Iran notified that 30 ships have contacted the newly established PGSA to arrange transit.   
Posted by: Suresh | May 21 2026 20:04 utc | 1
 
    IIRC, Macgregor told Nap that 26 ships made arrangements with Iran and were escorted through Hormuz.  He ought to be close to good info.

Posted by: kupkee | May 21 2026 21:32 utc | 4

  IIRC, Macgregor told Nap that 26 ships made arrangements with Iran and were escorted through Hormuz.  He ought to be close to good info.
Posted by: kupkee | May 21 2026 21:32 utc | 4
 
Yes, those guys do get good intel, even though they like everyone else are not infallible. (see O/T for a follow-up on that topic)
 
Update on that Beit Shemesh explosion.
Telegram: View @intelslava

Posted by: Suresh | May 21 2026 22:17 utc | 6

kupkee, Suresh@6:  
 
See also: http://www.timesofisrael.com
 
  ‘Iran guards say they ‘coordinated’ 26 ships passing through Hormuz since yesterday’
 

Posted by: John Gilberts | May 21 2026 22:33 utc | 8

Posted by: jpc | May 21 2026 20:18 utc | 2
 
Unlikely to attack Iran while the Hajj Pilgrimage is taking place in Mecca in Saudi Arabia. Relations are bad enough with MBS.
 
The rest is just distractions.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | May 21 2026 22:52 utc | 10

60% of Global sulphuric acid is used to produce Fertilizer, with China produced 40%+ Globally.
 
This is going to be a very big issue, the find it phase of this war and disruption is coming for the Drumpf administration and all of us:
 
Major uses of sulphuric acids include:
 
1. Fertilizer production
    * The largest use globally.
    * Used to make phosphate fertilizers such as superphosphate and ammonium sulfate.
    * Critical for modern industrial agriculture.
2. Petroleum refining
    * Removes impurities from gasoline and other fuels.
    * Used in alkylation processes to improve fuel quality.
3. Chemical manufacturing
    * Used to produce:
        * hydrochloric acid
        * nitric acid
        * detergents
        * dyes
        * pigments
        * explosives
        * synthetic fibers
        * pharmaceuticals
4. Battery acid
    * The electrolyte in traditional lead-acid car batteries.
    * Essential for starting, lighting, and ignition systems in many vehicles.
5. Metal processing
    * Used for “pickling” steel and iron:
        * removes rust
        * removes oxidation before galvanizing or plating
    * Important in mining and ore processing.
6. Industrial dehydration
    * Extremely effective at removing water.
    * Used as a drying agent in laboratories and industry.
7. Paper and textile manufacturing
    * Used in pulp processing, rayon production, and textile treatment.
8. Water treatment
    * Helps control pH in industrial water systems and wastewater treatment.
9. Explosives and military industry
    * Important precursor in manufacturing compounds like TNT and nitroglycerin.
10. Semiconductor and electronics manufacturing
 
* Used for cleaning and etching during chip fabrication.

Posted by: KillerDoll | May 21 2026 23:18 utc | 12

RE: Posted by: Ornot | May 21 2026 23:20 utc | 13
 
Guessing reason is more practical.
 
 
The reality is nothing Iran offers for concession regarding “uranium” or nuclear enrichment, or nuclear issue would matter at all.
 
Total destruction or capitulation is the only acceptable US/Israeli goal.
 
So, the wise men have decided to stand and fight.
 
They’re simply being practical & realistic.
Pretty certain Russia & China understand that as well.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 21 2026 23:40 utc | 14

Total destruction or capitulation is the only acceptable US/Israeli goal. So, the wise men have decided to stand and fight. They’re simply being practical & realistic.Pretty certain Russia & China understand that as well.
Posted by: Trubind1 | May 21 2026 23:40 utc | 14
 
The fact that Iran offered to use its stockpile as fuel in the Oman negotiation is all the proof anyone needed that the nuclear issue was an always an excuse.
 
It is and has always been about Balkanisation of Iran, same with Russia, and the same with China.
 
Divide and conquer, feast on the spoils of War. The God of Mammon demands must be met.

Posted by: Suresh | May 21 2026 23:55 utc | 16

Another random thought… probably 70 percent of patrons in this saloon probably agree with me that DJT is certifiably insane … and his madness gets worse every day. His trusted advisors are all proven sycophants and as dumb as he is … if “leadership” actually matters, we all know the ending of this tale won’t be pretty for America … but, again, that might be the shock to the system Americans need to hit rock bottom and maybe revert to first principles and the re-birth process can finally commence. That would be one long-term silver lining … but get your Prepper supplies while you still can.

