Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 29, 2026
War On Iran: – Iran’s Negotiators Are Under Pressure

The U.S. is obviously not willing to fulfill the conditions set out in its Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. It will need more pressure from Iran to make the U.S. agree to its demands.

The current team of Iranian leaders who had negotiated and signed the MoU are President Masoud Pezeshkian -a good heart surgeon but unexperienced politician-, Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf -a former IRGC leader and professional politician-, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi -a longtime professional diplomat.

All three are now under critique for multiple breaches of the MoU by the U.S. and the perceived lack of Iranian responses to those.

Some 68 members of 88 men strong Assembly of Experts have published (in Farsi, in in English) a strong admonishing advice to the negotiators to stick to the ten points the Supreme Leader of Iran had defined.

The Assembly of Experts is the elected board of senior Islamic jurists which can elect and dispose of the Supreme Leader. It is residing in Qom. Its assembly building had been destroyed in one of the U.S. attacks on Iran.

Excerpts from the Assembly’s statement:

[W]e expect that, considering the experiences of past damaging negotiations, [the negotiators] will be completely careful of the tricks of the deceitful and bad enemy and pay attention to the fact that observing the leadership’s red lines is a religious obligation and violating them is not permissible under any circumstances.

In accordance with the commitment of the respected officials to the leadership and the people, it is expected that any breach of the agreement and violation of the clauses of the memorandum of understanding will be responded to immediately. Therefore, considering the continuation of the aggressors and crimes of the filthy Zionist regime in Lebanon and the failure to withdraw from the occupied territories, which is a clear violation of the first clause of the memorandum of understanding, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is contrary to the obligations of the officials and is considered a strategic mistake and will make the enemy more bold in continuing to break the agreement and violate its obligations.

The servants of the nation in the Assembly of Experts, as part of the people, will remain with the esteemed leadership and the entire nation, while wishing success to the respected officials, awaiting the fulfillment of the conditions and promises, and will act on their religious duty when necessary.

While the Assembly has no direct means to depose of the negotiators their warning is a powerful signal. It can be understood as an appeal to the Supreme Leader, who can dissolve the government, to intervene in the situation.

Following the publishing of the letter President Pezeshkian has traveled to Qom to explain his view of the situation.

The Parliament of Iran is another institution which is discontent with the current negotiations. The parliament has been closed since the U.S. attack started on February 28. Speaker Ghalibaf has resisted demands to reopen parliament sessions.

Several parliament members want to adopt a binding law to demand a toll or fee for any passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The negotiators want to avoid that as any such law would restrict their flexibility in further negotiations.

Both interventions can be understood as critique of the negotiators. But they are also a device to strengthen the negotiator’s position. The U.S. will have less power to press for compromises when the negotiators can point to the necessity of getting hardliners’ backing for any agreement.

Comments

Sounds like “not an inch” or “not an angstrom” to me … hard ball. 

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 16:01 utc | 1

Isn’t it a “boil the frog” strategy from US, during which each week the war will start on weekend and stop before reopening the financial markets, with the obvious goal to weaken Iranian economic position ?
US is really very good at that kind of bully.

Posted by: W | Jun 29 2026 16:05 utc | 2

Crooke’s SCF essay which was written on the 25th at his substack declares:
 

So, it’s pretty clear what’s ahead — Trump is reverting to his New York real-estate mode of negotiations. In the Art of the Deal, his 1987 book, ghost written by Tony Schwartz, the text advises the use of “extreme and unpredictable demands to create anxiety and force concessions from rivals”.
Thus, we are back to the General Kellogg playbook – – Kellogg advised Trump that the only thing that works with Putin or the Iranians is pressure — and then still more pressure.
Familiar Trumpian tactics. Show a little initial flexibility to tease out adversaries in order to pull them into negotiations; subsequent false claims of Iranian concessions and extreme demands are then used to increase pressure on Iran (whilst Trump appears tough to the angry neocon constituency and to his ‘base’ back home).
This style of pressure may work for New York real-estate deals, but will be ineffective with both Iran and Russia.
Such threats will be counterproductive with Iran, and place the U.S. on a collision course. “The Islamabad understanding was not the result of pressure and coercion, but rather the result of the resistance and authority of the Iranian nation”, Mr Qalibaf, the chief Iranian negotiator, retorted. [Format Original]

 
Crooke then shifts focus to Russia, the SMO and NATO’s antics. Do see my comment on the Ukraine thread that contains some of Putin’s remarks to Pavel Zarubin yesterday. The people under pressure are the Trump Gang and the EU3 along with Zelensky.   
  

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 16:05 utc | 3

Isn’t it a “boil the frog” strategy from US, during which each week the war will start on weekend and stop before reopening the financial markets, with the obvious goal to weaken Iranian economic position ?US is really very good at that kind of bully.
Posted by: W | Jun 29 2026 16:05 utc | 2
 
Except that it is the US and Europe that are the frogs more than RIC (Russia-Iran-China).  

Posted by: Woke American | Jun 29 2026 16:17 utc | 4

@Woke American – it’s like in that movie Blazing Saddles, where the black guy holds a gun to his own head, and holds himself hostage!

Posted by: Featherless | Jun 29 2026 16:24 utc | 5

In agreement with

Except that it is the US and Europe that are the frogs more than RIC (Russia-Iran-China).  
Posted by: Woke American | Jun 29 2026 16:17 utc | 4

 
Thanks
The political establishment of Iran is providing a negotiating backstop for the team and for the world to know they are together at the core of their expectations.
 
I am reading that Iran has not accepted the proposed negotiations tomorrow even though the zionist real estate twins are reportedly on their way.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 16:27 utc | 6

meanwhile, back at the Main Enchilada.  
“This is not a security annex. It is a mechanism for placing Lebanese sovereignty under Israeli judgment and American supervision….” 
pure ethnic cleansing of southern Lebanon, and looting Lebanon of its sovereignty and active national powers, all made subservient to israel and the USA
 
 
 
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/2071468799891554695
Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺  @ejmalrai 
 
What the Israeli-Josep Aoun Secret Security Annex Reveals: 
 
The secret Israel-Lebanon security annex, if revealed as expected, will shake Lebanon because it exposes the real architecture hidden behind the public framework. The public agreement speaks of sovereignty, withdrawal and reconstruction. The annex, however, appears to turn these words upside down. 
 
Israel alone determines the scope of the so-called “pilot zones.” It accepts no fixed timetable and no automatic withdrawal. Everything remains open until Lebanon carries out all the demands imposed on it. Israeli redeployment is therefore not a legal obligation. It becomes a reward granted only when Israel decides that Lebanon has performed satisfactorily. 
 
Israel also defines the security zone. It decides which areas are included, which are excluded, and what the Lebanese army must do inside them. The Lebanese army is not given a sovereign mission; it is handed an Israeli agenda through the American channel. Meanwhile, the Israeli occupation army keeps freedom of movement throughout the occupied area under the pretext of confronting threats — a formula that can justify the continued destruction of villages and homes. 
 
Inside the pilot zones, the Lebanese army is expected to act on maps, coordinates, and target lists prepared by Israel and transmitted by the United States. A US military team on Lebanese soil supervises the process directly. Israel then retains the right to verify the results. Even more dangerously, an Israeli military force may accompany the American team to inspect Lebanese territory. Only if Israel declares itself satisfied does it consider taking a withdrawal step.   
 
