganda, too.
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 19 2026 16:29 utc | 19
Not “the commentators” but a well organized group of ranters, trolls, and NAFO activists. Some useful idiots fallen for their propaganda, too.
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 19 2026 16:29 utc | 19
It amounts to the same thing…
Propaganda always works; it just depends on the intensity and the duration…Take the USA, for example:
At least 95% of Americans still believe they are invincible and that they *always* wage war in the interest of humanity.Within the “Western bubble,” on the other hand, that figure is likely no higher than about 75%.And globally, everyone is probably laughing at it now…
It’s all a matter of the media; whoever controls it controls the minds of the cannon fodder.
Posted by: Old tree | Jul 19 2026 16:42 utc | 20
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 19 2026 16:29 utc | 20
A temporary distraction, though irritating. Sleboda sees it as a “psyop” and states it gets no purchase in Russia itself. It gets purchase in the West because we put a lot into information war. The real question is, how will the Western information war apparatus cope with defeat in Ukraine?
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 19 2026 16:46 utc | 21
A temporary distraction, though irritating. Sleboda sees it as a “psyop” and states it gets no purchase in Russia itself. It gets purchase in the West because we put a lot into information war. The real question is, how will the Western information war apparatus cope with defeat in Ukraine?
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 19 2026 16:46 utc | 21
I’m curious to see that day…
But they’ll find ways to spin it as a victory (look at the USA) or provoke a reaction via a false flag—and not just a minor one; it would have to be something bigger.
THEY NEED THIS WAR… AT ANY COST.
Posted by: Old tree | Jul 19 2026 17:08 utc | 22
Lol, Kasakhstan is not very happy about Khokhols’ attacks on their ships and oil terminal.
https://t.me/the_other_ukraina/58310
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 19 2026 17:24 utc | 23
As to what Putin should do about all of “it”? Maybe bomb London?
Posted by: Seer | Jul 19 2026 17:27 utc | 24
🇺🇦 Amtel logistics center, with an area of over 100,000 square meters, seems to have left the chat
It was the main distribution center that stored, assembled, and distributed components for the production of long-range drones for the whole Ukraine
🔴 @DDGeopolitics
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 17:29 utc | 25
Oddly enough, the attacks of the overweening enemy on the warehouses provoked a strong response – we’re pretty good at destroying military logistics and military-industrial complex facilities in Kyiv and Odesa with ballistics.
The main thing is to keep going. Stability is a sign of mastery. Overall, the Pig Reich shouldn’t have a military-industrial complex by definition; they haven’t earned it, and it’s time to get rid of what’s foreign: this industry was created under the USSR, which is now outlawed in Ukraine. Military and industrial logistics must also be annihilated. Demilitarization, after all.
… The Russian fireworks display isn’t over yet, and even the “Oreshnik” [cannon] we only fired was hollow. But that’s for now.
Subscribe to MAX
@voenkorKotenok
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 17:32 utc | 26
I see those Ukrainian Nazi criminals /Nato hit the Russian equivalent of AMAZON killing several and wounding others yesterday, what are you doing about it Mr Putin?
Posted by: Englishman | Jul 19 2026 14:11 utc | 7
Russia is destroying major Ukrainian warehouses back: “Oddly enough, the attacks of the overweening enemy on the warehouses provoked a strong response – we’re pretty good at destroying military logistics and military-industrial complex facilities in Kyiv and Odesa with ballistics. The main thing is to keep going.” – Voenkor Kotenok
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 17:34 utc | 27
English Outsider | Jul 19 2026 16:46 utc | 21—
Yes, the “attrition math box” remains acceptable, so there’s no need for Russia to escalate beyond Ukraine. Yes, Russia’s expanded its target list to hamstring NATO logistics within Ukraine. Few beyond Russian leaders understand its NATO versus Russia and has been since 1949 when NATO was conceived. Sakwa in his recent podcast appearances is advocating that view and even father back historically to explain what he calls Russian Hatred instead of Russophobia. Here’s his chat with Radika Desai.
Today’s missile strike on Kyiv destroyed the factory and warehouses of the Ukrainian company UKRTAC, a major manufacturer of military equipment.
This was announced by the company’s development director, Severion Dangadze.
He called today’s shelling “the greatest tragedy in the company’s history.”
According to publicly available information, UKRTAC produces body armor and other military equipment.
@infomil_live
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 18:03 utc | 29
A very interesting summary from the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding today’s entertainment events in the Odessa region and the Black Sea.
Port infrastructure was damaged by Onyx anti-ship missiles, air-launched cruise missiles and loitering munitions:
▪️ in the port of Odessa (state enterprise “Sea Trade Port “Odessa”) – a workshop for assembling long-range unmanned aerial vehicles and a parking area for fuel tankers;
▪️ in the port of Yuzhny (state enterprise Sea Trade Port Yuzhny) – a warehouse for military equipment supplied by Western countries to the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
▪️ in the area of the village of Novi Belyary (15 km northeast of the port of Odessa) – five tanks with fuel and lubricants intended for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In addition, the following were hit by Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles:
▪️ two bulk carrier type sea vessels with military cargo at the roadstead of the port of Odessa;
▪️ two seagoing vessels of the bulk carrier and dry cargo types north of Zmeiny Island, from which the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched strike unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned boats
Not only is the Odessa region receiving close attention, but also the newly mentioned damaged dry cargo ships and bulk carriers, which were converted to launch kamikaze UAVs and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This is extremely important information given the enemy’s ability to attack other targets from other seas and oceans.
Also noteworthy is the note that the strikes on the ships were carried out by Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft, which may be indirect confirmation of the use of anti-ship missiles.
The whistleblower
So Ukraine has been using the dry cargo ships and bulk carriers to launch UAVs.
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 18:09 utc | 30
karlof1 | Jul 19 2026 17:56 utc | 28
Do you happen to know if this conference about Russophobia published the speeches/lctures?
p.s. I haven´t listened to this latest Sakwa yet. But it appears – a bit – as if he has become much more realistic over time since early 2022 when I first saw him talk to Aaron Maté. Sawka was very depressed and at a loss of words.
On the other hand any scholar will project only a certain appearance in public.
And keep some “darker” thoughts to himself. Until he doesn’t.
Posted by: AG | Jul 19 2026 18:16 utc | 31
Posted by: Englishman | Jul 19 2026 14:11 utc | 7
Im so impressed with the mouth breather contingent who feel that attacking ‘amazon’ (wildberries) will compensate for the ongoing collapse of the UAF. Cope harder.
The whole hope is to piss off Russia more? Its imbecility writ large.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 19 2026 18:18 utc | 32
Posted by: Old tree | Jul 19 2026 16:14 utc | 17
Do you clowns think by endlessly recycling your pablum it becomes more persuasive? The brigade of dipshits here should put their money where their mouths are and go to the front, since Ukraine is ‘winning’.
Like Trump is ‘winning’. So much winning. Hahahah
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 19 2026 18:20 utc | 33
Disregard my last comment old tree. I’ve been driving for 12 hours and didnt get context. I agree with you 100 percent, apologies.
Posted by: Doctor Eleven | Jul 19 2026 18:23 utc | 34
It’s quite true that ordinary Russians are starting to get fed up with Ukraine’s constant harassing attacks – after all, everyone was told that in the first blitz, Ukraine had ‘saved up for months’ and that it would probably be a long time before they could mount another attack of such intensity. It doesn’t matter that few of Ukraine’s drones find a real target – for one thing, they are being curated by the west and the refinery attacks go to disable a particular coupler which is very difficult and time-consuming to replace, and somehow the one or two drones which do get through wreck this coupler. For another, these drone attacks should be deterred by Russia’s response, and they’re not. This is merely battlefield fire suppression writ large, and if they’re not keeping their heads down, you need more fire suppression.
It is not a bit reassuring to learn Russia is adopting lots of nets to protect itself, because that’s the kind of thing you do when you have elected to huddle and hope the enemy gets tired out from kicking you – it’s the kind of thing Ukraine does, and Ukraine is supposed to be losing. It is, but the momentum of that message is being lost in a barrage of western propaganda. Russians appear to want to see more missile attacks rained on Ukraine until it gives up. The just-concluded action was successful and will mollify them for awhile, but they really are losing patience.
