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War On Iran: – No Way Out For Trump On Iran
On Sunday the Foreign Minister of Iran visited Pakistan to deliver a new proposal to end the USraeli war against Iran. The Pakistanis, with Saudi and Chinese backing, are mediating talks between the U.S. and Iran.
The Iranian proposal foresees three steps:
- A peace agreement with some guarantee that the U.S. and Israel will refrain from any further attack on Iran. Following that:
- An agreement to lift the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. blockade of Iranian sea transport. Iran will insist of staying in control of the Strait and on collecting contributions for its reconstruction from each ship that passes through. Following that:
- Talks about the nuclear issues.
The Trump administration does not like (archived) the proposal but does not know what else it can do:
President Trump has told advisers he is not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, according to multiple people briefed on discussions in the White House Situation Room on Monday.
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Iran’s proposal to open the strait has been subject to a vigorous debate inside the administration over whether the United States or Iran has more leverage, and which country is better positioned to endure the economic hardship the closure of the waterway has created.
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Some administration officials believe that continuing the blockade for two more months would cause significant long-term damage to Tehran’s energy industry. Oil wells cannot be turned on and off, and they would be damaged if they are forced to shut down, incurring costly repairs. Iran, these officials argue, will make a deal to avoid such long-term problems.
But others in the administration have said the assessment is flawed, noting that Iran’s positions have hardened, and that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has only solidified its hold on power.
The U.S. government has assessed that Iranian negotiators have not been authorized — either by the supreme leader or by senior Revolutionary Guards officials — to make concessions on the nuclear program. Without a resumption of military action, there is little reason to think the Iranian position will shift.
Even if bombing resumed, there is little evidence that would alter Iran’s decision-making process.
The U.S. has lost its war on Iran. Not even one of its strategic goals has been achieved. All its military/tactical actions, intended to disarm Iran, have failed to reach their aims.
By taking control of the Strait of Hormuz Iran delivered the checkmate.
The only valid path for the U.S. is to retreat. Making peace and reopening the Strait would at least limit the enormous damage the war has already done to the global economy. It would also limit the damage the war has caused to long term U.S. relations with allies like the Gulf States, Thailand or Germany.
But the Israel lobby, with its strong influence over the White House, will not allow that to happen. It will push for another round of bombing even as Iranian retaliation is likely to cause severe damage to Israel and the Gulf states. In the lobby’s view Israel must achieve hegemony in the Middle East or will be destined to vanish.
Instead of finding solutions for his dilemma Trump is trying to escape from reality:
Iran has just informed us that they are in a “State of Collapse.” They want us to “Open the Hormuz Strait,” as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
(Donald J. Trump – TS: Apr 28 2026, 9:29 AM ET )
I wonder what Trump is expecting to achieve with writing such factless gibberish.
Currently the British king is on a state visit in Washington DC. It would be a diplomatic affront for the U.S. to bomb Iran while he is in town. On Friday, after the king has left and the stock markets closed, Trump will probably give a go for another round of bombing which will again achieve little.
A week from now Trump’s problem will only be bigger.
On the issue of Israeli lobbying in America:
Track AIPAC is the most commonly used source for exposing Israeli influence in American politics. Track AIPAC itself relies on governmental data (FEC.gov) and OpenSecrets as its sources.
Let’s take a look at Track AIPAC’s dossier on the Trump administration, specifically Trump himself. The massive figure—$230,473,622—is eyebrow-raising, until you look at the breakdown. Most of the money is going to ads attacking Trump’s political opponents, not into Trump’s own pockets (you can make a case for money laundering, but you can do that for all lobbying money, including those from China and Russia). Preserve America (Miriam Adelson) gave about $112M for anti-Harris ads and $103M for anti-Biden ads. RJC Victory Fund gave $10M for anti-Harris ads and $3M for anti-Biden ads. That’s $228M out of the total $230M Trump received.
If you believe that mass propaganda/communication like advertisements have a powerful influence on American policies, then you must also accept that the lobbying from China and Russia that mostly goes into their respective media outlets (CGTN, Xinhua, ANO TV-Novosti, Kart LLC) and are far more consistent than one-off presidential campaign ads would also have powerful influences. In the period spanning 2016-2025, Israel doesn’t make it to the list of top 10 countries and foreign principals, but China and ANO TV-Novosti does. Therefore, every American should be out in the streets protesting against the American sanctions imposed upon Russia and China, the seizure of Russian and Chinese assets, the continued delivery of American weapons to Ukraine that’s used to kill Russians, the trade war against China, the persecution campaigns that have led to multiple “suicides” of Chinese scientists in America (Danhao Wang, March 19, 2026 and Jane Ying Wu, July 10, 2024), the arrest of Meng Wanzhou for allegedly doing business with Iran etc. But broad, fervent pro-China and pro-Russian sentiments evidently aren’t manifesting despite all that lobbying money.
