As someone who believed that Ukraine had no chance to win from 2022-2025, I’m starting to change my mind. These strikes really hurt Russia economically and Ukrainian drones are destroying Russian logistics which will get worse in the future. Russia has no alternative to Starlink. The war of attrition is turning in Ukraine’s favour.

Posted by: Federal Thanks | May 31 2026 14:52 utc | 4

Federal Thanks | May 31 2026 14:52 utc | 4
 
Defense Minister Advisor Sergei Beskrestnov explained what is known about Rassvet, the Russian equivalent of the Starlink satellite communications system.
He stated that since only 16 satellites are currently in orbit in test mode, this number is insufficient to synchronize them with UAVs and launch strikes against Ukraine. Beskrestnov believes that Rassvet could only pose a threat to Ukraine if the number of satellites reaches at least 200-250. Meanwhile, Russia plans to launch 300 satellites in the coming years, followed by another 700.
“If military use of Rassvet satellites begins, we will notice it in satellite traffic, in intelligence data, or in captured assets. It depends on the intended use. What countermeasures could we take against Rassvet satellites? Has Russia, with its scientific and technological potential, been able to do anything against Starlinks in four years? No, it hasn’t.” “That’s why I don’t think we can do anything either. When there are a lot of satellites, but I have some insidious plans,” the minister’s advisor writes.

Posted by: Sany Dnepropetrovsk | May 31 2026 15:11 utc | 6

The Beeb is really going full on in the threat to Mr. Putin now that ‘the tide has turned’in favour of The Ukraine.
The usual parade of exiled ‘Russia experts’- working for Western think tanks – aplenty.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | May 31 2026 15:25 utc | 8

It took the authorities a couple of days to realize the source of all this evil, and with superb technology and with help from allies the Starlink units were jammed, and their locations spotted. Swiftly the perps were rounded up and executed, depending on their crimes and evidence left behind. 
Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | May 31 2026 13:27 utc | 197
 
Here Bagoom says that the starlink units were jammed. I have read that elsewhere as well.
 
 What is the difference when it comes to Ukraine using Starlink against Russia.?

Posted by: arby | May 31 2026 15:45 utc | 10

“”As someone who believed that Ukraine had no chance to win from 2022-2025, I’m starting to change my mind. These strikes really hurt Russia economically and Ukrainian drones are destroying Russian logistics which will get worse in the future. Russia has no alternative to Starlink. The war of attrition is turning in Ukraine’s favour.
Posted by: Federal Thanks | May 31 2026 14:52 utc | 4 “”
    Odd that. I was under the naive impression Bots could only regurgitate, and don’t have a mind to change.
    Time is in Russia’s favor. Britain, Europe will vote out or squeeze out all those agitators, tenuously hanging on by their toenails to power. Everyday we get another message from Brit/Euro asylum. Pathetic.

Posted by: kupkee | May 31 2026 16:03 utc | 12

@kupkee | May 31 2026 16:03 utc | 12
Europe has been patiently brainwashed since the 1950s.
The UK/US have universities and thinktanks which are dedicated to the means of masscommunication and mindcontrol. And it works. In addition there is the phenomenon of Epstein-methodology. But that kind of phenomenon has accompanied all secret societies I have seen stated. So it isnt new.
 
I dont know what Germany, France, Italy and other Europeans have that compares with that of UK/US. Maybe the USSR had some.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | May 31 2026 16:18 utc | 14

Ukraine & Canada Launch Joint Production of Ukrainian Drones
 
https://x.com/DefenceU/status/2060749456388096339
 
“Ukraine and Canada are expanding defense industrial cooperation through a new project to manufacture Ukrainian unmanned systems in Canada.”
 
Slava Ur Krazy!

Posted by: John Gilberts | May 31 2026 17:19 utc | 16

Posted by: frithguild | May 31 2026 14:26 utc | 2
‘ It does not have the Hollocost in its PR bank.’
——-
how many millions of Russians died fight the NAZIs to protect Russian sovereignty?
If the Ukrainian people choose not to depose this regime, them they support it. As such, in war, if they are in the zone of conflict, they are going to get annihilated. Russia has given every chance to Ukraine, to see reason. Russia has been ultra careful to avoid civilian casualties. The murderous thugs of the AFU and their mercenary cohorts have been merciless. So please don’t preach about ‘Russia must be careful…’ thats bullshit.

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | May 31 2026 19:37 utc | 18

Posted by: frithguild | May 31 2026 16:04 utc | 13 
I was not wishing for anything.. i was responding to the wish expressed by by: EoinW @ 4 on may 28 

Posted by: snake | May 31 2026 20:23 utc | 20

Targeting Russian cities is done by artificial intelligence in the USA

 
The recent CNN report “Inside a Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Unit” confirms what we’ve been writing about lately. Massive drone attacks on Russia, strikes on logistics, attempts to disrupt the economy through UAVs – these are just the visible top layer. We didn’t learn anything new about it from the American report.
 
However, for a large salvo, the Ukrainians don’t need airfields and maintenance shops. Everything is done by teams of three to four people. At one point – three launch catapults. Set it up, arm it, launch it, leave. There are dozens of such points, and they are dispersed. This complicates the hunt at the stage of preparing for the next strike.
 
