Helmer’s most recent piece is not kind to Russia, at least relative to Iran.
 
https://johnhelmer.net/the-dolittle-question-the-do-nothing-answer-the-power-shift-which-the-iran-war-is-causing-in-moscow

Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Apr 9 2026 16:23 utc | 3

Ukronatzio ‘soldiers’ are busy fighting for the entity in Lebanon etc. 
 
Meanwhile body exchanges continue. 
 
RF handed over 1000, they got 40 back. 
 
The end game is on, ukropia is a fading wraith.
 
 
ignored so that it can be memory holed. 
 
Along with the Epstein class… the smoke and thunder in west Asia has such other purposes. 

Posted by: DunGroanin | Apr 9 2026 18:52 utc | 5

The Great Performative War continues because real war is not allowed.  
 
Posted by: Maverick | Apr 9 2026 15:08 utc | 1
Tell that to the families of the wounded, you coward.  

Posted by: Ahenobarbus | Apr 9 2026 20:10 utc | 7

I know the casualty numbers favor Russia if only because of its air power and FABs but I found it hard to believe in ratios like 10:1 especially given the WW1 style stagnant lines and wall to wall use of drones by both sides, but that stagnant front together with the Ukrainian offensive to push back Russian successes in Pokrovsk and Huliaipole over the last couple of months would also indicates that the Russians aren’t advancing much ahead of their dead and so not leaving many for the Ukraine to collect, while themselves collecting many more retreating Ukrainian dead. IOW the slower the movement the less skewed the ratio should be. And, these exchanges have been 1000 : <100 for a very long while at this point. I’m now convinced the 10:1 stuff is accurate.
 
Crazy, 2-3 years of 10:1, a normal country would have surrendered long ago, espcially since it’s really a civil war and the Russians have never demanded maximalist terms, it’s clear Ukraine is owned and operated by NATO and that its people are being used as cannon fodder until NATO figures out how it will join the war:
 

Russia and Ukraine swap fallen soldiers — Russian State Duma deputy Saraliev confirms 1,000 bodies of Ukrainian troops — in exchange for 41 Russian servicemen
 
https://t.me/vicktop55/43325

Posted by: LightYearsFromHome | Apr 9 2026 21:25 utc | 9

CC @ 6, Titmouse @ 10:
 
The fine applies only to those people who deliberately peel the husks off onions in the shops – leaving possibly damaged bulbs behind to deteriorate, creating waste for store employees to clean up – to take home to make the dyes for colouring Easter eggs.

Posted by: Refinnejenna | Apr 9 2026 22:35 utc | 11

12: title corrected: ‘Kiev Regime Plotting Terror Attacks on Russian Ships in Northern Seas With Norway’s Help’

Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 9 2026 23:44 utc | 13

LightYearsFromHome | Apr 9 2026 21:25 utc | 9
 
Based on the front line videos I’m seeing recently, I think 10:1 is very realistic. At times this is a turkey shoot for Russia, with obviously untrained conscripts who don’t know how to defend themselves literally taking drones to the face as they get shoved to the front in old trucks and ATVs. It’s ugly. And also keep in mind that Ukraine is continuously on the “offensive” in this war. I’m surprised more people don’t talk about this: how completely insane it is for the smaller weaker party in a conflict to be on the offensive while allowing the “invader” to play defence and play ‘whack a mole.’ These Ukie assaults are costly and always fail and get reversed in a few weeks. Some have pointed out that Ukraine has gained a lot of land in the past month (relatively speaking) and therefore the old cope about how Russia is always advancing and thus collecting the bodies should not apply, and yet the ratio remains the same. Ukies just kidnap some more people off the streets and the war continues.

Posted by: Moonraker | Apr 10 2026 2:20 utc | 15

Update on using a credit card for donation. Above I said that I couldn’t use a credit card for donation.
The page came up with a zero in the amount. That is why I couldn’t get a response from clicking on the donate button. I put in 50 Euros and it went through just fine. 

