Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Apr 16 2026 16:11 utc | 2
 
NATO in total disarray, US revealing itself as a Paper Gangster, Europe starting to feel really lonely. Definitely the time to up the heat on the Western Europeans. I was unable to view the list from the MOD in my browser, wondering if others in US are having that issue

Posted by: Caveman | Apr 16 2026 16:29 utc | 4

decisively.  
Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Apr 16 2026 16:11 utc | 2
 
I get it, you are one of those people that says every burrito you eat is “amazing”, every thing that happens is “hilarious”, every song you ever heard is “your favorite”, and every celebrity you ever saw is “one of your best friends”.
 
Dude, I just had a burrito, and it was Amazing.

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 16 2026 16:38 utc | 6

Following the EU MSM regularly, there seems to be huge panic about US involvement in Nato. The EU leaders are still in denial about this.
 
If/when they somehow get it that US won’t/wouldn’t do much for them the illusion finally crumbles.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2026 18:57 utc | 8

Posted by: Nobody Special | Apr 16 2026 16:10 utc | 150
 
Yours is a useful reminder that there’s more to this war than kilometres gained or lost.  Martyanov sets out the same message:-
 
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2026/04/this-is-for.html#disqus_thread
 
There’s also the fact, often ignored, that opinion in the rest of the world must be taken into account.  It was only after a year to two that the Brics and prospective Brics countries swung in behind Russia to the extent they by now most of them have.
 
But perhaps the main addition to your list is something that was apparent in early 2022.  This is not a war that in any circumstances the Russians can afford to lose.  And as was also apparent then, since their economy is in better shape than our Western economies, and since they have military superiority, they don’t have to.
 
Even so, how do you win a war then there are nukes around and the Western politicians irresponsible?  Slow and easy, one supposes, and we’re lucky  the Russians think so too.

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 16 2026 19:54 utc | 10

@ English Outsider | Apr 16 2026 19:54 utc | 10
 
Indeed @ Nobody Special’s post in the now defunct thread makes some important points, so, hopefully with @ b’s tolerance, I’m bringing it forward to here, with my own annotations:

“Amateurs talk tactics.  Professionals study logistics.”
 If you anticipate a long war – a war lasting ten, twenty or thirty years – tactics don’t matter.  Operations fade into the background.  Logistics wins the war.  Not just battlefield logistics, but national logistics – the cumulative logistics which is created at the family level nurtured by wise national leadership 
 The problem I have with so many commenters here is they lack the background, academically, personally, and professionally to understand what I just wrote.  What is tactics?  What is operations?  How.do they interact?  How do they overlap?  Who runs tactics?  Who runs operations?  How does logistics work?  Why did Marlborough or Grant or von Kuchler choose one road over another?  How do you sustain your military over years or decades of active combat operations?  How do you pay for it?  How do you feed, clothe, and house your civilian population while keeping their morale high?  How do you measure your progress towards achieving your national goals?  How does Barry Watt’s critique of the U.S. Air Force’s mechanistic approach to warfare inform your understanding of these questions?  What is an OODA loop and how did hydraulic flight controls affect John Boyd’s development of the concept?  
 If you can’t answer any of these very simple and basic questions, then how can you tell if differential casualty rates or territory gained are even relevant to Russian national goals?  Maybe dance parties are a better measure of Russian achievements.  If you have no idea how dance parties relate to Russia achieving its war goals, then I don’t even know what to say.

Agree with all this; while not from a military background, some of us here have long experience of the logistics, the planning needed to deliver complex projects to a functional completion. Not talking about software here either, stuff involving big, heavy kit, that is sometimes intended to get very hot and stay very hot; sometimes involving moving thousands of tonnes of earth as part of achieving the desired project outcome. 

I will say this, listening to the endless debate on here about casualty figures and square kilometers gained is like listening to a bunch of thirteen year old virgins debating the best way to seduce a woman.  It’s funny, and sometimes sad.

Agree again, I try to avoid engaging too deeply in such debates, except to point out that Russian missile and drone capabilities, the “long-range fires”, mean that Russia has control of the entire Ukrainian territory.

That’s why I rarely post about casualty numbers or territorial movement.  When I do, it’s mostly because I’ve gotten my fill of the rank ignorance.  What I really want to know is the state of the Russian effort to create a viable domestic airline and computer industry.  That would useful information.  What is the state of family savings?  How much personal debt do Russians average?  Can Russian families easily afford an occasional vacation?  Have any of these metrics – family savings, family vacations, and personal debt – changed over the last five years?  That would be useful information.  Has Russia seen an influx of low IQ, violent, third world males?  What is the crime rate on Russian subways?  If I had all that information, I might be able to give you an informed analysis of who was likely to win a war – Europe or Russia.

