Dead thread again.  May I re-submit?
 
Posted by: John Gilberts | May 17 2026 1:43 utc | 128
 
 Thanks for that.  No idea whatsoever where Helmer’s coming from  but he’s great for meticulous sourcing.  I noted this from Lavrov.  My bolding:-
 
 “But there remain many issues that require more detailed consideration. Such consideration will become possible as soon as we confirm the Alaska agreements. I hope this happens sooner rather than later. As Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated, we will achieve the goals of the special military operation under any circumstances. Preferably through diplomatic means, but if not, we will continue to do so within the framework of the special military operation.”
 
 The “goals of the special military operation” mentioned by Lavrov can only by achieved by the unconditional surrender of Ukraine.  That’s been clear since the failure of the Istanbul talks in early ’22.
 
 Those “goals” have not altered.  Rather, they have become more comprehensive and more urgent since that time.  The “dirty war” against Russia from Ukraine has really taken off since ’22.  I could be wrong but I don’t recollect attacks on NPP’s in the early days.   Now they are routine and some can only be carried out, not only with the use of Western weaponry, but with active Western assistance in that use.
 
 So too with sabotage and assassination attacks across the border.  Post 2014 – again only as far as I know – these were confined to the Donbass, which until recently wasn’t even part of Russia and didn’t look like being so.  Now, those attacks reach into Russia far beyond the Donbass and again, some can only be carried out with Western assistance or even direction.
 
 So too with drone and missile attacks.  Many can only be carried out with Western assistance,  and very likely Western planning and direction.   Sometimes certainly with Western planning and direction.
 
 There can no longer be any doubt about that, even on our side.  The revelations in the Western Press put it past all doubt.  We can confine ourselves merely to the NYT and WAPO.  From articles in those alone we can see set out the means and the mechanics of the “dirty war” against Russia mounted out of Ukraine from 2014 on.  Presumably the Russians knew it all along.  If they didn’t, they should sack their Intelligence Services en masse and get better ones.
 
 But of course they knew it!  Ukraine is swamped with Intel Services, ours and the Russian, so much so that it’s a wonder there’s any room left even for the rapidly diminishing original population!
 
 So that’s the “dirty war” side of the Ukrainian conflict.  Any “peace settlement” that did not close off all these means of “dirty war” attack would be unacceptable to the Russians.  A peace that allowed the West to use Ukraine or any part of it to mount such attacks would be no peace in reality for the Russians.  To again quote Sleboda, it would leave Ukraine, from the Russian point of view, as a ““A zone of destabilisation and insecurity for the rest of our lives.”
 
 Therefore “demilitarisation”, one of the key Russian “goals” in ’22 and since, now means more than it did.   It would no longer be sufficient to limit the size and equipment of the Ukrainian standing army.   It would be necessary to ensure that the Western powers could not run agents into Western Ukraine or set up covert networks there as was done in the Gehlen years.  It would be necessary to ensure that weaponry could not be covertly supplied that could be used for further attacks on Russia. 
 
 These are not minor considerations, not for the Russians.  As has often been  pointed out by Daniel Davis and others, they would not be minor considerations for Americans were similar work being done out of Mexico against the US.  After well over 100,000 deaths the Russian people could not accept as a “peace settlement” any peace settlement that left them still open to such attacks or even the likelihood of such attacks coming out of Ukraine.   What would they have fought for, if only to end up precisely where they started in early 2022?
 
 Forget the Anchorage nonsense.  If there was ever a chance of that coming to anything that was always a remote chance and it’s not even that any longer.  Since Anchorage, the use of US ISR facilities has continued as before.  Take no notice of  President Trump’s assertion that the Europeans are now the ones paying for the war.   Whether that’s so or not, weapons and logistics continue much as before, reduced except for drones only because the US is running out of other weapons and Europe had few enough to start with.   The recent frantic attempts of the Europeans to retain some sort of foothold in Ukraine show no lack of resolve.  There will be no voluntary or agreed cessation of the Western  use of Ukraine.  As we have demonstrated and continue to demonstrate in so many other theatres, we in the West are experts in “dirty war.”  We devote immense resources to it.  We shall continue to use the Ukrainian theatre for it if we can.
 
 Unlike most here I’m an admirer of the old Ukraine.  Always have been.  OK, so it was hopelessly corrupt and maladministered and had intractable internal divisions – but what’s new in that?  And “ultras” you find everywhere, not only in Ukraine.  Never mind the history and all the Russkiy Mir talk, the Ukraine that emerged from the break-up of the old Soviet Union had the chance of becoming a great country in its own right, the Donbass and even Crimea included.  In my view that chance was long overdue.  The Ukrainians, pro-Russia or pro-Western or not particularly bothered, were a great people.  Economic, cultural and even family ties to the nation next door are in no way justification for denying a great people their right to exist as an independent nation.
 
 That’s over now.  The internal divisions that I know for a fact were manageable, often even trivial, some twenty years ago, were magnified and then set in iron by the Association Agreement negotiations and then by the Maidan and the ATO.  Those divisions are now core.  The Western promotion and then empowerment of the “ultras” has seen to that.  The Ukraine is no longer a great nation in posse.  It is a murderous and incoherent shambles in esse and it is the Western use of it, long ago adumbrated in theory by such as Brzezinski and that theory put into practice ever since as a means of destabilising or if possible fragmenting the Russian Federation, that has inevitably led to the Ukraine we see in ruins today.
 
