The current situation around the Strait of Hormuz is vague. We currently have what Chas Freeman calls (vid) a “ceasefire with Israeli characteristics”. Both sides continue to fight but try to avoid a larger escalation.
Yesterday the U.S. stopped an empty Iranian tanker coming from the Indian Ocean which was heading towards an Iranian port. Iran responded by attacking three U.S. destroyer which seem to have intended to pass, east to west, through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf.
The destroyers were driven off under intense Iranian fire:
American officials described the Iranian onslaught on three destroyers as fiercer and more sustained than a separate Iranian barrage that two of the warships faced only days earlier.
The vessels came under an intense Iranian assault as swarms of Iranian fast-attack boats maneuvered close enough that American warships opened fire to keep them at bay, U.S. officials told CBS News under condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
Over several hours, the American warships and supporting aircraft mounted a layered defense, firing their five-inch naval guns and their close-in weapon systems known as CIWS, officials said. Small-caliber gun teams on deck also engaged the attacking boats. American Apache helicopters fired Hellfire missiles, and .50-caliber machine guns were fired from the decks of the ships, as additional aircraft provided support overhead.
Iranian forces also launched drones and missiles during the confrontation, the officials said. As of publication, no casualties or damage to the ships was reported.
(If you believe that last sentence please check out my offer of bridges for sale.)
The Iranian navy was clearly close enough to the destroyers to sink them. That it did not do so might well be a sign that it currently does not want to escalate.
After the attempt to seize Iran’s Uranium had failed with more than ten airplanes and helicopters lost in desert and after the failure of “Project Freedom” earlier this week this was the third tactical military operation attempt by the U.S. in which the Iranian side prevailed.
It confirms the recent ‘leaked’ assessment by the U.S. intelligence community that Iran can sustain this conflict (archived) and has sufficient reserves for many months, if not years, of continuous fighting:
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.
…
Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.
The assessment confirms the conclusion that Iran has -so far- won this war:
“What started as a war supposedly aimed at toppling the regime and dismantling its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities,” [Israeli analyst] Citrinowicz posted Wednesday on X, “may instead leave Iran’s regime stronger than before — empowered by sanctions relief, still retaining significant missile capabilities, continuing support for its proxies, and almost certainly preserving uranium enrichment on its own soil.”
The U.S. can not agree to that but it also does not have any reasonable ways or means to avoid that outcome.
Time is on the Iranian side. Its economy is used to work under sanctions and pressure. The U.S. (and global) economy can not do without the oil, gas, fertilizer and minerals which are currently blocked in the Persian Gulf. The U.S. can not win militarily. It is losing economically.
All the White House may still be able to do now is to make peace with Iran (i.e. conceding defeat) while selling that a victorious outcome.
On May 4th The White House twitter account posted this picture:
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The picture is a prefect example of the mental inabilities of the current White House inhabitant and his staff.
UNO is a shedding game:
.. players start with a hand of cards, and the object of the game is to be the first player to discard all cards from one’s hand.
Trump may well have all the cards. But the winner of the game is the first player who has left none. Those still holding UNO cards are losers.
Posting that picture may well have been an unconsciousness admission by Trump that he had lost the game to Iran.