Posted by: Steven Starr | Jun 1 2026 16:09 utc | 97  “Russian Early Warning satellites have holes in their coverage”
This has been long known.  The size of the holes have grown and shrunk over time as Russian early warning satellites died and were eventually replaced, sometimes with years between the two events.
Both sides need to look just about everywhere given SSBN capabilities.

Posted by: ed4 | Jun 1 2026 18:42 utc | 104

So this is what protestors in NY USA, the reservoir of fighting men and backbone of NATO, look like:
https://share.google/mifJOFMopW8o65X91
Their aid tent was full of riot gear, tactical supplies, snacks, energy drinks, hot meals (lasagna!) delivered on the hour, first aid supplies, and other “protester necessities.” 
 
Should the RF be worried about such fighting spirit? 
 
 

Posted by: frithguild | Jun 1 2026 20:50 utc | 106

Maybe they were also hoping that the Europeans would see sense – there’s no advantage to the Russians, having a hostile Europe on their Western borders.
…
The only reason I can see for holding back is long term: bad things come out of Europe when it’s in a mess so no advantage to the Russians in making that mess worse.
Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 1 2026 16:05 utc | 96

I was thinking somewhere along those lines – at no point did I think that an impoverished Europe would be conducive to a pan-Eurasian security architecture, nor did I think Russia did collective punishment like the US and Israel do on the Palestinians, Cuba, etc..

Posted by: joey_n | Jun 1 2026 23:40 utc | 108

Bloomberg is reporting that bank/finance officials told Putin that Russia can’t afford the war anymore

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 2 2026 0:47 utc | 110

 Ritter is frequently on the brink of “Russia should” and “Russia must” but most often he stays away from that.  
Posted by: Avtonom | Jun 1 2026 16:17 utc | 98
Lol. Ritter, as well as innumerable commentators, both east and west, pro Russia anti-Russia, far too frequently use the phrases …
“Russia should … Russia could… Russia must… Russia will…” 
The only commentators of any stripe I remotely trust are those who say — “Russia? We haven’t got a fucking clue what they’re going to do, and it’s certainly none of my armchair business to tell them what they should do”. Every commentator who is not the RUAF Chief of Armed Forces or Vladimir Putin himself is simply blowing hot air out of their arse.
 

Posted by: Gerhardt G. | Jun 2 2026 1:09 utc | 112

Putin held a meeting on measures to support the victims and the investigation of the terrorist attack in Starobilsk, which some barflies might want to know about. I’m not at all surprised by Putin’s personal concern and involvement as it’s SOP for him, something few are aware of. The reports are extensive as is support for the victims, families and community the extent of which will surprise many. When asked if the college should be preserved and rebuilt, Lugansk’s leader Leonid Pasechnik said the following:
 

Sergey Sergeyevich also asked me what we plan to do with this educational institution. Vladimir Vladimirovich, we must restore it, because I completely agree with you that the work of a teacher is the most difficult and, in my opinion, the most in-demand work, which should be respected and honored, because, as you say, it is not soldiers who fight on the battlefield, but teachers and clergymen. This is correct. Therefore, our children should receive good knowledge and skills to become real people and raise others like themselves.
 
If you don’t mind, I’ll give you a brief example. I talked to a girl who survived, and she told me about how the floor collapsed beneath her, how she fell to the bottom, how she dug herself out, how she cleared the debris between the fallen slabs, how she emerged into the light, how she was called, and how she was told where to go. What am I trying to say? She’s a very brave person. I told her, “I believe you will live a long and happy life. Your example should serve as inspiration for others. You are a real person, a real patriot.” And I think we should raise such patriots in Starobelsk as well. So if we rebuild it, that would be great. Thank you very much.

 
 
 It was a very moving read. The session then went private, and I’m sure many would like to know what was then said. Russian media is only reporting that the perpetrators will pay; one has already been sentenced in absentia to life in prison. 

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 2 2026 2:04 utc | 114

@tobias cole | Jun 1 2026 17:50 utc | 103
 
>>All RF tankers should be, if all possible, escorted by RF navy frigates, destroyers or CPV’s.
Well this can be part of a solution. In the English Channel etc, convoys escorted by a Russian frigate weren’t touched, despite British boasts that they would be. But long-term, this is a loser’s game: the Russian Navy just isn’t that big that it could escort everything indefinitely, plus presumably it has some other missions to carry out. One underestimates the West’s games at one’s peril: sure many seized ships get released a while later; but even so cargoes may get stolen, delivery schedules are missed, insurance costs go up–death by a thousand cuts. And the escorts are now just another Russian red line which, we have seen, will be tested: maybe place a mine in the path of a warship with plausible deniability, maybe sabotage in port. Why wouldn’t you get a little creative if you know there are no costs? And who’s going to escort the escorts if they don’t receive the order to shoot back for real?
 
