@Lesjeuxsontfaits
“The Russians attack in Winter. Father Frost or Ded Moros was on their side when Napoleon‘s Grande Armee drowned in the Beresina and when Hitler‘s 6th Army froze to death in Stalingrad. ”
 
Both of the examples above were of a foreign invader who had gone incredibly deep into the Russian Heartland and were unprepared and far away from their logistical base- same does not even remotely apply here. Semantics aside around “is this part of the map Ukraine or Russia” the people fighting over it on both sides are acclimatized to the weather as both consider this their home turf.
 
“General winter” does not really provide a significant advantage to one party over the other in this conflict though it is certainly a factor that affects both. 
 
Winters aren’t nearly as cold and bitter as they used to be, rendering a lot possibilities for novel maneuver obsolete. Rivers and lakes don’t freeze nearly thick enough or long enough for vehicle traffic and even foot traffic is dodgy, etc.  Yes the ground hardens opening up some additional options but then you’re still talking about moving across open areas subject to instant drone and ISR attack and large mechanized pushes are a thing of the past because of this.
 
There is merit though to the overall impact on the societies ability to function with strikes on critical energy and heating infrastructure, never mind the precarious global situation with oil inventories at a record low (that nobody likes to openly talk about)

Posted by: Clown Shoes | Jul 10 2026 16:35 utc | 104

“RF has shown it will wait out NATO, if they decide to go to war it’s on them, but RF will not throw the first punch.”
 
Posted by: Newbie | Jul 10 2026 12:14 utc | 90
 
Yes.  The Russians do have the luxury of having several options to choose from.  We lost any range of options in February 2022.  In spite of an inordinate amount of flailing around on the part of Trump and the Europeans we’ve never regained the initiative.  The blogger “Simplicius” holds to your view I think:-
 
“Why doesn’t Russia “attack Europe” in response? There are many possible reasons, but one of the more likely ones is that Russia is confident of its ability to finish off Ukraine without needing to escalate toward WWIII. The Russian MOD’s internal figures presumably see Ukraine collapsing long before Russia is immiserated to the point of needing some “desperate” nuclear strike or attack against NATO.”
 
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/trump-and-rubio-hopeful-ukrainian
 
 
The same blogger also quotes extensively from the an old NYT piece.  Sleboda was of course right.  For all the Trumpian antics, the Americans are in as deep as they’ve ever been.  The CIA was continuing to plan attacks on Russia even as both the Russians and Trump were pretending that there was some “Spirit of Alaska” floating around.
 
(Simplicius, summarising the NYT article) … ” they admit that the CIA was essentially responsible for entirely crafting the new strategy, and with Trump’s permission to boot, owing to Trump’s reported exasperation with Putin who he believed was leading him on …”
 
There then follow extensive quotes from the old NYT article which put the question past doubt.  Trump is Biden redivivus but without Biden’s, er, suave elegance and strategic grasp.  Simplicius – “We can deduce that Trump wants to operate under maximal plausible deniability in order to bring leverage onto Putin and Russia while still being able to play coy and pretend the US is not fully involved.”
 
As if that ever fooled the Russians.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 10 2026 17:01 utc | 106

acementhead…remember the “polonium”  affair was absolutely promoted  for russophobic purposes. Then of course UK gob heavily involved with Bill Browder who appeared several times at Parliamentary Committees to advise give input etc on defence and terrorist concerns ,NATO policy and Russian policies. I remember watching the gullibility  of the members, just like UK politics been so willingly and easily suckered and  hoodwinked by z for money and military support pretending to defend western democracy etc 

Posted by: Jo | Jul 10 2026 17:12 utc | 108

Peskov has gone back to begging to trump again.
The nazi banderite drone bombings will continue.
30+ tankers hit in sea of AZOV.

Posted by: Decrepit Old Man | Jul 10 2026 18:40 utc | 110

An unpopular question that doesn’t seem to get asked very much, amid all the braying about Patriot production: what on earth is the point of committing all those production resources to something that doesn’t work very well in the first place?
 
Like the F-35, if Patriot is the best the West can do, then it has already lost.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 10 2026 18:55 utc | 112

Probably could expand the question further, among all the talk of European remilitarisation the question is: what with?
 
Where are the new designs, the prototypes?
 
Continuing to chug out all the existing stuff, that has been found out to be seriously wanting in the “game-changer” stakes isn’t real remilitarisation, just a contractor enrichment project (which may be the whole point) but enriching contractors doesn’t do much to improve defensive postures or offensive capabilities.
 
