Yesterday, just minutes before President Trump’s most recent TACO, insiders placed bets on rising stocks and lower oil prices. They made a killing:
Traders placed $580mn in oil bets ahead of Donald Trump’s social media post on Iran talks (archived) – FT
Traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump’s post touting “productive” talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling and ignited volatility in other assets.
Roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands between 6.49am and 6.50am New York time on Monday, just a quarter of an hour ahead of the US president’s post on Truth Social that there had in recent days been “productive conversations” with Tehran to end the war in Iran. The notional value of those trades was $580mn, according to FT calculations based on Bloomberg data.
Trading volumes for Brent and WTI leapt at the same time, 27 seconds before 6.50am. Futures tracking the S&P 500 share index jumped in price moments after the oil trade, with volumes also rising significantly during that timeframe.
It was not known whether one entity or several entities were behind Monday’s trades.
Trump’s next threat to Iran – re-open the Strait of Hormuz to traffic or else – will most likely come on Friday, after the markets have close. It would not be beyond Trump to again play this week’s game and to offer another TACO shortly before next Monday’s opening.
In between the conflict continues. The U.S. continues to bomb Iran. As does Israel. Barrages of Iranian missile continue to strike the Zionist entity. There are vague reports that energy infrastructure in Iran has been hit. If that has indeed happened expect Iran to hit back at infrastructure in Arab Gulf region.
Philippines Declares National Emergency Over High Fuel Prices (archived) – NY Times
Earlier on Tuesday, the Philippines’ Department of Energy said it had enough gasoline in reserve to last 53 days, enough diesel for 46 days and enough jet fuel for about 39 days. Diesel prices have doubled since the war began, surpassing 120 pesos, or $2, per liter.
Many government offices have switched to a four-day workweek to save energy, and Mr. Marcos has called on the public to car pool. The government has also been handing out 5,000 pesos each to tens of thousands of autorickshaw and jeepney drivers around Manila who are suffering from the higher prices.
Mr. Marcos is under intense pressure to deal with the situation. A coalition of transportation workers has called for mass protests around Manila, the capital, on Thursday and Friday about the price spike and what they consider inadequate measures by the government. On Tuesday, the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a major newspaper, published a column with the headline, “Nation on brink: This oil crisis may destroy everything we built.”
Saudi Prince Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls – NY Times
Gulf States Edge Toward Joining Fight Against Iran (archived) – WSJ
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates get tougher on basing and finances
The U.S. would love to see the Arabs to join the fight. They would have to buy lots of expensive weapons and take the damage. This while the U.S. could skip out of the conflict (see Ukraine).
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are sitting in glass-houses. Their existences depends on a few hard to defend desalination plants, electricity generation facilities and energy export outlets. They are in range of short range missiles of which Iran has plenty. There are also the Houthi… . If the Arab states were to actively join the bombing of Iran it would be their end.
Pentagon Officials Weigh Deployment of Airborne Troops for Iran War (archived) – NY Times
Given the circumstances these are paltry forces usable only for very limited purposes. But it may well be the advance party of a much larger force that will take months to build.
There are still talks about taking Iran’s Kharg island, the main export station for Iranian oil. I did explain two weeks ago why that is no option. There are also three small islands in the middle of the Strait, Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb, which are held by Iran but claimed by the Emirates:
Due to the depth of sea, oil tankers and big ships have to pass between Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs, which makes these islands some of the most strategic points in the Persian Gulf.
These islands could be taken but, despite the above Wikipedia claim, their strategic value in this conflict is limited. Iranian reconnaissance drones, long range radar and anti-ship missiles have eroded their roles as interdiction stations. Taking those islands may have some PR value. But it would not lift the blockade of the Strait and the cost of holding them would soon become prohibitive.
Another potential target for an incursion into Iran could be its south-eastern city of Chabahar. It has a deep sea port and would be a good staring point for a larger invasion force. But Chabahar, with some 100,000 inhabitants, is a too big city to take with a mere 5,000 strong raiding force. Chabahar borders the Baluchistan region of Pakistan which makes any incursion of it politically complicate.