Bringing forward my earlier partial reply:

I regularly dip into this site: https://sdelanounas.ru/ which covers many technical developments in Russian engineering, manufacturing, transport, civil infrastructure and many other topics.
 As an example, the development of the civil passenger airliner industry is frequently covered.
 I use a browser translation add-on, as I have no fluency in the Russian language. Well worth a visit to get something of a snapshot of what is happening away from exclusively military affairs.

~~~

Casualty numbers?  Territory gained?  I don’t care.  They tell me almost nothing.
Posted by: Nobody Special | Apr 16 2026 16:10 utc | 150

Ultimately, the analysis about who is going to win comes down to:

• who has the most abundant physical resources
• who has the energy to refine those resources
• who has the technical means to turn those refined resources into effectively-functioning products

Grotesquely unpayable levels of debt do not make for a winning outcome.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 16 2026 20:48 utc | 12

Why is Russia justified in preventing Ukraine from obtaining nuclear weapons, but Israel is not justified in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons? Can anyone articulate the difference?

Posted by: George II | Apr 16 2026 21:34 utc | 14

Why is russia justified in preventing ukraine from obtaining nuclear weapons ? Answer , because ukraine does not intend to obtain nuclear weapons instead their intension is to allow the usa to site usa nuclear weapons on ukraines border with russia and point them towards moscow just 400 miles away.
what is different about israel wanting to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons , well first of all iran dont want to obtain nuclear weapons they have said this consistantly repeatedly for forty years and secondly iran does not attack its neighbours , on the orher hand israel already has nuclear weapons and israel does attack its neighbours.

Posted by: Terence Callachan | Apr 16 2026 21:57 utc | 16

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 16 2026 20:48 utc | 12 Posted by: Nobody Special | Apr 16 2026 16:10 utc | 150  “Casualty numbers?  Territory gained?  I don’t care.  They tell me almost nothing.”
Those may tell you nothing but they tell others plenty.  Like, this war can continue for quite some time.
And
“except to point out that Russian missile and drone capabilities, the “long-range fires”, mean that Russia has control of the entire Ukrainian territory.”
Hmm, I guess then Israel and the US has control of the entire Ukrainian Iranian territory.

Posted by: ed4 | Apr 16 2026 22:53 utc | 18

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 16 2026 20:48 utc | 12
 
Thank you for resurrecting Nobody Special’s posting, I didn’t note that in time. Thank you to Nobody Special too. Sanity comes in short, rare bursts on this forum (not really but so much noise…), so it’s great to see it spread 🙂

Posted by: Konami | Apr 16 2026 23:15 utc | 20

The significance of parties to measuring Russia’s achievement of its stated war goals
 
Russia wants to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.  Part of that is physical.  Russia needs to take Ukraine’s tools away from them.  That’s the easy part.  Russia also needs to turn Ukrainian culture and society away from war and anti-Russian fascism.  That is a very difficult job.  There is a time tested way to achieve those cultural changes.  You need to make the enemy despair.  They need to lose hope.  You need to make them feel trapped by life itself.  Some people will understand this immediately because they have struggled with depression.  How do you throw an entire culture into a mass depression where getting out of bed takes immense effort?  Where every step is weighted with hopelessness?  Even if you think you can do that to an entire culture, how would you measure the effectiveness of your efforts?
 
Back in 2024, I saw several videos of outdoor parties in various Ukrainian cities including Kiev, Lvov, and Odessa.  The dance floors were rocking to live music as happy, healthy, well dressed partiers danced without a care in the world.  When I saw those, I thought, “Russia isn’t even close to winning.”
 
I’ll know Russia is winning if I see videos of dance parties in Ukraine held in dark clubs with slow, pounding bass driven music.  The partiers will look unhealthy, with ragged hair, and dressed in black clothes. They will be joyless as they sway with minimum motion on the dance floor.  The drugs of choice will no longer be vodka, mixed drinks, x, mdma, and cocaine, but will become meth, LSD, and heroin.  If I see those videos from every city in Ukraine, I will know the Russians are getting closer to achieving their goals.
 
Once a population is hopeless, an invader can come in and feed them, restore their fresh water supply, rebuild their homes, the streets and stores. The invader will give the people a hold and a future, and the people will love the invader and rip apart anyone who threatened the new, wonderful life.
 