For as long as remilitarisation remains subordinate to the culture of the quarterly bonus, there is no real threat to Russia.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 10 2026 19:05 utc | 114

It is funny, what the demented old man is vomiting of Uke propaganda. Always following the Goebbels rule: Inflate by at least one order of magnitude.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 10 2026 19:12 utc | 116

Thanks to
 
@ too scents | Jul 10 2026 18:57 utc | 118
@ paddy | Jul 10 2026 19:09 utc | 120
@ paddy | Jul 10 2026 19:16 utc | 122
 
for responding to my idle musings, I was just typing out loud as thoughts came to me.

I was a U.S. civilian employee in the MIC from 1985. Before that I did honest work trying to keep MIC weapons ready to do the job.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 10 2026 19:09 utc | 120
 
Have you thought about publishing a book of your experiences? Or would you get into too much trouble???

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 10 2026 19:23 utc | 118

I have been following this conflict probably to closely for 4 years. Ukraine has never hit Russia has hard and as often as it does now.
Ukraine is never so close to total collapse as it is now. Is Putin that clever?

Posted by: steve | Jul 10 2026 19:34 utc | 120

The Patriot PAC 3 license to manufacture is just more cover for DJT so he can appease the neo cons in Cabinet asking and demand more war on Russia.
 
The Ukronazis have no clue as to how to manufacture anything larger than balsa wood drones.
 
Just more political eye wash in DC.  It means less than nothing.  On to Odessa!

Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 10 2026 19:35 utc | 122

@125
 
Putin is (so far) smart enough to stick to the knitting.
 
The damage done by U.S. guided drones is far less than propaganda claims, repair quickly.
 
Trump may have been told “ if Hitler had our media the V-1 would have won WW II”

Posted by: paddy | Jul 10 2026 19:39 utc | 124

Kiev planned to blame Russia for a plot to assassinate a Ukrainian businessman

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 10 2026 19:59 utc | 130
 
Interesting to me that the Western MSM hasn’t gone with the “blame Russia” angle over the Monaco bombing, especially when compared with the full-on media effort to blame Russia for smearing superglue on every door-handle in Salisbury.
 
Russian agents are (so far) also conspicuously absent from the media coverage of the anti-TCC unrest in Lvov.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 10 2026 20:12 utc | 126

I have sunk into quiet ignominy. No book.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 10 2026 19:35 utc | 126
 
Thank you for your contributions here nonetheless.
 
While not directly military myself, I’ve experienced more than enough project creep, project bloat, project realignment and budgetary disputes caused by multi-factional bureaucratic infighting, that I actually printed the following out and stuck it on the wall of one of the offices:

The number of successful projects is inversely proportional to the number of senior project management changes

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 10 2026 20:25 utc | 128

The Patriots…. can’t help but think of Trumps super duper weapons and his super duper military budget to purchase them.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 10 2026 20:36 utc | 130

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang@131:
 
I think the western propaganda machine is beginning to run out of gas on the Russophrenia front. Perhaps it’s just me  here in the middle of a TO summer, or more focus on Iran, but other than the odd talking head or Mark Carney’s periodic announcements on CBC, I am noticing less coverage in general of Russia-Ukraine.
 
By contrast more Canadians are beginning to grumble about how expensive things have become and why is so much being spent on militarization and Ukraine. Here’s one Canadian podcaster’s take on Carney’s $100 b submarine deal:
 
But At Least We’ll Have Submarines…
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0vgMCUsfC4
 
“Tap the maple – special rant.”
 
Speaking of msm ‘coverage’ will post this latest I noticed on AJ:
 
Ukraine Chokes Fuel To Crimea, Russian Consumers, Targeting Military Supply
 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/10/ukraine-chokes-fuel-to-crimea-russian-consumers-targeting-military-supply
 
“Ukraine’s unmanned systems have cut overland routes and begun to target Russian shadow tankers…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 10 2026 20:55 utc | 132

*** other than the odd talking head or Mark Carney’s periodic announcements on CBC, I am noticing less coverage in general of Russia-Ukraine. ***
Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 10 2026 20:55 utc | 137
 
With the “super duper bombs and missiles will bring Iran to its knees” the narrative options narrowed to “Ukraine is winning.” Now with “worship yhe bones of  Nazi” and “Girl with the Snake Tatoo assassinated by Elensky” peeking through the veil and “Riots in Liviv because of conscription (Vietnam protests were a defining moment for boomers)” lurking beneath the surface, there is nowhere to go. I look at ISW as a window into the current narrative creation and right now its a confused mess. As a news editor, the only choice you have is to retreat into your turtle shell. 