Posted by: DonMidwest USA | Apr 10 2026 3:05 utc | 17

To ucraine – dont wait, until it is to late
 
TITLE: BEHIND THE SHADOW – REGAINING CONTROL: AN OPERATIONAL GUIDE FOR DEMOCRATIC RECLAMATION
 
I. PREAMBLE: THE DOCTRINE OF FUNCTIONAL REPLACEMENT
 
Democratic reclamation does not rely on moral appeal alone. It succeeds by outperforming criminal structures in providing security, predictability, and essential services. The goal is to strip the “shadow government” of its monopoly on problem-solving.
 
II. DETAILED STRATEGIC PHASES
 
PHASE 1: SECURING THE INTERNAL PERIMETER (COMMUNICATION & INTEL)
 
– Encryption & Offline Nets: Establish a dual-layered communication system. 
  Layer A: Encrypted digital platforms (Signal/Matrix) for strategic  coordination.
Layer B: Physical “trust-nodes” (cafés, workshops) for  face-to-face verification.
 
– Mapping the Capture: Identify which specific municipal functions are  compromised (e.g., procurement, waste management, licensing). 
– Deep-State Engagement: Identify “hostage officials”—bureaucrats who   comply with criminal orders due to coercion but possess the technical knowledge to revert the system once protection is guaranteed.
 
PHASE 2: DECOUPLING FROM SHADOW LOGISTICS (ECONOMIC SOVEREIGNTY)
– Micro-Cooperatives: Launch neighborhood-level cooperatives for heating,  food distribution, and basic repairs. This eliminates the “favor-based” economy where criminals trade basic needs for loyalty.
– Auditing the Pipeline: Target the Municipal Treasury (Kämmerei). 
  Implement “Open Book” policies. Every cent of public money must be  trackable online. Criminal structures collapse when they can no longer  overcharge for public contracts.
 
PHASE 3: INSTITUTIONAL RECONQUEST (ADMINISTRATIVE LEVERS)
– The Regulatory Office (Ordnungsamt): Reclaim the power to inspect and  fine. Kriminelle businesses often operate outside building codes or health   standards. Strict, neutral enforcement makes criminal business models   unprofitable.
 
– The Procurement Board: Centralize all city purchases through an  independent, citizen-monitored board to prevent “kickback” contracts to   criminal-linked firms.
 
– Judicial & Police Liaisons: Establish direct reporting lines to regional  or national law enforcement to bypass local officers who may be   compromised or intimidated.
 
PHASE 4: SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE & “EXIT BRIDGES” (HEARTS & MINDS)
 
– Public Space Reclamation: Re-introduce “Civil Presence Patrols”—not  vigilantes, but groups of citizens occupying parks and squares through   legitimate social activity (markets, sports, lighting projects).
 
– Neutralizing Recruitment: Rebuild the Youth Social Work department.  Offer vocational training and micro-grants for startups. If the city   offers a future, the “shadow” cannot recruit the youth.
– Amnesty & Reintegration: Create a clear “Golden Bridge.” Offer low-level   collaborators a path back to legal society if they provide information.   Isolation of the criminal core is achieved by forgiving the periphery.
 
III. THE FIVE PILLARS OF PERSISTENCE
 
1. Predictability: The democratic administration must be boringly   reliable. No “favors,” only laws.
2. Transparency: “Shadows” cannot survive in the light. All meetings and    decisions must be public.
3. Collective Security: Ensure no single citizen stands alone against   intimidation. Use the “Mass Participation” principle.
4. Fast Wins: Repair a bridge or a school within weeks of taking   office to prove the new system works.
5. Diaspora Engagement: Connect with former residents who fled the   criminal structure to bring back expertise and external investment.
 
IV. CONCLUSION
Control is regained when the citizen no longer asks the “local boss” for help, but trusts the municipal clerk. The transition from “Subject” to “Citizen” is the ultimate victory over the shadow.

Posted by: BlindSpot | Apr 10 2026 6:23 utc | 19

Posted by: Avtonom | Apr 10 2026 7:42 utc | 22
Not only that but there is also a huge gap on the “capabilities” on both armies. Basically the RUAF have more choices available on how to inflict losses and retrieve and mitigate their own losses.
 