 Was that inevitable in 2022?  I thought it was and nothing that has occurred since has changed that view.  It has merely made it the more inevitable.  The West will do nothing to help pick up the pieces.   On the contrary, it shows continued determination to use such pieces as it can against Russia.   The primary aim of the Russians is now to ensure that none of those pieces can any longer be used against them by the West.   It is that aim that is the aim behind those carefully phrased words that Helmer quotes above from Lavrov.
 
 The tragedy of Ukraine is that it’s an aim that can now only be accomplished by unconditional surrender and the final break-up of the old Ukraine.  Lavrov’s a long experienced diplomat.  He is always conscious that in speaking of such matters he’s speaking also to the Russian allies and friends.  He has to take them along with him.  But there can be no doubt that that is exactly what he means.  “As Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated, we will achieve the goals of the special military operation under any circumstances.”    I rather think we’re getting close to finding out how.
 
Posted by: English Outsider | May 17 2026 13:53 utc | 132

Posted by: English Outsider | May 17 2026 14:40 utc | 3

English Outsider:
I see no compelling reason why Ukraine and Russia couldn’t have kept up peaceful co-existence.
BUT. There are outsiders (not you) who profit from resource grabs to collateralize dying Empires. To that extent, I can agree that Ukraine and Russia (to a lesser degree) are being used by amoral forces.

Posted by: kupkee | May 17 2026 16:29 utc | 5

@ Mike R §6:
Yes, it seems that America has become imbued, whoever its leaders are, with the British disease that “we cannot allow Russia to exist”.
As long as this pathological intolerance exists, Russia is justified in seeing Anglo-America (+ now the brainwashed EU) as an existential threat and prepare their defences accordingly. 

Posted by: John Marks | May 17 2026 19:40 utc | 7

There no citation given for this bar graph (maybe it’s in the Russian header) just a link to the original TG channel post, and I was schooled to ignore uncited things but that was before there was an internet where everything is real (enough) and where “no one knows you’re a dog” and it’s fun to bark in the echo chamber so, on those conditions here it is for your consideration. I can’t remember who our resident statistician is, I think Exile, so maybe he or someone else can opine on it. All that said, after seeing 4 years of clips like this video from Haisyn it seems probable to me. It’s quite the graph:
 

The approximate ratio of bodies from the Russian and Ukrainian sides, handed over during all exchanges since 2023 – “Military Chronicle”.
 
https://t.me/llordofwar/618845
https://t.me/Warhronika/13683

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | May 17 2026 20:05 utc | 9

Mike R 6 – yes even more reason to push the Big Arrow and collapse the rotten wall of conscripts, and surpress the drone threat with EW, and get the heck toward Odessa and Transnistria in the now dry season asap……get it done for gosh sakes….crush NATO and UK Brit mercs like a pop can!

Posted by: tobias cole | May 17 2026 20:38 utc | 11

Look its got to be obvious by now to VVP that the entire military-industrial complex of a core of the EU is going to be devoted (as adelled as they are) to produced arms for the destruction of Mother Russia.
 
The EU and UK leaders like Ursula Von der Liar, Sir Keir and Macron and Otto von Bismarck Jr are bound and determined not to defeat RF, but to destroy the RF in detail.
 
If I were VVP for a day, the first thing I would do is to place the RF on a full scale war footing, call up for duty the 2 million reserve troops, airman and sailors, put them on standby, and start operation Bagration II immediately. 
 
I would begin to escort all RF oil tankers in convoy to all world destinations. 
 
I would begin an airborne, land and amphibious combined arms attack on Odessa and open the corridor to Transnistria (without which the Russians in the region will be doomed, much like the Serb in the Krajina in 1995).   
 
I would warn the Baltic states that any UAF drone or manned aircraft that attack RF will result in immediate counter actions by RF forces. 
 
I would warn the UK that any RN personnel captured in the fighting out of uniform will be executed after a military trial by tribunal for being spies (in fact military personnel captured on the battlefield out of uniform mascarading as civilians will be executed – just like what action the US army took after the Battle of the Bulge, when many German SS troops were captured wearing US MP uniforms). 
 
I would take down all Ukronazi rail and highway bridges outside the area of advance.  I would destroy all oil tank farms and power stations, and foreign military bases and biolabs (especially US CIA biolabs). 
 
I would use the RF nuke icebreaker fleet to open up the Northern transit lanes to Asia for oil and gas shipments – year around! 
 
I would start a massive combined arms ground offensive toward Odessa and a diversionary offensive in the north aimed at Kharkov.
 
Ok that is the plan, now go forth and get it done, with some haste.  Those who hesitate are lost……….

Posted by: tobias cole | May 17 2026 21:00 utc | 13

Any thoughts on the Moscow drone attack? 
For some reason, Diesen seems agitated.  
Posted by: Sean | May 17 2026 20:56 utc | 12
 
 
He’s agitated because it’s all the excuse Russia needs to hit Europe. Places in Europe that produce the drones. A massive escalation is coming because of Putin’s kid gloves and he lost his deterrence as he allowed red lines to be crossed without reply.
 
