|
Please Support Moon of Alabama
(This post is currently pinned to the top. Please scroll down for fresh content.)
Dear Readers,
once every while I have to ask for your help to keep Moon of Alabama going.
Many come here because they value my analyzes. Others are fond of MoA’s vivid, if overcrowded comment section. I am very proud to host and nurture both, to the best of my abilities.
But I also need to pay for food, rent and the other necessities of life.
This site is the full time effort of one person. There is no other income I can rely on.
While I live in somewhat better circumstances than Spitzweg’s Poor Poet, I am neither rich nor do I indulge in luxuries.
biggerEvery donation to this Poor Poet – be it $5, $50, $500 or more – is welcome and needed. A recurring contribution or sponsorship would be great. See below on how to do it.
Transaction costs are the smallest when you make a bank wire transfer or mail cash. Send email to MoonofA @ aol.com (remove the blanks) for the necessary details. (They are the same as before.) You can use other means like credit cards when you donate through the PayPal button below. This even without having a PayPal account. (The Moon of Alabama account is in Euro which currently stands at €1 ~ US $1.17 and US $1 ~ €0.85).
Thank you very much!
Bernhard aka b.
Trump And The Devil
President Donald Trump has for some time been in a public dispute with Pope Leo of the Catholic church.
Within the context of the quarrel Trump posted a picture of himself depicted as saint healer overseen by a devil.
And no – this isn’t a late April’s fool joke …
On February 4 2026, the X/Twitter account NickAdamsinUSA posted this AI slop picture of Trump as a saint healer.
biggerYesterday Trump himself posted a similar picture on his Truth Social account. It was reproduced on X/Twitter.
Cont. reading: Trump And The Devil
War On Iran: – Loser Tries Setting “Terms” – The Strange Idea Of Blockading Blockaders
The first round of talks between the U.S. and Iran has failed to achieve any progress.
The U.S. negotiators thoroughly misjudged their positions and tried to set terms (archived):
Mr. Vance said little about what took place during more than 21 hours of negotiations, suggesting he had handed the Iranians a take-it-or-leave-it proposal to forever terminate their nuclear program, and they left it.
“We’ve made very clear what our red lines are,” Mr. Vance told reporters, “what things we’re willing to accommodate them on.” He added, “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”
The U.S. has so far lost the war. None of its war aims has been achieved. Its attempts to steal Iran’s enriched Uranium ended with the biggest air force losses since the Vietnam War era. It is not in a position to set any terms:
In that respect, this negotiation appears to have differed little from the one that ended in deadlock in Geneva in late February, …
Mr. Trump’s chief leverage now comes in his ability to threaten to resume major combat operations. After all, the fragile two-week cease-fire ends on April 21. But while the threat of resuming combat operations may be invoked in coming days, it not a particularly viable political choice for Mr. Trump — and the Iranians know it.
Mr. Trump declared the cease-fire last week in large part to stem the pain from the loss of 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies, which was sending the price of gasoline soaring, creating shortages of fertilizer and, among other critical supplies, helium for the production of semiconductors. Markets rose on the prospect of an agreement, even an incomplete or unsatisfactory one. Should the war resume, the markets would likely decline, the shortages would worsen and inflation — already up to 3.3 percent — would almost inevitably rise.
And that leaves the most urgent issue: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
After the end of the negotiations a tweet by Donald Trump pointed to a piece which asserts that his best next move to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is to blockade Iran:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Loser Tries Setting “Terms” – The Strange Idea Of Blockading Blockaders
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-074
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
—It is costing a lot of time, and money, to run Moon of Alabama. Please consider to contribute.
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-073
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
Please check your wallet. If there’s a spare dime or so left please consider to donate it.
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-073
War On Iran: – Negotiators To Become Scapegoats For U.S. Defeat
The U.S. has threatened Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz if it wanted a ceasefire. Iran was not interested and did not agree with it. A ceasefire, it said, would require the U.S. to acknowledge that Iran stays in control of the Strait.
The Trump administration, under immense pressure due to the economic consequences of the Strait closure, acquiesced. But it needed an excuse to do so to calm the hardliners in its own camp. It thus put out a story that gave some reason to keep the Strait closed.
Iran Unable to Find Mines in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Says (archived) – NY Times
Iran has been unable to open the Strait of Hormuz to more shipping traffic because it cannot locate all of the mines it laid in the waterway and lacks the capability to remove them, according to U.S. officials.
