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War On Iran: – U.S. Ratcheting Fails
A typical U.S. tactic is to ratchet things up in a conflict. This is done by continuously introducing additional hostile measures. Red lines get passed over bit by bit with the hope that each step is too tiny for the other side to really hit back. The war in Ukraine continues to be run like that.
Two days ago the U.S. attacked two Iranian boats which it had claimed were laying mines near Bandar Abbas. (There is zero evidence that Iran has laid ANY mines in the Strait.)
Iran did not allow for the ratchet to click. It immediately hit back.
Statement from CENTCOM on Recent Iranian Aggression – CENTCOM, May 28 2026
TAMPA, Fla. – At 10:17 p.m. ET on May 27, Iran launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait that was successfully intercepted by Kuwaiti forces.
“Successfully intercepted …”
Americans Injured in Iranian Missile Strike on Kuwaiti Air Base – Bloomberg, May 30 2026
An Iranian ballistic missile strike on a Kuwaiti air base within the past 24 hours caused minor injuries to several Americans and seriously damaged two MQ-9 Reaper strike drones, …
That sounds like a spot on hit.
Kuwaiti air defenses intercepted the Fateh-110 missile, but falling debris struck the Ali Al Salem air base, according to a person with direct knowledge of the attack, who requested anonymity to describe details that aren’t public.
“Falling debris …”. Like in ‘The missile was falling, then there was debris.’
Interpretation:
أَبُو عِرْفَانِ پارسی @A_E_P_1979 – 11:20 UTC · May 30, 2026
It seems Iran’s recent attack on Kuwait inflicted casualties on the Americans. This is significant for two reasons.
1. Americans are still stationed in the Gulf and do not want to leave.
2. Iran showed the Americans that, unlike before, attacking Iran “under the threshold” will not grant them immunity, and Iran is willing to escalate massively even at the cost of war. Creating a credibility for its threats.
This attack is very significant, in my opinion, because it will directly affect the negotiations and erase any delusions the Americans might have.
Well, hopefully.
I still expect another massive U.S. attack on Iran combined with an unrealistic attempt to gain (fire-)control over the Strait of Hormuz.
A post by Sakineh Bagoom
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Thank you, b. Thank you for keeping the bar open, and your dogged pursuit of truth.
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Iran was dragged, bound and gagged, kicking and screaming, and was forced to reclaim its past glory. Not since Cyrus has Iran had so much control over Hormuz.
With that, I’m back.
Thank you barflies for your supportive words, and well wishes. I internalized all that for strength to be able to withstand the onslaught that was wrought Iran. I’m doing OK, scarred by the experience, a little bomb-zadeh (shell shocked), but OK. My family gave 2 members to this cause.
I kept up with the bar all along. A friend with a government vpn downloaded the site every night and gave it to me on a stick.
War concentrates the mind; as such, I used this period for some reflection, and to think what have I said here, over the years, that was of any consequence. I lost quite a bit of posts in a bad back up situation, so, no memory of those. Bear with me, or skip the rest of this ( self promoting/aggrandizing) post.
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First some quotes.
An Afghan proverb: They’ve got the watches. We’ve got the time.
Let that sink in.
The horror, the horror. ~col. Kurtz
From the immovable Iranian wall to the empire: “mene mene tekel upharsin”
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The war on Iran was not a war, it was terrorism. When the empirentity [new word] hit 100,000+ civilian targets, and the opening move of the conflict was assassinations, and murder of elementary school girls, please, let’s call it for what it was: terrorism. Terrorism from two top terrorist states.
The definition of terrorism, according to Butcher of Gaza: violence against civilians for political purposes.
The damage as of end of March:
13,570 civilian sites, including 90,063 residential units, 307 medical facilities, and 760 schools. ~internet source
I said:
There is an old saying – terror is a tactic.
Now, compare tactic, and strategy.
<b>“Terror Does Not Win Wars, Strategy Does”</b>
Posted: Jun 30 2025 1:22 utc | 516
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b, asked: who said Iran wants the empire out of West Asia?
Was unable to raise my hand. It was me. It was me. I promise. Evidence below. See?
Afghanistan down, more to go.
Posted: Aug 1 2024 0:17 utc | 395
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As I’ve stated previously, Iran’s goal is to kick the empire out of west Asia. Afghanistan down, more to go.
Posted: Nov 29 2024 23:01 utc | 69
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On Iranian resolve.
<b>If you don’t know Imam Hussain, you don’t know Shia.</b>
Every day is Ashura, and every place is Karbala. [A call to jihad (vigilance)]
Posted: Aug 30 2024 17:51 utc | 114
Oh yeah, what did you think of Iranian civilians response to the rockets?