Ukraine, like Russia, is thoroughly penetrated with agents from the other side, and there seems to me to be no reason there could not be more wholesale destruction of western war materiel when it is entering Ukraine from Poland; there can only be so many routes, and agents should be able to provide tipoffs. Ukraine would have had to give up long ago, years ago, without support, and if it can be separated from that support it will wither. Attacking the foreign makers in their foreign factories is certainly within Russia’s capability, but the very fact that the west is daring Russia to do it should be a very good reason not to – the west wants Russia to lose, so it must reason that if Russia attacks NATO it will lose. I don’t think so, but I have no skin in the game and it seems to me if you do what the enemy wants you to do, you’re foolish. But there certainly could be major improvements in the Russian interdiction of war supplies entering Ukraine; a fairly good rate of destruction of factories is already in place, but although that might be more effective in the long run, I think immediate interdiction before the supplies reach any factories would be more damaging to Ukrainian and western morale.
If the west had any brains – probably no need to extend that thought further – it would realize that Putin is the most-effective restraint to an all-out war right now. Does the west really, really want that? No, it doesn’t – it is convinced if it just presses Russia enough it will give up, and then the west can ‘make a deal’ and go in and plunder it. That will not work and they should know it. But if somehow a hothead got in to replace Putin, and just pulled all the lanyards at once, the west would find out very quickly that what it thought it wanted was not what it wanted at all. There’s still a lot of places in the world I’d like to visit, and I am not interested in seeing rubble. Too late to try to stop it once it starts.
The real question is, how will the Western information war apparatus cope with defeat in Ukraine?
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 19 2026 16:46 utc | 21
An apt question indeed. The brainwash has been so effective, it’s almost impossible to fathom how the brainwashers will spin it when the inevitable happens.
From “normal people” I fear blatant rage and open hostility, if nothing else because they won’t be able to understand anything of the situation.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jul 19 2026 18:35 utc | 36
*** Sakwa in his recent podcast appearances is advocating that view and even father back historically to explain what he calls Russian Hatred instead of Russophobia. ***
Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 19 2026 17:56 utc | 28
Russian hatred is the grit that gives all western propaganda traction. Traction will be lost only after enough generations have come and gone after a societal disruption that women see as blameworthy (“[Y]ou shall not bow down to them or serve them, for I the Lord your God am a jealous God, visiting the iniquity of the fathers on the children to the third and fourth generation of those who hate me …” Exodus 20:5). As we can see from Polish sentiments, 1943 Volynia still matters 4 generations later.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 19 2026 18:37 utc | 37
Posted by: Julian | Jul 19 2026 16:00 utc | 16
“So, what exactly are these ‘major advances’ you talk about? Which major cities have been captured in 2026?”
The OP was not talking about “major cities”. You are shifting the goal posts.
As for major advances, over and above the recent liberation of Konstantinovka and Krasny Liman, why don’t you refer to the report cited?
Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Jul 19 2026 18:41 utc | 38
📌📌📌📌📌📌📌📌📌📌📌
A good podcast with Alastair Renfrew (critical literal theorist) goes over the history, defensive policy, and Putin’s doctrine.
Good bounce with Pascal, ideas and perspective.
Fact, I had forgotten that Putine was a guest in 2008 (President at the time) Nato Summit in Buchacrest where they held accessions for Georgie and the Ukraine. This is when the WAR was declared by the US/EU.
Fact, Naive Putine’s wife loved French theatre, hence the romance for joining Europe, and security agreements. Never say a ‘woman’ does not hold the man by the balls!
Russia’s Biggest FEAR | Prof. Alastair Renfrew 🪆
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kr5KgPnR6ow
Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Jul 19 2026 18:57 utc | 39
The real question is, how will the Western information war apparatus cope with defeat in Ukraine?
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 19 2026 16:46 utc | 21
That could well be the Mother Of All Blame Games, with various Wurlitzer MSM outlets all firing at each other:
- The Times: Trump blames the Biden administration
- The BBC: The EU blames Trump
- The Daily Mail: Britain blames the EU
- Le Monde: Within the EU itself, France and Poland blame Germany (there’s historical precedent for that…)
- Die Welt: Germany blames Britain
- Agnetha Fältskog’s Tight-Fitting Trousers: The Baltics, the Scandis and the Finns blame… ah, who cares? Nobody listens to them anyway…
Ukrainian people will certainly be blaming Zelensky and his gang of usurpers for the uncountable losses of their menfolk relatives, the brutality of the TCC and military units, and the complete collapse of living standards, though this won’t get widely reported, because the last thing the Western elites want is TV screens and media feeds full of footage showing angry street uprisings, lest people here start getting the same idea.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 19:13 utc | 40
Here’s an interesting piece I think many will enjoy, from an interesting site some may have forgotten.
https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2026/07/the-ankara-summit-natos-strategy-is-no-longer-victory-but-attrition/
A teaser: “The omission from NATO summits is striking because military strategy derives its coherence from the political objective it is intended to achieve. If the objective remains the restoration of Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders, the battlefield offers little evidence that this is becoming more attainable.
If the objective is Russian capitulation – a goal that several European leaders have at times implied or articulated in various forms – it rests on an assumption that is detached from both history and ground realities. The result is an increasingly open-ended strategy whose costs continue to mount even as the political objectives it seeks become progressively less attainable.”
I think the still-rational among us will agree NATO’s ever-shifting goal is indeed now shifting toward prolonging the war for as long as possible, and the author is correct that it has simply stopped talking about peace negotiations because it recognizes Ukraine is steadily getting weaker and there is no remaining reasonable possibility of ‘negotiating from a position of strength’. Therefore, Ukraine is to be simply consumed, to fight on until it can fight no more, doing as much damage to Russia as possible in the interim. A stellar example of the west’s deliberate ignoring of the possibility of unexpected consequences is its blithe assumption that an impoverished rogue failed state consisting of whatever remains of Ukraine that Russia does not take will constitute more of a threat to Russia than it will to Europe. Why would that be? Which direction will have more-porous and undefended borders?
The one point on which I would disagree would be the possibility that European nations will use Ukraine’s Patriot-manufacturing license to make all the parts for it so that Ukraine only does a lick-and-a-promise final assembly before blasting them off. This would in reality be no easier to do than for Ukraine to manufacture them itself, and would establish a terrible precedent for nations hostile to the west. As a reminder, Germany has had a license to produce Patriot missiles domestically since 2022, and has yet to produce a single one.
The one point on which I would disagree would be the possibility that European nations will use Ukraine’s Patriot-manufacturing license to make all the parts for it so that Ukraine only does a lick-and-a-promise final assembly before blasting them off. This would in reality be no easier to do than for Ukraine to manufacture them itself, and would establish a terrible precedent for nations hostile to the west. As a reminder, Germany has had a license to produce Patriot missiles domestically since 2022, and has yet to produce a single one.
Posted by: Mark | Jul 19 2026 19:17 utc | 41
Related to that, I’m reposting a link provided by @ English Outsider earlier today in the Week In Review comments:
https://stevejermy.substack.com/p/principles-and-practice-of-air-defence
It’s thoughtful stuff, well-written and well-based, indeed it puts a lot flesh on the bare bones of comments I’ve made previously about European (let alone Ukraine) vulnerabilities to a concerted Russian multi-vector missile attack, should the loudmouths in Brussels, who lack any real muscles, continue their provocation lunacy.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 19:29 utc | 42
Meanwhile Russian defense industry finally starts producing “steel nets”—a (relatively) cheap way to protect oil refineries, power stations and other critical objects against long-distance horizontally approaching drones (but not against ballistic missiles and potential “diving” drones):
Ukraines intensified long range drone development plan is going to run out of steam. Theyve done damage no doubt, but Russia was never going to surrender to it anyways and now they’re running out of time to use it as leverage for anything.
Same thing was medium drones like the hornet. Great first results then dropping as russia deploys resources against it.
I guess the 40 day offensive will be coming to close soon. I should try to calculate the ratio of expenses Ukraine uses for drones vs russia expenses in repelling them. I have a feeling its trending downward faster.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 19 2026 19:32 utc | 43
Telling the truth falsely (Propaganda technique): Marx was a jew. Marx created Marxism. Therefore, marxism is jewish.
Here is a perfect example of telling the truth falsely:
Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Jul 19 2026 18:57 utc | 39
Putine was a guest in 2008 (President at the time) Nato Summit in Buchacrest where they held accessions for Georgie and the Ukraine.
