Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 28, 2026
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-136

Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:


Other issues:

Gaza:

Finance:

Schadenfreude:

China:

Others:

Use as open (not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran) thread …

Comments

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election
Let me make a point that I fail to see any pundit bringing up:  Much of the USA can easily become politically extremist or radical because voter turnouts are a joke.  
The NYC Mayoral race was enthusiastically celebrated as bringing in a much higher voter turnout ………of around 40%.   If Mamdani got about half of that, then around 20% of voters elected him. This is recipe for radicalism and dysfunction.  If the turnout had been in the 20’s, then around 10 % of voters would have favored him into victory.  And this applies to cities across the US.  Not just radicals can be elected, there will also be halfwits and wildly Incompetent folks elected as well.  Maybe they only need a small % of similar halfwits to grant them power.

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 28 2026 15:08 utc | 1

Re the Amwaj article on Iran prioritizing economic recovery and the discontent on that from the hardline military people: they do realize that Iran’s actual main liability is economic health and addressing popular discontent on jobs and prices, right? Iran has already shown it is unconquerable in a conventional fashion … the only hope the “west” has for regime change is that Iran’s people themselves get mobilized and hamstring the government. And what bothers 90% of the people is JOBS and INFLATION. 
 
This is why economic relief, derided as it is by the armchair warriors here sometimes, is the real path to Iranian national security. Besides, with a bigger healthier economy, you can afford more weapons too … so trade is the key and these fireworks in the Gulf for stupid reasons do not help.

Posted by: Caliman | Jun 28 2026 15:19 utc | 2

I watched a video that some Americans said made them feel proud.  OK.
It was people from other countries here for the World Cup, and their reaction to America.  
Yes, they gushed over how good the food was.   We have “food scientists” whose job it is to find out just what combo of fat, salt, and sugar appeals the most to human taste buds.   Yes, it looks like even people from Europe and Africa who are used to normal food react with great pleasure to food manufactured to taste.
And they were amazed at how much food they were served.  One guy from Africa said it was enough to feed an entire family.
And they were impressed by the wide streets we have.  The better to drive on, my dear, but it explains both the obesity in the US and the fact that the number one cause of death until age 44 is the car.   Go ahead and try to cross that big wide road on foot. 
And the air conditioning.  In Texas, an entire stadium was air conditioned.  The stores were downright chilly, according to an Englishman.
 
The only thing that I thought could be viewed as a source of pride is that they all were impressed with the friendliness of average Americans.
 
Other than that- I thought of the obesity thread from a couple of days ago.

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jun 28 2026 15:25 utc | 3

the number one cause of death until age 44 is the car

40,000 Killed every year and roughly 750,000 hospitalized too. But  its totally worth it ! 

Posted by: Exile | Jun 28 2026 15:33 utc | 4

After the fairly severe earthquakes in Caracas, I have been watching mass media from the US and there seems to be an extraordinary amount of coverage and the general slant seems to be that the Venezuelan government is unable to assist.  Then Trump offers 150 million in aid.  then I see US Army troops deployed to “assist”.  What a perfect opportunity to establish military posts smack dab in the middle of Caracas.  Kind of like the US embassy in Baghdad.
 
I guess I am probably just a cynical old man but something smells here.

Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 28 2026 15:40 utc | 5

If we harken back a couple months there was a speculative discussion about how Russia’s Burevestnik cruise missile worked. I speculated on it being a High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor, similar to a pebble-bed or prismatic block core reactor, and that it was directly cooled by the atmospheric air used for propulsion in a conventional turbojet arrangement. While there were other possibilities such as breeder reactors suggested, I argued against these as being too heavy, too bulky, too slow to start, too complex and too expensive. There was even some confusion expressed by a poster with a very high opinion of its own intellect that we were for some reason discussing rocket engines! Oh, the poor tragically confused poster… In any case, it appears that researchers from MIT have come to the same conclusion that I did:
 
Here’s how Russia’s nuclear-powered ‘Skyfall” missile works
 
This is actually not at all surprising as the size and operational characteristics of the missile significantly constrain the possible options for how it could be made to work, but it is useful to have the speculation about how Burevestnik works reinforced by deeper analysis from others with knowledge of the potential technology involved and who are not prone to mixing up rocket engines with jet engines. 

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 28 2026 15:44 utc | 6

thanks b for all the articles…
 
@ wagelaborer | Jun 28 2026 15:25 utc | 3
 
you might want to read the article b posted – What causes obesity? A major new study is upending common wisdom. (archived) – WaPo  – eating too much is part of the problem..
 
 

Posted by: james | Jun 28 2026 15:59 utc | 7

a pink silver horizon 
in a rococo frame 
an acacia tree 
destined to hot dry terrain 
grows deep roots and thorns 
anticipating summer storms 

Posted by: Upsidedowndingo | Jun 28 2026 16:06 utc | 8

(Repost) 
 
Interest cost of federal debt as percentage of federal revenues:
 
Actual
~2% 2019
~9% 2021
~18% 2024
~24% 2025 (3.3% int.)
My Estimate
~29% 2026 (3.6% int.)
~32% 2027 (3.9% int.)
 
If my estimates for 2026 and 2027 are correct, then the Federal Gov‘t will face some sort of insolvency crisis in  (early?) 2027.
 
Watch 10 year treasury interest rate: if stays above 4% then bond market agrees with my prediction of an insolvency crisis; if 10 year drops below 3% then I am wrong. TBD

Posted by: Exile | Jun 28 2026 16:47 utc | 9

Posted by: james | Jun 28 2026 15:59 utc | 7
 
To be  more precise the article says that  we not only eat too much but also eat too much of the wrong foods.
Which is a good summary of Friday’s thread…

Posted by: ChatNPC | Jun 28 2026 16:55 utc | 10

40,000 Killed every year and roughly 750,000 hospitalized too. But its totally worth it ! 
 
Posted by: Exile | Jun 28 2026 15:33 utc | 4
As a mode of transportation it’s as outdated as horse and carriage.  China is the model for future mass transportation.  Cheaper, cleaner, more efficient. 

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 28 2026 17:00 utc | 11

a pink silver horizon 
in a rococo frame 
an acacia tree 
destined to hot dry terrain 
grows deep roots and thorns 
anticipating summer storms 
 
Posted by: Upsidedowndingo | Jun 28 2026 16:06 utc | 8
Some Sunday poetry!  Keep at it.  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 28 2026 17:00 utc | 12

 guess I am probably just a cynical old man but something smells here.
 
Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 28 2026 15:40 utc | 5
 No.  You’re right.  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 28 2026 17:02 utc | 13

dan of steele | Jun 28 2026 15:40 utc | 5
 
Illegal US sanctions harmed the Venezuelan governments ability to aid victims as heavy equipment like excavators and such were banned from being sold, thus the proper rescue equipment wasn’t available. This chat reveals much. 

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2026 17:30 utc | 14

@12
One more time 
 
what has been lost?
dancing around in the mind 
the proverbial needle in the haystack 
with golden thread 
wrapping the pain and shame 
like an egyptian mummy 
step outside find some honey 

Posted by: Upsidedowndingo | Jun 28 2026 17:42 utc | 15

a fact of matter
I
is all I know
dot in time
is more.

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 28 2026 17:52 utc | 16

Speaking of leaks
 
seems that following the substack breach, big serge was about to get doxxed and had to come out.
 
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/to-my-readers
 
hope everything ends up well for him, he didn’t write often but well worth reading (I almost feel bad about my saying that his latest sit rep was not on par to what we were used to, a man has his life and issues as the article shows)

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 28 2026 18:28 utc | 17

China announces further fusion advances. And More ‘DeepSeek moments’ ahead: Will US continue to build walls or learn? – Global Times. And US ex-official’s 6G spectrum alert reveals Washington’s ‘strategic anxiety’ as China’s early wireless buildup strengthens AI edge: analysts – Global Times
 
And lastly, Warwick Powell writing for Guancha under his Bao Shaoshan pen name, Bao Shaoshan: In the face of the U.S. ban, we must establish a “Digital Westphalia” with the opening paragraphs providing a glimpse at the topic’s essence:
 

Not long ago, the U.S. government issued an order to Anthropic: to suspend access to its flagship models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, to all foreign nationals. Regardless of whether you are in the U.S. or if you are a foreign employee hired by Anthropic, they are completely prohibited.
 