I think that’s the definition of standing your ground. A big middle finger ( equivalent Iranian version is thumbs up, called bilakh).
For my part, when the bridges, and power plants were threatened , I stood on pol-e-Khaju (Khaju bridge, ~1650), which happens to be my designated final resting place. I’d be there, whether wasted by bombs, or by spreading my ashes there after my death. That is the way.
[side note: Iran did a hero landing. You know, in the movies, when a superhero lands on the ground there is a circle around him/her with reverberations/shockwaves leading out? Well, Iran was just picked up and and slammed down, and we are all feeling the shockwaves.]
OK, below, I am trying to make a connection where one may not exist, but…
Arbaeen ( number 40 in Arabic) is the holiest of the holy holidays in Shia Iran. Celebrated every year, on the 40th day after Imam Hossein’s (pbuh) death, with shole-zard – a think soup/pudding made with rice and Saffron acts as yellow coloring agent– made en-mass – and given away as alms, with various ground cinnamon decorations on top of the serving vessel.
It was on arbaeen (lower ‘a,’ 40th) day of the fighting when the empire asked for a cease-fire.
Coincidence?
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On death of the empire
6 years on…
As is customary around this time of the year, I mourn and rejoice the death of the empire, and the rule of law.
Yes, it was six years ago, today, that the said death occurred. Autopsy later revealed the cause of death: nakedness (no AD) of the empire’s forces in west Asia. The date was confirmed as 8th, January 2020, the place: Ein-al-Asad, Iraq, the day the empire received a reply for the assassination of the good general. The rest is, as they say, history, and now, what we are left with, are the foul gases emanating from the dead-remains.
My favorite story from then is, when an empire’s soldier was interviewed on TV, and said: no one should be treated like this; not realizing that ‘this’ IS how he and his buddies treat others.
RIP the good general. RIP the inherited empire. RIP the rule of law.
Posted: Jan 8 2026 0:23 utc | 416
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | May 30 2026 19:41 utc | 37
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On importance of waterways
[ and no, there is no ooze in Hormuz. In Farsi it’s Hormoz, two short “o”s, for Zoroastrian god هرمز Hormoz (Ahura Mazda)].
Also, on pronunciation of the name of the country. Hint: think Italy. Same pronunciation rules apply. You don’t [well, excluding rednecks] say eye-taly, it’s ee-taly. It is ee-ron. You don’t say eye-talian, it’s ee-talian. NOT ee-rain-ian, ee-ron-ian.
Correct pronunciation is a modicum of respect – earned, for a country that’s endured so much, specially after the imposed war.
I said:
And the world economy? Forget about it. Previously I was of the mind that Iran would have to invade the Arabian peninsula to have control of Bab-al-Mandeb, but with allies like Ansar-allah, this is not necessary. Iran has control of two critical arteries: Bab-al-Mandeb, and Strait of Hormuz.
Conclusion:
The only way the war with Iran would end is the use of nukes by the empire. But opening that can of worms let’s “all” the worms to spill out.
Posted: Aug 24 2024 21:33 utc | 107
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Turns out I was wrong, it wasn’t Stalin. It was Khrushchev, who said it. Well, I did qualify it with the “I think,” to be on the safe side, didn’t I?
And yet, all the Sovietologists at the bar didn’t call me out on it. Go figure.
Here is the exact quote: “Berlin is the testicle of the West. When I want the West to scream, I squeeze on Berlin.”
I said:
I think it was Stalin that said: Berlin is the West’s testicles. Every time I need something, I squeeze a little.
Well think Strait of Hormuz. Two gigantic ones.
Posted: Jan 28 2026 20:01 utc | 141
[on a separate note: it is impossible that the empire did not know about the strait. The issue jumped into the headlines back in 2008, when the then transportation minister of the entity, the Iranian born Shaul Mofaz, in an interview, threatened Iran with attacks, and Iran mentioned closing the strait. Oil prices jumped to $147 that week]
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Decentralized Mosaic Doctrine
Ok, this now has a name, and we have an answer to the question posed at the end.
I said:
I maintain Iran has MAD capabilities, even without nukes. Even a decapitated Iran, via a nuclear bomb dropped in Tehran, has – I think it’s called dead-man’s-hand [switch]– plans to respond. Every war game played over successive years – at least since Millennium Challenge 2002 – have resulted in the empire losing. Are we to believe any blow by the empire will not end the empire? Are the empire’s managers hateful enough to allow that?
Posted: Oct 30 2024 3:06 utc | 197
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On missiles and drones (as air force) :
I said:
We live in an age where air, and naval supremacy has given way to missiles, and drones technology.