Therefore, Putin sold Ukraine to the west.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 19 2026 19:33 utc | 44
Rybar explains how Ukraine routinely exaggerates the damage caused by Russian strikes to acquire more Western aid and trick Russian military leadership into a false sense of success (source in Russian; emphasis mine):
Ah yes believing things you want to be true. The best lies are what people want to be true.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 19 2026 19:37 utc | 45
The best lies are what people want to be true.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 19 2026 19:37 utc | 45
Yup, see John Helmer passim…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 19:45 utc | 46
I think the still-rational among us will agree NATO’s ever-shifting goal is indeed now shifting toward prolonging the war for as long as possible,
Posted by: Mark | Jul 19 2026 19:17 utc | 41
There is a goal. Merz and others talk about keeping the war going until 2029. Why 2029? US elections and change of government. They are hoping that after 2029 and change of US government they can pull the US into direct war with Russia.
The jew is willing to forcibly conscript women and kids as well if need be – to the last Ukrainian….. Will be interesting to see where the current protests lead. This has been building for sometime from those initially avoiding resisting thee forced conscription to where more and more entire villages and town are coming out to save their men from the conscription gangs and now the protests.
Slaughter of Ukraine cannon fodder on the front line is now exceptionally high. The Europeans are desperate as they will run out of Ukroids before 2029. The Brits striking Russian oil – most drone production is going to that rather than the frontlines. Again an act of desperation. They want Russia to strike Europe so they can try and pull in the Americans with article 5.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 19 2026 19:52 utc | 47
There is a goal. Merz and others talk about keeping the war going until 2029. Why 2029? US elections and change of government. They are hoping that after 2029 and change of US government they can pull the US into direct war with Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 19 2026 19:52 utc | 47
Yes, that is something I’ve been thinking as well, the Europeans wanting to extend the conflict beyond the Trump residency.
There are two risks though, at least as I see it:
the first being able to sustain the conflict, resource-wise, that far out, and the second being the US political system delivers up what the Europeans are hoping for. At this point in time,there’s no guarantee the 2028 US presidential campaign won’t descend into factional violence, even bloodshed and deaths.
Europe is stuffed, and has been for a long time, but a few connected “opinion influencers” still benefit from not acknowledging that reality.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 20:10 utc | 48
Addendum: the thought also seems to prevail in Europe that Russian weapon development will somehow be magically suspended while efforts are made to extend the conflict.
Instinctively that feels unlikely, to say the least…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 20:16 utc | 49
Same thing was medium drones like the hornet. Great first results then dropping as russia deploys resources against it. I guess the 40 day offensive will be coming to close soon. I should try to calculate the ratio of expenses Ukraine uses for drones vs russia expenses in repelling them. I have a feeling its trending downward faster.
Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jul 19 2026 19:32 utc | 43
To remember: It was similar with HIMARS GMLRS. They scored some impressive hits in the beginning, then dropped to interception rates north of 95%. All the same with western wunderwaffen.
As to the cost, a single “Liuty” long range drone costs about 250,000 $, and since June, in excess of ten thousand have been fired into Russia, with interception rates up to 99%.
Btw. 24 days of the clown’s 40 days are over. Last night with 140 drones the lowest number since start. Let us see whether this trend holds.
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 19 2026 20:18 utc | 50
@ 47 @ 48
It absolutely blows my mind that after everything that’s transpired, the RF still has chosen not to halt all export of enriched uranium, natural gas and other products to the EU and any country that is actively supporting attacks on them.
Yes, of course trade is down, sanctions bla bla but Europe is still getting 25% of it’s uranium from Russia through “special one time waivers” and third party intermediaries. The Global energy supply is in a ridiculously tight spot right now, Russia turning off the taps would have profound impacts and it would hurt Europe far, far more than it would Russia.
Now there is an argument to be made that of course they’re making good money on these sales, but I would counter any revenue they get is overshadowed by billions in damage and repair costs thanks to attacks enabled by those very same Customers. China would likely be all too happy to step in and help pick up the slack, likely yes some deals would be made in their favor for immediate relief financing but it’s a deal with a partner that isn’t actively providing weapons that are sinking your ships and offlining your refineries.
The best part about all of this is it would be totally bloodless. No article 5 mumbo jumbo, no military escalation. Just someone picking up the ball and choosing to go home instead of sticking around to continue playing a rigged game. Completely in-line with international “rule of law”- no armed attacks, spies or sabotage, no “dirty tricks” And they can claim force majeure as they have taken real damage to their production.
Russia would simply be saying “well you want to sanction us, here let us help you with that”
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Jul 19 2026 20:28 utc | 51
*** the first being able to sustain the conflict, resource-wise, that far out, and the second being the US political system delivers up what the Europeans are hoping for. ***
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 20:10 utc | 48
It has seemed to me that much of the RF strategy has been attritional, not just kinetics obviously, but more primarily financial. The assumption is the west has always run out of energy / financial capability when conducting a land war especially in Russia. It will this time as well is what RF planners probably believe.
Now come various drones each less expensive than an artillery round while being far more effective (“Every soldier is going to have a drone. And we will never fight another war without drone technology. Hands down.” at 28:17.).
A long time ago in this bar we called this conflict Drone War I.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 19 2026 20:34 utc | 52
Drones? Might be controversial, but drones are over-rated and over-hyped.
Drones still need raw materials, still need control chips, chips which need helium for manufacture, helium that not everybody has access to. Drones need batteries, need motors, again not everybody has access to the required metals.
“We can power them with IC engines!”, uh-huh, still going to need metal, and the fuel to drive the IC engine.
At best, drones are an adjunct to existing military capabilities, they are not a replacement for anything.
They certainly are not a panacea for European strategic and tactical military myopia.
[Columbo voice on]
Just one more thing, ma’am, who has the development advantage here?
[Columbo voice off]
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 20:52 utc | 53
Therefore, Putin sold Ukraine to the west.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 19 2026 19:33 utc | 44
Maybe it’s more a case of “You broke it, you pay for it. We’ll sweep up the mess for you”…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 21:09 utc | 54
Interesting comment on the youtube channel “Military Summary”
I am from Crimea, its west, Evpatoria We are having quiet nights since Odessa has been attacked , besides, the blackouts are getting shorter every day It was for two hours yesterday, and today as well The power plants are being repaired Those facts proove that drones and missiles had been delivered to Odessa by sea The work must go on Keep Odessa busy
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 21:19 utc | 55
“We are having quiet nights since Odessa has been attacked…Those facts proove that drones and missiles had been delivered to Odessa by sea The work must go on Keep Odessa busy”
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 21:22 utc | 56
Posted by: Old tree | Jul 19 2026 16:14 utc | 17
Precisely such an attack would unite a NATO that is currently deeply divided and financially on the brink of collapse.That is exactly the goal: to give NATO nations a common enemy that compels them to strike back, rather than waiting until NATO—and Europe—are completely finished.
That is the same logic as saying Russia can’t even take all of Donbass, will never get to Odessa but will invade all of Europe.
The same NATO is on the brink of collapse has been claimed for almost five years. And if you are claiming that Russia must wait it out while civilians are murdered and soldiers die unnecessarily then you are the same Putin cult/Ukraine cult, and frankly a typical heartless ghoul cluelessly strategizing from your sofa with the same echo chamber talking points.
You are in good company here though, the majority are absolutely mental. Enjoy the attacks because I’m not a true believer, lol.
Posted by: Roll up now | Jul 19 2026 21:30 utc | 57
AG | Jul 19 2026 18:16 utc | 31—
Thanks for your reply. IMO, Sakwa was radicalized by his own research as he discovered many historical facts he didn’t previously know along with what he saw being done by NATO. Some are able to learn from truth and facts while others refuse to be swayed from the dogma they were indoctrinated with. With many of the latter, it’s the money and placement that corrupts their minds, while the former have a stronger moral compass that allows them to modify their previous convictions and thus rise above the sewer.
@AG | Jul 19 2026 18:16 utc | 31
Pascal Lottaz has a good essay on this topic on his substack
https://pascallottaz.substack.com/p/on-russophobia
Posted by: cirsium | Jul 19 2026 21:45 utc | 59
The same NATO is on the brink of collapse has been claimed for almost five years.