Anthropic’s response was straightforward—this kind of nationality-based access blocking is practically ineffective, and forcing it would only mess things up, so they simply shut down these two models for all users worldwide.
 
In the public statement, Anthropic’s dissatisfaction was barely hidden. They say the whole thing started with a non-universal “jailbreak” demo involving code vulnerability identification—and that capability has long existed in other models. They argued that this directive lacked transparency, technical basis, and even less reasonable, affecting hundreds of millions of users. What’s even more intriguing is that this incident made it clear to the public: even companies like Anthropic, which are so tightly tied to U.S. interests, cannot escape the awkward internal pull of policy tugs. 

 

Almost back-to-back times, China’s Zhipu AI (an international brand Z.ai) released its latest flagship model, GLM-5.2. This model has a solid 1 million token context window, strong programming capabilities, and strong long-range agent capabilities. More importantly, they plan to use the MIT license to release model weights, making them fully open source, allowing developers worldwide to use them and adapt them however they want.

 

The coincidence of these two events is not a coincidence, but a true microcosm of two paths for AI development. The US line emphasizes controls and export restrictions, treating technological nodes as weapons; On China’s side, the approach is openness, rapid iteration, and customized sovereignty, relying on material foundations to support resilience. The two lines together form a grand picture in the process of taking shape—I call it ‘Digital Westphalia.’ The foundation of this order is national sovereignty, relying on open protocols, interoperability standards, and a solid technological foundation—not on anyone’s external hegemony or a monopoly by any particular company.

 
There’s a lot to learn from Chinese media that isn’t found at all in western news, although some technical publications might.  

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2026 18:30 utc | 18

John Gilberts:

Thank you for this!:

Rhonda Vincent & The Rage – Orange Blossom Special (Live)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lofci1Kn3l8

Posted by: Agonizing Reappraisal | Jun 28 2026 18:37 utc | 19

Guancha‘s headline article today expands upon Warwicck Powell’s report, US media hype that further suppressing Anthropic and other American AI companies is essentially handing over the advantage to China. That US media is WSJ. The Outlaw US Empire’s attempts to restrict technology in the hopes of having an advantage are clearly failing, and not because certain chips are allowed to be exported. As I’ve written many times, Nature’s secrets can be discovered by anyone with the knowledge to do so, which is what China’s been doing. IMO, it’s become clear the Empire cannot beat China in the “tech race” but is incapable of changing its behavior and POV. China’s confidence as shown by making its AI platforms open source is something the Empire increasingly cannot handle. Thus, we’ll continue to hear complaints that China’s progressing too fast.  

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2026 18:50 utc | 20

 
https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/187700#
DD Geopolitics 
 
150 Years After Greasy Grass: The Lakota Remember Victory Day 
Descendants of the Cheyenne, Lakota, and Arapaho lead a ceremonial charge on the 150th anniversary of the Battle of the Little Bighorn, when 3,000 Plains Indians annihilated Lieutenant Colonel George Custer and the entirety of the 7th Cavalry. 
 
The flags of tribal nations flying over the same earth where Lakota, Cheyenne, and Arapaho warriors stood united against cavalry assault in 1876. 
 
Descendants of the Cheyenne, Lakota, and Arapaho lead a ceremonial charge on the 150th anniversary of the Battle of the Little Bighorn, when 3,000 Plains Indians annihilated Lieutenant Colonel George Custer and the entirety of the 7th Cavalry. Only fifty Cheyenne, Lakota, and Arapaho warriors died in the two-day battle, which began at 3 pm on Sunday, June 25, 1876 and concluded the following day. 
 
Little Bighorn, Montana. 06.25.26.
 

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jun 28 2026 19:53 utc | 21

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 28 2026 18:28 utc | 17
 
The trick is to go full kayfabe. Don’t try to preserve anonymity, double down on your actual identity and then begin to sow doubt. In the end punters will say, yes it’s x, but it might not be… can’t be sure. It’s hiding in plain sight. Read the Odyssey. That’s its central theme. (Do not watch the the Nolan film—it will be unmitigated goat shite.)

Posted by: Patroklos | Jun 28 2026 19:56 utc | 22

@ ChatNPC | Jun 28 2026 16:55 utc | 10
 
i was encouraging them to read the article, but you summation is much better.. thanks! 

Posted by: james | Jun 28 2026 20:04 utc | 23

Then Trump offers 150 million in aid.  then I see US Army troops deployed to “assist”.  What a perfect opportunity to establish military posts smack dab in the middle of Caracas.  Kind of like the US embassy in Baghdad. I guess I am probably just a cynical old man but something smells here.
Posted by: dan of steele | Jun 28 2026 15:40 utc | 5

 
US intervention in Venezuela terminated the oil for medical professional deal with Cuba
and displaced about 30.000 medical professionals back to Cuba.
sorely missed now in Venezuela.
Another “Trump the Asshole” activity.

Posted by: MAKK | Jun 28 2026 21:09 utc | 24

William Gruff | Jun 28 2026 15:44 utc | 6
 
I figured you were onto something. Putin stated the engine could be brought up to full power in seconds which seems to rule out a conventional liquid metal-cooled reactor heating the air through a heat exchanger (the coolant starts out as a solid!). I remember another poster (General Factotum?) had some objections but didn’t have time to set them out. I’d like to hear them if you’re lurking out there, I’m just a fanboy with no science background. Pretty ballsy to test an open-cycle nuclear turbojet over your own territory, if any of the fuel elements fail the exhaust becomes radioactive!

Posted by: S.P. Korolev | Jun 28 2026 21:18 utc | 25

re: michaelj72 | Jun 28 2026 19:53 utc | 21
 
Some years ago I read that George Custer at some point in his life came to New Zealand for a short time as a ‘military advisor” to help with “problems with the natives”. The claim in the book wasn’t referenced and my superficial internet search didn’t reveal any confirmation. Currently google ai says –
“There is no direct connection between American General George Custer and New Zealand. His only links to the country are through historical comparisons, academic research, and the availability of literature about his military career.”
Can anyone out there confirm or deny? Thank you.

Posted by: tucenz | Jun 28 2026 21:38 utc | 26

Zionazi entity videoed ordering Hannibal deaths on October 7th. 
“stop filming”
 
 

@ireallyhateyou
Jun 26
October 7, 2023, early morning, Israel’s police command center: “(Strike) Gaza. Break it all apart. Along with the soldiers who got abducted.”
 
In the first hours of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, while conversing with Israel’s Police Chief Kobi Shabtai, another senior officer calls to implement the Hannibal Directive, and destroy Gaza along with the Israeli captives. Minister Itamar Ben Gvir later arrives and orders to stop filming the meeting.
 
Aired on Channel 12 on February 12, 2026
 
Jun 26, 2026 · 6:15 PM UTC

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 28 2026 21:43 utc | 27

ps
From the River to the see. 

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 28 2026 21:44 utc | 28

Time for a spot of Irish music – 5 mins
 
Wait Until the Chorus… You’ll Feel It in Your Soul | Celtic Music

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 28 2026 22:05 utc | 29

dan of steele | Jun 28 2026 15:40 utc | 5
*** After the fairly severe earthquakes in Caracas, I have been watching mass media from the US and there seems to be an extraordinary amount of coverage and the general slant seems to be that the Venezuelan government is unable to assist.***
 
Natural or partly induced earthquakes?
 

Posted by: Cynic | Jun 28 2026 22:36 utc | 30

Time for a spot of Irish music – 5 mins
 
Wait Until the Chorus… You’ll Feel It in Your Soul | Celtic Music
 
Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 28 2026 22:05 utc | 29
Thanks for this, Donnie boy!