The development is one reason Iran has not been able to quickly comply with the Trump administration’s admonitions to let more traffic pass through the strait. It is also potentially a complicating factor as Iranian negotiators and a U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance meet in Pakistan this weekend for peace talks.
Iran used small boats to mine the strait last month, soon after the United States and Israel began their war against the country. The mines, plus the threat of Iranian drone and missile attacks, slowed the number of oil tankers and other vessels passing through the strait to a trickle, driving up energy prices and providing Iran with its best leverage in the war.
Iran left a path through the strait open, allowing ships that pay a toll to pass through.
This is one of the most laughable stories I have read for some time.
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Negotiators To Become Scapegoats For U.S. Defeat
War On Iran: – Selected Writings And Reports
Selected writings of interest on the War on Iran:
A long-read on how Netanyahoo pushed Trump, against all other advice, into launching the war:
How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran (archived) – NY Times
In a series of Situation Room meetings, President Trump weighed his instincts against the deep concerns of his vice president and a pessimistic intelligence assessment. Here’s the inside story of how he made the fateful decision.
Mr. Netanyahu delivered his presentation in a confident monotone. It seemed to land well with the most important person in the room, the American president.
Sounds good to me, Mr. Trump told the prime minister. To Mr. Netanyahu, this signaled a likely green light for a joint U.S.-Israeli operation.
—The relation continues. After Trump had agreed that the ceasefire would include Lebanon and Iraq, Netanyahoo turned him around:
Lebanon emerges as potential spoiler to Iran deal – CBSnews
Multiple diplomatic sources told CBS News that President Trump had been told that the ceasefire announced Thursday would apply to the Middle East region, and he agreed that included Lebanon. Mediators believed the ceasefire to include Lebanon, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that it did. Araghchi also said it was included.
On the day of the ceasefire, a White House official told CBS News that Israel had also agreed with the terms of the deal that Pakistan had helped to broker.
However, the U.S. position shifted following a phone call between Netanyahu and Mr. Trump. Two sources familiar with the matter told CBS News that the changing U.S. positions, and the disjointed remnant of the regime in Iran, are making the diplomacy highly complex.
—The result of Netanyahoo’s push for war:
Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser (archived) – Economist
There is a reason he wants an exit from Iran
The war has shown that the value of America’s might is easy to overestimate. Its factories cannot resupply its armed forces fast enough, whereas Iran fought an asymmetric war with limited weapons. Too much testosterone leads to wretched judgments that confuse lethality with winning. Overwhelming firepower without a strategy saps American strength.
—On the psychology of real estate developers like Witkoff, Kushner and Trump and how it fails them at war:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Selected Writings And Reports
War On Iran: – Ceasefire Sabotage
The Trump administration’s self-congratulations for the ceasefire with Iran immediately fell apart after Israel bombed Lebanon and killed more than 250 people.
This was a breach of the ceasefire agreement which Pakistan had arranged and announced and which had included Lebanon and other areas of the conflict.
The Trump administration had been begging for a ceasefire for several days. It had been involved (archived) in formulating the message the Pakistani Prime Minister had issued. Trump himself had endorsed the 10-point condition sheet the Iranians had proposed by calling it “a workable basis on which to negotiate”.
With knowledge of the imminent ceasefire members of the Trump administration had (again) waged bets on commodities and won large amounts of money.
But just a few hours after the Israeli attack the Trump administration repudiated two central points of the ceasefire. Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire, it suddenly claimed, and Iran’s 10 point sheet had been “thrown into the trash” even before Trump had endorsed it.
Iran reacted by immediately closing the Strait of Hormuz (archived) for good. Only four ships, all coming from Iranian ports, have passed during the last 24 hours.
The statement by Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian is plain:
The repeated aggression by the Zionist entity against Lebanon is a flagrant violation of the initial ceasefire agreement and a dangerous indicator of deceit and lack of commitment to potential accords. The continuation of these aggressions will render negotiations meaningless; our hands will remain on the trigger, and Iran will never abandon its Lebanese brothers and sisters.
While there is currently no bombing of Iran ongoing, and no new launching of Iranian drones and missiles on USraeli targets, the quietness is unlikely to hold.
Further talks, supposed on happen on Saturday in Pakistan, are in doubt.