AFU drones capabilities seems to have reduce lately. They used to be able to strike the logistic at the rear more often before, they may have enhanced efficiency since but it didn’t compensate the mass effect loss. 
 
Then there is the tactical part, both sides are engaging in “DRG” operations and that’s where having bussified conscripts instead of trained volunteers shows the most.
 
I also see a disparity in terrain interdiction tactics , with less mines fields used lately by the AFU. ISR and drone strike are once again used as a palliative, but once again , you only have so much drones. On the other hands , Russians drone operator seems to use the “camping” technique more and more with static drones deployed deep and idling , waiting for some foes to ambush.
 
That was my 2 cents. 

Posted by: Savonarole | Apr 10 2026 9:01 utc | 21

Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update, 10th April 2026: May be Useful to Some: Ukraine and World Affairs: Weekly Update

Posted by: The Busker | Apr 10 2026 11:39 utc | 23

“Helmer’s most recent piece is not kind to Russia, at least relative to Iran.”
 
 https://johnhelmer.net/the-dolittle-question-the-do-nothing-answer-the-power-shift-which-the-iran-war-is-causing-in-moscow
 
Posted by: Fool Me Twice | Apr 9 2026 16:23 utc | 3
 
“Fool me twice”.  Jogs the memory, that.  Could give us a bit of a lead on Putin’s motivation.
 
Helmer, Doctorow, Girkin and many Russian milbloggers fear that Putin hasn’t got his heart in this war.  Also that he’s either under the thumb of the Russian Oligarchs or is working in tandem with them.
 
They’re also hoping for a thoroughgoing reform of Russian politics resulting from the war, that hope expressed most explicitly by Dugin here:-
 
https://thepostil.com/the-wagner-factor-and-the-fairness-principle/
 
That reference recycled from an amateur’s look at Dugin – mine – here:-
 
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/squaring-an-impossible-circle-of-peace-and-insecurity-in-ukraine
 
It’s important to stress “amateur” because that’s what most of us in the West are when we look at politics.  Rank amateurs.  We don’t get to see the archives and we’re not privy to the key discussions.   Even in the case of my own country it’s difficult enough to tell what the politicians are getting up to.  Like observing a sackful of ferrets.  You can see a few bulges in the sack and hear the squeaks as they scramble around in there but that’s it when you attempt to discern what a Starmer or a Johnson are really doing or wanting to do. 
 
Ten times more difficult in the case of a foreign country so pretending to be au fait with the dynamics of Russian politics can only be pretence and not analysis.  We do not truly know what drives the men in the Kremlin and what pressures they must accommodate so all too often we project our own prejudices and preconceptions onto them instead.  Thus we end up with Putin the Sinister Dictator, the Hitler of our Times, that we see portrayed in much of the Western media or Putin, the Lackey of the Oligarchs, that others choose to see him as.
 
From what little I see, though, I go with Putin the Careful.  Just that.  Risk averse.  Preferring the slow incremental move to the dramatic but chancier coup de grace.
 
Based on what I saw at the time the events of late’21/early ’22 took him right out of his comfort zone.   He was confronted with a situation in which the slow incremental move, the considered diplomatic manoeuvring,  would no longer cut it.  In which restraint would be taken as timidity and delay as dithering and both would lead to disaster.  “Sod it.  If that’s how it is then that’s how it is,” he said to himself and let loose his Generals.
 
Not only Putin.  A whole raft of senior Russian officials and politicians, who’d thought it’d be possible to get along somehow with the West –  and some of whom very much wanted to – got a dash of cold water in the face and dropped that line for good.   Or left the country.  I happened to see a photo of Chubais standing in line at a Turkish ATM and that photo said it all.  Later, Professor Robinson was to detail  that sea change of early 2022 in a keynote article that it’s a pity wasn’t taken note of in Washington.
 
“Russia at a turning point?”
 
https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/russia-at-a-turning-point
 
The Karaganov Doctrine, or the Primakov Doctrine, or whatever they call that realisation in Russia that the West was definitely not their friend and was never going to be, had won.
 
……………………….
 
