English Outsider: Why Europe’s Provocation Of Russia Is Likely To Fail

July 1, 2026

by English Outsider
lifted from a comment
—

“My prognosis and I hope I’m wrong: EU will find ways to send drones/missiles into Russia until they get Russia to react in the same way. A Russian missile hitting a German factory, say, is a *good* event for Brussels. I believe they have the intention and the tools to achieve that.”
Posted by: Konami | Jul 1 2026 8:35 utc | 317

Yes. They need some more “unprovoked Russian aggression”. Then the European populations will get behind Cold War II. We’ll have to tighten our belts to pay for it but will do so willingly given the “Russian menace”. Who cares about potholes when the enemy is in plain view?

Can’t see it working. The Russians have too many options, military and economic. This is not 2022.

It’s true that up until early ’22 the Russians had a range of options as well as a reply to NATO aggression. They could have used economic levers or diplomatic. Or they could just have waited it out: both the USA and Germany, the only significant players in the West, were going downhill fast and were plagued with internal problems.

So there was no need for the SMO. No need for military action as a response to NATO aggression. Leave it a while, let Putin and Lavrov hold the fort with the diplomatic stuff, and the problem of NATO aggression would sort itself out. Except – the Kiev forces were mustering on the LoC and there were no economic or diplomatic options open to the Russians that would ward of that threat. Only direct and forceful military action would serve.

So in 2022 we had succeeded in narrowing down the range of options open to the Russians to one. Use of overt military force. Not only had we forced the Russians to that one option of the use of military force. Once the Russians had resorted to military force a battery of sanctions could be imposed to bring them to their knees.

But that’s not going to work again and the Western powers are foolish to expect it to. We should be aware of the reasons for that.

First, we forget what a shock the Russian military action in 2022 was. The Russians had virtually no international diplomatic support for that military action and very many within Russian itself were appalled. It took a couple of years for that to change. Today, in 2026, if the Russians respond forcefully to the current provocations, most of the non-Western countries will know why and although they may be too scared of the West to actively support the Russians, there are none I think that will now be actively opposed. When it comes to world opinion the position is therefore quite different from the position in 2022.

That’s important to the Russians. It’s the non-Western countries they want good trading relations with, not us. The fight for hearts and minds, the “information war”, has been comprehensively won by the West within the West. Not outside the West.

Worth a digression here, to look at quite how comprehensively the West has won the information war as far as we Westerners are concerned. There are a few isolated bubbles of dissidence like “b’s” blog and similar blogs in the States but for most in the West, the Russians are the baddies and such opposition to fighting them as there is does not spring from any conviction the Russians are in the right. Merely from the pragmatic consideration that though we’re in the right, we’re losing.

There is little noble moral conviction in the West behind popular opposition to the war. Merely the recognition that in fighting the Russians we’re not harming them as much as harming ourselves. Weidel or Wagenknecht do not say publicly, and dare not say, “We’re in the wrong. We should recognise that and mend fences”. They say only “We cannot afford this war and it’s harming us.”

Though to be fair I’ve heard La Fontaine hinting at the first position. But do such as he have any traction in current German politics? You’re the expert on German politics but to this outsider, it doesn’t seem that he does. We have to recognise that the Merz/von der Leyen position is more morally consistent than Weidel’s. Given that Merz and von der Leyen assert the Russians are 100% in the wrong, what else can we do but resist the Russians with all the means we have and no matter the cost?

That digression’s important because until we in the West do recognise that this war was forced on the Russians by us, that it’s the Russians who are in the right and we in the wrong, there is no moral basis to opposition to it. But it’s not important outside the West. As far as they’re concerned we’re a bunch of rogues and as far as they dare – though they don’t dare very much in most cases – they support the Russians in trying to hold us in check.

That was not how they felt in 2022. So the difference between 2022 and now is that back then we were the winners in the information war. In 2026, and outside the West, we’re now the all time losers. That was how non-Western opinion was swinging well before Gaza and Iran and of course, after Gaza and Iran it’s case closed for I think all non-Western countries. We are now indisputably the baddies.

The second consideration is the economic. In 2022, and for all but a few oddballs and dissidents, we looked to be set fair to bring Russian to it’s knees with sanctions. Don’t need any lengthy digressions to see the change there. The Russian economy still has a few wobbly bits but in general, the sanctions have enabled them to strengthen their economy to a degree unimaginable in 2022. In 2026 it’s us the sanctions war is hitting. Hard.

Hence our attacking Russia with drones and missiles to, as you say, attempt to force a response. That’s the West’s Hail Mary. But this is not 2022. Then, the Russian options were narrowed down to one and they had no choice but to take that option. Today, they have an entire menu of options in response to NATO aggression and no need to worry about what their new trading partners think of it all. Unless we’re in the Hamish de Bretton-Gordon camp and still hope to bring Russia to it’s knees (and even that camp knows they’re punching air) all we can do is sit and wait, to see which option the Russians choose.

…………………………

My money’s not on the Karaganov option. More on what we can call here on “b’s” site the JR-L option. Ukraine is penetrated through and through with Russian Intel. It has an underground resistance just waiting for the word. Popular dissatisfaction with the Kiev regime is gathering force. And even a couple of years ago there were local regime officials wanting to mend fences with the Russians before it was too late.

Kiev is not Berlin 1945, holding fast until the very last days in the bunker. More like Kabul 2021. If that Kabul scenario evolves much further, the West’s Hail Mary will be a damp squib. There will be no proxy territory to launch drones and missiles from.

Posted by b on July 1, 2026 at 15:01 UTC | Permalink

Comments

B, as far as I can read from the EO, the issue is that europe will break before bending (without an existential narrative/political collapse)

New (limited?) theaters will be attempted.

And EO’s main point is that RF now has RoW’s approval (or at least comprehension)

This doesn’t bode well for western europe (nor for the us if they can’t uncouple fast enough)

My 2 cents

Posted by: Newbie | Jul 1 2026 15:21 utc | 1

Wagenknecht und Weidel können nichts anderes sagen, jede Unterstützung für Putin ist in Deutschland eine Straftat: “Unterstützung für einen Angriffskrieg”
Wagenknecht and Weidel cannot say anything else; any support for Putin is a criminal offense in Germany: “support for a war of aggression.”

Posted by: Plexiglas | Jul 1 2026 15:28 utc | 2

Kabul – yes.2022 and the UN vote – while a small majority of countries voted against the SMO, weighted by population a small majority voted to abstain. The non-western world has been closer to Russia from the start. It is also of course far better informed.The Feb 2022 problem was not that Kiev would overrun Donbas before Russia could react. It was that Kiev could force a civilian evacuation into Russia – which would be declared a massive Kiev victory. To stop that Russia needed enough artillery in Donbas to counter Ukraine’s artillery set in the stronglands it had been setting up over a decade with Nato advice.That in turn was impossible without a distraction – the SMO, advances from Belarus, fighting west of Kiev at Hostomol airport but no actual attempt to take even Kharkov let alone Kiev.In one of history’s great ironies, Russia reversd the CIA “False Flag” story of Rebels attacking the Ukrainian artillery forts and actually had a real invasion, albeit very limited. That All Ukraine forces were lined up against the internal Donbas borders and not the external borders with Russia or Belarus makes it clear what the CIA “invasion story” was meant to predecde.The most important insight is that the Russian leadership knew exactly how weak Nato was in 2022, and we didn’t.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jul 1 2026 15:31 utc | 3

lol – i thought this might happen… thanks b… it is worth highlighting!!

here is the JR-L option…

In short, it is my view that internal civil/political turmoil/resistance inside Ukraine is escalating, to the point where it is likely to influence how settling the conflict plays out, indeed even shaping the very future of what a rump nation-state of Ukraine will look like, its attitude towards Russia/the West etc.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 15:23 utc | 391

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2026 15:35 utc | 4

Wagenknecht and Weidel cannot say anything else; any support for Putin is a criminal offense in Germany: “support for a war of aggression.”
Posted by: Plexiglas | Jul 1 2026 15:28 utc | 2

Exactly!

But people in many countries don’t even know that—because that is the case only in Germany!In no other EU country—only in Germany—which suggests a lot about its history!

Even a ( B ) has to be very careful with his choice of words there.He wouldn’t be the first person to get a visit in the morning while wearing a bathrobe.Just a thought!

Posted by: Genesiss | Jul 1 2026 15:35 utc | 5

Why the separate distinction between NATO and Ukraine forces? They are one and the same; uniforms don’t mask the sameness. Who was directing Ukraine forces? NATO. Who runs NATO? The Outlaw US Empire. The Info War has no bearing on the battlefield reality. The West has had its “megaphone” advantage since WW1, and USSR/Russia decided long ago not to waste resources in trying to defeat it. Rather, it uses its direct diplomacy with the Global Majority to explain its position and to point out the many obvious Western lies generated by its Info War. The resulting Western diplomatic deficit in plainly obvious and results in it being agreement incapable. The key indicator in the Info War is the level of confidence Western societies have in their government and media complexes as revealed by polling along with the approval level of leaders, all of which are in the dumpster.

The “Putin must escalate” narrative’s been built for many months and is now joined by the false “Ukraine is winning” narrative–again. Putin has displayed a degree of openness unequalled by the West in his recent speeches and interview with Pavel Zarubin and is hiding nothing from his fellow Russians. Russia’s military and its defense industry are tasked with solving the SMO’s problems and thus neutering NATO–which is still led by the Outlaw US Empire despite all attempts to paint a picture of it withdrawing from the conflict it started. And what of the supposedly hurried consultations of Lukashenko with Putin and then Xi? I see nothing of alarm within them. The main reason Lukashenko went to China: to attend the graduation ceremony of his youngest son, Nikolai, from the Peking University-Belarusian State University 2026 Undergraduate Dual Degree Program in biotechnology. He met with Putin on the way to see if there was something Putin would like pass along to Xi, which he did if there was. Otherwise, there was no formal state visit reception and such.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2026 15:47 utc | 6

@ james | Jul 1 2026 15:35 utc | 3

Thanks for bringing that forward, saved me a job.