Going forward, Russian maritime trade will be in a very rough place without a “You f-ed with the wrong guys,” and hence without deterrence through tit-for-tat. Their “no-limits partnership” with the world’s premier maritime trader hasn’t so far enabled them to coordinate something. On the other hand, Iran seems to have found a way to communicate “Your ships burn just as well,” and squeeze some leverage out of that.
 
I think I get Realpolitik, with paying the bills taking precedence over ideological purity. Only, right now with the Hormuz crisis, half the world is queuing up to beg for all of Russia’s output. But Russia just has to keep selling stuff to the countries blowing up their ships (or at least ships used by them). The continuing rationalizations for this clown show only confirm to me that both sides in the conflict have left the realm of the rational, so the strategy textbooks no longer offer us a guideline; we’ll just have to find out how it goes the hard way. Maybe the Russkies go by their own secret textbook that is light-years ahead of everything else; if so, surely Andrei Martyanov will happily sell me a copy once this is over. 🙂
 
—————
@Gerhardt G. | Jun 2 2026 1:09 utc | 112
 
>>Every commentator who is not the RUAF Chief of Armed Forces or Vladimir Putin himself is simply blowing hot air out of their arse.
Suuure, let’s just Trust the Leader; after all, only he has seen the True Intelligence. It worked with Bush Jr, it worked with Joe Biden, so let’s go for the trifecta. Then again, at least in my case you’re basically right: I no longer have any idea what the Kremlin is going to do–indeed, whether they’re going to do anything at all.
 
Look, nobody wants to hear it, but the headchoppers were on the run in Syria, until Putin’s 5D chess changed the trajectory towards defeat. The results are in.
 
—————-
@frithguild | Jun 1 2026 20:50 utc | 106
 
>>So this is what protestors in NY USA, the reservoir of fighting men and backbone of NATO, look like
 
Your point being? Got a soft spot for C-14 and Aidar style paramilitary formations in the streets? Russia still hasn’t overcome the latter’s fighting spirits. Western societies are being done in by apathy. If more people’d lift their woke asses off the couch, get out there, reflect on their station, and discuss things among themselves, a way forward might emerge eventually. Not holding my breath.
 

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 2 2026 2:52 utc | 116

@frithguild | Jun 2 2026 3:35 utc | 117
 
What I meant, and therefore should’ve said more clearly, is: “Would you prefer to see Ukraine-style brownshirts in the streets instead?” Look those folks in NYC are the product of consumer society, as am I; they are confused, as I am increasingly; they are woke, as I am–no wait, never gonna happen. At a minimum, their faces betray an awareness that something is amiss, and a desire to find out how things got this way.
 
Is this discussion even factual without you telling us what this crowd was protesting for/against? There is, at least was, this wonderful cartoon Harry from The Hague. One day, Harry bumped into a student protest; without hesitation he picked up a brick or two and joined the festivities. Happy as can be, he exclaimed “Hey, I didn’t know there’d be football today! Wait a moment, whom are we playing against?” 🙂
 
>>Vicky
In school, some of us may have heard “Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes”–beware Greeks bearing gifts. But when someone from Ms. Nudelman’s tribe was handing out cookies, educated people would’ve immediately called their children home and bolted the door, urging her to climb back on her broom pronto and go–well who cares, anywhere far away really. Very to the point, in that case those children would’ve still been alive in 2026.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 2 2026 4:28 utc | 118

@English Outsider | Jun 1 2026 16:05 utc | 96
@joey_n | Jun 1 2026 23:40 utc | 108
 
So the previous week it was “Why escalate now, better let Europe collapse onto itself.” But this week it is “A fractured, angry Europe next door looks like a security risk; better sell them an energy bail-out to stave off the worst.”
 
Last month it was “Touch Zelensky? You must be crazy; he’s Russia’s best ally, the gift that keeps on giving.” But this month it is “Why sacrifice good Russian boys in taking Kiev. Let NABU go after Ze instead; once they’ve brought him down, Good Things will happen for sure.”
 
So which is it? These are all rationalizations. Took me a long while to see through them, but now I believe I do. At least if you count from since RuAF started encircling Konstantinovka, that one place is taking ~ a year. Isn’t the evidence that just taking Donbas the old-fashioned way would still be a long, costly slog. Probably Russia can just about do it–realizing a major objective of theirs, which I don’t denigrate. And then? You now stand exposed that your threat to take East-of-Dniepr, Kiev, plus Odessa is a bluff–the tank is empty. Maybe Moscow is right to look for a fudge.
 
—————————
@karlof1 | Jun 2 2026 2:04 utc | 114
 
>>Putin’s personal concern and involvement
Our Queen Máxima would’ve done likewise; both her and Putin do these events well. And calling it a bit of a ritual is not meant to demean it: the human touch is an integral aspect of leadership. Difference is that for Max, it’s her whole job apart from looking after the kids. The other fella leads a self-proclaimed military power; he has called the Maidan junta a Nazi regime; he is historically literate. So he doesn’t get to feign surprise when said regime actually does Nazi stuff. And he has to account for his choices of insisting that said regime must stay untouched and made whole, enticed to return back into the Russian family.
 