Posted by: GMST | May 22 2026 0:18 utc | 18

Sulphur is also crucial in the vulcanization of natural rubber for vehicle tires and many other rubber goods.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | May 22 2026 0:29 utc | 20

Strangely missing are the Pizza and Gay bar indexes from news feed.

Posted by: Suresh | May 22 2026 1:10 utc | 22

“How can Iran be expected to agree to transfer enriched uranium so easily in front of an American president like Trump?”

 
[Posted by: Ornot | May 21 2026 23:20 utc | 13]
 
 
Any American “president”.  Trump is just an inflamed pustule, merely a symptom of the disease that is the Epstein Empire. 

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | May 22 2026 1:46 utc | 24

@Posted by: GeorgeWendell | May 22 2026 0:19 utc | 19
 
Saudi Arabia is not going to want a restart to the war in the middle of the Hajj, with about  1.5 million foreign worshippers visiting. It runs from May 25th to the 29th. In addition, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and the UAE will very much understand the level of destruction that may be carried out by Iran if an attack is carried out from their soil, so may very probably bar the use of their bases and airspace for the attack. That would then significantly limit the amount of sorties that the US and Israel can fly against Iran.
 
If flights from Israel and Jordan can only use Iraqi air space, it greatly limits the attack area to north eastern and central eastern Iran. The US and Israeli jets will be loath to fly over Iran as they were previously. Attacks from the south can only be carried out with carrier aircraft, from two carriers (The Gerald R. Ford is leaving theatre after 300 days at sea). There will be no ground invasion due to the lack of the GCC states bases and airspace, together with the now blistering summer temperatures. The number of offensive stand off missiles has also been significantly denuded, can the US risk using even more of these? The replacement time would be 3-5 years at least, with much dependency on the supply of rare earth elements. China has banned the export of REEs for military use. The US would be in no position to fight a major war for years. The US carriers would need to stay out of the reach of the Iranian anti-ship missiles, and if China and Russia have supplied new anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems that complicates things even more.
 
If the US and Israel go after the oil and gas production and export infrastructure there is a high probability of the Iranians taking out Israel’s desalination (which provide 85% of drinking water and 50% of overall water usage) and natural gas infrastructure (70% of electricity production). Israel is a very small country with a very target rich environment, while Iran is a vast country with eleven times the population. With the THAAD and Patriot interceptor supplies greatly diminished, as well as the Israeli own-built interceptor system it would not be long before missiles and even drones would be able to hit Israel. That would also open the way for the Hezbollah missiles and drones. Such an attack could also continue the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for many months, which would greatly affect the US even though it is a net oil exporter, and very greatly impact the US vassals in Europe, South Korea and Japan. 
 
Another possibility is for a showy operation against Cuba to cover up a US retreat from the Iran theatre. The media would dutifully follow orders to remove Iran from the forefront, possibly with some kind of ceasefire with Iran that will be allowed to become de facto with negotiations quietly dragging on.
 
 

Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 22 2026 1:50 utc | 26

The war gave Iran an improved position :

• de facto control of Hormuz
• toll income
• Iran population supporting the government
• moles found and eliminated
• destroyed US regional radar arrays (weather-changing?) : better weather
• destroyed regional US bases : more difficult for sudden unprovoked attacks
• US bases seen (by KSA, GCC) as a problem more than a protection
• US bluff revealed : the US mighty Navy can’t stop chinese tankers in international waters

 
So, I guess Iran is satisfied with the status quo, they don’t need to compromise on anything.
 
The US is stuck with a situation they can’t improve. The US situation can only improve if the Parasite just dies off.

Posted by: Asian Frog | May 22 2026 1:59 utc | 28

Good luck taking care of your family without oil to power your vehicle and fertilisers to grow your food. 
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | May 22 2026 1:42 utc | 24
 

Grow food? Food comes from the supermarket. And petrol comes from the petrol station. Without oil, we can steam our food instead of frying it.
/sarc
(wait till the White House discovers the relation between fertilizers and food, between Hormuz and oil and petrol at the station)

Posted by: Asian Frog | May 22 2026 2:11 utc | 30

Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 22 2026 1:50 utc | 27
 
Thanks for your reply and more extensive reasoning behind both the impact of Haaj in Saudi Arabia, and the diversion to Cuba on Trumped -up charges with Raul Castro. 
My only thoughts as to why Iran has not attacked Israel’s desalination plants is that given the country is roughly 50% populated by widely dispersed Palestinian people throughout much of the territory, they would also be impacted by the lack of potable water.  I wonder if in the end it may be a ground invasion in Israel that could take place. I have read that this has been feared as recently as 2025 within certain Israeli circles.
 