Bringing forward my other post from the tail end of that thread:

More like Kabul 2021.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 1 2026 14:30 utc | 386 That’s an excellent parallel, and indeed crystallises the quagmire the West finds itself in, even without putting (overt) troops on the ground. I can still remember almost being able to hear the clashing of gears and squealing of brakes as the entire momentum of the Western narrative at that time had to hurriedly change direction. As for the “JR-L option”, what I find slightly surprising is none of the popular pundits even give the prospect some consideration; not saying it will definitely happen in the way I’ve tried to outline in various posts, just the possibility, the likelihood of internal political turmoil and upheaval needs to be taken seriously when we think about how events could unfold, especially as setbacks and defeats for Ukrainian forces become more difficult to hide, and more and more scandals emerge around corruption and TCC brutality.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 15:16 utc | 388

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 15:48 utc | 7

Hoisted by the formatting, let’s try again:

More like Kabul 2021.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jul 1 2026 14:30 utc | 386

That’s an excellent parallel, and indeed crystallises the quagmire the West finds itself in, even without putting (overt) troops on the ground.

I can still remember almost being able to hear the clashing of gears and squealing of brakes as the entire momentum of the Western narrative at that time had to hurriedly change direction.

As for the “JR-L option”, what I find slightly surprising is none of the popular pundits even give the prospect some consideration; not saying it will definitely happen in the way I’ve tried to outline in various posts, just the possibility, the likelihood of internal political turmoil and upheaval needs to be taken seriously when we think about how events could unfold, especially as setbacks and defeats for Ukrainian forces become more difficult to hide, and more and more scandals emerge around corruption and TCC brutality.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 15:16 utc | 388

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 15:50 utc | 8

The argument feels like a Hail Mary pass based on a theory of Russian strength and Western weakness that is not supported by the available evidence. The comment relies on a narrative from early 2022 that has not held up. It is reminiscent of the unfulfilled hopes for Hamas and the Resistance bringing Israel to heel during the Gaza genocide. Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.

Some of the specific claims, like the “underground resistance just waiting for the word,” have a factual basis but are stretched to fit an overly optimistic scenario for Russia. Other claims, like the ability to simply “wait out” the West, are undermined by evidence that economic conditions are more complicated. The argument ignores the complex, costly, and ongoing nature of the war and instead substitutes a preferred hopeful outcome for a realistic assessment.

The argument claims Ukraine is like Kabul 2021, ready to collapse. This is an overly optimistic view for Russia. The Ukrainian government has more legitimacy, control, and popular support than the Afghan government did after the US withdrawal. The idea that Russia can simply wait out the West ignores the economic reality for Russia. Western sanctions on Russia’s oil revenues, while imperfectly enforced, have caused significant financial strain.

The comment dismisses the “Karaganov option” (nuclear escalation), but this is a real and documented part of Russian strategic thinking. Sergey Karaganov is not a fringe figure. He is an influential political scientist and a member of the Scientific Council under the Security Council of the Russian Federation.

While not official policy, such statements from a figure with Karaganov’s ties to the Russian state function as a way to signal intentions and shape the narrative of what is possible. Dismissing it as an unrealistic choice is a serious analytical error. See the recent Mearsheimer Karaganov discussion on Deisen’s podcast for a credible realistic analysis.

The commentary is superficial presenting a wishful scenario where the West’s position is crumbling and Russia holds all the cards. The reality is a grinding war of attrition, where Russia has clear threats and capabilities, but also faces major economic challenges and a war that is far from won.These are subjective views that lack sources with supporting evidence to back them up.

The argument’s weaknesses are varied. The idea of a smooth, Afghanistan-style collapse ignores the reality of a brutal occupation and robust Ukrainian resistance. It dismisses the real strain sanctions are putting on Russia, which is counter to the evidence. It brushes aside the explicitly stated nuclear threats from influential Russian figures, treating them as fantasy rather than a core part of Russia’s available strategy.

Posted by: Manifest Destiny | Jul 1 2026 16:00 utc | 9

Even in Germany cracks are showing. Very fine cracks, but cracks. With some disbelief Der Spiegel was reporting some poll results where the USA hit an all time low in trust, and even Xi (gasp) was considered more trustful than Trump. Yeah, no surprise for the folks here, but in MSM this is a bummer. Today, as EO was mentioning Lafontaine, an interesting article on a blog where he also frequently writes. Payback for Double Standards – How the West Lost the World’s Trust.
The latest Democracy Perception Index is really telling. Money quote from the article:

In most parts of the world, China enjoys a better reputation than the United States. And according to the study, none of this reflects a rejection of democracy as such—support for democratic governance remains high worldwide. What the world rejects is the behavior of those states that claim to lead it.

The article is in German, so use your favorite translator, and it has a link to the DPI, next thing for me to read.
Ciao
Tom

Posted by: Tom D. | Jul 1 2026 16:04 utc | 10

If in fact Ukraine was going to attack the Russian separatists, then Putin was foolish to not let Ukraine strike the first blow – and THEN hammer Ukraine with prepared forces.
But on the other hand: in terms of unprovoked aggression: Iran, Libya, Syria… I mean, while I can see that Putin was perhaps justified in trying (and failing) to lighting take over Ukraine like he did with Crimea, he nevertheless did launch a major military invasion that was not in response to a direct military attack. But compared to how the west has behaved in Iran, or Syria, or Libya, it makes Putin look like a pacifist.

Posted by: TG | Jul 1 2026 16:22 utc | 11

Wagenknecht is Lafontaine’s wife, btw. And while it’s true that she – as everyone – has to be very careful to utter anything positive about Putin, I recall several statements when she addressed the NATO expansion as the root of the conflict. She’s balancing on a tightrope because she knows that common people are completely brainwashed with regard to Putin/Russia.

I notice also that Russian history and Russian culture is increasingly targeted in Germany. Yes, it smells of war.

Posted by: mk | Jul 1 2026 16:22 utc | 12

Who cares if 404 is left as a giant mined graveyard ? The Russians need a buffer zone and the EU need a war to force federalization on it’s member states. They needed a plandemic to grab some power that are not in the treaties , they use this one to grab even more powers that are not in the treaties … a classic “Ratchet effect”. And the US ? Too happy to see the heartland in shamble because of their policies , for the rest : business as usual , the EU is still a vassal and should never have any form of independence : better if they are weak.

Posted by: Savonarole | Jul 1 2026 16:23 utc | 13

Few are cognitive of the fact the West has been perpetrating biological warfare against the Russians. Hunter Biden and John Kerry’s son physically went to Ukraine and established dozens of biological laboratories each working on their own subsection of the overall assault against Russia. Some laboratories has 100 of the world’s most deadly strains of viruses and other labs infecting migratory birds to spread diseases targeting specific crops. Some laboratories advertised asking for ethnically Russian blood/organs/fetal cord blood and had scary stories about people disappearing.

If anyone is claiming the Russian actions in Ukraine are unprovoked stop paying attention to those people because they are incorrect

Posted by: Hot Carl | Jul 1 2026 16:24 utc | 14

Posted by: Manifest Destiny | Jul 1 2026 16:00 utc | 8

You’ve made the all too common mistake of overlooking, or disregarding, the internal situation in Ukraine.

At a charitable best, it is unstable, with the governance structures in a constitutionally grey area, relying on external finance in the form of loans and grants, with a population facing daily difficulties with energy, food and transport supplies and has long since exhausted its pool of willing military volunteers.

More accurately, it is a failed state, with a delegitimised junta clinging to power surrounded by boiling clouds of corruption scandals; bands of enforcing thugs roaming the nation beating up and in some cases killing those they are supposed to be “recruiting”, in turn aggravating militancy among ethnic groupings such as the Roma or the Hungarians.

There is also a demographic disaster zone resulting from mass fleeing from the country at the onset of hostilities.

Its territory is eroded daily, with no realistic prospect of restoring its constitutional borders.

Energy and transport infrastructure are stressed to breaking point.

In your view, why does the West continue to support such a mess? What does a successful outcome for the West look like and how likely is it to be achieved?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 16:29 utc | 15

Wagenknecht and Weidel cannot say anything else; any support for Putin is a criminal offense in Germany: “support for a war of aggression.”Posted by: Plexiglas | Jul 1 2026 15:28 utc | 2

Exactly!
But people in many countries don’t even know that—because that is the case only in Germany!In no other EU country—only in Germany—which suggests a lot about its history!Even a ( B ) has to be very careful with his choice of words there.He wouldn’t be the first person to get a visit in the morning while wearing a bathrobe.Just a thought!
Posted by: Genesiss | Jul 1 2026 15:35 utc | 4

I like this notion that English Outsider could be used as the corporation artificial person that prevents piercing the veil from Germany’s state-sponsored lawfare indemnities. 🙂 It is so creatively legalistic it’s funny. And since it is absurd, and the world is absurd, it must ergo be the truth. 😉

Posted by: titmouse | Jul 1 2026 16:33 utc | 16

Well I am convinced Ukr and friends will try to push red lines even more by trying further similar “operation spider” operations against nuke bomber bases despite Russia seriously complaining about the first one.