Posted by: frithguild | Jul 10 2026 21:18 utc | 134

PAC 3 missile is one link of Patriot. I have no idea why anyone wants to quadruple its production delivery.  
 
Posted by: paddy | Jul 10 2026 19:16 utc | 122
 
If Patrio is a money pump, try running it at four times the speed.
 
 

Posted by: The Far Side | Jul 10 2026 21:41 utc | 136

As Ukraine was responsible for the blitzkrieg of Al Nusra near Aleppo and march on Damascus … the terror state is active in Mali with support of French foreign legion … hell and fire 🔥
 
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/07/10/771986/Malian-authorities-accuse-Ukraine-of-training-and-arming-Al-Qaeda-linked-militants-in-the-Sahel

Posted by: Oui | Jul 10 2026 21:46 utc | 138

If only they’d stay there.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 10 2026 21:25 utc | 140
 
The stenographer has to release the transcript at some point. 
 
I can also add this in to the reasons for the press being a little sleepy – the NATO summit was one clown car after another. They are struggling with ccoordinated packaging. 

Posted by: frithguild | Jul 10 2026 22:43 utc | 140

Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 10 2026 22:44 utc | 146
 
Russia is taking a good sized allocation oF EN-590 from India, which has been refining Russian crude. So there will be shortages for western Europe. Hey Ursula, see how it works?

Posted by: frithguild | Jul 10 2026 22:50 utc | 142

Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 10 2026 22:44 utc | 146 “oil refineries are partially shutting down for repairs due to ‘attacks’,”
.
Somewhere between 20% and 40% of production according to people who track it.  

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 10 2026 23:45 utc | 144

“oil refineries are partially shutting down for repairs due to ‘attacks’,”.Somewhere between 20% and 40% of production according to people who track it.  
Posted by: ed4 | Jul 10 2026 23:45 utc | 149
 
yet somehow, Russian oil exports are up 3% over before the war started.
 
Note  EXPORTS.
 
Also, “according to people who track it” means NAFO propagandists who just sling around numbers to make it sound like Ukraine is winning.

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 11 2026 0:05 utc | 146

The number of foreigners killed recently in the Kupyansk region is staggering.
This is why the arithmeticians who like to tell us that Ukraine/handlers are running out of whatever, people, drones, missiles, are typically wrong (albeit in a Procrustean way), as always more can scrapped together to ply at Russia from wherever it’s needed.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Jul 11 2026 0:09 utc | 148

@ English Outsider | Jul 10 2026 11:06 utc | 88 
 
the coming Cold War II?  At the latest, a new Cold War had restarted in the early days of Obama’s 2nd term – Maidan, Minsk, Syria, Snowden, missile defense. The risk today is WW3 or a global economic depression on top of extreme ongoing climate impacts and crop failures.
 
an enemy to be hated, the Russians fit the bill for most of us?
Not me. Not “us”. 
 
the pinprick attacks we’re mounting into Russia?
No one here nor I are mounting attacks into Russia. 
 
We are not Europe, not Nato, not the US. We are not BRICS, not Russia, not Israel, not Iran. Thanks. I am me. 

Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 11 2026 0:53 utc | 150

NATO empire equally does not need any pretext to attack, destroy, murder, annihilate, holocaust anything that they deem resistant.
 
They never needed it for any of their wars. Nobody has ever attacked them.
 
…. The attacks will not stop, they will increase in severity….. The weaker it becomes, the more it invites aggression.
Posted by: Hamburger | Jul 10 2026 13:35 utc | 97
 

A good comment with realism and historical clarity. Neither side can win the current conflict imo. One side takes a step back (unlikely) or it escalates. Nothing is resolved if/when Russia takes the last annexed oblast’s border with rump-Ukraine. When is unlikely to happen this year or the next. And now there’s talk of taking Odessa and Sumy as well. Chances are, that’s not going to happen in another 4 years. 
 
Of course anything might happen. We can’t predict the future. 

Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 11 2026 1:11 utc | 152

Neither side can win the current conflict imo. 
Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 11 2026 1:11 utc | 157
 
Russia will win.  And when Russia does, NATO might try to directly intervene.
 
Then Russia will really win.  Because Russia wants to conquer Ukraine, but Russia wants to destroy NATO.  Which would not be too difficult, as the alliance is all talk anyway, and would fall apart upon first strikes.
 