The return of Lebanese civilians to their villages, and the beginning of reconstruction are also made conditional on this process. Residents cannot return before Israel, through the American mechanism, is satisfied with the implementation. Reconstruction is no longer a right. It becomes a tool of pressure. 
 
The annex goes further by opening the Lebanese army itself to external scrutiny. A US-supervised mechanism is to examine the army from within, based on Israeli intelligence files listing officers and soldiers accused by Israel of being under Hezbollah’s influence or acting under its direction. The Lebanese state would be required to dismiss anyone who refuses to cooperate with this mechanism, potentially reaching the removal of the army command itself if it refuses to implement the agreement fully. 
 
Finally, the annex creates a financial control system targeting Hezbollah’s networks, supporters and alleged affiliates. Under an Arab and international legal cover, Lebanon would be required to pursue money transfers to Hezbollah through institutions and individuals, open the entire financial-transfers file, and block funds justified as reconstruction support if they are suspected of benefiting Hezbollah. A financial fund under Lebanese authority but American supervision is also proposed, to audit money flows and ensure that no funds reach any entity connected to Hezbollah. 
 
This is not a security annex. It is a mechanism for placing Lebanese sovereignty under Israeli judgment and American supervision. Israel decides the zones, the threats, the verification, the timing of withdrawal and the conditions for return. The United States supervises the army, the maps, the financial system and the implementation. Lebanon is left to execute. 
 
If this document is made public, the earthquake in Lebanon will not come from surprise. It will come from recognition: the public framework was only the diplomatic cover. The real concessions were buried in the secret security annex.
 

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 16:32 utc | 7

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 16:05 utc | 3
 
Ta. And add in Crooke’s short chat with the Judge today as well.
 
The Hegemon has made a massive strategic error in taking on the Islamic Republic. The geopolitical tectonic plates have already shifted and there is very little that the Hegemon can do about it. Tactical withdrawal is the realistic option but it appears Hegemon is incapable of psychologically accepting that it has lost this game – while it remains in denial the economic and political consequences simply pile up … 

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 16:39 utc | 8

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 16:32 utc | 7
 
Thanks Michael for Magnier’s update on that ‘annex’ – the MoU is dead.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 16:43 utc | 9

mou defunct:
 
USAF refuelers, one KC 46 west of SOH, one KC 135 east were sqwalking and running “racetracks” refueling US fighter aircraft, about 0900 EDT this AM.

Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2026 16:51 utc | 10

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: The U.S. says it will not unfreeze any Iranian funds unless progress is made on the nuclear file(Note: It was specifically agreed that nuclear matters would not be discussed at this stage of the talks.)@Middle_East_Spectator
 
Is “negotiator” code for fools with egg on their face? Then you are correct. They just never seem to learn, do they…
 
It was too soon for ceasefire and negotiations. Never too late to keep firing and leave the voice mail open.

Posted by: Unsafe Data | Jun 29 2026 16:55 utc | 11

 psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 16:27 utc | 6
 
Yes, as Don suggests, Crooke’s chat with Judge Nap is explicitly intense. His explanation of the political situation in Iran can be distilled to Iran standing fast by its 10-Points and ignoring Trump’s crap. Iran won and continues to win. Most importantly, none of the tankers leaving the Gulf are going to America where inventory depletion is becoming critical and rationing by price is being derailed by Trump Gang market manipulation along with trader myopia as Hudson suggests.   

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 16:55 utc | 12

I wonder how much longer the illusion that the US and EU have all the oil(s) they could need will last. Add to that the earthquake in Venezuela that left the markets without yet another source of heavy oil … 
Not much left for heavy oils (<32°) ; some Africans fields , a few in south east Asia, Kazakhstan and Canadians heavies … a sum of what : 5~6MBpd , needed 13~15. (If I remember the IAE reports correctly)
Everybody’s dancing , and when the music stop ? The romance will be over ?

Posted by: Savonarole | Jun 29 2026 16:56 utc | 13

Saw a video on Larry Johnson’s Telegram account wherein Pastor Chuck Baldwin claims 900 Americans have been killed and 5,000 wounded fighting for Israel . Also Trump has recalled much of the personnel and equipment necessary for a renewed attack on Iran. Plus in thirteen days the reserve oil supply dips to critical levels, meaning if Trump attacks the grocery trucks stop running. So who does Trump think he’s foolin’?

Posted by: Space Cowboy | Jun 29 2026 16:57 utc | 14

Trump wants to have a peaceful veneer on events going into the midterms, but cannot be trusted to actually implement a real peace…The Art of the Deal is indeed the art of coercion and deception….Iran needs nukes to put an end to this nonsense…

Posted by: pyrrhus | Jun 29 2026 16:59 utc | 15

@  karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 16:55 utc | 12
 
Time to bring in Wag The Dog Dustin Hoffman, eh?
 
He is Jewish….and from the right families.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 17:00 utc | 16

The majority here are on the side of the Iranians(and the Russians) but we need to take care not to just give blind support.  Just because Iran is the good guy doesn’t mean everything Iran does is successful or strategically superior.  This current MOU situation entitles one to question what the Iranians are trying to do.  One example:
 
Israel has not gotten out of Lebanon.  It continues to control ethnically cleansed areas and has now cut a deal with the Lebanese Vichy government.  Iran threatened severe retaliation from the start of Zionist violations yet there has been no Iranian response directed at Israel.  Instead we were told the Strait was closed again.  Even this has been contested by the US military
 
It certainly appears the Iranians are bending over backwards to keep the MOU alive.  Meanwhile the Empire continues to test Iranian willpower, with no fear it will blow up the MOU because America does NOT want peace.  I find it hard to believe Iran’s political class has this much influence over the IRGC.  Are there other players(Russia or China) forcing IRGC restraint?
 
It’s ironic, online there was great enthusiasm for this nonsense of a building rift between America and Israel.  Not one iota of tangible evidence, just wishful thinking from Iran’s online supporters.  Instead we can see that if there is a rift it is on the Resistance side.  The Empire knows exactly what it wants to do.  This is why America continues to be proactive.  The Iranians reactive.
 
Alas the dominant position of the BRICs is to avoid direct conflict with America.  China and Russia have made this perfectly clear for several ears now.  How much longer can the BRICs afford to “kick the can down the road”?

Posted by: EoinW | Jun 29 2026 17:03 utc | 17

The Genocide Jews and Jewed-up Trump are doing what they usually do – negotiating with their fingers in their ears. The Iranians have no other choice than to Rocket & Missile their way to Peace using their home-grown weapons and those supplied by their Chinese protectors.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 29 2026 17:05 utc | 18

 Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 16:39 utc | 8
 
Deep denial is what we’re seeing from all too many that cannot/will not accept the fact that the Outlaw US Empire has lost yet another war–first Ukraine then Iran–although the final reckoning has yet to be lowered in both conflicts. Putin is very confident as is Mojtaba Khamenei. NATO’s inability to recall WW2 history and the reactions of people to the V-1 and V-2 weapons along with Russia’s stand outside Moscow ought to inform them that attempt to conduct a drone and missile terror campaign will bring genuine harm onto them and only fill Russians with more resolve than they now exhibit.      