Posted by: Jo | Jul 1 2026 16:37 utc | 17

Indeed, as said above, many people who claim to be against waging war on Russia for strategic or manpower or resources reasons, or whatever, most probably also have a wiser view of the international situation and of how the West shares the guilt of causing this bloodbath. It’s just that it’s currently impossible to tell it openly, if you don’t want to be a political and social outcast. Though I suppose a few politicians would actually be brave and foolish enough to do it. For instance, in France, I’m pretty sure someone like Villepin has a far more nuanced view than Macron’s official position. I wonder about someone like Farage, too. Weidel may be opportunistic but I’d bet that deep down Wagneknecht shares the opinion of Lula or former Pope Francis about how NATO fucked up and tried to push Russia into a corner.
Though we can’t know for sure who thinks there were some dire provocations against Russia that played a major part in this war, we should all take notes of the media pundits and politicians who openly cast the entire blame on Russia and push for antagonizing it, and claim it wants war against Europe. Because at some point, there wull have to be a reckoning, including a judicial, penal, one. It’s not just Rutte, Merz, Von der Leyen and Kallas; there’s a lot of them out there openly betraying Europe.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Jul 1 2026 16:44 utc | 18

b – agree fully with the import of this article. Russia needs to concentrate on consolidating gains all along the western front line, and capturing Odessa, all the Black Sea ports right down to the Romanian border and securing the land bridge to Transnistria in order to save the Russian population there from a NATO inspired massacre (just like NATO and the Croatan fascist army performed in the Serbian Republic of Krajina in 1995).

Forget the NATO missile attacks response, other than to increase counter strikes on Ukronazis sites.

Don’t take the bait, keep your eye on the prize! Odessa and Transnistria!

Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 1 2026 16:45 utc | 19

In most parts of the world, China enjoys a better reputation than the United States. And according to the study, none of this reflects a rejection of democracy as such—support for democratic governance remains high worldwide. What the world rejects is the behavior of those states that claim to lead it.

Posted by: Tom D. | Jul 1 2026 16:04 utc | 9

Which democracy is actually being referred to here?

From my own observations… in so-called dictatorships (China/Russia) or other states with a single leader calling the shots……people are more satisfied than in a country that calls itself a democracy but in reality isn’t one… (As long as party donations from oligarchs define democracy, it isn’t one.) Neither America nor—or perhaps especially—Germany…!!

In Russia, people are decidedly more satisfied and “happier” than in the Germany of today… America, with its violence and the formation of slums—devoid of any social safety net—is far, far removed from satisfaction! And it seems as though Germany, with someone like Merz, is heading in exactly that direction—towards a US-style definition of social order and democracy: lots of money, lots of power; lots of money equals having your own president.

Posted by: Genesiss | Jul 1 2026 16:45 utc | 20

Germany and the UK and Ireland have become complete Orwellian states, where censorship and social media enforcement at prime objective of the federal state, not eco development or jobs or energy security.

Just look at the photos from Dublin where Tanaiste (Deputy PM) Simon Harris is giving the Ukrnonazi dictator Volo the First a bear hug at the Irish air base (the Irish have no air force by the way, the base is all for show – no fighter aircraft and no recon planes, and no AWAC’s). The Irish PM Michael Martin is now the President of the EU for a six month term, and has even offered the Ukronazi some obsolete APC’s to show loyalty to the fascist cause.
Pathetic……

Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 1 2026 16:54 utc | 21

What does a successful outcome for the West look like and how likely is it to be achieved?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 16:29 utc | 14

Success is:
The fake jew Banksters own the whole planet, and the labor of all the people living on the planet.

There was a time when gold and silver were money, everything else is credit

But now a days “currency” is loaned into existence by a privileged Bankster when you ask a privileged Bankster to borrow money to buy a house.

The Bankster creates the “principal” out of thin air, lends it to you, then you pay it all back.

But there is a hook! You must pay all the “principal” back, AND YOU MUST PAY (ever) COMPOUNDING INTEREST also.

The Banksters assign an arbitrary value amount bits of the world and work done by people on the world and you must give the privileged Bankster that to.

Since ‘Nixon took us off the Gold Standard’ back in 1971 till today, and not counting the “principal” which was created and then destroyed when paid back, but JUST COUNTING THE COMPOUNDING INTEREST the privileges Banksters have taken out of the world $300 TRILLION DOLLARS that they did no work for.

The Banksters want the natural resources inside Russia to become collateral for privileged debt as currency loans like the Federal Reserve System, and inevitably the Banksters will then own Russia, it’s part of the world and it’s populations labor.

Same with Iran, and the whole world.

Posted by: Hot Carl | Jul 1 2026 17:01 utc | 22

@ TG | Jul 1 2026 16:22 utc | 10

clearly you didn’t follow the events at the time to say what you say here… oh well… i am not doing your homework for you…

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2026 17:02 utc | 23

Minsk II was a delaying action by a desperate NATO in order save the Ukronazi state from complete collapse, like the Afghan state under Taliban attack in 2021, or the Saigon regime in 1975!

A capture of Kieve in 2022 (and RF armored forces were already in the Kieve suburbs, and RF airborne forces were at the airport) would have caused a catastrophic collapse and mass exodus toward the Polish or Romanian borders…………game over!

But this is 2026 not 2022, so new and different tactical movements are necessary……… stay tuned sports fans!

England down 1 – 0 to DR Congo by the way……Perfidious Albion on the ropes!

Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 1 2026 17:06 utc | 24

Thanks, B, for highlighting EO’s excellent comment. I try to keep up with the comments on MoA, but it is a daunting task, and I didn’t see that one. And if it’s daunting for me, I can’t imagine how difficult it must be for the administrator charged with cleaning up.

I have thought that the US was near collapse for 40 years, and I was right. It’s just that the Plunge Protection Team, and now the “Put it on the Public Debt” team has managed to keep us staggering along, food still available, electricity still on, tap water flowing, etc. Most of the benefits go to the recipients, of course, the Wall Street gamblers who still have their private jets flying, their private islands staffed with servants and small children, and their pickled peacock eyes for snacking.
But the debt since that 2008 decision has risen to $39.3 trillion. (Higher since I typed that number). The interest due this year is over $1 trillion. Pretty soon you’re talking real money, the kind of money that can’t be squeezed out of the population any more.
So I persist in thinking that it can’t last forever, and this Iran Hail Mary, trying to get access to Iran’s oil, has failed miserably, and the consequences are not yet felt, but coming soon.

To think that Russia has to export its resources or flop, is typical western thinking, but not true. Russia is capable of complete autarky. It sells its resources to keep the billionaires in Monaco penthouses, not to survive.

In the coming crash, (any day now), Russia will be fine, but America will descend into chaos so severe that its ability to send the military to kill other people and take their stuff will be curtailed.

Maybe.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 1 2026 17:10 utc | 25

Does RF have a George Patton (or Zhukov) style General?

If so, now is the time to let him loose in the stepps!

Posted by: tobias cole | Jul 1 2026 17:10 utc | 26

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 16:29 utc | 14—

[W]hy does the West continue to support such a mess? What does a successful outcome for the West look like and how likely is it to be achieved?

I’m not the troll but will take that bait. Continuing NATO support for its Nazis is exactly that–a continuation of a policy ploy that was hatched in the late 1940s to destabilize the USSR and thus allow the Collective Western Empire unimpeded global plunder via its various Imperialist ventures, particularly its Neocolonialism. The Big Prize ultimately is capture and control of the Eurasian landmass–the longstanding dream of Western Empire. That it was never going to be possible has failed to act as a deterrent, which is why we see a continual trail of double-downs over the last 200+ years.

Currently, the only way the Collective Western Empire can gain its goal is through deposing all opposing Eurasian governments and replacing them with compradors since the Empire lacks the military to formally occupy those lands. Again, an impossible task in reality, but reality has never been a roadblock for Western Imperialists as history proves. Imperial nabobs think their ability to print financial resources will overcome their lack of physical resources and enable them to attain their goals. Russia, China, Iran, and others are showing the great deficit in that assumption. Having established oligarchies throughout the Empire, they have no fear of their publics revolting given their ability to manufacture consent and control the parliamentary forms of government so they cannot ever become controlled by a genuine majority of the people unlike the governing institutions of the Resistance.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2026 17:20 utc | 27

A Michael Droy #3
“To stop that Russia needed enough artillery in Donbas to counter Ukraine’s artillery set in the stronglands it had been setting up over a decade with Nato advice.That in turn was impossible without a distraction – the SMO, advances from Belarus, fighting west of Kiev at Hostomol airport but no actual attempt to take even Kharkov let alone Kiev.”
Agreed.
The Russian heavy artillery started firing on April 13. This is a key event ignored by all Western military analysts pushing the fantasy narrative that Russia was defeated at the gates of Kiev.
Mobilisation and emplacement of the artillery, and the stockpiling and continuous supply of adequate supplies of artillery shells to maintain the level of firing that stunned NATO for months proves two things:
1. The artillery offensive was part of Russian planning for any invasion of Ukraine and had always been part of the planning and conclusively proves that Russia believed it unlikely that the UKR regime would quickly collapse and surrender.
2. The relentless sneering by Western military analysts about Russian logistical incompetence was itself a demonstration of their own incompetence. The sustainment of the artillery campaign was in fact a demonstration of Russian logistical prowess.

Posted by: ltexpatt | Jul 1 2026 17:28 utc | 28

Behind all of this chaos and duplicity lies the two basic forces… insane religious ideologies, and quest for total control and power. These are both aberrated forces, out of balance with humanity. It can only end in disaster. How many times have we evolved up to a high level of technology, and then self-annihilated? Countless. Look down the millennia… we’ve been doing it for longer than you can imagine.