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 28 2026 22:58 utc | 31

Guess thus poet:
 
All the fruit is ripe, plunged in fire, cooked,
 
And they have passed their test on earth, and one law is this:
 
That everything curls inward, like snakes,
 
Prophetic, dreaming on
 
The hills of heaven. And many things
 
Have to stay on the shoulders like a load
 
of failure. However the roads
 
Are bad. For the chained elements,
 
Like horses, are going off to the side,
 
And the old
 
Laws of the earth. And a longing
 
For disintegration constantly comes. Many things however
 
Have to stay on the shoulders. Steadiness is essential.
 
Forwards, however, or backwards we will
 
Not look. Let us learn to live swaying
 
As in a rocking boat on the sea

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Jun 28 2026 23:06 utc | 32

Putin addressed the 23rd United Russia Congress today for just 17-minutes which you can read here. Afterwards he held a meeting discussing the national fuel supply, which for gasoline is only down 4% from last years amount.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2026 23:33 utc | 33

@32
That was very good. I don’t know who wrote it. It doesn’t matter, I understood the imagery.

Posted by: Upsidedowndingo | Jun 28 2026 23:55 utc | 34

Just when does the economic crash happen?
 
Will it be triggered by the pop of the AI balloon?
 
ZH has a premium posting up with the title of
 
Hedge Funds Sold The Most Tech Stocks On Record Last Week Amid “Explosive” Volumes
 
and subtitle of
 

“Info Tech was by far the most net sold US (and global) sector, driven by long-and-short sales (1.3 to 1); this week’s net selling in US Info Tech – in both $ and % terms – was the largest in more than 10 years, a 4-sigma move.”

 
Trump has been driving the world economies into the ground since he started his 2nd term and he is close to success for his owners who would have killed him by now otherwise, eh?
 
Why does the God Of Mammon cult want to crash the world economies?
To lock in all the long term refinancing to global private finance more than the budding China/Russia/Iran sovereign nation alternatives is my answer.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 0:21 utc | 35

Burkina Faso has officially severed diplomatic ties with France, marking a dramatic escalation in the deteriorating relationship between the former colony and its one-time colonial power. The military-led government accused Paris of neo-colonial interference and acting against Burkina Faso’s national interests, while France rejected the allegations as unfounded and announced it was considering reciprocal measures.

Posted by: arby | Jun 29 2026 0:21 utc | 36

There’s a lot to learn from Chinese media that isn’t found at all in western news, although some technical publications might.  
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 28 2026 18:30 utc | 18
 
Thanks for sharing these two articles. Indeed, the contrast between the MOs of US and China is not only striking but ironic, as it is China that was supposed to be the closed up society while US prided itself on openness. The AI battleground is a new one on which these two opposing approaches to Tech are waging their bets, and this time around the open model will likely emerge as winner.
I say that as one who has been dismayed at AI’s emergence in general for any number of reasons, the key one being that it emerged way too soon in our evolution as species, way before a true consensus on this mysterious ingredient called “Ethics” has been reached. No wonder a siege mentality has taken over US policy makers (not just this one administration), as the moats they seek to erect are breached no sooner than they are erected.

Posted by: Merlin | Jun 29 2026 0:30 utc | 37

S.P. Korolev @25: “Pretty ballsy to test an open-cycle nuclear turbojet over your own territory, if any of the fuel elements fail the exhaust becomes radioactive!”
 
 
The Russians have been front-runners in material science as their amazing RD-180 rocket engine proved. Western rocket scientists didn’t believe an oxygen-rich staged combustion engine was possible even after the Russians were flying them due to the perceived impossibility of developing materials that could survive that application. My guess is they have done it again with a ceramic, or knowing the Russians a ceramic/metal (cermet) composite, that can function as the reactor fuel matrix and moderator while resisting the erosion/corrosion from high temperature and pressure atmospheric airflow. That would prevent reactor fuel from being eroded away by the air flowing through the engine and that fuel being spewed out with the exhaust. 
 
 
That said the air itself that cools the reactor core and provides the propulsion will become radioactive through something called “neutron activation”. In particular, this will transform the traces of argon in the atmosphere that passes through the engine into argon 41, which is a highly radioactive isotope. Of course, there isn’t all that much argon in the atmosphere, and the half-life of argon 41 is just minutes, so if you even want to detect it you have to act fast. It ain’t like it poisons the environment for the next ten thousand years or anything like that. Basically, the Burevestnik does leave a radioactive exhaust plume, but it isn’t really something worth getting hysterical over as it fades very quickly. One can fly directly over you and the amount of radiation you are exposed to likely wouldn’t amount to as much as a single dental X-ray.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2026 1:01 utc | 38

Posted by: james | Jun 28 2026 15:59 utc | 7
I would like to read the article, but can’t get past the paywall.   I know there’s a way to do it, but I don’t know what it is.
 
As for Venezuela, ”

The United States sold $3.7 billion of Venezuela’s oil this April alone. After earthquakes killed more than 900 Venezuelans this week, it offered the survivors $150 million.

Since the January raid that hauled Nicolás Maduro to a courtroom in New York, the administration has treated the country’s crude as a prize.

In April alone it moved $3.7 billion of it, most of it shipped to the United States. The executive order his lawyers drafted calls that money Venezuela’s “sovereign property, held in custody by the United States.” Held in custody by the people now deciding how little of it flows back.

Days before the ground opened, Trump bragged that the operation had already earned its costs back twenty-eight times over. He said Venezuelans were “happy.” He said they “have smiles.”

Then the towers came down across La Guaira and Caracas, the strongest quakes the country has seen since 1900.

They hit on a national holiday, so families were home when the walls fell. No heavy machinery arrived, so volunteers dug their neighbors out of the concrete by hand.”
 

https://www.facebook.com/TheOther98

Posted by: wagelaborer | Jun 29 2026 1:36 utc | 39

That feeling of not being able to get enough oxygen was very sobering (read: scary). I never smoked another cigarette after that night.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 26 2026 20:44 utc | 79
               %%%%%%%%%%%%%%
There was even some confusion expressed by a poster with a very high opinion of its own intellect that we were for some reason discussing rocket engines! Oh, the poor tragically confused poster… In any case, it appears that researchers from MIT have come to the same conclusion that I did:
 Here’s how Russia’s nuclear-powered ‘Skyfall” missile works This is actually not at all surprising as the size and operational characteristics of the missile significantly constrain the possible options for how it could be made to work, but it is useful to have the speculation about how Burevestnik works reinforced by deeper analysis from others with knowledge of the potential technology involved and who are not prone to mixing up rocket engines with jet engines. 
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 28 2026 15:44 utc | 6

 
********************
 
Thanks Mr. Gruff! It is great to know that your near-death experience through oxygen deprivation has not affected your memory 🙂 even if what you so vividly remember is a conclusion that you reached that is not substantiated by the text that I wrote. Not wishing to nit-pick, but I don’t recall expressing any opinion on my ‘intellect’, let alone suggesting a high opinion. The only thing that I rely on when making comments, usually restricted to topics of which I have some knowledge, is some level of formal training, experience, and wide reading that I have found to be sometimes useful in aiding understanding.

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 2:06 utc | 40

The General Dick is back! I wonder if it has sorted out the difference between rocket engines and jet engines yet? After all, “The only thing that I rely on when making comments, usually restricted to topics of which I have some knowledge…” 
 
Fake humility is always hilarious when it turns out to be much more justified than intended.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2026 2:37 utc | 41

Thanks for another great week, b.

 
A multi-nodal/multi-polar world is my answer. What is yours?
 
The British empire ceased in its Suez moment passing the baton to the next empire.
 
So far, so good? Whom will the current empire pass the baton to, in its Hormuz moment?
 
Your answer?