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | May 22 2026 2:35 utc | 32

Re USS Ford  & Boxer
 
USS Ford is in its home port Norfolk VA
Boxer is in Singapore. 
 
https://news.usni.org/2026/05/18/usni-news-fleet-and-marine-tracker-may-18-2026

Posted by: golddigger | May 22 2026 3:43 utc | 34

Posted by: Roger Boyd | May 22 2026 1:50 utc | 27
 
Thank you for taking the time to clarify this.
 
Many people make fanciful assumptions or believe the lies of Trump and his associates simply because they lack this overall view of the situation.
 
I would just like to add three things:
 
1) The US doesn’t have troops in the region for a ground operation, and they have lost all the bases that could have been used for that purpose.
They also lack the supply logistics and air cover for such an operation.
 
2) An air campaign is complicated by the fact that most of the air bases in the region are within range of Iranian missiles, in addition to the likely refusal of the Arab countries.
There is also a serious shortage of jet fuel.
 
Whether they want to take off from Israel, Jordan, or further afield, there will be the problem of in-flight refueling, which the Arab countries will probably refuse in their airspace, and which would be risky over Iraq.
 
The Americans risk losing all power projection capabilities with the loss of the majority of their refueling aircraft.
 
3) Finally, there is the case of Israel, which is no longer able to defend itself against Iranian missiles.
 
Even if the Americans are considering a short strike campaign, Iran has no obligation to cease its reprisals against occupied Palestine until it achieves its desired outcome.
 
This provides ample grounds for urging the aggressors to exercise restraint, despite their bellicose rhetoric.

Posted by: Sebgo | May 22 2026 4:28 utc | 36

Rock the Cradle, Ep 25: Prof Maryam Jamshidi: ‘Shadow Fleets’ Are Not Illegal’
 
https://www.youtube.com/@thecradlemedia/videos
 
“The legal case for Iran’s control of Hormuz.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | May 22 2026 5:41 utc | 38

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/trump-cancels-last-minute-attack
 
 
I doubt the zionist oligarch owned obtuse obese orange orang utan actually had any plans to reattack Iran. It was just more market manipulation as usual.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | May 22 2026 6:12 utc | 40

Larry Johnson today:
 
“The Hollywood version of how the CIA and the President interact is largely bunk. That fantasy version sees the CIA providing a President with irrefutable facts and the President, in response, eagerly embracing the intel findings. The reality is different… The President, surrounded by sycophants, has already decided what the narrative will be and refuses to accept the CIA assessment. We see that same pattern on display here, i.e., with Trump declaring the obliteration of all Iranian military capabilities while the CIA presents a diametrically opposed picture. ”
 
https://sonar21.com/looks-like-cia-analysts-are-doing-a-pretty-good-job-regarding-iran/
 

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | May 22 2026 6:44 utc | 42

A journalist noticed that Gmail’s AI suggested she “improve” the sentence “Israel’s genocide in Gaza” by replacing “genocide” with the word “actions”.
 
An article from September 2025 revealed that the Israeli government paid a U.S. company, Clock Tower X LLC, to, among other things, create new websites to influence how AI GPT models such as ChatGPT, which are trained on vast amounts of data from every corner of the internet, frame topics and respond to them — all on behalf of Israel.
 
As part of this work, the firm will also use search engine optimization software MarketBrew AI, a predictive AI platform that helps clients adapt to algorithms and promote their work on search engines like Google and Bing, to “improve the visibility and ranking of relevant narratives.”
 
https://x.com/AnnelleSheline/status/2057141592947863841?s=20

Posted by: UWDude | May 22 2026 7:20 utc | 44

War Time Cafe, Ep 52, with Laith Marouf & Dr Jamal Wakim: ‘Empire Pivot to Latin America’
 
https://www.youtube.com/@tvfreepalestine
 
“Laith & Dr Jamal Wakim discuss the possibility of return to confrontation between USA & Iran, the situation in Lebanon, Syria & Iraq, and imperial plots against Cuba, Bolivia & Colombia.”
 
