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Ukraine Isn’t Winning
There is an ongoing Ukrainian propaganda campaign to depict the country as winning the conflict with Russia.
The campaign is accompanied by drone attacks on energy targets within Russia. While burning fuel tanks at this or that of many Russian refineries may look impressive the effects on Russia have so fare been mere nuances. Ongoing drone attacks on Crimea have led to inconveniences for the inhabitants of the island.
The Ukrainian campaign is supported by the Europeans who are trying to pull the U.S. back into the conflict. The U.S. however had never left. After the meeting between President Trump and President Putin in August 2025 in Anchorage there was talk about an agreement between the two presidents but no announcement of any specifics.
After the meeting Trump had called for Ukraine to leave the Donbas area to make peace with Russia. But he never applied any pressure to achieve that outcome. Meanwhile U.S. intelligence and weapon support for Ukraine continued.
For a while Russia had seemed to believe in the ‘sprit of Anchorage’ and had expressed hope for an end on the conflict along Trump’s proposal. That view has long since gone away.
Now U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has officially dismissed any talk of an Anchorage agreement:
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump failed to secure any final agreements on Ukraine settlement at their meeting in Anchorage.
“There was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end to the war,” Rubio told journalists in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, in the course of his state visit.
Now Rubio’s underling even declares that Ukraine is winning:
Speaking ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk, US Deputy Secretary of State Jeremy Levin said the conflict has shifted in Kyiv’s favor, Mezha reported.
“As of now, we are in a position where Ukraine is winning the war at this moment” Levin said, adding that the situation on the battlefield has shifted in Kyiv’s favor, allowing Washington to speak about Ukraine’s success as a current reality instead of a distant goal.
Levin said that the conflict dynamics have reversed, with Ukrainian troops now advancing, while Russian forces are effectively waiting for winter. The shift in dynamics has been made possible by Ukraine’s ongoing strikes on critical oil infrastructure in Russia, essentially increasing the cost of the war for Moscow and forcing it to divert resources away from the front, he said.
The facts on the ground are contradicting the view of Mr. Levin. According to Ukrainian frontline news Russian troops are slowly but steadily gaining ground (machine translation):
Russian troops have occupied most of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region.
This was reported by a Ukrainian fighter with the call sign “Flour”.
According to him, Russian units are already using most of the city to accumulate personnel, drones and firepower.
Only certain microdistricts at the northwestern entrance to the city remain under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or in the gray zone. At the same time, the line of contact continues to change rapidly.
Another noticeable advance, according to the military, was recorded in the Sloviansk direction. Russian units have established control over Yurkovka and continue fighting for Rai-Oleksandrivka (the Russian Federation claims that this village has already been captured).
At the same time, pressure is increasing in the Mykolaivka area, where Russian troops are trying to disrupt Ukrainian logistics with strikes on supply routes through Vysokoivanivka and on facilities in the area of the Slavyansk thermal power plant.
In the Pokrovsky direction, Russian forces, according to Muchnoy, occupied the Zaporizhzhia mine and advanced along the forest belts north of it. The situation in Rodinskoye is also complicated, where the northern part of the city was actually isolated.
At the same time, it is noted that Russian units are trying to turn this area into a local “bag”, controlling supply and movement routes with the help of drones and firepower.
The Ukrainian army is in its ever worst position. Moral is terrible, losses are high and the recruitment methods are getting more and more brutal.
The Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Syrski has long insisted on creating new ‘assault’ brigades instead of filling up the shrinking regular brigades which attempt to hold grounds.
A recent investigation by the Ukrainian outlet Babel reveals murder and torture in the recruit training camps of the 425th Assault Regiment Skala (Rock) (machine translation):
A battered head, torn hands, a chiseled lower back, dirty and broken fingers. In this state, 35-year-old Oleksandr Semenov came to the hospital in Kropyvnytskyi in January 2026. He said that he escaped from the 425th separate assault regiment “Rock”, where he was abused, beaten, tied to an ATV and dragged on the ground. In a video taken by local doctors, the man said that he witnessed at least nine suicides in the unit, briefly described their circumstances and named one of the dead. The video at Babel’s disposal was filmed on January 23, 2026, and a few days later, Oleksandr Semenov died in the hospital. The official cause of death is pneumonia.
“The Rock” is the largest assault regiment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Unofficially, it is also called “Syrsky’s”. It is not part of any corps, but is directly subordinate to the high command. “The Rock” took part in the most difficult battles of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Despite this and combat merits, the regiment is often criticized by the military, journalists and relatives of those who got there. Due to accusations of heavy losses, the regiment has gained a reputation as “meat”. However, “The Rock” loses people not only on the battlefield, but even before combat — during military training – it counted 26 deaths.
…
The newly recruited soldiers, snatched from the streets, are living in guarded tents. Going to the toilet is only allowed in groups and under the eyes of an armed soldier. Grounds around the training camp are mined. Torture is routine. People who try to flee will be shot and/or get brutalized to death.
Strana reports that the “Rock” is far from the only such unit.
The mass death of Ukrainian soldiers due to torture while in training is probably what the State Department considers as ‘winning’.
Russia has meanwhile initiated a new campaign against Ukrainian transport infrastructure and logistics. Targets are locomotives, truck depots, large post office warehouses (which run Ukraine’s military logistics), oil storage facilities and petrol stations of which more than 150 have been destroyed so far.