The most interesting part is not in the field. CNN shows the command post of one of the GUR units. A live map with flight trajectories, overlaying intelligence data, and characteristic orange-red paving markings. This is the signature of Palantir products: Gotham, MetaConstellation, Palantir Edge AI. The same software that Ukraine has been training targeting and interception models with in the Brave1 Dataroom since January 2026.
On May 12, 2026, Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov officially said – “In cooperation with Palantir, we have implemented AI solutions and integrated them into deep strike planning.” And the company’s CEO, Alex Karp, put it even more bluntly for Reuters: “Part of the Ukrainian targeting system is us.”
 
Palantir’s AI processes thousands of parameters simultaneously. Satellite images, radio intercepts, telemetry of previously shot down “Lutys”, open sources, tracks of our mobile “Pantsirs”. And most importantly – it remembers where and at what exact moment Russian air defense intercepted previous drones. After each wave, the neural network recalculates the map of holes in our sky and gives operators the optimal route for the next salvo – through the gaps.
 
Every “Luty” we shot down is a free training dataset for the model that will lead the next one.
 
That’s why there are “waves of 200 drones”, “different speeds, different trajectories”, “hundreds of decoys”, and the declared 1900 km range. This is not heroism of bearded operators in red lighting. This is real-time machine learning, from an American server.
 
Looking for and hitting the catapults, the launch pads, the assembly shops – this is tactics. It’s necessary. But these are symptoms. The source of the problem is Palantir’s software code and the infrastructure that serves it.
 
What to do about it? There’s no simple answer. This is a challenge. Changing the patterns of air defense work unpredictably and quickly. “Pantsirs” standing on “ziggurats” are well known to the enemy. Simulating the work of air defense. Creating information noise for AI. I don’t know if we have structures capable of waging a virtual war against the enemy’s artificial intelligence.
 
However, I know that work on the “Russian Palantir” is underway. A combat platform for integrating data from satellites, electronic warfare, front-line reconnaissance, UAVs, and passive sensors – with a model that learns from our own interceptions and every Ukrainian wave. We have competencies both within the Ministry of Defense and in the civilian sector. We need to catch up. Otherwise, we’re playing chess where the opponent can see our board, but we can’t see his.
 
By the way, the strike on the college in Starobilsk could also be a Palantir targeting.

 
https://x.com/STANISKRAPIVNIK/status/2061131395913617762

Posted by: unimperator | May 31 2026 20:32 utc | 22

I thought Zelensky would take down Yermak if he started snitching. I think it’ll be interesting later, we’ll see.

Posted by: Sany Dnepropetrovsk | May 31 2026 20:43 utc | 24

Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | May 31 2026 19:37 utc | 18

If the Ukrainian people choose not to depose this regime, them they support it.

That’s a lazy statement to make for someone who’s not involved. What would *you* do if you lived in Odessa or Kiev right now? There are pockets of resistance but Ukraine is a police state at least, perhaps closer to military dictatorship. How do you think can the “Ukrainian people choose to depose of this regime”? Have more decency, please. Always cheap to demand revolution from somebody else.

Posted by: Konami | May 31 2026 20:52 utc | 26

*** how many millions of Russians died fight the NAZIs to protect Russian sovereignty? *** So please don’t preach about ‘Russia must be careful…’ thats bullshit.
Posted by: Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh | May 31 2026 19:37 utc | 18
 
I will attempt to examine my tone more carefully in the future Mr. Áobh Ó’Sheachnasaigh.
 
The running theme for my posts in this bar is an examination of propaganda and its effectiveness. So my observation is typically  what is the pov of the “news consumer”. After all, propaganda gets traction when the “informed” become the enforcers voluntarily. Every dopamine addled news consumer wants to save the world so useful idiots abound in Brussels, London, Washington, etc. 
 
Most of “news consumers” would find it a screaming offense if I were to say that the US got nothing at Potsdam and righly so because the it joined the war after Russia already won (A true I believe – but what I believe is inconsequential). Every America will tell you its an absolute truth that “we won the war.”
 
So some lies have greater value in the shaping of perceptions than truth. Policy follows after perceptions coalesce into a socially enforceable hierarchical standard. Humans operate primarily on an us/them and not a true/false preferance bias. As infuriating as it may be, truth doesnt matter as much as an established preference. 
 
If an Oreshnik ploughed through an apartment building and took out the primary NATO operational node, I dont think the RF has enough in the PR bank to come out a winner. Could such a thing be a cassius belli – it would not be the first time a total falsehood rose to that level (Lusitania anyone?). Little doubt some elements would try to make that shoe fit. So the go slow Russian method has been an excercise in habituation to irritants – a kind of policy of hormesis. Like Medvedev just said – get used to it buddy.
 
I never meant to scold that Russia better go slow or else. NATO has no or else. I’m just observing what might be some of the reasons why the RF does slow. Russia has been the only adult in he room since 2008.
 
The conversation that is “slowly” working into the mix here is about  targeting intelligence. Whatever is left after this is done Galicia and Volynia cant have that. I was hopeful that there may be some consideration give to this post Westphalian order that gives up its color revolutions, but I guess im just naive. That toy is just too fun. 

Posted by: frithguild | May 31 2026 21:10 utc | 28

Another Ukrainian strike on RF oil infrastructure ( there have been many in May, and yes it’s causing real pain) this time a refinery in Saratov. And no, the gas rationing happening in Crimea isn’t “business as usual”, not to the extent they’ve implemented it.
 