Posted by: aelfwed | Jul 1 2026 17:39 utc | 29

wagelaborer | Jul 1 2026 17:10 utc | 25—

Is there an offramp for the Outlaw US Empire or is it doomed to continual decline until it reaches some nadir? IMO, the one chance resides in overthrowing its Imperialists and oligarchic monopolists and reforming its governing documents. Doing that would require a degree of public solidarity not seen since the Great Depression and would likely need such a recurrence for that to happen. One thing the US public drastically needs is a massive deflation that lowers prices on everything imaginable that will allow wages to follow suit and thus allow the American worker to be competitive globally. The other great need is to reinstitute close to free education with great emphasis on STEM so Americans can become competitive globally. The Trillion Musk now has must be reduced to a few million–the billionaire class must become extinct. Likewise, the entire world needs to endure a deflation reset.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2026 17:40 utc | 30

‘The Banksters want the natural resources inside Russia to become collateral for privileged debt as currency loans like the Federal Reserve System, and inevitably the Banksters will then own Russia, it’s part of the world and it’s populations labor.’

This is why it is impossible to take Putin’s ‘Russian Nationalism’ seriously when Dmitriev’s position in the inner circle is as close to ‘all-powerful’ as one can get.

Dmitriev runs the ‘Russian Direct Inveestmnt Fund’ and his wife works for Katerina Tikhonova – Putin’s daugher!

Question: ‘So, what’s your view of the peace agreement in the Middle East with Palestinians and Israel?’

Dmitirev: ‘Yeah, I think, uh…by the way, Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Marco Rubio, President Trump team did something nobody believed they would do…

The fact that you had hostages come back, that Hamas seems to be holding on to this agreement is really a historic accomplishment.

And it was done – you know, many people believe by lots of pressuring – but really it was done by listening to and understanding the concerns of each party.

And by the way Jared Kushner is one of the people who started this even in 2017-2018 when he started working on the Abraham Accords when he started to get this idea of how do we get Israel to work better with Arab nations and nobody believed he woudl be able to do it.

People would totally think it doesn’t work but they proved the result.

So I think President Putin – by the way yesterday he basically expressed his very positive view of the Gaza Peace Plan that President Trump has done.

So once again we believe it’s a huge accomplishment by the Trump team.

And it’s interesting that you talk about implementation because one of the things that Trump did here that was unqiue is he put a Muslim face on the deal by giving it over to Erdogan of Turkey and also by holding the meetings in Egypt wih Al-Sisi the Egyptian president.

And so now implementation in the day-to-day sense falls within the Arab world.

Well, I think they brought the Arab world together and, by the way, the Arab world has grown significantly and we are very big friends with the Arab world.’

https://youtu.be/FJNVJgirmCU?t=1604

https://www.weforum.org/people/kirill-dmitriev/

So, Dmitiriev is Putin is Russia is ‘Israel’ …

—

And now for something completely different [or not?]

https://youtu.be/yuJqidKLncg?t=126

[these people are everywhere….they are not just ‘the west’ and its ‘imperialists’]

Posted by: Agonizing Reappraisal | Jul 1 2026 17:57 utc | 31

So they need to provoke “unprovoked Russian aggression ” …The EU is getting to be exactly like Humpty Dumpty in Alice In Wonderland…..

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jul 1 2026 18:04 utc | 32

You can never go wrong stating the OBVIOUS.
I got a better one for you to ponder. Why all the Ukrainian “refugees” in europe and missing weapons are a win for NATO

Posted by: Unsafe Data | Jul 1 2026 18:04 utc | 33

Seems evident to me that a state that was already largely lawless, i.e. Ukraine, must perforce have become even more lawless through extensive war and is being used by all sides to profit immensely from that lawlessness, whether it be through narco or human trafficking. Just an observation.

Posted by: Ludovico | Jul 1 2026 18:12 utc | 34

@Genesiss | Jul 1 2026 16:45 utc

Yes, this is clearly reflected in the study. Most people have a stringent priority list:

Don’t get blown ip in a nuclear war
Make yourself and your kids a living
Free speech
Democracy

I find this logical and am always surprised that the west has the order the other way round.
But as I wrote, I have not yet read the original study, which is a pain on a smartphone.

Posted by: Tom D. | Jul 1 2026 18:15 utc | 35

US vengeance weapon attacks, participated in by its lap dogs have absolutely no effect on RF operations and logistics east of the Dneipro!

Hitler used V-1 and V-2 (father of Scud) to bomb London, too only effect headlines.

FDR and Churchill stuck with their operations.

Lap dog diversions must be replied to east of the Dneipro and on value targets in Kiev and Lwow.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 18:18 utc | 36

That All Ukraine forces were lined up against the internal Donbas borders and not the external borders with Russia or Belarus makes it clear what the CIA “invasion story” was meant to predecde.The most important insight is that the Russian leadership knew exactly how weak Nato was in 2022, and we didn’t.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jul 1 2026 15:31 utc | 3

Back in 2022 maps were found from captured joint Nato/Ukraine command posts that suggested after invading Donbass, the AFU would have invaded first Crimea, then Taganrog and Rostov.

In Donbass and Donetsk and Lugansk they would have caused a massacre of millions, if they entrenched there, RUAF would have had a hard time getting them out at all. But there’s indications they were planning to invade Russia after that. Obviously the goal to cause government to collapse with chaos and attacking Russia.

Posted by: unimperator | Jul 1 2026 18:18 utc | 37

@20

Genesis,

This aging American is weary with Trump running the U.S. vast war machine as Mussolini did the ill performing fascists in Italy.

Iran or Kiev are Trump’s Ethiopia mess.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 18:24 utc | 38

I have thought that the US was near collapse for 40 years, and I was right.
– Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 1 2026 17:10 utc | 25

Well said, and it’s the same feeling I have for Europe. I belong to the generation that’s old today, the baby boomers, and we have been joking throughout the years that we’ll live to see the earth burn and the world go to hell. And that’s what’s happening now. It’s no more a joke. However, what seems to be immediate may take years and perhaps even generations.

That’s why I think it may take a very long time before Ukraine implodes. Helped by those billions of Euros that European leaders so generously pour upon the corrupt leaders we’ll see impoverished European populations under attack from Ukrainian migrants with tons of smuggled weapons to their disposal – before the expected breakdown of everything.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jul 1 2026 18:30 utc | 39

Eighty-five years ago this June the nazis launched their invasion of Russia with almost four million men. They pursued a policy of vicious cruelty and scorched earth . When the Russians came back all the way to Berlin, the Red Army paid them back in spades. EU, NATO , and the U.S. should think about that.

Posted by: Space Cowboy | Jul 1 2026 18:31 utc | 40

Cold War II?

More like WWIII, but in full earnest. It’s already started but most people don’t realize it yet.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Jul 1 2026 18:45 utc | 41

Posted by: Manifest Destiny | Jul 1 2026 16:00 utc | 8
I was prepared to dispute individual points but your arguments rely on conjecture, not fact. Russia’s use of nuclear weapons for example is conjecture, based not on rules of engagement or doctrine but on third party opinion. This seems to resonate in the West’s narrative because the West is more likely to consider using them, not because Russia is.
<P>
More generally, your assessment is blinkered – you consider the outcome of the war uncertain, but fail to mention that all the advances are Russian and MOA and DOA figures dramatically favour Russia. Where are the Ukrainian advances? The drone attacks are strategically unimportant and echo an endless series of underperforming wunderwaffen.
<P>
Similarly, the claim that Russia’s economy is crumbling is clearly hyperbolic and you fail to provide objective evidence. Ru GDP growth for 2026 is 1.1%. EU area GDP growth was forecast as 1.1% but has contracted by .2% in Q1 according to IMF and other global sources.

Posted by: jorge | Jul 1 2026 18:47 utc | 42

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2026 17:40 utc | 30
Thank you for your reply.

I agree that the billionaires have to go, and that we need deflation. The problem with comparing it to the 30s is two-fold, imo.
Number one is that there was a strong communist and socialist movement, teaching class consciousness to the masses, back then.
That is gone. There are people calling themselves “communist” now, but they focus on identity politics and pretending that men can be women. How can we improve the US with such tactics?

Number two is that the US blew through its resources and demolished its production capacity. Back then, FDR could point out:
” Nature still offers her bounty and human efforts have multiplied it. Plenty is at our doorstep, but a generous use of it languishes in the very sight of the supply. Primarily this is because the rulers of the exchange of mankind’s goods have failed, through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men.”

Our bounty is gone. All we have now are the unscrupulous money changers, and they have spent some of their ill-gotten gains on brainwashing the public to believe that they deserve it.

I don’t see a viable way out.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 1 2026 18:52 utc | 43

Not really worth dragging that out of the comments, but then it is Moon of Albion. I suspect b is just screwing with me by this point.

I’d sign off ‘Aussie Outsider’ but it would be a tautology.

Posted by: Patroklos | Jul 1 2026 18:59 utc | 44

wagelaborer | Jul 1 2026 18:52 utc | 43—

Thanks for your reply and its truisms. Yes, close to a majority still farmed at the start of the Depression and the existing Deep Poverty could be cured by employing the political reality that then existed. Cynicism and aloofness are rife and join with narrative control to make attaining solidarity very difficult, although all that was recently overcome in NYC. Also, the vast media difference between now and 100 years ago is crazy as are the distractions it provides 24/7/365.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2026 19:04 utc | 45

‘Hitler used V-1 and V-2 (father of Scud) to bomb London, too only effect headlines.

FDR and Churchill stuck with their operations.’

Hmmm. I don’t know.

