When President trump TACOed out from his threat to bomb Iran’s infrastructure he asserted that there had been “good and productive conversations” with Iran. I suspected that there had been no talks at all with Iran.
This turned out to be correct. There had only been a third party which had delivered a U.S. request for talks:
Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, has emerged as the key interlocutor between the United States and Iran, with Egypt and Turkey encouraging the Iranians to engage constructively, the officials added. Field Marshal Munir is believed to maintain close ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, putting him in a position to pass messages between the warring sides, they said.
He recently reached out to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a former Revolutionary Guards commander, proposing that Pakistan host talks between Iran and the United States, said an Iranian official and a Pakistani official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive communications.
According to Israeli media the U.S. administration conveyed 15 conditions to Iran as its terms for ending the current war. The conditions repeat the demands the U.S. made before the war started – nothing nuclear, no missiles, no proxies – and in return offer the relief of only some of the sanctions imposed on Iran:
12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
What about U.S. imposed sanctions? The paper does not mentioned them …
This is not an offer but a demand to surrender. Iran has of course rejected these and repeated its own conditions for ending the war:
- A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy.
- The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that the war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic.
- Guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations.
- The conclusion of the war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved throughout the region
- Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is and will remain Iran’s natural and legal right, and it constitutes a guarantee for the implementation of the other party’s commitments, and must be recognized.
“You’ve seen Asia absolutely fighting for every barrel there is in the world,” said Amrita Sen, founder of consulting firm Energy Aspects. She said Brent prices will eventually catch up with the Middle Eastern crudes changing hands at over $150 a barrel if Hormuz stays shut.
The U.S. and Israel continue their bombing campaign on Iran. Some 80,000 civilian structures in Iran have been destroyed or damaged. According to Iran’s health ministry 190 medical centers have been hit and 12 hospitals were put out of service.
Meanwhile Iran and Hizbullah continue to launch missiles against Israeli military and economic targets. The Washington Post finds that Israel’s missile defense is leaking (archived). Iran is firing less missiles but is hitting more targets:
Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said analysis of open-source strike data such as videos, images and announcements seemed to show a sharp increase in how effective those attacks have been after about March 10 — with as many as a quarter of missiles getting through. She cautioned that the picture could change as better information became available.
“A degraded Iran firing fewer and better aimed missiles and drones at carefully selected, fixed targets is getting more effective at imposing costs,” Grieco said. “In terms of how many are getting through, the trajectory is moving in the wrong direction.”
This is likely caused by the fact that it Israel and the U.S. are running out of air-defense missiles.
- Military briefing: how a US assault on Kharg Island could unfold (archived) – FT
- What a battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would look like (archived) – Economist
- Why It’s So Hard to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz (archived) – NY Times
- The Battle of Gallipoli’s Sobering Lessons for the Strait of Hormuz – U.S. Naval Institute
The number of dead in the Anbar strike by Coalition is not fully confirmed yet. At least 4 commanders killed.
The PMF is an official part of the Iraqi army. The attack is likely to lead to the final expulsion of all U.S. forces from Iraq:
The Iraqi government authorised the Iraqi security forces Hash al-Shaabi and the Army to respond against any attack and defend itself against the aggression Iraq is suffering from. Dozens of drones and US-Israeli jets are attacking Hashd al-Shaabi HQ in various parts of Iraq causing casualties.
The U.S. base in Erbil, in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, is the last one holding out. It will now be removed.
Meanwhile Israeli forces continue their attacks on Lebanon. Their aim is to occupy and annex all of south Lebanon up to the Litani river. Their advances are slow as Hizbullah fighters are there and resist.