U.S. President Donald Trump has again chickened out of his threats to Iran:
Trump said the ceasefire had been due to end on Wednesday, but he decided to keep it in place because the government in Tehran is “seriously fractured.”
He said the pause will continue “until such time as” Iran’s leaders and representatives submit a “unified proposal” to end the war with the United States and Israel. Trump also said he made the move after a request from Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan. He said he directed the U.S. military to keep the blockade in place until a proposal is delivered.
The U.S. has, as Trump had previously acknowledged, already received Iran’s 10-point proposal.
What Trump is acknowledging without saying it is that it is unlikely that there will be any negotiated settlement of the war. The U.S. is structurally incapable of lifting sanctions on Iran or signing a peace treaty. Iran is unwilling to give up its (enrichment) rights for bare promises Trump or his successors are unlikely to hold.
The conflict will thus continue.
Iran’s military capabilities are sufficient to wage a long war. The intense U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign was unable to disarm the country:
About half of Iran’s stockpile of ballistic missiles and its associated launch systems were still intact as of the start of the ceasefire in early April, three of the officials told CBS News.
Roughly 60% of the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still in existence, the officials said, including fast-attack speed boats.
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About two-thirds of Iran’s air force is still believed to be operational, the officials said, after an intensive U.S. and Israeli campaign that struck thousands of targets, including storage and production facilities.
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The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency submitted a written statement ahead of a House Armed Services Committee hearing that said Iran can still inflict damage.“Iran retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs that can threaten U.S. and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure,” Marine Lt. Gen. James Adams wrote.
Previously, the president and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have described the U.S. effort, called Operation Epic Fury, as essentially destroying Iran’s military capacity.
That is a meager outcome if one believes reports that the Pentagon has used up nearly 50% of its relevant munition:
Over the last seven weeks of war, the US military has expended at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; at least half of its inventory of THAAD missiles, which are designed to intercept ballistic missiles; and nearly 50% of its stockpile of Patriot air defense interceptor missiles, according to a new analysis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Those numbers closely align with classified Pentagon data about US stockpiles, according to the sources familiar with the assessment.
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The US military has also expended approximately 30% of its Tomahawk missile stockpile; more than 20% of its stockpile of long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles; and approximately 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles, according to the analysis and the sources. It would take around four to five years to replace those systems.
By now Trump’s bluffs have been called not only once or twice but five times:
On five separate occasions, the president has set deadlines for Iran to come to his terms or face his wrath.
And each time, he’s delayed that deadline despite little or no public evidence that Iran met the terms as he laid them out.
The U.S. has run out of option but is unwilling to concede its defeat.
Each day the damage due to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is increasing (archived):
The International Monetary Fund warned last week that under a severe scenario—where the conflict continues for months and keeps oil prices elevated—world economic growth could fall to 2% in 2026, a rate seen only during the deepest recent global recessions. That compares with the IMF’s main, or “reference,” scenario, in which there is a quick resolution and global output grows by 3.1% this year.
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The conflict has already proven more disruptive to global energy markets than the 1973 oil crisis. The fallout extends far beyond crude.Supply chains are also gummed up for helium, crucial for the artificial-intelligence chips boom, and fertilizers, essential for global food security. Aluminum prices are near a four-year high that was reached earlier this month amid war-related smelter closures across the Gulf, which accounts for around 10% of global supply.
Current U.S. propaganda is claiming that the leadership in Iran is not united:
Trump’s negotiators believe a deal to end the war and address what’s left of Iran’s nuclear program is still achievable. But they also worry they may not have anyone in Tehran empowered to say yes.
- Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is barely communicating. The IRGC generals now in control of the country and Iran’s civilian negotiators are openly at odds over strategy.
- “We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive,” a U.S. official said.
That is a serious misreading of the political process in Iran. The national security council under the Supreme Leader has always been the main forum of major foreign policy decisions. On national security issues President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi are diplomats, not policy makers. The distinction between “hardliners” and “moderates” in Iran is thus not valid.
Main stream opinion writers who, with Trump’s applause, are calling for murdering the allegedly resistive party in Iran are only exposing their ignorance.
With his latest TACO Trump has pushed the problem out into the future. I expect him to try to ignore the situation he has created until more significant damage in the U.S. economy becomes visible.
Meanwhile Iran can, should and likely will increase the pressure. The most obvious move is to ask Ansarollah (the Houthi) in Yemen to close the southern Bab al-Mandeb outlet of the Red Sea.
This would block another 5% of the global oil output and thus increase the economic pressure.