The situations then and now are not analogous nor really even somewhat akin to each other given the overriding hierarchical financial structure{s) “Agonizing Reappraisal” wrote about above.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/07/english-outsider-why-europes-provocation-of-russia-is-likely-to-fail.html#comment-1378153

The historical comparisons strike me as rather inept.

They serve to mislead given their utter lack of investigation into, or even the slightest curious about, critical structural mechanisms which were not ‘in place’ back then.

‘Lap dog diversions must be replied to east of the Dneipro and on value targets in Kiev and Lwow.’

They won’t hit Kiev so long as the power structure remains as is.

Kiev is historically and currently very very important to the Jewish Zionist Power structure of which Russia is an integral part.

This also probably answers the question posed by a commenter here the other day who wondered why Putin et al had no problem demolishing Chechnya versus the lighter-glove treatment of Ukraine.

I do believe that much of Russia-Ukraine (and the world) will continue to be sacrificed for the ultimate goal…but Kiev won’t be seriously hurt any more than Jerusalem or Tel Aviv would be.

Posted by: miss jennings | Jul 1 2026 19:07 utc | 46

10 year gov‘t debt interest rates Wednesday:

4,47% USA
1.74% China

Posted by: Exile | Jul 1 2026 19:13 utc | 47

Kiev won’t be seriously hurt

Posted by: miss jennings | Jul 1 2026 19:07 utc | 46

A series of explosions has occurred in Kyiv

https://t.me/i20028843/306144

In the Kyiv metro, people preparing for nighttime air raid alerts begin to gather early

https://t.me/i20028843/306162

It seems to be raining drones at the moment, across many parts of Ukraine including Kiev.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 19:15 utc | 48

On the Eve of the NATO Summit in Ankara

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/07/01/ukra-j01.html

“European powers drive Ukraine war toward direct conflict with Russia. The war in Ukraine has entered an extraordinarily dangerous new stage…”

Carney to Travel to Turkey for NATO Summit Next Week, Then Saudi Arabia

https://nationalnewswatch.com/2026/06/30/carney-to-travel-to-turkey-for-nato-summit-next-week-then-saudi-arabia

“…NATO nations are expected to gather on July 7 and 8 in Ankara to celebrate an alliance-wide increase in defence spending after years of US pressure for member nations to hike their military and national security budgets.

The United Snakes expect allies to present plans to ramp up spending to meet a much steeper benchmark of five percent of GDP by 2035. Carney has said Canada will be able to meet that fiscal target but has been criticized for now showing any plan to get there.

US President Donald Trump has also expressed frustration with NATO countries for not helping him fight the war he started with Iran. Alliance members have meanwhile been shaken by Trump’s bizarre demands for US annexation of Greenland [and Canada].

Ahead of the summit, Canada has been campaigning for allies to support the establishment of a multinational defence bank to finance the defence sector [for war].

On Monday, the prime minister spoke with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte about defence investments and support for Ukraine*, according to a readout from Carney’s office…”

*Canada has contributed approximately $50 billion to NATO-Nazi proxy Ukraine since 2014.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 1 2026 19:16 utc | 49

@NATO/EU

The Russian Orthodox Requiem

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jul 1 2026 19:18 utc | 50

Re: Ukrainians Votng with their feet

Since 2014 people have been fleeing the Kiev Regime. About 1/2 fled to Russia and 1/2 fled to NATO countries. By my rough estimate less than 15 million people live in areas ruled by the Kiev Regime.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 1 2026 19:19 utc | 51

Hot Carl | Jul 1 2026 16:24 utc | 14
You mention biolabs.
Here’s what the AI told me about this picture.

https://www.google.com/search?q=&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&amc=1&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTM5MTJqMGozMagCALACAeoHCggBEAAYACAAKAA&lns_mode=cvst&oq=&udm=50&aep=42&cud=0&source=chrome.crn.rb&cinpts=Cr8BCroBCJX068Lc1aSStQEQARgBIhC5C5DMd-cFMJeKNbXIzXgCMnsiAnJkKA5CcwoubGZlLWR1bW15OjNhYzE0MzJjLTdiOGYtNDNkNS04NTQ1LTU0ODlkNTgzMmViYhJBCj8vYm5zL3JkL2JvcmcvcmQvYm5zL2xlbnMtZnJvbnRlbmQtYXBpL3Byb2QubGVucy1mcm9udGVuZC1hcGkvNzA4o_GX1pSylQNIAFAAYJOh5uyfo6zIEHgAgAEAGAE&gsessionid=LXiadevv1ULpNPzYo-BnSWQ9c3RmCyEdHDlizDzPxIJGxyTNCjHxgw&lns_surface=42&mstk=AUtExfAkYmUjzt8NtIy75POjr7K2RCKuvHvU80erQQIqpe9xS2RAqMYSJ_1bjs8icFQOBocGhqEtgBthL-ViE0JDDDfVGnCgGc7UKsOb7ocpdP7oN9RpXmfH1yIBo-sJ5ALstOKGyfNsur2EV3k20nlb9mmJNuTOrWv4W1k&csuir=1

Posted by: Sany Dnepropetrovsk | Jul 1 2026 19:23 utc | 52

Some Background on Requiem linked above:

The Cappella Russian Male Chorus – Nicholas Afonsky, conductor The Burial Service of the Orthodox Church was composed by a great theologian who also was a great poet and ascetic, St. John of Damascus.

It is a magnificent poem, at once highly lyrical and dramatic, a poem of faith and hope. But lyricism is controlled and guided by a profound theological insight. Human emotions are transcended by a vision of the Divine mystery, and in the same mystery the human drama finds its katharsis and solution. “I weep and I lament, when I think about death and behold our beauty, shaped in the image of God, lying in the grave and exposed to corruption.”

It is a mystery indeed, and a riddle. Man was created by God for life, God did not create death. Death crept into creation by a transgression of God’s will and commandments. Death is, in the phrase of St. Paul, “the wages of sin.” Death is a paradox, a flagrant contradiction. A creature adorned by the image of Divine Glory has become the prey of worms, and yet even in this state of corruption man retains the Divine image.

As St. John of Damascus puts it, “I am an image of Thy ineffable glory, even though I bear the sting of transgressions.” This constitutes the mystery and the paradox. The human sorrow is mingled with and overruled by this sense of mystery, in which human destiny is so deeply involved. But now, this mystery has been superseded and transcended by a greater mystery, more awful and unfathomable. The mystery of human death has been subsumed by the mystery of Christ’s death, of the redeeming death of the Cross.

The death of Christ was the end of death. By His death Christ destroyed death, “trampling down death by death.”

The Cross of Christ has become a new and everlasting Tree of Life, more powerful than the ancient tree of Eden. And the Holy Sepulchre, the grave of Christ, is a perennial spring of life for all men. “I was dead, and I live again, and I have the keys of death and Hades.” In the light of Christ’s death the human death assumes a new meaning. It ceases to be an the inescapable impasse of frustration. It is illumined and transcended by the hope of Resurrection.

By the power of the Cross the grace of New Life has been bestowed upon the whole of humanity. The tragedy of death has been resolved. “Blessed are those who die in the Lord, for their souls will be established in good mansions.” The hopelessness of human sorrow is overcome by the vision of Resurrection. There is no room for despair.

We still weep and lament. We are aware of our human frailty. But we are also aware of Christ’s victory and mercy. Christ is the life, and resurrection, and rest of His departed servants. In Him they have and find eternal rest. In the world we still have tribulations. But we also know that Christ has overcome the world. This calms our sorrow. This calms our mortal anguish. For we are called to enter into the joy of the Master.

Our prayers for the departed are more than cries of mourning. They are witnessing to the mystery of the Heavenly Rest. “Blessed in the journey, which though now enterest, o soul, for a place of rest has been prepared for thee.” This conveys a peculiar ciaracter of solemnity and sobriety to all our thoughts and words about death.

The imagery we use is still biblical. All images were moulded and shaped by people who lived in a desolate world, just on the border of wilderness and desert, with its devastating heat, which paralyses human energy and kills life. Life was possible but in oases, with their springs or wells of living water, with ever green trees.

In the language of the early Christians, the land of the living was accordingly described as a Heavenly Oasis, as a new garden of Eden, with inexhaustible wells and springs, as a place of eternal verdure, as a refrigeriuin, i.e., a cool place. We pray that the deceased may be received into these mansions of perennial freshness, ever green, abundantly supplied with the living water.

And we pray with assurance, for Christ is Himself a spring of living water, running into eternity.

Posted by: Exile | Jul 1 2026 19:24 utc | 53

Posted by: Avtonom | Jul 1 2026 18:30 utc | 39

I’m also a baby boomer, brought up believing that we could all die in a nuclear war any day.
Sometimes I wonder if that contributed to the hedonistic lifestyle of the late 60s/70s. Might as well party like it’s 1999, because we might not make it anyway.

Weird that all these years later, we’re wondering again if we’re all going to go together.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jul 1 2026 19:31 utc | 54

“Today, in 2026, if the Russians respond forcefully to the current provocations, most of the non-Western countries will know why and although they may be too scared of the West to actively support the Russians, there are none I think that will now be actively opposed. When it comes to world opinion the position is therefore quite different from the position in 2022.” ~ English Outsider, via B
____
That’s– ‘world opinion’– exactly the point I– and probably many others have– made in the previous threads with regard to gazafying Israel and/as part of Iran’s ‘long game’:
Set yoursel/f/ves up to be the good guy(s) long enough and patiently enough that, like in a movie, the audience– ‘world opinion’– are cool/impatient with the ‘good guys’ finally packing serious heat and punches.
Of course, who/what is, or is seen as, good or bad can be a matter of war-propaganda and an audience that doesn’t leave for popcorn or a piss in the middle of important scenes (and when there’s no one to fill them in on what they missed when they return).