Interestingly enough, RF has a lever it can pull which would accomplish several goals, all without firing a shot. AFU keeps going after oil and gas targets, and RF is (rightly) complaining that Ukraine is receiving massive assistance from outside their borders that is enabling these attacks. So? What to do? Taking a page from what just transpired in the Middle East, RF -could- cause massive problems by halting all westward trade.
 
No energy, no LNG, no nothing (aluminum, steal, grain, you name it- all still being exported to Europe) Considering the fragile global energy situation with Hormuz and extensive damage to LNG plants in the ME, if RF were to stop exporting all LNG and other products to Europe this will cause major strain and possibly even catastrophic problems for global energy markets. Then, the very countries enabling and assisting the attacks on RF actually will feel real pain. Yes, of course it will cause major problems economically for Russia but  temporarily as over time they could re-direct those exports to an Asia very much willing to buy from them. Further to that, money starts to lose value fast if you’re taking real damage to infrastructure that takes years to rebuild.  RF needs to make a real decision about trading with the very countries that are quite happily causing them real problems.
 
Best part is that if it weren’t for the U.S adventure in the ME, this by itself wouldn’t be such an issue. If things were the same as they were in February, Europe would be able to shift on the fly and make up for these same energy products from other suppliers. And to some extent, they still will, but at MUCH higher prices and much more constrained supply. Further, this would FORCE a hard stop to much of the fighting in the middle east, or at least put Europe very much in the camp pushing aggressively for a long term immediate stabilization regardless of the political situation, something that will draw massive ire from Israel.
 
Best part of this is, RF also has real plausibility, it’s completely non-violent and it falls entirely within existing treaties. They’re not dropping bombs, not firing a single round. Loss of oil refineries from military attacks definitely falls into the various clauses in contracts that one party can claim force majeure and walk away from the agreement. “Congratulations, yes you hurt us, so much so that we need to use our remaining capacity for ourselves and Customers in the east that aren’t  providing the means to attack us”
 
Downside of course is that this gives certain western actors exactly what they’ve been pushing for- final and complete segregation between RF and Europe. However it would be happening at the absolute worst time possible for them considering the global energy situation, something that is not going to be sorted out anytime soon even with a full re-opening of Hormuz.
 
 
 
 

Posted by: Clown Shoes | May 31 2026 21:47 utc | 30

TASS: Another batch of Russian oil arrives in Japan amid disrupted supplies from Middle East

‘In early May, Taiyo Oil and Idemitsu Kosan told TASS about the purchase of a batch of Russian oil from Sakhalin. Japan has banned oil imports from Russia after 2022, but Japanese companies, at the request of the authorities, occasionally purchase small cargoes from the Sakhalin-2 project tied to LNG deliveries. Both Taiyo Oil and Idemitsu Kosan stated that this decision was made as part of diversifying supply sources. They did not disclose the volumes or details of the contract, but Koichi Hagiuda, the deputy secretary general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), said later that Japan recently purchased around 720,000 barrels of oil from Russia.

In recent years, Japan has relied on the Middle East for over 90% of its oil supplies, most of which passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Tokyo has stated it is seeking alternative supply sources, but Russia has not been named as a possible supplier. However, Shunichi Kito, head of the Petroleum Association of Japan and head of the Japanese company Idemitsu Kosan, has mentioned Russia as a possible alternative supplier.’

https://tass.com/economy/2139167

Hmmmm:

Japan to send SDF officers to NATO Ukraine command for first time

‘Japan will for the first time dispatch Self-Defense Forces officers to the Germany-based NATO command for its Ukrainian mission, the Defense Ministry announced Friday, in the latest example of stepped-up ties with the military alliance.

The ministry said it will send four officers to the NATO Security Assistance and Training Organization for Ukraine (NSATU) — a command headquartered in the German town of Wiesbaden and launched in July 2024 to coordinate planning and arrange the delivery of security assistance to the war-torn country.

The officers will work with others to coordinate the provision of equipment and training for the Ukrainian military following Russia’s invasion of its neighbor in February 2022, while also serving as liaisons to partner nations.

The officers, two from the Ground Self-Defense Force and one each from the Air and Maritime Self-Defense Forces, will not be involved in actual combat operations.

“This dispatch will contribute to strengthening Japan’s own defense posture by learning lessons from Ukraine, including those regarding ‘new ways of fighting,’ while also deepening cooperation between Japan and NATO, given that security in the European-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions is inextricably linked,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/05/29/japan/japan-sdf-nato-ukraine-command/

Posted by: LoveDiddly | May 31 2026 22:14 utc | 32

Humanity must find a way to defend itself from the destructive intentions of those who own and control the nation state system.
 
Posted by: snake | May 31 2026 15:46 utc | 11
 

It always seemed to me that is the big question … the riddle of all history and the answer to life, the universe and everything. It won’t be easy, and the results may not be what you expect.
 
Closest so far, “The price of freedom is eternal vigilance”. That’s at best a partial answer because “freedom” itself is subjective.

Posted by: Tel | May 31 2026 22:54 utc | 34

Ok I actually finished reading the posts and there are people here willing to accept the war isn’t won yet.  I feel a little better.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 31 2026 23:16 utc | 36

what are the odds that brilliant Russian mathematicians have broken the Starlink passwords and codes ? 👀
 
Posted by: Exile | May 31 2026 15:00 utc | 5

I can see you don’t understand what a whitelist is.  Ukraine has registered with starlink the unique identifiers that say which dish can and which cannot be used in ukraine.  Hacking the statlink server to modify the whitelist would be necessary to know which receivers can be used.  And it takes no time at all for starlink to update the list to remove Russian compromised ones.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | May 31 2026 23:51 utc | 38

@30.
 