All the floaters off the coast of Venezuela, and all the bases and military assets in West Asia are moments away from destruction.
Posted: Oct 2 2025 15:10 utc | 23
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War crimes galore: “bombing sites for fun,” in his “little excursion,” and ending civilization. Dump, dump, dump — dump Trump. Dump Trump. Has a nice ring to it.
[as an aside; for all who said Iran is not doing enough for Palestine, and Lebanon: Is Iran doing enough now/yet?]
Oh, and, Iran conventionally, just defeated TWO nuclear-armed armed foes. Do you still think Iran needs nukes?
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On wars going underground
Here is the thing: WWI was fought on horse and buggies; WWII was fought from the skies, and atom; WWIII (some claim WWWIV if you count the cold one) will be fought under-ground. There is currently no method of beating an enemy that resides there.
Posted: Sep 19 2024 1:26 utc | 493
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | May 30 2026 19:43 utc | 38
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It was always the tail that wagged the dog. There was much confusion at the bar, and much hemming and hawing, until the waiter/orange-man pulled the chair out for the butcher of Gaza.
Oh, how could we overlook, when he sat at the head of the table in situation room, with orange-man to the side to order strikes on Iran.
I said:
Thanks for the report and the picture b. It tells a thousand words.
There was a debate at the bar recently as to whom drives the bus? The guy with the red tie, or blue?
In view of the picture above, and the prepared sheet that the orange man read from, any remaining doubts?
Posted: Feb 6 2025 7:31 utc | 300
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On Hezbollah after the fall of Assad.
Khezbollah: yes, Hezbollah is degraded, but not defeated. We saw how the ground invasion into Lebanon went. Hezbollah had to agree to a ceasefire because it is political entity as well as military one, and was sensitive to the collective punishment meted. As for re-supplies, new ratlines will be set up. People have to eat, and feed their families, and will do anything. So the cost of shipping may have gone up, but the supplies will still get through. Fall of Syria will not affect that.
Posted: Dec 17 2024 19:18 utc | 166
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On zion, and the death-cult:
Here is a question that I can’t find an answer for: where will all the zionist – and I don’t mean just the ones in the entity – go/do when there is no [more] Zion, and that moment is approaching?
As for nuclear bombs – there are a few things one cannot kill.
One cannot kill an idea.
One cannot kill a dream.
One cannot kill a civilization.
One cannot and will not kill the desire and the will to resist. As long as there is one person – one – that will resist, the whole edifice of nukes is rendered moot.
<b>One cannot kill One’s way to victory</b>
Posted: Oct 29 2024 2:36 utc | 254
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TINA, TINA, TINA
On necessity of negotiations. Even more apparent now that the war started.
A war that cannot be won militarily.
my conclusion: TINA Tom, TINA. The only way to solve this gordian knot is through negotiated settlement. There is no alternative. Here is why:
A shooting war on Iran would be too costly to contemplate. Some call it MAD, I call it balance of terror. Since the fall of Syria, many now claim that Iran is weak and should be attacked. <b> The only way Iran is weak, is if it can’t fire its missiles, and drones. Period. </b> That was the case before the fall of Syria, and is the case now.
Posted: Dec 17 2024 19:18 utc | 166
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On shaheed Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.
Say what you will about him, and as a human being he had his flaws, but, fighting for, leading, and dying for his country were not among those flaws. He lead the country for 47 years as president, and supreme leader.
Not many leaders can say – posthumously – that they died for their country. May he RIP.
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A few words about the Chosen:
With a rent-a-cop empire in their back pocket, how arrogant to think that the almighty needs help in determining when the end-times is. Chuckles.
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A question:
Sorry, couldn’t resist. Where are them real-men, now? They wanted to go to Tehran.
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Conclusions of this war, not necessarily in the order below:
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Defeat of the empirentity. 78/250 vs 7000
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Iran is now one of four major powers in the world. You know who the other three are.
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The empire is evicted from west Asia.
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Dissolution of NATO, approaching.
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East Asian countries are now dependent on Iran for their existence.
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Patience of a civilization at full display. Strategic patience and all.
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Iranian diaspora have proven to be an utter disgrace.
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All the empire’s mask have now effectively fallen off.
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Iran, went from controlling 3-5% of world oil supply, to 20-25%. 30%+ if one counts Bab-el-Mandeb.
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Leaving the rest of the numbers for other’s to fill in.
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Sakineh Bagoom
Posted by: Ornot | Mar 24 2026 21:11 utc | 219
Thanks Ornot. A simple and elegant reminder/mention of my moniker/handle. This meant more than you know, and added to my resolve to persevere. Thank you.
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | May 30 2026 19:47 utc | 40
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