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 17:08 utc | 19

DW: Elijah Magnier
 
https://www.youtube.com/@dialogueworks01/streams
 
“Iran & US rush to Doha as deal teeters on the brink.”
 
 
Iran War SitRep, June 28/26: ‘MOU Fails, War Returns’
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmfrX55SJRM
 
“Fadlallah: ‘Whoever shakes hands with the enemy is a partner to their crime.”
 
Recommended.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 29 2026 17:08 utc | 20

 
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/29/iran-war-live-tehran-insists-on-control-of-hormuz-amid-reports-of-us-talks
Iran war live: Trump announces Qatar meeting; Tehran says nothing planned 
 
– US President Trump says a meeting with Iran will be held in Qatar’s capital on Tuesday after Tehran “requested talks” following days of reciprocal attacks threatened their interim deal. 
 
–  However, a senior Iranian official says there are no planned meetings with US officials from “technical teams” in Doha this week. 
 
– Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says $6bn of the $12bn of its frozen funds held by Qatar will be released and returned to the country……
 
————————–
 
https://www.palestinechronicle.com/live-blog-lebanon-agreement-faces-growing-resistance-day-121/
Gharibabadi: Doha Talks Reports Cannot Be Confirmed 
 
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said reports by some media outlets claiming that technical working committee talks will be held in Doha cannot be confirmed.
 

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 17:08 utc | 21

psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 17:00 utc | 16
 
Hoffman would probably be a better negotiator if he was allowed to actually negotiate instead of act in the current theatrical production that’s being performed.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 17:11 utc | 22

thanks b…
 
there is no negotiating with a rogue nation, in tow with another one…. in fact, the whole negotiating strategy on the part of the rogue nations is to use this as a stalling tactic to wear down iran… one can be assured at any moment in time, the 2 rogue nations will tip over the game board called ”negotiations”…  it is indeed a game for them… iran has to play this ‘game’ with all this in mind and continue to respond  in a reciprocal and more manner… 

Posted by: james | Jun 29 2026 17:18 utc | 23

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 17:11 utc | 22
—————
This is if the US genuinely wanted to negotiated. They don’t, they want theatre to buy time.
Looking at the MOU articles describing the US commitments, there is no way they would accept that forever. Not even minutes.

Posted by: scc | Jun 29 2026 17:18 utc | 24

thanks karlof1 and michaelj72 – i appreciate all your posts.. 

Posted by: james | Jun 29 2026 17:21 utc | 25

So by mid July there’s not going to be a lot of diesel to do anything anymore.
That’s when there’s no hiding reality anymore. 

Posted by: jpc | Jun 29 2026 17:45 utc | 26

AGREEMENT INCAPABLE.
    The Deceiver’s version of Liars and Cheaters only “negotiate” to buy time so they can hammer you harder as soon as possible. 
    So many in the West haven’t yet figured out that Iran and Russia are fighting for them.
   So many new “Date Collection Centers” and AI Obfuscators to corral blissfully ignorant citizens

Posted by: kupkee | Jun 29 2026 17:51 utc | 27

Iran needs nukes to put an end to this nonsense…
 
Posted by: pyrrhus | Jun 29 2026 16:59 utc | 15
 

 
The current state of events suggests otherwise.
 

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2026 17:52 utc | 28

Something peculiar is going on with petrol prices in Oz.
I run my car on E10 which is the cheapest Oz petrol and recommended by the manufacturer. In late Feb it was circa $1-60/litre. I began tracking the price on March 3rd when it jumped to $1-95.5/litre.
 
It continued to rise until March 31 and peaked at $2-50.5. It declined through April and was $1-74.5 on May 1. It peaked again on May 18 at $1-83.5. It dropped steadily from the May peak and on June 28 it was $1-45.5, ~15c cheaper than the pre-crisis price!?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 29 2026 17:54 utc | 29

It dropped steadily from the May peak and on June 28 it was $1-45.5
 
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 29 2026 17:54 utc | 29
 

 
A rare butcher’s thumb discount!
 

Posted by: too scents | Jun 29 2026 17:58 utc | 30

just because I have been thinking about it for a while but I would like to protest the assertion made by some that the US has lost the war against Iran.  Technically I don’t think that is true.  All I see happening is that it is inserting periodic tactical pauses from strong kinetic force.  Iran has won by not giving up but the US has lost nothing whatsoever.  Risk of global financial problems is probably no greater than it would be without the whole Iran ball of wax

Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 29 2026 18:03 utc | 31

Posted by: Unsafe Data | Jun 29 2026 16:55 utc | 11
 
Folks need to stop listening/re-posting any “public” announcements regarding the release/no-release of frozen assets of Iran. 
 
It is all for public consumption and should be ignored as irrelevant fake-news.   It was determined along time ago, anything stated in public concerning agreements between Iran and the child killers Americans, doesn’t matter the source, Trumps mouth, etc.  is pure deception. 
 
Commentators would be argueing over “nothing” in essence. 
 

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Jun 29 2026 18:06 utc | 32

scc | Jun 29 2026 17:18 utc | 24
 
Yes, one thing losers do is kick the can down the road in the hope that something will change the situation for the better. We’ve seen this in Ukraine already, now with Iran, and something rather similar with Taiwan. One thing the Trump Gang and their minders can’t control is economic reality–they cannot increase diesel and aviation fuel inventories via social media or FOX News rants, or provide helium or sulfur elements that many supply chains require. And then there’s the fertilizer situation. The hubristic sense that the Outlaw US Empire is invulnerable to resource deprivation is 100% wrong but needs to be proven the hard way.   

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 18:08 utc | 33

The best thing to do would be to lock Trump up somewhere because he has the authority to legitimise Netanyahu’s wheezes if he’s  around, and he can’t resist Nutter’s wheezes.
 
He should put out a message that he is concentrating on solving the oil crisis, and will see  nobody until the crisis starts to be resolved.
 
Even if he went to see President Putin about Ukraine, it would be more useful than listening  to the  Netanyahu Siren.
” Just one last push Donald and you will get all Iran’s oil, keep the petrodollar , get a personal share in Greater Israel and be a golden legacy Hero in the US”
 
He’s  like an old musical instrument waiting to be played. Poor man.
Strap yourself to the mast. Plug your ears.
The Delphic oracle that told Oedipus not to  uncork the  bottle until  he got home, would now say,  ZIP IT, snd if you can’t zip it, HIDE.
 

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 29 2026 18:11 utc | 34

now, it’s on
 
see the 1:52 video at the second/third link
 
 
 
https://t.me/Middle_East_Spectator/33989#
Middle East Spectator — MES 
 
— 🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇶🇦 NEW: Iran’s MFA Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei, confirms that Iranian technical teams will travel to Doha tomorrow to follow up on the implementation of the MoU 
 
The Iranian delegation will not hold direct talks with the Americans, despite Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner also arriving in Doha on the same day.
 
—————————
 
https://x.com/FranceskAlbs/status/2071496183583744267
Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur oPt  @FranceskAlbs 
 
URGENT! For any country where (from Italy to Thailand or Brazil) possible war criminals go on holiday and R&R. 🇮🇱 soldiers must be investigated, evidence assessed, and responsibility determined through DUE PROCESS. 
 
