Saudi Arabia is trying to avoid damage from the war on Iran by diverting oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea through its East-West pipeline. This scheme however will fail at least as long as it takes part in that war.
During the 1980s the rulers of Saudi Arabia feared that another war between Iran and Iraq would close the Strait of Hormuz. In normal times Saudi Arabia would export between 6 to 8 million barrels of crude oil per day through its Persian Gulf side harbors. The closure of the Strait would have threatened all oil export capabilities for Saudi crude.
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The East-West pipeline, also known as Petroline, ends at the Read Sea harbor city of Yanbu where several refineries convert a share of the crude to products that are locally used. The crude oil export capacity of Yanbu is estimated to be between 3 to 5 million barrels per day.
Due to the recent USraeli war on Iran the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Saudi Arabia immediately reacted by diverting crude from its eastern ports through the East-West pipeline towards Yanbu.
According to Windward:
Saudi Arabia has reportedly curtailed approximately 2.0–2.5 million barrels per day of offshore production, including output from the Safaniya, Marjan, Zuluf, and Abu Safa fields, representing roughly 20% of national output.
Saudi Arabia has pivoted onshore Arab Light volumes onto the 7 million b/d Petroline, pushing Yanbu exports to approximately 2.47 million b/d, a 330% increase compared with pre-crisis levels.
That shift is now visible in fleet behavior. Twenty-seven VLCCs are currently heading toward Yanbu, compared with 18 vessels for Jeddah and three each for Jizan, Duba, and Rabigh. This concentration indicates that Yanbu is now serving as the primary outlet for Petroline-delivered crude and the central node of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export workaround.
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Notice the (blue) Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) on the map coming from Asia, passing through the Arabian Sea, along the Gulf of Aden, through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait passage and into the Red Sea. This is a one-way road as VLCCs are too big to pass through the Suez Canal at the north-west (upper left) corner of the map. These ships will have to come back along the same route that takes them to Yanbu.
The Saudi rulers have done well with the diversion of oil from the eastern to the western export facilities. This move would have been a winning one if the closure of Hormuz had been caused by a war between Iran and Iraq.
This war however was launched by the U.S. and Israel and, as a U.S. vassal, Saudi Arabia is part of it. Its airports and air-space are used for fueling U.S. airplanes which are bombing Iran. Last night five U.S. Air Force refueling planes were struck and damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia.
Iran has allies which have helped it to widen the war to the region. Shia militia in Iraq have attacked local U.S. bases. Hizbullah in Lebanon is diverting Israeli forces by dragging them into a local fight. Then there Ansar Islam, aka the Houthi, in Yemen which says it is ready to soon join the struggle on the side of Iran:
Senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti says the group has decided to stand militarily with Iran and will announce “Hour Zero” (start of action) at the appropriate time.
Between 2015 and 2022 the Saudis fought, and lost, a war against the Houthi of Yemen. During that war, in May 2019, the Saudi East-West pipeline took hits:
The Houthis, who are at war with Saudi Arabia, said earlier Tuesday they launched seven drones targeting vital Saudi installations, without elaborating. They later claimed responsibility for the pipeline attack in comments broadcast by Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Sari.
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The Saudis did not immediately assign blame for the drone assaults, which targeted two oil pumping stations west of the capital supplying the pipeline that runs from the east of Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu Port on its western coast.
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Saudi Aramco, the government-controlled oil company, said that as a precaution, it temporarily shut down the East-West Pipeline and contained a fire, which caused minor damage to one pumping station.
In October 2023, out of solidarity with people of Gaza who were under attack by Israel, the Houthi closed the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea for all U.S./Israel aligned traffic. The U.S. Navy tried for several months to reopen the Red Sea but failed. In October 2025, after a ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthi did lift their Red Sea blockade.
Now U.S. President Donald Trump is dreaming of Chinese war ships to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This as Iran is planing, with the help of the Houthi, to also close Bab el-Mandeb and to shut down Red Sea traffic:
Iranian decision makers indicate that the Americans appear to be failing to understand that, for Iran, this is an existential war. In such a context, nothing is considered too precious to sacrifice.
With the approval of the new leader, Sayyed Mojataba Khamenei, it was agreed that if the US strikes or lands on any Iranian installations, Tehran is prepared to escalate dramatically.
Possible approved responses include:
1. Closure of Bab el Mandeb and attacks on Red Sea ports exporting oil, expanding the war to a vital global shipping route.
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The Saudi move to divert crude oil export from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via the East-West pipeline was smart and timely. But it will not help as long as the Saudis are part of the USraeli side in the war on Iran.
The East-West pipeline has already been proven to be vulnerable to drone attacks launched from Iran or the Houthi controlled parts of Yemen. The Saudi Red Sea export outlet in Yanbu will be cut off from most global traffic when the Houthi decide to again close the Red Sea and to stop traffic through Bab el Mandeb.
Saudi export will then be restricted to Suez-sized tankers which can reach Yanbu through the canal without passing Yemen. Any VLCC currently moving into the Read Sea to load in Yanbu will be effectively trapped.