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jul 1 2026 19:33 utc | 55

To support EO’s optimism, Marat Khairullin’s commentary (bullet points):

Slavansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkova will be taken this year. The same cities that Putin offered as conditions for a “peace” at Anchorage. Trump himself commented that “it would be better to make a deal now, since it looks like Russia will take these anyway.” Once the reality sets in, new conditions can be presented. Starmer is already out, Macron and Merz are not looking steady either. Putin faced internal opposition to the SMO but the European stance and the focus on Ukranian drone attacks far from the front have silenced the opposition. Ukraine is not a pushover force, they are the vanguard of the next generation warfare and Russia has navigated this, leading to a hardened army that is ready to do what is necessary when ordered.

Full interview: https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/welcome-marat-khairullin-english

Posted by: altruisticpunisher | Jul 1 2026 19:36 utc | 56

@Patroklos – there, there, compadre, I still appreciate you🥰

some of us are just “the unknown soldier”.

Posted by: Featherless | Jul 1 2026 19:40 utc | 57

@53

We are all children of God, made in his image and likeness. God loves His children.

Jesus through His passion and death on his Holy Cross redeemed the world.

Have faith, but faith implies works.

Human death is the gate to Christ redemption.

Trust in Jesus.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 19:41 utc | 58

@paddy | Jul 1 2026 19:41 utc | 58:

____

You appear to be attempting to sell your own beliefs. That’s all fine and nice until it becomes a coercive imposition over a captive population within a certain geographical area, such that the nation-state– yet another religion– currently does.

Planet Earth has been taken over by a patchwork of State monocultures– Russia, China, Iran, America, Ukraine…– and nature abhors a monoculture.

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jul 1 2026 19:48 utc | 59

@wage laborer – IMO as part of divide and rule, dividing the generations, the “Culture Wars”.

remember Timothy Leary, MKultra and the whole LSD counterculture thing, which was PURE ASTROTURF.

Posted by: Featherless | Jul 1 2026 19:51 utc | 60

As I get older, it becomes more and more obvious to me, that much of our “political/cultural disagreements” are there, DELIBERATELY, just to divide us. Call it “Culture Wars” if you want, but it’s classic divide and rule.

and then they turn around and present this as “proof of freedom of thinking, and Democracy”. It’s a pure FRAUD.

Posted by: Featherless | Jul 1 2026 19:55 utc | 61

Not really worth dragging that out of the comments, but then it is Moon of Albion. I suspect b is just screwing with me by this point….
Posted by: Patroklos | Jul 1 2026 18:59 utc | 44

Yes, it’s all about you.

Posted by: ChatNPC | Jul 1 2026 20:00 utc | 62

I suppose it might be worth remembering that Europe’s jugular vein is its reliance on sea-based imports; imports of energy, raw materials, components, some foodstuffs.

An escalatory pathway available to Russia, should it become necessary.

I certainly wouldn’t want to be anywhere near a LNG carrier being struck by a P-800 Onyx missile. Forget smoking refinery tanks, now we have some gruesomely spectacular televisual optics. And of course, the owners of the remaining LNG carriers will say “No way, no how, no more”; apparently the global fleet of these specialised vessels is 40 or so in number.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 20:03 utc | 63

“As I get older, it becomes more and more obvious to me, that much of our “political/cultural disagreements” are there, DELIBERATELY, just to divide us. Call it ‘Culture Wars’ if you want, but it’s classic divide and rule.”
~ Featherless | Jul 1 2026 19:55 utc | 61:

____

Forks in the evolutionary path. That’s ok. As long as attempts at division are not in the contexts of actual attempts at control within a monoculture, a Matrix, a Truman Show– rainbow crosswalks, coercive taxation, State koolaid and all that.

My tribe is an anarchist tribe. Green anarchist. Why would I want your State? But it’s a Matrix over me.

____

“The state has moved into many new areas as they become significant… This expanding role of the state helps prevent the rise of any significant competing forms of social organisation…
The obvious point is that most social activists look constantly to the state for solutions to social problems. This point bears labouring, because the orientation of most social action groups tends to reinforce state power. This applies to most antiwar action too. Many of the goals and methods of peace movements have been oriented around action by the state, such as appealing to state elites and advocating neutralism and unilateralism. Indeed, peace movements spend a lot of effort debating which demand to make on the state… By appealing to the state, activists indirectly strengthen the roots of many social problems, the problem of war in particular…
Many people’s thinking is permeated by state perspectives. One manifestation of this is the unstated identification of states or governments with the people in a country which is embodied in the words ‘we’ or ‘us.’ ‘We must negotiate sound disarmament treaties.’ ‘We must renounce first use of nuclear weapons.’ Those who make such statements implicitly identify with the state or government in question. It is important to avoid this identification, and to carefully distinguish states from people…” ~ Brian Martin, ‘Uprooting War’

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jul 1 2026 20:14 utc | 64

Yes, exactly. What is a country ? It’s several things : the Land, the People, the Government.

it is VITAL to remain aware of that distinction ! Or else it’s just muddled thinking !

Posted by: Featherless | Jul 1 2026 20:18 utc | 65

@Featherless | Jul 1 2026 20:18 utc | 65
____
We all have a capacity within ourselves, given enough geographical isolation and time, to become entirely novel species. That’s how nature works. To enclose anyone in a glorified zoo, a cookie-cut, a one-size-fits-all that is a State monoculture, is to ignore a fundamental reality; a natural freedom to break away and create a new species, and initially, to simply create new places in which to live and evolve without other-human-imposed coercive constraints that go beyond how we are or wish to become.

When we speak of States here at MoA, we often are speaking through a State schema, or lense, whether we realize it or not and as I think Thomas Kuhn once said, ‘It is the lense which determines what we can see.’.

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jul 1 2026 20:37 utc | 66

While I agree with B’s final para regarding Kiev being more like Kabul, I think that EO’s piece is way too optimistic and ignores the still real pressure the USA and allies can exert on the rest of the world.

I cannot see much of a shift in the RoW towards Russia, if anything the reverse. The loss of allies like Venezuela and Syria was significant and damaging for Russia. Latin America seems to be swinging towards the USA and India also.

To the extent that EO is right about a mood shift it can best be attributed to the impact of US aggression towards Iran and its powerful response.

Also I think there is much not discussed about the position in 2022. I believe that the real trigger for Russian action was the very real threat of Ukraine getting nukes and also the whole biolabs situation. Yes and of course the obvious establishment of a NATO forward base in Mariupol. Since 2008 and again in 2015 Russia has expected a full on NATO attack and has been getting ready. I have long thought that the 2022 SMO was a high risk strategy forced on Russia prematurely ie before they were really ready. But nukes, bioweapons and the major advance base in Mariupol forced Putin’s hand. I think and i guess many of the anti-Putin mob will agree (actually i think so does Putin) that failure to help the Donbass separatists to march all the way to Mariupol was Russia’s actual big mistake and much of the rest has followed.

Of course unlike the restive mob, I fully understand WHY Putin preferred to keep the Donbass in Ukraine. Potentially a much better strategic option, but in this case the strategy failed. it almost worked and originally Zelenski’s win seemed like proof of this success. Cocaine i suspect interfered.

Posted by: watcher | Jul 1 2026 20:41 utc | 67

Much ado about nothing.

Drone strikes on Russia are terrorist action. Yes, there is material and civilian losses.

They do not and will not contribute to tactical, operational or strategic aims. Instead of breaking the population’s will to pursue war, just like Iran, the people realise that destroying the enemy is imperative.

The conditions on the battlefield and rear echelons of the NATO homefront speaks loudly to those with the ability to listen.

Posted by: Suresh | Jul 1 2026 20:49 utc | 68

On southfront, Uncut and others are some comments about EU.
– very old powers are struggling to overcome Russia – it must be their`s . (Napoleon, Hitler… ) so the hostility against Russia is not origine “NAZI” but they were used as usefull idiots in an attempt to get it. As Churchill said after WW2: “I`m afraid we have fought the wrong enemy”.
– the EU- originally formed as civil NATO by the US, has become a more and more superpower-in-mind, driven by those old forces, becoming the “fourth Reich”. That`s btw the reason why they cherish the Banderista etc. The “DDR” was a hidden place for the Nazi establishment not 1:1 but as brothers in mind. Suppress the citizens, build up a giant law enforment ( Gestapo is pretty much the same as Stasi) and so on.
– BUT: if EU is really wanting a full blown war, they need to have Russia shooting first. What will not happen, but they try whatever they can using whatever they have to hit Russia, hoping they will react symmetrically against targets in the EU. Even without that, they will fabricate a false flag. A very dangerous game. Russia may wait a long time, but then will hird VERY hard, knowing they must eliminate the elites with one big blow. This may include nuclear weapons in a small scale and US WILL NOT HELP OR INTERVENE. For the US, the EU has become a nasty entity and the more it will be destroyed to the bones, the better.

Posted by: ableman | Jul 1 2026 21:03 utc | 69

Rump Ukraine is getting to be a small place. The recent hacking that said Ministry of Defense shows 2.4 million dead and over 3 million wounded, and both numbers certainly low, that’s just crazy for a country the size of Ukraine. Are there still 10 million total in rump Ukraine? Do you vote for 15 million? Either way this shitshow has been dragged out far too long. Once NATO abandons the project, and they will, Russia starts with a blank slate.

Those who long ago said ” ’til the last Ukrainian” were exactly and precisely correct. So correct it seems possible it always was a project to cause depopulation. Now who would want that? Who practices that? Am I allowed to say that here?