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Jun 29 2026 2:54 utc | 42

Fake humility is always hilarious when it turns out to be much more justified than intended.
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 29 2026 2:37 utc | 43
 
*****************
 
‘General Dick’ must be utterly bewildered by your comment? Apparently unable to bend his towering intellect to achieving even fake fake humility, he now finds the illusion of success in exceeding even his own lofty intentions. I think I just caught a glimpse of him basking in the reflected limelight of his own brilliance. He is happy that you can share his new-found success.

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 2:57 utc | 43

Another example of the Roaring 20’s we are in from ZH
 

Prediction Markets – Bet on Anything
And now, the next evolution in gambling. Prediction markets.
The name sounds respectable. Honey, I’m not gambling. I’m predicting.
Same difference.
On sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can bet on almost anything.

  • Will it rain in New York City today?
  • Will Trump say “Dumbocrats” in his speech tonight?
  • Will the Fed raise interest rates by 0.25% in October?
  • Who will win the UFC fight?

You can even bet on where Taylor Swift’s wedding will take place. New York, or Rhode Island? A few bold bettors say it’ll be in Pennsylvania (3% chance, make 33x your money!).
The suspense is killing me…
Naturally, there is a huge insider trading problem in prediction markets. Someone on Taylor Swift’s team probably knows where the wedding will be. They could bet themselves, but then they might get caught. So they might tip off friends, and share the winnings.
Insider trading is becoming a major problem in prediction markets. We’ve already seen a U.S. soldier get busted for betting on Nicolas Maduro’s removal from power in Venezuela. He won $400,000, but got caught.

Sports betting was $166 billion last year. Total U.S. investment into 401ks is about $600 billion per annum. And gambling is growing much faster.
Compared to sports gambling, where only 4% win, the choice is clear.

 
 
I expect the Roaring 20’s to end before 2030

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 4:24 utc | 44

Adding more emphasis to the AI bubble there is this posting title at ZH
 
Bursting Of AI Bubble, Collapse Of Circular Deals Are Among Top Risks To Global Financial System, BIS Warns
 

The assessment highlighted AI-led risks prominently in a report that arrived on the eve of the ECB’s three-day annual symposium in Sintra, where a host of global policymakers will also scrutinize such stability dangers closely.
“Disappointment in returns could trigger a sudden pullback in financing and turn the capex boom into a protracted investment bust, with potential knock-on effects on financial conditions,” the BIS said, before observing that “a major equity-market correction could have larger macroeconomic consequences today than in the past.”

“Repricing of risk this time, whether triggered by higher interest rates or an AI bust, has the potential to be similarly disruptive” in that segment to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the BIS said. 
On AI specifically, officials highlighted vulnerabilities linked to funding, including complex arrangements such so-called “circular financing” deals that can mix equity and debt with supplier-client contracts (as discussed here “The $1.8 Trillion Off-Balance Sheet Time Bomb At The Heart Of The AI Supercycle”)
For instance, chipmakers and hyperscalers take stakes in AI labs or neocloud providers, who in turn commit to multi-year purchases of chips or computing power, the BIS said. Data center construction is more frequently outsourced to third parties that lease facilities back to hyperscalers on long-term contracts with embedded exit clauses.
“The terms of such deals are typically poorly disclosed, with risks of the same asset being pledged multiple times,” officials wrote.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 4:41 utc | 45

Dun Groaning,
 
Stop Filming – hmmmm. Hannibal Massacre it surely was.
 
 

Posted by: Exile | Jun 29 2026 6:04 utc | 46

@ Posted by: Exile | Jun 29 2026 6:04 utc | 46
YES  
is there anyone HERE who doubts it? 
 
is there anyone who does not accept that the illegal apartheid entity should never have been born?
 
 Is there anyone who believes ‘it’ should not be dissolved and it’s invader killer alien should be removed?
 
 
if there is – that ‘person’ is not a human:huwoman but a HasbaRat! 
 
Time to do a tail count – call for death to the child killing IOF. Call for an end of the entity. Which has just written itself a new Balfour Declaration with the wholly owned and controlled Lebanese satrap. Which they will use as they did Balfour hasty IOU to lord redshield as some legal right above and beyond their dumb claim of ‘divine right’. 
I’ll be calling everyone a HasbaRat unless they call for an end to IsntReal, WasNeverReal, UsReal…
 
 
Tails up! 
 
From the River to the Sea

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 29 2026 6:37 utc | 47

Good morning from London btw barflies. I see there is some attempt at poetry and introspection and to go with my above post on the odious ‘Hannibal’ Kabbalist shit heads. A reflection on another route of such fascism in Japan – how are men enticed to believe they must obey? Here’s another dot of history…
 
 

Blitzer Media Group
@lord_avicenna
Jun 26
Ritual Without Bushidō
 
Ritual is not honor.
 
If your leaders sign memorandums and agreements with those they once denounced as responsible for killing their own leaders, then beating your chest changes nothing.
 
Bushidō measured loyalty by the price one was willing to pay for principle not by public displays of grief.
 
When deeds contradict words, ceremony becomes theater, and honor becomes a costume.
Jun 26, 2026 · 1:08 PM UTC

 
We can look at ‘Bushido’ in detail later. After tea watering and breakfast. The heat has broken here much sleep is being caught up by Brits who are not used to tropical nights. Or topical knights. 

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 29 2026 6:46 utc | 48

Wild Life Drama – Sandy fell out of the nest …. 12 mins
 
FOBBVCAM Eagles 🦅SANDY FELL FROM NEST🍂 FOBBV May Have Located Her🎉 Phew!😮‍💨 2026 Jun 28   tbc

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 6:56 utc | 49

@Newby 17
 

“…the reality is that my heart has not been in it…”

 
More and more of the pro Russian posters are giving up. Amerikanets and Baron of the Taiga have made their Twitter accounts private. Armchair Warlord has stopped talking about war. Ayden is posting much less than he used to.  There seems to be a common thread of exhaustion and dispiritedness. More and more people are probably beginning to realise that supporting Russia at this point is just laying the ground for more heartbreak as long as Putin continues shackling Russia’s conduct of the war.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Jun 29 2026 7:10 utc | 50

contd.
Sandy’s unintentional fledge/fludge update.    3mins

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 7:18 utc | 51

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Jun 29 2026 7:10 utc | 50
 
Oh ye of little faith – wars of attrition require patience … 
 
Being Irish I should know – we have waged a guerilla war of attrition against an adversary for a few centuries short of a millenium – and the adversary is finally wilting … have faith and all will go well with ye!

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 7:23 utc | 52

If we harken back a couple months there was a speculative discussion about how Russia’s Burevestnik cruise missile worked. I speculated on it being a High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor, similar to a pebble-bed or prismatic block core reactor, and that it was directly cooled by the atmospheric air used for propulsion in a conventional turbojet arrangement. While there were other possibilities such as breeder reactors suggested, I argued against these as being too heavy, too bulky, too slow to start, too complex and too expensive. There was even some confusion expressed by a poster with a very high opinion of its own intellect that we were for some reason discussing rocket engines! Oh, the poor tragically confused poster… In any case, it appears that researchers from MIT have come to the same conclusion that I did: Here’s how Russia’s nuclear-powered ‘Skyfall” missile works This is actually not at all surprising as the size and operational characteristics of the missile significantly constrain the possible options for how it could be made to work, but it is useful to have the speculation about how Burevestnik works reinforced by deeper analysis from others with knowledge of the potential technology involved and who are not prone to mixing up rocket engines with jet engines. 
Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 28 2026 15:44 utc | 6
 
******************
 
Thanks for your post and the embedded link. Both are very informative and warrant a brief synopsis, which will provide a useful illustration of the importance of paying close attention to, and basing detailed assessment on, primary sources.
 