Some will argue that pro-Israel propaganda is more easily accepted by Americans at all levels of society, from the government to the common man, because Israel’s interests do not clash with America’s, unlike China’s and Russia’s, hence Israel being able to achieve far more with less spending than China and Russia. This argument is actually an argument for Israel not controlling the American government and people. If your heart is set on doing something already, and a group of people are throwing money at you to do that something, then that money is more of a bonus than an incentive.
Let’s dive into some data that backs up my assertions. For consistency, data sources are always OpenSecrets and Pew Research Center.
Pro-Israel lobbying spent $42.13M/$19.29M on Democrats and $28.71M/$10.93M on Republicans in 2024/2020. The disparity in spending doesn’t translate to disparity in results. Republicans won in 2024. Democrats won in 2020.
Israel spent a combined governmental and non-governmental total of $15,857,282 in 2025 and $6,644,142 in 2024. In 2026, Americans with a very/somewhat unfavorable opinion of Israel is at 60% (Rep/Lean Rep 41% and Dem/Lean Dem at 80%), a significant rise from 42% in 2022. For comparison, China spent a combined total of $82,559,058 in 2025 and $54,113,388 in 2024. Americans holding an unfavorable view of China went from 82% in 2022 to 71% in 2026.
China spends 5 to 9 times more money than Israel, yet there are still more Americans who dislike China than Israel. An increase in lobbying money in the previous year (2025 vs. 2024) did not necessarily result in less unfavorable sentiments in the subsequent year (2026). The narrative of “they support [Country Name] because of lobby money” falls apart upon close scrutiny.
Incidentally, there’s comparatively minimal pro-Taiwan lobbying (it consistently hovers around $4M between 2016 and 2025), yet China and Taiwan tensions are seen by Americans (Democrats at 76% and Republicans at 78%) as important to U.S. national interests in 2024.
The importance of Israel-Hamas war to U.S. national interests according to survey respondents is at 76% for Dem and 77% for Rep in 2024, and 77% and 75% in 2025. The change in importance is minimal despite the significant rise in unfavorable opinion towards Israel compared to 2022 (42% vs. 53%).
A vast majority of Americans see the affairs of foreign countries as vital to their national interests, regardless of whether it’s Israel, Taiwan or Ukraine.
There’s no need for lobby money to influence politicians or the average Joe American to support Israel, regardless of whether that support comes with stern disapproval or is unabashedly enthusiastic. Americans are conscious of the fact that they are imperial citizens. They know which conflicts need to be fought to preserve American hegemony.
Spending amounts not correlating with actual outcomes (election victory, friendlier diplomatic relations etc) is not proof of Israelis having abilities transcending material reality that allows them to brainwash Americans and their political leaders into supporting Israel. Instead, it’s proof that lobbying only serves as bonuses, instead of incentives, for prioritizing the implementation of one set of imperial policies over another set. Americans were always going to send bombs to Israel/Ukraine/Taiwanese separatists to kill Iranians/Russians/Chinese mainlanders. The fierce infighting between Americans is to decide which American proxy gets them first.
Death to America
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Marg bar Âmrikâ
Note: Full set of links at Substack.
Posted by: All Under Heaven | Apr 29 2026 11:32 utc | 243
@161 Delhi
Sharjah is not the peninsula, and it is unlikely to seek independence. Equally the story is to pressure UAE, i.e. backfoot Sharjah…it is possible even that those UAE trusted/work with (US and “Israel”) would also be looking to destroy or take it over (further) by sowing confusion and argument. The following are on how state finance works in UAE:
“I think the UAEs financial situation is so dire that it has forced the richer Emirates to cut subsidies to the poorer ones, with predictable reactions.”
Although oil provides better colateral for financing than say tourism, I think all are in dificulty, but Abu Dhabi
[The UAE is a federation of seven emirates, each with autonomy over natural resource management, fiscal operations, and debt issuance. The federal government accounts for only around 15 percent of total public spending, making the UAE one of the most fiscally decentralized federations globally. Each emirate has autonomy over revenues generated within the emirate, including from oil. In addition to its fiscal operations autonomy, each emirate has discretion over revenue transfers between the emirates]
https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/2025/328/article-A002-en.xml
[In the UAE, these practices are attenuated by the federal system, which has encouraged a great deal of autonomy in the seven emirates. This autonomy has allowed separate security functions to co-exist, as well as separate revenue streams that need not contribute to the federal budget. In the UAE constitution, revenue of each emirate, especially from the discovery and export of oil, is independently held and not a federal asset. In addition, the practice of providing support to the federal budget from the revenue accrued directly by the emirate of Abu Dhabi from its oil exports is an informal one, and not constitutionally mandated. Though the tradition of Abu Dhabi support to the entire federation has been enshrined by the generous statesmanship of the founding father, Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan, the institutionalization through legal commitments of that support is less concrete.]
https://agsi.org/analysis/uae-fiscal-policy-shining-light-on-federal-resource-sharing/
And given both oil and tourism are effected. I suppose oil has more colateral value, even if restricted at present, which equally could work against UAE if conflict and restrictions are extended…
Posted by: Ornot | Apr 29 2026 13:10 utc | 270
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