 
Ehsan Safarnejad with Vanessa Beeley
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsLxHJcp4ig
 
“Have the Iranians just checkmated an increasingly frustrated Trump & Israel? I sit down with Iranian analyst Ehsan Safarnejad to talk about the current situation in the Hormuz Strait and Iran’s preparations for the next stage of the long war.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | May 22 2026 8:00 utc | 46

Trump won’t get what he wants from a resisting Iran – but can take anything he wants from ‘we the sheeple’.
 
Trump’s ‘Anti-Weaponization Fund’…
 
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/05/22/mgey-m22.html
 
“The fusion of the gangster-oligarchy and the state.”
 
 

Posted by: John Gilberts | May 22 2026 8:58 utc | 48

The seemingly erratic US policy does make sense (and Trump may not be as stupid as he seems);
 
https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-armed-robbery-world-energy-supply-petrogas-dollar/5924769

Posted by: Michael | May 22 2026 9:54 utc | 50

see the photo at the link
 
 
 
https://x.com/MahmoudMassri15/status/2057549316688925169
Mahmoud Massri | مَحْمُود 🇵🇸  @MahmoudMassri15 
 
We will never forget how this young man tried to save his mother, dragging her in the most basic way—until an Israeli soldier suddenly fired a shell at them, killing them both instantly.
 

Posted by: michaelj72 | May 22 2026 10:03 utc | 52

Robber Barons and Oil supply by: Michael | May 22  | 50 and 51https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-armed-robbery-world-energy-supply-petrogas-dollar/5924769<=The human slaves in the City of Chicago loved the notorious inhibition-era gangster Al Capone? Capone gave to charities and supported public events from the wealth he extorted and the pain and deaths his mafia inflicted.

Posted by: sanke | May 22 2026 10:57 utc | 54

Iran War Summary: Week Twelve, 22nd May 2026: May be Useful to Some: (1) Iran War Summary: Week Twelve – by Dr. Rob Campbell

Posted by: The Busker | May 22 2026 11:53 utc | 56

Strangely missing are the Pizza and Gay bar indexes from news feed.
 
Posted by: Suresh | May 22 2026 1:10 utc | 22

 
That doesn’t surprise me. Let’s see how this goes on. Will hacker groups enter the cashier systems of local Domino’s and post readouts online? 

Posted by: persiflo | May 22 2026 11:56 utc | 58

Who cares? Care about your family, the world economy doesn’t matter.
 
Posted by: The Far Side | May 21 2026 21:08 utc | 3

Sometimes its better to be thought an idiot, than to post and remove any doubt.

Posted by: Doctor Eleven | May 22 2026 13:57 utc | 60

As an aside, believe it or not, someone spooked Trump over him joining Netanyahu at the World Court in a war crimes prosecution.  If the oppostion takes over, that is the one sure way to finish him off after nearly a decade of failure.
Trump Spooked Over Iran War Crimes – Larry Klayman

Posted by: circumspect | May 22 2026 14:28 utc | 62

RE:
“….US to freeze the circumstance as is more or less, while fully digesting Gaza, West Bank and Lebanon; leaving little for Iran to fight for”.
“Any combination of events could unfold, so it is pointless guessing really.”
Posted by: Ornot | May 22 2026 2:14 utc | 31
 
Not really pointless,  at least gives some path of trajectory.
 
US is in no position to freeze this conflict.  As everyday costs mount.  Globally & locally. As for Lebanon, West Bank, Gaza… their hand actually weakens.
 
Sure, they’re killing, starving & displacing a lot of civilians,  however, their own civilians continue to flee, and since gorilla warfare has resumed,  they will never be able to build a single thing, lest their backhoes & bulldozers will be hit with drones. Their efforts will be thwarted relentlessly for years.
 
Hezbollah has effectively told Lebanon political class to go pound salt.
 
The ME will never return to normalcy or status quo since the October 7th prison break.
 
Followed by Irans prison break February 28th.
 
 The plan for the “new Middle East” has become a New New Middle East plan.
 
Not single missile to Israel needs to fly.
 
They’re finished.  The Petro-dollar, the USA credit card… gone.

Posted by: Trubind1 | May 22 2026 15:18 utc | 64

@Giyane | May 22 2026 9:37 utc | 49
Whatever Iranians now might do it imports that they have been deeply brainwashed by British Thavistock methods before. That was how the  British Broadcast Coorporation significantly transformed Iran the last time. The Shah understood it too late and then said I dont have to ask Intelligence. It suffices to switch on the BBC. There was also influence on local tribe leaders on the country. Pushing antidevelopment. The americans although they too have Thavistock methods in some institutes following the British original didnt use that as much back then so part of american intel didnt have the same grasp as the British. The US with colour revolutions are more into the logistics of massmovements while the British agenda was based on the deeper layers of the minds of humans. Though both the US/UK had the same Malthusian Zero Growth Intentions and had to get rid of the Shah since he bet on independence and nuclear power. And he didnt do the preferred kind of deals with their oil industry anymore. The US/UKs line has usually been to cause all sorts of trouble for efficient technology and it is only relatively recently that there is a pushback from poor countries.
 
