The Trump administration’s self-congratulations for the ceasefire with Iran immediately fell apart after Israel bombed Lebanon and killed more than 250 people.
This was a breach of the ceasefire agreement which Pakistan had arranged and announced and which had included Lebanon and other areas of the conflict.
The Trump administration had been begging for a ceasefire for several days. It had been involved (archived) in formulating the message the Pakistani Prime Minister had issued. Trump himself had endorsed the 10-point condition sheet the Iranians had proposed by calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate”.
With knowledge of the imminent ceasefire members of the Trump administration had (again) waged bets on commodities and won large amounts of money.
But just a few hours after the Israeli attack the Trump administration repudiated two central points of the ceasefire. Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire, it suddenly claimed, and Iran’s 10 point sheet had been “thrown into the trash” even before Trump had endorsed it.
Iran reacted by immediately closing the Strait of Hormuz (archived) for good. Only four ships, all coming from Iranian ports, have passed during the last 24 hours.
The statement by Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is plain:
The repeated aggression by the Zionist entity against Lebanon is a flagrant violation of the initial ceasefire agreement and a dangerous indicator of deceit and lack of commitment to potential accords. The continuation of these aggressions will render negotiations meaningless; our hands will remain on the trigger, and Iran will never abandon its Lebanese brothers and sisters.
While there is currently no bombing of Iran ongoing, and no new launching of Iranian drones and missiles on USraeli targets, the quietness is unlikely to hold.
Further talks, supposed on happen on Saturday in Pakistan, are in doubt.
I expect the war to reignite before they take place.