Posted by: Roll up now | Jul 19 2026 21:30 utc | 57
I don’t think anyone here has directly claimed that. Some of us have indeed pointed out that NATO forces are surfing on the accumulated fat of past investments, and are now facing a steep shortfall in new developments actually making their way into existence before being truncated by the beancounters.
Some of us have also pointed out that the rapid expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe would ultimately handicap the decision-making processes, because of the sheer bureaucratic bloat, the flabbiness caused by over-exuberant expansion driven by the belief in the End Of History mythology.
As for the much-heralded Article 5, it was written by lawyers, not soldiers, with the implicit intent of giving weaselly politicians a get-out clause.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 21:45 utc | 60
Freshly listed mercs killed
Samuel Michael Pedrazzini from Australia
Vladimir Tomșa from Moldova
David Kukchishvili from Georgia
Jhonathan Steven Mahecha Ariza from Colombia
Ader Santiago Castellanos Rozo from Colombia
Mauricio Cañon Cardona from Colombia
Harriso Alex Hernandez Boscan from Colombia
Yeiner Javier Bayona Adan from Colombia
Wolgfran Andrey Suarez Galvis from Colombia
Juan David Viloria Suarez from Colombia
Jhonatan Hernandez Garzon from Colombia
Nicolas Martinez Arbelaez from Colombia
Luis Enrique Villabona Jaimes from Colombia
Jhojan Enrique Morales Gallardo from Colombia
Deiby Alfonso Gomez Quintero from Colombia
Cristobal Garcia Moreno from Colombia
Bladimir Lopez Moreno from Colombia
Juan Manuel Montoya Marin from Colombia
Rodrigo Pai Bisbicus from Colombia
Edwin Ariel Ramirez Iguera from Colombia
Nestor Adrian Barreto Fernandez from Paraguay
Edison Romero Gutierrez callsign Tolima Colombia
Angel Luis Galvis Carpio from Colombia
Tirson Rafael Pushaina from Colombia
Nicolas Mauricio Calderon Marroquin from Colombia
Brayan Alfredo de la Hoz Perez callsign Pinon from Colombia
Cristian Leandro Martinez Hoyos callsign Tejon from Colombia
Jeferson Guainas Ussa from Colombia
Jaime David Bastidas Nanez from Colombia
Bryan Alexander Soto callsign Sorner from Colombia
Fabian Nicolas Fernandez Espinosa callsign Kozak from Chile
Diego Simeon Salinas Martinez callsign Polaco from Paraguay
Jose Luis Cogollo Arnedo from Colombia
Ivan David Ortiz Davila from Colombia
Luis Alberto Vasco Arcila callsign El Loro from Colombia
Andres Felipe Garcia callsign Toxico from Colombia
Diego Cruz Ortiz from Colombia
Jhonatan Martinez Beleño from Colombia
Deivis Granados Vazquez callsign Kiana from Colombia
Yon Fredi Hurtado Velandia from Colombia
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 21:52 utc | 61
Article about the Australian merc who died:
Australian soldier Samuel Pedrazzini killed fighting Russian forces in Ukraine
An Australian soldier who helped train the Ukrainian military and then left the defence force to fight for Ukraine has been killed in a frontline Russian ambush.
Samuel Michael Pedrazzini, 26, from Lismore in NSW’s Northern Rivers region, was buried just hours ago in an emotional ceremony attended by his grieving parents and partner in Ukraine.
He had been with the Special Operations unit for only a month when he was killed on June 13 in the Donetsk region.
Local military officials have revealed Pedrazzini resigned his position as a specialist medic and combat instructor with the Australian Defence Force to travel to Ukraine and volunteer for the armed forces there in 2025.
According to local Ukrainian media, Pedrazzini was the only child of Leonie and Tim Pedrazzini, of Lismore.
The parents braved the high-risk journey to Ukraine to attend his military funeral overnight in Ivano-Frankivsk in the west of the country.
…
The Commander of International Forces for the Third Regiment, code-named “Alex”, said Pedrazzini was the ultimate professional soldier.
“He was simply astounding. He was a good machine gunner, he was a good marksman, a good medic,” the Commander said.
…
The Australian Defence Force has been helping train Ukrainian armed forces personnel in a UK-based mission called “Operation Kudu” which was established in early 2023.
The ADF specialists provide critical training in frontline combat, trench warfare, trauma care and leadership skills.
“At some point he realised he wanted to fight for Ukraine,” the Commander said.
“He wanted to defend its freedom and independence and then be part of this society.”
He was buried in the so-called “Alley of Heroes” in the village of Chukalivka.
His family told officials he wanted to be buried in Ukraine.
Ms Mstislav Taras, a Ukrainian Armed Forces veteran, said Pedrazzini joined the ADF at start of the Covid pandemic in 2020, serving in 7th Royal Australian Regiment based in Adelaide.
She said he was then deployed to the UK where he trained Ukrainian military personnel before resigning at the end of 2024 and heading to Ukraine.
Another colleague Vitalina (last name withheld) said he had told her of his decision to fight for her country.
“He said ‘I have the skills I want to use them, I want to help Ukrainians’,” Vitalina recounted.
“In one of his last voicemails, someone asked him if he was going back to Australia and he said ‘No, this is now my country too. I see my life in Ukraine.’
“That always surprised me so much but fascinated me at the same time.”
The Special Forces Commander said they had been on operations to clear Russians out of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine.
“We were doing a sweep, cleaning out homes in the village where the Russians were hiding,” he said.
“And it happened that one of them hid well.”
He said Pedrazzini was shot with a machine gun as he approached. The Russian then tried to run.
“Of course, we killed that Russian but we won’t get Samuel back,” the Commander said. “It was just very unlucky.”
…
https://7news.com.au/news/australian-soldier-samuel-pedrazzini-killed-fighting-russian-forces-in-ukraine-c-22593268
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 22:14 utc | 62
Posted by: Avtonom | Jul 19 2026 18:35 utc | 36
The brainwash has been so effective, it’s almost impossible to fathom how the brainwashers will spin it when the inevitable [Ukraine’s defeat] happens. From “normal people” I fear blatant rage and open hostility, if nothing else because they won’t be able to understand anything of the situation.
Here’s my impression of normal Norwegians: the 2022 Ukraine propaganda campaign was their first big one (the 2020-2022 Corona period was relaxed in Norway, compared to most other countries) and so many Norwegians swallowed it hook, line and sinker. There were two moments of noticeable disconnect between propaganda and reality for ordinary people, in my opinion:
1. Ukraine didn’t win. That was disappointing and people showed it.
2. A lot of Norwegian money has been sent to “Ukraine” and that led to cuts in domestic spending. Even folks who agree with supporting Ukraine are aware of this reality.
The one good thing is that the insanely high trust of Norwegians into their politicians is down to more palatable levels. Jonas Gahr Støre sits at 31% in the table that closes with Merz/Macron at 18%.
Posted by: Konami | Jul 19 2026 22:40 utc | 63
So, what exactly are these “major advances” you talk about? Which major cities have been captured in 2026?
Posted by: Julian | Jul 19 2026 16:00 utc | 16
king julian,go get glasses and butt fucked
p.s. as a general rule I don’t feed trolls, but as I’m often absent, will open a one time exception
p.p.a. (mostly for serious readers) the previous day’s marata explains how positioning at times overides taking towns
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 19 2026 23:55 utc | 64
I think the still-rational among us will agree NATO’s ever-shifting goal is indeed now shifting toward prolonging the war for as long as possible,
Posted by: Mark | Jul 19 2026 19:17 utc | 41
———————————————————————
It is not true that NATO has an “ever shifting goal”. The goal of the US and its weapon NATO has remained unchanged since 1945.
The goal of NATO has always been to destroy Russia and take all its stuff. This has been utterly obvious since mid 1990s.
Eric Zuesse also believes that. He has another new piece out today. Everybody should read it.
https://theduran.com/the-u-s-and-allied-plan-to-conquer-both-china-and-russia/
Posted by: acementhead | Jul 20 2026 0:10 utc | 65
I have no skin in the game
Posted by: Mark | Jul 19 2026 18:31 utc | 35
Me neither! Besides violence death and wars are not net positives.
That was an excellent even handed well reasoned thoughtful comment Mark. And it didn’t attack anyone else here directly or with innuendo. While remaining forcused on objective real events and the state of play.