That’s what the U.S. did to Germany after World War II.  It’s why people loved the U.S.  It treated the conquered countries with mercy and gentleness.  What the fuck happened to the U.S.?  When did it forget about treating its enemies with respect?  Watching Russia, I see them imitating the old American way of war.  They are grinding down the Ukrainians, but everywhere they establish control, they rebuild civil society.  They give the locals hope.  But before they do that, they need to turn Ukraine into a pit of despair.  Watching the party scene is one way to measure how that project is going.

Posted by: Nobody Special | Apr 16 2026 23:51 utc | 22

Back in 2024, I saw several videos of outdoor parties in various Ukrainian cities including Kiev, Lvov, and Odessa. The dance floors were rocking to live music as happy, healthy, well dressed partiers danced without a care in the world. When I saw those, I thought, “Russia isn’t even close to winning.”

Posted by: Nobody Special | Apr 16 2026 23:51 utc | 22
 
 
And I thought, “Ukraine is nowhere near the panic it should be in”.  Ukraine still hasn’t panicked.   
 
They should have imposed hard core martial law on Feb 2022, and started drafting all eligible men (18+) and putting all working men into reserve for training. 
 
That was the last moment Ukraine had a chance to win.   They have no chance now.

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 0:27 utc | 24

The commentator Nobody Special seemed to write a lot of pompous gibberish in the previous thread.
1. You put casualty differentials and square kilometers gained in the same camp of irrelevant parameters that “misinformed “people are obsessed with. But I never talked anything about territory. I am fine with the rate of progress that the Russian army is moving forward. Casualties,  casualty differentials are THE important thing.
It was one of the most absurd and successful western psyops in history to convince idiots that Russia’s opening blitz in the SMO wasn’t a spectacularly successful manoeuvre and accumulation of territory. Instead we were fed a load of crap of “he wants all of Ukraine” , “he wants Kiev in 3 days “. I haven’t been interested in the rate of territory because there is no point liberating land to look good on the square kilometres chart, only for the city to be within shelling distance of the enemy and on the wrong side of a river, as Kherson was.
Hence why the manpower the ukronazis have left is THE important issue. And its silly to mention WW2 or the Vietnam war. The Soviet union had already started battering the Nazi’s across Europe by the time they had a numerical advantage on the battlefield by 1945. For the entire war on the eastern front it was 29 million Nazis and allies against 31 million soviets , of which 4 million were taken POW and died from being in there in the opening months of the GPW. Ukraines ultrahigh death rate and ultralow birthrate become a very important topic in a long war. So does the teenagers and young adults who were able to get to Europe or Russia in 2022 and would be eligible to serve in VSU now – these are things the Nazi’s and Soviets didn’t need to be too worried about as each new age group at 18 or 19 would bring another million recruits for each new year who  would be able to fight in the Wehrmacht or Red Army.
The Sq kms gained is also not a primary concern for one other reason- the goals of Russia and the goals of Ukraine are in unison. Ukraine wants to destroy as much of the Donbass as possible because they always hated it for being Russian and  the more fighting then it makes things harder for Russia. The more Donbass is destroyed the more money Russia has to put into it , and if front lines do get frozen and parts of Donbass stay in Ukraine then the more of their part destroyed then the more western money flows into that exceptionally corrupt ukronazi government 
 
For Russia, they want to take Donbass, preferably without fighting for it, but if the ukronazis insist then they will fight and destroy the VSU.  So here the goals align as Russia is fighting to liberate and Ukraine is fighting to sabotage not liberate anywhere they consider their own.
So yes, it’s vitally important to have a sense of the losses of Ukraine. France and Polands military manpower was far from exhausted by the time they surrendered to the Nazi’s.  France and poland had far less battles to get to Europe point of surrender to the Nazi’s then the west/ukraine is initiating in the Donbass against Russia.

Posted by: Winston | Apr 17 2026 0:37 utc | 26

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 0:08 utc | 23
 
In reality , UK borrowing costs have gone down not up.
 
 
-wayland.com/blog/in-reality-uk-borrowing-costs-have-gone-down/
 
 
Not that you would ever ask yourself  this  very simple question ……
 
 
When the UK issues it’s own currency why does it borrow £’s ?
 
Because if you knew the very simple answer to that very simple question. You wouldn’t poison the bar with your very  stupid nonsense.

Posted by: Andrew | Apr 17 2026 0:44 utc | 28

Good points from Nobody Special in his last comment.
 