Europe is so fucked.
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 11 2026 1:22 utc | 154

Yarlis Morales (from Buenavista, Córdoba, Colombia): he appeared in a recruitment video for the 23rd RUG Regiment of the “Khartia” Brigade as recently as June 19th. Naturally, he underwent no training; he was unceremoniously kicked straight into a “mission” (read: a suicide run). As soon as he lost contact, his brother was informed that he had been killed—back on July 3rd. 

2 weeks after making the ad to promote Colombians to join the war he was killed. Perhaps if more Colombians were “treated” to the “after” videos of their men being killed by the drones they wouldn’t be so enthusiastic to join the war. This guy looks like he had his entire right arm and shoulder blown off. And who pays for the repatriation of their bodies?

Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 11 2026 2:09 utc | 156

The core tactic remains the same where a superpower supports a local ally (Assad in Syria) with arms, intelligence, and advisors to weaken a rival without fighting a direct war and risking a catastrophic escalation. Just as the USSR armed North Vietnam and the U.S. supplied the Mujahideen, NATO is now doing the same in Ukraine. This is the proxy playbook in action.

But it has always been the US aggressing and USSR/Russia reaction. It was US that started the Vietnam war, going in after the French lost control; it was the US with Turkey and Qatar and Saudi funding which started the uprising and war in Syria as Syria was living peacefully for decades under Assad; it was US which baited the Soviets in Afghanistan to give them “their Vietnam” so admitted Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Adviser during the Carter Administration,  in 1998. US was supporting the terrorists BEFORE Russia went into Afghanistan.
It was US which backed the color revolution which overthrew Ukraine’s government and inserted a puppet to go after the Donbas people and the Ukrainians also burned scores of people alive in the government building in Odessa in May 2014. 
 

Posted by: MiniMO | Jul 11 2026 2:28 utc | 158

@ Konami | Jul 11 2026 3:18 utc | 164
 
it is poor propaganda either way…. maybe they have to change their name to asian mouse?? 

Posted by: james | Jul 11 2026 4:28 utc | 160

@ konami
 
that is good  thinking on your part.. thanks.. 

Posted by: james | Jul 11 2026 4:59 utc | 162

The fact that both sides are saying the same does NOT mean that they both right (or wrong). It depends on the circumstances which the only-by-the-words reasoning conveniently omits. The remainder of the troll’s “reasoning” is more false equivalence between USA and USSR, this time along history lines. It’s the typical position of someone forced to admit USA imperialism: “okay, but USSR / Russia too”.
Posted by: Konami | Jul 11 2026 3:18 utc | 164

 
Indeed.
 
In popular “debate shows” on TV in most western countries nowadays there is always an equal number from “each side” with the sole purpose to increase the temperature of the debate. When people are used to this they will tend to think of any conflict as some  “both parts equally guilty” nonsense. Which eventually gets us into a very slippery slope.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jul 11 2026 8:15 utc | 164

Posted by: james | Jul 11 2026 4:28 utc | 165
it is poor propaganda either way…. maybe they have to change their name to asian mouse?? 
There will be a new name soon, I’m sure. I don’t reply to trolls which is why I didn’t copy the poster’s name as I do otherwise. I think it’s worth discussing and debunking the false equivalence regularly. It’s a common trope, also in real life. Sadly, even poor propaganda works.
Posted by: Konami | Jul 11 2026 4:53 utc | 166

 
Say what you want, your comments fail historically factually false equivalence wise and as flawed judgments all round. 
 

Warning! This kind of false equivalence is a popular propaganda tool. If you accept this logic, you also have to accept that Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia are “equally guilty”. Don’t do that! 

 
Yeah, don’t do that. My comment related to a the Cold War period from 1945 thru 1991. Between the US/West and the USSR. and I gave a few specific examples. There is no equivalence (seeing you like that term) between my comparative observation and comments with the USSR vs Nazi Germany of WW2. That is a major fail of logic, basic reading and thinking. 
 
That might have sounded really astute and clever to you but it wasn’t. I’m not doing revisionism. I don’t do propaganda. I’m not the German mainstream media nor their politicians. You’re in deep cognitive difficulty when you cannot tell the difference. Then assume A must = B. The explanations do not add up logically. They are not equivalent. My comment was rational, thoughtful and historically correct. I’ll ignore the ad hominem trolling. 
 
 

Posted by: Asian Tiger | Jul 11 2026 8:30 utc | 166

This belongs on every topic! 
 