The US started this war and is arming  Kiev to wage it. Any hit by Kiev might be answereg by multiple hits by Russia directly on equivent assets on American soil. That would be fair play. 

Posted by: Richard L | Jun 1 2026 1:41 utc | 40

Posted by: aquadraht | May 31 2026 21:14 utc | 29  “The possibility of attacking the satellites proper has been discussed in a previous thread.”
Maybe of some interest:  https://tvpworld.com/93464780/russian-kosmos-satellites-approach-iceye-radar-used-by-ukraine
Possible they could park one “in front”….

Posted by: ed4 | Jun 1 2026 1:47 utc | 42

Happy to be wrong about this.
 
I am, after all, just a clown

Not at all.  I sincerely appreciate the thoughtful response and the assembly line metaphor is good.  Im already incorporating it into my own thought processes.  It does feel Russia thinks a currently winning strategy simply needs to be expanded and therefore ends up being surprised constantly.
 
Wait it out for inevitable victory is like saying hope is a strategy.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 1 2026 1:53 utc | 44

Does this sound familiar?

Let’s not forget how Putin won Chechnya.  He started razing everything to the ground and promised local elites a significant share in local wealth(oil).  After enough destruction they calculated that aligning with Russia was the correct choice and nothing the west promised them was real or worth it. The Kadyrovs have been in power ever since, as Putins personal ally.
 
Its the carrot and the stick strategy. Oldie but a goodie.

Posted by: Neofeudalfuture | Jun 1 2026 2:15 utc | 46

it is easy to see the desperation of the Banderites who try to overwhelm this blog with words,words and more words.
You are losing – get over it.

Posted by: Merkin Scot | Jun 1 2026 2:26 utc | 48

In fact Putin seems to have unlearnt every lesson taught by that conflict and Russia’s successful tactics in Chechen War II. 
 
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Jun 1 2026 1:53 utc | 48
 
That’s because the Russian military was thoroughly fed up with Yeltsin and decided to take control and do what was needed to win the war. No one wanted to listen to Yeltsin and he lost all power. It was partly do to Russia feeling humiliated with NATO’s bombing of Yugoslavia/Serbia where Russia did nothing.  Furthermore the NATO bombing of Serbia for over 2.5 months where it repeatedly killed civilians but dismissed them as “collateral damage” freed Russia to bomb Chechnya without the west and media able to criticize very much as Russia could point the finger back as it was all fresh in the minds of even the sheeple and that includes NATO killing at least 3 Chinese workers in their embassy in Belgrade. 

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 1 2026 3:08 utc | 50

‘I Would Have Ripped Up His Passport’: Inside One Man’s Fight To Bring His Son’s Remains Home From Front Lines
 
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/i-would-have-ripped-up-his-passport-inside-one-mans-fight-to-bring-his-sons-remains-home-from-front-lines/
 
“Canadian Marc Mazerolle says he wants to bring ‘peace to families’ whose loved ones died on the battlefield as foreign fighters for Ukraine.
 
“There are 90 countries involved in the war in Ukraine. Foreign fighters for both Ukraine and Russia have died and never been accounted for. We want to help families, no matter what side of the conflict their loved one fought for. These are human beings, like my son, they deserve to be accounted for and buried properly,‘ says Mazerolle.
 
One year to the day after his son left for Ukraine, Mazerolle made his own journey into Kyiv in search of answers, in search of his son’s remains, and in an effort to get support to help get his organization off the ground. 
 
What he found was a system ill prepared to help families like his own, and some organizations who were there trying to profit off the war and the tragedy that has ensued…”
 
A sad story of a death that needn’t have occurred. One of far too many. On both sides.  
 

Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 1 2026 3:15 utc | 52

The war of attrition is turning in Ukraine’s favour.
 
Posted by: Federal Thanks | May 31 2026 14:52 utc | 4
 
You’ve gone full retard.

Posted by: Screwdriver | Jun 1 2026 3:30 utc | 54

 These are human beings, like my son, they deserve to be accounted for and buried properly,‘ says Mazerolle. Posted by: John Gilberts | Jun 1 2026 3:15 utc | 56
 
Nah! They are mercs who went to kill Russians and terrorize the Donbas civilians. They don’t deserve anything except to be “downed” as Russians put it.

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 1 2026 3:57 utc | 56

If an autonomous vehicle drives over the border from Poland to Ukraine, spits its’ load of drones to the air towards Russia and returns for reloading to Rzeslow, from where is the attac committed?

Posted by: Catilina | Jun 1 2026 4:16 utc | 58

@Perimetr | Jun 1 2026 3:24 utc | 56
 
>>I believe the US intends to use the EU as a proxy
This is not mere belief, it’s observed behavior. Visibly, the US disengages from Europe militarily–at least a bit. 🙂 But nobody who’s somebody in Washington tells the Eurotrash “Take a deep breath, you’ve gone insane.” In other words, the Dark Throne wants to neither fight nor prevent the coming continent-wide war–just profit from it, same it’s ever been. The way I see it, the Euros have primarily Ukrainized themselves; comforting to believe that the ordinary people deserve better, but where is the evidence? Once again, Brian Berletic comes out looking good, because he does his homework and studies the actual policy papers.
 