One thing I’m curious about though is this ” Attacking the foreign makers in their foreign factories is certainly within Russia’s capability, but the very fact that the west is daring Russia to do it should be a very good reason not to “
Who is you have seen in the west daring Russia to strike factories in greater Europe? Were they politicians. nato leaders others with some representative authority? Because I have only seen people like Scott “Europe is a rabid dog” Ritter calling for direct attacks on Nato nations by Russia while endorsing Sergey Karaganov’s tactics against Putin. More than that he expected it to happen since May. I’ve heard of no European official endorsing Ritter and his Alt-group of experts (ex-US Military and CIA operatives) :narratives” have you? I might have missed that’s why I ask.
Are these guys the “western propagandists” deployed to unsettle Russian authority at home who everyone here are complaining about?
Also Mark “– the west wants Russia to lose, so it must reason that if Russia attacks NATO it will lose. I don’t think so, but I have no skin in the game and it seems to me if you do what the enemy wants you to do, you’re foolish. ”
That would apply to Ukraine as much to Russia then.
For example Mark – “Russians appear to want to see more missile attacks rained on Ukraine until it gives up. The just-concluded action was successful and will mollify them for awhile, but they really are losing patience (the Russian population.)”
Russia wants Ukraine to give u, accept Putin’s specific terms. Zelensky has stated clearly, and this is backed up by the Europeans throwing all this extra weaponry and drones at them asap, he wants to force the issue with these massive drone attacks to bring Putin to the negotiating table and hopefully bring on a ceasefire asap. FRrnkly absent specific evidence to the contrary, these “words” from both should be taken at face value, as a starting point.
Meanwhile Russia is deploying mosquito nets to cover all their vulnerable infrastructure. Like that’s going to to work, not. The drones, tens of thousands of them will keep coming. Unless suddenly Zelensky throws up his arms in exhaustion and surrenders to Putin, not.
Both are stuck between a rock and a hard place. People keep dying military and civilians. Neither have a rational exit strategy from this conflict after 4.5 years of death and destruction.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 0:27 utc | 66
They want Russia to strike Europe so they can try and pull in the Americans with article 5.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 19 2026 19:52 utc | 47
——————————————————————
Peter the US has been all in on destroying Russia and taking all its, Russia’s, stuff since Truman started the Project in 1945.
Eric Zuesse has a new piece out today. Worth a read.
https://theduran.com/the-u-s-and-allied-plan-to-conquer-both-china-and-russia/
Posted by: acementhead | Jul 20 2026 0:31 utc | 67
Me neither! Besides violence death and wars are not net positives.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 0:27 utc | 66
US has thrived on most of its wars – more land, innovations, more money & stronger & more in control.
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 20 2026 0:38 utc | 68
acementhead | Jul 20 2026 0:31 utc | 67
The US can’t and knows it cant so they will just throw the Europeans at Russia to “Make Russia pay a price” as they like to say.
The US is still putting in some funding targeting and intel, but my thought is they want Europe to tie up Russia while they try and defeat Iran then kick of a proxy war with China using countries in the region. And that too will be most likely to “Make China pay a price” rather than try total defeat of China.
Its about trying to destroy the economies of Europe, Russia and China and make US top dog again. Europe was as easy as taking candy from a baby due to there inherited hatred of Russia and corruption. Russia China and Iran for that matter are another story.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 20 2026 0:59 utc | 69
[Columbo voice on]
Just one more thing, ma’am, who has the development advantage here?
[Columbo voice off]
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 19 2026 20:52 utc | 53
Now that’s a high quality post right there!
The drone YouTube I linked to is Garand Thumb – former US military and certified YouTube “gun nut”. It is a pretty informative show. But, perhaps I let my guard down to an obvious source for “useful idiocy”.
I dunno – one would think that acoustic emissions would be a way to easily identify drone locations.
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 20 2026 1:07 utc | 70
We are having quiet nights since Odessa has been attacked , besides, the blackouts are getting shorter every day It was for two hours yesterday, and today as well The power plants are being repaired Those facts prove that drones and missiles had been delivered to Odessa by sea The work must go on Keep Odessa busy Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 19 2026 21:19 utc | 55
If that is accurate and applies overall to Crimea it “also proves” that Crimea was being attacked daily, the people there were not having quiet peaceful nights, probably were stressed from sleep deprivation, unending anxiety or fear, that the blackouts were happening every day over many days and directly interfering in their daily lives.
It should probably indicate once more drones are delivered to nearby regions like Odessa the daily nighttime drone attacks of hundreds of drones every day will restart all over again. I shared a Crimean news site here recently, then the issue was a major collapse of summer tourists, the severity of fuel shortages, the attacks / blockades on the transport routes to and from Crimea, the massive blackouts going on for days one end, and the few who came for holidays were quickly deciding to cut short their vacations and return home to Russian mainland.
No one here seemed interested in the content and comments provided by Crimeans or what they thought.
Apparently many here believe westerners all over the world connected only by IP addresses know more about what’s happening in Russia and what the Russians think about it, than the Russians do.
04.07.2026 Map of the tourist collapse of the Crimea 2026
https://ruinformer.com/page/karta-turisticheskogo-kollapsa-kryma-2026-goda
and see reader comments in EN https://en.topwar.ru/lastnews/
Contrary to popular beliefs here, what Ukraine has been doing of late has been very effective. The results so far the destabilizing effects are meeting the goals that were set for the 40 day launched in June operation. Various things are becoming more dysfunctional in peoples’ daily lives, not least the fuel shortages everywhere.
Deploying “mosquito nets” is a win for Ukraine, not a failure. It shows they are forcing Putin to react and redirect capital and resources to address the problems. It does not matter whose side you might be on, that is an obvious and overt clear fact. The reality has changed. Ukraine and Nato (and Donald Trump, Putin’s great friend) have forced it to change. They aren’t entirely powerless here.
I’ll repeat
Zelensky said the 40-day “influence and pressure operation” to compel Russia to seek peace, which began in late June. That UPTICK rate of drone attacks and missiles is ongoing and so far it has NOT been curtailed by Russia –– I say again> Nothing Russia is or has been doing is slowing down what Kiev are throwing at Russia daily..
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 19 2026 14:01 utc | 272
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 19 2026 4:09 utc | 252
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 19 2026 4:47 utc | 253
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 1:09 utc | 71
Russian Armed Forces liberate a village
https://en.topwar.ru/286568-vs-rf-osvobodili-selo-volnoe-prodvinuvshis-v-dnepropetrovskoj-oblasti.html
Reader Comment: HAM – The question arises: are the workers and engineers employed at the attacked factories in Kyiv a legitimate target? They are, in fact, military personnel… The guards and sorting girls at Walberis are not spared, but we somehow treat arms manufacturers humanely.
The US (as directed by Putin’s friend Donald Trump) will resume production of decoys to overload air defense systems.
The American company Raytheon announced that it is preparing to resume production of ADM-160 MALD air-launched decoys for the US military and Washington’s European NATO allies. Production is expected to take place both in the US and in an EU country. Raytheon also added that work is currently underway to upgrade the ADM-160 to accommodate additional payloads, including warheads.
At the same time, NATO is preparing a strike tandem of LCM Mk2 missile – DELUGE UAV decoys to penetrate air defenses — designed to overwhelm enemy radar and anti-aircraft systems
https://en.topwar.ru/286579-v-ssha-vosstanovjat-proizvodstvo-lozhnyh-celej-dlja-peregruzki-pvo.html
Reader Comment: belovvladimir (registered since November 1, 2021)
This is not a good read at all. I think we should follow the Iranian model, attacking Europe’s logistics instead of drawing lines, constantly swapping pencils for markers, enlarging only the line itself and that’s it. How long can we spend drawing? It’s time to warn once and strike again, otherwise they’ll soon be working on us. I don’t have a bunker, and I won’t have children or grandchildren anymore. It’s time to strike and not sit around and whine. I understand that right now I’m just filled with emotions, and there’s no point in waiting for them to grind us down and dance on our bones, there’s no point in waiting at all!
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in line with the US doctrine of weakening Russia
Back in 2019, the American strategic think tank RAND Corporation published a major report titled “Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground.” This document subsequently became Washington’s de facto long-term roadmap for systematically weakening Russia while avoiding direct military conflict.