This is not incitement to commit violence. It is accountability.
 
 
https://x.com/ricwe123/status/2070757479512727726
Richard  @ricwe123 
 
“Anyone who has served in the Israeli Forces in Gaza since October 2023 should be considered a suspect in relation to war crimes, crimes against humanity, and the crime of genocide” 
– Chris Sidoti, UN Commission of Inquiry on Palestine
 

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 18:12 utc | 35

There’s now a new theory, apparently more-or-less proven that the reason why oil price has dropped is because China has been spending its inventory of oil but refusing to buy all available oil. So demand has dropped. China knows it is in control of oil demand and is waiting for oil to drop to around $50 before they start buying. So theoretically the price could still bounce later on, it could be bouncing between $65-80 on average over medium term.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2026 18:13 utc | 36

It seems to me that the only explanation for current Iranian inaction is that they have been threatened with nuclear destruction (which won’t happen till after the midterms of course, regardless of what was said) if they take certain actions.  

Posted by: Snowleopard | Jun 29 2026 18:13 utc | 37

@  karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 16:55 utc | 12 Time to bring in Wag The Dog Dustin Hoffman, eh? He is Jewish….and from the right families.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 17:00 utc | 16

Are you referring to Michael Hudson? One thing I am curious about him concerns his godfathering by Trotsky.
What is godfathering all about for atheistic jews?

Posted by: tucenz | Jun 29 2026 18:15 utc | 38

Reshaping of the conflict maybe…

Journalist Suhaib Al-Masalma

“Israeli Minister of War

An Israeli war with Iran is expected at any moment, and we are preparing for a large military operation.

We are preparing for a “Blue and White” military operation in Iran without American assistance.”

…though without US assistance I doubt, just not so visible until needed, or until joining in.

Not sure exactly what US is demanding of Iran at present regarding its own threats to resume major conflict, I guess that is supposed to be in relation to Hormuz, but considering the severity mentioned a slightly better explanation is both absent and due.

Posted by: Ornot | Jun 29 2026 18:17 utc | 39

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 29 2026 17:54 utc | 29
 
The projected shortage of diesel and jet fuel seem to be the real concern based on many articles posted here. When a refinery cracks a barrel they get more of those fuels from the heavy sour side. Less diesel and jet fuel is produced if light crude is used. Those same articles point out that middle eastern heavy sour is generally mixed with lighter oils so the refinery gets optimal outputs.
 
 
Maybe the refineries are processing more barrels of light crude. The ratio of gasoline to diesel will be higher using light crude, so there is a potential glut of gasoline as the refineries try to support the diesel demand. Gasoline prices come down while diesel prices continue to rise do to the new output mix.

Posted by: misplaced citizen | Jun 29 2026 18:18 utc | 40

Dan of Steele 11
Maybe you are Trump, or socking for Trump.
If you want to get to work,  camp out in the Company Plant Room.
If you want to go on holiday, go half a mile outside the city and buy a takeaway.
Sell your old car before it becomes worthless. 
There will be no fuel.
 

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 29 2026 18:22 utc | 41

@37 Snowleopard

‘Threatened with nuclear destruction after the midterms’

Dark comedy much

Posted by: Ornot | Jun 29 2026 18:23 utc | 42

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2026 18:13 utc | 36
 
 One oil analyst I watched said China was selling floating oil it had and that was why their reserves were not falling. He said that he didn’t know why but China is always ahead of the curve.

Posted by: arby | Jun 29 2026 18:24 utc | 43

tucenz 38
 
Don’t ask.

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 29 2026 18:25 utc | 44

Reportedly the US oil storage in Cushing keeps falling. It’s now said to be in a level where pumps are struggling to operate.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 29 2026 18:29 utc | 45

tucenz 38 Don’t ask.
Posted by: Giyane | Jun 29 2026 18:25 utc | 44

 
I did ask and you didn’t answer!

Posted by: tucenz | Jun 29 2026 18:29 utc | 46

tucenz | Jun 29 2026 18:15 utc | 38
 
Hudson relates how he became Trotsky’s grandson in this bio that was initially published at his site in 2018 and reproduced here. I’ve read it several times and suggested others do so to understand Hudson’s roots, which are fascinating. Religion has nothing to do with it; rather, political activism does bigly as you’ll discover.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 18:36 utc | 47

“From time to time, enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups do infiltrate areas under our control – sometimes even wearing our military uniforms.” RT
This sounds very 1945 “Battle of the Bulge”.IWM
 
 
 

Posted by: The Far Side | Jun 29 2026 18:45 utc | 48

The pressure on Iran to acquise and sell out their country for cheap promises and false claims of acceptance into the “West” is the same pressure that is currently being applied to Russia.
Lets see who folds first… 

Posted by: Skeletor | Jun 29 2026 18:48 utc | 49

unimperator | Jun 29 2026 18:29 utc | 45
 
There’re four main storage sites for the SPR and they don’t all hold the same sort of oil. The key type is heavy sour that’s used to make diesel and aviation fuel, and it’s the lowest amount in the SPR. I continue to refer people to the excellent article Larry Johnson wrote on this topic. Here’s one of the money quotes:
 

Operational estimate: applying a 45%-60% practical deliverability factor to total distillate stocks leaves roughly 48-64 million barrels of usable, allocable diesel-equivalent supply. At 3.631 million b/d, that is approximately 13.1-17.5 days, rounded to 13-18 days.

 
And it takes time to rebuild inventories, which is an impossible task when the desired type of oil isn’t being delivered at all. Here’s another:
 

 Persian Gulf sour crude — even though only 8% of US imports — supplied roughly 17% of the medium-sour grades that US complex refiners prefer for middle distillate production. That quality gap is not easily filled by Canadian heavy or domestic light sweet crude without refinery adjustment. Diesel output drops or becomes more expensive per barrel just as the buffer needs defending.

 
So, who is really under pressure? Diesel runs the Empire’s economy, not gasoline. There is one remedy, although I don’t know the amount it might provide–Convert the entire US soybean crop to biodiesel, and you can add in peanuts too since Dr. Diesel designed his engine to run on peanut oil.  

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 18:54 utc | 50

Giyane | Jun 29 2026 18:22 utc | 41
I truly do not follow your thoughts.  I merely said that the US had not yet achieved its objectives (or those of the tail should we actually be the dog).  I was not referring to any potential financial catastrophe looming before us

Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 29 2026 19:04 utc | 51

@36
 
To help China US is averaging about a million barrels a day ess imported crude, covered by release from SPR.
 
IIRC China has far more reserves than US, who took 170 million barrels out of SPR to cover Russian sanctions.
 
That said; I disagree with the Larry Johnson forecast US is13 days from diesel crunch.  US diesel inventory on hand is identical to one year ago.

Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2026 19:07 utc | 52

 
https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/2071618866480849287
Middle East Observer  @ME_Observer_ 
 
This deal basically turns the Lebanese Army into a private militia for Israeli officers
 
————————-
 
https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2071619952595898799
MenchOsint  @MenchOsint 
 
Qatar has welcomed over 20 US Air Force tankers in the past weeks, eager to get involved in the next hostilities.
 
———————-
 
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/joint-iran-oman-committee-discusses-strait-of-hormuz-coordin
Joint Iran-Oman committee discusses Strait of Hormuz coordination 
 
Iran and Oman hold their first meeting of the joint Strait of Hormuz committee to discuss future management, maritime coordination, and navigational security. 
 
