Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 9, 2026
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-146

News & views related to the war in Ukraine …

Comments

The question is…. Can AFU lose a million and hold? That’s 2026 ….

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 12 2026 4:49 utc | 201

Ahead of us lies the largest agglomeration where the enemy is stubbornly resisting: Slavyansko-Kramatorsk, consisting of three cities and adjacent settlements – Druzhkovka, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. The enemy has been preparing a defense there for nearly 12 years, creating a chain of strongpoints, defensive nodes, underground communications, minefields, and obstacles. Serious combat work lies ahead. They’ve zeroed in on large swathes of terrain, they know how to operate in certain conditions, and they’re prepared to defend themselves in urban areas. Therefore, we face difficult, painstaking combat work. There’s no other way. We’ll have to liberate this part of Donbas—Russian Donbas—step by step, gradually, at a slow pace. Nothing new.”
 
Follow MAXvoenkorKotenok

Sounds like Russian forces won’t be clearing the Donbas anytime soon. It sounds like 1.5 to 2 more years fighting to me.

Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 12 2026 6:32 utc | 202

Quite funny to see how MOA has been wrong about literally everything about this war. I remember when they predicted a swift victory with little Ukrainian resistance. That was over 4 years ago. 
Yet here we are and Ukraine still stands. 
 

Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 7:38 utc | 203

I really don’t understand how anyone still takes Mercouris  seriously. Like MOA, all his predictions have failed. 

Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 7:40 utc | 204

Lindsey Graham dead after returning from Ukraine. 
What a shame.

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 12 2026 8:17 utc | 205

Putin’s favorability is down 
 Posted by: frithguild | Jul 11 2026 22:13 utc | 201
 
Officially he’s doing so well he could easily win next elections at 72.3% trust and 66% approval – tass.com/society/2158573
Before the smo it looked like Shoigu was being prepared for next presidency. Now it looks like Putin or Medvedev will remain and it can explain why Medevedev wants to appear as a great warrior but only on twitter and is a big Trump bootlicker to be accepted by US, like Kiril. Actually Kirill can be president too:  he’s an Ukrainian exchange student educated in the best schools in US. What more can you want?

Posted by: rk | Jul 12 2026 8:19 utc | 206

A fanatic hater less. A piece of shit flushed down the sewers. 
If there were any hell, may Lindsey Graham burn in.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 12 2026 8:38 utc | 207

Lindsey Graham reportedly died of heart attack. Wonder if the same pathogen as in the AFD leadership was involved.

Posted by: ArmChairGeneral | Jul 12 2026 8:43 utc | 208

Appears to be stopped because they need to move a wreck and possibly fix a lock.
Posted by: ed4 | Jul 11 2026 22:34 utc | 204

Appears to be a lie as ships entered the canal from Taganrog last night. One empty tanker was slightly damaged by a drone but could resume travel.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 12 2026 8:59 utc | 209

82 ships hit by Ukraine. Tell me again how Russia is winning. 
 

Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 9:07 utc | 210

Lyndsey Graham is deceased by a heart attack after visiting z apparently news headlines say.

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 9:15 utc | 211

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 9:15 utc | 216
man lands on moon

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jul 12 2026 9:17 utc | 212

Oh wow aquadraht mm
Coward…what an attitude to me when for years been faithfully researching and providing reports and info, and recent months posts are removed and others post the same stuff  and get through. But still I attempt to post. b did not even have the courtesy to reply to an email from me attempting to discern why. Considering that posts remain up a lot of time that distract from the subject, personal insults  and arguments and nuke Russia etc etc.
Russia truth is on substack as I have previously posted. It seems to provide good analysis and reports up to date. It seems to be as relevant as the sources that most people use. Not difficult to find , It’s the content that is important ,not the nit picking focus by people who like to do that, appreciate the discussion that is why we are here

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 9:35 utc | 213

I remember when they predicted a swift victory with little Ukrainian resistance.
 
Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 7:38 utc | 208

Gotta link for that? What I remember is people expected a slow, grinding and Russia would eventually come out on top … which is exactly what happened. Can’t remember anyone predicted a swift victory so show evidence or get trashed as a troll.

Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 9:55 utc | 214

 
Posted by: frithguild | Jul 11 2026 22:13 utc |
 
Thanks for your reply.  I think you’ve gone into this conflict a lot deeper than the superficial  Holiday  Inn level.
 
I found the Melnichenko essay repellent.  “I hope that in time we will correct all the internal imbalances for which we too bear responsibility—through the fact that we were once glad to absent ourselves.”
 
Is that a mea culpa?  Doesn’t look like it to me.  More a clever man seeking to accommodate to the different power balance he senses emerging.   A fair weather friend, adjusting to the fact that Russia’s won this round but as far as I can see, having done nothing whatsoever to put his shoulder to the wheel when it mattered.
 
Were I one of the Russian soldiers risking life and limb in the Donbass, I’d not be that pleased if the end of it all was just that Melnichenko got to keep his yacht.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 12 2026 10:11 utc | 215

Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 9:55 utc | 220    
.
It was all about a swift victory with little Ukrainian resistance.  
https://twitter.com/i/status/1697553040071430306
.
Some of these people are still around on Russian TV.

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 10:18 utc | 216

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 9:35 utc | 218
Ok, maybe I misassessed you, in which case I apologize. Yet it is hard to distinguish amid the flood of trolling and derailing. 
 
But you should also reflect what you might have contributed both to negative assessments, and postings being removed by the administrator. 
 
For example: I do not know a substack Russia Truth, maybe I just missed, but given the number of sources I follow, it is strange, and at least a link would be helpful. Granted I follow mostly Russian and to some extent Ukrainian language accounts beside the more widely known English language ones and some in other tongues, German for example, I wonder that I did not stumble over it. 
 
Ok I do not or very rarely look into anything on Youtube and other mafia resources. A reason why you suffered removals may be your verbatim reposting e.g. from a channel “@ukr_leaks_eng” without any own contribution.
 
While I know and value Vassily Prokhorov and follow his telegram channel every day, I would not just try to feed it into b’s blog. That is considered impolite to both sides, and may even trigger auto moderation.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 12 2026 10:19 utc | 217

Some of these people are still around on Russian TV.
Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 10:18 utc | 224

I doubt you ever watched Russian TV.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 12 2026 10:20 utc | 218

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 10:18 utc | 224

 
The claim was that this came from MoU so don’t change the story. I don’t follow links to Twitter because they usually fail. Show a relevant link or didn’t happen.

Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 11:14 utc | 219

Also, a reminder how MOA parroted the RUssian narrative that the warnings about a Russian invasion was Western propaganda up until the invasion actually happened. “The alleged invasion is again a claim without any evidence. It is part of the information war the U.S. is waging against Russia. All the anonymous intelligence-lacking officials who make such claims are simply lying. They have no sources or evidence to support such claims.”MOA, February 23, 2022. 

Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 11:21 utc | 220

Is Russia Actually Losing?
https://youtu.be/cRiOkQ1ngAM?si=ZEcgSfKUpjTva9c0
 
“Russia’s war economy is running out of road. Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out roughly a third of Russia’s oil refining capacity, forcing an energy superpower to ration petrol at home and import gasoline from India — while Crimea sits under a state of emergency with the air-raid sirens switched off so the tourists aren’t disturbed. In this video we look at what the numbers actually say: a contracting economy despite record military spending, a National Wealth Fund down from 6.5% of GDP to 1.8%, a first-quarter budget deficit that blew through the entire year’s target in ninety days, and a banking system quietly commandeered to keep the tank factories running. We look at how China has turned the ‘no limits’ partnership into a very one-sided arrangement, why Europe’s largest rearmament since the Cold War sent defence stocks down, whether Europe actually needs expensive American fighter jets or is simply paying tribute to Washington — and what the Russian endgame realistically looks like, according to a Russian billionaire who is not a dissident. Featuring the Kiel Institute’s “Endgame” report, Tucker Carlson’s demon, and the parade Vladimir Putin had to get Zelensky’s permission to hold.”