It’s been 4 1/2 years; on the eve of Starobelsk, there should have been no Nazi regime in Kiev. Eliminate them, bribe Trump to do it, admit you misdiagnosed–but take real responsibility either way. What is interesting to me, is that “business as usual” also prevailed with VVP when it was his own hide, and apparently his family’s, on the line during the Valdai attack. Not a cliche strongman, this Vlad. Deeper psychology at work; odds are he sincerely believes he’s got this all figured out. Then again, so did Gen. Milley during the ’23 Counteroffensive. We will see.
 
>>sentenced in absentia to life in prison. 
That’ll teach them! 🙂 Look, Moscow had the Azov military leadership in their hands (plus, rumors continue to insist, some NATO bigwigs who were playing Azov games together with the Azov goons, every step of the way). They wasted no time in letting them go home free. This posturing is no longer credible, and both sides know it. Is Martyanov still hallucinating that, any day now, VdL and Macron will be in the dock in Moscow, Serious Business, scout’s honor? How did “Lock her up” work out for Trump?

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 2 2026 6:13 utc | 120

When will you idiots see that bagels putin and Zelensky just keep killing white Slavs while giving you a theater that solves nothing. While Israel can kill world leaders in a matter of days , Jew Putin made Jew Zelensky billionaire.

Posted by: Petr | Jun 2 2026 7:35 utc | 122

Jzo | Jun 2 2026 8:49 utc | 124
 
Yes, msm says the opposite as always. They lack imagination and brain, it’s much easier to take real events and turn them upside down. Also that type of msm is what Ukr sees and nothing else, these stories are not for Nato population alone. Brainwashing at 300%

Posted by: rk | Jun 2 2026 9:44 utc | 124

Last night (local time), another air-raid hit 404. Mostly production and logistic, few “command posts”. Interception rate feels like declining or there are more videos of actual impacts available nowadays , who knows ?
Is this more systematic campaign following the last week strike remain to be confirmed. We’ll see next week if it’s a new trend. Anyway it seems the kokhols might have triggered some people in Russia with their strikes. The more I think about it, the more I see Palantir assisted targeting only leading to more motivated retaliations by the target but hey : What was to be awaited from giving the targeting task to something that can’t feel human emotions , like an über-autistic boss and his army of computers ?
We’ll see if this have an effect on the frontlines and drones strikes in the coming weeks ; logistic impairing ever have a latency.

Posted by: Savonarole | Jun 2 2026 11:19 utc | 126

The list of targets hit above indicates Moscow is figuring war will last at least through winter 26/27

Posted by: Exile | Jun 2 2026 11:49 utc | 128

The Fire Point “Flamingo” missile looks like a V1?

Posted by: The Far Side | Jun 2 2026 13:24 utc | 130

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 2 2026 12:59 utc | 130
 
Ma Laoshi – Mr Starr (Posted by: Steven Starr | Jun 1 2026 16:09 utc | 98)  points out the danger resulting from our attacking Russian early warning radar installations, nuclear bombers and command centres.  If the Valdai attack was the last.  These actions, he explains, heighten the tension and thus make accidents more likely.
 
Makes no odds to deterrence.  Were there a first strike on Russia, and even if it wiped out all fixed installations and command centres, there are still mobile launchers, subs and “dead hand” arrangements that would retaliate.  So I don’t believe the Americans could launch a first strike even though they and the Europeans have lost this one big.  Or bigly, as your current Great Leader would say.
 
More worrying is the possibility of  dirty bombs and the possibility of sabotaging NPP’s.  Shoigu was phoning around Lloyd Austin and his European equivalents to warn them of the former.  On the latter, we’ve seen and are still seeing attacks on NPP’s.  Some at least not possible without Washington’s assistance.
 
The trouble with Washington is that it’s a muddle of competing factions rather than a coherent administration with firm lines of command.  You’ll recollect the Tabqa dam incident.  One faction was able to over-ride its placing on a no-strike list by the other.  So too in Ukraine.   The CIA’s been running wild in Ukraine since 2014 and before and has there the perfect cover of being able to blame whatever happens on the extremists.   All this documented by the NYT and WAPO so we can’t dismiss it as Russian propaganda.   The sooner the Russians get on with neutralising remnant Ukraine so it can’t be used both as a base and as a pretext for irresponsible actions the better!
 
I’ve found it better not to try one’s hand at predicting what the Russians’ll do next.  The only prediction I’ve ventured on – I reckoned in ’22 that the war would be over in a year – was way out.  But we can look at what they’ve done so far and why.  Here, you, possibly most of “b’s” readers with you,  and I, have a disagreement.
 
I reckoned from early on that the Russians had out-thought us on strategy and had conducted a quite brilliant campaign from the start.  You hold, I think, a different view.  Maybe, if “b” can put up with us, this is something that could be looked at in detail at some time.  Not right now because there’s too much happening but preferably before memories fade and sources go dead.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 2 2026 14:25 utc | 132

Slavygrad reports that Buda says (interview) that Zely has ordered that the war shall be concluded by Winter. Seems a big ask.