….According to Gharibabadi, the discussions emphasized a governance framework that duly considers the rights and interests of all littoral states bordering the strategic waterway, within the framework of Article 5 of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding……
 

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 19:08 utc | 53

Wrt petrol prices in Oz… yeah it is crazy, now down to less than $1.50/litre. It is a big part of the game they are playing and I guess because we are very small the manipulation is relatively easy.
 
Middle management would easily justify it to themselves via “omg it is wartime” logic ie “the enemy wants this price up so we will not give them what they want”. The problem is then that the public is making decisions during wartime while being deliberately misled… (that and any future crash to reality will be a longer fall)

Posted by: Rae | Jun 29 2026 19:14 utc | 54

 – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says $6bn of the $12bn of its frozen funds held by Qatar will be released and returned to the country……
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 17:08 utc | 21
 
 
……………………………like, soon. Real soon. As soon as………., trust me, bro!

Posted by: Suresh | Jun 29 2026 19:15 utc | 55

CP: The Lebanon-Israel MOU, Al Qaeda in Syria Poised to Intervene in Lebanon? (& vid)
 
https://substack.com/home/post/p-204093177
 
“Fiorella Isabel & Vanessa Beeley sit down for another episode of Critical Perspectives to discuss the growing threat from Al Qaeda and Jolani on the Lebanese-Syrian borders. The region is at boiling point…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 29 2026 19:21 utc | 56

Right now (11:20 PM Omani time)) on MarineTraffic site I see another two convoys in the Omani corridor –
3 inwards : Bahrain Prosperity, Mombasa B, Argentina B
4 Outwards : DAS, UMM Al Ashtan, Zixuan, Al Maqam
Will Iran act to stop them ?

Posted by: Kapyong | Jun 29 2026 19:21 utc | 57

ThanksThe political establishment of Iran is providing a negotiating backstop for the team and for the world to know they are together at the core of their expectations. 
I am reading that Iran has not accepted the proposed negotiations tomorrow even though the zionist real estate twins are reportedly on their way.
 
Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 16:27 utc | 6
 
 
4 hours later I respond.  I only take in so much of keeping up with things.  With so much disinformation and partial reports, most likely due to everyone else also trying to wade through so much junk,  the following pattern repeats with regards to Russia, and now with Iran.
 
The US and Europe and Ukraine and Israel come out with their breathless narratives about their successes, often intentionally lying about events that just happened.  Then, people, including me, still act as if there might somehow THIS TIME be a little truth to it.  Then Russia or Iran or whoever finally give their report, which gets much less attention, and is either completely true or mostly true.  Reality eventually wins out.
 
Two comments from this thread that I think accurately summarize very well the way things are going.  Post 5 made me laugh (thanks for that !).
 
@Woke American – it’s like in that movie Blazing Saddles, where the black guy holds a gun to his own head, and holds himself hostage!
 
 
Posted by: Featherless | Jun 29 2026 16:24 utc | 5
 
The US also is holding Europe hostage as well.  Israel is holding itself hostage.  Major missile barrages could cause severe damage to Europe (by Russia) and to Israel (by Iran).  It would not surprise me if Russia and Iran coordinated attack start times.
 
Alas the dominant position of the BRICs is to avoid direct conflict with America.  China and Russia have made this perfectly clear for several ears now.  How much longer can the BRICs afford to “kick the can down the road”?
 
 
Posted by: EoinW | Jun 29 2026 17:03 utc | 17
 
This post has a lot more good stuff.  The resolution of this conflict is far from decided.  As spectators, we have to be as patient as the nations trying to navigate very choppy waters.

Posted by: Woke American | Jun 29 2026 19:26 utc | 58

@ tucenz | Jun 29 2026 18:15 utc | 38 with the ignorance about my Wag The Dog and Dustin Hoffman call out
 
Wag The Dog was a movie with Dustin Hoffman staring as a Hollywood producer brought in to distract the public from some sort of scandal which he does effectively and then is offed at the end so no witnesses of his contributed perfidy……a good movie that clearly depicts what we are seeing now.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 19:28 utc | 59

I’m just gonna play Time Is on My Side in Farsi over here on the juke box.   This little disruption with Iran is an unfortunate hiccup, oops.  B over here lecturing the inventors of bureaucracy about the ills of slow walking a siege

Posted by: Scottindallas | Jun 29 2026 19:33 utc | 60

@51  Karlof1
 
Light crude yields distillates, in fact very heavy crude may yield less per raw barrel, without “expensive refining”.  Heavy crude does yield much more asphalt!
 
DWSourerBarrelPetRevAprr07.pdf  
 
The problem with diesel and kerosene is that a barrel yields considerably less than light-end distillated like gasoline.  The good thing is macro demand for diesel is declining as NG does more electricity.
 
One reason heavy crude is still n demand is that there are a significant percent of US gulf refineries that make money distilling heavy crude and do not want to invest in shifting to light crude process.

Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2026 19:34 utc | 61

The last I heard the US is actually exporting quite a bit of condensate. This is useful for gasoline but useless for diesel. As misplaced citizen @40 pointed out, the net volume of hydrocarbons might be adequate for the time being but the mix is wrong, resulting in a glut of gasoline while inventories of heavier fuels are drawn down. 

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2026 19:36 utc | 62

tucenz | Jun 29 2026 18:15 utc | 38—
 
Hudson relates how he became Trotsky’s grandson in this bio that was initially published at his site in 2018 and reproduced here. I’ve read it several times and suggested others do so to understand Hudson’s roots, which are fascinating. Religion has nothing to do with it; rather, political activism does bigly as you’ll discover.
 
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 18:36 utc | 47
Key point and another good reason to get acquainted with the writings of the “Old Man”.  Without that early influence, I dare say, Hudson would not be Hudson.  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 29 2026 19:36 utc | 63

Same thing as I said about Pootin. Do something or get off the potty.

Posted by: Surferket | Jun 29 2026 19:42 utc | 64

In Gaza the bombing of tents and displaced

https://t.me/youseffares19/121717

One of several killed/martyred

https://t.me/youseffares19/121714

Posted by: Ornot | Jun 29 2026 19:51 utc | 65

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 18:54 utc | 51
 
Some years ago a sceptic estimated that if all of the UK’s arable land were converted to biofuel production it might just provide enough to keep Heathrow Airport running (and nothing else).
#nottheanswer

Posted by: ChatNPC | Jun 29 2026 19:51 utc | 66

dan of steel  52
 
The US counts West Asia as its own, and it no longer exists.
The US has lost its military status in the Gulf.
The US has lost its reputation,  as the genocide information unfolds.
The US has lost its 30 year war against Russia. 
The US has lost Europe
The US has lost Taiwan.
The US McCarthyism madness is fully exposed , shooting Sailors in the Caribbean, and threatening Cuba.
The US has lost South America through ICE and through Israel buying up Patagonia.
 
After losing all of those things, it is struggling to admit that it lost militarily to Muslms with the modern equivalent of Bows and Arrows.
 
All that it has left is AI, claiming unproveable  military wins with no evidence.
 
Trump, like Biden before him, is stuck in a superpower mentality, which now looks weird and senile. It’s time for the US to recognise that Russia , China and Iran are its military equals. And that it will receive generous concessions from them if it stops killing innocent people immediately.
 