I expect the war to reignite before they take place.
—Moon of Alabama is asking for donations. Please consider to contribute.
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-072
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
—Moon of Alabama is asking for donations. Please consider to contribute.
Open (Not Ukraine or Iran) Thread 2026-071
News & views not related to the wars in Ukraine and Iran …
—Moon of Alabama is asking for donations. Please consider to contribute.
War On Iran: – April Ceasefire – A Tick Tock Of Statements And Comments
Trump has chickened out from his threat of committing a genocide in Iran by agreeing to a ceasefire based on Iran’s 10 point declaration.
The war isn’t over.
Israel will do its best to sabotage the ceasefire by all means.
If Trump really wants to stop losing the war he had started on advice of Netanyahoo (archived) he will have to throw him under a bus.
The Secretary for War Crimes Pete Hegseth and others who had urged for the war will be made scapegoats for this defeat.
An attempt to tick-tock what happened:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – April Ceasefire – A Tick Tock Of Statements And Comments
War On Iran: – Trump Threatens Genocide – More Tit-for-tat Bombing
As the world was waiting for President Donald Trump to TACO from his threat to destroy Iran he upped his madman strategy by threatening to genocide its people:
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
(TS: 07 Apr 08:06 ET)
I find it no longer useful to attempt any interpretation of such threats. They are likely a reaction to the failed Isfahan operation.
After that above threat was posted Iran froze all diplomatic and indirect communication channels with the U.S.
Meanwhile the war continues at heightened intensity.
Yesterday Israel again attacked Iran’s largest industrial oil and gas installation in the South Pars field.
Retribution came fast. Israeli installations at Neot Hovav in the Negev desert were attacked. Saudi Arabia’s Al Jubail industrial area is on fire as are at least three major oil/gas sites in the Emirates.
This morning the U.S. (again) struck some 50 targets on Kharg Island in what I consider a preparation for an imminent invasion likely to follow this night.
Israel hit ten Iranian railway stations around Tehran to isolate the city.
The “Jewish State” also struck the Rafie Nia synagogue in Tehran. It seems to have been an intentional target.
Iran has published a quite sensible 10-point plan to end the war:
Iran’s 10-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz
7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship
8. Iran would split these fees with Oman
9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz
10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations
Iran had previously asked for full U.S. reparation payments for the damage the war has caused. To instead insist on using Hormuz passage funds is a sensible retreat from a hardline position.
With Iranian consent more ships are quietly passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Whatever might happen Iran wont give up on not closing but controlling Hormuz for very good reasons.
The U.S. deploys additional HIMARS artillery to the Middle East.
War On Iran: – Failed Special Operation – Threat Escalation – Trump’s Victory Timeline
The U.S. government claims that it had launched a large rescue mission near Isfahan, Iran, to retrieve the weapon officer of an F-15 airplane which was downed while it was bombing that country.
When I read the first version of that story I replied:
Moon of Alabama @MoonofA – 14:28 UTC · Apr 5, 2026
Bridges on sale …
Jennifer Griffin @JenGriffinFNC · Apr 5
According to a senior administration official:
Prior to locating the WSO (Weapons System Officer) and the US military’s daring rescue, the CIA first launched a deception campaign spreading word inside Iran that U.S. forces had already found him and were moving him on the ground …
The U.S. may have found and retrieved the F-15 officer. But that will have been tens of miles from the place near Isfahan where it lost two HC-130 transport planes and four MH-6 special force helicopters. That special force operation was most likely an attempt to steal enriched Uranian known to be hidden under a mountain somewhere around Isfahan. Such an operation was pre-viewed on April 1 by the Washington Post:
Risky commando plan to seize Iran’s uranium came at Trump’s request (archived)
It seems that the attempt ran into an ambush like situation and had to evacuate.
For details see how Will Schryver and Armchair Warlord are connecting the dots. Iranian analysts agree with their take.
In other news Trump is using foul language to threaten Iran with further war crimes. Iran promises adequate retaliation. The markets react to discipline U.S. action. Another TACO is likely to happen.
Added for later reference: Trump’s “victory” claims:Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Failed Special Operation – Threat Escalation – Trump’s Victory Timeline
Iran Open Thread 2026-070
News & views related to the war in Iran …
Ukraine Open Thread 2026-069
News & views related to the war in Ukraine …
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-068
Last week’s posts on Moon of Alabama:
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2026-068
Happy Easter (Walk)
It’s spring, the darkness has vanished and this is my favored holiday.
