The Lego video’s music is likely done via AI. The generic sound is the tell. If you’ve ever spent time prompting ‘chatty’ to do a rap song, you’ll know.
 
I love how it did the Khamenei again! line in the L.O.S.E.R. video, but that’s not beyond an LLM as well. My buddy had it do a song for him about the girl from the corner store, and chatty came up with check out the girl from the supermarket cashier!

Posted by: persiflo | Apr 16 2026 20:46 utc | 103

[Trump] is draining the Strategic Oil  Reserves.  SPR4 Million Barrels gone in one week.
 
Posted by: golddigger | Apr 16 2026 20:37 utc | 101
 
Just like his predecessor ‘Joe Biden’ did, for cynical election benefit.
 
One could argue that today’s situation is the kind of physical shortage which the SPR was created to address … except for the fact that Trump himself started this useless, criminal war of aggression.

Posted by: Jim H | Apr 16 2026 20:52 utc | 105

https://youtu.be/EGjWvxN1mWs?si=7POIlz7fkrAAPxX5
 
Stopthewar…..Lego animation. Very powerful song. RockIDofficial

Posted by: Jo | Apr 16 2026 21:10 utc | 107

ChatNPC at 102: the report attached somewhere above talked about an armada of crude carriers. The US imports heavy crudes to blend in their own lighter crudes to maximize the output i e gasoline naphtha kero middle distillate lpg und so weiter. The armada might have sneaked out of the red sea to avoid possible troubles further on! In this case my guess is crude for european refiners who shortly will be out of feed stock!

Posted by: nisses | Apr 16 2026 21:14 utc | 109

 🇺🇸 🇻🇦 Reporter: Why are you fighting with the pope? Trump: I have to do what’s right. I have nothing against the pope. Reporter: Then why are you fighting with him?Trump: I’m not fighting with him. The pope made a statement saying Iran can have nuclear weapon. Reporter: He didn’t say that.Trump: I can disagree with the pope. I have the right to do that.

https://t.me/fred33flint/25918
 

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 16 2026 21:22 utc | 111

@ persiflo | Apr 16 2026 20:46 utc | 106
 
agree about the AI for the videos… what do you think is happening with don’s iran music links?? i was thinking AI for these as well.. or some AI on them..

Posted by: james | Apr 16 2026 21:26 utc | 113

Net and Yahoo announced today that they’re not leaving their ‘fortified zone’ in Lebanon. I’m pretty sure they’ll have to eat that statement. It’s either ignominious failure or greater Israhell. The outcome will depend on who will spend the most money/capital. We should start a GOFUNDME. 

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Apr 16 2026 21:26 utc | 115

Posted by: james | Apr 16 2026 21:26 utc | 116
 
Yes. I also suspect some AI input. 
 
But I reposted that one because I like it. Getting into a culture’s sounds is a good entry point or suitable background. Think I’ll become more cosmopolitan –
 
La Habana en la Madrugada – Bolero y Nostalgia

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 16 2026 21:40 utc | 117

Posted by Tom Pfotzer
 
@golddigger | Apr 16 2026 20:37 utc | 101
 
First, thanks for the link to the EIA (US Energy Information Agency) regarding petroleum supplies here in the US. In your post above,  you’d mentioned that:
 
a) the US drew down our Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by “4 million barrels in a week”. The Reserve contains about 409 million barrels, so at 4 million barrels a week, it would take 100 weeks (2 years or so) to fully deplete the SPR.
 
b) imports into the US were “way down”. Apparently, imports fluctuate a great deal; see this chart.
 
It doesn’t look like the US is going to run out of oil, but the US is clearly having to pay world-market prices for oil, and that means prices here in the US will go up sharply (even more) as other countries run low and have to compete for oil in a supply-constrained market. 
 
I’ve seen estimates that between 10% and 20% of total world-wide petroleum production has been curtailed. I can’t find any reliable reporting on how much oil is floating in tankers right now (tankers are often used as floating storage .vs. active transport mechanism), so there is _some_ buffer the sudden shock of 10-20% of oil supply suddenly shutting off.
 