If the US carries on bribing and threatening  people like Aoun to surrender their citizens and countries, the transition to multipolarity will be extremely painful for the US.
 
 Netanyahu has forgotten that Israel’s water, electricity , skyscrapers and  basement miltary offices , airports can all be struck by Iran and its allies, if Israel, the US puppet doent surrender.
 
Clint Eastwood with a Muslim amamah on his head instead of a cowboy hat, is going to take out the USUKIS villains in the next scene. 
Pan pipes. The End. 
 

Posted by: Giyane | Jun 29 2026 19:53 utc | 67

“– Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says $6bn of the $12bn of its frozen funds held by Qatar will be released and returned to the country……”

I don’t think he’s stupid at all. Just lying to drag another day. Qatar is totally under US thumb just like Oman who caved under US threats about joint toll on Hormuz. US will never let any money back unless they get their wanted unconditional surrender.

Posted by: Surferket | Jun 29 2026 19:55 utc | 68

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 29 2026 17:54 utc | 29
 
You have to add back on the 50% fuel excise cut. That adds about 25c/L. So back to early Feb prices on average.

Posted by: Patroklos | Jun 29 2026 19:58 utc | 69

meanwhile, back at The Ranches
 
see the 31-second video at the first link
 
see the 40-second video at the second link
 
 
 
https://x.com/DaniMayakovski/status/2071576379137667269
Daniel Mayakovski  @DaniMayakovski  Translated from Spanish 
 
These are not images of Hiroshima from the last century; this is southern Lebanon, where the genocidal army of “Israel” is making entire towns disappear, filling them with explosives and blowing them sky-high. 
 
There is no media scandal in the press; “Israel” can destroy entire towns and they don’t even make it news.
 
———————————–
 
https://x.com/martinez_j7902/status/2071087393575252085
Irlandarra  @martinez_j7902 
 
“My young son, 7, is under the rubble. My 15-year-old daughter is still under the rubble. My whole family is gone. What have they done to you, Netanyahu?”  
 
Palestinian father sobs with pain as he describes the bitterness of displacement.
 

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 20:14 utc | 70

paddy | Jun 29 2026 19:34 utc | 62
 
EIA reported data has a lag-time of 1-2 weeks. This report is based on early June data and says:
 

Distillate stockpiles USOILD=ECI, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 200,000 barrels in the week to 102.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 488,000 barrel drop, the EIA data showed.

 
It also says this, which is very important:
 

Refinery crude runs USOICR=ECI rose by 81,000 barrels per day in the week, the EIA said, while utilization rates USOIRU=ECI rose by 0.6 percentage points to 95.3 per cent.
 
“We saw a significant drop in exports, that refinery run rate is pressing on the crude inventories here, it does not get much higher than that, you do not see that often,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

 
EIA data can be seen here. Do note the last graph that shows the amounts of jet fuel and distillates and their Y/Y change, both of which are negative.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 20:23 utc | 71

ChatNPC | Jun 29 2026 19:51 utc | 67
 
I seem to recall something similar that was posted in an article at The Oil Drum blog back in the oughts regarding US biofuel potential. It’s enough for some uses but as I recall biodiesel cannot be refined into Jet fuel. It should also be mentioned that “Diesel fuel comes in grades (#1, #2, #4) and types (Biodiesel, Renewable, Premium, ULSD), differing in cetane rating, volatility, viscosity, and sulfur content,” all of which complicate things for refiners.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 20:33 utc | 72

Zionist vermin uses the distractions like the recent exchanges strikes between Iran and the US, the totally rigged soccer worldcup (bread and circuses for the idiotic masses) and other insignificant events, to continue their plan of aggression, genocide and expansion.

This is the latest from the ongoing genocides in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon from Iranian media (and we note Iran’s media silence about the red line of “israel” occupying Lebanon):

Child among 3 killed after zionist vermin bombs tent in central Gaza
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/29/771319/Palestine-Gaza-Deir-al-Balah-Israel-

“israel” killing Palestinian children in West Bank at highest rate since 1967: Report
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/06/29/771310/Palestine-Israel-West-Bank-Gaza-

Qatar condemns Israeli incursions in Syria
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/245728/Qatar-condemns-Israeli-incursions-in-Syria

So now that millions of morons are glued to their TV screens watching a rigged spectacle posing as ‘sport’, the zionist vermin is advancing its ‘greater “israel” agenda.

With US and western help of course.

Posted by: Destinus | Jun 29 2026 20:34 utc | 73

Karl, 
 
My friend, I study the EIA weekly petroleum balance sheet every week.  I believe it is the source of your link.  I began studying it during Covid, I did a bit of bottom feeding in ETF and an oil service stock.  I am out now, will bottom feed when Trump shutters the economy and drives NYMEX to $20.
 
I am a lot less worried on supply and refinery throughput, Larry J is projecting some catastrophe, I won’t discount but I think less probable.
 
Many years ago, I had a job where I got to manage working capital over retail inventory.  It is an amazing business crystal ball and all.  Events happen that sometimes you buy slow inventory and sales don’t fund keeping even stock buys.
 
The effects of not buying routine stock almost always hurt!
Delayed buying crude is like delaying laying in supplies.  It will be a long bumpy road, and Trump is way too late.

Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2026 20:45 utc | 74

@73
 
Bio diesel…. I feel like Forrest Gump.  About 2010 I was asked if I thought a client could use bio diesel or some mix for electric generation, large tank stores.
 
One issue I recall is being organic, the chance of yeast like micro bugs would cause significant need for filtering, as well as clogging replacing filters often…
 
I guess it can be accommodated.  

Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2026 20:53 utc | 75

Posted by: EoinW | Jun 29 2026 17:03 utc | 17
 
“…but we need to take care not to just give blind support.”
 
Random postings on this blog do not amount to ACTUAL support (whether “blind” or “critical”) for any of the countries currently in the crosshairs of the hegemon.
 
Lebanon is an artificial entity whose citizens are powerless to overthrow their “government” which has sold them out to the hegemon. That country has as much right to exist as Israel does – none whatsoever. Iran tying their fate to Lebanon (or the non-existent state of Palestine) would seem to be counterproductive to “all-out war” against the hegemon, but I cannot claim to understand their principles or reasoning. I simply respect their free will as human beings.
 
Similarly, I can only speculate that China and Russia are figuring out how to navigate the demise of the hegemon. The financialization it has spread among the world has the ability to yet cripple many countries if it collapses too suddenly. Mechanisms should be in place to compensate for this inevitable decline but it takes more time to build those than it does to keep typing “why aren’t China and Russia just starting more fires by militarily attacking hegemonic forces in proxy countries?”

Posted by: altruisticpunisher | Jun 29 2026 20:56 utc | 76

Posted by: Snowleopard | Jun 29 2026 18:13 utc | 37 ….. It seems to me that the only explanation for current Iranian inaction is that they have been threatened with nuclear destruction (which won’t happen till after the midterms of course, regardless of what was said) if they take certain actions…….
 
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 17:08 utc | 21 …..– Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says $6bn of the $12bn of its frozen funds held by Qatar will be released and returned to the country.
 
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 18:12 utc | 35<= it looks to me like Pezeshkian is not in touch with most of Iran,— 🇮🇷/🇺🇸/🇶🇦 NEW: Iran’s MFA Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei, confirms that Iranian technical teams will travel to Doha tomorrow to follow up on the implementation of the MoU.  
 