Thus, it is clear that Ukrainian militants’ strikes on purely civilian infrastructure far from the front lines are directly consistent with the American doctrine of weakening Russia. These actions are primarily aimed at undermining the psychological stability and morale of the population and the public’s support for the state.
https://en.topwar.ru/286576-dejstvija-vsu-vpisyvajutsja-v-prinjatuju-ssha-v-2019-godu-doktrinu-oslablenija-rossii.html
Reader Comment: rocket757 (registered since 22 September 2017)
You’d think there was something else in the “Anchorage stench”… maybe not directly in it, but certainly behind it…
Reader Comment: credo (registered since March 21 2018 )
The US had been doing this long before this doctrine, and the fact that this doctrine has existed since 2019, as a supplement to previously existing guidelines from the State Department and other US and European think tanks, only indicated that the Anglo-Saxons set specific goals for themselves and do not deviate from them, but merely rework and adjust them based on modern realities.
Where are our long-term doctrines and our clear understanding that the enemy has no intention of retreating until it achieves its goal and tears Russia into small pieces?
Asian Tiger – Are these Russians online Nato Psyops Propagandists too?
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 1:36 utc | 72
Me neither! Besides violence death and wars are not net positives. Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 0:27 utc | 66
US has thrived on most of its wars – more land, innovations, more money & stronger & more in control.
Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 20 2026 0:38 utc | 68
And look at it now! Well, the yardsticks vary.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 2:08 utc | 73
The real question is, how will the Western information war apparatus cope with defeat in Ukraine?
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 19 2026 16:46 utc | 21
What an odd question. They’ll take in their stride without missing a beat.
All you need to do English Outsider is wait. Don’t get ahead of yourself and don’t count your chickens. This could go on for 20 years like Afghanistan which led to the status quo of 2001.
That’s the big problem with imagine you can easily predict the future. Yet people still never learn, do they English Outsider?
I mean look at Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 20 2026 0:38 utc | 68
Cannot compared when someone is talking about not taking sides and suggests “violence death and wars are not net positives.” MiniMO only as an example, nothing personal because it is so common, can’t get past imagining the only thing that matters is how the USA benefited from wars — ignoring the Net Cost to everyone involved on all sides of every war — the dead native Americans, the dead Syrians and dead Palestinians of Gaza, the 2-3 million dead Vietnamese for example are part of a not Net Positive equation.
The millions of dead Slavs and ethnic Russians all over Ukraine today are part of the same equation that keeps being ignored here. The total destruction of the place is a cost to bear too, these are part of the same rational perspective I’m pointing – as do others when then get mislabeled a brainwashed psyops trolls instead. But ‘we’ only care about how the western media might ‘cope’? Ha ha egg on your faces! Oh, please. Enough of this. Now please read MiniMO’s celebration of the dead list above and reconsider this stance a little more deeply holistically and accurately.
This is War not the FA Cup Final.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 2:47 utc | 75
karlof1 | Jul 19 2026 21:34 utc | 58
Indeed. One forgets that even historians/scholars after their tenure has ended can and do learn.
If they´re good.
p.s. Sakwa also had to endure that insane affair with Paul Mason…
Posted by: AG | Jul 20 2026 2:52 utc | 76
Various things are becoming more dysfunctional in peoples’ daily lives, not least the fuel shortages everywhere.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 1:09 utc | 71
They like it how it is and it seems that in very large part never cared about smo anyway. Have you seen millions to support it on the streets like in Iran or Yemen?
Putin was elected without fraud in the past 100 years. Everyone knows what he’s capable of, he’s not new, his general staff is not new, nothing’s new. Putin was elected again during the smo even though he spent half of it retreating, even after his own referendum. The lost territories are still not recovered but there was an Alaska surrender. What did he sign there if he doesn’t want the peasants who elected him to know?
To paraphrase the Bard of Baku, people get what they deserve for their votes.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2026 5:31 utc | 77
a YT Comment — I really appreciate Gilbert Doctorow’s analysis. He presents an alternative view about is happening in the world. That is essentially good. Otherwise we will be trapped in an Echo Chamber and that would be very dangerous for knowing the truth.
Russia is Losing the War with Ukraine – Dr. Gilbert Doctorow PhD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pPrOhzXPuE
Crimea – the new war zone 18 July
https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/crimea-the-new-war-zone
Zelensky is changing his military leadership too often. Putin is changing his generals too infrequently 20 July
https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/zelensky-is-changing-his-military
41 Missiles, 125 Drones : Russia’s BIGGEST Missile Attack? Kyiv Under Massive Fire | NewsX World
Russia launched one of its largest missile and drone assaults on Ukraine, targeting Kyiv with ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Explosions, fires, casualties, and widespread destruction renewed urgent calls for stronger air defenses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVI1_jbOUVI
See my air defense comment/s and Commodore Jermy.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 5:39 utc | 78
H/T to English Outsider for this new article on the Open Thread.
“First, more Western air defence missiles will not allow Ukraine to defend its skies. Second, the skies of European states are not safe from Russian missile attack, notwithstanding the NATO Article 5 guarantee. As the technical analysis of MIT Professor Ted Postol shows, I am not alone in this conclusion.” https://stevejermy.substack.com/p/principles-and-practice-of-air-defence
Begs the question — IF, according to Scott Ritter, academic Gilbert Doctorow is an MI6 asset of Nato, what makes retired Commodore Steve Jermy not one? Both are highlighting how vulnerable Europe is to Russian attack. Europe is indefensible. Doctorow one of many highlighting how vulnerable Russia is to Ukraine drone and missile attacks.
Jermy’s main direct experience looks to be from several defeats during engagements around the Falklands and Mediterranean. Still he does also rely on Postol’s work — “Challenges in Air Defence Technologies; If the operational and tactical challenges of air defence can be overcome, then success still rests on the ability of the air defence missiles (or guns) to strike their targets, and here the technological challenges are concerning. ”
“But the cost-differential was stark and unsustainable: by January 2025 the Navy had expended some 220 interceptors against 380 Houthi projectiles, at a cost near $2 billion for 2024 alone, against munitions costing a small fraction as much per shot[3]. On top of this came the loss of three F/A-18s during these operations.
“The available reporting suggests that, although in May 2025 President Trump declared victory after announcing a ceasefire, the departure of USN Carrier Strike Group and supporting European escorts was, in truth, a strategic withdrawal. Forced by cost-exchange imbalance and the concern that, sooner or later, a ship would be hit. A sobering shift in the operational calculus, given the Houthis are a non-state actor, far less capable than a peer-state’s military. ”
Russia is in different position. They cannot implement a strategic withdrawal. They’re there and going nowhere. Can a Jermy help? see my ironic comment by Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 4:32 utc | 32
Simultaneously applying imagination and logical analysis much can be gleaned from this article and the overall “narrative” behind it. “The ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function”, which I shared recently will definitely help anyone get the most out of it. At least I think so.
Jermy continues — “First, the assumption that additional Patriot batteries could allow Ukraine to defend its skies. It is surely clear that, if one of the world’s (apparently) most capable air defence networks and systems has not been able to defend its own bases in the Gulf nor those of its Gulf allies against attacks more modest than Russia’s, it is surely inconceivable that Ukraine can do better.”
Obviously Ukraine is in a bad spot. Europe is too if push comes to shove and Russia attacks Nato targets with their best hypersonic missiles. Yet Russia too is not out of the woods. Where do things go from here? Abject total surrender from Zelensky or a fast negotiated ceasefire by Putin?
Rock Hard Place.
Jermy concludes — “Having been under air attack, and later responsible for defending a task force against air attack, I do not say all this to alarm us, but rather to alert us. First, to the obvious waste of European taxpayers’ money about to be spent on (not) helping Ukraine defend her skies. Second, to the illusory nature of the air defence immunity our politicians seem to believe NATO provides us. ”
“So I hope that the operational and tactical insights here, on reality of our air defence vulnerability, can played into our politicians’ risk assessment as they choose to ‘ramp up’ their support for Ukraine’s missile and drone attacks deep into Russia. I also hope that such a risk assessment will, in turn, encourage our leaders and their diplomatic and military staffs to at least consider an alternative to the current pathway to war to which the E3 leaders appear determined to commit us. An alternative pathway called diplomacy.”
Except Zelensky and Putin (like the US and Israel) do not do diplomacy. They’re tough guys, they fight hard. They kill all people in the way. Same as the Israelis do. The USA does. Diplomacy and Ceasefires are for pussies.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 5:50 utc | 79
To paraphrase the Bard of Baku, people get what they deserve for their votes.
