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War On Iran: The Saudis’ Alternative Crude Export Outlet Is Also A Trap
Saudi Arabia is trying to avoid damage from the war on Iran by diverting oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea through its East-West pipeline. This scheme however will fail at least as long as it takes part in that war.
During the 1980s the rulers of Saudi Arabia feared that another war between Iran and Iraq would close the Strait of Hormuz. In normal times Saudi Arabia would export between 6 to 8 million barrels of crude oil per day through its Persian Gulf side harbors. The closure of the Strait would have threatened all oil export capabilities for Saudi crude.
biggerA pipeline system was built to allow for the divergence of crude from the Saudi east coast in the Persian Gulf to its west coast at the Red Sea. The system consisted of two strings – one for crude, the other for natural gas liquids. The capacity of the pipeline is about 5 million barrels per day for crude plus an additional 2 million barrels if the natural gas pipeline is converted to crude and used too.
The East-West pipeline, also known as Petroline, ends at the Read Sea harbor city of Yanbu where several refineries convert a share of the crude to products that are locally used. The crude oil export capacity of Yanbu is estimated to be between 3 to 5 million barrels per day.
Due to the recent USraeli war on Iran the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Saudi Arabia immediately reacted by diverting crude from its eastern ports through the East-West pipeline towards Yanbu.
According to Windward:
Saudi Arabia has reportedly curtailed approximately 2.0–2.5 million barrels per day of offshore production, including output from the Safaniya, Marjan, Zuluf, and Abu Safa fields, representing roughly 20% of national output.
Saudi Arabia has pivoted onshore Arab Light volumes onto the 7 million b/d Petroline, pushing Yanbu exports to approximately 2.47 million b/d, a 330% increase compared with pre-crisis levels.
That shift is now visible in fleet behavior. Twenty-seven VLCCs are currently heading toward Yanbu, compared with 18 vessels for Jeddah and three each for Jizan, Duba, and Rabigh. This concentration indicates that Yanbu is now serving as the primary outlet for Petroline-delivered crude and the central node of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export workaround.
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Notice the (blue) Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) on the map coming from Asia, passing through the Arabian Sea, along the Gulf of Aden, through the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait passage and into the Red Sea. This is a one-way road as VLCCs are too big to pass through the Suez Canal at the north-west (upper left) corner of the map. These ships will have to come back along the same route that takes them to Yanbu.
The Saudi rulers have done well with the diversion of oil from the eastern to the western export facilities. This move would have been a winning one if the closure of Hormuz had been caused by a war between Iran and Iraq.
This war however was launched by the U.S. and Israel and, as a U.S. vassal, Saudi Arabia is part of it. Its airports and air-space are used for fueling U.S. airplanes which are bombing Iran. Last night five U.S. Air Force refueling planes were struck and damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia.
Iran has allies which have helped it to widen the war to the region. Shia militia in Iraq have attacked local U.S. bases. Hizbullah in Lebanon is diverting Israeli forces by dragging them into a local fight. Then there Ansar Islam, aka the Houthi, in Yemen which says it is ready to soon join the struggle on the side of Iran:
Senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti says the group has decided to stand militarily with Iran and will announce “Hour Zero” (start of action) at the appropriate time.
Between 2015 and 2022 the Saudis fought, and lost, a war against the Houthi of Yemen. During that war, in May 2019, the Saudi East-West pipeline took hits:
The Houthis, who are at war with Saudi Arabia, said earlier Tuesday they launched seven drones targeting vital Saudi installations, without elaborating. They later claimed responsibility for the pipeline attack in comments broadcast by Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Sari.
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The Saudis did not immediately assign blame for the drone assaults, which targeted two oil pumping stations west of the capital supplying the pipeline that runs from the east of Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu Port on its western coast.
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Saudi Aramco, the government-controlled oil company, said that as a precaution, it temporarily shut down the East-West Pipeline and contained a fire, which caused minor damage to one pumping station.
In October 2023, out of solidarity with people of Gaza who were under attack by Israel, the Houthi closed the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea for all U.S./Israel aligned traffic. The U.S. Navy tried for several months to reopen the Red Sea but failed. In October 2025, after a ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthi did lift their Red Sea blockade.
Now U.S. President Donald Trump is dreaming of Chinese war ships to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This as Iran is planing, with the help of the Houthi, to also close Bab el-Mandeb and to shut down Red Sea traffic:
Iranian decision makers indicate that the Americans appear to be failing to understand that, for Iran, this is an existential war. In such a context, nothing is considered too precious to sacrifice.
With the approval of the new leader, Sayyed Mojataba Khamenei, it was agreed that if the US strikes or lands on any Iranian installations, Tehran is prepared to escalate dramatically.
Possible approved responses include:
1. Closure of Bab el Mandeb and attacks on Red Sea ports exporting oil, expanding the war to a vital global shipping route.
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The Saudi move to divert crude oil export from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea via the East-West pipeline was smart and timely. But it will not help as long as the Saudis are part of the USraeli side in the war on Iran.
The East-West pipeline has already been proven to be vulnerable to drone attacks launched from Iran or the Houthi controlled parts of Yemen. The Saudi Red Sea export outlet in Yanbu will be cut off from most global traffic when the Houthi decide to again close the Red Sea and to stop traffic through Bab el Mandeb.