So can we call Putin the Lackey of the Oligarchs, the Inveterate Compromiser with the West?   Is Helmer’s line the right one?
 
There’s a lead on that from Professor Roberts, who saw something unusual in February 2022.  Putin off balance.  Quoted in that same Canadian Dimension comment section linked to:-
 
““A few hours later a visibly troubled and emotional Putin returned to the television screen…”
 
You bet he was uncharacteristically “troubled”.  If you look at Scholz’s press conference with Putin in Moscow, and the transcript of the Macron/Putin call, both just before the SMO kicked off, you’ll see that those two had still been at the old game of stringing Putin along.   And later Merkel was to confess she’d been attempting that for years, that confirmed by Poroshenko and, for what it’s worth, Hollande. 
 
I suppose diplomacy is often about stringing the other side along.  I suspect Putin’s been doing that with Trump recently.  So both sides are used to it.  But to try that game right up to the last minute, and then to boast about doing it, is something else.
 
 So I don’t think Helmer and the rest need worry too much about Putin the Shrinking Violet, as they see him.  I reckon he was thoroughly fed up with the Europoodles and Washington thinking they’d taken him for a mug.  The last thing he’s going to do is come back for more.  Whatever else he is Putin is an exceptionally competent Statesman.  Your pen name, “Fool me twice”, isn’t something he’s going to want applied to him and he and his Generals will plod on until they’ve done the denazification and demilitarisation to their satisfaction.  Be interesting to see how.

Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 10 2026 12:46 utc | 25

Re:  Posted by: English Outsider | Apr 10 2026 12:46 utc |  25
= = = =  
Correct. A steamroller action is applied.
The rest of the West can study the effects and learn. The learning part is important. We can see how the situation changed:  no ukrainian-stimulated events or flags anymore.  My knowledge of the russian sphere, cultural sphere, mentality – confirm your analysis. Very good. 
 

Posted by: LogosApplied | Apr 10 2026 16:56 utc | 27

Hi Newbie, re. the ratio you note in comment 28 “so if they still have 1:1 o retired to contributing, not half bad”, I fail to see how this is possible with 10 million retirees in an est. population of 27 million. The latter number may well be correct when one considers war fatalities and refugees, many millions (ca. 4 mil.) of whom who ultimately ended up in Russia AFTER passing west. Leaving aside the war casualty ratios, which we will be ill-equipped to very as yet, I wonder what the potential for reforming UA into a multi-national society closer to that of Soviet times will be, given a Russian victory and an assumed permanency of the EU emigre situation. Note there is a very large population, about 40 million mixed RU-UA (by deep family background) citizens in RU alone with a possibility of 4 million for re-settlement into post-war Ukraine under an RU victory, while the post-Maidan ‘brainwashed’ population is very small, a highly contractive and non-viable cohort really. You seem to be a number cruncher. Any thoughts?   

Posted by: Bruce | Apr 11 2026 0:54 utc | 29

Did I mention 1.220 AFU casualties yesterday?
 
How about some fresh marat, sumy to donetsk
 
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/brief-frontline-report-april-10th

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 11 2026 7:46 utc | 31

Simplicius discusses the burgeoning Ukraine “drone wall” (generically taking his usual positive view of the Russian side of things), though I suspect people here would be more apt to revisit whether Russia should even be in such a putative stalemate situation in the first place, had they acted more forcefully prior.

Posted by: Call it what u will | Apr 11 2026 8:16 utc | 33

EU-Ukraine prepares for provocations in Hungary in the likely event the EU puppet Magyar loses the election.
 
https://x.com/BowesChay/status/2042909740343157053

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 11 2026 10:57 utc | 35

Betting on Force: Why Did the Outcome Become Controversial? — Krapivnik & Martyanov