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jul 12 2026 11:24 utc | 221

Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 9:55 utc | 220
you moron , it started as SMO so what you lowbrainer think is a  SMO supposed to be  ? you use your brain before commenting ?wtf
MoA was always fun to read , started as good message board but now the downfall to pure circle jerking propaganda troll board.
newbie et al nothing but RU MoD information forwarder
Even the fact that you trolls no longer discussing about success stories from the frontlines because there a none.
 
 

Posted by: useyourbraintel | Jul 12 2026 11:46 utc | 222

Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 11:14 utc | 227   
This post did not say anything about limiting to MOA:  Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 9:55 utc | 220
but I do now see that earlier comment: Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 7:38 utc | 208
In addition MOA’s stance that the invasion would never take place, any commenter who pushed what Scott Ritter was saying back in late February / March 2022 would fall under that.

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 11:47 utc | 223

Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 11:21 utc | 228

 
I searched that and the link is here.
 
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/02/there-is-still-no-russian-invasion-but-sanctions-proceeded-anyway.html
 
First thing to mention, you are twisty and change your story … your claim was, and I quote, “I remember when they predicted a swift victory with little Ukrainian resistance.”
 
The article you cite has no such prediction … and I’m sure you know that therefore you are a bullshitter.
 
Now as to your completely different claim that the article on February 23 2022 should have exactly predicted the Russian troops entering Ukraine a day later on February 24 2022 … well if you had read the article you would know that it was about a NYT article and as it turns out it was perfectly accurate that there was no Russian invasion on the 23rd. So that’s more of your bullshit.
 
You know what you are up to.

Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 11:49 utc | 224

Posted by: useyourbraintel | Jul 12 2026 11:46 utc | 231

 
I must have burned you bad huh? We have three nicks including one completely unknown nick you just happened to join today but let me guess has no connection to the other two guys. Uh huh … sure thing 
 
And the troll bitch hard when they get caught tolling.
 
Guess my work here is done … so long suckers!

Posted by: Tel | Jul 12 2026 11:53 utc | 225

Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 7:38 utc | 208
——————
The prediction was accurate. Ukraine was ready for a capitulation end of March, until the whole west started to feed it with weapons, ISR and western support personnel.
So fuck off.

Posted by: scc | Jul 12 2026 12:30 utc | 226

lol
 
Remember August 2022 when MOA claimed that there was no way that Ukraine would even attempt to take back Kherson?

Posted by: angelocrator | Jul 12 2026 12:35 utc | 227

Posted by: scc | Jul 12 2026 12:30 utc | 235
The West started feeding Ukraine with weapons before February 22, 2022.  Not including minor supplies before 2022, there were major airlifts of weapons in January 2022.

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 12:51 utc | 228

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 12:51 utc | 237
—————-
And still Ukraine was ready for a ceasefire and a settlement to Russia conditions in March.

Posted by: scc | Jul 12 2026 13:16 utc | 229

“Lindsey Graham and the Ghost of John McCain Speak to Ukrainian Troops
 
The Senator and the Phantasm travel back in time to four years before the War of Choice to begin preparing the Ukrainians — and the world — for Russia’s Invasion.”
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMMvSiVkjfg   (~4min vid)
 
 
LG to Ukrainians (at ~1:20):  “Your fight is our fight.”

Posted by: GreatLakesObserver | Jul 12 2026 13:39 utc | 230

Good riddance M. Lindsay. May the hell welcome you.

Posted by: scc | Jul 12 2026 13:50 utc | 231

@235, 237
 
The west supplied guerilla arms to west Ukraine in late 1940’s.
 
The west was arming Ukraine from 2014, most of it unreported!  CIA and DoD “black budgets”.
 