From another MoA poster’s recommendation, I watched Steve Keen this AM talk about the impact on world GDP from a 10 percent reduction in petroleum supplies; he postulates that it would result in a 10% reduction of global GDP.
 
A sudden reduction of 10% of GDP would show up almost entirely in the real economy – e.g. the production, distribution and consumption of goods – that’s what the “suddenly missing” energy would otherwise get used for.
 
But the problem doesn’t just entail a reduction in available supply; it also looks like the shortage will result in a disproportionate increase in price for oil. That causes people  to stockpile oil, and that drives up demand, causing further price increases. Then money that used to get spent on recreation, new cars, etc. has to get spent on petroleum. Producers and marketers of petroleum make out great, and everyone else suffers.
 
Even if the SPR is emptied out, what price does that oil sell for? Who does it get sold to? It’s not clear to me that draining the SPR helps keep world prices down very much (some, but … is it much? We’ve never had a situation since 1973 when so much production got taken off the market so suddenly). 
 
Anyone at the Bar have insights on the impact of 10% of the world’s oil taken off the market, and how fast and where the effects will show up, and which countries’ economy is going to get gored first and most? We’ve gotten a few good reports about the effects the oil shortage is having on the countries that don’t have buffer stocks (thanks, Bingo), but what is everyone else seeing?
 
Please tell us how prices for gas or diesel have changed over the past 30 days in your country, and any reports about “running out” of any petroleum product, and also anything about manufacturing of oil-derived products that is getting shut-down or curtailed due to supply shortages or price increases. 
 
Let’s see if we can get a bead on what’s actually going on.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Apr 16 2026 21:44 utc | 119

Rhymerez@109:
 
“…How Iran is signing their rockets, with the names of children or others killed, messages of peace…but what they are writing on their weapons was profound…”
 
Yes indeed. Inspired. I posted a couple of items a while back on this including dedications of launches to ‘St Mary’ and even ‘In memory of Tupac’. Compare and contrast with the Zio-Nazi President of Israel writing ‘I rely on you’  on munitions to massacre Palestinian civilians in Gaza. Death to USrael – Victory to Iran & Resistance – Free Palestine!
 
 

Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 16 2026 21:52 utc | 121

@122 Tom. “It doesn’t look like the US is going to run out of oil,”
 
For the Time being no. But as listed on the link in post (101) 
US oil fields are pretty much Max production. “Drill Baby Drill” is a  Donderland fantasy. The only thing possible to increase production would be to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska by declaring a National Emergency. But even then it would take quite some time to see a large increase in production. As oil companies are hesitant to invest in. Here today and gone tomorrow government schemes. 
 
Us produces only 13.6 +- MBPD 
US consumes 20.5  MBPD
That shortfall in production has to come from somewhere. It has to be imported, or drawn from reserves which are only a little over 1/2 full.   
Either by  Buying Futures or SPR releases. The price of oil cant be manipulated forever. 
If Trump continues on his insane war path with Iran.  A day of reckoning is swiftly approaching. 
The SPR can only be drawn down so far. It cant be emptied.  Some oil has to be left in to keep the caverns from caving in.  4 Million BPD is almost max pumping capacity.
 
More info on SPR 
https://www.energy.gov/hgeo/opr/spr-faqs
 
US oil demand 2025.
https://energynow.com/2025/10/us-oil-production-is-booming-so-is-demand/

Posted by: golddigger | Apr 16 2026 22:36 utc | 123

Hezbollah Confirms Ceasefire in War with Israel to Take Effect At Midnight (& vid)
 
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2026/04/16/766997/Hezbollah-MP-says-ceasefire-in-war-with-Israel-to-begin-midnight-
 
“A Lebanese parliamentarian from the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc says Iran’s ambassador in Beirut has informed Lebanese officials that a ceasefire will begin Thursday night, describing the agreement as the result of Iranian diplomatic efforts.
 
Hassan Fadlallah, a member of the Lebanese parliament, said Iranian authorities will monitor US compliance with its commitments under the agreement. He added that the resumption of Iran-US negotiations is contingent upon the implementation of those commitments.
 