Alon Mizrahi

 
 

@alon_mizrahi
13h

Ukraine, Pahlavis, Arab Zionists, pro-US, Anti-Scheinbaum Mexicans, fascist evangelical Argentinians and Brazilians, Falun Gong Chinese, Free Tibet – the list goes on and on. None of those is an actual authentic native political movement: all are 100% fake, imperial, CIA and Mossad operations

Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺

 
 

16h
🇺🇦 “Ukraine is the chosen people of God, and among the Slavs it is definitely God’s chosen people. That’s why we are standing and will continue to stand. Everything started here.” – Head of Zelensky’s office, Budanov The delusion is becoming worse.

 

Jul 10, 2026 · 6:20 PM UTC

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jul 11 2026 9:08 utc | 168

Posted by: General Factotum | Jul 11 2026 8:01 utc | 168
 
General Factotum – rings a bell.  I knew an engineer who worked in the defence industry. 
 
He was retired  when I knew him.  Had started his career decades ago.  Always worked for the big defence contractors.  Said that at the very start of his career there were two layers of management between him and the top.  As he became more senior and was running projects, there were eleven.
 
Also said that none of the projects he’d worked on or later ran had been taken through to completion.  None, though some of them were projects that even today would be regarded as advanced.  Just when it was starting to get interesting and it looked as if there ware some useful results in sight, budgetary constraints or policy changes led to the project being gutted. 
 
This would have been the period when it became apparent anyway that a small country couldn’t expect to keep up with the big players.  And defence procurement’s always tricky because it’s aiming at a moving target.  But even allowing for those factors, the current state of UK defence that Ian Proud wrote about recently must be in part down to the impediment you write about.  More time spent supervising or reporting on the work than doing it. 
 
On a larger scale it’ll be much the same in the States, no doubt, though there the pork barrel, not to mention the donor problem Macgregor’s so concerned about, must be the chief impediment when it comes to defence procurement. 

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 11 2026 11:32 utc | 170

Posted by: UWDude | Jul 11 2026 0:09 utc | 154  “Like mediazona who stopped tracking once the casualties “
.
Mediazona still tracks it.  Last update was July 2nd.  So not sure what you are talking about.
.
What is your estimate?

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 11 2026 12:33 utc | 172

Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 10 2026 19:35 utc | 127 “Just more political eye wash in DC.  It means less than nothing.  On to Odessa!”
.
When do you think they will get there?
 

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 11 2026 12:48 utc | 174

Don-Azov Canal -> how important is it?  It seems Ukrainian strikes have closed the canal.   Another report from Russia says traffic in the Kerch Strait is also shut down.

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 11 2026 12:53 utc | 176

Posted by: ed4 | Jul 11 2026 12:53 utc | 181
Not as important as you and your fellow Nazis dream.
Good appraisals of the overall situation in three interviews of Kyrill Kurbatov from Vatfor
https://ukraina.ru/20260708/1081164376.html
https://ukraina.ru/20260707/1081119240.html
https://ukraina.ru/20260706/1081118689.html
Too long to post translations

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 11 2026 13:00 utc | 178

@184
Are we days or weeks from RF giving US the “Gaza agenda”?

Posted by: paddy | Jul 11 2026 14:35 utc | 180

@175
 
I was a technical manager, civil servant, employe in primes and a consultant in U.S. DOD acquisition programs over 1985 to 2019.
 
I saw a lot of what your friend saw.
 
Main difference I saw no project cancelled.  US rushes things to production and deployment because the big companies profit margins are better.
 
Also tests we could not afford or had no time were not allowed to slow rush to good profit 

Posted by: paddy | Jul 11 2026 14:43 utc | 182

“Hilarious and false, the Zionists have not been the ‘chosen people’”
 
Damn right they’re not, never were, no matter what a liar and fraud and xenophobic mass murderer told them.
 
“… since the resurrection……….they just have not received the message yet…….
Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 11 2026 12:53 utc | 180”
 
Oh for crying out loud. Pull your head out of one orifice just to shove it up another.

Posted by: Dalit | Jul 11 2026 16:05 utc | 184

This operational success highlights a deeper structural reality: Russian engineers have solved the problem of neutralizing low-flying drones and cruise missiles. Rather than bankrupting their inventory by firing million-dollar interceptors at hundred-dollar plastic targets, Moscow has deployed a highly specialized, ultra-inexpensive technical architecture: the Redut-UR close-in defense system. Developed by the Kalashnikov Concern, this platform introduces a doctrine of absolute economic asymmetry, fundamentally invalidating the Western strategy of saturation.
Russia truth

Posted by: Jo | Jul 11 2026 17:38 utc | 186

Posted by: Jo | Jul 11 2026 17:38 utc | 191

While I agree here, again, no reference, wtf is “Russia truth”? Certainly the Redut-UR is a capable system, see e.g. https://turdef.com/article/russia-develops-redut-ur-c-uas-system-emulating-tank-aps . It is far not the only one, there is also the Citadel 30mm autocannon ( https://tass.com/defense/2136151 ), and the already mentioned Rostec infantry ammonition.
 