Ever since they hit the Strategic nuclear triad. Hit the nuclear bombers on the Russian tarmac and Putin did nothing. The West have just escalated and escalated.
 
Diesen and Ritter  now believes the kid gloves are going to come off. He’s agitated as he doesn’t know what this escalation will do.

Posted by: Andrew | May 17 2026 21:21 utc | 15

A massive escalation is coming because of Putin’s kid gloves and he lost his deterrence as he allowed red lines to be crossed without reply.
Ever since they hit the Strategic nuclear triad. Hit the nuclear bombers on the Russian tarmac and Putin did nothing. The West have just escalated and escalated.

Posted by: Andrew | May 17 2026 21:21 utc | 15
 
Typical right-wing idealogue talking points. Blame Putin, the usual personalisation technique of chronic Helmeritis sufferers, “muh red lines ” etc.
 
You’ve been here long enough, under various screen names, to surely have understood that what you wrote here comes from Western MSM Wurlitzer feeds, with a good sprinkling of Russian “turbo-patriotism” added. All fuelled by Western “intelligence” agencies, ultimately.
 
Very few here acknowledge the political and social chaos inside Ukraine, always preferring to look for the slightest sign of something in Russia that can be dressed up, amplified or inflated (there’s a loaded word…) as a “setback” or “Putin in crisis”, or some other Brigade 77 nonsense.
 
You regurgitate all this faradiddle, yet you claim to be more intelligent than most of the regulars.
 
You have shown your true colours there, Derek…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 17 2026 21:49 utc | 17

Russia is very flexible with red lines or has none. This seriously dents the credibility of Russian deterrence capabilities. Exactly what NATO wanted to test out and weaken. Russian people are losing faith in its capabilities. Maidan Moskva or worse the collapse of the RF into smaller nations. Some will still justify Putin’s weaknesses who is increasingly becoming Gorbachev v2.0.

Posted by: Jason | May 17 2026 21:59 utc | 19

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 17 2026
 
Glenn Diesen, Ritter and John  Mearsheimer think exactly the same way. They have been saying it for months. Doctorow has been saying it for a year.
 
Saying Putin lost his deterrence because he allowed red lines to be crossed is neither Western MSM Wurlitzer feeds, with a good sprinkling of Russian “turbo-patriotism” or  fuelled by Western “intelligence” agencies, either.
 
Now just about everybody out with the MSM are saying it openly. When the MSM has never even mentioned it.
 
Putin has been weak Jeremy. It’s time you came back to the real world. Stop treating Putin like a god that can’t make mistakes. Not everything is 5d chess.
 
Lets see what happens after what’s happened this weekend ? Stop throwing labels against a wall to see if they will stick.
 
 
 
 

Posted by: Andrew | May 17 2026 22:04 utc | 21

@17 Russia can choose not to escalate and live in fear everyday like Gazans. No problem. But NATO and Ukies will escalate. Shooting the messenger won’t fix it. All targets in Moscow are civilian. A nuclear response is a must to keep their deterrence intact. Otherwise all and sundry will target Russia. At some point Russia might have to sell off Siberia to China – Xi’s plan which also involves bleeding Russia in a long war.

Posted by: Jason | May 17 2026 22:09 utc | 23

Glenn Diesen, Ritter and John Mearsheimer think exactly the same way. They have been saying it for months. Doctorow has been saying it for a year.

Posted by: Andrew | May 17 2026 22:04 utc | 22
 
Uh-huh, and somehow they are more qualified to make pronouncements about the Russian strategy than the Russian General Staff? The same General Staff who study military science for years; a proper science by the way, not the faux “sciences” of politics or economics.
 
Who really knows more about what Russia is doing and why they are doing it?
 
It is a classic trait of right-wing idealogues to believe they are more knowledgeable than anyone else.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 17 2026 22:16 utc | 25

[Columbo voice on ]
 
And just one more thing, ma’am, before I go, why is everybody still largely ignoring the political and social chaos within Ukraine?
 
Perhaps they are all scared about the prospect of the dissolution of Ukraine as a viable nation-state (we’ve already passed that point, but never mind) capable of being used as a ”battering ram” against Russia.
 
[Columbo voice off ]

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 17 2026 22:29 utc | 27

Russia can choose not to escalate and live in fear everyday like Gazans. No problem. But NATO and Ukies will escalate. Shooting the messenger won’t fix it. All targets in Moscow are civilian. A nuclear response is a must to keep their deterrence intact. Otherwise all and sundry will target Russia. At some point Russia might have to sell off Siberia to China – Xi’s plan which also involves bleeding Russia in a long war.Posted by: Jason | May 17 2026 22:09 utc | 24
 
You are right. But I think, Russia is frozen. It cannot make that decision. Just can not.

Posted by: Simon | May 17 2026 22:24 utc | 29
 
Oh fur fox ache, get a grip of yourself. Somehow, magically, you have access to more information resources, more human intel, more signal intel, more historical databases than the planners and strategists in the Russian General Staff.
 