Saudi export will then be restricted to Suez-sized tankers which can reach Yanbu through the canal without passing Yemen. Any VLCC currently moving into the Read Sea to load in Yanbu will be effectively trapped.
Gershom Trumpstein is really on a meth fueled dementia trip tonight. He must be on the same drugs as the Nazi higher-ups were using. This is the definition of megalomaniacal insanity:
First post on the topic:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
The Courts treat Republicans, and me, so unfairly, always seeming to protect those who should not be protected. They are highly politicized. Cases don’t matter, the Judge does! As an example, how is this absolutely terrible Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome “Too Late” Powell, not even allowed to be investigated for the horrible job he does? How is he allowed to be Billions of Dollars over budget, and years behind schedule, on the simple renovation of the small Federal Reserve Complex in Washington, D.C., where he created an absolute disaster — A money pit, and embarrassment to our Country for the whole World to see! It is a little project that has been under construction for many years. The Contractor on the job, along with Powell, should also be heavily investigated, in that it is impossible for a “professional” to have such enormous Cost Overruns. It is THE HIGHEST PRICED BUILDING, PER SQUARE FOOT, OF ANY PROJECT EVER BUILT, with no end in sight, and may not even be open for many years to come. I strongly criticized Jerome “Too Late” for his horrible performance throughout his tenure, which is either gross incompetence, total dishonesty, or both, and, in return for this well justified criticism, get viciously and wrongfully blamed by, as usual, a Wacky, Nasty, Crooked, and totally Out of Control Judge, named James Boasberg, a man who suffers from the highest level of Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS), and has been “after” my people, and me, for years. The D.C. Circuit eagerly supported the arrest and persecution of innocent Republicans for no crimes at all, but is now preventing even a basic investigation into the gross financial mismanagement of the Federal Reserve. In case after case, Boasberg has displayed open, flagrant, and extreme partisan bias and contempt against Republicans and the Trump Administration. To preserve the integrity of the Judiciary, he should be removed from all cases pertaining to us, and suffer serious disciplinary action, as should numerous other Corrupt Judges that, unfortunately, our Country has had to endure! What Boasberg has done on the “Too Late” Powell case, and many others, has little to do with the Law, and everything to do with Politics. He is exactly what Judges should not be! Boasberg would do better to focus on Justice and Fairness, not his own, and the Democrats’, Political Agenda, which has become LEGENDARY! Much like “prosecutor” Deranged Jack Smith, and many others, Boasberg is a disgrace, as was his predecessor, to our Legal Process, and our Highly Politicized Court System, which was just witnessed firsthand by the unfortunate and unwarranted TARIFF decision, recently handed down by the United States Supreme Court, which was a GIFT to Countries and Companies who have been “ripping off the United States of America,” for decades, at levels never seen before.
Second post:
@realDonaldTrump
The decision that mattered most to me was TARIFFS! The Court knew where I stood, how badly I wanted this Victory for our Country, and instead decided to, potentially, give away Trillions of Dollars to Countries and Companies who have been taking advantage of the United States for decades. Our Supreme Court has made these Countries very happy but, as the Court pointed out, I have the absolute right to charge TARIFFS in another form, and have already started to do so. The Hundreds of Billions of Dollars that our Adversaries want our Country to pay back to others that have disrespected the U.S.A., until I came along, should be marked down, in the eyes of the Public, as just another reason why the United States had been in such major decline — But, not anymore, because we have MADE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN and, very soon, it will be GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE!
I want to thank Justices Alito, Thomas, and Kavanaugh for their Wisdom and Courage pertaining to the TARIFF case, and for understanding, in addition to the Law, that our “Unfriendly Competitors” should not be reimbursed and rewarded for the decades of Damage they have caused THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. I will fight hard to make sure that this does not happen! The Democrats on the Court always “stick together,” no matter how strong a case is put before them — There is rarely even a minor “waver.” But Republicans do not do this. They openly disrespect the Presidents who nominate them to the highest position in the Land, a Justice of the United States Supreme Court, and go out of their way, with bad and wrongful rulings and intentions, to prove how “honest,” “independent,” and “legitimate” they are. The Democrat Justices just vote Democrat — They always stick together! Our Country was unnecessarily RANSACKED by the United States Supreme Court, which has become little more than a weaponized and unjust Political Organization. The sad thing is, they will only get worse! They wouldn’t even call out The Rigged Presidential Election of 2020, because they said that I, as President of the United States, did not have “standing” to challenge it, and now, with time, it has been conclusively proven to be stolen — And look what happened to our wonderful Nation by allowing a grossly incompetent man, Sleepy Joe Biden, to be our “President.” This completely inept and embarrassing Court was not what the Supreme Court of the United States was set up by our wonderful Founders to be. They are hurting our Country, and will continue to do so. All I can do, as President, is call them out for their bad behavior! This statement about the United States Supreme Court will cause me nothing but problems in the future, but I feel it is my obligation to speak the TRUTH. Thank you for your attention to this matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Mar 16 2026 3:35 utc | 952
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