>>Yes, this is insane, but that is now the defining characteristic of leadership in both the US, the UK, and Europe. 
Going by your own logic, you cannot lob those three together into one sentence. The US is completely superior to the other two; you don’t have to like them to see that this is so. As we speak, what is Putin’s policy, stated by him personally? Wait till Kushner and Witkoff can be bothered to come to Moscow; that is, he acknowledges Team Trump’s status as being above his own.
 
————————-
@MiniMO | Jun 1 2026 3:57 utc | 59
 
>>They don’t deserve anything except to be “downed” as Russians put it.
As much as I empathize with the sentiment, they were downed: the system worked, no need to gloat over it. Going by the source of @John Gilberts | Jun 1 2026 3:15 utc | 55, the father intends to work with the Ukie and Russian side. In other words, that father might yet learn something, and shouldn’t we be a bit open-minded and constructive about his initiative when for his personal reasons, he may be doing more than most of us here.
 
But one coin is yet to drop. ‘I Would Have Ripped Up His Passport’, the father sobs. But as his son was packing for war on the Eastern Front under the Red-Black flag, he didn’t. The rest is history.
 
—————
@Screwdriver | Jun 1 2026 3:38 utc | 58
 
>>They can do this indefinitely.
I worry that this is how the Moscow MOD thinks. To them, the Russian people are a mobilization resource–something that should just get out of the way, when and where the generals choose to go to work. Not the nation they’re sworn to protect. The Kursk episode provided much evidence that is indeed how they roll. But the Russian Federation is not the USSR, nor do I want it to be. And oh, the USSR collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions.
 

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 1 2026 4:58 utc | 60

AP Williams
 
Russian drone knocked off course and lands on a Romanian roof – West screams bloody murder from the rooftops. Israel invades Lebanon to seize land, ignores ceasefire and targets 700 000 civilians – barely audible sound from the hyper-hypocrites.
https://x.com/AparryW/status/2061356804286640424
 

Posted by: Menz | Jun 1 2026 8:22 utc | 62

In contrast to the doomer bubble’s (you know who) propaganda here: 

According to the automatic calculation of our map, in May 2026, the Russian Armed Forces liberated 232 square kilometers of territory.
https://t.me/divgen/81135
 

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 1 2026 9:03 utc | 64

@Genesis | Jun 1 2026 9:18 utc | 65
 
>>Will Musk respond? Or is he even entitled to feel safe anymore?
Nobody has been punished for Starobelsk; nobody. Not that I necessarily give Musk a pass, but many people well ahead of him with their involvement in the kill chain are still sitting pretty. The other day, Alex “Palantir” Karp went to Kiev, no doubt to plan new lucrative mischief, without a worry in the world; wouldn’t be surprised if VVP personally guaranteed his safety. The time for Moscow to huff and puff about what they might do if only they could find the political will are long gone. Wars are tests of skill, resources, and political will; it’s in the latter that Moscow comes up short–even in the will to call this war a war.
 
————–
@aquadraht | Jun 1 2026 9:03 utc | 64

According to the automatic calculation of our map, in May 2026, the Russian Armed Forces liberated 232 square kilometers of territory.https://t.me/divgen/81135

You’re right of course, before we succumb to doom or bliss we have to quantify things. Few are disputing that, after rasputitsa, the “business as usual” attritional grind has resumed. A smaller majority, but majority nonetheless, agrees that in this grind, it’s Russia that holds the initiative. But now let’s quantify the next step: how many of such months would it still take until, at a minimum, the clearing of Donbas? The Donetsk provincial border is rather concrete; even the Kremlin can spin the concept of “Donbas victory” only so far.
 
The progress you quote is arguably better for the Russian side than if it were in the other direction. But don’t market it as a “General Spring Offensive,” as some worthies are trying to do. Even I know that it wasn’t–and indeed the official MOD has never made any such claim this year, as far as I know.
 

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 1 2026 10:01 utc | 66

Feel free to execute:
How about forming an ultra extreme über Nazi terrorist organisation with most rabid russophobic and hate filled rhetorics and expletives but directing their terror and drone attacks against the West and Polish sub humans for their betrayal and lack of commitment?

Posted by: Catilina | Jun 1 2026 10:30 utc | 68

 « …the Romanian President himself confirmed that it was, in fact, a Ukrainian drone. »
Posted by: Genesis | Jun 1 2026 9:18 utc | 65
——————-
Could you provide a source for the sentence above? Thanks!

Posted by: scc | Jun 1 2026 10:59 utc | 70

Posted by: Savonarole | Jun 1 2026 11:15 utc | 71
 
Russia needs to sink a French and/or British bound LNG tanker to restore deterrence in regard to Russia’s own tankers. If Nato follows up on more piracy, sink another one. And so on.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2026 11:24 utc | 72

https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2026/06/01/ukraine-war-day-1559-drone-hellscape-part-i/
 
Writes about the effect of Ukranazi drones on the city of Vasilievka, Zaporozhye, which has been transformed from a safe rear area into a “frontline” town, purely by the power of Ukranazi drones.
 
This is what focusing on the Sarmats, which will never be used in combat, while ignoring drones and the EU drone production economy gets you. 