The destruction caused by US/UK is hard do swallow. Is there any country they havent sabotaged? I recently realised that the Aspen Institute, that was involved in the sabotage of Irans industry in the 1970s, also played a role in imposing the Greens in Germany on that nation and causing all the damage in sabotaging nuclear power. Those fledgling environmentalists were apparently paid by Robert O Anderson of the Aspen Institute. And this kind of Zero-growth  agenda is still ongoing, for example in connection with the financing or ESG-rules for small modular reactors. The US/UK and their partner institutes do everything they can to twart development everywhere and to make sure nations depend on fossile energy that they can (or could until recently) more easily monopolise.
 They cant do it with nuclear power so they complicate the regulations to cause delay i.e. to sabotage the development. Usually related to sustainability. Russia and China are resisting the western sabotage but they havent yet added so many reactors to the countries in need. Both Chernobyl and Harrisburg were sabotaged to destroy the nuclear power market. Thereby saving the US/UKs oligarchy.

Posted by: petergrfstrm | May 22 2026 16:04 utc | 66

Good luck taking care of your family without oil to power your vehicle and fertilisers to grow your food. 
 
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | May 22 2026 1:42 utc | 23
 
It appears you are just as uninformed about food production as you are about geopolitical issues. If one practices regenerative farming nature provides all necessary nutrients for excellent crop growth. I  have never used any chemical fertilizers, pesticides, or herbicides of any kind and consistently produce sizes and quantities that are simply not possible with modern industrial agricultural practices. 

Posted by: Screwdriver | May 22 2026 16:23 utc | 68

Screwdriver 69
 
Good on you, mate.

Posted by: Giyane | May 22 2026 17:07 utc | 70

@ Screwdriver | May 22 2026 16:23 utc | 69
 
All well and good until one realizes that large swaths of the population do not own or have access to arable land, and that a large-scale conversion to regenerative/organic farming cannot occur overnight.

Posted by: malenkov | May 22 2026 17:16 utc | 72

Tulsi has resigned at DNI Chief – one of the few forces of reason in the DJT War Cabinet…………..supposedly to take care of her very ill husband…….she fought hard against the Israeli war mongers, and the Israel War Cabinet of hardened war criminals like Bibi, Gvir, Katz and Smotrich.
 
She will be missed……….this leaves JD and General Caine as only voices of reason left on board…….

Posted by: tobias cole | May 22 2026 17:58 utc | 74

In a political sense it makes much sense for DJT to take on Cuba and change its leadership (that will be very, very popular in South Florida), and not continue with military action against Iran.
 
There are many benefits to a Cuba incursion, none for Iran.  Let the Israelis decide their own fate, without US intervention……….

Posted by: tobias cole | May 22 2026 18:04 utc | 76

@ Chris N | May 22 2026 18:09 utc | 78
 
Took the words right out of my mouth. Tulsi was an ambitious but hapless nobody.

Posted by: malenkov | May 22 2026 18:14 utc | 78

@ Chris N | May 22 2026 18:09 utc | 78
 
Oh and I suspect she “left” the sinking ship only because she was about to be tossed overboard anyway.

Posted by: malenkov | May 22 2026 18:15 utc | 80

Alistair Crooke with Col. Daniel Davis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyVazLRejw8

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | May 22 2026 18:19 utc | 82

petergrfstrm @ 67
 
Aspen Colorado and the Aspen Institute are wholly owned by the Crown family of Chicago. Henry Crown was Al Capone’s boss. Nothing has changed. They also own General Dynamics so of course they want war. And Jewish so we know who they want to go to war for.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 22 2026 19:36 utc | 84

Israel and dual or half loyal rich and connected American supporters of it have always had agency and sought to keep the Zio colony afloat and dominant in the region.  Anyone expecting new Nuremberg trials probably doesn’t have a very good understanding of the originals.
 
In any case, here’s a likely example of the power American Zionists have wielded.
 
https://monikawiesak.substack.com/p/jfk-myth-vs-reality

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | May 22 2026 20:13 utc | 86

The Cradle, Ep 221: ‘Clock is Ticking: Deal or New War?’
 
https://www.cradle.com/@thecradlemedia/streams
 
“Is this the last chance for West Asia to avoid total war?”