Generally, the RF favors inexpensive but working solutions. In one of the interviews by Kyrill Kurbatov, the interviewee Vladimir Nosikov mentions: 

The cost of launching a single FirePoint drone is estimated to be around \$250,000 (including the drone itself, operator salary, and logistics). Can Ukraine afford to launch 300-400 drones per month, given that 95% of them are shot down or fail to reach their targets?

Firepoint FP2/FP5 (“Liuty”) are the long range drones of Ukrainian “deep strikes”. It is easy to calculate that 100 of them cost 25 millions. Whether the 1 to 3 of them reaching any valuable target indeed cause that damage is hard to figure. And the 6.7 billions gifted by EU will be gone soon that way, more exactly the fraction not percolating in UA (and EU) corruption swamp. 

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 11 2026 18:24 utc | 188

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 11 2026 14:43 utc | 186
 
Regarding Simplicius, some incomplete thoughts. First, a pull quote, where Melnichenko describes an alternative,  incomprehensible to the west, where Russia succedes:
 
A nation where oligarchs and big businesses are increasingly working for the benefit of the state and its people, rather than the crooked Western system which deceived and betrayed them.
 
My heuristic, which could be way off, is that Asia and the “west” engage in business in fundamentally different manners largely due to differing underlying family structures. Referring to Todd, Russia/Asia exemplifies the exogenous communitarian structure. Resultingly, the most frictionless capital formation occurs when capital incentives orient along the same verticals as policy. 
 
Authoritarian Nuclear and Egalitarian Nuclear structures in Western Europe and the US form capital with the least friction in business relationships exemplified as insular capital structures. If large or empnymous enough, these structures may align enough to influence policy in achieving their goals. Such influence incepts when thinking that was once peripheral becomes socially acceptable, for example through an Overton window pried open by some novel ingenuity. 
 
There is a dearth of conventions that gives understanding to either side why these differences in political alignment exist. So in the west, for example, a person or company that succedes doing business in the east is some sort of guru possessed of some secret gnosis. 
 
This dearth expresses itself in the extraordinary misjudgments exemplifying western policy toward doing business in the east. Western politicians, who by definition are not clever enough (Too stupid) to succede in business, expect eastern structures to respond in line with what intuitively brought them to power. Adjusting policy around the periphery may realign the incentive structure enough to reorient a policy goal that grants contributions and gains relections. The “Too Stupid” are mystified when this approach fails work with say Russia or China. The Too Stupid is thinking that not enough of the periphery has been influenced, so double down!
 
The eastern response to this Mongol like pressure is to close ranks and wait it out. This response is so counterintuitive to westerners they see it as a lack of development or sophistication. The Too Stupid response is fully justified, repeated and increasingly stupid double downs.
 
The only logical eastern perception, incomprehensible to the Too Stupid, is to recognize, consistently with the words of Melnichenko, “the crooked Western system which deceived and betrayed them.” See also e.g. The Outlaw Empire. So there is no sense in talking anything out with a squaling fishwife. 
 
It seems to me, probably too imperfectly to be sensible, that the kind of alignment that Melnichenko forsees as the fifth soultion is really not so strange at all. It is far more likely to occur than any of the nonsense four scenarios dreamed up for consumption as propaganda:

1. “A humiliated Russia lingering on the periphery of the West.”
2. Russia becomes a vassal of China, ending its relationship with the West.
3. Russia becomes fragmented and falls apart like the USSR.
4. Russia becomes a “fortress: closed, mobilized, in permanent siege”, and a state of “perpetual emergency.”

These four smack of the double down type of analysis made so easily by the Too Stupid.  After all, they are writing for the Ecomnomist or occupying chairs at Universities.  So it is pretty much guaranteed feminine publishing and academic hierarchies will enforce the “4 scenarios” as orthodoxy.
 
Melnichenko’s fifthe orientation, as the most frictionless capital formation orientation for policy and business in Russia, has happened before. Perhaps an informative model would be how the relationship between politcal power and the Boyars changed during the reign of Ivan the Feared. I say this with eyes open to the wholesale revisionism staked by English historiography on this topic. I have to admit here that desiring a world that could be as opposed to the world that actually exist is a character flaw of mine. 
 