Mr. Gruff’s post claims justification for the correctness of his earlier conjecture, re-visits the ‘tragically confused’ poster who allegedly cannot discriminate between a rocket and a jet engine, references an NPR article written by Geoff Brumfiel and Connie Hanzhang Jin (who have no relevant technical background) which was based on the podcast of an interview between the host, Steve Inskeep, and Jake Hecla, Brumfiel, and Jeffrey Lewis. For entertainment value, President Vladimir Putin makes a guest appearance in the podcast, but speaks only in Russian. Nobody pays any attention to President Putin. Jake Hecla is a co-author (with  R. Scott Kemp), both from MIT,  of a paper:
 
https://bpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.mit.edu/dist/6/1499/files/2026/06/Burevestnik_Paper_Final_pdf.pdf
 
referred to, but not referenced, in the NPR article.
 
So, just to recap the sequence of “Chinese Whispers” detailed above: Mr. Gruff presents his interpretation of comments made by two non-expert NPR writers who were conveying their understanding of a podcast (or transcript) hosted by a non-technical person (Steve Inskeep), where the transcript of the podcast details the total contribution of one of the co-authors (Hecla) of the technical paper referred to above in five very brief comments:
 

  1.  “This is a concept that had not been explored in a serious way, really, since the 1950s or early 1960s.”
  2.  “Is something that is possible but wildly expensive and very dangerous.”
  3. “I realized that there was a ton of data here.”
  4. “I spent many hours repeating these measurements over and over and over again.”
  5.  “It is likely to leave a radioactive trail. And as a result, anyone living near is at enormous risk, potentially, if this system flies off course.”

 
Hecla’s contribution to the podcast could hardly be characterised as informative. Of interest, a brief bio of Hecla from the MIT website, edited and emphasis mine ( full bio here: https://spacenuclear.mit.edu/research-thrusts/  )
 
Jake Hecla is a Stanton Postdoctoral Fellow in Nuclear Security at the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy at MIT. His work focuses on the technical characteristics, signatures and deterrence impacts of air-breathing nuclear propulsion, an emerging technique for high-persistence flight. The ongoing development of the Burevestnik nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered cruise missile has generated unique detection and countermeasure challenges. To better understand this system and to gain insight into future applications of air-breathing nuclear propulsion, Hecla has developed tools for predicting nuclear engine performance that couple thermodynamic cycle modelling and neutronics. …
 
And then to terminate the chain of building informed understanding, the interested barfly forms their own opinion based on their understanding of Mr. Gruff’s analysis and summary of his understanding of information received from the above process.
 
What could possibly go wrong??
 
By the way, no-one – so far as I have seen – has actually commented on the original paper. I highly recommend reading  the paper. It is ‘accessible’ in the sense that, since it was written by a postdoc specialising in nuclear security, it is not highly technical – so it is an excellent introduction for the interested layperson. I read it a couple of weeks ago, and if time permits I will try to write some brief reading notes for the interested barfly – assuming one exists.
 
Enjoy!!

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 11:22 utc | 53

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 11:22 utc | 53
 
Hello. Thank you very much for your contribution.
 
I followed the link provided, but I didn’t find anything substantial there.
It’s a perfect example of the kind of article supposedly Western “scientists” write to disparage any Chinese or Russian advancement.
 
It always starts by claiming that it isn’t an innovation, but rather an imitation of a Western concept or an upgrade to some existing, outdated technology.
 
Then it goes on into far-fetched hypotheses claiming that the reality doesn’t match the claims—arguing, for instance, that it isn’t truly hypersonic or fully functional.
 
Finally, it always concludes by saying it’s dangerous, or that it exists only as a prototype or in very limited numbers—in short, that it’s a “nothingburger.”
 
When reading such things, it becomes obvious that even if the author has the relevant scientific background, they set it aside to write a hit piece—likely a commissioned one.
 
Two things seem clear:
1) A Westerner isn’t the one to explain how a hypersonic or nuclear missile works; simply put, since they have failed to produce one themselves so far, they are ill-equipped to evaluate the systems created by those who *have* succeeded.
 
2) Furthermore, someone tied to the Western military-industrial complex isn’t going to speak positively about a Russian technological breakthrough; they are far too busy denying and disparaging it.
 
Ultimately, if this were something within the grasp of just any MoA commenter, the world’s greatest military power wouldn’t be failing to achieve it—despite having access to experts and pouring in colossal resources for years.
A little humility wouldn’t hurt.

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 12:19 utc | 54

^
If I were to go down that route, I would first consider a radioisotope thermoelectric generator paired with a ducted electric turbofan.
 
Anyone want to crunch the numbers 🤔? 

Posted by: lachaussette | Jun 29 2026 12:43 utc | 55

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 29 2026 12:19 utc | 54
 
****
 
Thanks for your kind words. You are absolutely correct (or should I say I agree with you 100%) with your assessment on who writes the western ‘analysis’ of Russian technology, their purpose, and their underlying qualification. It is difficult to understand why gullible people put so much credence  on such rubbish.

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 12:57 utc | 56

Thank God Chinese EVs dont kill masses of animals and have zero environmental impact in their production, maintenance or disposal.
 
And they have been thoroughly tested before being dumped all over the planet.
 
Add this to the awesome reports of how glorious Russian next Gen nukes are, I can’t imagine why suicide is so high among the world’s children.
 
The ruling classes who are in power because of their partnership with the West have NO answers for the future. The current Russian and Chinese ruling classes rule because of their decades long partnership with the West.
 
Partnership. Business partners who are fighting with each other who all have the same answer: more technology, more and more vastly complicated machinery.
 
And who gets the car market wins the future. That’s totally insane.
 
Like a medical pro who expects a pill to solve capitalism’s artificial food crisis. 
 
China doesnt just lie their fucking asses off cuz they are capitalist swindlers? Nah. What % of global landfill waste is produced in China?
 
Our saviors!

Posted by: Duck n cover | Jun 29 2026 13:14 utc | 57

If I were to go down that route, I would first consider a radioisotope thermoelectric generator paired with a ducted electric turbofan. Anyone want to crunch the numbers ? 
Posted by: lachaussette | Jun 29 2026 12:43 utc | 55
 
***********
 
Sure – a quick BOTE.
A radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) has a typical specific power output around 5W/Kg. They generally have a thermal efficiency around 5%, with some designs going slightly higher. Solid-state conversion to electrical energy utilises the Seebeck Effect.
 
Modelling (with heavy assumptions) of the Burevestnik indicate an energy source around 4.5MW at cruise, with peak power  during climb and terminal maneuvering around 15 MW is required.
 
My brain is starting to hurt, so I’ll round the assumptions to 5W/Kg for RTG  specific power output and 5 MW of power required for steady Burevestnik flight at Mach 0.9.
 
Your RTG weighs around 1 million Kg, or 1,000 tonne. Now add shielding, controls, airframe….
 
In the spirit of MoA humor reflection, as exemplified by two overly verbose barflies:
 
“Simple as a hammer. The only difficulty is in the implementation”
 
“Yes, and the RTG-powered Burevestnik will exhibit the aerodynamic capabilities of a hammer.”
 
Now, what is your second consideration?  🙂
 

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 13:14 utc | 58

Per goog, more awesome news about humanity’s saviors:
 
China’s advertising industry is the second-largest in the world, generating total revenues surpassing two trillion yuan (approximately $285 billion). The market is dominated by digital media, accounting for over 85% of total ad spend, and China now commands roughly 20% of the entire global ad market.
—-
More sweet and sour sauce please! Chinese AI can automate shoving crap down people’s throats. Exactly like their US models and instructors.

Posted by: Duck n cover | Jun 29 2026 13:25 utc | 59

Per goog, China produces 34% of global plastic, more than the 6 next biggest producers combined. 
 
Bra fucking oh. Real visionaries.

Posted by: Duck n cover | Jun 29 2026 13:38 utc | 60

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 13:14 utc 
 
Hmm, yes.  I thought about putting the plutonium pellets in a pressure vessel and pumping in water to produce steam to power a steam turbine, but then I thought my visit to the Science Museum was weighing too heavily on my mind.
 