I would add that after a far more brutal war, the Russian civil war, Soviet society and split families came together by the time of WW2.
 
Or in Chechnya, a war as vicious,  probably more vicious than the SMO, only smaller in scale. It’s a miracle the peace and what Russia managed to achieve there and with the Chechen people.
 
But the complication, particularly with mentally deficient people like “Ukrainians ” is that when America rebuilds it gets hyper loyalty. Russia helped all these guys become rich and powerful – Poroshenko, Kolomoisky, Zelensky, akhmetov, and many ordinary Ukrainians. ..and got  disgraceful treachery as thanks

Posted by: Winston | Apr 17 2026 0:53 utc | 30

I see more cuckhold behaviour from the Russian leadership with this pathetic list of “targets” in the west producing weapons , primarily drones,  for the ukrainians. In this case, even no threat wouldnt have been as weak as this “warning” which has already lost all significance  after all the empty rhetoric previously about “red lines”
 
The stupid message conveyed by Russian MOD is that its OK to produce cruise missiles and artillery shells like Thales factory in Northern Ireland does to kill Russians ?  Or Rheinnmetal. BAE. Airbus – and you can won’t even receive a “warning” or make it into the “dreaded” list!!
A “warning” list that doesn’t even target the biggest defence companies in Europe providing the most weaponry to Ukraine!! Utterly pathetic 
This fag behaviour from Russian leadership is going to fu*k over United Russia in the duma elections this year. If Putin dissasociates himself from United Russia in a cynical piece of manipulation ..then Russian public will lose patience with him and f**k him over and out of office.
 
The MOD also appears to be promoting the theory that American defence companies have refound Jesus and aren’t going to be attempting to make any money from the Ukraine war (I hope the sarcasm easily detected )….because these imbeciles haven’t mentioned anything about American companies role either. 
 
Shambolic
 

Posted by: Winston | Apr 17 2026 1:28 utc | 32

Posted by: Winston | Apr 17 2026 0:53 utc | 30

Or in Chechnya, a war as vicious,  probably more vicious than the SMO, only smaller in scale. It’s a miracle the peace and what Russia managed to achieve there and with the Chechen people.

I agree with the first sentence. But it was definitely not a miracle. The Chechnya peace was carefully engineered and shows that’s possible even after extreme violence. I expect the same in all parts of Ukraine that become Russian.

Posted by: Konami | Apr 17 2026 2:00 utc | 34

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayastha | Apr 17 2026 2:16 utc | 35
 
The trolls driven from here like snakes from Ireland, had to go somewhere.  Poor Martyanov.  He can just lay the banhammer down.  Then they’ll come back here.

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 2:19 utc | 36

BREAKING NEWS:
FINNISH GOVERNMENT Helsinki lifts nuclear ban
 
“This week, the Finnish government plans to submit a bill to parliament that would open the door to the import of nuclear weapons into the country,” the ambassador noted. “Of course, this development naturally raises our concerns. You don’t need to be a military expert to understand that the presence of nuclear weapons in Finland, or even the theoretical possibility of their appearance here at any time, will be fully taken into account in Russian nuclear planning.”
 
The Helsinki move fits in with the NATO’s overall policy of engaging non-nuclear countries in “joint nuclear deterrence” schemes. Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva, Gennady Gatilov, previously noted that alliance states are actively preparing for a coordinated strike scenario.
 
If the amendments are adopted, Finnish nuclear-capable F-35A fighter jets purchased from the US will receive the legal basis for participating in such missions. The Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly emphasized that in the event of NATO aggression, the use of the full arsenal of weapons to ensure national security will be immediate and inevitable. Further escalation in the Baltic-Arctic region, where the interests of both sides intersect particularly closely, is becoming increasingly likely.
 
Russia is warning Helsinki of the serious risks of such a hasty revision of neutrality. Moscow hopes that Finnish parliamentarians will understand the risky adventure they are being drawn into. It’s worth noting that even during the NATO accession debate, the Finnish parliament reached a consensus that there was no need to change relevant legislation to participate in the alliance’s nuclear planning. The government’s current initiative raises serious questions and only exacerbates the European security situation.

• Dmitry Melnikov

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Apr 17 2026 3:47 utc | 38

Finnish news reporting that a missile entered Finnish airspace from Russia last night. I can see 4 high altitude trails of aircraft over the border. Saw what looked like a t95 enter Finland and turn southwest. Haven’t seen aircraft for years 