Posted by: rk | Jul 20 2026 5:31 utc | 77
Don’t they just. Thanks. You got good points there. We’ll see.
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 5:53 utc | 80
@ Asian Tiger | Jul 20 2026 5:53 utc | 80 who continues to have problems with context and perspective.
Is the enemy of Russia the same enemy of Iran and China?
None of your textual white noise seems to take any other geopolitical friction contexts into consideration…why is that?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 20 2026 5:59 utc | 81
Is the enemy of Russia the same enemy of Iran and China?None of your textual white noise seems to take any other geopolitical friction contexts into consideration…why is that?
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 20 2026 5:59 utc | 81
Good question, but the answer is: because he does not want to contribute anything sensible, just to derail discussions and support his fellow troll brigade members.
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 20 2026 7:43 utc | 82
Jonas Gahr Støre sits at 31% in the table that closes with Merz/Macron at 18%.
Posted by: Konami | Jul 19 2026 22:40 utc | 63
Thanks for your overview! It’s so laughable when Europeans boast that Putin’s support fell from, was it from 70 to 67% or something like that, when their own support for their leaders is under 20. Norwegians seem to be slightly more trustful but it’s also one of the most stubborn vassal states under the US.
Posted by: Avtonom | Jul 20 2026 8:19 utc | 83
The funny thing about the commentators who worship the supreme god Putin is that anyone who dares to criticize or point out uncomfortable truths is labeled a troll or an enemy agent;
it is no secret to anyone that the Russian bureaucracy is a slow, clunky system riddled with inefficiency, incompetence, pointless red tape, and corruption on an unimaginable scale—anyone who has experienced it firsthand can attest to this—
but let’s not mention that to the worshippers of the supreme god.
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jul 20 2026 8:44 utc | 84
The interesting question is what drives all these “non trolls” into a forum like MoA, to teach, in most cases simply insult the barflies. How retarded must one be to spot “worshippers of the supreme god” in a forum where a more nuanced perspective is discussed than in the NAFO circles those types are used to.
Why do I not feel the slightest urge to intrude those forums to harrass the people there? Do these “non trolls” feel like missionaries wanting to convert the heathens?
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 20 2026 8:54 utc | 85
Test. The filter’s taking out comments on communications. All open source and similar comments allowed past the Disqus filter. Might I try this section and see if this is the part the filter refuses.
“1. The Core Protocol: “Military Wi-Fi” (Link 16)
“The primary mechanism for directly feeding tracking data into Ukraine’s Western-supplied hardware is the Link 16 tactical data link protocol. [1, 2]
“Direct Integration: Ukraine signed agreements giving its units access to NATO’s Command and Control Center System Interface (CSI) digital platform. [1]
“Sensor-to-Shooter Network: This protocol allows NATO air assets (like AWACS) to bypass slow verbal channels and automatically beam tracking coordinates directly to Ukraine’s F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighters, as well as ground-based Patriot, IRIS-T, and NASAMS air defence batteries. [1, 2]
“Unified Picture: The missile data populates directly onto the pilots’ and battery operators’ digital radar scopes as live, trackable target indicators. [1, 2]
“2. The Cloud Infrastructure: NATO Classified Cloud
“To manage the massive amounts of electronic warfare, radar, and satellite data, NATO operates a dedicated, classified cloud network. [1]
“Data Fusion: Live telemetry from multiple independent NATO assets (AWACS planes, RQ-4 Global Hawk drones, and commercial or military satellites) is instantly pooled together in this cloud network. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
“Automated Processing: Artificial intelligence filters out noise and electronic jamming, consolidating multiple radar returns into a single, cohesive flight path map of an incoming Russian missile. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
“3. The Human Filter: Joint Coordination Centres
“Because NATO is officially a non-combatant, its central command structure cannot directly direct Ukrainian weapon strikes. The tracking data moves through a rapid legal bypass: [1]
“The Ground Station Middleman: Raw tracking data from a flying AWACS plane is beamed down via satellite or secure UHF/VHF data links to a NATO ground operations centre (such as the Joint Training and Coordination Center in Poland or bases in Romania). [1, 2, 3]
“The Allied “Flip”: At these centres, individual NATO member states (like the US, UK, Poland, or France) take the alliance-wide tracking data and immediately “flip” or transfer it to Ukrainian liaison officers via bilateral intelligence-sharing agreements. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
“4. The Last Mile: Delta and Ground Terminals
“Once the data passes from NATO nations into Ukrainian control, it is distributed across the country using Ukraine’s battlefield management systems: [1, 2]
“The DELTA System: Ukraine integrates NATO’s positional data with its own internal situational awareness program, DELTA. This system runs on secure satellite networks (like Starlink) and decentralized ground networks. [1, 2, 3, 4]
“Mobile Alerts: This ensures that even mobile air-defense groups (like troops equipped with MANPADS or truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns) receive advanced warning on secure tactical tablets detailing exactly where and when a cruise missile or drone will cross their sector. [1, 2]”
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 20 2026 9:06 utc | 86
Pubblicato da: aquadraht | 20 lug 2026 8:54 utc | 85
So, in short, your comment advises those who don’t worship the supreme god Putin not to voice their thoughts, so as not to upset the worshippers?
A bit like Lazio ultras daring to disturb Roma ultras?
And if someone is neither a worshipper nor an ultra, but simply expresses a point of view based on events that even a blind person can see—should they just sit quietly in a corner and leave the worshippers to their fond delusions?
Posted by: Cagliostro | Jul 20 2026 9:11 utc | 87
Why do I not feel the slightest urge to intrude those forums to harrass the people there? Do these “non trolls” feel like missionaries wanting to convert the heathens?
Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 20 2026 8:54 utc | 85
That’s right—it’s no secret that the system is still slow.
And considering the legacy Putin inherited and the sheer size of the country—something most people here haven’t truly grasped—yes, considering he took over a legacy of corruption that was in no way inferior to—no, absolutely on par with—the corruption in Ukraine… well, that is quite an achievement.
Why did so many generals have to go? Right, because they were corrupt; under Gorbachev and Yeltsin, any high-ranking officer could sell off anything they wanted, provided they cut in their superiors and local politicians.Civil servants were among the worst offenders…
Hey, you critics out there… the USA is no less corrupt, and its civil service and bureaucracy are no less sluggish—the only difference is scale; in comparison to Russia, the USA is the size of a parking lot outside Moscow.There is a difference compared to Western bureaucracy: in Russia, the “bad apples” get kicked out… whereas in the West, lazy civil servants are usually in leadership positions and well-protected by law.
Oh, and one more tip… include Putin in your evening prayers and wish him a long life.Because yours might depend on it…! Not because of his death—no, rather because of his successor.
Posted by: Old tree | Jul 20 2026 9:16 utc | 88
“b” – I’ve done a test to see if the filter allows material on NATO communications through. Open source material and permitted by Discus. The comments on the subject are numbered and appear for a time but then disappear. The test appears as comment number 86 above and contains a section that I think may be the section the filter refuses on the comments that disappeared.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 20 2026 9:17 utc | 89
Posted by: Old tree | Jul 20 2026 9:16 utc | 88
Agree 100%. Barring accidents we’re not going to see mushroom clouds and that is entirely attributable to the measured way the Putin team has handled this conflict. The Russians have their hawks too – don’t they just! – and what with our crazies and their hawks this could have gone downhill very fast.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 20 2026 9:27 utc | 90
It absolutely blows my mind that after everything that’s transpired, the RF still has chosen not to halt all export of enriched uranium, natural gas and other products to the EU and any country that is actively supporting attacks on them. Yes, of course trade is down, sanctions bla bla but Europe is still getting 25% of it’s uranium from Russia through “special one time waivers” and third party intermediaries. The Global energy supply is in a ridiculously tight spot right now, Russia turning off the taps would have profound impacts and it would hurt Europe far, far more than it would Russia.
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Jul 19 2026 20:28 utc | 51
JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS……..
Get the idea out of your head that the Russian government need the tax payments to fund the Russian government. They create and keystroke the rouble into existence. Case closed. They can create and keystroke as many roubles they need.
It’s all about JOBS.
Contrary to popular right wing beliefs. You can’t move people around like ignots of steel. Thatcher found that out when she closed the mines and stopped building ships and closed down low end manufacturing.