Lastly, I chaff a bit at describing the Melnichenko types as “oligarchs”.  This term is too ideologically charged. Musk, Gates or Thiel are not dismissed so easily by tagging them with the “Oligarch” Marxist system of nomenclature. How Russia dealt with the Boyars historically would be far more informative than dismissing them at the outset with the fetid entrails of Marxist terminology – unless, of course, if you’re Too Stupid. 
 

Posted by: frithguild | Jul 11 2026 19:23 utc | 190

In May, the number of Ukrainian citizens with temporary protection status increased in 22 out of the 26 countries of the European Union, according to Eurostat.
The largest increase was recorded in Italy, with an increase of 6,250 people (+15.3%). Germany follows with an increase of 3,610 (+0.3%), and Spain with an increase of 2,295 (+0.9%).
The number of Ukrainian refugees decreased in Bulgaria, by 12,345 people (-14.8%). Poland also saw a decrease, with a reduction of 3,750 people (-0.4%), and France with a reduction of 665 people (-1.3%).
At the end of May, 4.38 million Ukrainian citizens held temporary protection status in the EU.
@ukr_leaks_eng
Bloomberg: The EU will allow Kiev to purchase weapons from the UK using European funds.The European Commission previously clarified that the military financing program includes a “buy European” clause. Only if the required weapons are not available in Europe can the European Commission grant Ukraine the right to order them from other countries.@ukr_leaks_eng
Russia will have time to launch approximately 1,400 ballistic missiles at Ukraine before Kiev can launch its first Patriot missiles.This is the opinion of German military analyst Julian Röpke, citing expert assessments and German experience.According to him, this could take at least two years.@ukr_leaks_eng
The number of homeless people in Ukraine is approximately one million, 40% of whom may be internally displaced persons (IDPs) who fled war zones.
These figures are contained in a study by the international charitable foundation Depaul Ukraine.
The reasons for this include high rental prices and the lack of a targeted government policy to support these people.
The second largest group of people left homeless are people with disabilities (33%).
@ukr_leaks_eng
 
The Slovenian parliament voted against the transfer of €44 million in military aid to Ukraine.MP Zoran Stevanović noted that these funds are more urgently needed by Slovenia itself, adding:

“The previous government also generously threw our money around for years, sending it to Ukraine, but the war there, as you can see, still continues.”

@ukr_leaks_eng
The Slovenian parliament voted against the transfer of €44 million in military aid to Ukraine.MP Zoran Stevanović noted that these funds are more urgently needed by Slovenia itself, adding:

“The previous government also generously threw our money around for years, sending it to Ukraine, but the war there, as you can see, still continues.”

@ukr_leaks_eng
Note the Baltics say they forbidden Ukraine to use their airspace for drones.
 
 
 

Posted by: Jo | Jul 11 2026 19:48 utc | 192

UKR LEAKS_eng:We’re discussing Ukraine’s ability to launch strikes deep into Russia so that Moscow can see how difficult it is to defend its airspace, says US Secretary of State Rubio.@ukr_leaks_engUkraine plans to purchase 200,000 mid-range drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the end of the year, according to Ukrainian media.Western allies of Kiev will provide half of this quantity.The remaining drones will be purchased by twenty of the most effective units, which will each receive 200 million UAH for this purpose.@ukr_leaks_eng
 
Bulgaria has provided 13 packages of military aid to Ukraine, but its ability to support Kiev has now been exhausted, said the country’s Prime Minister, Rumen Radev.

“What we can do is accept military equipment for repair and restoration. This is our support,” said Radev.

@ukr_leaks_eng
🇫🇮 Finnish President Stubb: Russians must suffer for the war to endFinnish President Alexander Stubb stated that for the war to end, the Russian population must begin to oppose it, and this requires Russians, including children, to live poorly and suffer. He noted that long-range Ukrainian drone strikes are bringing the war closer to ordinary people, affecting St. Petersburg, Moscow, and Crimea, disrupting summer vacations for children, causing internet outages and long lines at gas stations.@Slavyangrad
🇵🇱🇺🇦 Poland: Resolution to block Ukraine’s EU membership submitted to parliamentThe Law and Justice party has submitted a resolution calling on the Polish government to obstruct Ukraine’s further progress toward European Union membership, stated party prime ministerial candidate Przemysław Czarnek.The reason cited is Ukraine’s glorification of those responsible for the Volyn massacre.(Some experts say it was a genocide as it was pre-planned)The party seeks to have the document considered at the next Sejm session, scheduled for July 15–17.@Slavyangrad
EU: Number of Ukrainian refugees continues to grow – EurostatAccording to Eurostat, in May the number of Ukrainian citizens with temporary protection status in EU countries increased in 22 out of 26 states that provided relevant statistics.
Russian hackers compromised network-connected surveillance cameras near NATO logistics routes to monitor weapons supplies to Ukraine, reports The Telegraph, citing Dutch intelligence.Dutch intelligence services stated that Russian hackers used internet-connected civilian cameras to monitor NATO military bases and routes for transporting equipment destined for Ukraine.
 