Laughable!
 
Everyone knows what Russia should do better than the Russians themselves.
 
Such an unlimited fount of wisdom and advice, it is surprising how Russia has not decided to employ you all as consultants, advising them on what to do next and how to do it. Could be a lucrative gig there, if you can crack it…

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 17 2026 22:38 utc | 29

More on how Russia can take down Starlink satellites from LEO. Not only it has such multi-warhead AD missiles, but also nuclear powered laser satellites that can toast them individually.
 
https://x.com/SMO_VZ/status/2056114998452097417
 

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2026 22:48 utc | 31

Posted by: tobias cole | May 17 2026 21:00 utc | 13
 
Interesting proposals.
 
Posted by: spudski | May 17 2026 22:48 utc | 33
 
no.  Completely unrealistic.   He writes as if Russia has the resources to do all he says, and thej consequences of doing all he said.

Posted by: UWDude | May 17 2026 23:04 utc | 33

I see no compelling reason why Ukraine and Russia couldn’t have kept up peaceful co-existence.BUT. There are outsiders (not you) who profit from resource grabs to collateralize dying Empires. To that extent, I can agree that Ukraine and Russia (to a lesser degree) are being used by amoral forces.
Posted by: kupkee | May 17 2026 16:29 utc | 5
 
“Ukraine” includes Galicia which is now the western part of Ukraine. Galicia was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire but throughout it’s history it’s been passed around by so many countries that most cities have different names depending on who is occupying the territory at any give time. 
The Bolsheviks conquered Galicia in 1921 and combined with Novorossia and other bits of Russia to make the Ukraine SSR. Upon the dissolution of the USSR Ukraine kept the Ukraine SSR borders. The Galicians however have never accepted being Russian and have fought the Russians non stop since 1918. 
That’s the root of the problem. Modern Ukraine a la 2014 had a majority Russian speakers who wanted economic and cultural ties with Russia while the galicians wanted economic and cultural ties with Europe. The Galicians never accepted a democratically elected Russian friendly Ukrainian government hence the coup in 2014 and the civil war that followed. 
The Russian parts of modern Ukraine are the most mineral rich an agriculturally productive lands in Europe and resource poor Europe covets them so they arm fund and support Galician “Ukrainian Nationalists” to fight the Russians for control over these lands.
They will never stop. Europe is a resource poor backwater without Russian raw materials and agriculture. When the Austrian corporal spoke of lebensraum he meant primarily the Donbass, the Black sea coast and the caucasus oil fields … that was really what WW2 was all about. So they are going to fund Ukrainian nationalism until the Donbas is in their hands and won’t stop needling Russia until Putin is deposed and a western friendly government is in his place who will open the doors to the exploitation of Russian resources by EU investors.
What does Guatamala, Iran, libya, Cuba, Russia and China have in common? They all had revolutions that kicked out western companies and nationalized their resource extraction. The western powers … especially the USA … NEVER forget and they will wait as long as it take to punish anyone who dares to stand up to them.
That’s why Putin has to take back Russian lands by force because if he doesn’t put a stop to it in Ukraine the west won’t stop until they get Russia back to the state it was in in 1993 with western investors and Russian mafia ruling the country.
 

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 17 2026 23:12 utc | 35

Odessa being hammered. They gave Ukraine $300 billion and it still doesnt’ have air defense systems.
 
https://x.com/EthanLevins2/status/2056145889127698934

Posted by: unimperator | May 17 2026 23:24 utc | 37

Posted by: HB_Norica | May 17 2026 23:12 utc | 38
 
Galicia was added by Stalin in 1945. Novorossia was added by Lenin in 1922.

Posted by: Peter Williams | May 17 2026 23:41 utc | 39

the kid gloves are going to come off
 
I’m Thomas the Apostle. I’ll believe it when I see it. 

Posted by: unsightfulviews | May 17 2026 23:58 utc | 41

Once the RF Big Arrow offensive begins, there are several issues to keep in mind (I expect a major offensive before the end of the month):
– Begin with massive airstrikes by aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and yes use the Hazels for gosh sakes, on all high value logistical and military concentration targets in the path of the offensive…..leave nothing to chance.  Remember you are fighting not a war of attrition, but a war for your existence (much like 1941).
 
– Do not under any circumstances attempt to reduce the re-inforced festung fortifications in their, the UAF, secondary defense lines.  Reducing them will also reduce the offensive’s forward movement – do not do that.
 
– Keep moving at all costs by bypassing all strong points, isolate them, cut their commo and supply lines and keep moving.  Use the Patton formula – keep the enemy on his heals, never let him rest or regroup or resupply.
 
– Prepare a massive anti drone EW campaign, very near the start of the Big Arrow.  Disrupt all Starlink access.  Hit all drone c and c centers and destroy them.  Jam their frequencies.
 
– Make sure that RF partisans are alerted and can aid RF forces in the Odessa region in IDing UAF strong points and intell ops by foreign actors- such as the RN and MI6 centers, bases and c and c groups.  Hit them as the offensive starts.
 
