There is news, or maybe just learned rumors, about a prolongation of the ceasefire between USrael and Iran.
US and Iran close to extend ceasefire by 60 days, reports Financial Times – Gulf Today
The United States and Iran are close to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, two regional officials and a diplomat said on Saturday.
Iran signaled “narrowing differences” in negotiations with the US after Pakistan’s army chief held more talks in Tehran, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told journalists in India that “there’s been some progress made” and “there may be news later today.”
The officials and diplomat expressed hope that a final decision on the Pakistan-prepared draft could come within 48 hours as both sides review it.
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Iran state TV quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei as describing the draft as a “framework agreement” and adding: “We want this to include the main issues required for ending the imposed war and other issues of essential importance to us. Then, over a reasonable time span, between 30 to 60 days, details are discussed and ultimately a final agreement is reached.”
Conditions of a preliminary deal were published yesterday by former CNN journo Alex Marquart:
In the agreement, which would be signed in Islamabad, the terms the US has offered Iran to include:
- Immediate end to military operations including Lebanon and no more threats of force against each other.
- The MOU leads to negotiations on a “final deal” to officially end the war. Axios reported earlier that would be 30 days of talks, I heard it’s now longer and could be extended.
- Discussions of nuclear enrichment, removal of enriched material discussed later in the final deal. Iran commits in the MOU to never develop a nuclear weapon.
- A large economic reconstruction plan for Iran, to be developed by the US and its allies in the region. How it works exactly is part of the final deal.
- The US will unfreeze Iranian funds as talks progress.
- All US and UN sanctions – including secondary – to be lifted after a final deal which will lay out a schedule.
- Before a final deal and the lifting of sanctions, the US will issue waivers for Iranian oil exports, banking and other products/areas.
- US removes naval blockade and starts to redeploy forces after MOU is agreed to. Pre-war maritime traffic restored within 30 days. US forces removed from near Iran within a month of a final deal.
- The UN Security Council will eventually bless a final deal.
All of that seems too vague to me to ever come to a real agreement.
The most crucial points, some of which are extremely difficult to agree on, are all pushed down the road. There are way too few detailed commitments for either side:
- “The US will unfreeze Iranian funds as talks progress.” – How will this be done given that there are sanctions? How much money? When?
- “Pre-war maritime traffic restored within 30 days.” – This ain’t gonna happen. With or without Iranian tolls the shipowners, insurances and freight agents will all hold back until there is a real finished deal.
I strongly doubt that ANY deal would follow if such a 30 or 60 day memorandum of understanding about a ceasefire gets signed.
But pushing the can down the road is probably good for Iran. The U.S. can not sustain its siege and war readiness over another 60 days. It will have to recall carriers and move troops away from the Gulf. The danger of a renewed campaign against Iran would lessen.
It would likely also be good for Trump. The economic situation is getting scary. A prolonged confrontation could easily lead to a market crash. Taking the pressure off now would allow for some relaxation before the midterm campaign.
If there is no deal after the 30 or 60 day period Iran will still have control over the Strait.
The U.S. will have, as arch neocon Robert Kagan foresees, largely surrendered (archived):
For Trump to respond to this [Iranian] defiance by now calling for another 30 days of cease-fire and talks is a tacit admission of defeat. If he does launch a performative attack in the next few days, the Iranians will understand it for what it is. No one believes that he is going to resume a full-scale war a month from now. Among other reasons, with 30 more days to heal, rearm, and fill its coffers with tolls, Iran will be a more formidable adversary.
In 30 days, moreover, the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. …
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Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat. …
Kagan however seems to think that Israel will be the spoiler of any, even a preliminary, deal:
Will Israel go gentle into this good night? That is the wild card that may disrupt the financial markets’ dreams of a new stability in the Gulf. A stronger, richer, more influential Iran will mean new life for Hamas and Hezbollah. It will mean the end of the Abraham Accords, as the Gulf States will have to make their own peace with Tehran so that their economies can survive. Trump says that Netanyahu “will do whatever I want him to do.” But can Israel stand by while Iran replaces the United States as the arbiter of power in the region?
Most likely, the new normal in the Persian Gulf will be chronic instability and frequent disruptions in shipping. That’s what happens when the hegemon cedes hegemony.
Then again – the whole talk of a preliminary deal may just be another head fake before the new USraeli campaign against Iran begins.