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 1 2026 21:06 utc | 70

EO: 1, Konami: 0.

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jul 1 2026 21:08 utc | 71

It seems that when ‘b’ tried to speak about the Rock aka Syrsky’s training camp last Thurs everyone allowed themselves to be distracted by a troll who came in at #1 and distracted the empty heads here who respond to such nonsense achieving exactly what the AI bot set out to do.
If anyone can actually show sufficient interest beyond the usual one-up-manship standard in these parts nowadays they will comprehend exactly what rhyming slang is discussing. The Ukraine army is currently being staffed by ukies tortured half to death by the western ukie loonies. Those who likely wouldn’t object to Russia bombing their camp especially if the Rus hit the mines surrounding the base preventing their escape. The odds of being killed by some nazi sadist are higher for many than taking their chances with a drone attack, prolly even missiles. These blokes are being used as ‘meat’ for Rus to shoot on their way through. Most don’t get a chance to surrender because they are put in places that are particularly vulnerable. The scandal in Ukraine about the Rock are surfacing and I have little doubt that the response from their families is spreading and zelenskyy is about to learn the difficulties of maintaining an ‘army’ fighting Rus while keeping the peasants, who are largely Rus themselves down. down.
Remember that the people of Ukraine who object to this & there are by now a great many, just have to cause sufficient problems for the nazis to distract while the Rus press from the other side. Those who remember know that life under the CCCP was never anything like this and many do and havetold younger generations exactly that.

Posted by: a_user | Jul 1 2026 21:11 utc | 72

Democracy index? More important is the trust index, take the Edelman trust index from 2026. UAE, China 80%, France 42%. It is about:

Trust in four institutions (business, government, media, NGOs)
Attitudes toward the future (how the public expects life/conditions to change)
Confidence/expectations about whether different systems (including the economy/government) are working

Posted by: Teraspol | Jul 1 2026 21:15 utc | 73

here is another discussion of west european humanist ‘democracy.

Posted by: a_user | Jul 1 2026 21:18 utc | 74

The scandal in Ukraine about the Rock are surfacing

Posted by: a_user | Jul 1 2026 21:11 utc | 72

Yes, some of the details emerging about the “Rock/Skela” scandal are horrific. If Ukraine wasn’t “ours” i.e, the West’s, every single “human rights” activist would be screaming from the rooftops, along with the Western female newsreaders (with weird jawlines) solemnly pronouncing the latest moves by their government to bring the “outrage” to an end, including the announcement of wide-ranging sanctions against the offending regime.

The Western nations are world leaders in the gross domestic product of hypocrisy.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 21:26 utc | 75

‘The conditions on the battlefield and rear echelons of the NATO homefront speaks loudly to those with the ability to listen.’ – 68

I have been both listening and watching.

‘rear echelons of the NATO homefront’

The Russian invasion in response to the years of NATO aggression and buildup at its borders began in February of 2022.

So, in close to four-and-a-half years Russia has yet to hit anything of significance in Romania or Poland.

In fact, Russia loves to tout its legalisms and the alleged myth that it only targets military installations and the like but in fact the only thing – other than the grain silo – that has been hit or killed among the ‘rear echelons of the NATO homefront’ have been residential bldgs and civilians.

Absolutely no military facilities or supply routes.

That’s attrition for ya baby!

It of course benefits Russia’s own financial-military-inudstrial-surveillance complex which has an indisputable direct intimate tie to Putin through Dmitriev who himself is thoroughly integrated into the allegedly only ‘western’ WEF global policymaking institution.

And Dmitriev praises Kushner and Witkoff regularly – and not just for politically pragamatic purposes.

Read what he says.

Look at his structurally-integrated linkages.

Posted by: miss jennings | Jul 1 2026 21:29 utc | 76

‘Happy Canada Day: Ukraine Joins You in Celebrating This Day’ – Zelenskyy

https://x.com/dimitrilascaris/status/2072386326867902858

“This is what $25 billion* buys you – lofty praise from a corrupt dictator.”

*That $25b DL cites is only since 2022 – there was another $25 b thrown down the nato-nazi shithole from 2014-22.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 1 2026 21:30 utc | 77

Kirill Dmitriev

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirill_Dmitriev

“Career…”

Beware the oligarchs.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jul 1 2026 21:37 utc | 78

I see new trolls strolling into the bar then vomiting prior to exiting. They spew the usual brew, which is then echoed later. This video short drives them nuts.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2026 21:45 utc | 79

And nobody considers the possibility that Dmitriev is nothing more than a messenger, at best a bait to sucker in the greedy vultures like Kushner and Witkoff ?

Dmitriev has no policy decision-making capability.

Probably for the best that the West doesn’t try to outwit Russia at makirovska…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 21:47 utc | 80

https://t.me/southfronteng/61671?single

Observe the posture of the child. She is contorted and folding into herself because her only parent was abducted by the tcc and is now on his way to the front lines. Can you imagine yourself in her predicament, as a 5yo?

Everything that is coming to Europe is well-deserved.

Posted by: Unsafe Data | Jul 1 2026 22:00 utc | 81

@miss jennings

Please list targets tah are “significant” is poland and ruania.

None I see have any worth in terms of bombs that should drop on 404.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 22:20 utc | 82

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 21:47 utc | 80—

It’s called grasping at straws for they have nothing left narrative-wise. Somehow the Imperial glory days must arise again, but the wherewithal is lacking throughout the West. Excepting that paper money they can print at will. That’s why so much weight was placed on the ability of the Economic War to defeat Russia, China, Iran, and the Global Resistance to the fading masters. Now that ploy’s failed and no other gambits remain except one–bankrupting society to fuel one last battle against a superior foe.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 1 2026 22:26 utc | 83

Latin America seems to be swinging towards the USA and India also.
…
I fully understand WHY Putin preferred to keep the Donbass in Ukraine. Potentially a much better strategic option, but in this case the strategy failed.
Posted by: watcher | Jul 1 2026 20:41 utc | 67

No, and no. On LatAm and India: It’s all about keeping options. If a deal with the U.S./EU turns out beneficial, why say no. Such decisions are not by necessity “anti-BRICS”. And in case anybody is still laughing about BRICS “not even having a headquarters” or a permanent secretariat — perhaps that’s the whole point, totally unfathomable for Westerners who are used to unaccountable bureaucratic structures of finding or creating reasons to exist. BRICS by itself is also about options, not “parallel structures”, “shadow alliances”, being a “counter bloc” or whatever western tea-leaf “analysts” come up with.

On Donbass: Has it already been decided? Where did you get that news?
And yes, Ukraine might be hammering Russia with Flamingos and other brand new tech paid for entirely by western taxpayers. Wow! What an achievement of 10 second fame on TikTok and X. On FP-5 “Flamingo”:

Its current production rate sits at roughly 2 to 3 units per day, with active serial production scaling toward an anticipated target capacity of 30 to 200+ units per month. / The unit cost of the Ukrainian FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missile is estimated to be approximately $500,000 to under $1 million. (Google AI summary, citing Wikipedia et al.)

“30 to 200+ units per month” — as foggy as it gets. With all the grift, “problems”, “delays” and other obstacles nowadays built into western reality, we can bet on the lower end to materialize, until even that no longer does, while Russia already builds counter-measures. As it always did in the past five years. Who’s buying the Wunderwaffen mantra this time?

Posted by: Nervous German | Jul 1 2026 22:27 utc | 84

@59

Ora et labora as the Benedictine monks say.

One believes what is…..

Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 22:27 utc | 85

‘Dmitriev has no policy decision-making capability…’

Right.

Nor does Jared Kushner in the US.

But we know that Kushner is much more than a ‘messenger’ for the administration.

In the same way, Dmitriev – despite no institutional title – Dmitriev is an active shaper of possibilities for Putin.

And because of his operational autonomy independent of the Kremlin – again, a structure actively built and maintained by Putin – Dmitriev is often the ‘last’ voice Putin hears.

This is why Lavrov can’t stand him and had him physically removed from at least one meeting we are aware of.

Dmitriev is essentially Putin’s son-in-law given the close-knit familial relationships.

‘And nobody considers the possibility that Dmitriev is nothing more than a messenger, at best a bait to sucker in the greedy vultures like Kushner and Witkoff ?’

Anybody may consider anything but any dimwit with a half-a-brain who dares to do even cursory research will be better informed of the reality than accepting ‘nothing more than a messenger, at best a bait to sucker in the greedy vultures like Kushner and Witkoff’ at face value.

Posted by: miss jennings | Jul 1 2026 22:39 utc | 86

Thanks, b for positioning this discussion here at this point in time. I’ve been doing my best to keep up, and it is very helpful to have English Outsider’s thoughts starting back when the Special Military Operation began. Also helpful was the following from james at the beginning of the thread – I’m not good with some capitalizations, so thank you, james!

lol – i thought this might happen… thanks b… it is worth highlighting!! here is the JR-L option…

In short, it is my view that internal civil/political turmoil/resistance inside Ukraine is escalating, to the point where it is likely to influence how settling the conflict plays out, indeed even shaping the very future of what a rump nation-state of Ukraine will look like, its attitude towards Russia/the West etc.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jul 1 2026 15:23 utc | 391

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2026 15:35 utc | 4

I will just add to the JR-L comment, that only Russians can tell us what has been happening within the Ukraine diaspora there these years since so many of them fled their homes for safer places outside the country at war. I posted recently, and we’ve had hints of this, that much of the Donbass has been repaired as the SMO has been advancing. So also, many Ukrainians who took up residence in places within Russia and elsewhere have been preparing for the time of return. As now the pace quickens and Novorussiya can be mentioned as a possible goal, I saw on the most recent beginning of the conversation between Nima and Larry Johnson ( sorry, Larry, your cigar is not a good look, nor is it good for your health) that Kiev itself, also a goal, is now increasingly under seige.