Now for my second:
 
Think whales and dolphins. How about silent, RTG powered submarine glider drones mooching around the depths of the oceans? An armada of man o’ war, replaced with the artifact of man, working the tidal currents by means of anchor and motor, surfacing for the occasional databurst. A silent Sentinel of the deep, the submariner replacement of the Drone Wars🤔.

Posted by: lachaussette | Jun 29 2026 14:03 utc | 61

The propaganda mess of the Australian  central bank
 
https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=63247
 
 
In one word – GROUPTHINK!
 
 
99% of all central banks suffer from the very same disease. Because of their Bretton Woods, gold standard, fixed exchange rate lens.
 
 

Posted by: Andrew | Jun 29 2026 14:04 utc | 62

Somebody needs to tell the Judge the difference between petroleum derivatives and financial derivatives

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 29 2026 16:18 utc | 63

About the RAMpocalypse (the fact that DDR5 chips are low availability and with bloated prices …)
Apple seeks to buy memory out of the cartel (Samsung , SkHynix, Micron) and asked permission to the gov (In the Land of the Free , you ask government beforehand.) to buy Chinese RAM (that don’t have spare capacity for export to bejing with.)
Consumer seems to be bored by the oligarchic practice of the cartel
Sure , sure : they don’t have the means to produce … and predicted the crisis could last until 2028 (when DDR6 will be mature).
Well well well … should I remember well , wasn’t it a thing called “anti-thrust law” once upon a time ?

Posted by: Savonarole | Jun 29 2026 16:20 utc | 64

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 28 2026 15:44 utc | 6

Thank you for the link! It’s a very thorough analysis. I gave it a quick read and will return to it when I have more time. I wonder if another pair of boosters could be used for terminal acceleration to complicate interception.

Posted by: S | Jun 29 2026 16:20 utc | 65

He’s kinda right. Dumb first king of Mars! 
 
They certainly killed the most Nazis and fascists in WW2. 
 
They’ll do it again. 
 

 

@EricLDaugh
5h

🚨 JUST IN: Elon Musk calls for the invocation of the Communist Control Act, declaring communism has the “highest death count of ANY philosophy” HE’S RIGHT 💯 It’s time for a war on communism. They are on the rise and are remaking the Democratic Party to destroy America and western civilization. COMMUNISTS CAN NEVER WIN 🇺🇸 @elonmusk

Jun 29, 2026 · 12:02 PM UTC

Posted by: DunGroanin | Jun 29 2026 17:36 utc | 66

contd. Luna’s first flight … 6 mins
 
FOBBV Eagles Luna FLEDGES🎉🎉🎉 Perfect Flight & Landing Across From Nest Tree

Posted by: Don Firineach | Jun 29 2026 21:26 utc | 67

Now for my second: Think whales and dolphins. How about silent, RTG powered submarine glider drones mooching around the depths of the oceans? An armada of man o’ war, replaced with the artifact of man, working the tidal currents by means of anchor and motor, surfacing for the occasional databurst. A silent Sentinel of the deep, the submariner replacement of the Drone Wars.
Posted by: lachaussette | Jun 29 2026 14:03 utc | 61
 
******************
 
Well – at least weight is not so much of a problem with submarine vessels…. Size may present a problem because of the low specific power output of RTG’s. Why don’t you run a few quick numbers analogous to the rocket equation to get a handle on how much extra power is required to overcome the drag introduced by accommodating that previous extra power brought on board?
 
Here’s a novel thought: why do we not make friends, rather than trying to find new ways of killing people? Then we could turn our military efforts towards looking after homeless people, providing good food for all, education, medical support, including preventative health measures… Yes, yes, I know; stamping our foot and beating our chest and bragging about how exceptional our homeless shelter program is doesn’t quite have the same macho ring to it as ‘educating’ the population of another country by blowing one of their schools, does it?

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 22:51 utc | 68

Germany is already out of the World Cup. I’ve never seen a German team this bad—lacking any real presence or drive to play. It almost looks like the players wanted to get knocked out early so they could enjoy their summer vacations far away from fascist Trumpland. Thank God Italy missed this racist, dirty World Cup. The refereeing scandals are going to drive FIFA to commit suicide.

Posted by: Friûl | Jun 30 2026 0:05 utc | 69

A man enters a hat shop, and asks for a white bowler hat. The shopkeeper says he doesn’t have any white bowler hats.
The man then goes on to visit all hat shops in town, asking for a white bowler hat.
Next meeting of the towns’ hat sellers, all say there is demand for white bowler hats. 
So the hat sellers all order two white bowler hats, each. 
When the white bowler hats go on sale, the single buyer man buys one white bowler hat. 
The shopkeepers are stuck with the remaining stock. 
 
That, in a nutshell, is what is happening in the semiconductor/AI business today. 
Companies have done market research, showing demand. 
They are all ramping up production at the same time. 
And they will offer products for sale at the same time – and find out they have all targeted the same market segment at the same time. 

Posted by: The Far Side | Jun 30 2026 5:31 utc | 70

Neutrality Studies: Gerald Celente
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cu5otZKIRI
 
“The greatest depression has already started.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 10:18 utc | 71

Posted by: William Gruff | Jun 28 2026 15:44 utc | 6

Thank you for the link! It’s a very thorough analysis. I gave it a quick read and will return to it when I have more time. I wonder if another pair of boosters could be used for terminal acceleration to complicate interception.
Posted by: S | Jun 29 2026 16:20 utc | 65
 
******************
 
Hello Mr. S.  When reading the NPR article, podcast/transcript, and in particular the pdf (“Modelling the performance…”) paper you may like to keep the following in mind:
 
Firstly, I suggest you re-read my post at 53 above to make sure you have the context for the pdf. Also, keep in mind the following observations:
 

  1. When I study a paper I first look at the affiliation and qualifications of the author(s). I have already provided some comments on Hecla. You may wish to dig deeper into his field of expertise, experience, and his publishing record.
  2. The next thing to assess is the publisher. This is very important as the publisher lends weight to the credibility and authority of the paper and the author. Top tier publishers jealously guard their reputation through the review process. It is worth noting that this paper has not been published, and therefore has almost certainly not been rigorously peer-reviewed. It is highly irregular for a serious author to place a paper on open public access if they are serious about subsequent journal publication. Just as an aside, I have peer-reviewed hundreds of papers and I would not approve this paper for publication.
  3. Next, I look at the references section. This helps put the work in context with other research, and the level of standing of the references assists with a rough mental ranking of the research target. (Exercise caution here, as the references can be ‘gamed’ or even be fraudulent – easy to audit…). Note that this paper includes references from youtube, a significant number of conference articles, Bellona, and the Moscow Times (!!). Hardly a line-up to engender technical confidence?
  4. Next, I scan the Figures, Tables, Graphs, and Equations. This is bit like taking the pulse of a patient. I can quickly get a ‘feel’ for the depth of quality, or ‘substance’ of the paper. First impression is a lot of “fluff”. The equations are mostly superfluous, and not actually needed or used by the authors in their discussion. The Figures take up a lot of space and look nice’, but don’t add much to any depth of understanding. Table 6 is a good example of unnecessary padding. The array of numbers in this Table are just the outputs of the authors’ model. Nothing is actually measured. Their model is not sufficiently detailed for the reader to form any views on its validity. There are no uncertainties presented on the range of results.
  5. It is clear that the authors are speculating on the technology they think is used based solely on what they already think they know. Imagine a paper written 150 years ago by ‘scientists’ who have no idea or understanding of heavier than air flight trying to describe possible mechanism of flight….

 
I am very interested a comments from barflies on their assessment of the scientific merit of the paper in question.