The slow squeeze continues. Ukraine isn’t winning.
Ukraine isn’t winning, but neither is Russia, unfortunately (if the definition of victory is removing the post-Maidan Nazi–white washing Russophobic Kiev regime). This is making some people, such as the Russian SMO veteran Nikita Tretyakov, very frustrated:
The Unthinkable (Nikita Tretyakov, June 24, 2026 — in Russian)
Sergey Lavrov: “I don’t even want to suspect that Alaska, like the European actions, was conceived to buy time for the Kiev regime to re-arm itself. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.”
How can one disagree with Mr. Lavrov? There are many things that are difficult, that one would absolutely hate to think about, for example:
I don’t even want to suspect that instead of a carefully calculated and organized special operation, Russia could have been trapped in a trench warfare that lasted longer than World War I and the Great Patriotic War. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that every week, in a war started to protect the civilians of Donbass, hundreds of civilians could be killed and wounded tens and hundreds of kilometers from the front. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that warfare practices and the state of society could have deteriorated so much that only the desperate, the deluded, or those who had given up on themselves are willing to join the army, even for enormous sums of money. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that the enemy could have so outstripped our air defense system that they could strike strategic defense and industrial facilities deep in the rear with missiles and drones almost daily. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that in the fifth year of the war, a great energy power would be unable to protect its oil industry and would be forced to impose fuel rationing on the population. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that a country that once opened up space to the world will be unable to overcome its lag in communications and reconnaissance satellites. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that a country with advanced information and telecommunications technologies could launch a campaign to block the internet in the midst of a war, including for its own troops and military-industrial complex. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that Russia, with all its fleets, special forces, and marines, would be unable or unwilling to defend its tankers from enemy piracy. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that official representatives of our country could easily conduct business and hope for friendship with those who create and supply weapons that kill our fellow citizens. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that Russian businessmen and oligarchs could still be trading with the enemy and its allies, selling materials used to kill civilians. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that shortsightedness, complacency, and lack of will could have led to the erosion of all the successes and efforts in Syria, to the betrayal of those who trusted Russia and placed their hopes in it. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that fear of Washington could have driven Russia to betray the Cuban people and not come to their aid in their time of need. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that a commitment to negotiations with a global predator could have alienated potential allies from Africa, Latin America, and Asia, who were ready to see Russia as a hotbed of resistance to imperialism. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that yesterday’s terrorists from Afghanistan, committing barbarity in their own country, could be accepted and treated kindly in Russia. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that a strategic plan to counter NATO expansion could have led to Sweden and Finland joining the alliance and the establishment of NATO bases on the outskirts of St. Petersburg. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
I don’t even want to suspect that our country might have fallen into the deepest crisis since the end of the last century due to an inability to recognize the sheer gravity of the situation, due to a fear of activating emergency measures developed and prepared for an emergency. I don’t even want to think about it, but in reality, it turned out the way it did.
And what, dear friends, would you rather not think about, what would you rather not suspect?
Some of Tretyakov’s criticisms I agree with, others I don’t. I agree that the Russian military leadership is in dire need of a major reform. Without such a reform, Russia will certainly be able to liberate Donbass, but it won’t be able to remove the post-Maidan Kiev regime.
Posted by: S | Jun 26 2026 6:16 utc | 150
Yawwwwnnn… “Putin this, Putin that ” much of which is irrelevant, where it isn’t downright misinterpretation or even misinformation.
Waste of time trying to debunk any of it, since the same old, same old will just get recycled and warmed up like leftovers of soup.
You got nothing new, guys, and you know it.
Meanwhile, actual news actually from inside Ukraine, as tempers continue to fray:
In the Kirovohrad region, people’s patience has reached a point. In Gurovka, residents blocked the road, due to the fact that TCK workers take people from tractors and combines right during field work.
The work season is in full swing, the equipment is in the field, and the people who actually provide this harvest are simply taken away.
People claim that we are talking about forced mobilization right during work, tractor drivers, combine operators, those who literally keep agriculture afloat. And the only tool that can stop this arbitrariness is the blocking of roads and public protest.
This is an attempt to somehow delineate the boundaries: if the system takes advantage of its impunity, then the answer has to be given only physically.
In addition, the wave of incidents is growing: in Kharkiv, a man chose life instead of “death in the TCC”, and fought off cannibals. In the Khmelnytskyi region, a man opened fire from a machine gun on the building of the TCC. In Rivne, passers-by intervened and saved a man in a direct conflict with the TCC.
This is a signal that people are starting to act because they understand that the authorities leave them no other choice.
Therefore, people are right to resist and protect each other. There is no need to be afraid of these bandits, you need to stand up for a neighbor, acquaintance or passer-by, because next time he may be the only one who will be able to stand up for you.
https://t.me/ZE_kartel/13089 (via translation add-on.)
There’s a video at the link showing the protesters blocking a road crossing. Not the first time this form of protest has been seen, it’s also been used in protests over lack of electricity and delays in supply restoration.
As for press-ganging vital agricultural workers during harvesting of crops, that seems a desperate measure. Talk about eating your own seed corn, can’t even do that if the seed corn isn’t being collected.
Does the West want to create a famine in Ukraine?
“To the Last Ukrainian” is not universally acclaimed by everyone in that nation.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 26 2026 13:27 utc | 184
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