My ha’penny’s worth: Novorussiya would be a wonderful name for the newly reforming people’s state in that southern region. But it will be the people themselves who will decide. Let’s not second guess the way this all is unfolding. Let’s appreciate that we are merely spectators as it all unfolds. Much encouragement to the resisters and as some have already noted, eternal memory to those who have fallen, beginning with those early deaths in the Donbass and in Odessa.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 1 2026 22:48 utc | 87

Maskirovka IMO

Posted by: Featherless | Jul 1 2026 22:48 utc | 88

many good comments.. thanks… and to jeremy and karl for challenging the bs too.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Jul 1 2026 22:50 utc | 89

‘Please list targets tah are “significant” is poland and ruania.’

Geez, even my spelling isn’t that bad.

You should ask some Russian ‘hardliners’ the same question. They are sure to have better answers.

Poland and Romania are but two examples of many.

I still can’t believe Russians have to live with any drones whatsoever coming into their territory.

I iive in shitty America and at least there aren’t any drone attacks.

Come to think of it, you are correct:

Russia should continue the slow attrition of Ukraine until it collapses so that the drones will stop completely.

That is better than immediately protecting your airspace and territorial integrity.

Posted by: Agonizing Reappraisal | Jul 1 2026 22:50 utc | 90

Is it “failing?”

One side gets to attack your nation while the attacked nation just sits there. Military logic is lacking here.

Reality is simple, Russia fears NATO because of their massive strike capability, called deterrence.

By Russia dragging this war out too long and only attacking NATO proxy, NATO does not fear any Russian deterrence. Russia is losing its deterrence and fast folks. Because of this lack of response, when it comes to further escalations, Russia may only have the tactical nuke option for the NATO proxy to re-establish their deterrence. Oreshnik’s and other hyper-sonic missiles have been used in the NATO proxy and yet NATO still attacks Russia at will. Get it now?

Posted by: OXI | Jul 1 2026 22:52 utc | 91

@90

You and miss jennings. I should write a song!

Having a yen for long range radars….. if I were wanting to waste RF ordnance, I would shoot the radars that NATO put into Rumania and Poland. They are obsolete Lockheed radars based on SPY 1 which has been on USN Aegis ships since 1986. That would do NATO a favor and save upkeep expenses. If RF needed to tactically “take them out” they could do so easier than Iran took out the most modern US radar installed for huge US dollars in Qatar.

Otherwise I see no objects that RF would destroy which would not save NATO the worry of upkeep!

NATO/EU/US are dying! Rotten to the core.

A few more trillion in debt and it is 1933 again!

Petty, your regard for my spelling and syntax.

Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 23:09 utc | 92

The story on the price of oil goes that China which imported 4.7 million bbls a day pre war has not imported any oil since. This is about 100 days or 450 million bbls not purchased.
Also it is said that China’s reserves have not really declined.
I just came across a 6 minute video on CNN with an American oil analyst who gives an explanation for this and says that the other Asian countries see the US as the one resposible for their oil shortages.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBYxFFmvMAA

Posted by: arby | Jul 1 2026 23:14 utc | 93

Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.

—

‘The argument feels like a Hail Mary pass based on a theory of Russian strength and Western weakness that is not supported by the available evidence. The comment relies on a narrative from early 2022 that has not held up.

It is reminiscent of the unfulfilled hopes for Hamas and the Resistance bringing Israel to heel during the Gaza genocide.

Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.’

—

Vladimir Putin, end of January of this year:

‘I would like to note that our relations are developing today despite all the difficulties associated with the situation in the region.

Of course, in absolute terms, our trade turnover remains modest so far, but the upward trend is evident – trade has increased threefold.

We continue cooperation in the humanitarian sphere as well, including the training of personnel for Palestine.

This year, 150 young Palestinians are studying – and will continue to study – at Russian universities and other educational institutions.

Naturally, security issues are among the most important topics.

You know that during the most difficult periods of the crisis in Gaza, we provided humanitarian assistance – and did so primarily at your request.

Over 800 tonnes of cargo were delivered to the Gaza Strip, around 32 humanitarian operations were carried out, wheat was supplied both directly and through international organizations, again at your request.

Of course, today we will also discuss the current situation in the Gaza Strip, in Palestine as a whole, and along the Israeli-Palestinian track.

We will also address the initiative of the US President concerning the creation of a new structure which, judging by what we see, is primarily aimed at settling the situation in Palestine and the Gaza Strip.

You may have heard that we are prepared to allocate $1 billion to this new structure – the “Board of Peace” – first and foremost to support the Palestinian people, to channel these funds into the reconstruction of Gaza and, more broadly, into addressing Palestine’s problems.

As I have already said, these funds would come from assets frozen in the US under the previous administration.

I believe this is quite feasible.

We have discussed such options before with representatives of the US administration, a meeting and discussion on this matter are scheduled to take place in Moscow today.’

https://www.facebook.com/MIDRussia/posts/pfbid02TB3phKS5RUD8YGuJiv9CFQ3qnfZhFfG9LxQi7ZXU3ooKhJGHRerfnyqGw5mYcAHAl

—

Israel is dropping bombs on tents full of civilians in Khan Younis — in the middle of the night as families sleep.

There is no refuge left in Gaza

https://x.com/sahouraxo/status/2071712310691832299

—

Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.
Israel persists while there is no longer a Gaza thread here.

Posted by: Agonizing Reappraisal | Jul 1 2026 23:22 utc | 94

Dear Barflies, please consider supporting Wyatt at https://www.patreon.com/cw/defensepoliticsasia he is so massively underpaid for his extraordinary contribution to “situation monitors” around the world. Many thanks, A

Posted by: Atown | Jul 1 2026 23:28 utc | 95

Can / will someone explain to me, how it is that odessa is not held high as the primary goal, once donets is attained?i hear various speakers seeking accomodation with the uaf, some throwing a bone to the threat to take kiev, as the final threat.
but the rus cannot allow the uaf to imaintain their port on the black sea….. the threat to crimea and the rus black seba fleet is already proven.
no, odessa, the crown jewel of catherine the great, must be brought back into the loving arms of its russian parent.
the crimes of the banderists must be washed from its streets.

Posted by: James j | Jul 1 2026 23:28 utc | 96

@93

US also reduced its net imports of crude oil by as much as 1 million barrels a day. Which is complex because US exports some crude which may or not have increased to reduce net imports.

The US did this by reducing or drawing down strategic petroleum reserves now down over 200 million barrels since Biden used them to cover oil from RF removed by sanctions!

Also, US commercial stocks are reduced to help cover for missing Persian Gulf crude oil.

There is debate whether US can draw from stocks of crude oil for much longer!

Drawing crude stocks has kept US production of gasoline, distillates (diesel) and kerosene (jet fuel) steady at per Feb 2026 rates. US fuel costs are inflated, but government actions have depressed US crude prices!

US drawing down its SPR could empty them in a month or two.

Trump did very little to refill SPR after Biden drew 170 million barrels.

China has been wise!

Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 23:30 utc | 97

> NATO/EU/US are dying! Rotten to the core.
Posted by: paddy | Jul 1 2026 23:09 utc | 92

Just to add a few EU data points.

The tiny plastic portion bags/containers for ketchup, mustard and dips will soon be verboten, in another clumsy attempt to cut plastic trash. Global effect will be barely measurable, but for diner guests, hygiene standards will be back to the 1960s where 88 dirty hands before you worked the shared dispensers. Unless you opt for the drive-thru, where everything remains unspoiled of bureaucratic overreach.
Von der Leyen’s money-go-round goes full-blown autocracy. Classic net contributors like Germany and the Netherlands are panicking over an unaffordable upcoming 6-year (2028-2034) budget plan totaling a whopping €2 trillion. Of course, the takers (Italy, France, Greece, Spain etc.) want to keep the billions flowing to plug their domestic budget holes.
Ursula also is planning a neat little coup to replace automatic regional funding with hand-negotiated packages tied to “woke” ESG milestones, turning Brussels into a political blackmail machine. To make sure no pesky national parliaments interfere with her grand centralist superstate, she’s also aiming to bypass them entirely by levying direct EU taxes on the peasants.

Not quite sustainable, neither from a financial nor from a legitimacy POV.

Posted by: Nervous German | Jul 1 2026 23:33 utc | 98

‘Petty, your regard for my spelling and syntax.’

Not at all. I made a joke about my own spelling errors.

That this simple jocularity went right over your head may help to explain shortsightedness in other areas but I am not qualified to make that determination.

Posted by: Agonizing Reappraisal | Jul 1 2026 23:37 utc | 99

Weidel has joined the camp of russophobic warmongerers and the AfD virtiually abounds with old school revanchists and proto fascists who get hard-ons fantasizing to put Russia down as a revenge for lost WWII. The only exception within the AfD is Petr Byston who has always plead for a policy of detente and a dialogue with Russia. Wagenknecht is definitely one of the rare German politicians that are not totally moonstruck and in kinda bellicistic trance but her Party the BSW is not in the Bundestag. Oscar Lafontaine has not an iota of public influence in Germany wich is very sad coz he is a very reasonable person but reason is to date not very en vogue in Germany. Another person who should be mentioned is Sevim Dagdelen, also a BSW member. She writes remarkable comments and Essays. My favorite BSW person. If we had more of her kind in Germany I could sleep much better than I do now.

Posted by: Wolfgang Seidel-Guyenot | Jul 1 2026 23:43 utc | 100

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