Posted by: Tommy | Apr 17 2026 4:26 utc | 40

It means that nobody else wants your currency.
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 0:56 utc | 31If nobody wants it, then there wouldn’t be the “debt” there in the first place. The existence of the “debt” is prima facia evidence that people do want the “currency”, since holding the currency is what creates the debt as a matter of accounting.It’s also the reason why the Russian economy hasn’t collapsed in the way that the Americans expected it to. Any “debt” is in roubles and the rouble is not pegged to anything. The same applies to any sovereign currency area, whether that is the Eurozone, Sterling or USD.
Myths about financing will not end the current wars. The “debt” is always “sustainable”.

Posted by: The Accountant | Apr 17 2026 5:50 utc | 42

Incidentally, I saw on Simplicius’ latest output tonight a claim by “GM” that he “was very quickly banned there”, meaning banned at Moon of Alabama.  It was a reply to a post made about the character of postings at Moon of Alabama forum regarding the Russia-Ukraine war.  I think it might be the shortest post I have ever seen by that overly prolific commenter.  Simply, “I was very quickly banned there”.  I question if that is true.  If so, smart move.  

Posted by: zamboni | Apr 17 2026 8:40 utc | 44

“If a country continues to spend more than it earns, bad things will ultimately happen.”
Nope. See Russia for details.
“Systematic deficits need to be financed by raising taxes.”
Nope. See Russia for details.
The accounting counterparty of deficits are savings, when those savings are spent they will necessarily generate the additional taxation necessary to match the deficit. It’s a simple geometric progression a child can do. 
It’s endlessly entertaining watching people state these beliefs as facts. It’s up there with “God will punish the sinners” and just as intractable regardless of the evidence presented. 

Posted by: The Accountant | Apr 17 2026 9:18 utc | 46

You see how they are talking about war of annihilation as an inevitable outcome. And Ukrainian blood is just buying time.
 

The EU plans to prolong the conflict in Ukraine until 2030 in order to have time to prepare for a war with Russia without US involvement, according to the Chief of the Belgian General Staff, General Frederik Vansina.
“We still have a few years thanks to the blood of Ukrainians, which is buying us this time,” he added.

https://x.com/runews/status/2045071977598136553

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 17 2026 9:40 utc | 48

Posted by: Konami | Apr 17 2026 10:03 utc | 49
 
The real question in that case is – since Russian border states have already been attacking Russia by themselves with drones – who has the real escalatory dominance. AFAIK these border states have already shot a large part of their load, but Russia has by now easily stockpiled hundreds of thousands of long range drones, potentially a million precisely to counter EU/Nato.
 
I don’t see Finland, Baltic states, Poland, Germany, France or UK being able to defend at all, even mostly against drones. Recent drone incursions into their territories (most likely Ukies didn’t ask for approval) prove this point.
 
Their air force based defense against drones will wear out quickly, their expensive F-35s will be grounded quickly, their missiles will run out quickly and so on.
 
So really when it comes to the issue of war and long range strikes, it all really depends on how well Russia has mapped out critical targets in Europe. Then it’s just a matter of sending a bunch of drones of which most will hit the target as the EU aircraft based defense is slow or worn out or perhaps runs out of jet fuel (pun intended).
 
Russia should focus on developing cheap and effective short range and point defense systems so it can rapidly multiply and place them to protect its critical installations to eliminate the only real potential of EU/Nato.

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 17 2026 10:13 utc | 50

What a disgrace if the excellent commentator GM is banned.
 
Why would you , the Russian defence ministry,publish a pathetic list that whitewashes American defence companies continued massive role in supplying Ukraine with weapons and doesn’t even mention ANY of the top European defence companies factories??
 
The sheep on here can’t answer that

Posted by: Winston | Apr 17 2026 10:27 utc | 52

Talk is cheap. They help attack Russia because the can. Putin frittered away Russia’s deterrence and NATO now believes they can do whatever they want. It is why I call it The Great Performative War. Because Putin won’t allow a real one. 
Posted by: Maverick | Apr 16 2026 16:26 utc | 3
 
You’re on the right track but you’ve got it backwards.
It’s the EU’s deterrance in the form of the US military’s NATO obligation to defend Europe that’s being frittered away.
Do you think it’s a coincidence that Shoigu makes his statement the very week that the USA shit the bed in Iran? The US military is busy this week moving assets from Europe to the ME … do you think Trump’s willing to stop all that and protect Kaunas leaving Tel Aviv undefended?