– Protect all armored units with anti drone equipment – steel mesh nets, porcupine spikes and anti drone guns – 40mm bofors work well against drones !  Be prepared ! The drones are their only real defense weapon at this time.
 
– Hit and destroy all foreign bases and command centers as the offensive begins.
 
– Make sure that you have massive reserve forces ready, willing and able to exploit the breakthough of the UAF defense lines.  Make sure they can move quickly on orders, no delays, get ready, get prepared, and cover their advance with helo and fighter air cover – no long convoys stalled in line on major highways, ever (remember the RF 2022 40 km gridlocked convoy to Kieve fiasco, only by the grace of the almighty was a disaster averted in that one….OMgosh).
 
Get it done………crush NATO, remember the Krajina!

Posted by: tobias cole | May 18 2026 0:20 utc | 43

One telling thing about the “600 drones” attack on Russia/Moscow is that the massive bombardment of Ukraine that just occurred basically did nothing to degrade this capability. Because the parts are built in the EU/China and can be assembled in basements spread all over the place and snuck out at a moments notice. There’s almost nothing that can be done until the entire country is defeated. Hell, even a “rump Ukraine” that is often discussed could continue spitting out these drones indefinitely with EU backing. They won’t win a war (they are basically EU sponsored terrorism),  but they can cause a lot of internal problems in Russia (the point).

Posted by: Moonraker | May 18 2026 1:12 utc | 45

There’s almost nothing that can be done until the entire country is defeated.
Posted by: Moonraker | May 18 2026 1:12 utc | 55
 
 
Exactly right, and the only way to defeat Ukraine is through attritional warfare. Wearing down their ability to fight over x number of years. That’s why calls for Russian escalation, and Putin is a pussy because Ukraine crossed a red line and he didn’t do anything, are short-sighted. 

Posted by: James M. | May 18 2026 1:44 utc | 47

Posted by: Mike R | May 18 2026 2:02 utc | 58

The Strait is closed for the foreseeable future, while the Europoodles have declared their energy independence from Russia, leaving them with only expensive US hydrocarbons to fuel their economies.

You are right that they announced that but nonetheless EU imported more Russian gas in 2025 than before 2022. Random link: https://www.euractiv.com/news/eu-imports-of-russian-gas-highest-since-ukraine-invasion-report/
 
Of course, they’re paying much more than before and that’ll be even worse if after 2027 they have to pretend even harder the Russian gas they buy isn’t from Russia.

Posted by: Konami | May 18 2026 2:08 utc | 49

Posted by: James M. | May 18 2026 1:44 utc | 57 “Exactly right, and the only way to defeat Ukraine is through attritional warfare. “
.
The problem is Russia is getting attritioned too.
 

Posted by: ed4 | May 18 2026 2:36 utc | 51

Posted by: tobias cole | May 18 2026 0:20 utc | 48 “I expect a major offensive before the end of the month”
.
Wow, the end of this month?  
.
My prediction is that there will not be a successful Russian offense before the end of May or June.  My definition of success is the occupation of  an additional 1,000 km by June 30th.

Posted by: ed4 | May 18 2026 2:47 utc | 53

Posted by: spudski | May 17 2026 23:39 utc | 41
 
you can start with the escorts for all commercial vessels part.  It the most glaring display of a complete misunderstanding of how this all works.

Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2026 4:16 utc | 55

Doesn’t Iran know when Russia crumbles, Itan is next?  
Why isn’t Khamenei helping Russia more?   He must be a traitor….
 
 
Remember that horseshit except the roles if Iran and Russia reversed?
 
The  helmeroids and NAFO bots wete telling us Russia had to help Iran, or Irsn would be crushed, and that Russia is not helping because Putin is a zionist,blah blah blah blah blah.
 

Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2026 4:23 utc | 57

Question to AI:what are the opinions among chinese social media about russias actions in ukraine? Do they think Russia would have been split into many regions and western oligarchs would have obtained russias resources or do they think Russia could have acted differently?
AI answers:Chinese social media opinions are intensely polarized, reflecting a deep divide between nationalist supporters of Russia and more liberal, anti-war netizens. While some segments believe the invasion was a necessary, unavoidable response to NATO expansion, others are highly critical of Russia’s strategic choices.
Views on Russia Splitting and Western Oligarchs
The “Necessary Preemptive Strike” Narrative: A strong and vocal faction among Chinese netizens (often referred to as the “hawkish” or pro-war camp) firmly believes that Russia was backed into a corner. They argue that if Russia had not taken military action, the West, led by the US, would have succeeded in Balkanizing Russia and seizing its vast natural resources.
The Geopolitical Domino Theory: This group often asserts that a weakened or divided Russia would serve the strategic interests of the US, allowing Western oligarchs to economically plunder the nation. In this view, Russia’s actions, however brutal, are framed as a desperate but vital defense of its sovereignty against Western hegemony.
Views on Russia Acting Differently
The Pacifist and Critical Camp: A substantial number of Chinese netizens (the “pacifist” or anti-war faction) strongly disagree with the pro-war consensus. They view Russia’s invasion as a violation of sovereign territorial integrity.
Critique of Putin’s Strategy: This segment of social media users—often consisting of younger, more globally connected, or highly educated individuals—blames Russian leadership for poor strategic judgment. They argue that Russia could have handled the situation diplomatically, that the war is a catastrophic historical mistake, and that Moscow ultimately fell into a trap of its own making.
 