Fadlallah also stressed that Hezbollah’s adherence to the ceasefire depends on a complete halt to all hostile actions…Outraged Israeli political figures cried foul after the announcement of the Lebanon ceasefire and Iran’s role in securing it.
 
Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, called the ceasefire a ‘betrayal’ of the settlers of northern Israel’s occupied territories. Opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying it was not the first time that all of his regime’s promises had collapsed.
 
Itar Davidi, head of the illegal settlement of Margaliot, told Israel’s Channel 12 that the agreement was not a victory but ‘a disgrace and a complete surrender to Iran and the United States…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 16 2026 22:40 utc | 125

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Apr 16 2026 21:44 utc | 122
 
Well no one here so far has discussed the extremely odd ‘coincidence’ that one of only two oil refineries in Australia was taken offline yesterday by an ‘unprecedented’ fire. So I can report on price fluctuation but explaining that fluctuation is difficult because it is impacted by all these secondary ‘events’.
 
This fire needs to be discussed urgently given that it occurs in the shadow of the government’s imminent decision to slap a windfall profit tax on fossil fuel producers in Australia.
 
Even the MSM journos in the press briefing given by the energy minister Chris Bowen asked: “was it sabotage???”

Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 16 2026 22:45 utc | 127

About a second round of negotiations between the US and Iran. That is an American trap. Larry Johnson writes on Sonar21 tha one of his sources in the UK tells him about a pissibility that Trump will conclude a secound round of negotiations by heavy bombardment of Iran and then declare it a win.
 
Trump is forcing Israel for a ceasefire in Lebanon tp lure Iran into that second round,
 
I wouldn’t go myself. There is nothing to negotiate about. in the first place since Israrl d the US are both aggressors.

Posted by: Richard L | Apr 16 2026 22:46 utc | 129

Oh man! this really is like eating your own shit – poor bastard American sailors! deserve it for not mutinying ! – pigs on the farm eat better! 
 
USA Today now reports that sailors reportedly say ships in the region have been rationing food supplies as the deployment wears on
 
A recent meal aboard the Lincoln CSG, fighting for months off the coast of Iran.
 
https://t.me/megatron_ron/15026#

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Apr 16 2026 22:50 utc | 131

Hegseth’s plagiarism of Samuel Jackson’s monologue from Pulp Fiction was very appropriate.
 
“Pulp Fiction” aptly describes the entire, Made for Hollywood, Trump administration. 

Posted by: golddigger | Apr 16 2026 22:52 utc | 133

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Apr 16 2026 22:50 utc | 134
 
Apart from the AI carrots, it looks like they are eating the Sh!t that came from the USS Gerald Ford processed in different ways. I guess it’s better than US junk food anyway. The King wanted everyone to eat his Sh!t anyway, he made a video about it.

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Apr 16 2026 22:56 utc | 135

@GeorgeWendell | Apr 16 2026 22:56 utc | 138
 
It’s real.  Not fake btw. 
 
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/iran-war-mail-packages-middle-east/89609308007/
 
Dan F. was alarmed when his daughter, a Marine aboard the USS Tripoli, a warship deployed to fight the Iran war, sent him a photo of a meal served on the ship. A lunch tray, two-thirds empty, carried one small scoop of shredded meat and a single folded tortilla.
 
A picture of a mid-April dinner on the USS Abraham Lincoln, shared by a service member with his family, was similarly unappetizing – a small handful of boiled carrots, a dry meat patty and a gray slab of processed meat.
 
Dan and other military family members worried that their loved ones deployed to the Middle East are going hungry are filling boxes with items they hope could help service members ride out prolonged deployments in the Middle East – homemade fudge, Jolly Ranchers, crossword puzzle books, playing cards, toothpaste, Girl Scout cookies and fresh socks. But mail delivery to military ZIP codes across the Middle East has been indefinitely suspended as of April, and packages in transit now hang in limbo.
 

Dan asked to go by his first name only to protect his daughter from retaliation.

Military says war conditions prompted suspension

The U.S. Postal Service temporarily suspended mail delivery to 27 military ZIP codes after the United States and Israel attacked Iran. The Army said there is no end date in sight for the suspension, despite a ceasefire in the war.