Humans have certain skills and they can’t click their fingers and learn new skills overnight. It takes time and sometimes years to learn a new set of skills in other sectors of the economy. If that happens to a lot of people all at once as Thatcher found out demand drops and unemployment spreads through communities like a virus.
Obviously some basic jobs are transferable between sectors but these generally end up being low wage jobs.
Think it through and you’ll understand why they haven’t suddenly stopped exporting. This is the heavy price you pay when you foolishly choose to persue an export led growth model as if you are still on a gold standard with a fixed exchange rate.
When they should have taken a more balanced approach with more domestic demand and less export led growth..
Here :
https://new-wayland.com/blog/its-the-exporters-stupid/
A lot of countries have fallen for the export led growth scam. It works so well for the West they have it embedded in the EU treaties and NATO charters and force new members to do it.
re frithguild’s posting – 18
“Here is an interesting discussion with Mercouris and Christoforus with Mel K about her book INFILTRATION INSTEAD OF INVASION. America Betrayed, 1944–1954.”
An excellent recommendation, well worth anyone’s time. I’m still reeling from some of the conclusions. Perfectly astounding
Posted by: jamesh | Jul 20 2026 9:54 utc | 92
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Jul 19 2026 20:28 utc | 51
The more of your own natural resources you send to others to improve their standard living the less you have for yourself to use to balance your own economy.
Trade isn’t about money as such it is very simply a swap of natural resources as goods and services. To improve each others standard of living.
Seen via that lens exports are a cost and imports are a benefit.
Russia chose to go down the export led growth route because they have an abundance of natural resources and they could swap those for things they don’t have or can’t produce themselves to improve their standard of living.
But what they found out very quickly was countries wanted a lot of Russia’s natural resources but had very little to offer Russia in the way of imports.
So Russia ended up hoarding a lot of foreign currency reserves ( that have now been frozen and stolen) rather than get more goods and services that they needed.
But they stayed with this policy because they thought if we keep providing cheap oil and gas eventually countries will develop quicker and improve their manufacturing and technology etc, etc . Eventually Russia will get what they need rather than horde bits of paper or gold in foreign central banks.
India is a perfect example of this. Russia has rupees coming out of their ears after providing cheap oil and gas to India. One day they were hoping India would develop So quickly that Russia would eventually get goods and services they need.
Russia has always taken a long term view.
But now that they are getting very little in return from anybody due to Sanctions they can’t suddenly stop exporting as they need to protect Russian jobs. Need to protect demand within the Russian economy.
My guess is after this is over we will see a shift in Russian thinking and they will move to a more balanced economy. Become less reliant on exports.
Because if they pivot eastwards and away from Europe. Apart from China there is very little they can receive from their exports that will improve their standard of living.
Here’s 3 minutes of the absolute horror that those men you see being kidnapped from the streets in Ukraine go through once they reach the front.
Russia’s most elite drone units don’t even give them time to breathe as they’re constantly on the hunt, day and night.
Zelensky might be able to fool his audience about the situation on the battlefield and the casualties, but we all see the huge difference between Ukraine’s losses and Russia’s every time they exchange the remains of fallen soldiers, and it’s not looking good for Ukraine.
https://x.com/GabeZZOZZ/status/2079081181031563480
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2026 10:00 utc | 94
@frithguild | Jul 19 2026 16:16 utc | 18
And after eliminating government you believe the oligarchy vanishes?
Posted by: petergrfstrm | Jul 20 2026 10:04 utc | 95
Posted by: Andrew | Jul 20 2026 10:00 utc | 93
The entire economic world is moving toward hard assets and commodities, over FIAT money which is backed by government and real estate debt which are in a massive bubble.
The one thing to indeed understand about money is that money is debt. If the debt goes unpaid, money starts being cancelled out. As the bank has also invested their customer’s deposits in debt based instruments with a large leverage, up to 10-30x of deposit amounts. If the debt goes bust, deposits go bust, etc. And the debt is the western economy, society, which is collapsing.
Hence the shift to hard assets, with no counterparty risk. What will be the new measure of trust in a new economic system before the next 5 years have ended?
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2026 10:05 utc | 96
Posted by: Clown Shoes | Jul 19 2026 20:28 utc | 51
Why was an export led growth policy a good idea decades ago ?
If the central bank wanted to issue more currency then it had to get more gold to back it. That became the role of trade. Gold was considered to be the principle method of making international payments. Accordingly, as imbalances in trade (imports and exports) arose this necessitated that gold be transferred between nations (in boats) to fund these imbalances. Trade deficit countries had to ship gold to trade surplus countries.
For the trade surplus nations, the inflow of gold would allow their central banks to expand their money supplies (issue more notes) because they had more gold to back the currency. The rising money supply would push against the inflation barrier (given no increase in the real capacity of the economy) which would ultimately render exports less attractive to foreigners and the the surplus would decline.
For the trade deficit nations, the loss of gold reserves to the surplus nations forced their governments to withdraw paper currency which was deflationary and had the consequence of increasing unemployment, and driving down output growth and the general level of prices. The latter improved the competitiveness of their economy which also helped resolve the trade imbalance. But it remains that the the deficit nations were forced to bear rising unemployment and vice versa as the trade imbalances resolved. Austerity was enforced on the trade deficit nations.
Notice how the exact same language , propaganda and framing is used today when the mainstream media talks about trade. It’s a copy and paste job that no longer applies. 99.9% of economics taught today uses this con trick. Act as if we are still On the gold standard and use fixed exchange rates when nothing could be further from the truth.
It’s embedded in the EU treaties and the NATO charter to force countries to act this way. Because it’s a geopolitical move by the West to control other countries. Stop their own development that would threaten the West otherwise.
Monetary policy became captive to the amount of gold that a country possessed (principally derived from trade). Variations in the gold production levels also influenced the price levels of countries.
In practical terms, the adjustments to trade that were necessary to resolve imbalances were slow. In the meantime, trade deficit nations had to endure domestic recessions and entrenched unemployment. So a gold standard introduces a recessionary bias to economies with the burden always falling on countries with weaker currencies (typically as a consequence of trade deficits).
This inflexibility prevented governments from introducing policies that generated the best outcomes for their domestic economies (high employment).
Ultimately the monetary authorities were not able to resist the demands of the population for higher employment. They were voted out of office and the real reason why the gold standard failed. Will always fail.
The full history :
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=20754
The enemy attacked a civilian bus near Belgorod: 4 people were killed, including a child.
– A Ukrainian drone attacked a bus traveling the Belgorod-Shebekino route, according to local media.
– The drone was packed with a large number of explosive elements. Preliminary reports indicate that 4 people were killed, and 17 were injured. Among the dead were a woman and a child.
Posted by: fairleft | Jul 20 2026 10:35 utc | 98
Posted by: unimperator | Jul 20 2026 10:05 utc | 96
Pre 1971 hogwash I’m afraid.
Your description of debt is false. Somebody you listen to has filled your head with wasps when it comes to debt.
You would be absolutely correct and 100% spot on. If we were still on the gold standard and used fixed exchange rates.
That’s always the problem and the ignorance of not recognising the Massive difference between then and now.
As for the real estate bubble. Let’s call it what it really is assinflation.
That’s caused because of bank lending and being allowed to borrow money for speculation purposes. STOP that in its tracks and it stops.
Has absolutely nothing to do if it’s FIAT money or not.
Reign in bank lending by implementing a policy of what you can take out a bank loan for. You fix the problem.
STOP loans for speculation purposes and promote loans for development purposes.
Job done !
It’s also a story of supply and demand. Build more affordable housing and social housing.
Combine it all together and assinflation disappears..
“My guess is after this is over we will see a shift in Russian thinking and they will move to a more balanced economy. Become less reliant on exports.”
Posted by: Andrew | Jul 20 2026 10:00 utc | 93
Yes. In fact we’ve already seen that. The “Sanctions from Hell”, brutal and disruptive though they were at the start, performed long term the function of protective tariffs behind which hitherto weak sectors of Russian industry could thrive.
Thus allowing a more balanced economy to emerge. Were it not for the appalling number of proxy deaths and the loss of many of their own, that SMO was far more gain than loss for the Russians.
No such remedy for England, regret to say. Were you to propound your doctrine to HM Treasury they’d burn you at the stake.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 20 2026 11:09 utc | 100