Note: Chinese authorities enforce strict control over online discussions regarding the war, amplifying state-aligned pro-Russian or anti-Western narratives while quickly censoring highly critical, anti-war voices or crasser discussions
*******
I find it interesting that ‘highky educated individuals’ has this west-aligned view, indicating to me that beyond science and independent thinking within science chinese talents are vulnerable to western influence.
It would interesting to know how the chinese ‘hawks’ compare in terms of IQ with those western aligned ‘highly educated’
 
Are the ‘highly educated’ even aware of the true nature of the western mindset? How do they view the Epstein context?

Posted by: petergrfstrm | May 18 2026 5:21 utc | 59

Food for thoughts :

1. Feb 2023 a train derails in East Palestine, Ohio causing a major chemical incident. After this event, there was no more mention of Ukraine willing to (or planning to) use chemical weapon against Russia
2. Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge was destroyed on March 26, 2024, after being struck by the cargo ship Dali. After this date there were “only” 2 major attempts to destroy the Kerch bridge (Aug 2024 by ATACMS and June 2025 by underwater explosives)

 
Messages sent and received?

Posted by: Asian Frog | May 18 2026 5:52 utc | 61

After asking AI again (…)
Posted by: petergrfstrm | May 18 2026 5:47 utc | 70

 
WYFIWYG : for AI, what you feed is what you get. This AI of yours, it is reading what sources to summarise what you posted? I find surprising that Chinese would conclude about “Russian military incompetence” while China hasn’t been in a land war since 1979 (against Vietnam), and that was not major success.
 
All of us armchair generals can criticise a slow SMO, but how long was the Great Northern war against Sweden? 21 years. Russia won.

Posted by: Asian Frog | May 18 2026 6:03 utc | 63

Zelenograd is just 35 km from Moscow. Trying to claim that it didn’t reach Mosscow itself, functionally speaking, is like claiming that the nazis in 1941 didn’t get to Moscow when they penetrated into the suburb of Khimki, within sight of the spires of the cathedrals around the Kremlin. Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | May 17 2026 23:53 utc | 43
_______________________
A Nazi meme still alive and kicking! I challenge anyone to claim that he can see the Kremlin spires that are 12 miles away from Khimki. Even if they had at hand the very best Nazi Zeiss binoculars they wouldn’t be able to see them.

Posted by: Moscow Exile | May 18 2026 6:28 utc | 65

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | May 18 2026 0:28 utc | 47
 
The golden standard for big arrow offensives are no longer measured in hundreds or even tens of kilometers, but by single kilometers. This is due to tight drone control of the front, making the standard massing of forces obsolete, and large scale attacks obsolete. 
 
So instead we have much smaller groups of soldiers/vehicles and much more modest/shorter range objectives for attacks.
 
So you have to really use a higher magnification to see the offensives. It’s just that the scale has become smaller.
 
I would say that it is Ukraine that was still trying to use ‘big arrow offensives’ as in the eastern Zaporozhye direction recently, they advanced quite a bit, bypassed RUAF strongholds but never managed to take them. Now when RUAF launched its own counter-attack all those AFU groups stuck in the fields or tree lines got exposed even more to artillery and FPV drones, enabling RUAF to reverse their gains and reconnect all those ‘isolated’ strongholds, more or less into a coherent front.

Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2026 6:50 utc | 67

OK i get it , Russia weak because drone attacks. Few civilians were injured and a couple of gasoline tanks exploded. How can they ever recover from that !?!? 
Ukraine sometimes successfully gives Russia blue balls, isn’t VVP just terrible ?  
 

Posted by: 667 | May 18 2026 6:54 utc | 69

Any thoughts on the Moscow drone attack? For some reason, Diesen seems agitated. https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/2055996302576500792 
Posted by: Sean | May 17 2026 20:56 utc | 12

 
Well, Diesen is right of course IMO. I had exactly the same reaction in private as he put out in public.
 
The Russians have probably planned for years how they would react in the extreme situation that has actually now occurred. However, they are as restrained as can be.
 
So, we’ll have to wait and see. But I think we won’t have to wait for very long now.

Posted by: Avtonom | May 18 2026 8:49 utc | 71

Any thoughts on the Moscow drone attack? For some reason, Diesen seems agitated. https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/2055996302576500792 Posted by: Sean | May 17 2026 20:56 utc | 12
I’m not agitated, unlike Diesen, who lives in Norway. 
I’ve not seen anyone “agitated” in Moscow.
I live in the middle of Moscow, and right now, I’m setting off by train for my dacha, situated 50 moles southwest of the Kremlin.
I’ll keep my eyes peeled for drones. 
 

Posted by: Moscow Exile | May 18 2026 9:04 utc | 73

They can argue like this:
1. Germany is openly violating the 2+4 treaty.
Posted by: Konami | May 17 2026 20:31 utc | 10

I frequently sit and wonder whether it matters or not that presently Germany is occupied, has US bases on its soil and has not done a peace treaty with the USA or the UK – ergo, whether the violations were done by Germany on its own or at the behest of whoever’s occupying it (and by ‘foreign agents’ installed by the CIA).