Posted by: CrazyCanuck | Apr 16 2026 23:03 utc | 137

The US Constitution  is pulp fiction these days.

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Apr 16 2026 23:11 utc | 139

Well no one here so far has discussed the extremely odd ‘coincidence’ that one of only two oil refineries in Australia was taken offline yesterday by an ‘unprecedented’ fire.
Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 16 2026 22:45 utc | 130
 
Some are way ahead of you, yesterdays thread:
Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Apr 16 2026 10:11 utc | 469
 
 
 

Posted by: Menz | Apr 16 2026 23:19 utc | 141

“…one of his sources in the UK tells him about a pissibility that Trump will conclude a secound round of negotiations by heavy bombardment of Iran and then declare it a win.” ~ Richard L | Apr 16 2026 22:46 utc | 132 
A pissibility for sure.
____
 
“Trump is forcing Israel for a ceasefire in Lebanon tp lure Iran into that second round, I wouldn’t go myself. There is nothing to negotiate about. in the first place since Israrl d the US are both aggressors.” ~ Richard L | Apr 16 2026 22:46 utc | 132
 
Fool me 9 times, shame on me.

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Apr 16 2026 23:33 utc | 143

AI Jesus Slaps Trump
 
https://www.rt.com/news/638498-jesus-slaps-trump-ai/
 
“An Iranian embassy has shown an AI-generated video depicting Jesus casting Donald Trump into hell…”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 16 2026 23:39 utc | 145

Hey, Iran and allies:
There are no ceasefires or peace negotiations until you get completely defanged, and declawed– to the ‘stone ages’ like the guy said. Got it?
They won’t stop until then.
So you will have to return the favor, but not after they say, uncle, but only after you are statisfied that you’ve done what they clearly want to do to you.

Posted by: Strange Bedfellow | Apr 16 2026 23:41 utc | 147

Jet fuel and diesel, not crude oil, is getting sucked out of the US by dozens of tankers, shipped around the globe. So everyone is going to be having shortages.
 
https://x.com/DittiePE/status/2044863192787005915

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2026 23:43 utc | 149

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 16 2026 20:22 utc | 87
do you have a source for this quote?
 
the world is set on fire – from the tongue – book of james.
 
https://www.thelatinlibrary.com/historians/thucyd/thucydides7.html
 
esp ch 82ff, his well-known passage on the corruption of language.
 
build a little Babel in your soul.
 
 

Posted by: duck n cover | Apr 16 2026 23:44 utc | 151

thanks don.. lavrov singles out the euro players as  bad actors here…. i wonder what euros response to this is?? i gather he is inferring france and britian, but perhaps it is more… Posted by: james | Apr 16 2026 20:24 utc | 90

As much as I respect Putin, Lavrov et al, even I can’t help but wait for rk’s thoughts on that.

Posted by: joey_n | Apr 16 2026 23:47 utc | 153

Posted by: unimperator | Apr 16 2026 23:44 utc | 155
 
Is China going to protect shipping or not? 
 
No, it’s not its duty.
 

They could fly in some long range missiles to help Iran clear the blockade even 2000 km away.

 
No. Iran is a sovereign and capable actor. It can do it by itself when the ceasefire end or collapse. Because they don’t break any ceasefire as Netanyahou.
 
All countries on earth doesn’t run to enter any ongoing war “just for fun” as Trump and Co. Thanks God.
 
The question would be : why do you want China to mimic the USA?

Posted by: Sebgo | Apr 16 2026 23:54 utc | 155

 Don Firineach | Apr 16 2026 20:47 utc | 107—
 
Thanks for the Desai/Hudson chat link. IMO, Michael’s conclusion is 100% correct: The Cold War waged by the West was premised by the notion that the Outlaw US Empire would protect the greater Western Empire and its vassals, but that notion has been demonstratively shown to be wrong as the Outlaw US Empire now constitutes a threat not just to the West and its vassals but to the entire world–Neoliberal Imperialism along with Zionism are THE threats to human wellbeing that must be combatted with as much if not more vigor than that done versus the USSR during the Cold War. Dr. Hudson opines Iran’s message to the world is that it must combine to combat the Empire and its Zionist ally if it wants to avoid a devastating “economic winter.” Now, you and I have both seen Steve Keen’s projections and I’ve seen those made by Steve Jermy, and their prognosis is very poor and based on the removal of energy from the global economy, which is very realistic.   