Posted by: jared | Jun 2 2026 15:21 utc | 134

Meanwhile the nazi’s are not happy about the introduction of furin blood to their ideoligical scheme. Do those people know that they are future conscripts, I wonder.

Posted by: jared | Jun 2 2026 15:27 utc | 136

This business of people using tents as a claim on personal space while using Metro stations as shelters from missile attacks is causing quite a fuss. A petition has been launched, calling for the practice to be made illegal:

“The Hunger Games”: Kyiv residents complain about tents in the subway during shelling – a petition was created to ban it

https://life.pravda.com.ua/society/kiyani-zaklikali-zaboroniti-nameti-v-metro-peticiya-315315/

On the night of June 2, during another massive Russian attack , a record number of people were at subway stations in Kyiv – more than 41 thousand.
 
In the morning, residents of the capital began to massively complain on social networks about the allegedly too large area occupied by tents and other bulky things at the stations.
 
Thus, photographer Anna Sevostyanova called the struggle for places in the subway that night “hunger games” and compared the occupancy of the station with “minibuses during rush hour.”

~~~

User Yulia was also outraged by the presence of tents in the subway. The girl shared that on the night of June 2 she could not find a place for herself even in the aisle. Later, she and the company managed to stay on blankets near the tent, when suddenly they heard comments from there – people were indignant at the new “neighbors” nearby.

~~~

Military and journalist Oleksandr Rudomanov estimated that on the night of June 2,   there were about 890 people at each subway station . Therefore, 1.5 m² of space was allocated to each.
 
He suggested that under such conditions it was difficult to avoid conflicts altogether, but the main problem is still the lack of a network of spacious storage facilities in the capital.
 