Posted by: joey_n | May 18 2026 10:36 utc | 75

Posted by: UWDude | May 18 2026 4:17  “Nobody cares.  Your prefictions are always worthless.”
.
Hmm,  how many have I made?  Whose have been more accurate?
 

Posted by: ed4 | May 18 2026 10:51 utc | 77

Hmm,  how many have I made?  Whose have been more accurate? 
Posted by: ed4 | May 18 2026 10:51 utc | 80
 
Again, nobody cares. Are you actually keeping track of your “predictions?” Do you have them bookmarked? Printed out and framed on your wall? That’s sad on multiple levels.

Posted by: James M. | May 18 2026 10:59 utc | 79

Either way the most likely path here is there is a coiled spring building up for a response accounting all past Nato provocation, and it could be massive, with interest.
Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2026 10:43 utc | 79

 
Possible, but the Nato reaction in Europe would probably be everything that didn’t happen in West Asia: A full-scale and extremely violent direct war. I think that Russia’s restraint is due to their wanting to keep a somehow good relation to Europe. Maybe that’s unrealistic, but it’s still a way of seeing things.
 
Russia’s relations with, and probably aspirations for, their European neighbours are quite different from Iran’s relation with their neighbours not only due to culture, but the two situations also differ very much from each other.
 
Also, we have to consider that probably as many as 90% Europeans seem to be totally brainwashed into believing that Russia is the most evil power in this world and must be defeated. This is both laughable and extremely dangerous, and it’s gone so far that I think it’s unrepairable by now.

Posted by: Avtonom | May 18 2026 11:15 utc | 81

Notable that one of the regular posters of Youtube videos featuring the likes of Helmer and Doctorow didn’t deem it necessary or worthwhile to post this link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0fQsI6L6Lo featuring Col. Daniel Davis talking with Dmitry Polyanski. Hopefully the link won’t need repeated posts trying to correct the address…
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 17 2026 21:08 utc | 14

 
Very impactful interview. Thanks Jeremy.
 

Posted by: tucenz | May 18 2026 11:45 utc | 83

Posted by: ed4 | May 18 2026 11:30 utc | 85
 
 
I was being facetious, but you actually do keep it bookmarked. A blog you don’t own, that you post on anonymously, so you  can go back and look at other anonymous posts by random people you don’t know? That’s just bizarre, unless you’re an agent collating a list for some purpose… Well thanks for outing yourself. I’ll have to be careful with my posts from now on.
 
By the way the prediction that Russia has already won is not necessarily wrong. It’s akin to saying the Nazis lost/Soviets won , depending on perspective, the moment Operation Barbarossa started. As for the “costs” that you seem so concerned about, a safe and secure Russia from NATO invasion, may be worth whatever men and materiel are lost. You can bookmark that and look it up in a few years.

Posted by: James M. | May 18 2026 11:59 utc | 85

Near the end of the inevitable conquest of fascism by vast armees of proxy Russian killers – some Germans who really believed they were not ziotools – star ther  throwing their shit at London!   V1’s and V2’s which could have been extended to reach Washington and New York. 
 
Because they knew they had been betrayed by their secret partners pretending to be allies of the USSR. 
 
 
It’s only a matter of time that the drones and rockets in the crazed banderist ukropian hands are turned west to Berlin Paris and London. To the natzio bases they were trained in. They may even get hold of a rocket to Washington and NY this time. 
 
 
Such absurdity that the nafo/HasbaRat sock trolls still demand Big Arrows to finally lure the RF into a ‘full scale invasion’ and this time they are quite happy to advertise their desperate ‘unprovocation’!
 
 
The subterfuge and Narrative control is all wasted. The Azov banderists are finally waking up to the fact they were just sacrificial sheep. they have raised their lambs to equally be slaughtered. They are forcing the ukropians who do not want to be that and dragging them to the fronts to be meat shields. Demanding the Russians come and eat them so they can be extended. That ship sailed a long time ago with the first punch and the supposed 3 days narrative. 
 
 
As I have long said the Rope-a-dope strategy with the incessant little bags for sucking the dumb natzios in has already won the war. de-militarisation is largely accomplished. 
 
Only the denazification and removal of the natzos back to west Europe remains. 
 
when monkeys throw their shit at you it’s best not to get nearer and get covered in more of it. 
 
Just destroy the tree they are sitting in. I understand that the oreshnik target was visited by other missiles yesterday! Still haven’t seen any photos of what damage there was there or what targets. 
 
The Old Bastards are being called out openly now. Soros is a persona non grata officially announced after his ragtag puppet and techbros and banker CEOs got smacked down in Beijing.
 
Xi staring down the key player in the line up by shaking his hand a little longer than the rest with full eye contact must have made that hit shit himself! 
 
So as the bots wobbl,  the old champion of the Slavs who formed to defeat that old bastard white tiger khazar kings a thousand years ago – once again stares back and asks the shapeshiffter dynasts –  IS THAT ALL YOU GOT? 