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 16 2026 23:58 utc | 157

John Gilberts | Apr 16 2026 23:39 utc | 148—
 
Yes, as I noted when posting that link, Trump gets beheaded, not slapped.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 16 2026 23:59 utc | 159

@ joey_n | Apr 16 2026 23:47 utc | 156
 
lol.. right kreepy will be along anytime now…  
 
off for an out of town gig now.. back tomorrow.. 

Posted by: james | Apr 16 2026 23:59 utc | 161

Make Israel Palestine Again.Posted by: Dave G | Apr 16 2026 17:50 utc | 28
——————————————————-
Precious, my kinda sassy. Thank you and keep up the good work!

Posted by: Acco Hengst | Apr 17 2026 0:07 utc | 163

Posted by: Ralph Conner | Apr 16 2026 21:26 utc | 118
 
I’m sure there are plenty of folks who would donate, but that’s not the problem.
 
 In probably all of the nations those donors live in their lives would end after convictions for “material support of terrorism” or some other such bs. Money transfer systems would block it all. Result would be nothing.
 
 How do you get it to them?
 
Wont do much good when the money gets confiscated and all the good people get black holed to lifetime incarceration.

Posted by: Archetypex | Apr 17 2026 0:09 utc | 165

karlof1@162:
 
“Trump gets beheaded, not slapped.”
 
vice versa actually.

Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 17 2026 0:11 utc | 167

@Konami | Apr 17 2026 0:08 utc | 167.  Re: reasons for Iran to “negotiate”. Well said, succinct, thorough. (that’s actually hard to do, btw). Good work.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Apr 17 2026 0:14 utc | 169

They really need to listen to Strange Bedfellow and adjust their foreign policy accordingly. Posted by: Konami | Apr 17 2026 0:08 utc | 167
 
It feels like the war just stopped, and is over.
 
What if 12 day war was part of the plan?  What if this ceasefire was part of the plan?   A plan to restart the war once the DJIA hits a certain high?   The market is volatile, and overpriced, and everything else, perfect scaffolding for a black swan.
 
Look at the absolute lack of caution displayed in the stock market.  Caution, which I think every person here understands can not be understated.
 
All we can do is observe and understand,like when dealing with everything else far greater than us.

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 0:22 utc | 171

Caterpillar is now a “weapons manufacturer” … they also sell shoes.
Posted by: Hiro Masamune | Apr 16 2026 19:02 utc | 50
The shoes, like many other Cat products, AREN’T MADE BY CATERPILLAR. Just some cheap, mediocre stuff adding another 40% to the price for the CAT name.
Cat should hang its head in shame – what a downhill ride from the Peoria days to now, where their machines are world renowned for crushing innocents, including American school girls in the West Bank.

Posted by: kupkee | Apr 17 2026 0:29 utc | 173

Re Evangelicals:
 
I observed in 2016 and 2020 elections, many evangelicals who HATED Trump because he was a womanizer, fornicator, cheater, and “not Jesus”, hated that they felt other Christians were idolizing him.
 
It was wise Trump took down the Dr.  Jesus tweet, because any of the above mentioned evangelicals, if had come around to him the past decade, if they saw the “Dr. Jesus ‘Truth'”, would have felt “conviction” that Trump had “backslidden” or “turned from God”, upon seeing that image.
 
For Hegseth to then reveal the true depth of his Christianity by posting a fake bible verse, would also make this group of evangelicals again question the Godliness of Hegseth, and the entire Trump administration.
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 0:38 utc | 175

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Apr 17 2026 0:11 utc | 171
 
My guess is that it makes us even more reliant on imports, cripples further our own capacity to be energy sovereign, and fulfills the US mission to reduce the world to energy dependence on it.

Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 17 2026 0:48 utc | 177

UWDude: Thanks for the explanation, I now see what you meant. Of course I have no idea what Tehran is planning but they’re certainly aware of the economic (including purely financial) implications.

Posted by: Konami | Apr 17 2026 0:51 utc | 179

The current Australian ms media take on the Geelong refinery fire. It still doesn’t explain why the drone was present in the area and why it came from such a long distance away. 
 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-17/geelong-refinery-fire-visual-explainer/106571216?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other

Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Apr 17 2026 1:04 utc | 181

What I wrote in 2015 took months, and is far too long to hit all points.
 
I said one point of Russia would be to get NATO to sanction so much, it would come to 

“why do you keep hitting yourself?”
“why do you keep hitting yourself?”
“why do you keep hitting yourself?”

 
I’ve mentioned that before.
 
I also said Russia would, the whole time, have all their agents, who they know are being watched by the 5 eyes, to feed a poison drip* of “You are unbeatable, Russia is weak,  nobody can stand up to you.”   This creates critical complacency. 
 
 
*(I believe it is called “dye trace”, where you let your enemy think they have a secret tap, and then feed them minor truths, over the course of years, until time to activate, when a major lie is then relayed.  The technical term I cant recall atm)

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 1:05 utc | 183

Wouldn’t two tacos be more appropriate? 
Posted by: GeorgeWendell | Apr 17 2026 1:06 utc | 187
 
I describe what I see from the marines and sailors posting on the internet complaining about their meals xD but 2 unassembled soft shell tacos is also accurate 

Posted by: KillerDoll | Apr 17 2026 1:08 utc | 185

Palestine Conversation Series: Prof Assal Rad
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNFjbAXqSRA
 
“Palestine, Gaza, Iran and the region.”

Posted by: John Gilberts | Apr 17 2026 1:20 utc | 187

A Battleship Potemkin moment.
Posted by: Parso | Apr 17 2026 1:17 utc | 189
 
IIRC, the first ship Iran claimed to hit, day one, was a supply ship.
 
 
I would also bet dollars to moldy navy donuts, there was absolutely ZERO provisions discipline aboard the carriers regarding food, since
 
1) food is a reward system, and becomes more critical as such the longer a ship is at sea beyond its original deployment term.
2)  Americans are fat undisciplined slobs when it comes to food, and food waste.
 
3)  No rations orders were likely given in the days before the war, as a matter of normalcy bias, and likely also as a “decision” weak leaders make when given tough choices.    They think their tough choice means making the easy choice.  To further illustrate:
 
“Sir, shall we being rationing?”
 
“Ohh, this is a tough choice, hmmm… either start to ration an already low morale crew, in case the war lasts longer than a few days or one of our supply ships are damaged….  ……or assume** the war will be over quickly, and maintain the current critical objective, the low morale, which has been keeping me up at  night.   Hmm, tough choice.  Tough choice.  Yes, Well, likely the war will be quick, and none of our supply ships hit, and morale is the more pressing issue, I will make the tough choice not to ration.”
 
“Yes sir.”
 
 
By making the wrong choice, the choice was not a “tough choice”.  It would only have been a “tough choice” if the leader chose correctly.
 
 
 
 
**”ass out of u and me” as they like to say about that word.

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 1:30 utc | 189

Posted by: Sabiedriba | Apr 17 2026 1:25 utc | 191
 
Same demon, no matter the voice.   The mocking enhances the power of the sorcery.

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 1:33 utc | 191

Posted by Tom Pfotzer
 
@Persiflo, above.
 
The problem I have with the “US is trying to control the energy supply of the world” is that there’s too many leaks for them to effectively accomplish that. 
 
To get that job done, the US is going to have to control inter-Asian land routes (pipes and rail lines) and several maritime trade routes. 
 
Yes, the US can sink Russian, Iranian and Chinese ships on the high seas. But Russia, China and Iran can do the same, maybe better. That naval war doesn’t at all look like a slam-dunk for the US. The internal-to-Asia land routes are more vulnerable (several weak countries to meddle with in the Asian interior), but they’re also closer to Russia, China and Iran. Advantage the resistance-Axis, by my estimation.
 