“Are there other shelters in Kyiv as reliable and spacious as the metro? I think not. Have new shelters been built where so many people can safely stay at the same time? Also not. And in general, almost no new shelters are built,” Rudomanov said.

~~~

After the attack on June 2, the Kyiv Metro  urged to use space rationally and not bring bulky things.
 
“In addition, it is important to provide evacuation routes. In the event of an emergency, the passage must remain open for the safe and prompt movement of people.”

Seeing various photos it looks like a disaster waiting to happen. It will only take someone being careless with a flame or other heat source, there’s a lot of flammable material, fanned by air currents through tunnels and shafts and a repeat of the 1987 Kings Cross fire in London could easily occur.
 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 2 2026 15:58 utc | 138

re: English Outsider | Jun 2 2026 14:25 utc | 133
You wrote:  “Mr Starr (Posted by: Steven Starr | Jun 1 2026 16:09 utc | 98)  points out the danger resulting from our attacking Russian early warning radar installations, nuclear bombers and command centres.  If the Valdai attack was the last.  These actions, he explains, heighten the tension and thus make accidents more likely. Makes no odds to deterrence.  Were there a first strike on Russia, and even if it wiped out all fixed installations and command centres, there are still mobile launchers, subs and “dead hand” arrangements that would retaliate.  So I don’t believe the Americans could launch a first strike even though they and the Europeans have lost this one big.  Or bigly, as your current Great Leader would say.”
You are conflating the concept of nuclear deterrence with the danger of accidental nuclear war (based on the danger of a false warning of nuclear attack believed to be true that leads to a “retaliatory” nuclear strike against the perceived attacker). 
Because the US and Russia each continue to keep about 1000 strategic nuclear warheads at launch-ready status, this makes accidental nuclear war a possibility (warheads on ICBMs can be launched in a few minutes, warheads on SLBMs at hard alert status in less than 15 minutes).  One of the most likely causes of an unintended nuclear war is “Launch on Warning” (LoW) – the policy of launching a retaliatory nuclear strike while the opponent’s missiles or warheads are believed to be in flight, but before any detonation from the perceived attack has occurred. 
Nuclear weapon states justify their possession of nuclear arsenals on the concept of nuclear deterrence —  that the threat of unacceptable nuclear retaliation created by their arsenals will prevent any attack on their nations.  But this does not preclude the possibility of an accidental nuclear war created by the inherent danger of keeping nuclear-armed missiles at launch-ready status. 
Please note that a single failure of nuclear deterrence can lead to a nuclear holocaust, and accidental nuclear war can create such a failure.  
Nuclear deterrence is an inherently flawed concept that puts all of humanity in danger. I participated in a conference at the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation in 2011 that created the Santa Barbara Declaration, which called for nations to reject nuclear deterrence.  I list below the primary conclusions of the Declaration:
Nuclear deterrence has numerous major problems:  

1. Its power to protect is a dangerous fabrication. The threat or use of nuclear weapons provides no protection against an attack.
2. It assumes rational leaders, but there can be irrational or paranoid leaders on any side of a conflict.
3. Threatening or committing mass murder with nuclear weapons is illegal and criminal.  It violates fundamental legal precepts of domestic and international law, threatening the indiscriminate slaughter of innocent people.
4. It is deeply immoral for the same reasons it is illegal: it threatens indiscriminate and grossly disproportionate death and destruction.
5. It diverts human and economic resources desperately needed to meet basic human needs around the world.  Globally, approximately $100 billion is spent annually on nuclear forces.
6. It has no effect against non-state extremists, who govern no territory or population.
7. It is vulnerable to cyber attack, sabotage, and human or technical error, which could result in a nuclear strike.
8. It sets an example for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons for their own nuclear deterrent force.

Posted by: Steven Starr | Jun 2 2026 17:02 utc | 140

Apologies if this has already been posted, but here’s some interesting analysis that ought to silence the NAFO wishcasting trolls. It’s based on absurd Ukie propaganda numbers, so take it for what it is. TLDR summary: Ukraine collapses by next spring at the absolute latest. 
https://multipolaritypod.substack.com/p/the-formula-developed-by-a-long-dead?triedRedirect=true

Posted by: AverageJoe | Jun 2 2026 18:19 utc | 142

All RF tankers should be, if all possible, escorted by RF navy frigates, destroyers or CPV’s. The NATO piracy will continue unless they institute a convoy system, because its easy to pick off a individual tankers.
Posted by: tobias cole | Jun 1 2026 17:50 utc | 104
Just put some Spetsnaz guys or Marines on the tankers armed to the teeth, then we would see how brave those hijackers are.

Posted by: Englishman | Jun 2 2026 19:15 utc | 144

Posted by: Stonebird | Jun 2 2026 19:00 utc | 144
 
You mention Peter Thiel as one capitalist behind the drone attack, another is Elon Musk. Both names are discussed in Russian media. My first thoughts were: “Russia is certainly capable of eliminating any single person. But capitalists don’t kill capitalists.” (The latter is a truth since at least WW1 times.) Anyway, this being discussed in Russia and both popular and expert opinions getting more radical, perhaps we get to see some more world-famous Novichok action 🙂 A man can dream.
 
A friend suggested to me that assassinating someone of Thiel/Musk caliber is akin to a nuclear assault. I’m not sure because the other capitalists probably don’t want to die in nuclear WW3 either. In any case, it’s about time these people learn the fear of god / mortality some time soon. Fun reminder that Thiel couldn’t answer when asked about Luigi Mangione’s killing of the UnitedHealthCare CEO. Random link, it has “Antichrist Peter Thiel”: https://www.thewrap.com/peter-thiel-ceo-assassin-luigi-mangione-triggering/