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Jun 1 2026 11:26 utc | 74

 “(Russia) spent the last 20 years preparing for this.” 

 
[Posted by: Screwdriver | Jun 1 2026 3:38 utc | 55]
 
Russia spent the last 20 years preparing for eff all. Russia didn’t even recognise the importance of drones, despite watching Azerbaijan wipe the floor with Armenia by using drones, and in 2022 attacked Ukranazistan as though drones didn’t exist. Russia then had to play desperate catch up with not just drones but HIMARS and all the other goodies sent into Ukranazistan by NATO. Russia was so unprepared that the Ukranazi 2022 offensive nearly cut off Lugansk and would have except for the heroic 3 week defence by motley voluntary units and regulars at Krasni Liman. Russia was so short of troops that Wagner had to be activated while Putin belatedly ordered a partial mobilisation  and that in turn led to the Prigoputsch. Russia is still so unprepared that its drone systems took a 25% loss of accuracy when it lost access to Starlink, as though Russia had some kind of assurance that it could indefinitely use the enemy’s Starlink. Long before this Russia,  had it been prepared, would have had an equivalent or superior satellite network in place. Where is it?
 
Russia “prepared”? That’s a bad joke. Under Putin Russia prepared for nothing at all.
 
That it has coped at all is a major miracle.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Jun 1 2026 11:37 utc | 76

Macron juste pirated
Posted by: Savonarole | Jun 1 2026 11:15 utc | 71
 
He has stolen it but he did not do it alone. It was with UK and other partners which were not named ( tass.com/politics/2139543 )
So US probably is “partner” which inspecteur Clouseau does not dare to name. 

Posted by: rk | Jun 1 2026 11:45 utc | 78

“The fact that Russia has lasted this long is a miracle.  How much longer can it hold on is another story.”
 
Posted by: bored | May 31 2026 15:23 utc | 7
 
The main thing is that we’ve all got this far without going nuclear.  It was getting just a little edgy toward the end of the Biden Presidency.
 
Not that anyone would be fool enough to press the button deliberately.   But when tensions are running high, and in spite of what seem to be some comprehensive deconfliction arrangements, the chances of accident are just that little bit higher.  I’m guessing, though it can’t be an informed guess, that the chances of accidental Armageddon have receded since President Biden left office. 
 
So the question now is not so much one of straight survival.  It’s whether the Russians can keep plodding along as they are,  which keeps costs fairly low for them, or whether they’re going to have allow the conflict to spill out into Europe. 
 
That seems on the face of it to be a simple calculation.  What is the cost of the damage the West is currently doing?.  What is the cost of stopping them doing it?   Not just the cost of the missiles it’d take to prevent the Western powers shipping drones and missiles to Ukraine, but the diplomatic and political backlash long term if the Russians were to extend the war to the European theatre as a whole.  Remembering they’d have to strike American assets in Europe too because the Americans are still key players when it comes to supplying materiel and ISR assistance and helping plan the various attacks into Russia.
 
But it’s not that simple a calculation.  It’s not just a matter of balancing relative costs.  War has its own momentum.  Emotional response matters too.  I remember the Falklands war.  In terms of scale that’s a ridiculous comparison.  In terms of emotional response of the general public, not.
 
At that time the risk and cost of countering the Argentinian invasion looked to be greater than the loss incurred by just letting the Argentinians have the islands.  No question.  But the public mood was nothing to do with relative costs.  “We’re not having that!” was the public response in the UK.  The politicians of the time, though fully aware that the risk and cost of responding outweighed the benefits, would almost certainly have lost power had they not acted in accordance with that public mood.
 
So here.  Striking supply depots, logistics facilities and military HQ’s in Europe goes dead against the policy that the Russian administration has been pursuing for the last four years.  They want to put the Ukrainian conflict to bed without letting the conflict spill out into open war in Europe and they’ve been doing OK on that so far.  But then the public mood enters the equation.
 
If someone were sending missiles and mounting sabotage and assassination attacks into England we in the general public wouldn’t be doing cost benefit analyses.  We’d be jumping up and down and insisting our politicians did something about it.  Turn that obvious truth around.  We in the West are sending missiles and mounting sabotage and assassination attacks into Russia and we can be dead sure the Russian general public is jumping up and down about that right now.
 
So that’s the question they’ll be pondering in the Russian Security Council.   How much more rope can we give the West, they’ll be saying,  before the Russian public gets fed up with just passively taking the knocks.  You and I, “bored”,  have no way of guessing what they’ll decide on that.    And it’s not as if you and I were players ourselves.  We’ll just have to wait and see what their decision is.

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 1 2026 12:58 utc | 80

@82
 
If nato escalates in Russia’s neighboring countries (Baltics/Poland/Finland etc.) Russia needs to strike deep Nato targets in western Europe, that form the backbone of Nato’s military industrial and logistic potential. That cuts off not only Ukraine, but the Baltics, Finland and Poland from future weapon or energy shipments.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2026 13:47 utc | 82

Posted by: Night Tripper | Jun 1 2026 13:58 utc | 84
 
It’s better to cut the root of the bush than branches of the bush.