What do you think Vidman was complaining about $1b?  It was a tiny part of that years’ US contribution to proxy on Russia.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 12 2026 13:55 utc | 232

Poo-tin reportedly blew up Lindsey Graham along with a Ukrainian drone factory.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 12 2026 14:09 utc | 233

Ta Asian for your post.Appreciated. Seems sometimes here so little real information and tooooo much attitude.

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 14:18 utc | 234

NATO’s Plan BACKFIRES – Russia Ramps Up Ukraine OFFENSIVE | Vladimir Brovkin

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFXzGPACHFM

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 12 2026 14:27 utc | 235

MoD numbers for AFU casualties almost at 1.500
 
https://tass.com/defense/2159151
 
 

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 12 2026 15:07 utc | 236

Posted by: scc | Jul 12 2026 13:16 utc | 238 “And still Ukraine was ready for a ceasefire and a settlement to Russia conditions in March.”
.
What was the proposal that had been submitted to the Ukrainian parliament?  
 

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 20:16 utc | 237

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 12 2026 15:07 utc | 245  “MoD numbers for AFU casualties almost at 1.500”
.
MoD numbers for Russian casualties 1,320.  Russians winning again!  But Ukraine appears to have gotten more Russian ships.  And refineries.  
https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-july-12-2026
 

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 20:21 utc | 238

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 12 2026 20:21 utc | 247

Don’t you feel shame for your stupid trolling? 
 
Russian losses according to Mediazona:
https://ibb.co/FLXZQDYF

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 12 2026 21:13 utc | 239

🇩🇪🇺🇦 Germany will pay for the delivery of 50,000 attack drones to Ukraine, according to Reuters.These are Shrike drones manufactured by the Ukrainian company SkyFall. They are equipped with software from the American company Auterion. The contract amount is approximately €90 million.

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 22:02 utc | 240

🇩🇪🇺🇦 Germany will pay for the delivery of 50,000 attack drones to Ukraine, according to Reuters.These are Shrike drones manufactured by the Ukrainian company SkyFall. They are equipped with software from the American company Auterion. The contract amount is approximately €90 million.
Got too overexcited after a long trip meeting the height of his ambitions- the possibility of destroying Russia consumed him …plus others. Z the parasite kills his hosts, especially US and EU economies plus UK.

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 22:05 utc | 241

Apologies I meant to post this with last comment last paragraph
 
‼️🇺🇸🇷🇺“I can’t die now. I still need to impose sanctions on Russia” Axios on the final hours of Russophobic Senator Graham➖On Saturday evening, Lindsey Graham spoke with Trump, discussing his trip to Ukraine and the bill on new sanctions against Russia that he wanted to pass through the Senate.▪️Later, the senator complained of feeling unwell, but decided to seek help only that morning—after a scheduled broadcast on NBC.▪️Then he joked that he couldn’t die until he imposed sanctions on Russia, dealt with Iran, and achieved normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.▪️A few hours later, Graham died.*Added to the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation.⚠️. RV:  |

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 22:07 utc | 242

The total travel time for Graham from Kiev to his home in Washington DC including the 6-9 hour train or motorcade trip to the Polish border, followed by the 9-10 hour direct flight would have taken 15-20 hours. Graham’s activities in Kiev concluded on Friday, 10 July. That included meeting Zelensky, visiting the Skyfall drone production facility, and conducting his final meeting with the press (pictured) during which he announced new sanctions.
He could very well have departed Kiev on Friday evening or during the night, and with the 7 hour time zone difference, very easily have arrived in Washington by mid-afternoon on Saturday, on time to meet his maker at the reported location and hour. Slavyangrad

Posted by: Jo | Jul 12 2026 22:28 utc | 243

All I see is how great Ukraine is. No one mentions that 4 million Ukrainians have bailed. 1.1 of them are military age males. The EU does not want to give temporary status to the Ukrainians but they don’t have any problems with the Syrians or the Afhaganis.

Posted by: Bukshot | Jul 13 2026 16:23 utc | 244