Posted by: DunGroanin | May 18 2026 12:23 utc | 87

Posted by: unimperator | May 18 2026 10:54 utc | 81

NATO Secretary General Rutte himself warned the European Parliament: the EU would have to spend up to 10% of GDP on its militaries – and that could still be insufficient. A senior US official told Reuters that a 200,000‑strong force costs $55bn per year in‑theatre – double the garrison cost.

He indeed said that, in an attempt to convince EUrope that they can’t go without US — so those are Washington’s orders on Rutte/NATO. Here’s his quote with a bit more context, from https://fox59.com/news/national-world/ap-international/ap-nato-chief-wishes-good-luck-to-those-who-think-europe-can-defend-itself-without-us-help/

Rutte: If you really want to go it alone, forget that you can ever get there with 5%. It will be 10%. You have to build up your own nuclear capability. That costs billions and billions of euros.

In countries like Germany, 10% GDP translates to 90% state budget. This got me wondering: what where the highest sustained military spendings in history? Here’s some data. Clearly, these figures aren’t precise — a lot of military spending is hidden in civilian domains, so the numbers are a lower bound.
 
WW2 numbers, in percentages of national income:

• USA: 1% (1939), 43% (1943)
• Soviet Union: 17% (1940), 61% (1943)
• Germany: 23% (1939), 52% (1941), 70% (1943)
• Japan: 22% (1939), 27% (1941), 76% (1944)

USA after WW2, in percentage of GDP:

• Korean war 1950s: 14%
• Vietnam war 1960s: 9.5%
• Cold War (Reagan): 7%
• post Cold War low (2000): 3%
• after 9/11/2000 (“war on terror”): 6%
• now: 4-5%

Other countries with significant military spending, again in % of GDP:

• North Korea 2010: 20-30%
• Israel: 30% (1975), 9% (2025)
• Ukraine: 17% (whatever GDP means here)
• Russia: 8%
• Poland 2026: 4.5%
• many EU countries and Norway 2026: 3-4%

All these numbers are politicial/politicized but IMO still interesting. Because in daily life, most discussion is about state budget (this many % on social welfare, that on education, so much on debt service etc.), finally some figures to roughly compare those:

• rich EU countries have approximately half their GDP as government spending (Sweden, Germany 50%; Finland, France 57%)
• other major countries: USA 34%, Japan 40%, Australia 27%

In Germany, 5% GDP = 45% budget. Rutte’s 10% GDP = 90% budget, possible only when losing a war. Weidmanns Heil!

Posted by: Konami | May 18 2026 12:39 utc | 89

Posted by: Konami | May 18 2026 12:39 utc | 92
War is not just about throwing money at problems, it’s mostly about resources. Speaking of which ; VVP is in Beijing tomorrow. 

Posted by: Savonarole | May 18 2026 13:15 utc | 91

@English Outsider | May 18 2026 12:06 utc | 89

From mine, it’s a real bastard, watching the perfectly viable countries of the West, my own one of the more vociferous amongst the Europoodles alas, screw up their own economies so comprehensively.

Good comment.  I was at a loss for words to describe my reaction.  Yep, it’s a real bastard watching the EU/UK commit economic seppuku.

Posted by: cirsium | May 18 2026 13:17 utc | 93

Posted by: tobias cole | May 17 2026 21:00 utc | 13
 
Interesting proposals.
 
Posted by: spudski | May 17 2026 22:48 utc | 33
 
no. Completely unrealistic. He writes as if Russia has the resources to do all he says, and thej consequences of doing all he said.
 
Posted by: UWDude | May 17 2026 23:04 utc | 36
 
The most interesting thing is that if you swap the names around, US and Ukraine had been trying to use tobias’ strategy all along. For their troubles all the big arrow offensives just ended up chopped up by Russian artillery, missiles and drones.
 
The strategy Russia prefers seems to be hunkering down like a rock while grinding down Ukrainian soldiers and NATO hardware until they give up. 
 

Posted by: Winter | May 18 2026 13:30 utc | 95

Germany is about to violate the 2+4 treaty by placing a NATO headquarter in Rostock, former GDR territory. 
 
This sort of provocation is hardly imaginable without serious influence by foreign powers. Indeed the notorious Kanzlerakte specifies the right of Western allies to involve themselves in decisions on the highest level, effectively rendering Germany an occupied country. Please note that I’m not qualified to name the exact legal status of this arrangement. 

Posted by: persiflo | May 18 2026 13:38 utc | 97

Russia has no real incentive to strike “the West” directly in any meaningful way. Even if Russia feels provoked now, there is unlikely to be any direct escalation against NATO.
Why? Consider the fact that commercial ships are still sailing in and out of Russian ports, even while being harassed by NATO. There are also many Russian warships currently operating in areas where they would suddenly find themselves in a very difficult position if Russia launched a direct attack on NATO.
I would only start to worry seriously if we saw a total recall of Russian warships from the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean, the English Channel, and the North Atlantic. Until that happens, I do not believe anything major will occur.
Ukraine may be hit harder than yesterday, but that is probably the extent of it.

Posted by: John Archer | May 18 2026 13:56 utc | 99