Posted by: John Gilberts | May 22 2026 20:31 utc | 88

DROP SITE
 
BREAKING | Iran: no deal is close, nuclear issues off the table for now
 
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday that Pakistan’s army chief’s visit represents a continuation of diplomacy, and not a breakthrough.
 
He also confirmed a Qatari delegation met with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi today.
 
On the state of talks: “We cannot say we have reached a point where a deal is close. No, it is not like that. The focus of these negotiations is on ending the war. At this stage, nuclear-related topics are not on the agenda.”
 
On Qatar and diplomacy: “Some countries are trying to offer their good offices to help end the war and prevent escalation, which we value, but our official mediator is Pakistan.”
 
On nuclear rights: “We are members of the NPT and have the right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. We have stated our positions on highly enriched uranium very clearly.”
 
On why nuclear talks are deferred: “If we try to discuss these topics at this stage we will not reach a result. We went down this road before, the differences were so great we could not reach an agreement, and the other side destroyed the negotiating table with its unreasonable demands and committed a crime by attacking Iran.”
 
Source: ISNA
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2057895429719965758
 

Posted by: Menz | May 22 2026 22:31 utc | 90

Ornot 76
 
We know now that Trump was very well informed about  covid, and how it was smuggled from Wuhan and then spread by US soldiers participating in Sport competitions.
 
Then  Trump accused China of creating it.
No wonder President Xi’s body language was a bit hostile.
Trump , as an insider to Jewish Banking was completely unperturbed by the need to re-Finance the Global economy, as in fact he is now. 
 
Today , Trump is playing dumb, and greedy, while trying to elicit a casus belli to fight with China for supporting Iran.
No wonder President Xi felt it was important to shake the serpent’s hand.
 
You and I might be uninformed simpletons, but the US elites are well informed and well trained in the risks and benefits of playing international poker, Live,  on the world stage. 

Posted by: Giyane | May 22 2026 22:34 utc | 92

@90 Trubind

“No good US options”

Although most would not consider it a good option, the US could destroy a main part of Iran’s economy (power plants, refineries etc.) . If Iran has not ability to target US ships, or air defense is not effective, then it is missile war until those run out, then getting bombed indefinitely until submission, or until chaos takes over. Could be quite one sided or a lot of destruction on all sides.

I will just leave it as ‘We should not underestimate the abilities of an opponent’

These kinds of projects are decades in the making, the strategies used are in years at least, we are thinking in weeks or days often though.

Also, while US holds ability to sanction companies ‘acquiessing’ to Iran, a large portion of maritime traffic will not transit.

I remember I was corrected on Arabian Gulf here once, and Persian Gulf does fit better except it now reminds me of previous conflicts as reported in western media …funny , we would just call it the sea or whatever town, port or beach etc. :-/

So it would come down to who was more resilient or able in practice, and I won’t speculate on that. However I don’t think the US has any mind to back off until it has achieved what it has set out to do, which equally might be quite different from what is thought or announced. The question to me is more about how China and Russia, and some surrounding countries, react if that goes ahead with further conflict.

I think we will know quite soon what is decided.

Posted by: Ornot | May 22 2026 22:47 utc | 94

We know now that Trump was very well informed about  covid, and how it was smuggled from Wuhan and then spread by US soldiers participating in Sport competitions.
 
Posted by: Giyane | May 22 2026 22:34 utc | 93

 
I believe you mean “smuggled into Wuhan”?

Posted by: malenkov | May 22 2026 23:01 utc | 96

@93 Giyane

I don’t like giving more credit than is due, but it would be very wrong to assume these people are incapable. Even if it were only for having vast bureaucracy and resources at their disposition.

Similarly, I won’t guess what Trump or others knew about anything, I prefer to just go by what I see of a person,in human terms, what is plainly known. Sort of brings anyone down to ground level and avoids them becoming an ‘object of fascination’. Where any make public decisions, they are accountable for those, for whatever implications they carry.

Trump didn’t think up sarscov2, he doesn’t run the banking either, he is who he is playing the part that he does.

In other words, most people find just organising own day to day difficult, do we think one person is capable of organising and running an entire country ?

Obviously it does not work like that.

Posted by: Ornot | May 22 2026 23:08 utc | 98

More Ripples – Tyson and Hudson – One hour
 
Post‑Dollar World Economy

Posted by: Don Firineach | May 22 2026 23:39 utc | 100