Posted by: Konami | Jun 2 2026 19:22 utc | 146

Konami | Jun 2 2026 19:22 utc | 147
 
According to Thiel, (in the clip) Mild Aspergers syndrone is the IN thing for creatives/billionaires/Assange/or Greta Thunberg..
Probably targeted assasinations are underestimated, as according to “billionaire” theory, any person can be replaced by another more cheaply. ho hum, or by a robot?
 
 
What can I say? empty the clinics, our salvation could be found in them.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jun 2 2026 19:39 utc | 148

Fun reminder that Thiel couldn’t answer when asked about Luigi Mangione’s killing of the UnitedHealthCare CEO. Random link, it has “Antichrist Peter Thiel”: https://www.thewrap.com/peter-thiel-ceo-assassin-luigi-mangione-triggering/
Posted by: Konami | Jun 2 2026 19:22 utc | 147

 
A nice one. Individual “direct action” has been popular in waves throughout modern history and I can’t say I’m against it … The price however is high. I wouldn’t do it myself but I do admire those who do.

Posted by: Avtonom | Jun 2 2026 19:41 utc | 150

Posted by: AverageJoe | Jun 2 2026 18:19 utc | 143   Ukraine collapses by next spring at the absolute latest. 
Well, we’ll see how things go over the next 11 months.   

Posted by: ed4 | Jun 2 2026 20:47 utc | 152

RF does not need to give NATO any extra time to ramp up production of drones and munitions and other weapons……WTH.
 
The longer this war continues the more space you give for the NATO plus group get their military industrial base back in order.
 
Don’t give them the opportunity – get the job done, crush the UAF resistance, capture Odessa and all the Black Sea ports, and secure the land bridge to Transnistria.
 
Time is of the essence, delay if fatal.

Posted by: tobias cole | Jun 2 2026 21:29 utc | 154

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2026/06/ukraine-robots-winning/413902/?oref=d1-featured-river-secondary
From a mainstream, supposedly credible source: Ukraine is winning.  How interesting…

Posted by: Eighthman | Jun 2 2026 21:40 utc | 156

***What I meant, and therefore should’ve said more clearly, is: “Would you prefer to see Ukraine-style brownshirts in the streets instead?” Look those folks in NYC are the product of consumer society, as am I; they are confused, as I am increasingly; they are woke, as I am–no wait, never gonna happen.***
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 2 2026 4:28 utc | 119
 
The photo I linked is to an anti ICE protest (Summer camp) in  Newark NJ (Hell is like Newark). The men depicted have vacuous expressions witht a Lexapro benzidiazapine haze and sugar/carbohydrate physiques (Barley ration was particularly shameful to a Roman soldier), with all seeming to be looking for some meaning in life in a world dominated by celebrated feminine impulses to emasculate, while whispering under their breath “this ain’t it.” I can almost cry for these dudes. But what i think is unimportant.
 
What i am looking to gage is what does an Eastern europe western Asia set of eyes when they see this pathetic display? You ask whether i want an Adair C-14 like presence on the Passauc River. Is that what you see in these dudes? What I see is is young men not capable of fighting with their feminine commanders incapable of understanding why not. 

Posted by: frithguild | Jun 2 2026 23:01 utc | 158

Seems there has been a bit of a neo USAID regime style dust up that hasn’t reached US media one iota:
Putin Doesn’t Benefit From The Volhynia Genocide Dispute
https://open.substack.com/pub/korybko/p/will-putin-benefit-from-the-volhynia?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=2zfp1k
 
Some cracking in the pro Ukraine coalition it seems. 

Posted by: frithguild | Jun 2 2026 23:12 utc | 160

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 2 2026 21:02 utc | 154  “ Dr Powell’s model estimates Ukrainian collapse by early Spring next year (nine months from mid-May 2026) at the outside”  ” This would mean substantially accelerated territorial gains for Russia and ultimate victory.”
.
I took it to mean that it would be up to 9 months from May 15, which would be March 15th?   So toss in 2 extra months, a conservative view – in 11 months.
.
“Dr Powell estimates window for this tipping point is 3-6 months from now (July-September 2026)”
.
If you want the other end we should see things by as soon as July.  But July (15th) is only 2 months from May 15.   I see this as unlikely.  But will be happy review on July 15th.  Note that September 15 is 4 months from May 15.   
.
I don’t think this is true:  “Yet Dr Powell has reached what should be a stunning conclusion for western policymakers.”   I think people who know how that modeling works – will take a look and pretty much dismiss his work.  Look here: Posted by: Ed2 | Jul 25 2023 4:41 utc | 120  You might also look into some posts by James M, back in 2023, as I think he mentioned he worked at on of the places that developed these models.  Earlier : Posted by: Outraged | Dec 3 2022 5:33 utc | 243 talked a bit about this stuff.  There are others from time to time.
 
 

Posted by: ed4 | Jun 3 2026 1:36 utc | 162

It seems pretty clear lots of Russia doesn’t have much of a defense against drones.  It’s just too big.
Posted by: ed4 | Jun 3 2026 1:39 utc | 164
 
Yes but it does shoot down most all of them down. Ukraine sends over 100 a night and perhaps 1-3 hit something every 2-4 nights. At least that is what it seems to me as I haven’t been taking notes or a tally but it is usually just one or a very small number out of ~115 that get their target and it seems some nights none of them do.

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 3 2026 2:27 utc | 164

Posted by: Lesjeuxsontfaits | Jun 3 2026 6:21 utc | 166
 
China has also halted its gasoline and diesel exports. Yet they are not being bombed.
 
And this isn’t the first time Russia has suspended exports, most often diesel only.
The US is expected to suspend diesel exports soon as well.
 
Perhaps you should look for explanations for these decisions elsewhere than in Ukraine’s “successes”?

Posted by: Sebgo | Jun 3 2026 6:58 utc | 166

