Each day it is getting harder to cover the current war on Iran. Official U.S. comments and paths of actions are changing by the hour without any consistency.
Operation “Project Freedom”, i.e. U.S. protection for ships leaving the Persian Gulf, was announced on Sunday. It had failed by Monday. It was promoted (vid) by Warcrime Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday only to be, just five hour later, discarded by President Trump.
The whole point of the ‘Project’ may have been to get some negotiating advantage. After Iran countered the scheme it was immediately discarded.
Today’s major news so far was a new oil market scam launched by the White House.
Axios reporter Barak Ravid, an Israeli intelligence and White House asset who had announced the last seven of zero peace deals with Iran, promoted another one:
The White House believes it’s getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, according to two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.
The big picture: The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.
Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.
It is of course laughable to think that Iran would agree to any non-binding one page doodle from the White House. Still – oil futures dropped as soon as the markets opened.
The ‘news’ was obviously another attempt by White House insiders to fleece the markets:
According to our analysis, ~$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a “14-point” deal to end the war.
At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news.
This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.
At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is “close” to a “memorandum of understanding” to end the Iran War.
By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million.
Professor Mohammad Marandi, an unofficial spokesman for Tehran, called out (vid) the ‘news’ as the nonsense it is.
With the latest U.S. attempt to wrestle control over the Strait having failed, Iran announced its new Persian Gulf Strait Authority and its conditions for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz:
Ships intending to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must email info@PGSA.ir.
The most important points considered in the transit mechanism:
1) Priority of payment in Iran’s national currency
2) Issuance of guarantees in Iranian banks
3) If a country caused damage to Iran in the recent war, it must first pay the damages before obtaining a passage permit. Countries that have sanctioned Iran or blocked Iran’s money are not allowed passage.
4) The correct title “Persian Gulf” must be written in all documents.
5) Non-compliance with the above will result in seizure and a fine of 20% of the cargo value.
Meanwhile the Washington Post found that the damage Iran had caused to U.S. installations in the Gulf was much larger than the U.S. admitted.
Iran has hit far more U.S. military assets than reported, satellite images show (archived) – Washington Post
Imagery published by Iranian state-affiliated media and verified by The Post shows damage to at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites.
Iranian airstrikes have damaged or destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment, according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S. government or previously reported.
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It is no wonder that the Gulf states have lost their trust in U.S. protection. As the Wall Street Journal, who’s reporter resides in Dubai, reports (archived):
Ever since the war began on Feb. 28, Iranian leaders have frequently repeated a phrase, attributed to the deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, that “those who wrap themselves in America are naked.” The feeling in the U.A.E. and fellow Gulf monarchies after Tehran restarted the missile and drone strikes on Monday is that Mubarak might have had a point, diplomats and analysts say.
Iran struck the U.A.E.’s only functioning oil export port, Fujairah, causing a fire and injuring three people, and fired ballistic and cruise missiles at other Emirati targets. In total, the attacks involved 15 missiles and four drones.
Trump characterized the attack as minor, though it disrupted flights and forced the U.A.E. government to close schools for the rest of the week.
On Tuesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that, as far as Washington is concerned, “the cease-fire certainly holds.”
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The fear among friendly governments in Europe and Asia is that Trump—just as with the U.A.E.—might similarly choose to ignore attacks on their own territory by Russia or China or North Korea, if that suits him.Long-term, this attitude raises the question of whether U.S. bases around the world represent a security asset—or a liability—for the host nations.
“If you thought you were buying American loyalty, now you’re going to think that all that an American base does is make me a target, while the U.S. is just as likely to sell me down the river,” said retired Air Marshal Edward Stringer, the former head of operations at the British ministry of defense.
Trump, of course, had no other choice but to sit still. A renewed bombing campaign against Iran would cause much more damage to the Gulf states and the global economy than is already baked in.
If the current war has a positive aspect it is this: Outsourced sovereignty is a grand illusion. Anyone who had the delusion that the U.S. would defend anything not in its immediate interest will have to become sober. There is no advantage in having the U.S. as a “friend”. U.S. bases in ones country are nothing but potential targets.
Over the next years the Arab Gulf states will draw their consequences from this.
One hopes that European U.S. vassals will come to similar conclusions.