Happy Easter
biggerEach Easter Sunday my dad recited this poem for us. It is from Johann Wolfgang von Goethe’s Faust.
In this scene Dr. Faust and his student Wagner take an Easter Walk (Charles T. Brooks’ translation, original version):
Cont. reading: Happy Easter (Walk)
Meta: On MoA Moderation
MoA commentator Karlof seems to be pi**ed because some comment he tried to post here did not appear. As he writes at his own blog:
I provided what follows in a comment made to the current Iran thread at Moon of Alabama, but the site owner trashed it for some unknown, unexplained reason despite its obvious vital importance to understanding the events surrounding this war. What follows are a portion of Lavrov’s opening remarks that relate to the topic followed by an excerpt from the first Q&A that’s then followed by the most important question posed:
[1684 words long quote from Lavrov’s press conference]
The blog software Moon of Alabama is running on has, like others, functionalities which somewhat protect against being overwhelmed by spam comments. The system will filter comments following certain criteria into three buckets.
Most of the comments entered at MoA will be published without further review.
– Spam:
Comments which come from known spam addresses or include advertisement for certain products will be deleted automatically. Each day there are some 50 to 100 “Buy Viagra” or similar comments that fall under this criteria. This part of the system is astonishing reliable. That’s why I rarely review the comments which are being filtered at this stage. They simply vanish.
– Moderation:
Comments which:
- exceed a certain length
- include more than 5 links
- include certain swearwords
- come from certain IP addresses
will be withheld from immediate publishing for review by the moderator. Karlof’s comment, which included a lengthy Lavrov quote, was caught by this filter.
– Manual review:
Cont. reading: Meta: On MoA Moderation
War On Iran: – Not ‘Getting’ Iran – War Delusions – Losing The Status Of Superpower
Trump’s speech on Wednesday night did not offer anything new. But taken together with his threats to bomb Iran back to stone age, points to the further escalation of the war.
Trump and some around him still do not ‘get’ Iran. They never in their own life held any principle they would not deviated from if money was to be made. Iran, in contrast, does have principles that are not up for sale. It is beyond Trump’s comprehension that such exit:
In a phone interview the next morning [Apr 2], Trump told TIME that Iran was eager to make a deal to end the fighting. ‘Why wouldn’t they call? We just blew up their three big bridges last night,” the President says. “They’re getting decimated. They say Trump is not negotiating with Iran. I mean, it’s sort of an easy negotiation.”
Iran does not work like that. It is not ruled by sell-outs.
Trump and those who support him are still deeply delusional about their real power. Consider the Washington Post‘s opinion writer Marc Thiessen who insists (archived) that the U.S. has the military means to win the war within a few weeks:
Rather than waiting for Iran to agree to the conditions he has put on the table, [Trump] can simply impose the peace terms he has set unilaterally.
Here’s how to do so in five steps:
1. Complete all remaining military tasks. Trump said the war will “continue until our objectives are fully achieved.” So which tasks remain? Seize or destroy Iran’s fissile material so the regime cannot easily restart its nuclear program (or give what Trump calls its “nuclear dust” to terrorists for a dirty bomb). Take out all the remaining targets on the military’s list. Implement the innovative plan that sources tell me Centcom Commander Adm. Brad Cooper has prepared to open the Strait of Hormuz by force, and then hand the mission over to a multinational armada made up of countries who receive oil from the strait, which must take responsibility for keeping it open. Or, alternatively, the United States can charge a substantial “escort fee” for each ship passing through the strait, which would be waived for countries participating in the mission. And then, finally, either take control of Kharg Island, by seizing or blockading this linchpin of Iran’s energy export sector, or destroy it to cripple Iran’s ability to fund terrorist proxies and a military rebuild.
If the U.S. completes these tasks, it will have a stranglehold over Iran, and the regime will never again be able to hold the world’s economy hostage. U.S. military commanders believe that these objectives can be achieved in the next two to three weeks, …
Trump, probably after reading Thiessen’s pamphlet, seems to agree with this:
Cont. reading: War On Iran: – Not ‘Getting’ Iran – War Delusions – Losing The Status Of Superpower
Iran Open Thread 2026-067
News & views related to the war in Iran …
|