What do the Baltics offer Trump for their defence? Resort development opportunities on the Baltic coast and $100 campaign contribution?

Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 17 2026 10:37 utc | 54

Meant to post this earlier, a long essay describing how the Ukrainian youth scouting movement “Plast” turned into a Nazi brainwashing culture: https://ukrleakseng.substack.com/p/plast-on-the-front-how-the-kiev-regime

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 10:51 utc | 56

And a Ukrainian-focused topic on the discussion about finances: why is Ukraine on tenterhooks for €90 billion of “aid”? Why doesn’t the NBU just issue €90 billion equivalent in hryvnia? Roughly ₴4½ trillion?
 
Could it be because counterparties don’t want to get lumbered with a load of useless, worthless hryvnias?
 
All currencies are “pegged”, they’re pegged to what a counterparty thinks they’re worth. 

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 11:02 utc | 58

s also has a new post on the off-Ukraine targets , clearly there is an announcement of the type of escalation RF avoided at all cost for 4 years
 
 
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/serious-escalation-russian-mod-implies
 
 
could also be seen as stage one of reversal of nato advances since 1991

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 17 2026 11:29 utc | 60

Posted by: Konami | Apr 17 2026 10:24 utc | 51
Estonia : 1.33M
Latvia : 1.84M
Lithuania : 2.8M 
And counting … those 3 are amongst the fastest depopulating countries in the world.
Why the Russians don’t care about them ? Well … do they do really need a reason for not caring ? Add stupid and corrupt rulers in the mix and you get massive emigration ontop : the “problem” , also not really big to begin with, will resolve itself.
You don’t kill a suicidal man : you rent him a rope.

Posted by: Savonarole | Apr 17 2026 12:47 utc | 62

reply to 29
https://obr.uk/box/the-changing-maturity-composition-of-gilt-issuance/#:~:text=The%20share%20of%20either%20short,sensitivity%20to%20interest%20rates%20rises.
It’s fair that the % for gilt borrowing has gone down but also maturities have declined as well. This eventually means rolling debt over more frequently  and being forced to borrow for shorter periods of time. 

Posted by: Eighthman | Apr 17 2026 13:35 utc | 64

Last comment from me on finances: https://no01.substack.com/p/steve-keens-magical-accounting
 
As the writer puts it, some describe the plumbing, others are trying to describe what happens when the plumbing is stuffed full of sewage.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 13:44 utc | 66

Infrastructure suffered again:

In Chernihiv, after the attack of the Russian Federation, a thermal power plant was stopped: a city without hot water

In Chernihiv, as a result of a massive Russian attack on the night of April 17, the Chernihiv CHP temporarily suspended its work
 

This was reported by the Municipal Enterprise “Teplokommunenergo”, RegioNews reports.
 
It is noted that due to damage to a critical infrastructure facility, as of April 17, the supply of hot water to the company’s consumers was stopped in the city.
 

“Unfortunately, critical infrastructure facilities were again subjected to targeted damage, which affected the stability of their functioning,” Teplokommunenergo noted.
 

Currently, emergency services, technicians and management are working on the spot. Specialists assess the extent of the damage and determine the timing of the resumption of work.
 
The company added that they are making every effort to restore the provision of services as soon as possible and call on residents to treat the situation with understanding.
 
Recall that on the night of Friday, April 17, Russian troops struck critical facilities in the city of Chernihiv. As a result of the strike, an energy facility in the Chernihiv district was damaged. Because of this, almost 6 thousand subscribers in the city were left without electricity.

https://regionews.ua/ukr/news/chernigovshchina/1776418963-u-chernigovi-pislya-ataki-rf-zupinili-tets-misto-bez-garyachoyi-vodi (via translation add-on.)

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 14:06 utc | 68

Hmm…the more the non Russians emigrate from the Baltics. The higher the ratio of Russian natives..,..to declare independence? 

Posted by: Jo | Apr 17 2026 15:14 utc | 70

Long and useless Russian article – only proves what everyone knew, that the entire EU/NATO just ignores whatever comes from the Kremlin for many years.    One thing is for sure, the nationalists are really pissed with Putinz politics. 
 
The shit show and excuses continues, atleast it’s all mostly contained within Europe. 
 
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov made another statement….  
