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War On Iran: – No Way Out For Trump On Iran
On Sunday the Foreign Minister of Iran visited Pakistan to deliver a new proposal to end the USraeli war against Iran. The Pakistanis, with Saudi and Chinese backing, are mediating talks between the U.S. and Iran.
The Iranian proposal foresees three steps:
- A peace agreement with some guarantee that the U.S. and Israel will refrain from any further attack on Iran. Following that:
- An agreement to lift the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade of Iranian sea transport. Iran will insist of staying in control of the Strait and on collecting contributions for its reconstruction from each ship that passes through. Following that:
- Talks about the nuclear issues.
The Trump administration does not like (archived) the proposal but does not know what else it can do:
President Trump has told advisers he is not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, according to multiple people briefed on discussions in the White House Situation Room on Monday.
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Iran’s proposal to open the strait has been subject to a vigorous debate inside the administration over whether the United States or Iran has more leverage, and which country is better positioned to endure the economic hardship the closure of the waterway has created.
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Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for two more months would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran’s energy industry. Oil wells cannot be turned on and off, and they would be damaged if they are forced to shut down, incurring costly repairs. Iran, these officials argue, will make a deal to avoid such long-term problems.
But others in the administration have said the assessment is flawed, noting that Iran’s positions have hardened, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has only solidified its hold on power.
The U.S. government has assessed that Iranian negotiators have not been authorized — either by the supreme leader or by senior Revolutionary Guards officials — to make concessions on the nuclear program. Without a resumption of military action, there is little reason to think the Iranian position will shift.
Even if bombing resumed, there is little evidence that would alter Iran’s decision-making process.
The U.S. has lost its war on Iran. Not even one of its strategic goals has been achieved. All its military/tactical actions, intended to disarm Iran, have failed to reach their aims.
By taking control of the Strait of Hormuz Iran delivered the checkmate.
The only valid path for the U.S. is to retreat. Making peace and reopening the Strait would at least limit the enormous damage the war has already done to the global economy. It would also limit the damage the war has caused to long term U.S. relations with allies like the Gulf States, Thailand or Germany.
But the Israel lobby, with its strong influence over the White House, will not allow that to happen. It will push for another round of bombing even as Iranian retaliation is likely to cause severe damage to Israel and the Gulf states. In the lobby’s view Israel must achieve hegemony in the Middle East or will be destined to vanish.
Instead of finding solutions for his dilemma Trump is trying to escape from reality:
Iran has just informed us that they are in a “State of Collapse.” They want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait,” as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
(Donald J. Trump – TS: Apr 28 2026, 9:29 AM ET )
I wonder what Trump is expecting to achieve with writing such factless gibberish.
Currently the British king is on a state visit in Washington DC. It would be a diplomatic affront for the U.S. to bomb Iran while he is in town. On Friday, after the king has left and the stock markets closed, Trump will probably give a go for another round of bombing which will again achieve little.
A week from now Trump’s problem will only be bigger.
@272 Trubind
A lot of mixed messaging going on or blather as you put it. It is hard to find anything meaningful amongst all of that.
The quote on buying time was Hegseth I think, a couple of days ago, as for now this is all I have to go on. Ignore that it is CNN, the point is that they are quoting Pakistani relay of info.
Journalist Suhaib Al-Masalma
“CNN:
The delay in the amended Iranian proposal is linked to the difficulty of reaching Mojtaba Khamenei
Pakistan expects a revised proposal from Iran today or Friday at the latest
The Pakistani Prime Minister said that Araqchi reassured him by submitting new proposals”
https://t.me/Sohaibpress/140582
Now there is the following from Sohaib, but unsourced.
“Trump rejects the Iranian proposal for a deal.
Netanyahu will speak with Trump within the next hour.
We expect military strikes to occur in the coming days.”
They are pulling together the position on the fly because that is all the info that is being released; so and so is here, they say this, the president tweets that as a reply.
The negotiations are hardly at formal level and in public.
It does all fit though, if followed closely.
Posted by: Ornot | Apr 29 2026 17:27 utc | 338
In response to unsightfulviews@378,
There are surface level similarities, if one doesn’t look too closely. But the idea that Ukraine imposed an attrition war on Russia, and is blocking grain exports out of the Black sea, and that attacks on oil, gas and civilian / dual use infrastructure are part of that calculus — not sure if any of that makes sense.
First off, Ukraine can’t win by imposing prohibitive costs on Russia, since their declared objectives are liberating territories that they consider occupied since 2014 — they’ve made no progress in this regard at any point. The immediate tactical Russian objective is to liberate the remaining percentage of the four oblasts that have previously held a referendum to join the Russian federation, which at every point during the conflict has been “mostly achieved” to the point of factual, but premature declarations and celebrations. Let’s say Ukraine can stop Russia dead in their tracks, preventing them from liberating more of those oblasts, they still only stop them on territory Ukraine insists on returning — Russian troops hunker down where they are and wait for the next opportunity to advance, which inevitably must arise.
On that note, Ukraine well remembers their own strategy of gulping down the buffer area between themselves and DNR & LNR during the cease-fire period, which is likely why any end to hostilities, even a temporary one, is viewed as an opportunity by the Russians to do the same and is therefore rejected — the only way Ukraine is willing to consider peace, is if additional guarantors step in to physically hold the line, at least as a tripwire force, to prevent such a development. The prospects for that are not realistic, and so in Ukraine’s logic they need to continue fighting to whatever bitter end. Russia is not in that position — they can pause and resume, with the same logic, to continue this conflict in a lukewarm capacity, for the next 100 years if necessary.
Here, the dynamic of Iran v.s Israel & US, and Ukraine & US / EU v.s Russia is the polar opposite of your comparison. Iran is not under pressure to “finish the fight once and for all” or “continue fighting in perpetuity” but Israel, and by extension, US is. The latter can’t disengage and call it a draw, because the conflict has only strengthened Iran, making it better prepared for the next leg of fighting. Same with Russia v.s Ukraine & US / EU — Russia’s military potential has only increased since the start of the SMO, while the West is scrambling to reassemble their military industry and recover their depleted stockpiles by 2030-2035. Ukraine literally can’t stop fighting without someone from its supposed tag-team inserting themselves on the line of contact, which isn’t a precondition that Russia will agree with.
And then, whose grain is Ukraine blocking in the Black sea? Their own, right? Being a country whose economy used to be highly dependent on grain exports, but unable to sell it all to Europe due to the regulated EU markets and price instability that would ensue, every summer we hear about Ukrainian grain rotting in the fields, or making a Polish farmer irate. Every year a new grain-deal with Russia is attempted, but since it is conditioned on lifting European sanctions against Russian grain, falls through, and Russia resumes its fire control over Odessa. Again, it seems your comparison represents some kind of mirror universe of what’s going on.
Posted by: Skiffer | Apr 30 2026 7:51 utc | 385
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