Posted by: unimperator | Jun 1 2026 14:03 utc | 84

@Englishman | Jun 1 2026 10:16 utc | 67
 
>>how long is Russia going to tolerate it’s merchant ships being hijacked
When wide-eyed Westerners fall prey to the Jewelry Scam, or to the Antiques Scam (same deal really), you name it, and they finally get to whine in the offices of Bangkok Tourist Police, the refrain is “And all this time I thought I was the smart one–that it was my own idea.” What I mean is: reconsidering, I think this was a masterclass in professional psy-war which went completely over the Russian heads. And with “professional” I mean of course that the Eurocritters from TV were just reading a script from–well what do I know, but MI6 seems very very good at this stuff.
 
All this shrieking “The Russians are coming, hybrid war, aggression, hacked elections!” was supposed to be just a clown show, right? But it provoked the reaction that Big Bad Vlad assured them that he wasn’t gonna touch the Euros–ever. But now you have the Kremlin boxed in: for if they touch somebody anyway, they’d be treacherous and aggressive. How hard can it be to say instead “I speak for the Bear; it’s my sworn duty to protect Mother Russia. Behave nicely and all will be fine; raise some hell anyway, and share in the fate of the Kiev piggies.” Just like Naftali Bennett should’ve been told “Whether your tribesman Zelensky lives or dies will largely depend on his own behavior.” In every other situation, isn’t it Putin’s instinct to keep his options open? Isn’t the latter a principle of statesmanship?
 
VVP had all this figured out: “The Euros are pursuing an irrational fantasy; over time they’ll realize they need us.” But we are now learning that that’s not really true. The Euros need Russian resources; sure the plan to just plunder those failed so far, but they can still buy them directly from the oligarchs, or at least through middlemen. No strings attached, no questions asked. Looks to me that the Moscow govt serves the energy/resource sector at least at much as it governs and oversees it, even though ironically some of the key playas are state companies. Curiously, Russia just doesn’t seem to derive that much leverage from its natural wealth (looking at Nigeria and Congo, there is no automatic link). Russia simply isn’t as disciplined as China, where the Party still has the last word; it’s a much more free-wheeling place, and the Euros know how to play that game; not so stupid after all.
 
—————
@Avtonom | Jun 1 2026 13:03 utc | 81
 
I posted it once, together with some colorful language that our host didn’t recognize or didn’t excuse as a literal Pulp Fiction quote (something about relations with your maternal relative 🙂 ). When that got deleted, I reposted in the next thread without the nonsense and it stayed up. Of course, others may have posted independently as well.
 
——————
@9razyna | Jun 1 2026 12:40 utc | 79
 
>>In Poland we say, that the government is Polish-speaking, not Polish.
Bingo!! I remember at the 2018 Football Cup, there was a lighthearted moment involving the blonde President of Croatia, and my own father was no less charmed by her than a certain Vladimir Putin. I could see what they saw, but it became more interesting when I heard her speak: native American, completely free of the Slavic accent I know so well. Made me think “She didn’t just study there: she grew up in the US.” And so it turned out to be when looking it up. In this whole part of the world, it’s not uncommon for people to receive their passport just prior to their inauguration. See also that French chick in Georgia before they got rid of her; countless others. And always remember: it’s Russian influence and infiltration we should guard for.
 
>>Former President Andrzej Duda is of Ukrainian origin
Heard this before: “Don’t like Duda the son? Wait till I tell you about Duda the (grand)father.”
 
Strange to me though you didn’t mention Radek Sikorski, who seems mostly loyal to the club of Ms. Applebaum. Isn’t he the archetype? Like maybe the Irish, the Polish have chosen a path where their catholicism and other traditions just won’t survive. Looks to me like hating Russia more than loving Poland; but who am I to judge.
 

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 1 2026 14:30 utc | 86

‘Germany based NATO Command Center for the Ukrainian mission’ – now openly admitted.
 
So this NATO command center is actually the center for UAF strikes on Russia?
 
Who is the insane dope who allowed this?
 
As we creep toward WWIII !

Posted by: tobias cole | Jun 1 2026 14:50 utc | 88

Perhaps simply imagination, but
I have the sense that Zelensky prefers not to be present for particularly dangerous attacks, but the Russians are waiting him -out.
 
The Poles making a stink about Ukraine admiration of nazi’s is a bit ironic at this late stage, but I think it may reflect increasing Ukraine fatigue.
 
One european semi-offcial states that the individual countries of Europe should begin talks with Russia. A bit of daylight in a dreary situation.
 
I hope that Russia will apply a tarrif on sales of energy products to western Europe.

Posted by: jared | Jun 1 2026 15:20 utc | 90

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Jun 1 2026 10:01 utc | 66
…before we succumb to doom or bliss we have to quantify things.

Fully agreed, and that is my point. About a week ago, the propaganda barrage by IS, and Western and UA media started. soon parroted by “pro Russian” and a few Russian outlets. They highly praised the “brand new Hornet drone” and its outstanding abilities, and predicted, partially even announced doom for the Novorossiya highway and the whole of Russian logistics. There is even a Ukrainian MoD program with over 5 billion US$ for that purpose (cough, wherever that may land ..).
 
A rather cool description is presented by Aleksandr Zimovsky on Boris Roshin’s website: https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/10562031.html . It shows the route of the two transport arteries. To compare it to the recent LBS, a look at https://divgen.ru should suffice. It reveals that the closest distance to reasonably start Hornet drones, also larger objects, would be 90-130km from the nearest points of R280 if one does not think about firing them from the cellars and holes of dugin mobiks. (Hitting the Taurida highway is even more unrealistic, and boils down to the Crimean Bridge whose destruction is promised for years.) 
 