Here’s another “threatening statement,” this time from a Kremlin spokesman, addressed to the sponsors of the Kyiv regime. The problem is that quite a few such statements have been made over the past four years, and the number of countries openly providing all kinds of military assistance to Kyiv is far greater than the Defense Ministry’s list. Various warnings have been issued against them before, but people have simply gotten used to them and are ignoring them.
 
So far, Europe has responded to all of Moscow’s “serious final warnings” with more than a formality. Commenting on Shoigu’s warnings at a briefing in Brussels, EC spokesperson Anita Hipper stated that she had found no evidence of Ukrainian drones flying over EU countries to strike Russia. Falling debris and even explosions of drones officially recognized as Ukrainian in the Baltic republics, Poland, and Finland clearly do not constitute evidence in the EU official’s view.
 
https://en.topwar.ru/281198-peskov-soslalsja-na-minoborony-kommentiruja-proizvodstvo-v-evrope-dronov-dlja-vsu.html

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Apr 17 2026 16:38 utc | 72

Posted by: Winston | Apr 17 2026 10:27 utc | 52
———————
Ok, we’ve got a new GM/William/Shadowbanned.
Look at his first posts and how they consistently are now deviating to a criticism of Russia.

Posted by: scc | Apr 17 2026 16:47 utc | 74

Foreign mercs down!
 
They all came to fight Russia and lost.
 
Hudson Alves Araujo from Brazil
 
Lucas Sobral from Brazil
 
Igor de Aguiar Amazonas from Brazil
 
Santiago Andres Ortiz Gomez from Colombia
 
Yolvis Miguel Hoyos Marino from Colombia
 
Camilo Andres Guevara Vilo callsign Cobra from Colombia
 
Aroldo Jose Riveira Iguaran from Colombia
 
Jhon Jairo Gonzalez Trejos from Colombia
 
Juan Pablo Cely Ramirez from Colombia

Posted by: MiniMO | Apr 17 2026 17:21 utc | 76

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 13:44 utc | 66
 
“Last comment from me on finances: https://no01.substack.com/p/steve-keens-magical-accounting “
 
Thank you for posting this eloquent and enjoyable text.
 

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Apr 17 2026 18:22 utc | 78

Posted by: Konami | Apr 17 2026 10:24 utc | 51
 
You don’t think at least Poland would come to Estonia’s aid?  Maybe now, even Hungary too?
As to this:   “Kallas on Finland’s neutrality and safety”  Kallas’s  believes the abandonment of neutrality was for Finland safety.

Posted by: ed4 | Apr 17 2026 20:27 utc | 80

Posted by: malenkov | Apr 17 2026 18:24 utc | 79
 
You just don’t get it. The overwhelming majority of Russians live in their moms’ basements and WANT BIG BOOM BOOM NOW. Preferably with NUUUUKES!!1!
 
Another absolutely clueless wanker. Almost every Russian peoples’ family lost members during the GPW. If not, it was their neighbours and friends. They desire peace, but a just peace. They don’t want armageddon, but don’t push them into that, they will accept it!

Posted by: Peter Williams | Apr 17 2026 21:17 utc | 82

Posted by: Peter Williams | Apr 17 2026 21:17 utc | 82
 
Malenkov was being sarcastic… …we have an infestation of trolls here who hate Putin and call for nuclear warfare.. ….or policies that would lead to it immediately.
————–
I fear you might have misjudged the post from @ Peter Williams. His name is familiar to me from my lurking at Andrei’s blog. He is one of a community of Western ex-pats (along with @ Moscow Exile, among others) who has posted there about his experiences of successfully settling in Russia.
 
Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 17 2026 21:45 utc | 83
 
yeah, peter williams is alright.   he drops in here from time to time.
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 22:06 utc | 84

Four buildings of the Main (Pulkovo) Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in St. Petersburg were damaged by a Ukrainian drone attack.
 
Also this evening, debris from a downed drone damaged a high-rise building under construction in Belgorod.

Posted by: MiniMO | Apr 17 2026 22:37 utc | 86

Accidentally posted this to the Iran thread:
 
Simplicius headline: Serious Escalation: Russian MOD Implies Threatening Consequences Against Europe for Being Party to Conflict I enjoy Simplicius, have few qualms with him, except a tiny bit of overoptimism, but I am going to analyse this kind of headline and give it a bit of a critique. Are words, threats, and protests “escalations”?  No, they are not.  They are words, threats, and protests.   If one were to term them “escalations”, the best they could say is they are “escalations” in the war of words.   The war of words, however, is not serious.  All escalations, are not even escalations, they are adaptations.  To say they are “escalations” implies all the effort before was not a serious effort to win.  Every nation goes to war with at its top escalation it can achieve.  The only escalations that happen in war are due to technological or force power changes, not tactical changes. Violence is the only serious escalation there is, and even then, many violent “escalations” I would hardly consider serious, as often, they are hitting “more than usual” of target types that have been targeted before. Why so nit-picky?  Because to me, it sounds ridiculous when I read a headline like that, knowing once I start reading the actual article, i will find it wasn’t serious, and hardly an escalation.  