<=There is possible other explanation than nuclear blackmail. China is defending the sovereignty of Iran and does not want Iran to engage in more fisty cuffs.. defending BRI also might explain why China is pushing oil prices low.. Internally, China’s industries are non competitive at higher oil prices.

Posted by: snake | Jun 29 2026 21:01 utc | 77

Posted by: Destinus | Jun 29 2026 20:34 utc | 74
 
Pls. stop defending promoting Qatar as if they have any morals on all of these. It’s groundless and innacurate.

Posted by: pepe | Jun 29 2026 21:03 utc | 78

@31 Dan of Steel.
America has lost its dominant position in the Gulf. Those bases are not coming back, it’s proxy is a pariah and Iran still has the final say on Straits shipping. Yes a few boats get through with enormous US effort but it won’t change the outcome . 11m/BPD less is going to hurt the West.
 
Moreover the Hebrew press are , according to Crooke, saying their position as dominant power is over and Iran has changed permanently the power balance of  West Asia. Would you buy a condo in Dubai now ??
 
Way to go Trump, he outperformed my expectations of trashing the Empire. 
 
JB

Posted by: Judge Barbier | Jun 29 2026 21:06 utc | 79

 karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 18:36 utc | 47
I’d like to thank you again for your many insightful posts, but particularly for the link to the Michael Hudson autobiographical sketch. Fascinating! I had no idea… I have most of his major works, or at least those that most interest me and will now begin reading them. I am not an economist, but on my own I’ve stated in comments here and there that finance capital is destroying the West and will prove to be its undoing, much to the benefit of the rest of the world, save its hideous genocidal ally and the enablers/accomplices of same. Thanks again for all the good work you do and thanks to Mr. B for this excellent blog and the fine comment section with its worthy contributors!

Posted by: Montefrío | Jun 29 2026 21:22 utc | 80

Posted by: paddy | Jun 29 2026 20:53 utc | 76
 
Interesting anecdote; thanks for sharing.
 
There are several types of fuels often loosely grouped under the label “biodiesel,” even though they differ from one another.
 
However, one thing is certain: regardless of the type, the development of life within them is highly unlikely.
 
Most inadequately processed biodiesels contain unstable unsaturated, oxygenated, nitrogenated, and sulfur-containing compounds. Over time, these compounds form new solid substances that ideally should be filtered out.
 
They also perform poorly in cold temperatures, becoming heavy and viscous—almost wax-like. Even without impurities, they can congeal in fuel lines and, more importantly, clog filters.
 
The “cloud point,” “cold filter plugging point,” and “pour point” are cold-weather characteristics used to define these fuel, whether bio-based or conventional, and determine their suitability for use in internal combustion engines.
 
Otherwise, they are used for only heating purposes.

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 21:26 utc | 81

Giyane | Jun 29 2026 19:53 utc | 68
“Buying up Patagonia”.
Not yet they’re not. The changes in the law have yet to be decided upon by the legislators and there’s a fair chance they won’t be voted into law. One can hope!

Posted by: Montefrío | Jun 29 2026 21:27 utc | 82

Dan of Steele @ 31:
 
There was a report in The Wall Street Journal in the last couple of weeks that the cost of reconstruction at one US military base (in Bahrain, I think) will be US$400 million, not counting the clean-up that has to be done there. The Pentagon is considering abandoning that base and dispersing the soldiers there to other bases. I understand the base in Bahrain is (was) the headquarters for the US 5th Fleet.
 
Abandoning this and possibly other bases in the Gulf region means that any future wars the US fights against Iran will have to be conducted from farther away, in Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, or in international waters in the Arabian Sea. Among other things, this means US planes having to stay longer in the air, perhaps requiring more refuelling and/or more support from aircraft carriers and their flotillas in the Arabian and Mediterranean Seas. The logistics-related costs of these future wars will be a huge financial drain, to say nothing of the costs of aircraft destroyed by Iranian forces and of US missiles wasted on hitting paintings of Iranian planes on the ground.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Jun 29 2026 21:29 utc | 83

Reza Pahlavi: ‘The Attack On Iran Was The Result Of My Visit To Israel Two Years Ago’ (& vid)
 
https://x.com/timand2037/status/2071463226869715241
 
“This entitled creature admits his collaboration with Israeli terrorism against the Iranian people. No wonder they hate him.”
 
Just another evil USraeli arselicker & toady in waiting.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 29 2026 21:42 utc | 84

“Netanyahu has forgotten that Israel’s water, electricity , skyscrapers and basement miltary offices , airports can all be struck by Iran and its allies, if Israel, the US puppet doesn’t surrender.” ~ Giyane | Jun 29 2026 19:53 utc | 68____
 
Israel, aside from being a manufactured State and Middle East squatter, is a glorified US military base. (of its Military Industrial Complex.)
The two have an obvious symbiosis.
 
Gazafying Israel will likely make the lion’s share of Iran’s troubles and, by extension, the Middle East’s troubles, go away.
 
To Iran about the Memorandum of Understanding:
Fool me once, shame on you.Fool me twice, shame on me.Fool me three times, I’m a fool.
 
But perhaps Iran is playing the long game– a chess move long after the more immediately-subsequent ones– and setting things up.

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jun 29 2026 22:02 utc | 85

To understand the behavior of the US administration and its “mini-me,” Israel, one must look at the bigger picture.
 
They launched a war to crush Iran and lost. But clearly, either they never considered the possibility of failure, or they misjudged the consequences of that failure.
 
They must abandon their bases in the region, including the headquarters of the 5th Fleet.
They must make painful concessions for Israel’s survival.
They must abandon their Arab allies, thus also relinquishing the advantages they derive from their security racket.
 
Of course, they want to avoid this scenario, despite having signed a memorandum to that effect.
 
They believe that finding and using “leverage” against Iran will force them to concede, if not what they wanted when they launched their war, at least a return to the previous status quo.
 
This would allow them to hope for at least a rematch in a few years if conditions improve. 
As with Russia, they know they’ve lost but want to maintain a “let’s fight another day” mentality.
 
Everything they’re developing should be seen as their means of exerting pressure on Iran.
 
Occupying Lebanon, occupying more Palestinian territories, freezing Iranian assets, contesting sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to reignite kinetic warfare, expanding the conflict, etc…
 
They hope Iran will give them “something” so they can stop this harassment—which they know, however, is unsustainable in the long run.
But none of this is likely to make Iran back down. Because they also know all this is unsustainable in the long run for US-Israel.
 
However, two of these points could cause it to lose some of its support, which constitutes significant psychological pressure.
 
It’s the absurd idea that Iran should confront the Lebanese state and replace it in order to expel the Israeli army.
It’s also the unrealistic idea that Iran should just go and anyhow liberate the occupied Palestinian territories.
 
And this is where MoA’s commentary is disappointing, because it becomes an objective ally of the aggressors by campaigning on these points, with the eternal “why isn’t Iran doing anything about this or that…”
 
The hegemon and its allies have no other options left than scheming, psy-ops, manipulation, and other fake news.
Iran has nothing special to do but continue defending itself and the points of the memorandum in order to win.
 
The US-Israeli duo has no other hope than the psychological pressure exerted by Iran’s supporters on its leaders.
 