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 30 2026 10:44 utc | 72

The Upside Down World (& vid)
 
https://x.com/timand2037/status/2071523067164348822
 
“US troops (yes the ones that kidnapped President Maduro) invade Venezuela under the pretext of helping earthquake victims…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 10:59 utc | 73

I had an experience with Gemini which I think changed my understanding of Gemini – as it stands and is developing:
The question is not really significant, but to put the issue in context –
I asked it a simple analytical question – regarding the turning radius of a motorcycle.Superficially I had always thought that I knew approximately how to evaluate this parameter.But I now realize that I was wrong in my simplistic, layman’s analysis.I had an inkling of an idea, but being lazy, I thought I would let Gemini lay it all out for me.
But Gemini cam back with some seemingly analytical “answers”, but which did not seem quite plausible (to me) the main one being that the rounded tires of the motor cycle behave like conic sections when tilted and like a cone would roll in a circle (if laid on it’s side and rolled), so does the motorcycle’s tires.
I responded that I did not think that this could quite explain it and proposed what I thought.Which Gemini then responded was brilliant and when on to explain how this “more sophisticated” analysis would work.
So, my thought is that either Gemini simply gave a very lazy and simplistic answer on the first try or (my thinking) it does not want to discuss the proper analysis – maybe that would require a paid version or maybe it is doing that thing which we all suspect that it is hiding information (know-how) from the public which will only be revealed to those with a need to know or credentials such as researcher or government employee of college student.
=> My Point – It is really just a thought experiment – they could do it, which means they will do it if it serves their purposes:
They try to do this with medicine, history, law, and to some extent with matters of science and engineering.The subject which they guard most carefully is the matter of finance and social behavior – it is carefully obscured (for centuries) behind the most tedious and banal euphemisms and large breasted women. And yet, it is what makes the world what it is.
Yet AI has the potential to reveal to us all the reality.They will have to ensure this will not happen.
 

Posted by: jared | Jun 30 2026 14:32 utc | 74

Posted by: General Factotum | Jun 29 2026 22:51 utc
 
Hey, I’m friendly IRL🫠.
 
But I bet you’ll need more than the back of a fag packet to describe the physics behind this:
 
This Chunky Bee Shouldn’t Fly-But it Does:https://youtube.com/shorts/0082kQxe3zw
 
For this assignment you will be allowed to use your slide rule and abacus. Electronic calculators are forbidden although tables of integrals related to the task are acceptable. 
 
To achieve a pass you will need to show your proofs and demonstrate a an understanding of your workings. HB pencils and abrasive erasers are permitted but the use of Tippex will result in disqualification. 
 
The time is 16:19…. please turn over your paper.

Posted by: lachaussette | Jun 30 2026 15:19 utc | 75

Canadian Foreign Policy Hour with Yves Engler (June 29)
 
https://www.youtube.com/WCvDoE5T7E0
 
“I discussed the Nakba museum panic, World Cup, Venezuela and Iran diplomatic relations, Honest Reporting losing its charity status and Congo taking Rwanda to the ICJ.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 15:46 utc | 76

Cooperation Agreement Between Burkina-Faso & State of Israel
 
https://x.com/VocalPolitics1/status/207167785693808
 
“The Directorate of Communications of the Presidency of Burkina-Faso announced the accreditation of the Israeli occupation’s Ambassador to Burkina Faso, Simon Seroussi, publishing pictures of the Ambassador and President Ibrahim Traore and an official statement that said:
 
Cooperation between Burkina-Faso and the State of Israel is marked by the signing of a General Agreement on Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural Cooperation with an institutional framework that is not yet functional.’

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 17:41 utc | 77

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 17:41 utc | 77
 
Hmm…this page doesn’t exist. Try searching for something else.

Posted by: arby | Jun 30 2026 19:16 utc | 78

Chew on this ZH posting title fellow Americans
 
Imagine Your Tax Dollars Bailing Out Bitcoin

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jun 30 2026 19:49 utc | 79

Posting in this thread because it doesn’t have particular relevance to Iran or Ukraine, more a general overview on how the bigliest, bestliest air force in the world may not be able to live up to its own legend:

22 US Generals: The Air Force has become the oldest and smallest in modern history.

https://en.topwar.ru/285453-krizis-amerikanskih-vvs-ugrozhaet-strategicheskomu-jadernomu-sderzhivaniju.html
 
A couple of choice excerpts:

The US military is particularly concerned about the state of strategic nuclear carriers, which is directly related to the overall crisis in the aviation fleet. Problems with the maintenance and modernization of the fighter fleet directly impact the state of bomber aircraft, a key element of the nuclear triad. The age of the B-52, B-1, and B-2 strategic bombers exceeds all reasonable service life, and their combat readiness raises serious questions among military experts. The United States, which positions itself as a leader in nuclear deterrence, is demonstrating a systemic lag in carrier renewal, calling into question the reliability of its entire strategic potential.

~~~

The scale of the fighter fleet’s degradation becomes clear when compared to the end of the Cold War. At that time, the Air Force possessed more than 4,000 fighters, whereas today that number has fallen to approximately 2,000, and the number of combat aircraft is even lower. The average age of aircraft is 28 years, not eight, while pilots fly only six to eight hours per month instead of the 18 to 20 hours previously considered the norm. The A-10, F-15C, and F-16, developed back in the 1970s, are 40 to 32 years old, well beyond their intended service life.

I’ve banged on before now about NATO living off the accumulated fat of past investment projects. Such accumulation doesn’t last forever, and and the shortfall becomes even more acute when current projects are so colossally  expensive, so delayed in fulfilment that they come under budgetary scrutiny and review, often resulting in curtailment, if not outright cancellation.
 
The politicians “talk the talk” but what happens if the military can’t “walk the walk”?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 20:04 utc | 80

 psychohistorian | Jun 30 2026 19:49 utc | 79
 
Saw this report at RT yesterday, Why are a record number of American adults living with their parents? — RT World News, here are some major excerpts:
 

A record 25.2 million young American adults (about 33%) under 35 have returned to the family nest as the cost of living has become prohibitive….
 
One of the main reasons for Americans opting to live with their parents is the high price of home ownership. The median sales price for a single-family home in the US is approximately $434,300. Compare that to 1975 when the average price was under $40,000. That demonstrates how much the dollar has shrunk in terms of purchasing power….
 
According to the latest predictions from National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun, the national median home price is about to hit $1 million by 2050 – at precisely the time when millennials reach the traditional retirement age.

 
And then Trump said when asked about the housing bill that he wants to see housing prices increase, the clip was shown on today’s Haiphong/Wolff chat. IMO, the 25 million figure is too low. I went time travelling last night back to the Fall of 1980 when I was hired as an assistant manager for a small pizza restaurant chain in Central California at $1200/mo while paying $350/mo for rent. IMO, better times are to be found far to our West across the Pacific. I do disagree with the NAR projection since the Depression this nation will experience well before 2050 will drastically reduce housing and other prices.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 30 2026 20:22 utc | 81

arby@78: Burkina Faso Signs Agreement With Israel
 
https://x.com/VocalPolitics1/status/2071677850885693808
 
Corrected. I thought barflies were recently vigorously insisting Traore was a staunch ally of Putin. Not that there’s any contradiction.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 20:26 utc | 82

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 20:04 utc | 80
 
Interesting comment that is tangential to mine after it as the inflated costs of high-tech military equipment has made owning it unfeasible. Advanced radars for F-35s can’t be completed because the rare earth elements required for their manufacture can’t be acquired at any price, so the jets are delivered without them–but not at a discount. Perhaps it will become too costly to field a military and wage war. 

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 30 2026 20:32 utc | 83

And you repeat, day by day, like a rinocerous, the same wording: America is a outlaw State. And? 
 
America has always been an oulw State. 
 
In the time of the Spanish Black Legend, Spain did conquest Peru and Mexico and allegaly destroyed the original communities, but the fact is that the latin americans, descendents of those very bad conquerers, return to Spain. 
 
Where are your Indians? 
 
And, the thing is: everyone gonna be welcome. Not because my ancertors did  something wrong, but We, have no problem to see in our home-

Posted by: But | Jun 30 2026 20:35 utc | 84

@ karlof1 | Jun 30 2026 20:22 utc | 81
 
Your comment touches on another factor: except in those years immediately following a financial downturn, rents have increased faster than wages since the turn of the century. So forget houses! — apartments are becoming unaffordable for an increasing segment of the population, especially young ‘uns straight out of college who find themselves unable to land anything better than low-paying service sector or clerical jobs.
 
And of course some areas of the country are simply unaffordable for the vast majority if entry-level job seekers unless they’re crashing with the ‘rents (the apostrophe isn’t a typo) — or living in their cars.

Posted by: malenkov | Jun 30 2026 20:37 utc | 85

‘Shine Perishing Republic…’
 
Millions in US Face Cutoff of Food Aid, Healthcare
 
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/06/30/crpc-j30.html
 
“Nearly 5 million people in the United States have lost food stamp assistance, and 4 million have lost or will lose health insurance because of cuts implemented by state governments, driven by savage legislation enacted by Congress last year and signed into law by President Trump on July 4, 2025, under the name ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’.
 
One year later, Trump’s class war bill is having its intended effect: Millions of lower income working people are being denied access to food and medical care, while millionaires and billionaires enjoy record tax cuts as federal spending on war and death reaches new heights.
 
A study last year by University of Pennsylvania researchers found that, based on an earlier estimate of 3.2 million people losing SNAP benefits, there would be 93,000 premature deaths over the following 14 years.
 
If the same ratio applies to the much larger number that have actually been cut off food stamps, the projected toll of premature deaths would approach 140,000…”
 
Class war now. Eat the rich.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 20:47 utc | 86

I have not problem to see the people return, because we are the fucking same humans. How do you have the shame to say Alien when we are the same soul. 
 
The returning of the people is the consecuence of our bad things. It’s inevitable. And it’s a good thing. Let the people know that all of us are self consciouss humans in different places to be born. 
 
Just. America knowing doing good decides to be a false friend of the evidently bad things?
 
Fuck off, muricans. Let the trucks gonne over your mind and, please, let the World fucking itself.
 
But, please, take one of your fucking meds. Several meds, everyday until you die off your bad mood.

Posted by: But | Jun 30 2026 20:52 utc | 87

Burkina Faso Signs Agreement With Israel https://x.com/VocalPolitics1/status/2071677850885693808 Corrected. I thought barflies were recently vigorously insisting Traore was a staunch ally of Putin. Not that there’s any contradiction.
Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 20:26 utc | 82

 
I await a comment from PeterAU1. Putin at least has the plausible excuse of having to consider the wellbeing of the several million Russian citizens resident in the “shitty little Middle Eastern” entity.

Posted by: tucenz | Jun 30 2026 21:09 utc | 88

Perhaps it will become too costly to field a military and wage war.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 30 2026 20:32 utc | 83
 
I do wonder if the 1960s meme of “What if war was declared but nobody turned up?” should be replaced with “What if war was declared but nobody could afford it?”.
 
Apologies in advance if the following comes across as a stream of consciousness –
In some respects I see the current Western military and political “leadership” largely as a bunch of trust fund babies, squandering the inheritance bequeathed them from the Cold War v1.0, and it is only just dawning on them that the bequest isn’t unlimited, in turn causing some panic-driven responses, as what used to work in the relationships with the rest of the world is no longer effective.
 
The sudden enthusiasm for all things dronish seems to me as if the trust fund babies have found something that can, perhaps, delay the intrusion of the cold, hard reality that they aren’t as all-powerful, with limitless means, as they thought they were; a political-military Fentanyl that numbs the consequences of ignoring reality.
 
They were seduced by their own sweet talk, and by the sweet talk of Fukuyama-ist “End Of History ” sycophants; they won, so they thought, and all they needed to do to keep winning was invest in weaponry designed, primarily, to be aimed at turban-wearing sandal-hoppers wielding Kalashnikovs and Mosints; the F-35 seemed eminently suitable for such a mundane task, the yellow people wearing lampshade hats would never be a threat, once we own their factories, they can churn out all the consumer goods needed. The Russians had gone away, except for the ones we owned.
 
Life was sweet for the trust fund babies of NATO.
 
But all good things come to an end, and reality has come to collect some overdue rent.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 21:15 utc | 89

You are mostly a bunch of idiots who believes that there are different capacity of comprehension between different races. What a shame.
 
We are the same. Same humans. Of course, we have different capacities, but we, as humans, have the same “taste”.
 
Those who try to be better from the core, for an alleged origin, like these arians who think they are over the rest of us, gonna make it fault.
 
We are the same humans, always, But we can make our life better. If we are able to be better, we must do better for all the people who has problems to even be alive. 
The thing is in order to be a power (inside), you must be doing everyday your commitmet, because it’s clear that you never gonna save that child_ Stop judgment and be a friend

Posted by: But | Jun 30 2026 21:22 utc | 90

What is the solution between Jews and the rest of the World?
 
I don’t know, but this music is the product of a genious:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrLk4vdY28Q&list=RDYrLk4vdY28Q&start_radio=1 

Posted by: But | Jun 30 2026 21:27 utc | 91

You are mostly a bunch of idiots

Posted by: But | Jun 30 2026 21:22 utc | 90
 
Nothing to stop you applying for a refund of your admission fee…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 21:46 utc | 92

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 21:15 utc | 89
 
What if war was declared but nobody was allowed to make money off it? 
 
I love that ‘trust fund babies’ concept because the ‘trust fund’ was how folk respected the US after WW2, not just the cold war.  The latter was already the beginning of the end.
 
 

Posted by: juliania | Jun 30 2026 21:47 utc | 93

malenkov | Jun 30 2026 20:37 utc | 85
 
Yes, my comment was incomplete in a sense. I didn’t confess the condition of our children: One is very fortunate to have had a single-wide bought for her and placed on a lot in rural Georgia; another and his girl live with us; and my daughter and grandson can’t afford an apartment despite her having a very good job because the rents are too damned high. I know from personal experience about having to live in my car or living in a motel like my daughter does now while saving the money to obtain a better living space. I was very lucky that in the 1980s credit ratings weren’t used much as a criterion. My siblings chose not to have children, so they don’t face the same set of problems.  

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 30 2026 21:48 utc | 94

Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 21:15 utc | 89
 
Thanks for your reply. Richard Wolff continues to be “impolite” and tell it like it is as he did in today’s chat with Danny Haiphong. The tables were turned against those not part of the upper 70% in 1978 and some lost their position while others were fortunate and came out on the long side and were able to capitalize on what happened economically afterwards with the massive series of asset bubbles that were deliberately inflated to keep the top 15 then 10% in charge as the oligarchy tightened drastically. The very brutal Class War that’s been ongoing within the Empire seldom gets properly written about, although small episodes are detailed daily by media. Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World” recorded in 1990 was one excellent descriptor.
 
I’m sure we could both go on very long written rants about the shitshow, but most threads here direct people away from doing that. 

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 30 2026 22:05 utc | 95

‘We are the same. Same humans. Of course, we have different capacities, but we, as humans, have the same “taste”.’ – 90

A woman’s vagina may vary in ‘taste’ depending on what she has eaten and a multitude of other factors inlcuding of course the wondrous lunar cycle which also ‘turns the tides’ of the oceans..and of life itself.

It begins and ends with that gentlemen.

Peace be with you.

Posted by: Agonizing Reappraisal | Jun 30 2026 22:06 utc | 96

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 30 2026 20:47 utc | 86
 
Thank you for this post, John.

Posted by: juliania | Jun 30 2026 22:16 utc | 97

Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World” recorded in 1990 was one excellent descriptor.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 30 2026 22:05 utc | 95
 
Never been the biggest Neil Young fan, but “Ordinary People” is a decent 18 minutes long rant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaF_LBOzqKo

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 22:19 utc | 98

What if war was declared but nobody was allowed to make money off it?

Posted by: juliania | Jun 30 2026 21:47 utc | 93
 
True enough, it probably wouldn’t be declared in the first place…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 22:45 utc | 99

We could possibly amplify it further and ask:
What if war was declared but nobody was allowed to use it to cancel existing debts?

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 30 2026 22:47 utc | 100