So I don’t see how the US can get that job done short of regime change in Russia or Iran; I think there’s zero possibility that regime change can be effected in China.
 
So that leaves economic war of attrition. Who’s in better position to conduct that? Again, I say Resistance-Axis. If you dispute that assertion, I’ll lay out the reasoning.
 
That economic war of attrition is already in full swing, and as I pointed out above, the US has a lot of staying power. Mountains of money, choke-hold on the body politic, lots of current or latent mfg’g power, oil, and all the Americas to source materials from. It’ll be a while before all that falls apart. 
 
As others have stated, the game is to divide the world into Areas Of Influence; one will be the West, and thatt’s more accurately described as a Area of Extortion and gradual societal and economic devolution. 
 
What will the other areas be? That’s what BRICS is: the first major attempt to define what the “rest” – what the future looks like and acts like. 
 
So Persiflo – yes, energy is a major point of leverage, but I’m not seeing that the West can effectively control the lever. The West can damage the West by temporarily reducing the flow of energy into the world markets, but I don’t think a shipping blockade (several points of control)  can be sustained unless the West comes up with some major advances in naval warfare. Big Iron – destroyers and large attack subs aren’t going to last long as effective maritime weapons; we’re seeing that happen right now with respect to the destroyers and similar surface ships (and that’s a big, major change, right?). 
 
I expect the next gambit to be maritime interdiction via subs, and it’s my expectation that the Axis has anticipated that, and will have a good answer to it.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Apr 17 2026 1:38 utc | 193

IMO America has in their plan to keep Hormuz closed. 
The warships and soldiers are to join SA, Pakistan, UK and Australia soldiers and invade and occupy Yemen. SA took UAE out of east Yemen for this purpose. And The are large oil reserves in northern Yemen and an opportunity for America to take a toll from ships that use the Red Sea.
Oil by pipeline from the Gulf States to SA Red Sea.
I Expect Trump will again try the negotiation ruse and at the same time massive bombing of Iran.
Wild card maybe China who will not choose to support Pakistan.
Isreal can never achieve it’s goals and are useful as a distraction. But I think they have arole to also attack Yemen.
Another wild card is Iran’s air force. We don’t know if enough American radar has been eliminated to know how effective it could be.
 
If I am correct about these things it may bring China and Russia in and of course India and Turkey, all significant and powerful nations.
 

Posted by: Bingo | Apr 17 2026 1:42 utc | 195

To get that job done, the US is going to have to control inter-Asian land routes (pipes and rail lines) and several maritime trade routes.  
Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Apr 17 2026 1:38 utc | 197
 
Truck is 10x sail transport cost and 3x rail transport cost.  I read this once long ago and always kept the ratios in mind for rough transportation calculations.
 
I dont know how much it costs per barrel, but I know sailing oil at $40 bbl is still quite profitable.  Therefore, it would be akin to much better than $40 bbl to transport $120 bbl oil via rail, which is almost unlimited capacity in Russia.   Pipeline is of course, the cheapest, (cant remember the ration to truck), but there are not good Sino-Russian pipelines yet.
 
 

Posted by: UWDude | Apr 17 2026 1:50 utc | 197

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 16 2026 23:58 utc | 160
 
# Yes. To be protected by the US has now turned into a curse. The Gulf Princelings must be furious – South Korea and some in Japan must be reconsidering – and some rumbles on RF emerging in the EU as they are ‘terribly upset with Daddy’.
 
# When IRI went all-in I did not expect Empire to call due to IRI having a ‘strait’. Well, I could see it but US? I was initially thinking of an ordinary strait – as conflict emerged it morphs into a strait flush of princelings   …. and there goes what drives production … energy – the geopolitical consequences are tectonic – even more than I anticipated. Thus far, we owe a lot to The Spirit of Karbala.
 
I believe Keen and Hudson are correct – on 5 year winter – All on Zio/US [I’ll check out Jermy Ta.]

Posted by: Don Firineach | Apr 17 2026 2:05 utc | 199