St. Petersburg attacked via Baltic states before SPIEF opening: 
t.me/intelslava/88399
t.me/Slavyangrad/165623
 
Fun fact: US is coming to SPIEF this year. Perfect alibi.

Posted by: rk | Jun 3 2026 7:40 utc | 168

The Russian leadership deserve many more love taps until they start doing their jobs.
 
Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 3 2026 8:42 utc | 170
 
How unexpected, a slav hating westoid and nafotard in disguise wants more russians to die just because the actions of russian leadership don’t cater to his piss poor armchair warlord fantasies. Kindly go fuck yourself.

Posted by: pinche | Jun 3 2026 8:55 utc | 170

Military summary:
 
-RUAF massive attack on Ukraine, 50 targets hit across the country (much more than usual, AFU has ability to only defend properly 5 targets at any one time)
-AFU seems to have tight control of Taganrog-Melitopol road with AI assisted drones
-Large amount of RUAF fuel trucks concentrated at the western part of Kerch strait, AFU may try to attack these with drones, no doubt recon provided by Nato AWACS drones or aircraft in the Black sea
-RUAF is overrunning Konstantinovka, AFU troops are reported running away north-west toward Druzhovka
-RUAF bombed and destroyed a bridge in center Druzhovka, complicating AFU logistic over SE-NW running river
-RUAF also destroyed another bridge just SE of Druzhovka, adding complication for AFU

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2026 9:45 utc | 172

Re: Baltic Fascists
in the mid 1970s my University hosted a Captive Nations Week , complete with various parlaments in exile representing their respective captive nations. Turned out quite a few of the MPs had been MPs since the early 1940s – die hard fascists. 
 
 

Posted by: Exile | Jun 3 2026 10:21 utc | 174

The latest AFU attack on St. Petersburg reportedly hit Saint Petersburg oil terminal, a container judging by black smoke. The drones came through the middle of gulf of Finland, and were reported to have transited through or launched from Estonia. 
 
A Boiky class frigate in drydock was also claimed to have been hit.
 
https://x.com/camille_moscow/status/2062063689172214104

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2026 10:58 utc | 176

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2026 10:58 utc | 177
Air raid alerts went out across Russia that covered areas between Ukraine and St. Petersburg.  

Posted by: ed4 | Jun 3 2026 11:05 utc | 178

@180
 
Just saying AFU launching drones from N Ukraine doesn’t exclude that they could also launch drones from Estonia.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2026 11:10 utc | 180

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 3 2026 11:58 utc | 182
 
By your description it is Nato and the oligarchs running it who are running or dictating the escalation ladder.
 
’23 counter-offensive.
’24 Kursk offensive.
’25-26 drone offensive – now AI vision/starlink driven autonomous drones hitting rear area roads, targets, and offensive on gas/oil infrastructure.
 
One has to wonder what could Russia do to get out of the enemy dictated escalation ladder? It could be an escalation of their own.
 
Hit LNG carriers in the Atlantic (this can be done with plausible deniability).
Hit LNG facilities in western/northern Europe and UK.
Hit North Sea oil, gas platforms, pipelines on the sea floor (this can be done with plausible deniability).
Copy NATO’s tactics of attacking Russia through drones launched from sea containers on freight ships.
Copy NATO’s tactic of attempting to blow up ports by installing magnetic mines on tanker and cargo ships (this can be done with plausible deniability). Bl0wing up LNG pumps and storages in Rotterdam, Kiel or Rostock would be very nice.
 
This stuff is something that could cause even more real pain to EU/Nato/UK, besides rotting away on their own.
 
Otherwise you just leave escalation pace to NATO’s oligarchs.
 
Russia has nukes. It has power to escalate in a similar way how NATO escalated and attacked it without retaliation.
 
NATOs biggest escalation is, as you say, ‘activating’ Finland and Baltics. This should not deter or scare Russia from doing some sort of attacks on western industrial or logistic targets that directly or indirectly contribute to supporting Ukraine.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2026 12:17 utc | 182

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2026 11:10 utc | 181  “Just saying AFU launching drones from N Ukraine doesn’t exclude that they could also launch drones from Estonia.”
Agree that it is possible.  Also from a ship at sea.

Posted by: ed4 | Jun 3 2026 12:24 utc | 184

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Jun 2 2026 22:01 utc | 158 “Winning:“
.
https://x.com/i/status/2062104457240830372
.
^ also covers Russian ability to defend everything.  They can’t, it’s just too big.  As to Ukraine, as you more or less  pointed out, there isn’t much left.
 
 

Posted by: ed4 | Jun 3 2026 12:30 utc | 186

@188,
The time to adopt the Iran strategy should have been started a long time ago. Maybe they are afraid to do more. Maybe they are afraid to be more proactive, instead of reacting only to the things that NATO and it’s merc army in UKR are doing. At the same time, their own civilians are dying daily to drones, which will undermine the morale even further. The bus & the school destroyed in recent days is an example of that.
A change of strategy should be done before its too late for them (Russia).

Posted by: JamesBond | Jun 3 2026 12:48 utc | 188

The retards are hitting near Leningrad right before the SPIEF … they really do like being spanked it seems.
Posted by: Savonarole

Why? The people who are responsible for the drone attacks won’t get spanked.  At best, a few subordinates will —and even that is unlikely. Russia is, after all, so kind as to announce its attacks 48 hours in advance.
It would need to be automated. If a bus or a marketplace is attacked in Russia, the Ukrainian presidential palace would automatically be nuked.
For every Russian civilian on whom even a single hair is harmed, the villa of a Ukrainian oligarch will be razed to the ground.
For every drop of blood shed by a Russian child, 1,000 Azov pigs will burn.
It is actually quite simple.