0:00 — Intro and switch to Russian language
3:07 — Criticism of Israel’s army and ideology
6:04 — Religion, propaganda, and evangelicals
9:05 — Education crisis and military expertise issues
12:06 — Strikes, missiles, and limited resources
14:24 — Analysis of failed special operation and raid
17:17 — Criticism of Trump and leadership decisions
20:15 — Real combat experience vs lack of it
23:02 — Planning failures and Ukraine discussion
26:05 — Limited gains and actual battlefield scale
28:54 — Technology, models, and military calculations
31:02 — Air defense problems and system effectiveness
34:09 — Radar limitations and interception challenges
36:22 — Modern warfare and emerging threats
39:09 — Satellites, intelligence, and information warfare
41:02 — Possible ground operation and risks
43:04 — Ideology, society, and radicalization trends
46:34 — Media, analysis, and alternative voices
49:26 — Future outlook and potential consequences
51:16 — Closing remarks and personal plans

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4WaSp3QYHk

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 11 2026 12:04 utc | 37

Russia oil industry:
 
1.   From Reuters yesterday:  “Russia’s crude oil exports from its main western ports increased in early April compared with March, trading and port sources said and Reuters calculations showed, despite disruptions to loadings caused by ‌drone attacks on energy infrastructure.”
 
Yet again, the doom trolls are hardest hit.  Despite all the hoopla about Ukrain’s mighty drone war against the Russian oil industry, combined with the neverending propaganda about NATO seizing Russian oil tankers, Russian oil exports continue to grow.  Not a single Russian oil tanker has been seized in 2026 and Russia’s Baltic oil terminals remain in operation.
 
2.  From Reuters two days ago:    “The Reuters calculation is some of the first concrete evidence of a windfall for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, from the Iran war, which oil traders say has triggered the most serious energy crisis in recent history.”
 
Wait a gosh darn minute!  Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter?  Who knew?  If I trusted the doom trolls, I would have thought Russia was the poorest third world country in the world.  And it turns out Russia is making more money than they know what to do with?  Crazy!
 
Seems like Russia isn’t going to collapse anytime soon.
 
 
 

Posted by: Nobody Special | Apr 11 2026 16:54 utc | 39

March-plus-April is the Spring thaw (mud) season re. advance rates, why initial German Operation Zitadel plans (cf. Kursk) were FIRST for May (but eventually, delayed until July ’43 for technical reasons).

Posted by: Bruce | Apr 11 2026 18:32 utc | 41

LIVE: Russian President Vladimir Putin Attends Orthodox Easter Mass in Moscow Cathedral | AC15

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 11 2026 21:39 utc | 43

Propaganda in effect –
 
 
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2019030616/david-borenstein-mr-nobody-against-putin

Last month David Borenstein won the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature for Mr Nobody against Putin. A month earlier, he had picked up a BAFTA for the same film. 
The documentary exposes the pro-war curriculum being taught in Russia’s classrooms. 
The film’s main character, teacher and school videographer Pavel “Pasha” Talankin, was uncomfortable with the lessons he and his colleagues were expected to deliver so he surreptitiously captured footage from his school and sent it to David Borenstein, who then crafted the documentary.  Pasha has since fled his country to protect his safety. 
David joins Jim to discuss the making of Mr Nobody Against Putin, the impact he hopes it will have, and what has become of Pasha. 

 
(I heard the interview live and at the end David said “Thank you Jim , I hope that was ok.” In the published audio the “I hope that was ok” has been cut off…)

Posted by: tucenz | Apr 12 2026 3:09 utc | 45

Maybe, just maybe a new model will explain the numbers…
 
Was considering that FABs and thermobarics might leave little to no bodies, and even classic artillery might put a lot of the kills beyond recoverability  without great effort.
 
And kill to maimed ratios completely different, particularly compared to drones.
 
So, RF might have buried 100k and AFU 200k, viable bodies,  but KIA and permanent WIA might tell an even more offset story.
 
What if that means RF KIA 145k and permanent WIA 370k (if adding a significant amount of 1.3M temporary , often repeat, WIA we’d be in AFU’s announced number), while AFU had  KIA 925k and permanent WIA 545k (and over 2M , often repeat, temporary WIA )
 
Yes that gives near (over) 7 kill ratio even if permanent losses ratio is only 3:1 and viable corpses ratio only 2:1
 
Just number crunching but…. might explain things

Posted by: Newbie | Apr 12 2026 10:15 utc | 47