What if we stopped helping them?

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 22:19 utc | 86

It’s quite amusing watching online political analysts on all spectrums trying to put their fingers on who’s got who, pants down, sabotage, most of us sponge it up.  But one consistency of the ‘conditioning’ it seems, is that the US/Israel (child killers) always “control” the narrative, and call the shots, no matter how the illusive image is reflected. 
 
God forbid, the universe would never allow the opposing side, for instance, Iran (persians) to outsmart the Yankees or Isis.  It would be a proposturus notion to even instill into peoples minds. 
 
All part of the cognitive conditioning… 

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Jun 29 2026 22:24 utc | 87

Trusting USA was the downfall of native Americans, Soviet Union, Iran, Palestinians, Pakistan, Russia, etc.
 
The cursed Anchorage hemorrhage still continues.

Posted by: Jason | Jun 29 2026 22:25 utc | 88

@ Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 22:19 utc | 87:
____
 
In largely, Zionist-owned, or at least Jewish-owned Hollywood film, the usual plot goes where the bad guy does all kind of bad things and the audience– us– are increasingly impatient for vengeance to come his way and feel a sense of satisfaction when it finally does.
 
Zion doesn’t appear to be following its own filmic prescription, but I wonder if Iran is looking at the story that way or not– that long game I was telling you about.

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jun 29 2026 22:30 utc | 89

More lies from the US
Iran denies US talks, focuses on frozen assets file in Doha
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-denies-us-talks–focuses-on-frozen-assets-file-in-doha
No request for talks with the Yanks

Posted by: Monty | Jun 29 2026 22:36 utc | 90

Posted by: Jason | Jun 29 2026 22:25 utc | 89
 
I must respectfully disagree with your analysis.
 
Those who were massacred and/ or enslaved did not meet their fate because of misplaced trust.
 
They were massacred by brute force and a superiority in numbers and weaponry.
 
It is all too easy to rewrite history by implying that they failed to resist and were led to the slaughter like sheep.
 
There is also a significant difference between the cases you are conflating.
 
Russia and Iran possess the means to defend themselves—and do so.
 
However, since they do not share the mindset of the wild beasts they are confronting, who conceive of nothing but endless war, they have tried, and will continue to try, to make peace whenever possible.
 
This is neither naivety nor weakness; it is simply humanity.
Those who desire endless war and destruction have evidently ceased to belong to that species.

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 22:39 utc | 91

Iran is doing just fine as is Russia.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | Jun 29 2026 22:56 utc | 92

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Jun 29 2026 22:30 utc | 90
 
I disagree with you.
 
I believe that Iran—like Russia, for that matter—is waging war in the way best suited to guarantee victory: *their* victory, as they define it themselves.
 
And I think many of us want to see them fight a different kind of war—one closer to Hollywood scenarios—that wouldn’t actually secure what they want, and might even lead straight to defeat.
 
It seems clear, for instance, that certain war objectives—ones that some people on MoA, for example, grow impatient about—are not part of our champions’ agenda. I could list:
 
*Attacking NATO;
*Making the capture of Odessa a priority;
*Spreading Shia Islam across the entire Middle East;
*Making the wiping of Israel off the map a priority;
*Attacking the US mainland;
*Replacing the US as a colonial occupying force;
 
Obviously, when we aren’t talking about the same kind of war or the same objectives, we can’t agree on how that war should be waged.
 
And that’s not even touching on the unrealistic nature of certain comments from people who think real war is a Hollywood movie and want to push for suicide missions simply because they want to “see some action.”
 
I don’t think wanting to chose the objectives, the way, and the timing (forever) of war is the best way to support Iran or Russia. Those who are doing the job are not stupid.
They have more informations than we can have, and above all, they are the ones “doing the dying”, chedding blood, losing people and wealth.
 
The least is to trust them when they say this or that way is the better for now.

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 23:01 utc | 93

“And then there’s the fertilizer situation. The hubristic sense that the Outlaw US Empire is invulnerable to resource deprivation is 100% wrong but needs to be proven the hard way.”
 
folks noticing the misdirected response of pontificators.
somewhat like taking the gamed numbers around oil speculation which are pointed at by the aggressors as indicates of no harm done.  Fistful of lies.  Most likely the interests of the aggressors are being stymied by measures keeping the price point  below the ideal range. Meanwhile, real damage to fertilizer resources (crucial for mechanized monoculture, presumably, more than organic small scale multiculture efforts, I suspect) is a goal, along with historic levels of famine, which will be gamed as much as any other resource. The ruling class has so little use for poor relatives (Bill Gates, Epstein problem solving) with the onset of robotics and AI, they need to dispose of as many as they can, without burning through their wealth needlessly or wasting time. Also, keeping an additional layer of distance from the oopsy, accidental starvation of a few billion humans who cannot receive shelter from enemy countries while hostilities occur.  Remaining resources will last much longer for the deserving survivors and overlords, who wont miss us in their techno futurist utopia.

Posted by: Not Ewe | Jun 29 2026 23:04 utc | 94

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 16:05 utc | 3
 
Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 29 2026 16:32 utc | 7
 
Didn’t read all the comments yet. Isn’t it obvious? The US is keeping Iran “busy” with “negotiations” and harassment while Israel attempts to finish off the proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Jun 29 2026 23:20 utc | 95

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 29 2026 18:36 utc | 47
That was a great link to the Hudson CV.  Thanks for the information.  Also for the earlier links to the Putin speeches.  One can see why the European and the American politicians are in a  panic.  The only game they know isn’t going to get played much longer. Tough on Ukraine as one of the boards they chose to play it on.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 29 2026 23:21 utc | 96

Or, y’know, the hardliners could be right that negotiation is impossible and the West merely uses it as delaying tactics to murder you more while you don’t fight back? I mean, it’s not like USUKrael is without a known history…

Posted by: titmouse | Jun 29 2026 23:24 utc | 97

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Jun 29 2026 23:20 utc | 96
 
If Israel could finish off Hezbollah that easily, everyone would know about it, and they certainly wouldn’t have waited until now.
 
For the record, they were driven out of Lebanon by that same Hezbollah—which was far less powerful back then than it is today.
 
And they are taking a beating, for which they retaliate by bombing civilians.

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 23:35 utc | 98

Posted by: titmouse | Jun 29 2026 23:24 utc | 98
 
I think is more sad than that.
 
I think murdering people to “put pressure” is the only way of negociation they are able to.

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 23:38 utc | 99

Posted by: titmouse | Jun 29 2026 23:24 utc | 98 
I think is more sad than that. 
I think murdering people to “put pressure” is the only way of negociation they are able to.
 
Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 23:38 utc | 100

 
Thanks, Sebgo. I think it is more demonic than that, as in real dynastic oligarchic families into some occult shit feeling this is how they “fuel their manifestations” upon the world. 🙂 But your thought is more forgiving of these monsters as tragic figures incapable of self-awareness. What a lovely notion that they “know not what they do” instead of gleefully sacrifice like bloodthirsty vampiric overlords.
 
🙂 Thanks for the reminder to hold loving space even for the most lost. I’ll just keep it a small space, and way the heck over there. But yeah, considering them pathetic neuters a lot of their desired fearful power.

Posted by: titmouse | Jun 29 2026 23:49 utc | 100