That considerably limits the use of the Hornet with their max range of 150-190km, their batteries will be half empty before they come to observe something. And I see their main use in renaissance, a 5-10kg explosive charge is not really impressive. Neither are short range missiles “Olcha-m” or GMLRS of the HIMARS/R270 type, both projectiles and launchers are regularly shot down already now. HIMARS were a real problem back in 22/23, in the meantime more than 90% of the projectiles are shot down. So far, dropping mines from Baba Yaga seems to be effective for a few hours detour and sapper work, increasingly performed by Kurjer robots. Some pics of those mines (don’t touch! 🙂 ) here https://t.me/boris_rozhin/212725
As to the aerial “battles” to come, Zinkovsky bit snarkily notes

For Russia, this will mean an increase in the number of debris falling on critical infrastructure facilities and, possibly, decision-making centers. For Ukraine, this will mean an increase in the number of areas in which all Russian-designated targets will be destroyed and hit.

Well that ofc and rightly lashed out to the usual reporting, which, as Roshin noted somewhere else, already spread to the US in Mideast, where staff and material in Kuwait also were damaged by “falling debris”. 
 
Anyway, let us not forget the proportions. According to Southfront https://t.me/southfronteng/60904 ,

Russia And Ukraine Continue The Drone War: Fires At Oil Depots, Drone Production Facilities, And Logistics HubsOn the night of May 31, Russia and Ukraine continued their daily exchange of strikes using unmanned aerial vehicles. According to Ukrainian monitoring services, 229 UAVs launched from Russian territory were recorded over Ukraine. Of these, Kyiv claims that 212 were allegedly shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare means. The Russian Ministry of Defense, for its part, reported the destruction of 216 Ukrainian drones over 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the waters of the Sea of Azov.

The “minor” difference: Indeed Russia reported fires and damages by “falling debris” on one oil tank in a factory, another fuel depot, and another industrial site, also two civilian sites, houses and vehicles. Fires were taken out at the time of the report in the morning.
In Ukraine, allegedly all but 17 targets were destroyed. But Khronika Udarov v Territory Ukrainy 30 Maya – 31 Maya 2026 goda (using Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources) https://t.me/boris_rozhin/212650 reports 53 hits, most by significantly more than one object. all over Ukraine. Amazing what 17 drones can do 🙂
 
Lastly. a report about Rubikon performance over time:

Dates of key cut-offs (+intervals) of the number of publications of the affected targets by the official channel
(https://t.me/icpbtrubicon ) Rubicon Center:
5000 – August 07, 2025 (+297 days since the channel was created)10000 – October 27, 2025 (+81 days)15,000 – January 06, 2026 (+71 days)20,000 – March 13, 2026 (+66 days)25,000 – April 27, 2026 (+46 days)30,000 – May 30, 2026 (+33 days)

Just to think about. This time, I agree (to some extent) to the Pentagon, about who has the upper hand in the NATO war against Russia in and using Ukraine.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jun 1 2026 15:44 utc | 92

The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed a soldier died yesterday in a “training incident” in Iraqi Kurdistan — the same day explosions struck Erbil province following strikes on Kurdish Iranian opposition group headquarters.
London offered no explanation for the troop presence in the region or the circumstances of the death.
DDGeopolitics

Posted by: MiniMO | Jun 1 2026 15:58 utc | 94

“RF -could- cause massive problems by halting all westward trade.” 
 
Posted by: Clown Shoes | May 31 2026 21:47 utc | 30
 
Counter-sanctions.   Had these been imposed in ’22 there would have been problems for the Russians.  The Russians didn’t want their new customers fearing that Russia might use the oil weapon on them if there were any disputes in the future.  They didn’t have the infrastructure in place to take the supplies elsewhere that used to go to Europe.  They were operating at that time in the context of almost universal  disapproval of their invasion of Ukraine.   Maybe they were also hoping that the Europeans would see sense – there’s no advantage to the Russians, having a hostile Europe on their Western borders.
 
All these reasons for holding back on counter-sanctions either no longer apply at all or no longer apply as much.  The only reason I can see for holding back is long term: bad things come out of Europe when it’s in a mess so no advantage to the Russians in making that mess worse.  But this isn’t the Europe of 1941 and not likely to be.  It’ll be a while before  “military Keynesianism” gets going in Europe and maybe never.
 
And you point out the practical advantages to the Russians in imposing counter-sanctions.  Only thing is, those advantages will be obvious to the European politicians too.  Might  spur them on to ever more desperate Hail Mary’s while there’s still time and opportunity to try them.  Then it’d go to military conflict for a certainty.  The Russians, I think, have had enough of our Hail Mary’s by now. 

Posted by: English Outsider | Jun 1 2026 16:05 utc | 96

Posted by: Konami | Jun 1 2026 14:31 utc | 88
 
Thanks a lot for your uplifting commentary, and yes, I think you’re totally right. It was the mental warfare thing that got me. Ritter is frequently on the brink of “Russia should” and “Russia must” but most often he stays away from that. 
 
 

Posted by: Avtonom | Jun 1 2026 16:17 utc | 98

Posted by: Steven Starr | Jun 1 2026 16:09 utc | 97
 
 
As always, thank you for your sobering, if terrifying, analysis 

Posted by: Caveman | Jun 1 2026 16:21 utc | 100