The losses the U.S. military currently incurs in its war on Iran continue to accumulate.
ABC News confirms that Iran has managed to destroy at least 10 radar installation in the Middle East. Most of these were U.S. owned while the rest were supplied to U.S. allies. The loss of early warning radar lets more Iranian missile slip through the U.S. missile defense curtain. It will cause more losses in other installations especially in Israel.
The U.S. Central Command confirmed yesterday that Iranian air defenses managed to hit at least one of its F-35 ‘stealth’ fighter jets. Reportedly the pilot was injured and the plane made a ‘hard landing’ – which likely means that the pilot ejected before the jet crashed down.
This should finally destroy the Lockheed marketing nonsense claim of ‘invisibility’ of its war planes. It also destroys the myth that Iran has lost control over its airspace and that the U.S. has achieve air superiority. In consequence the U.S. will have to continue to use expensive, and exceedingly rare, stand-off weapons to hit targets within Iran instead of doing much cheaper gravity bombing.
The U.S. aircraft carrier Ford had to leave the Middle East for repairs after a ‘laundry fire’ destroyed some 600 berth on board. The Ford carrier was already notorious for its constantly clogged toilets. I strongly suspect that it will have to go back to the U.S. for a long period of overhaul.
The second carrier in the region has been withdrawn to the southern Arab Sea for fear of being attacked by Iranian forces. The long distance from Iran will necessitates the time consuming aerial fueling of its plane when they are launched for sorties against that country.
At least three F-15 fighter jets have been destroyed by alleged ‘friendly fire’ near Kuwait.
Of the 100 MQ-9 Reaper drones the U.S. military had acquired some 10 have been lost in recent reconnaissance missions over Iran.
Some five U.S. KC-135 refueling aircraft were hit during an Iranian strike on Saudi Arabia. An additional one was lost and another damaged during an in-air collision.
All the above isn’t ‘much’ when one considers the total size of U.S. forces but we are only in day 21 of this war and the losses will continue to accumulate.
An Amphibious Readiness Group of three ships with some 2,200 marines on board has been ordered from Japan to the Middle East. It will take at least a week before it will reach its destination. Another ARG is expected to soon leave San Diego to make its way to the Middle East. It will take three weeks before it can be there.
Each ARG, (also known as Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)) has an 800 men strong ground force on board that can be used for storming a beach, taking a landing strip or some other small scale command missions. The rest of the soldiers on board are supply and support forces. An MEU can support itself for only a week or so before it needs to be relieved by regular forces. Those regular forces are still missing. This makes it likely that the ARGs will do little.
There are speculations in the media that the U.S. will use the ARGs to invade and occupy Kharg island in the northern Persian Gulf region from where Iranian oil is put on ships for export. But to even reach Kharg the ARGs would have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in what would be a very high risk endeavor. Then comes taking Kharg which in itself is a suicide mission.
There are a handful of Iranian islands within the Strait of Hormuz which are better candidates for a Marine landing. But all of these are, like Kharg, within the reach of Iranian artillery, missiles and drones. To occupy them will require sustained campaigns and the will to suffer extensive losses.
There is also a lot of noise about a U.S. mission to reopen the Strait for Hormuz by providing Navy protection for civilian shipping. But the forces to do that are simply not there (yet). It would need a dozen destroyers plus mine sweepers plus aerial support to allow for such convoy protection missions. At least two of the three U.S. minesweepers which should be in the Middle East are currently in Malaysia. Most of twenty or so available destroyers are currently on carrier protection missions. It will need many weeks, if not months, before the necessary forces can be assembled and put into place.
Yet the administration still has not recognized that it has managed to wedge itself into a long war. Its attempts to lower oil prices is demonstrating that it is still trying to fight windmills.
Under normal circumstances the world consumes about 100 million barrels of crude oil per day. Due to the blockade of the Strait some 15 million of that is currently missing. The first reaction of the markets to such a supply shock is to draw down existing stocks and reserves.
The U.S. has lifted sanctions on Russian oil stored at sea and considers to do the same for some 140 million barrels of floating Iranian reserves. But with 15 million barrels missing per day such one time releases will only supply enough relief for another week or so. The release of a few 100 million barrels from international Strategic Petroleum Reserves will also have little effect. Decisive here is the flow rate, i.e. how much of it can be pumped out and released per day. The flow rate from U.S. salt cavern reserve storages is some 1.2 million barrels per day. The total global reserve flow rate is some 2 million barrels per day. With 15 million barrels per day missing any reserve release will have only minor effects.
The future market oil prices are still hovering around $100 bbl. The real product market price already exceeds $150 bbl. Saudi Arabia is forecasting $180 bbl for early April. The price will have reached $200 bbl by the mid of next month.
Natural gas and LPG prices will see an even steeper rise as 20% of the total capacity is now missing. There are also a number of co-products that come with oil and gas exploration. Nearly half of the global Helium supply, needed for chip production, is missing. Sulfur has become rare. Urea and other fertilizers are now way more expensive. Supplies for specialties like jet-fuels and Nafta, needed for chemical production, are vanishing.
Demand destruction follows supply destruction. If there is less jet-fuel available air-travel will become more expensive and people will book less flights. That may not hurt many. But if there are less fertilizers available to produce food people will start to go hungry. Hunger creates social clashes and revolts.
People may already complain about the prices at the gas pump but we are still far from experiencing the real problems this war will create.
I expect these attempts to intensify until at least some of the Gulf state will take the suicidal step to fight Iran with their own means. That may then become the moment where the U.S. retreats from active participation in the conflict to limit itself to deliver expensive weapon supplies. This is what the Trump administration has done in Ukraine and there are good reasons for it to repeat that scheme in other regions.