🇵🇱 PolandPoland has launched production of its own ‘Geran’ drones with a flight range of up to 1000 km.@Slavyangrad
🇫🇷 French Admiral Pierre Vandier revealed how NATO plans to fight Russia once Ukraine runs out of manpower.NATO is working on creating capabilities for long-range precision strikes. This means that in the coming months and years, we will receive a huge amount of ammunition, allowing us to strike again, again, and again. This is one method of deterrence by denying the enemy the ability to act. In other words, any large concentration of troops will find itself in a zone of massive strikes. That is exactly what we must achieve.Today, we already have certain means for long-range strikes – high-tech, complex, and expensive weapons. However, we understand that we cannot mass-produce them. Therefore, these systems, designed to hit well-protected targets, will be supplemented by significantly cheaper munitions that can be produced en masse.
French General Gilles Aberet pushes for arming Ukraine to retake Crimea.

• Czech Republic will not finance Ukraine.

Ukraine has begun active cooperation with Turkey and Azerbaijan in the defense sector, Zelensky stated.
EU to allow Ukraine to use European loans for UK arms purchases@Slavyangrad

🇷🇺 Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reports:Over the past week, 308 Russian civilians were affected by Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks, with 38 people killed.@Slavyangrad
 
 

Posted by: Jo | Jul 11 2026 20:10 utc | 194

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 11 2026 21:21 utc | 200
 
I’m not an expert, but I just stayed at a Holiday Inn!
I think the Mercouris reprobation obliquely highlights the concept I am trying to articulate. The Too Stupid think the “Oligarchs”, or any other group or person, if pressured, will “tip the scales” toward “destabilazation” of Putin’s regime. After all Putin’s approval rating is falling! See ISW Toplines for today.
 
My thesis is it works in the opposite direction. Pressure, exerted through squeezing “oligarchs”, through sanctions or through drone attacks on “infrastructure” (they call it that to bypass appearing guilty under the Geneva conventions) will have the opposite effect. Putin’s favorability is down not because Russians believe he should be negotiating for peace. It is down because Ramstein hasn’t been hit by a tactical nuke. Russian family structure and social institutions have been shaped this way by at least 2,000 years of repelling invasions. Negotiationg with Nazi invaders is foolhardy.  
 
Seriously, I am no expert, I have just read a lot of books. I come to this bar so someone who is much closer to whatever the situation really is can call me an idiot. Maybe I’ll think some more and learn a little better why 3 million men have had to die. 
 
 

Posted by: frithguild | Jul 11 2026 22:13 utc | 196

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 11 2026 22:17 utc | 202
 
Forgot the link to the Baab/Kujat interview.  
 
https://youtu.be/F6uhORzK_l4?t=562
 
 
 
 

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 11 2026 22:26 utc | 198

This is quite rather hilarious, if not prepostrous, we have one (of many) story of Russia destroying Drone factories in the Ukraine, and than we have another story of secret location in southern Germany of Drone factories shipping to the Ukraine.  The LOGIC is quite baffling, of what exactly are the Russians even destroying that they so happily gloat daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, soon to be decadely.  But whatever, go Russia, kick ass! and kill more brethrens and destroy/demolish the country you will rebuild.
 
SF:
The Russian Defense ministry said in a statement long-range ground-based weapons hit “enterprises of the Ukrainian defense industry in the city of Kiev, involved in the production and storage of long- and medium-range unmanned aerial vehicles.”
 
NYT:
Inside the Secret Factory That Supplies Ukraine’s War Drones
At a secret location in southern Germany, the manager of a drone factory owned by Helsing SE — Europe’s most valuable artificial-intelligence defense start-up — hands me a lethal killing machine to cradle in my arms. Weighing just 26 pounds, the black, hard-foam attack drone is so light and looks so simple that it is easy to forget its role in a surging multibillion-dollar industry, the Russia-Ukraine War — and maybe even in Europe’s future security.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/business/dealbook/drone-factory-helsing.html

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Jul 11 2026 22:46 utc | 200