If it were a “serious” escalation, that would mean “victory” was right around the corner.  In fact, i would consider the blooming incursions into Sumy to perhaps be the more “serious escalation”, but we will have to see how that plays out. The Conundrum, and why Russia Continues to make threats and protests: On the flip side, we have a bunch of whiners crying about “red lines drawn that Putin allows to be continuously crossed without lifting a finger”.     Any realist would acknowledge, Russia must continue to make these threats and protests, regardless of how “humiliating” it is to then watch their adversaries walk right over those lines, and scoff at the protests.  It is clear no matter how many protests and threats Russia makes, no pirate behaviour stops, no weapons are held back, no NATO officers are afraid to go to Ukraine to advise. Protest and threaten anyway.   One should note, Russia protested for eight years from 2014 to 2022, about Ukraine in the Donbass, and constant violations of Minsk and Minsk II.  Then, Russia went in.  And that is what Russia is doing right now, and has been doing with every protest and threat.  They are not “serious escalations”, they are making notes on record, building the case for future wars and invasions.  Because diplomacy is more important than war.  Having friends and allies is more important than making artillery or more drones. So a more realistic take on russia’s threat is, “Russia doing what it has to do”. Of course that would not get clicks.  Do not mistake this little essay as a condemnation of Simplicius and other bloggers for writing headlines for getting clicks, however.   It is necessary if Russia wants to add yet another point on a list of hundreds of points why it has the right to invade and destroy almost any NATO country on the planet, that the message be heard, and that would not happen without propaganda, another essential weapon of war. Instead, I wrote this to note for those who know realpolitik, that surely, another threat is not a “serious escalation”.
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 23:39 utc | 88

The direct threat to the Russian motherland which this war was ostensibly launched to prevent, has now fully arrived. No amount of bombing, nor the feeding of men into no-mans-land, can ever restore the security that russia enjoyed before the start of this conflict.
Posted by: john locke | Apr 17 2026 15:40 utc | 71
 
When has Russia ever enjoyed a secure border?
 
How many times and by how many nations has Russia been invaded by Europeans?
 
Germany, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Great Britain, Italy, USA and Japan have all invaded Russian territory since 1917 say nothing of the Cold war and NATO expansion. Go back a couple of centuries and you could include just about every nation in Europe and if they aren’t fighting a kinetic war against them they’re fighting an economic or propaganda war
 
Russia has been fighting constantly to secure it’s borders year in and year out for a century … Ukraine is just business as usual.

Posted by: HB_Norica | Apr 18 2026 1:18 utc | 90

Russia = fucked

Posted by: PeterAU | Apr 18 2026 1:39 utc | 92

The Putin Dance (official music video)
 
https://odysee.com/@Velyaminov:a/The-Putin-Dance-(official-music-video):c

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 18 2026 1:52 utc | 94

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 23:41 utc | 89
 
“One should note, however, Russia protested for eight years from 2014 to 2022, about Ukraine in the Donbass, and constant violations of Minsk and Minsk II.  Then, Russia went in.  And that is what Russia is doing right now, and has been doing with every protest and threat.  They are not “serious escalations”, they are making notes on record, building the case for future wars and invasions.  Because diplomacy is more important than war.  Having friends and allies is more important than making artillery or more drones.”
 
Congratulations for this outstanding essay.

Posted by: Jan Sobieski | Apr 18 2026 7:21 utc | 96

And where are these allies and friends?
Posted by: rk | Apr 18 2026 8:37 utc | 97
 
Not attacking Russia.  Not sanctioning Russia.  Selling Russia goods and parts for drones.
 
That’s better than not selling Russia goods and parts for drones, sanctioning Russia, and of course, attacking Russia.
 
 
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 18 2026 8:43 utc | 98

Posted by: Andrew | Apr 17 2026 0:38 utc | 27
What does ” unsustainable debt ” debt mean when you issue your own currency ?

 
Oh, I don’t know. Why don’t you ask some people living in Argentina?
 
Or, better than that, Zimbabwe.
 
They have some experience in that area of economy and money.  And perhaps it’s worth remembering that the modern abstract pseudo-science called Economics was originally developed from the practice of empirical, evidence-based Home Economics.  The root of Economics is Oikos: Home and/or Household.
  
 

Posted by: Clever Dog | Apr 18 2026 10:11 utc | 100