And if Mark Rutte opens his faggot mouth—nuke the NATO HQ in Brussels. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
 

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 3 2026 13:34 utc | 190

The next time Zelenskyy flies to Berlin, London or Paris to beg for money—shoot his damn filthy plane out of the sky.

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 3 2026 13:39 utc | 192

Posted by: Apollyon | Jun 3 2026 13:39 utc | 194
 
If EU leaders or EU state leaders would all gather in Kiev and Russia whacked them all along with Zelensky, Nato wouldn’t do anything. As if they didn’t already whack Putin many times before.
 
Russia could do whatever it wants in Ukraine at this point. No one in the west, even reading MSM cares about Ukraine anymore.
 
This applies both ways. No one cares of the terrorist attacks done by Ukraine and no one cares if EU politicians get killed in Ukraine if Russia decides to hit them.
 
So it’s free-for-all without consequences. It’s up to Russia to decide its future, IMO they could go nearly Gaza on western Ukrainian cities. Who cares….

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 3 2026 13:46 utc | 194

AFU casualties a round 1.300 (last days a bit higher but 1.300s)
 
https://tass.com/politics/2140901
 
Still no marat this month so haven’t updated daily

Posted by: Newbie | Jun 3 2026 13:57 utc | 196

@unimperator | Jun 3 2026 12:17 utc | 184
 

By your description it is Nato and the oligarchs running it who are running or dictating the escalation ladder.

For starters, I speak without any claim to authority. I’m at best picking things up on the fly, though I’m probably not the only one here. (Oh well, given enough coffee, I guess I could still handle the math of game theory.) But to continue where we left off: an overly materialistic, “scientific” approach seems to conclude that Russia has escalation control in Ukraine, just by counting the toys. But if this belief is fact, then why doesn’t Moscow indeed control the escalation? (Most common answer: “You’re not supposed to talk that way.”) Isn’t escalation control deeply political as well? Putin, neoliberal to the core, likes business to be smooth and predictable, so he offers the same to his partners: “Russia just won’t touch Europe, the whole idea is absurd.” Once that message sticks, how scary is the Bear going forward?
 
I think I started noticing something in Syria: whenever Russia got humiliated, invariably their Caspian flotilla would pop off a couple Kalibrs over huge distances at cheap jihadi trash which Russia could’ve just bombed. “See? We could touch the principals if we really wanted.” But already the 2nd time, these fireworks only undermined the message sent by the first strike. No new capability was demonstrated–only the fact that Russia did not want.
 

’24 Kursk offensive.

Key! IIRC, establishing a “Northern buffer zone” was Shoigu’s stated priority. Sounded like an order to me, though an officer might want to comment on that. And what did we get? An interminable border skirmish in Vovchansk, which in comparison to the set task looked like mostly a sop for domestic consumption. Russia only started fighting properly in the North, once Ukraine took the initiative to make them–almost as if out of boredom. Meanwhile, with strikes now being long-range as a matter of course, the whole concept of a buffer zone anywhere in Ukraine looks a bit quaint already; maybe you indeed have to clean up the entire place.
 
Whatever people may think of me, I have deep roots in Europe; I want those ingrates to be straightened out, not perish. What annoys and indeed worries me most, is that so much of the Russian discussion is a false choice between “Do nothing, 5D chess!” and “Nukes must fly.” Why are we even debating the ultimate measure? Because Azov supremo Prokopenko just had to be set free; because nobody in Ukraine has been punished for either Crocus City Hall or their nuclear terrorism; because the Russian Navy apparently forgot how to seize a ship, which the French Navy manages all the time. In other words, because in their sober moments, the Kremlin may realize they’re a bit of a joke at times. The strategic acumen of Russian elites is just another thing which is stated; assumed; rarely proven.
 
Just today, there was a drone strike killing seven on a civilian bus, and the authorities have the gall to call it “unprecedented” as if it’s our memory which is the problem.
 

NATOs biggest escalation is, as you say, ‘activating’ Finland and Baltics.

Hm; is it? Moldova might cause a bigger headache, because Transnistria looks almost impossible to defend against a determined attack. How about once more hiring cheap Tajik salafi trash, this time for a bio-attack? Russia has cried wolf about a dirty bomb so many times; no idea really if they’re just making it up, or whether their warnings worked. Look, for all I know you are probably sane; but these people are nothing like you are me, and we can have no idea what they’re dreaming of.
 
But yes, a Baltic front will be a good start. Scratch that, in the air it has started. From what I’ve seen of the Balts (Exile seems to know them better), they’ll gratefully jump into the breach, only to regret their choice the next day, when it is too late. This is so, in part because Baltic elites have all but received Russian assurances that they’d be gambling with the lives of their subjects–never their own.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 3 2026 14:48 utc | 198

@unimperator | Jun 3 2026 12:17 utc | 182

One has to wonder what could Russia do to get out of the enemy dictated escalation ladder?

@JamesBond | Jun 3 2026 12:48 utc | 188

Maybe they are afraid to be more proactive

[others now drifting towards similar thoughts–as am I]
Sorry I seem to have trouble getting to the point. But: does Moscow want to escape enemy escalation control? Time and again, I see Russia’s top people mention that reactive rules of engagement are the policy: it’s intrinsic to their concept of an SMO. Its genius, if you go with Martyanov. If I have this ballpark right, then what is the precedent that this can work if the other side stubbornly persists in calling this a war, and fighting it as one? As the joke asks about bolshevism: has it been tested on mice first?

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 3 2026 15:20 utc | 200